Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, JNV said:

Im not done with my reread catchup but I just want to say shes been doing it since C1 and by it I mean strongly implying shes an elim so like this is the sort of chaosplay Ive been trying to say eyah village Aeoryi but like all the alarm bells have been always ringing at this point Im thinking of cutting the power to the alarm bells theyre obviously not doing their job so like what Im trying to say is Im down to vote Aeoryi any day of the week but it probably wont stay there after I finish my reread catch up this is mostly for fun

Only strongly implying

Then what's this:

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

I am slightly less confident now

EDIT

My Elim TMI is telling me otherwise 

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

I slep now. G'night friends

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I slep now. G'night friends

Btw Kas and Aman are my Elim teammates totally and this is an intentional distancing tactic

Ash

MY Elim TMI is telling me to vote ash

[neil the beguiled]

meow...

edit

idk why i did that srz

edit

its so lonely i see the lurking.

Edited December 16, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, neil the beguiled said:

meow...

Hello

Cannot do my VCA now that the threads have been merged but it is fine

2 hours ago, JNV said:

Im not done with my reread catchup but I just want to say shes been doing it since C1 and by it I mean strongly implying shes an elim so like this is the sort of chaosplay Ive been trying to say eyah village Aeoryi but like all the alarm bells have been always ringing at this point Im thinking of cutting the power to the alarm bells theyre obviously not doing their job so like what Im trying to say is Im down to vote Aeoryi any day of the week but it probably wont stay there after I finish my reread catch up this is mostly for fun

Hmmm. Well, if I get lynched at least I've had a consistent v game to fit with my e games. I'm going to take what TKN told me a while back and do what I feel is the most fun for me, and eventually people will realize that it's normal.

Araris

HMmm

Okay ykw I'm just thinking here

Spoiler

1. Labyrinth has not been very active. He has, however, been reading the thread. This has been seen before, but rarely. 

2. JNV and TKN have both been reading the thread a significant amount. I would say don't underestimate JNV, since they mainly seem to be cleared for meta reasons and are godly at Elim since they can seem so innocent. TKN has the C3 rule. Gotta ask what that means.

3. Ash has irl stuff and barely is keeping up with the thread. Don't think he's going Dingo, could be wrong, but don't think it is the case.

4. Coffeecat has started to speak up after their lurking C1 and parts of C2. Don't know if I like this change.

If e!coffee then that means an Elim was in trouble c2, and required more backup. I still think Araris could've been that Elim in trouble. Or maybe TKN. Hmmmm. Both had some pressure.

 

5. Some vote analysis 

Arguably, coffee did vote on Araris EoD which put him into danger. So Araris-Coffee not e/e? There was also definitely not two elims on Araris if e!Araris. That means Neil-Coffee-Araris not e/e/e

Let's take a look at the cash voters: Wiz, Devo, Araris, Aman

Wizard and Devo both are village. The thing is, if Araris and Aman are e/e, then it's unlikely coffee or Neil are going to be that last Elim

[This deals with a e!Aman e!Araris world] Which means that it's likely to be one of these:

Ash JNV TKN Labyrinth 

I can see e!Aman voting Cash to save e!Araris, and Araris voting on Cash is NAI, but basically:

If my memory serves me right, Labyrinth was not on EoD. That could make sense in a:

Araris/Aman/Labyrinth team.

They didn't have the horsepower to gun for that cash exe since labyrinth was offline, so they went for the tie instead. But then again, Aman and Araris aren't necessarily e/e. They could be e/v or v/e or v/e. Out of all of these, I think a e!Aman + v!Araris makes the least sense based on Aman's motives.

But what if it was JNV?

Araris/Aman/JNV team:

Same thing with labyrinth, except that JNV has more strikes against than labyrinth. The only real reason why they're read v atm is because of the meta reads, and JNV themselves have acknowledged that they are busy, so that might throw the meta read a bit off course. 

