Long Game 95: The Fire of Ado's Light

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

Yeah, that stood out to me while doing a reread of Mat. He village read Fadran quite strongly, in part for reading the game as a faction-game, which Mat also did. It might just have been an indirect defence of himself, but I feel like Mat must have had some more info to make that read given the possibility of hoid!fadran.

Agreed.

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

Other things I noted were that Mat was consistently hard village-reading Szeth and I'm not sure Szeth warranted quite that strong a read. But ti also feels way too obvious if they were team-mates.

This was my issue. I have certain theories about this, and I will say that my theories are in part why I E!read Mat and have Questions about Elan but I'd prefer to not spell them out too concretely at this point. It's also possible they're wrong anyway, as the N2 hit on Drake came from Mat's team, clearly.

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

at a point were Araris was leading or close to leading the execution, so I think it is highly unlikely Mat and Araris are on the same team.

My view was that Araris was more likely to be an Archer teammate anyway, FWIW. Odd given there was no bus, but I just have a weird sense that we did get caught up on faction politics. Will also note that in an E!Mat world, E!TJ for Khriss credences rises a little. They've been Evil together before. I must admit your reluctance to sus Mat prior to N4 has made me unsure of you, but at the same time, you felt way into going for Mat this Turn, so IDK.

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

Just noting that as it makes a walin + mat team less likely in my eyes (not that it was particularly likely to begin with).

I'm not a fan of Walin's clear lurking, but he wouldn't be the first player I'd choose to go for anyway, as I've already made clear in my ~LPLA argument last Night. I think CCing is just tempting but something to avoid.

Mat's willingness to +1 and to keep framing Wiz sort of continues to keep me off Wiz. I feel he wouldn't have backed off Wiz so hard against my argument if so, given that he'd've been committed to distancing. (I am not FWIW leaning in favour of E!Wiz in any world: I accept it's a weak argument because I dislike apathy clears on principle but as a decent chunk of players in this game have joined the Cult of the Stick (as opposed to the Cult of @_Stick_), this is the best I can do.)

@Ashbringer Lorn was spineless and refused to stand up to Frost when Frost first suggested violating 17th principles in releasing the Contained Shards. Haven't seen him, won't care to find him when there are better things to be done.

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

Given their coordination over the counterwagon it makes me wonder a little if they are team-mates. Either way I want to execute Elandera this cycle. I want clarity one what was behind the wizard wagon. If it was for example a push from team!Khriss for some reason it means wizard can't be ruled out from being on team Hoid (and would explain why there wasn't as much animo for the counterwagon as it wasn't in team hoid's favor either).

Elan for the moment - the Wiz train just felt odd to me, as did the rapid train collapse. I'm willing to consider other options to diversify but need a quick break.

Edited to add:

Let's try this. @Turtle, @Walin, @Channelknight Fadran, @The Wandering Wizard:

What are your actions so far? I see little harm in knowing about past actions, and it may very well be that we can get some piece of information or other that allows for cross-validation.

To be fair, I'll offer mine:

Quote

N0: Siphon <Shardname Withheld>
D1: Worldhop to Roshar
N1: Draw random Charge from Roshar
D2: Worldhop to Scadrial
N2: Do nothing
D3: Worldhop to Roshar
N3: Pass Charge to Frost PoC Chain.
D4: Worldhop to Silverlight
N4: Brutally destroy my integrity by siphoning from Invention.

We might as well get actions out in the open and compare.

Edited to add 2:

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

Other things I noted were that Mat was consistently hard village-reading Szeth and I'm not sure Szeth warranted quite that strong a read. But ti also feels way too obvious if they were team-mates.

FWIW my read of Mat's D3 is also an unlikely teaming with Szeth - he had no issues jumping on the wagon and switching freely between Szeth, Xino, and Araris which IMO points more to a lack of commitment/engagement, especially with how close the votes were at the end. If anything, I was the one defending Szeth aggressively, which is sort of ironic given Szeth was Mat's strongest V read but ok.

Edited to add 3:

@DeTess - Ignore previous comment, confused that with Archer's opportunistic hopping.

Edited to add 4:

How many times can I edit this post before someone else shows up? >> Timezones be whack man.

Anyway: added comment - Team Hoid seems to have failed their grab too. Not too surprising I guess given the numbers issue.

I accept Elan thinks LPLA is valid but I still feel it's too opportunistic a vote for me to not find it suspicious. Some shared suspicions between Elan and Mat also strike me as having a common thread, so I do wonder if there's some underlying reason, e.g. sharing a team doc, behind this.

I will note (sorry @DeTess I've @ you so many times) that there is one reason I can think of that Mat might have ruled out Hoid!Fadran but IDK how likely it is and it involves a line of reasoning I am reluctant to use because it involves meta-reasoning about the GM, and Aman co-GMing this game might throw the estimate off. However, since Mat might have done so:

It is theoretically possible that Mat might have guessed that Fadran was unlikely to be Hoid, due to not having that much of SE playhistory, and Ash tending to be careful in his rands. This game would break very fast if Hoid, Khriss, or Bavadin went to actual inactives or players with a significant history thereof, or players with no known history (potentially.) Just imagine what happens if Khriss were totally inactive for instance. One faction would totally not get off the ground. This problem has re-occurred before in games with key balancing roles, e.g. LG91's Stone Shaman could not go to an inactive player. IMO this take is at least partially validated by Mat being Khriss.

