Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

JNV I guess I could see, especially since we are both still alive, but who are his partners between TKN, Ash, Alpha, Neil, and Aeo?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If only we had something like voting and pressure generation to be able to work out potential partners, since JNV has never come under pressure since my C1 vote on them!

Again, I think where I'm at rn is still that the <TKN, Ash, Alpha, JNV> pool is the place to shoot in, and JNV is the most likely candidate to have realised I was pushing V!Devo hard. I have gone back and forth on them but even my re-read notes state two things:

Quote

-I feel less ??? about JNV now. I don't know if it's because I'm tired but reading their posts has stopped screaming at me even as I can't let go of the nagging feeling someone has killed and replaced my Quokka Buddy  

and

Quote

-Literally just said it and JNV's reads feel off again. I...don't know how to play SE anymore, do I. Maybe I should just stop looking at meta and go back to votes until I stabilise.

Aeo is soft excluded IMO. JNV's absence and Aeo's EoD absence is too much risk for them, even with a single teammate left to man the watchtower. There are some JNV/Aeo interactions I want to go back to, e.g.

Quote

I dont know why you feel the need to preface your list of player metas with how youre not trying to bring up player metas like youve been talking about metas for the last few pages you dont need to hide from it

where JNV shades Aeo but later also has a pretty understanding view of her and Archer.

If you buy the reaction test outlier analysis, I'm still back to JNV too.

Alpha's so absent he's just a shrug for me at this point with maybe some meta-game reasoning teammates might ask for a PH rather than endure this but I just don't know. Suppose we just bracket Alpha for now - if he's inactive then he's an endgame problem.

I think JNV could have a partner in E!Araris FWIW, can't recall about whether potentially true with Neil - I think so since I said in a V!Araris world, I could see maximum maybe E!Neil (Coffee?) and some in the quiet tier I am just going to name 4pool at this juncture.

Long story short that's an analysis for any Kas that's not 0550hrs Kas.

Edited to add:

With TKN pushing for Neo and someone else I am just too dead tired to recall, I think TKN could be a shout too.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

 

1. I wanted to C1 him and Aeo threw herself on the cross when I tried so I believe they are paired

I don't think this makes sense. If I were e!Aeo, then I'd rather have e!Ash die and pretend like I didn't have a part in it, since after all, why would any Elim want to make such an obvious connection to their partner? 

That being said, Ash. 

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm back to E!JNV and I think the timing matches better. Not gonna argue with 2 though.

E!JNV and whom?

57 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Aeo had Araris preference then gave up after his survival (why?)

I'm actually not sure. If we're talking about cash vs Araris, I would've said cash was more elimmy, but ultimately I decided "Screw it lucky coin can figure it out"

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Here's my problem. When half of your posts are chaos and elim claims, and half are genuine self defense posts or solving attempts, and there's no clear delineation or admittance that "yeah I'm trolling sometimes, I'm sorry, I'll stop," how on earth can any villager take what's being said seriously? I just literally can't and if she's not going to help she needs to get. If she isn't the SK or a self-sabotaging elim, she's just plain anti-village and more helpful to us dead.

The problem here really is that I'm E!reading Aman for being (rather rationally) annoyed at me, and then Aman is e!reading me back. 

So yes, all things considered, it is fairly annoying. I would rather save farther discussion about it until after the game.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

To be clear, I think self-voting qua self-voting is something Aeo would do regardless of alignment so it's NAI. But under the circumstances, as her teammate, I'd feel deeply uncomfortable, if not put out. I'm struggling to see them go 'you do you queen '. Maybe I'm projecting my discomfort with having been E with Winter here (looooong story), but I kind of think that she'd rein it back just a little or at least have a social incentive to do so in the form of a doc.

SK is a possibility I've been considering, but the Raven kill makes me question.

Edited to add 2:

Sorry, still not clarifying properly. I mean self-voting qua self-voting, she'd do no matter what. But self-voting into a tie (she believed it was a tie, and it was only broken by a Villager) and continuing to lean hard into the chaos streak beyond that?