Araris/Aman/Ash team:

Now here's the thing I don't see: Ash and Aman and Ash and Araris haven't really interacted. They don't really have any connections. I mean, that team is theoretically possible, but it would really mean that e!Aman and e!Araris have just given up on their last e partner and left ash to go alone. Unlikely, so I can say: Ash/Aman/Araris not e/e/e

Araris/Aman/TKN team:

Now here's something I could see. TKN has been relatively active enough that I could see them more active in the doc. Of course, they have mentioned they've just been reading the thread. I don't know if TKN was on EoD (I can't check either) but if anyone recalls that could be nice.

6. Something feels out of place.

Where are our elims?

Let's make a player list:

Kas, Aeoryi, Neil, Aman, Araris, TKN, JNV, Labyrinth, Ash

Now let's take Kas out, since he's Kas. And myself, since I'm Aeoryi (which is slightly below Kas)

Neil, Coffee, Aman, Araris, TKN, JNV, Labyrinth, Ash.

Now, what are our teams we no ARE NOT existing?

Spoiler

1. Labyrinth, JNV, TKN team. Doesn't have enough thread influence to really be an Elim team. Possible, but they'd have to be playing super well.

2. Ash, Aman, Araris team 

3. Coffee, Araris, Neil team

4. Any team with only TKN, JNV Coffee, Ash, and Labyrinth, barring TKN-JNV/Ash-Coffee on an insanely lucky day.

That didn't get far. Basically, we can divide the list into:

1. Active anchor: Aman, Neil (myself would fit here), 

2. Semi-active backup: Araris, Coffee.

3. Inactives: Labyrinth, JNV, TKN, Ash

Let's work backwards:

We know a team of 3/3/3 isn't happening. 2/3/3 could be possible, but unlikely in my eyes. Only a Araris/TKN(+JNV)/3 would work in my eyes, and still doesn't have significant anchorage to the thread to really have influence there.

A 2/2/3 team is improbable, due to the fact that Coffee wouldn't have voted e!Araris and tied it knowing their teammy wouldn't be online.

So we have some options here:

1/1/2. Neil and Aman. Coffee would be the third Elim here, since Neil and Araris aren't e/e. This is a team possibility worthy to consider. I do think we're underestimating Neil's e!play, so do NOT overlook.

1/1/3. Neil and Aman again, with a side of an inactive. This would probably be strange, but also possible. But then also, Ash/Neil/Aman doesn't make sense (my Elim TMI instincts tell me so) due to the connection thing with ash from earlier (upon farther review, scratch that. Aman and Neil definitely have the firepower to deal with inactive!Ash). All other teams with 1/1/3 are on the table.

1/2/3. Either Niel or Aman with a side of Coffee or Araris (Coffee is Niel, either if Aman). I've already outlined potential e!Araris e!Aman teams. 

Neil+Coffee+Labyrinth doesn't seem to have too much influence. Less likely. Same thing with Neil+Coffee+inactive. Just doesn't have the anchorage, I think.

Aman+Coffee+inactive (besides ash imo). Aman+Coffee+Labyrinth also seems to lack the anchorage, but not so much as Neil with the other two.

1/2/2 isn't happening due to the coffee and Araris thing going on. Especially since they were all around about EoD so that means that there is probably no way coffee votes Araris when a vote on me is just a justified.

1/3/3. It would have to be Aman, in my opinion, who would need the anchor there. Elim teams with Neil are just quite a fair bit less probable. 

Aman+TKN+JNV might be a team worth looking at.

Aman+JNV+Labyrinth doesn't have the thread influence. 

Aman+JNV+Ash just makes them seem very disconnected

Aman+Ash+Labyrinth is just not... It's not happening.

Aman+TKN+Labyrinth is a maybe? Just doesn't make sense in the same way that JNV+Labyrinth doesn't make sense.

That being said, I will list the Neil teams out here (or at least the ones that don't make sense)

Neil+TKN+JNV remains a prime option

Neil+TKN+Labyrinth not happening. Same with:

Neil+TKN+Ash 

Neil+JNV+Ash has the same problem as the Aman+JNV+Ash.