I don't like this line of reasoning, because guessing the GM's own meta really isn't the point of the game. I just want to note it's possible. But I think Fadran has had two full SE games under his belt at this point, and in both games, he was V against E!Mat and - I almost want to say jokevoted him? I don't recall as clearly for LG92 but he was definitely way more active/engaged. I could see Mat converting Fadran given he also had Fifth and this would at least stop Fadran from going after him again, and people sometimes like to convert their friends /shrug

Not sure this is worth anything, but I did feel I might as well point it out.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

Timezones be wilding

[Kasimir he/him]

17 minutes ago, STINK said:

Timezones be wilding

Yo wanna action trade :eyes:

Edited to add:

9 hours ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Have you met me? Kas is an SE colossus, but I don't subordinate very well. And Kas is being laid back, kinda.

omg thank u someone gets it :sob:

I am literally going with the flow and trying to refrain from Vmaxxing here and there you have no idea it's kayana

Edited to add 2:

Tbh.

As much as this seems kayana...

Someone tell me I'm kayana.

There's one thing that has left me feeling a bit disturbed about DeTess and actually more positive about Elan. But it's just one thing and IDK how much weight to put on it.

@|TJ| Where are you at rn with your reads.

@DrakeMarshall

Spoiler

drake - kas
28. OxK+ !! - ?

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

I ain't trading in this here thread good sir I see posts with more than like 400 words im outta there

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, STINK said:

I ain't trading in this here thread good sir I see posts with more than like 400 words im outta there

Join the party on Taldain? We gon' have a rave. Can't promise zero game talk though.

Look the rave doc even has special formatting :eyes:

---

Like, look guys. Basic SAN check here.

1. In any world, lynching an Elim - any Elim >>> Villager.

This much is obvious.

2. Finding Hoid is a moonshot. (I agree. We do, however, have one AC flip via Archer.)

3. Khriss's faction has been severely weakened.

4.

Quote

17th Shard - With the dangerous machinations of the madman who once led you taken care of, you are free to study the power of the Shards however you like. And if you keep their power to yourselves, who could blame you? It’s not everyday you get offered a chance at Shardic power. Every player except for Hoid, Khrissala, and Bavadin start as this Alignment.

• You win the game if all members of the Standard of Unity, Adonalsium’s Chosen and Autonomous are killed.
• Sudden Death Win Condition - If Hoid, Khrissala, and Bavadin are killed and all 16 Shards are in containment, the 17th Shard wins the game.

We have three Shards out of containment. I think we can agree to let Drake and JNV fulfill their wincons before this is achieved, though Drake is trying to avoid Intent Conversion so that's less of an issue if Frost does his job.

I could don't say this, but let's be real, Aut has likely noticed this, and she knows this is happening just as well as we do. If Hoid falls, it's her next. (FYI: if Hoid falls, I am directly going back to the rave. I will help identify more Elims if we are cleaning house but I will decline to help find Aut for ethical reasons.) I do think this means we can likely/realistically expect less help from Aut going forward, and I wouldn't blame Aut as we all agree that this was a short-term alignment of interests. I will note JNV is still not done with their wincon, and since recontainment is within our control, we should commit not to redo containment until JNV has completed.

I can understand relooking Elan in light of Archer connections but focusing right now on Team Khriss seems kayana to me since if we kill Hoid, the game is that much closer to being won/in our hands, forcing Aut and Team Hoid to act more aggressively. I'd normally agree Hoid is a moonshot (see #2), but we also have an AC flip via Archer, and I'd rather be focusing on Archer connections. Mat connections are useful IMO insofar as we want to rule out candidates.

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

Given their coordination over the counterwagon it makes me wonder a little if they are team-mates. Either way I want to execute Elandera this cycle. I want clarity one what was behind the wizard wagon. If it was for example a push from team!Khriss for some reason it means wizard can't be ruled out from being on team Hoid (and would explain why there wasn't as much animo for the counterwagon as it wasn't in team hoid's favor either).

So in conclusion: ???

Edited June 19, 2023 by Kasimir
colour

[DeTess she/her]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So in conclusion: ???

Okay, so, yesterday the only two real wagons where on Archer, who we now know was with Hoid's group, and on Wizard. The only people really backing the wizard wagon where Archer, Elan and Mat. Normally, you'd expect to find other hoidites here, which is what flagged Elan and Mat as suspicious. Except by now we know that at least Mat was not on Hoid's team, but instead was Khriss. One of the questions that is then put forward is 'where is the rest of Archer's team in all this?'.

I want to execute Elandera to have a better look at that. If she is part of Hoid's team then that is one thing, and along the lines of what you'd expect in that situation.

However, if she is not part of Hodi's team, but instead with Khriss (as the entanglement with Mat suggests) or village, it brings up some real questions, such as 'why didn't Hoid's team back up Archer there'? Reasons could include Wizard also being on Hoid's team, or Hoid's team being almost completely inactive. Either way, before I even start speculating on that I want to know what team Elandera was on.

I do see your point about Hoid being a higher priority here than another person on Khriss team, but I'd argue at this point Elandera is key to working on that. Either she is also on Hoid's team (or Hoid themselves) which means executing her brings us closer to Hoid, or she is not on Hoid's team, which means we can probably dig into the question of 'why did team hoid do nothing to save Archer'.

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

you’re welcome 

Thank you. Was this already decided on or did my reaction test (Mat is too smart for his own good) bear fruit?

6 hours ago, DeTess said:

Okay, I've got to know. @Kasimir, @The Bald Brandon, @DrakeMarshall, was the kill on Mat something drake just came up with on his own, or did I just witness Mat getting led like a sheep to the slaughter by your combined manipulation in the thread?

I mean, good job either way, but if it was you all tag-teaming mat: yikes, that was brutal XD

Unfortunately, not quite. I was reaction testing him, but that was because Drake surprised me and made me have to come up with a new plan. I legitimately hoped he was v and would help us, but I had doubts.

So, @Kasimir, Taldain?

[|TJ| he/him]

@Kasimir, the reason I'm suspecting Elandera-180 is because initially she was quiet and kinda into the background, but after the turn I mentioned there was an increase in the activity and an increase in her efforts to provide you satisfactory answers i.e. village appeasement. 