I agree you can say I'm making a TWTBAW argument and I suppose on some level it washes out as that. I just kind of would like to hope that Aeo wouldn't drive her teammates to drinking like it's a new sacrament, I guess, given her expressed sentiments after MR66.

I was considered reckless as an Elim teammate to Devo and mat (mainly for nearly hammering them each) and I struggle to see how a 1/3/3 (two inactives+Aeo) team with aeo going nuts is going to help team dynamic. Unless you're suggesting that the Elim team is so scattered they aren't even coordinated in doc, I doubt this is the case.

Additionally, whether I would self-vote regardless of alignment is up to debate. In that situation, I self-voted strictly to prevent the death of ash for having IRL stuff. I vehemently oppose exe for inactivity unless it is truely necessary.

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

JNV I guess I could see, especially since we are both still alive, but who are his partners between TKN, Ash, Alpha, Neil, and Aeo?

^I was going to say this. I think I outlined a 1/3/3 team with TKN JNV and either Aman or Neil, moreso Aman, but I have bias don't trust my instincts

One last thing: It might be better to look in a 

<TKN, JNV, Ash> pool since there's a chance labyrinth gets filtered or smth 

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

I should note, had I been on and caught up in time for rollover c2, I almost certainly would have voted Cash. Take that as you will and place as much trust in it's verity as you would like. 

I believe this is true

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

JNV I guess I could see, especially since we are both still alive, but who are his partners between TKN, Ash, Alpha, Neil, and Aeo?

^I was going to say this. I think I outlined a 1/3/3 team with TKN JNV and either Aman or Neil, moreso Aman, but I have bias don't trust my instincts

Don't mind me but my response to that is legit some flavour of:

"Maybe make that the problem of someone else other than the guy who spent 5+ hours crunching out analysis trying to even ID one Elim?  "

Which I'm pretty sure y'all weren't going to anyway, as it's probably more rhetorical, and I'm just poking fun at you guys  

@Amanuensis - My point is I sorta recall JNV/Aeo interactions D1 for you to read if you wanna ISO JNV. I'm really just too tired for it right now and I think just re-pivoting us back to 4pool is already Work Done on my part so someone else can take it from here while I get some sanity recovering sleep

That being said, it's difficult to work with with a small pool and my instinct is Aeo is probably not a good JNV partner.

Which brings us back to 4pool + Neil/Araris but not both.

Agree there might be an Araris preclusion but he's just stabvoting JNV so I don't feel it's a strong one. You could argue JNV would not have left Araris in the lurch but given stated RL busy, IDK how strong that is.

I do read Coffee as Village but if I'm wrong, maybe Coffee hell knows.

TKN's pushing outside of 4pool makes me think he could be a partner FWIW.

Ash isn't giving us anything to work with so I don't oppose pressure on Ash on principle but if our priority is to see red in the write-up, I currently feel JNV is the best route forward. Open to thoughts, comments, objections.

[Coffeecat she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Interested how Coffee knows Araris is supposed to be a strong lategame player if he hasn't played for quite a while?

Araris was always a strong player, as far as I know.

 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

see Coffee's language is once again hedgy.

I'm a usually hedgy player, for now I guess you might have to get used to it for now maybe

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

-I actually like this comment from Coffee. It feels very light-hearted, despite the suspicion, and playful.

Well it's a game right?

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Coffee has been fixated on Araris and I

;-; I'm really not fixed I just haven't seen fit to change my vote from araris to anyone else. As for you, I just think you are chulldunging about being Brandon, although you might be village

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Well it's a game right?

I think there are Elim players who would have less playful a reaction - it's one of the reasons I lean Village on you, next to the Aman push!

Anyway sorry was editing in during Coffee's intervention so here goes:

I suppose to press the point a bit more: yesterday, Aman was asking who E!Araris teammates were. Neil hasn't really faced substantive pressure yet. Without pressure, I'd argue IDing teammates is hard. Maybe you guys can do it, but again, I am first and foremost a vote analyst by inclination which is probably why I'm more bearish on E!Aeo than most - that D1 EoD doesn't look right to me in a V/E world. 