Neil+Labyrinth+Ash... No. No. I refuse to believe.

So basically, only a JNV+TKN+Active is probable in my mind. We've seen TKN and JNV work before. We know they can fly under the radar. Watch out.

Anyways: 

Aman+Neil+Coffee potential team

Aman+Araris+Lesser active potential team

Aman+Neil+Lesser active 

Aman/Neil+JNV+TKN

Summary:

Spoiler

Inactives have to post more.

Araris-Coffee likely not e/e

Araris-Neil likely not e/e

There is no way that Araris-Neil-Coffee are e/e/e

Araris-Aman potential e/e

Araris-Aman-Ash not e/e/e

Slightly Unlikely v!Araris-e!Aman-e!Labyrinth

Actually Go read the entire post where I outline every single possible (and improbable Elim team) you lazy cat

@Kasimir What is the C3 rule with TKN? 

@Amanuensis What's your read on JNV and why?

@neil the beguiled How much influence do you think the Elim team is holding over the thread?

@Ashbringer. You're the NKA guy. Please decipher this riddle that has been left at the start of the cycle. If you have time, at least.

I'm going to ISO Aman, probably, or maybe Neil if I still don't come to a conclusion. 

[neil the beguiled]

^^ i assume the c3 rule is similar to the halfway rule; p much like. dont touch this player till later game because theyre either a strong town who's a likely nk, and only after so long shoulkd you start to suspect/tinfoil them

uhm... honestly i kinda feel as if elims have been low profile, especially with how the last 2 cycles and suspicions have gone, it feels more like town eating our own heads than a mafia controlled gamestate? i feel like both eod eliminations have felt kind of distant almost? er. idk. it feels almost as if we're just twiddling our thumbs trying and keep drawing up blanks.

i read your elim team post, i think ill give some actual thoughts on it later (also like wow i do not have the energy rn to do those sorts of things atm ;_; tqvm). i kinda wanna see if my science leads to anything tbh.

uhm, otherwise, whats your read on JNV there...? esp given the tunnel on you for the past few cycles. why do you keep just... brushing it off? (for lack of better terms)

edit:

i finsihed one of my finals today and i can finally catch up on sleep too ill see yalls  tmrw

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Aeoryi she/her]

13 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

^^ i assume the c3 rule is similar to the halfway rule; p much like. dont touch this player till later game because theyre either a strong town who's a likely nk, and only after so long shoulkd you start to suspect/tinfoil them

uhm... honestly i kinda feel as if elims have been low profile, especially with how the last 2 cycles and suspicions have gone, it feels more like town eating our own heads than a mafia controlled gamestate? i feel like both eod eliminations have felt kind of distant almost? er. idk. it feels almost as if we're just twiddling our thumbs trying and keep drawing up blanks.

i read your elim team post, i think ill give some actual thoughts on it later (also like wow i do not have the energy rn to do those sorts of things atm ;_; tqvm). i kinda wanna see if my science leads to anything tbh.

uhm, otherwise, whats your read on JNV there...? esp given the tunnel on you for the past few cycles. why do you keep just... brushing it off? (for lack of better terms)

edit:

i finsihed one of my finals today and i can finally catch up on sleep too ill see yalls  tmrw

 

My read on JNV is that I really need to reevaluate them. E!JNV is very sneaky. I think the N1 kill didn't really match their MO but I could be wrong.

Also, I remember them being sussed C1 by Kas (I sheeped his vote there, I think). I need to go recheck the posts and actually come up with a conclusion.

You do have a point about that though, but I really... Hmm

Inactivity as an Elim strat is generally frowned upon as it's not very fair to others, but now that I think of it, a similar thing happened in LG97. We killed all the talkers (including mat) and then D4 was just silence. (Oh yeah, and the elims legit couldn't be exe'd in that game). JNV was elim there, and they basically pocketed everyone but Araris, myself and mat included (Araris gots NKd or Exe'd at some point). That's what I'm basing my e!JNV meta read off of mainly.