Also, I'd like to disagree that I did not mention my wariness about Fifth. I particularly mentioned his "it's alright I am okay to die for the village cause" move as likely to be evil. but not sure if he had been converted at that point. 

current reads are focusing on elan, araris. worried about tbb distancing. drake could be auto I suppose (perhaps action economy could disprove it but im not concentrating on that, someone could let me know). wiz/szeth are village i think. need to look more into stink/turtle/other nonactives.

[STINK he/him]

Non-active gang rise up

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

However, if she is not part of Hodi's team, but instead with Khriss (as the entanglement with Mat suggests) or village, it brings up some real questions, such as 'why didn't Hoid's team back up Archer there'? Reasons could include Wizard also being on Hoid's team, or Hoid's team being almost completely inactive. Either way, before I even start speculating on that I want to know what team Elandera was on.

I'm curious if that includes Archer having been a sacrifice because Hoid's team already knew this was coming.

Side-glance at TBB.

Probably just paranoid theorising, but still.

I also have a low-key theory that you're Hoid, but I'm letting it incubate for the moment. I don't particularly disagree it could be informative and would be informative - I just don't always commit to infolynch if I believe the player in question is readable. I believe this is something Aman said back in 2021 or 2022 which formed quite an impression on me, which perhaps says something about me, as it should after all be pretty obvious. I'm not quite sure I'm committing to a full read on Elan yet but there are some factors I'm waiting to allow to play out.

I'd like to ask you ( @DeTess just to make this line stand out a bit) what your current reads on Elan, TBB, TJ, and myself are.

Could I also ask if you can refer me to one baseline V game and one baseline E game of yours? I've had LG94 and MR63 as references, but MR63 is especially short. I know I've GMed E!you before, but Striker ended the game in a single day I think so...

Mat looking at the thread rn colorised:

Spoiler

 

49 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Also, I'd like to disagree that I did not mention my wariness about Fifth. I particularly mentioned his "it's alright I am okay to die for the village cause" move as likely to be evil. but not sure if he had been converted at that point. 

Specifically, I'm used to V!you opening a game with paranoia about E!Fifth. It's felt a strong part of your V!identity/play by now, and I remember it's been missing in your E games. It's understandable since he gulled you badly in QF45 and LG74 and the fact there's you only brought it up in response to people forming reads on Fifth on that basis seems odd to me.

I'd also like to ask you, while I have your attention, what your reads on me, DeTess, and TBB are.

@Szeth_Pancakes: Same question. Your reads on TBB, me, Elan, and DeTess, please?

@Elandera I'm still willing to work on/buy a V!you world even though it would be very strange and my vote is not locked in. I'm interested in your current reads on TBB, me, Drake, and DeTess.

1 hour ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Unfortunately, not quite. I was reaction testing him, but that was because Drake surprised me and made me have to come up with a new plan. I legitimately hoped he was v and would help us, but I had doubts.

What was the reaction test supposed to achieve, in your eyes? Specifically what did you expect to get that would indicate Mat's alignment?

Mind if I ask about your reads on Elan, DeTess, TJ, and myself?

And yeah, Taldain, though am considering Sel first (look I swear I'll communicate properly this time but I need to swap a charge.) I'll make a proper rave poster thing.

Look. In all fairness, we know the correct optimal Village move is to continue to try to get a Shard. I think the correct strategy is to DAO it like what we did in Roshar. I can't deny this and I can't feel right about encouraging people to join the rave and chill. But I also don't really want to full Kas this game and while I haven't really been succeeding, I don't want to just completely throw that away either.

@DrakeMarshall

Spoiler

Heads-up: probably not going to tell you when Aut made contact with me, but I would think we can both see Aut might not reasonably expect to continue with the ceasefire for very much longer. I'm comfortable keeping things as they are, but she might not see it that way, and I absolutely get why in her position/wincon. In that light, you might wanna make sure you have anti-roleblock Charges because I kind of think she might try to hit you, once the deal's off, Mr "I AM AUTONOMY'S RIVAL!"  

 

---

I will add I am re-evaluating Turtle but am focusing first on an Archer connection chart. I feel Hoid is findable, and that the purpose of the Day is to discuss and collect reads, so I'm going to try to keep doing that.

Edited to add:

@Amanuensis God of the Village I pray to u in this hour ;-; pls help i forgot how to play this game and question everything

Edited to add 2:

@DrakeMarshall Sir watch me win our bet :eyes: TO VALHALLA!

Edited June 19, 2023 by Kasimir
image kept not showing

[DeTess she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I'd like to ask you ( @DeTess just to make this line stand out a bit) what your current reads on Elan, TBB, TJ, and myself are.

Elan: elim. Vote on Wizard last cycle was very sketchy,adnd they aligned with both Archer and Mat at times. Of course, those can't both be significant tells, but still makes them look worse in my eyes.

TBB: Gut says they're a bit sketchy. I mentioned before that they were saying too little in too many posts and that feeling has not really dissipated. They also seem a bit less present at the 'front' of lynches than others. On the other hand, they do seem to be part of your inner circle, and I feel like if there was a mole in it some things would have gone differently (like their elim team going after invention as well to steal it away from you). Not impossible for them to be Autonomy, I guess.

TJ: mild village lean, no real red flags, seems involved in solving things. If they're evil, most likely on Khriss team, but don't think they are

Kas: solid village read, would have most likely stuck with their original game-plan if they were village and they really don't feel like they've been converted since then as they're still actively hunting both elim teams. 

Quote

Could I also ask if you can refer me to one baseline V game and one baseline E game of yours? I've had LG94 and MR63 as references, but MR63 is especially short. I know I've GMed E!you before, but Striker ended the game in a single day I think so...

 

Kinda difficult, given that I've just returned after a years long absence and LG94 and MR63 are my only recent games.
Still  games you could look at are:

 

I haven't read through them in too much detail to confirm how representative they are, mostly checked my alignment and that I didn't die too early.