I would argue that if there is even a double Elim presence in 4pool (and not say, triple, which would be possible but also unideal), the fact that Ash and Alpha barely have a pulse would strongly interfere with our ability to ID them. Again, almost none of them have come under serious threat. There was a double vote on JNV for a short while on D1, and one on Ash, but I don't know how much credence to give those given the dominance of the Archer and Aeo trains - these mostly flipped Village with the exception of Araris, but that's very little pressure which doesn't demand much of a visible response analysis can pick up. I don't think connectives strongly help here - I think we have to fall back on reads/post analysis.

Happy if anyone stronger in those areas can correct me.

tldr;

"who are E!JNV's teammates?"

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add:

7 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

;-; I'm really not fixed I just haven't seen fit to change my vote from araris to anyone else. As for you, I just think you are chulldunging about being Brandon, although you might be village

Tbh I am actually willing to believe he's BranAman Sanderson, considering some of the drek he's pulled. But if not, I lowkey hope someone in 4pool is BS, because that'd help us with sorting the pool just a bit more.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

I can probably figure out e!JNV teams when I have time 

Tentatively TKN I say is a prime partner, maybe Coffee

[Kasimir he/him]

@Amanuensis - I am fully prepared FWIW to be called kayana or tripping as I am concerned I am deathtunnelling JNV here. I am aware of the JNV inactivity meta argument, I just feel the vote analysis has taken me here and the NKA has sliced it to this point. I'm willing to agree about TKN's natural kill meta so it must be being suppressed by someone.

Recognise that this is just rehashing everything I've said but I was concerned I was overstating my confidence level. I guess I have moderate credences but also doubts.

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

I can probably figure out e!JNV teams when I have time 

[Aeoryi she/her]

Boy oh boy jNV does not have a lot of content that's anywhere close to AI.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Boy oh boy jNV does not have a lot of content that's anywhere close to AI.

I still think they're overcredencing on you and Archer FWIW. It's odd to be voting a player for actually improving which was why I was so torn C1, but I cannot not go back and see it as a weird post.

Yes shhh judgy people I might as well get to eat and take a break and mourn my sleep schedule.

[Aeoryi she/her]

21 hours ago, JNV said:

Im not done with my reread catchup but I just want to say shes been doing it since C1 and by it I mean strongly implying shes an elim so like this is the sort of chaosplay Ive been trying to say eyah village Aeoryi but like all the alarm bells have been always ringing at this point Im thinking of cutting the power to the alarm bells theyre obviously not doing their job so like what Im trying to say is Im down to vote Aeoryi any day of the week but it probably wont stay there after I finish my reread catch up this is mostly for fun

"by it I mean strongly implying shes an Elim" - @JNV- I would love to see those implications. If you're referring to me using the words "Elim TMI" instead of "Gut" you would be right, but that's basically a joke and NAI.

"I'm thinking of cutting the power to the alarm bells they're obviously not doing their job" - strange that they continue to say:

"So like what I'm trying to say is I'm down to vote Aeoryi any day if the week" - don't think I got that impression from the post ngl

"It probably won't stay there after I finish my reread catch up this is mostly for fun" - okay

Prime example of NAI JNV posts

[Kasimir he/him]

Just to reiterate my current stance for people:

No more than one in <Neil, Araris>, up to three in <Alpha, Ash, TKN, JNV>

If I'm mistaken, probably throw Coffee back in but remove Araris. I could see it in the vicinity of <Ash, JNV, Coffee> instead as Neil is actually one of my SK candidates due to the Raven kill issue. It's weakly defeated by the fact Neil didn't know the SK rules but I don't fully know how to feel about derpclears.

I don't strongly believe there's much content to use for connectives because:

A. No substantive pressure, which doesn't require too much in response (this is prior to ISO/rereads, so sue me)

B. Problem with chronic inactives is that while we can probably get something off TKN, Ash and Alpha are 90% just not there. If you believe they could be E, you just have to accept it. I agree that's ugly and unsatisfying as a solution, but if not, we stare back at the "But who is Araris's teammate?" hell, which we have also agreed not only lacks satisfying solutions, but still points us back to 4pool anyway! So if you are being forced to grapple with 4pool, why not do it now rather than at lylo when we have less room to be wrong?