So the entire thing that I spent an hour on figuring which Elim teams and which aren't was pointless

(Congratulations on finishing your final btw)

[Kasimir he/him]

Congrats on the final neil, get some good rest! I'm going back to sleep myself 

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Congrats on the final neil, get some good rest! I'm going back to sleep myself 

Sleep well

Why does meaningful analysis actually only come out of me under significant pressure lol

[neil the beguiled]

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

My read on JNV is that I really need to reevaluate them. E!JNV is very sneaky. I think the N1 kill didn't really match their MO but I could be wrong.

Also, I remember them being sussed C1 by Kas (I sheeped his vote there, I think). I need to go recheck the posts and actually come up with a conclusion.

You do have a point about that though, but I really... Hmm

Inactivity as an Elim strat is generally frowned upon as it's not very fair to others, but now that I think of it, a similar thing happened in LG97. We killed all the talkers (including mat) and then D4 was just silence. (Oh yeah, and the elims legit couldn't be exe'd in that game). JNV was elim there, and they basically pocketed everyone but Araris, myself and mat included (Araris gots NKd or Exe'd at some point). That's what I'm basing my e!JNV meta read off of mainly.

So the entire thing that I spent an hour on figuring which Elim teams and which aren't was pointless

(Congratulations on finishing your final btw)

ah yeah, fair

i dont think that was pointless at all tbh, like. im just one person- this is a game abt collaboration. sorry if i made u feel otherwise >.<

im obviously kinda biased to think theres more in the less active ppl bc when i have spoken with like... you and aman and kas it felt very pure and im reluctant to push there when i think theres better findings elsewhere. but also i dont rlly do full teambuilding like that often at this stage- normally i make like. "not paired" reads and come back to them once we get a redflip which is...  haltered here.

but also thats a fair point, i dont know if ppl are intentionally trying to be inactive though, regardless of alignment. ( tho i tend to avoid thread as maf too so >.>)

EDIT

I FORGOT TO SAY ty ty aeo ty kas

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Kasimir he/him]

25 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

uhm... honestly i kinda feel as if elims have been low profile, especially with how the last 2 cycles and suspicions have gone, it feels more like town eating our own heads than a mafia controlled gamestate? i feel like both eod eliminations have felt kind of distant almost? er. idk. it feels almost as if we're just twiddling our thumbs trying and keep drawing up blanks.

Ngl it's giving me PTSD flashbacks to a game in which I was a bulletproof town cop (Thug Seeker for SE folks) and every single lead suspect flipped/scanned Village and I was actively questioning my reality when my last ditch suspect also scanned town.

"Mr GM sir...are you suuuuuure "

"omfg why"

"I can't mafia anymore"

"ffs I'm quitting mafia for life"

flashbacks. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

11 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

ah yeah, fair

i dont think that was pointless at all tbh, like. im just one person- this is a game abt collaboration. sorry if i made u feel otherwise >.<

im obviously kinda biased to think theres more in the less active ppl bc when i have spoken with like... you and aman and kas it felt very pure and im reluctant to push there when i think theres better findings elsewhere. but also i dont rlly do full teambuilding like that often at this stage- normally i make like. "not paired" reads and come back to them once we get a redflip which is...  haltered here.

but also thats a fair point, i dont know if ppl are intentionally trying to be inactive though, regardless of alignment. ( tho i tend to avoid thread as maf too so >.>)

 

Where do you sit with Araris and Coffee? If I may ask

EDIT:

GOOD NIGHT SEers 

Don't train me while I'm gone

[Araris Valerian he/him]

46 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

uhm... honestly i kinda feel as if elims have been low profile, especially with how the last 2 cycles and suspicions have gone, it feels more like town eating our own heads than a mafia controlled gamestate? i feel like both eod eliminations have felt kind of distant almost? er. idk. it feels almost as if we're just twiddling our thumbs trying and keep drawing up blanks.

On the one hand, I totally agree. On the other, anytime someone brings this up I get a little worried that they are elim trying to get themselves or a teammate out of the spotlight. Definitely have used this as an elim tactic before.