 

edit: @DrakeMarshall, @JNV I don't suppose either of you would be willing to lend me your Shard so I can put Kas's suspicions to rest? Technically my kill of the avatar should have proven that already, but that could have been a team-mate of mine I suppose.

Edited June 19, 2023 by DeTess

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Specifically, I'm used to V!you opening a game with paranoia about E!Fifth. It's felt a strong part of your V!identity/play by now, and I remember it's been missing in your E games. It's understandable since he gulled you badly in QF45 and LG74 and the fact there's you only brought it up in response to people forming reads on Fifth on that basis seems odd to me.

I'd also like to ask you, while I have your attention, what your reads on me, DeTess, and TBB are.

I think I'll always be wary of e!Fifth, but I only mention I'm paranoid of him when he opens really strongly and everyone rushes to v!read him. When he opens not quite strongly and just floats in the background, I don't really form an opinion until he has more content (like there's a clear difference in games he opens strong with huge blocks of opinions right from D1, those games, he scares me). 

I did mention you and DeTess in my village reads last night. but I'm really coming up empty on other conversion targets (other than elan/Araris). I did mention I'm paranoid about tbb-archer distancing. tbb's play against archer in last cycle very much feels in v!tbb meta but I can't help but feel it's manufactured for distancing. 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, DeTess said:

TBB: Gut says they're a bit sketchy. I mentioned before that they were saying too little in too many posts and that feeling has not really dissipated. They also seem a bit less present at the 'front' of lynches than others. On the other hand, they do seem to be part of your inner circle, and I feel like if there was a mole in it some things would have gone differently (like their elim team going after invention as well to steal it away from you). Not impossible for them to be Autonomy, I guess.

Tbf if his team went after Invention, it would be pretty obviously him. He could probably maybe get Szeth to go for me, but IDK. Drake's just chilling and waiting for the gloves to be off v. Aut, and I sure know it wasn't me and we'd brokered the ceasefire/mild intel swap with Aut, so pretty much is traceable. I think. Not sure. I can at least be talked around into E!TBB based off a few things like reads consistent with Mat's, but I don't have a strong feeling about it. Inner circle issue is more a case of 'who ended up in rave doc' as I wasn't really planning on doing too much other than chilling and quiet solving there.

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Kinda difficult, given that I've just returned after a years long absence and LG94 and MR63 are my only recent games.
Still  games you could look at are:

And appreciated, thanks for taking the time to do both this and the reads. I'm V reading you overall FWIW but I also respect your play enough to believe I should ask some questions and cross-check some theories.

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

I think I'll always be wary of e!Fifth, but I only mention I'm paranoid of him when he opens really strongly and everyone rushes to v!read him. When he opens not quite strongly and just floats in the background, I don't really form an opinion until he has more content (like there's a clear difference in games he opens strong with huge blocks of opinions right from D1, those games, he scares me). 

Bet Fifth is laughing right now from the dead doc :eyes:

But also, fair.

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I did mention you and DeTess in my village reads last night. but I'm really coming up empty on other conversion targets (other than elan/Araris). I did mention I'm paranoid about tbb-archer distancing. tbb's play against archer in last cycle very much feels in v!tbb meta but I can't help but feel it's manufactured for distancing. 

Yeah, I'm curious about your basis for those reads. The conversion targets issue is partly why I've asked this question: I could absolutely see the teams diversifying their strategy so they do say two vocal converts, one low-lying one. Archer's and Mat's willingness to push away from vocal players in the discussion makes me think there's teammates or Hoid potentially hiding in that bracket.

Admittedly apologies if I've overlooked some posts as I'm juggling a bunch of tabs at the moment, trying to...win a bet.

I'll say this for TBB: his doc play felt very distinctive from when he was an Elim in...the Royalist Hawks? We were Hawks? I think so? - so I probably still lean a bit B overall but the consistent threads issue is what I find a tad fishy. That and a potential theory that Archer knew the vote was coming.

I guess it's possible Aut did make her own deals on the side, of course. I really wouldn't put that past her given the intel swap in the first place.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, STINK said:

Non-active gang rise up

I’m still traveling, but will have some time tomorrow to try and think about the game. I’ll park a temporary vote on Elandera for now.

[Kasimir he/him]

42 minutes ago, DeTess said:

edit: @DrakeMarshall, @JNV I don't suppose either of you would be willing to lend me your Shard so I can put Kas's suspicions to rest? Technically my kill of the avatar should have proven that already, but that could have been a team-mate of mine I suppose.

I'm willing to acknowledge that's a paranoid theory - in the current landscape, unless Elan says something extremely convincing, I'm not going to go for you first, and I think the correct approach is to go through the less kayana paranoid things first in general anyway.

I admit one thought that does lurk at the back of my head is: I'm trying to conceive of the kind of team that converts Archer and apparently leaves you and me (and if you're right, TJ) unconverted. Leaving me unconverted is reasonable given Archer's mention of fears of neutrality - it feels like I was considered as a candidate before they worried I'd nope out and Intent Convert right out again with extreme prejudice, which, fair, my hatred for being Evil is very legendary. I'm a little more curious about what it says of the team state and choices if you and TJ are also unconverted, given this game landscape. One subbranch of that theory off Archer profiling does have you as Hoid. But I'll be the first to admit that requires some degree of paranoia as you instigated the Archer train.

Part of the reason this is circulating in my head is I'm currently working based off what we know to see if I can build a team and conversion profile for both H and K teams. With the rampant inactivity among the Flatline Seven, I do question if they really were conversion candidates. But maybe they really are. Or maybe it's between <Araris, Elan, TBB.> IDK.

I wouldn't mind if you and Drake/JNV were down for it, that being said. 