C. Not really a point but it addresses Araris's question of why the Elims are dgaf about train kills and potential exposure.

I guess I'm just pushing because I feel like people right now are sort of focused on the people with content, and I think if your Elims are partially or substantively in those who have neither faced pressure nor produced content, then you can't get much out of it because you can't analyse an absence. Not very well anyway.

tldr; pressure in 4pool good, pressure on all the slots good, can we please aim to avoid lylo, if not, then go into lylo in a position of strength so less ocrap from us then.

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Prime example of NAI JNV posts

I don't see that as NAI tbh. It's causing me some concern.

[Aeoryi she/her]

JNV

 Apply pressure 

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Just to reiterate my current stance for people:

No more than one in <Neil, Araris>, up to three in <Alpha, Ash, TKN, JNV>

If I'm mistaken, probably throw Coffee back in but remove Araris. I could see it in the vicinity of <Ash, JNV, Coffee> instead as Neil is actually one of my SK candidates due to the Raven kill issue. It's weakly defeated by the fact Neil didn't know the SK rules but I don't fully know how to feel about derpclears.

I don't strongly believe there's much content to use for connectives because:

A. No substantive pressure, which doesn't require too much in response (this is prior to ISO/rereads, so sue me)

B. Problem with chronic inactives is that while we can probably get something off TKN, Ash and Alpha are 90% just not there. If you believe they could be E, you just have to accept it. I agree that's ugly and unsatisfying as a solution, but if not, we stare back at the "But who is Araris's teammate?" hell, which we have also agreed not only lacks satisfying solutions, but still points us back to 4pool anyway! So if you are being forced to grapple with 4pool, why not do it now rather than at lylo when we have less room to be wrong?

C. Not really a point but it addresses Araris's question of why the Elims are dgaf about train kills and potential exposure.

I guess I'm just pushing because I feel like people right now are sort of focused on the people with content, and I think if your Elims are partially or substantively in those who have neither faced pressure nor produced content, then you can't get much out of it because you can't analyse an absence. Not very well anyway.

tldr; pressure in 4pool good, pressure on all the slots good, can we please aim to avoid lylo, if not, then go into lylo in a position of strength so less ocrap from us then.

I don't see that as NAI tbh. It's causing me some concern.

It just has a LOT of caveats. Not sure if that's a normal e!JNV thing.

[Kasimir he/him]

I'm going to stop saying more about this. I think there's a non-zero chance I'm just tired and tripping and part of me is quietly terrified I'm just screwing us over further with each sentence >> 

NoSleep Kas is bad.

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

It just has a LOT of caveats. Not sure if that's a normal e!JNV thing.

It's more that I usually see them tripped up by you and TKN. Again, it's rough to say (since it washes out as a "you are normally a bit more blood for the blood god" argument) but they're being oddly understanding of you and TKN. I have PMed them in multiple games (I can't recall, to be fair, wrt their views on you so if you have the time/energy, go look at some past games not LG98 and see what they say about you specifically) and I feel they're more tripped up by you/TKN normally.

With TKN it's more an absence to be sure, but TKN has admittedly not been really present, so it is what it is.

Edited to add:

@Ookla the Resolute Hey Aeo actually can you do me a favour if you have time/energy? Go look at LG97 and track what JNV says about you and TKN.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I'm going to stop saying more about this. I think there's a non-zero chance I'm just tired and tripping and part of me is quietly terrified I'm just screwing us over further with each sentence >> 

NoSleep Kas is bad.

It's more that I usually see them tripped up by you and TKN. Again, it's rough to say (since it washes out as a "you are normally a bit more blood for the blood god" argument) but they're being oddly understanding of you and TKN. I have PMed them in multiple games (I can't recall, to be fair, wrt their views on you so if you have the time/energy, go look at some past games not LG98 and see what they say about you specifically) and I feel they're more tripped up by you/TKN normally.

With TKN it's more an absence to be sure, but TKN has admittedly not been really present, so it is what it is.

Wait. 