Definitely won't hurt to pressure some of the quite folks at the start of this cycle. Maybe JNV to start. Haven't really read what they (haven't) said.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 hours ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

On the one hand, I totally agree. On the other, anytime someone brings this up I get a little worried that they are elim trying to get themselves or a teammate out of the spotlight. Definitely have used this as an elim tactic before.

It's the opposite for me, but with House Urbain goggles. I'm concerned that paranoia just leads to unnecessary Village-on-Village violence which I'd typically like to avoid. But there's the usual "maybe it's time to rethink" consideration as well.

Edited to add:

Here's the current Tallybot tally. As it turns out, I was so tired I forgot I already made sure the regex accepts Labyrinth as a valid vote. Rather, Tallybot's failure earlier just came from the fact it was still pulling from C2 and the C2 URL no longer existed because I don't edit code on mobile

Quote

Vote Tally
Aeoryi (3): Amanuensis, JNV, Kasimir
Araris Valerian (2): Coffeecat, Ookla the Resolute
JNV (1): Winnie the Pookla
TheOokla929 (1): neil the beguiled

Pls no one blame @neil the beguiled here he is exonerated his science experiment just proved i need more user instructions on tallybot (j/k Mat  Sorry I forgot to swap the URL pulls before switching off my PC.)

Edited to add 2:

I'm still not convinced it was just a low profile or a voter shot. It's inescapable to me that the two shot were just beginning to get some V read status but also not high profile (well depends on your view of Wiz I guess.) This points to me to the fact that the MO has shifted a little but also that train didn't come into it.

I guess it's possible Wiz was the SK shot in response to calls for a Wiz shot:

It does really seem to indicate the likely Elim activity window though, even with regard to Devo.

@Amanuensis Something I admit has been bothering me. Why were you so bearish on Devo in particular? Sure, I agree there are uncertainties there but Devo felt pretty slam-dunk after the Ravenclaw issue.

Edited to add 3:

You also say:

Quote

My Araris thing is I wonder if he's writing me off as V too quickly. It's nice but I'm always cautious of getting v read easily

I think my question is: why aren't you as bothered by the fact I just committed to V!you after the BrandAman Sanderson claim?

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Coffeecat she/her]

Hello after a good night sleep I'M STILL HALLUCINATING HELPPPP 

 

why is aeoryi just so unfazed by the train going on into them? Why are there no red flips yet? Why is kas back? Shouldn't you be still sleeping idk. This whole thing is making me question my reality. Would be really funny if the evil team was just kas and aman and idk who else but yeah.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

Hello after a good night sleep I'M STILL HALLUCINATING HELPPPP 

 

why is aeoryi just so unfazed by the train going on into them? Why are there no red flips yet? Why is kas back? Shouldn't you be still sleeping idk. This whole thing is making me question my reality. Would be really funny if the evil team was just kas and aman and idk who else but yeah.

I'm trying to brute force my sleep schedule. I'd rather see if I can be tired enough to sleep in half an hour or so and then synch to when thread is more active to exchange thoughts with people which is less demanding than trying to slug it out with rereading in my current state. Also I have an upcoming game I'm GMing and my co-GM and I still have to finalise arrangements. Just schedule tetris mostly.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir
justification

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Amanuensis Something I admit has been bothering me. Why were you so bearish on Devo in particular? Sure, I agree there are uncertainties there but Devo felt pretty slam-dunk after the Ravenclaw issue.

I didn't understand the Ravenclaw issue and how it related to Devo. I also had no grounds to read Devo any which way, so was exploring your read for clarity. Which is why my read pyramid went from

Quote

Brandon, Kas
Neil, Aeoyri
Wizard, Araris, TKN, Ash, Devo
JNV, Coffee, Cash, Alpha

Probably Village, Sorta Seems Village, The Danger Zone, Just Kinda Here I Guess.

to

Quote

 

Brandon, Kas
Neil, Aeoyri, Wizard
Devo, TKN, Ash, Cash, Araris
Coffee, JNV, Alpha

Probably Village, Sorta Seems Village, The Danger Zone, Just Kinda Here I Guess.