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

1. Side-glance at TBB.

Probably just paranoid theorising, but still.

2.What was the reaction test supposed to achieve, in your eyes? Specifically what did you expect to get that would indicate Mat's alignment?

3. Mind if I ask about your reads on Elan, DeTess, TJ, and myself?

4. And yeah, Taldain, though am considering Sel first (look I swear I'll communicate properly this time but I need to swap a charge.) I'll make a proper rave poster thing.

5. Look. In all fairness, we know the correct optimal Village move is to continue to try to get a Shard. I think the correct strategy is to DAO it like what we did in Roshar. I can't deny this and I can't feel right about encouraging people to join the rave and chill. But I also don't really want to full Kas this game and while I haven't really been succeeding, I don't want to just completely throw that away either.

Numbering mine for ease of reading.

I do not deserve the amount of distrust I am receiving, but whatever. My life will get easier for the next time we play a similar game.

Nothing in particular, my 'reaction tests' are a lot less binary than yours/most people's. It was about 50/50 reaction test vs genuine ask. I would expect a Villager to have a lot more reticence/ask more questions than he did. Obviously he didn't put in the action to Siphon, which has team composition implications, but I'm not sure what exactly they are. Unfortunately, I had to wake up rather early for weightlifting, otherwise I would have paid more attention.

Pretty negative on Elan, I don't see her slot as being Village, though I think the only way to know which type of e she is is through the exe. DeTess, I don't know. I don't think she's SoU although it's still possible. If she's AC, it says something about Hoid I think that they chose DeTess over a non-returning player. Probably the only medium-high profile player that has a decent chance of not being converted. TJ, no idea, but if Szeth is e, which, despite the blatant Mat connection, I kinda doubt now for reasons I might get into in a separate post, TJ is a prime target. Otherwise IDK, could be Auto for all I know. As for you, I don't think there's any way you started e, and I seriously doubt you've been converted. You're pretty strongly in your v playstyle.

Either would probably work for me, I don't quite have enough Investiture for Sel to be all that useful, and I'm going to have some free day actions for a while so Taldain would probably be better. Up to you. I think almost everything I want to do can be accomplished from either.

I'm not sure about that anymore. Two Shards we can be pretty confident are in v hands are much better for the SDW than many Shards in potentially compromised hands. Sure, it would be nice to get Invention and/or Endowment in v hands, but it very well might not be worth the risk.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, The Bald Brandon said:

I do not deserve the amount of distrust I am receiving, but whatever. My life will get easier for the next time we play a similar game.

Consider it a healthy respect for your E!play. I'm traumatised by QF64. But you're also not on top of my list.

Just now, The Bald Brandon said:

Nothing in particular, my 'reaction tests' are a lot less binary than yours/most people's. It was about 50/50 reaction test vs genuine ask. I would expect a Villager to have a lot more reticence/ask more questions than he did. Obviously he didn't put in the action to Siphon, which has team composition implications, but I'm not sure what exactly they are. Unfortunately, I had to wake up rather early for weightlifting, otherwise I would have paid more attention.

OoA, friend. Drake's shot on Mat prevented Mat from siphoning as kill comes first on OoA. I'd bet Mat was pretty willing to do it since it was a guaranteed Shard and gave him an extra life.

1 minute ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Pretty negative on Elan, I don't see her slot as being Village, though I think the only way to know which type of e she is is through the exe. DeTess, I don't know. I don't think she's SoU although it's still possible. If she's AC, it says something about Hoid I think that they chose DeTess over a non-returning player. Probably the only medium-high profile player that has a decent chance of not being converted. TJ, no idea, but if Szeth is e, which, despite the blatant Mat connection, I kinda doubt now for reasons I might get into in a separate post, TJ is a prime target. Otherwise IDK, could be Auto for all I know. As for you, I don't think there's any way you started e, and I seriously doubt you've been converted. You're pretty strongly in your v playstyle.

I will say this: I do feel her last posts has been tonally Village? IDK. I expect an Elim to have a tighter response, tonally, for want of a better word. And there's a reason I've been asking the questions I've been. But I thank you and everyone else for your patience and forbearance as I seek Valhalla

3 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Either would probably work for me, I don't quite have enough Investiture for Sel to be all that useful, and I'm going to have some free day actions for a while so Taldain would probably be better. Up to you. I think almost everything I want to do can be accomplished from either.

Fair. Leaning more towards Sel at the moment but again, will communicate that better so we stop leaving people behind.

3 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

I'm not sure about that anymore. Two Shards we can be pretty confident are in v hands are much better for the SDW than many Shards in potentially compromised hands. Sure, it would be nice to get Invention and/or Endowment in v hands, but it very well might not be worth the risk.

I have a strong feeling for reasons I'm not at liberty to express that the Village's day might start to get worse from this point out. But I'm not all that sure of it and it relies on certain - assumptions and projections. I stand by what I said in Roshar: I've been clear to Aut that I recognise we're probably going to start to part ways near this point because, quite simply put, although Hoid might be very difficult to find, one fragile life between Aut and an all-out manhunt SD is probably way too close for Aut's comfort.

But I reckon that's a Night problem at the very least.

In that sense...Bah. No. Nevermind.

But you're certainly right that the more Shards locked in there, the fewer we have to put back. 

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Consider it a healthy respect for your E!play. I'm traumatised by QF64. But you're also not on top of my list.

OoA, friend. Drake's shot on Mat prevented Mat from siphoning as kill comes first on OoA. I'd bet Mat was pretty willing to do it since it was a guaranteed Shard and gave him an extra life.

I will say this: I do feel her last posts has been tonally Village? IDK. I expect an Elim to have a tighter response, tonally, for want of a better word. And there's a reason I've been asking the questions I've been. But I thank you and everyone else for your patience and forbearance as I seek Valhalla

Fair. Leaning more towards Sel at the moment but again, will communicate that better so we stop leaving people behind.