Okay yes definitely I'm voting JNV for meta reasons. If you read over LG97, you'll notice it.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Okay yes definitely I'm voting JNV for meta reasons. If you read over LG97, you'll notice it.

?

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add:

@Ookla the Resolute Hey Aeo actually can you do me a favour if you have time/energy? Go look at LG97 and track what JNV says about you and TKN.

Should I be concerned that Aeo and I are apparently mindmelding all of a sudden >>

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

?

Should I be concerned that Aeo and I are apparently mindmelding all of a sudden >>

Basically, (a lot of this took place in PM) JNV and I had a PM where they were very nice and very understanding. TKN in particular was also pretty nice but that'l might be because you know, unexeable elims.

They at one point brought up a meta comment about how e!JNV is more active than v!JNV and they were trying to change that, and Yeah. 

EDIT? 

also, i think you mentioned that they were relatively kind when Elim in regards to the NK

ED2T?

E!JNV had a lots of caveats especially in regards to Elim teams in our PM.

I just love the part where he basically asks if the elims being unkillable and having a day kill is fair and I say no lol

How is JNV normally in PMs?

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

How is JNV normally in PMs?

I wish I could describe it but I uh, have a habit of deleting all my PMs after a game. I might have some archived JNV ones from our more extensive games, I'll take a look after I wake up. 

I'm afraid all I can give everyone is the unsatisfactory answer, "I know what they are normally like when I see it." 

Edited to add:

Tbh the last time I was V opposite E!JNV was LG84, as far as I can recall. That didn't have PMs so I have no real basis for comparison. I just know that they're, in Bladerunner 2049 parlance, "off baseline." This is why I was so frustrated C1 when I didn't know how to explain it.

Edited to add 2:

20 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

I just love the part where he basically asks if the elims being unkillable and having a day kill is fair and I say no lol

Psst. JNV is exclusively they/them.

Edited to add 3:

20 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

also, i think you mentioned that they were relatively kind when Elim in regards to the NK

In LG97's Elim doc, they directly confirm their NK doctrine would exclude Raven. (Not Raven as in Raven specifically but they sort out the players who are no gos.)

Edited to add 4:

Put it this way - 80% of the time when I'm asking JNV for a read in early game, they tell me they think TKN is Evil and admit they always think so but they can't help thinking it. This is what I mean by oddly understanding. I'm used to JNV getting tripped up by stuff. They'll admit it, admit in a self-aware way it might just be them, but also affirm they kind of just have that read. So that's one thing. The lacuna here is also interesting to me - they're avoiding giving a stance on TKN and this is in spite of me deliberately seeking to engage TKN to get more out of him and I wanna see if LG97 is that way too.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

Hi coffee I see you lurking

[Coffeecat she/her]

Hi hi, don't have much to add except to the SK PLEASE GET AN ELIM.

 

[Mat he/him]

Please welcome Illwei @Ooklil the Wei into the game, who will be replacing TheOokla929 / TheAlpha929

I'll post a VC once I get caught up.

[Aeoryi she/her]

3 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Hi hi, don't have much to add except to the SK PLEASE GET AN ELIM.

 

Why don't you vote for an Elim 

 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Destined said:

Please welcome Illwei @Ooklil the Wei into the game, who will be replacing TheOokla929 / TheAlpha929

I'll post a VC once I get caught up.

You mean once I fix Tallybot

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

You mean once I fix Tallybot

You mean if you fix tallybot instead of sleeping at a rational time

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You mean once I fix Tallybot

Aren't you always saying that tallybot shouldn't be a crutch, just a handhold

My VC is:

• Araris Valerian/Pookla (1): Coffeecat
• TheAlpha/Ookla929 / Illwei/Ooklil (1): neil the beguiled
• Aeoryi/Resolute (1): JNV
• JNV (3): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Kasimir, Aeoryi/Resolute
• neil the beguiled (1): The Known Novel/Bald
• Ashbringer (1): Amanuensis

But if/when that's discovered to be wrong, I'd like to know, please >>

Or just tell me when tallybot is back I like my handhold very much ;-;

[Coffeecat she/her]

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Why don't you vote for an Elim 

Are you confident then that Araris is village?