 

I wasn't quite willing to place Devo in SSV because the categories are my personal reads, of which I had none of Devo, so I pushed her to the far left (lowest priority) as a result of yours.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I think my question is: why aren't you as bothered by the fact I just committed to V!you after the BrandAman Sanderson claim?

Unlike Araris, I had reasons to v-read you  

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I didn't understand the Ravenclaw issue and how it related to Devo. I also had no grounds to read Devo any which way, so was exploring your read for clarity. Which is why my read pyramid went from

to

I wasn't quite willing to place Devo in SSV because the categories are my personal reads, of which I had none of Devo, so I pushed her to the far left (lowest priority) as a result of yours.

Unlike Araris, I had reasons to v-read you  

Once again proving the TJ lesson true: better to ask than just start sitting there channelling my inner Paranoid Threnody Ash

8 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

^^ i assume the c3 rule is similar to the halfway rule; p much like. dont touch this player till later game because theyre either a strong town who's a likely nk, and only after so long shoulkd you start to suspect/tinfoil them

It's just that TKN tends to be LHF/ML bait. Or used to be pretty early on, IDK now. And we used to keep CCing him quite a few times before figuring out that he tends to be slower to produce readable material. The rule of thumb is that you can read him after C3 but not before (not often anyway. The Mat and I read thing was weird last QF.) So in general if you know he's readable and can get there, why not give him time?

Oh yeah sorry I think Aeo asked my bad. @Ookla the Resolute

8 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

uhm... honestly i kinda feel as if elims have been low profile, especially with how the last 2 cycles and suspicions have gone, it feels more like town eating our own heads than a mafia controlled gamestate? i feel like both eod eliminations have felt kind of distant almost? er. idk. it feels almost as if we're just twiddling our thumbs trying and keep drawing up blanks.

But it takes me back to where the kills are falling.

Look at C1-early C2: you and Aman respectively start building a towncore. That's more or less a gauntlet to the Elims: if the towncore isn't chipped off, we pressure them via the PoE.

They start with a low info kill. Ok, fair enough - this isn't glaringly odd for SE meta.

But then we come to C3 and they're still low info killing. While I was strongly willing to V!read Devo, I accept Aman didn't fully share the read as it's a personal read, but he had Wiz in SSV near the end. So what am I supposed to think? Why is towncore inviolate? Is there a reason they're not trying to snipe you or Aeo? 

Because:

13 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I’m honestly surprised they didn’t hit me. I was unprotected. I’m a man of my word.

But that does imply they either believe I’m Brandon but self-protected (I’m not that selfish), or they thought if I’m PR shielding, there’s a good chance the (fake) real Brandon would protect me. It also seems they avoided you too, maybe because of the 50/50 odds of me honestly targeting you (which I did, you’re welcome). I’m certain there’s something we can glean from there.

I'm back to this. I've played V!Aman with such a gambit before as E and I think our solution was to not hit him or his target (I think? Legit need to recheck the details sorry.) Let's suppose the Elims decide they don't want to play IKYK squats with Aman and stay off Aman and me. There's still killing you or Aeo. 

If y'all are suggesting the Elims are all in the low actives or quiets...I could see that. @Amanuensis QF64, remember? We self-cannibalised so hard.

But at the same time, the trade-off of that profile is that you have to hope the talkative, noisy Village players aren't going to close ranks and pressure you. Because you are low profile which means you simply can't control for that.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

16 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Unironically content to let the vote rand (technically again) so I feel less guilty if Araris flips green  I’m also down for a flashwagon but with TKN, Ash, and Alpha all getting a consensus “Wait until C3” pass, I’m not sure we’re left with any great option

I realize it's mostly irrelevant now, but I don't care if you exe me before c3. If you gotta you gotta, but I do kick into gear right about now.

So, I very much do not disagree with the Aeoryi exe, but for the sake of diversity, I'd like to float the idea of a potential Neil train.