Understandable, just reread that aftermath. Very fun. That is a pretty representative of my e play @ anyone else reading who's interested. That and the one I linked to DeTess earlier. 

You think I'm reading and actually internalizing that beast of an OoA? But that does make more sense. I would say that I doubt any other SoU were online at that time or else Mat probably would have encouraged them to join in to help out and increase their chances. But that doesn’t say much cause very few people were on then anyways I think. 

Yeah, I don't know, I try not to be convinced by pure tone after blatantly e stuff, as I think it is the easiest to fake and I (and most others I think) have been burned in the past.

Alright, I'll put the order in preemptively, so please @ me if you decide to go somewhere else, the rave was fun. 

In reference to the Village’s day getting darker comment that I didn't quote because dumb, I have plansTM once we get to the rave.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, The Bald Brandon said:

You think I'm reading and actually internalizing that beast of an OoA? But that does make more sense. I would say that I doubt any other SoU were online at that time or else Mat probably would have encouraged them to join in to help out and increase their chances. But that doesn’t say much cause very few people were on then anyways I think. 

Depends I think. Similar to my comment about DeTess saying you could've gotten teammates on the Invention pull - I sort of don't think it's really that feasible because...well it depends on a bunch of questions I sent to Ash about OoA (sigh) but long story short, I was careful to say in thread that anyone showing up with that Shard would probably get some side-eye. That might not have been easy to survive. And if you specifically had gotten it, or hadn't but claimed it via your teammate, it would've been pretty damning to have shown up without it, given that Odium's Investment scan is world-locked, meaning Drake was only ever going to scan you, me, or Szeth.

Not saying it's impossible, but it's dicey.

And why not doubletap? Like Mat can double Siphon. I assume this gives him twice the odds. Set up their own Siphon on a Shard they want, Mat double dips with us.

*Note I don't really know if this lets him get twice the Charges, double the Shards and tbh I'm too lazy to care about asking as Khriss is not my problem any longer

20 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Yeah, I don't know, I try not to be convinced by pure tone after blatantly e stuff, as I think it is the easiest to fake and I (and most others I think) have been burned in the past.

There's a second factor. But I also try not to be too close-minded, re: what I said on Roshar. I've MLed Villagers before because I overcompensate for how easily I can be talked into/out of things and then go overboard and ignore everything they say and my own instincts. If she's V, I at least owe it to her to hear her out and do my best before exeing her. And I do think there's a second factor at play. But preferably waiting to hear from Elan before I mention what's been on my mind.

FWIW, she's still very much within my Hoid PoE too.

21 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Alright, I'll put the order in preemptively, so please @ me if you decide to go somewhere else, the rave was fun. 

Will do.

21 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

In reference to the Village’s day getting darker comment that I didn't quote because dumb, I have plansTM once we get to the rave.

In front of the children? (Aut's Avatars.) For shame!

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In front of the children? (Aut's Avatars.) For shame!

I think Auto is one of those parents that's like 'oh, nothing they haven't heard from me.'

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, The Bald Brandon said:

I think Auto is one of those parents that's like 'oh, nothing they haven't heard from me.'

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I've said this since the first Day: #autscrapparenting should be a hashtag ( @Ashbringer / @Amanuensis :eyes: ) because man do her parenting skills suck. (Sorry Aut, you know it's true.)

[Elandera she/her]

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

the reason I'm suspecting Elandera-180 is because initially she was quiet and kinda into the background, but after the turn I mentioned there was an increase in the activity and an increase in her efforts to provide you satisfactory answers i.e. village appeasement. 

Or it was that I actually had time/motivation to begin putting more active work into the game, combined with an acknowledgement that I didn't want to be a low active player because of its detrimental impacts on the rest of the village. And sorry my activity dipped over the weekend. I had several things going on and only those two days with my husband before he left for another week.

It also allowed me a little time to think on the Archer flip and what that meant for my previous assumptions. I think he was likely the N0 or N2/3 conversion. As it's been pointed out to me and from looking again at vote records, Archer wasn't under as much pressure as I had thought, but converting him right after he was tied for exe seems very risky.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm interested in your current reads on TBB, me, Drake, and DeTess.

Since all of my previous assumptions were wildly incorrect, I no longer trust anyone... But I'll do my best to answer you anyways and spend some time digging through posts.

Looking at the players we know so far: Mat/Fifth = Khriss Faction and Archer = Hoid Faction

TBB - Looking through their past posts and votes, they seem to be the most sheep-y, and therefore most suspicious. His D1 vote was first a sheep on Archer, then a sheep on DeTess, then back to Archer for self-preseration. He didn't vote at all D2. In D3, he thought about voting on Szeth after Araris mentioned his suspicion, thought about going after Xino after he got attention for his low activity elim tendencies, then finally landed on Szeth only after TJ set down the first vote. In D4, he was the fifth(?) vote on Archer, which was every vote but Archer himself at that point.

Conclusion: 80% chance of being elim, mainly Hoid Faction. I don't like the voting patterns, and he only seemed to land on Archer when that was the majority vote. D1's self-preservation could be pre-conversion, or a Hoid!TBB with Archer as N0 convert, considering this:

On 6/8/2023 at 8:59 PM, The Bald Brandon said:

since we both don't want to die, and I don't particularly want you dead, how about we work together on DeTess? 

Edit: as a show of good faith, Detess.(Archer).

Archer never showed up after that point. Looking at it now, it looks like he was trying to get them both out of the top spot, and then the self-pres was done late enough that he was confident neither would die with the tie rules.

Kasimir - While there has been a shift in your playstyle this game, it was an expected one (both for how you started and where you are now). I place you as my most confident village read because you went after both Archer and Mat pretty hard. There's no way you'd have sussed Mat that hard if you were Team Khriss, and I doubt you would have eviscerated my vote on Wizard quite so much if you were Team Hoid.

Drake - No clue, honestly. Player history wise, especially with Fifth, I think, he'd make a good conversion target, but I can't get a good read. They haven't voted at all this game (please correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't find a vote), which makes me lean non-village. But the lack of commitment gives me Autonomy vibes more than Hoid Faction vibes. Definitely not Khriss Faction with the shot at Mat last night.

DeTess - I really want to trust her because she's had great contributions and analysis. Definitely not Hoid Faction, as she was consistent about her suspicion of Archer (and followed through with it). Possible Khriss Faction with their v!read on Mat most of the game, but that's pretty low because she was pretty blatant about calling out his joining me on Wizard. Maybe autonomy? But I still think Drake fits that style better. So I think I land at another village read with DeTess.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

It also allowed me a little time to think on the Archer flip and what that meant for my previous assumptions. I think he was likely the N0 or N2/3 conversion. As it's been pointed out to me and from looking again at vote records, Archer wasn't under as much pressure as I had thought, but converting him right after he was tied for exe seems very risky.

I actually lean N1, but not very strongly. I've been slowly going over the past thread in a re-read and feel that D1 Archer still vaguely passes as Village but he just makes a massive volta at D2 - the Ruin hunting thing read of busywork and the thing LG94 has taught me about E!Archer and I feel is validated by this game is you don't TWTBAW him over busywork because he will make comments you think are pointless for an Elim just to do busywork.

Worth noting that this is the VC that caught my eye:

Quote

• (3) Archer: Fifth Scholar, |TJ|, DeTess, 
• (2) The Bald Brandon: Archer, Szeth_Pancakes, 
• (2) DeTess: Matrim's Dice, Sart, 
• (1) Matrim's Dice: The Wandering Wizard, 
• (1) Stink: Araris Valerian, 

Archer leading over TBB and Archer voting TBB. Alpha ties it up by voting TBB.

Quote

• (3) Archer: Fifth Scholar, |TJ|, DeTess, 
• (3) The Bald Brandon: Archer, Szeth_Pancakes, Alpha
• (2) DeTess: Matrim's Dice, Sart, 
• (1) Matrim's Dice: The Wandering Wizard, 
• (1) Stink: Araris Valerian, 

Creating a tie but opening the way to save Archer.

Fifth throws in a weird Fadran vote that isn't particularly fluid. I can't say I have an E!read on Fifth at that juncture but I just don't understand the vote, and it's one reason I expect people thought Fifth and Archer were teamed (lol I geddit now; don't @ me I wasn't strongly backreading or vote analysing until today.) It puts TBB ahead of Archer, which at least expresses Fifth's indifference to TBB at that juncture, if he's going sidetrain.

Quote

• (2) Archer: |TJ|, DeTess, 
• (3) The Bald Brandon: Archer, Szeth_Pancakes, Alpha
• (2) DeTess: Matrim's Dice, Sart, 
• (1) Matrim's Dice: The Wandering Wizard, 
• (1) Stink: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) Fadran: Fifth

Note: Mat defends Fadran at this juncture.

But nothing really comes out of it. I don't know if this feels E/E as they don't really exchange very much at that point. I feel there's also a bigger tonal shift in Fifth subsequently past this Day so I guess I'm maybe a bit willing to lean V!Fifth at this juncture. Don't feel strongly about it because N1 Fifth is whatever.

Elan votes TBB, which more or less stacks the TBB wagon, making me wonder if there was an intention of preserving Archer here, though not strongly.

Quote

• (2) Archer: |TJ|, DeTess, 
• (4) The Bald Brandon: Archer, Szeth_Pancakes, Alpha, Elan
• (2) DeTess: Matrim's Dice, Sart, 
• (1) Matrim's Dice: The Wandering Wizard, 
• (1) Stink: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) Fadran: Fifth

In response, TBB votes Archer here, despite not wanting to.

Quote

• (3) Archer: |TJ|, DeTess, TBB
• (4) The Bald Brandon: Archer, Szeth_Pancakes, Alpha, Elan
• (2) DeTess: Matrim's Dice, Sart, 
• (1) Matrim's Dice: The Wandering Wizard, 
• (1) Stink: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) Fadran: Fifth

FWIW, Mat demonstrates a real indifference to TBB's fate here, though I suppose one could argue TBB was going to self-pres. 

He @s Wiz about changing his vote, which doesn't feel very teamed to me? IDK. I guess it's one of the few Mat vote sensitivity places I can potentially see. There's at least a lot of tonal indifference in Wiz's post and he stacks onto Archer, creating a close race.

Quote

• (4) Archer: |TJ|, DeTess, TBB, Wiz
• (4) The Bald Brandon: Archer, Szeth_Pancakes, Alpha, Elan
• (2) DeTess: Matrim's Dice, Sart, 
• (1) Matrim's Dice: The Wandering Wizard, 
• (1) Stink: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) Fadran: Fifth

Interested if Wiz forgot ties don't kill because at that point, I absolutely had.

Mat decides for no apparent reason that TBB is Village. While this could potentially open up room for a K!TBB, I at least feel that's a slightly risky D1 read, so probably no conversion on the offing at that juncture.

IMO Elan's vote is the one that largely emerges as the one that saved Archer here and it wasn't even really intended to - everyone else was trying to kill Archer. It could have been meant as a safe wagon pad early on (safeguarding investment?) but I kind of don't really buy it. I will say it's a very noisy vote for Hoid, which almost makes me lean Hoid!Araris instead.

I'll probably have stronger conclusions later on. I have this on my to-do list, in theory, but I'll see how far I get through them:

• Finish re-read
• Finish vote analysis
• Finish DeTess's 1V / 1E - been partway through the Steel game as I have memories of MR42 and the DeTess principle that TJ keeps citing
• Finish H/K profile + H/K team profile

What can I say I guess I'm an Ambitious kinda guy.