It is seeming more likely that at least one of the trusted few is unworthy of trust. Neil also fits my model for an SK, so I think this a case where interests kind of overlap. 

I'd also be happy with Aeoryi, but I think she's slightly less likely to be SK, and either the same or less likely to be elim. Plus she's got a good number of votes already from what I've seen.

I'll try to be around to discuss some more today, but it might be awhile. I should be around a ton tomorrow though. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Ookla the Bald

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

It is seeming more likely that at least one of the trusted few is unworthy of trust. Neil also fits my model for an SK, so I think this a case where interests kind of overlap. 

Elims don't care about the SK, remember? They win as long as they hit overparity with us, meaning that as the SK hasn't been hitting them, the Elims probably dgaf as much. In fact, exeing Village today is what they need for us to hit lylo: exe a Villager, Elims and SK both kill a Villager.

There's the world in which the SK hits right, I suppose, but still.

Edited to add:

Using Aman's 6/3/1 which IDR right now someone tell me if I'm crossing wires, I suppose going 4/3 still puts us at lylo next cycle, tbf. I just don't see them particularly worrying about the SK if they don't believe they're going to be hit.

Ngl I'm annoyed enough with the SK at this juncture I'm probably rooting for an Elim win if Village loses for the first time in my life. Village win first always though.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Brandon, Kas
Neil, Aeoyri, JNV,
Alpha, Coffee, Ash, TKN, Araris

Allegedly Village, Not to be Overlooked, Resolve Expeditiously

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:
 

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

• Araris Valerian/Pookla (4): neil the beguiled, Coffeecat, Aeoryi/Resolute, Kasimir
• Cash67/Rich (4): Devotary of Spontaneity, Araris Valerian/Pookla, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness, Amanuensis
• The Wandering Wizard/Raveness (1): Cash67/Rich
• No Vote: (4) Ashbringer, Alpha, TKN, JNV

Honestly very weird to look at. If E!Araris, where are his teammates? They’d either need to be bussing him or too inactive to help

I feel it worth pointing out, which Aeo should rediscover with an ISO, that I was one of the first pushing for the Araris exe. I decided a rand was okay because Cash was a slot that needed to be resolved regardless, as I didn’t think we’d find a good way to read him anytime soon whereas I believe v!Araris could still make himself known, and because I’m merciful. So her big post where she puts me on most teams is just confusing tbh and not really convincing me to vote elsewhere.

I can see Neil/Aeo being teamed tbh, hence their collective drop. While towncores are fairly normal in mafia outside our forum, I’m always cautious of players who try to create them, particularly when they volunteer themselves for it, which is why I’d ignored Neil’s suggestion in the first place. IIRC TKN publicly opposed it which is an interesting datapoint too (speak of the Ninja and he shall appear).

The way I see it, Aeo’s views of the game keep evolving way too drastically, and the blatant openwolfing isn’t helping if she’s village. Logically feels inconsistent and/or opportunistic. I might even drop her further tbh.

The crux of today should be working out if Araris is V or E without an exe, if we can, and developing teams from there. Game feels very solvable rn, it’s just a matter of if Araris was getting bussed or if his team were too inactive to care or he’s village and the elims propped up his exe to delay. In 2 of 3 of those worlds, Aeo looks very shady with her pushes today, hence my current vote.
 

gonna post now to see the ninjas cause it’s not giving me the prompt to load them without refreshing the page

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

• Araris Valerian/Pookla (4): neil the beguiled, Coffeecat, Aeoryi/Resolute, Kasimir
• Cash67/Rich (4): Devotary of Spontaneity, Araris Valerian/Pookla, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness, Amanuensis
• The Wandering Wizard/Raveness (1): Cash67/Rich
• No Vote: (4) Ashbringer, Alpha, TKN, JNV

C1 Votes Colored:

• Archer/Paradigm (4): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle, TheRavenHasLanded/Ravens, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Devotary of Spontaneity
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Archer/Paradigm
• Ravenclawjedi42 (2): neil the beguiled, Amanuensis
• No Vote (5): Ash, TKN, JNV, Alpha, Coffee

Donde está la elims?

 

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

C1 Votes Colored:

• Archer/Paradigm (4): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle, TheRavenHasLanded/Ravens, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Devotary of Spontaneity
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Archer/Paradigm
• Ravenclawjedi42 (2): neil the beguiled, Amanuensis
• No Vote (5): Ash, TKN, JNV, Alpha, Coffee

Donde está la elims?

If you're BranAman Sanderson, which...tbh I believe more than I did before, your slot is locked green. If there's a (fake) real Sanderson out there, I'm considering if it's worth knowing by this juncture rather than a lylo cc mess.

I'm still willing to V!lean JNV FWIW. So it's interesting to me Aeo isn't.

Edited to add:

15 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

• No Vote (5): Ash, TKN, JNV, Alpha, Coffee

I'd say we rule out JNV and Alpha here if we're eyeing an Aeo team. Two members afk at EoD with Aeo self-voting is harsh.

[Amanuensis he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If you're BranAman Sanderson, which...tbh I believe more than I did before, your slot is locked green. If there's a (fake) real Sanderson out there, I'm considering if it's worth knowing by this juncture rather than a lylo cc mess.

I'm still willing to V!lean JNV FWIW. So it's interesting to me Aeo isn't.

In the (impossible) possible world that my claim is a lie, I don’t think it would be the end of the world if the (fake) real Brandon either claimed today or tomorrow. (Fake) Brandon could play IKYK games like I have if they feel like it. They could also wait to see if they ever get endangered by the exe and keep working in the shadows. The choice is (not) theirs.

Re:JNV I think I’ll need some personal interactions with them before I can decide how I feel about their slot. While I have been taking all your reads into consideration for mine (at least on the priority side), I currently think JNV could go either way.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

In the (impossible) possible world that my claim is a lie, I don’t think it would be the end of the world if the (fake) real Brandon either claimed today or tomorrow. (Fake) Brandon could play IKYK games like I have if they feel like it. They could also wait to  see if they ever get endangered by the exe and keep working in the shadows. The choice is (not) theirs.

Re:JNV I think I’ll need some personal interactions with them before I can decide how I feel about their slot. While I have been taking all your reads into consideration for mine (at least on the priority side), I currently think JNV could go either way.

Aman.

Serious question right now.

What role do you need me to play?

Because I find myself sort of playing interlocuter, which is fine - I was looking for an Aeo post that, as I mentioned, I'd flagged in my GM PM to pursue at a time where she wouldn't compulsively respond when unhealthy as it felt like a slip. But I sometimes get the idea that you - and this was true of Orlok and also MR56!Aman, are looking for me to step up more in the Devil's Advocate section.

I guess I'm asking what modality I'd be most useful in. I don't know I can cover both right now even if that'd be ideal.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Aman.

Serious question right now.

What role do you need me to play?

Because I find myself sort of playing interlocuter, which is fine - I was looking for an Aeo post that, as I mentioned, I'd flagged in my GM PM to pursue at a time where she wouldn't compulsively respond when unhealthy as it felt like a slip. But I sometimes get the idea that you - and this was true of Orlok and also MR56!Aman, are looking for me to step up more in the Devil's Advocate section.

I guess I'm asking what modality I'd be most useful in. I don't know I can cover both right now even if that'd be ideal.

TBH I’m fond of you playing Devil’s Advocate, where reasonable. You frequently see things where I don’t and Vice Versa, hence things like our differing Wizard read this game, which helps me either commit to my intuition or relent from my position. Also think it helps you too.

I guess where I’d like to see your thoughts most rn would be this:

1. What are your conclusions about the C2 exe? V/V or E/V? Why?
2. As an extension, what teams feel the most coherent when you look at both Kill choices and Wagonomics?

ED1T:

@Kasimir I also remember you doing some predictions about when the kills most likely would have been put in. Does that significantly narrow our suspects?

Edited December 16, 2023 by Amanuensis