Wow this response to Elan just really segued didn't it rip sorry.

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

Conclusion: 80% chance of being elim, mainly Hoid Faction. I don't like the voting patterns, and he only seemed to land on Archer when that was the majority vote. D1's self-preservation could be pre-conversion, or a Hoid!TBB with Archer as N0 convert, considering this:

Don't fully disagree about the possibility, feel Hoid!TBB is a bit bold/unlikely given TBB's obsession with getting a vig kill and subsequently, Odium charges to use on Avatars.

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

Drake - No clue, honestly. Player history wise, especially with Fifth, I think, he'd make a good conversion target, but I can't get a good read. They haven't voted at all this game (please correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't find a vote), which makes me lean non-village. But the lack of commitment gives me Autonomy vibes more than Hoid Faction vibes. Definitely not Khriss Faction with the shot at Mat last night.

He hasn't, but he's an odd case. Theoretically his shots are okay but I sort of think AC or at least...I just can't gut read him Village and it bothers me that I don't know why even though I also want to trust him. Sigh. Aman problems plague me into this game.

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

DeTess - I really want to trust her because she's had great contributions and analysis. Definitely not Hoid Faction, as she was consistent about her suspicion of Archer (and followed through with it). Possible Khriss Faction with their v!read on Mat most of the game, but that's pretty low because she was pretty blatant about calling out his joining me on Wizard. Maybe autonomy? But I still think Drake fits that style better. So I think I land at another village read with DeTess.

Hmmm.

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

Kasimir - While there has been a shift in your playstyle this game, it was an expected one (both for how you started and where you are now). I place you as my most confident village read because you went after both Archer and Mat pretty hard. There's no way you'd have sussed Mat that hard if you were Team Khriss, and I doubt you would have eviscerated my vote on Wizard quite so much if you were Team Hoid.

I'm gonna regret saying this aren't I.

Spoiler

The second factor I've been waiting on and that might have made a difference in my eyes is something I've noticed a little, which isn't strictly-speaking infallibly true. I'll preface this with the note that some Elims do try to take potshots at me before usually deciding I'm too much of a pain in the pula to exe and then trying to NK me.

In general, I've noticed that for whatever reason, Elims tend to be faster to V!read me. Probably the polar opposite of TBB I think, because even in games where I feel my Village play is lacking (e.g. I think there's a good case to be made in this game for hesitation and Khriss alignment or just Kas = Aut), I've noticed the players who have the least doubts about the issue tend to have...certain clarities where alignment is concerned :eyes:

i.e. tend to be Evil.

I think Fifth and El had a long ago comment about being painfully Village but it certainly seems more painful for Elims  There's probably a small set of players who I'd say just tend to read me right no matter what, which includes TBB and probably Drake as the latter has seen me play Evil behind the hood a few times. I had a slight + on you based off D4 and had some misgivings about the fact DeTess's read seemed to come quite quickly and didn't waver (keep in mind that both Mat and Archer chose not to brawl and were okay with V!me. I think Fifth might've brawled at some point but generally prefers to NK V!me so maybe not.)

In LG93, TJ, Wiz, and Araris all didn't hesitate to strongly V read me really early on which is kind of kayana for a C1.

I guess what I'm saying is: insertJaimeLannistermeme.jpg here and I'm looking forward to getting tunnelled on by all of you who want cheap V reads in the next game? >> /s

See: I have a fairly solid V read on Szeth at this point, and Szeth has been non-stop tunnelling me in a sincere way. Alpha sort of did as well, and Alpha flipped V. There's been some PM paranoia from Wiz which I approve of, though I'm trying to decide if it's performative or not but still V!lean Wiz for the moment.

Long story short, I'm Hoid hunting. Between Elan and Araris, I'm leaning Hoid!Araris. My narrowed Hoid pool is four candidates right now: <Elan, Araris, STINK, TJ.> I have a more paranoid Hoid pool but I'm not sharing that one. STINK would probably be lower on the list; Elan's voting is ? but I feel Araris has been under the radar enough to successfully slip past and an Archer convert feels in his MO. TJ's Kas = Aut paranoia could be legit but could also be Hoid just looking for a soft target. I could see TJ converting Archer, though it's not as good a fit - they have playhistory as well. I'm looking up Elan's playhistory but Archer is a bit off for her I think. That being said, I could easily see her going for Archer after GMing E!Archer a bit.

I really low key want to make an Araris push today but recognise there's not enough appetite for it, and I can certainly see why going for the Elan train is more sensible. Just...I don't feel (sorry Aut) that we can afford to give up too much tempo right now. I think there's an excellent metaphor for this in the game Drake and I played at the start - I don't want the Elim rooks to link up and get tempo to hit us. We have to break them before that becomes a significant issue, since we're flying half a Village.

@Elandera: In a V!you world, where do you think Hoid is? Or who are your AC suspicions, at any rate?

Edited to add: I guess the other reason the Drake game was on my mind is I acknowledge Hoid hunting is risky because I'm essentially saying to pass up a sus player on the hopes of getting Hoid and that's pretty unconscionable, especially in the world the exe then MLs a Villager instead. And there's an argument for doing this the slow and methodical way. I just don't feel we can afford to let this drag out beyond two cycles, and two cycles is already pushing it.

Keep in mind the hashtags: we're 14 v. 4 right now, but Fae, Stink, Walin, Wiz, and Turtle are virtually nonexistent, so in effect, we're 9 v. 4, and this assumes the Elims are onside. At maximum capacity, Aut's faction is at 7. I think there's still room for a ceasefire at this point but I think Aut is more acutely aware of the numbers than we are.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Kasimir

[Elandera she/her]

49 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In a V!you world, where do you think Hoid is? Or who are your AC suspicions, at any rate?

AC?

After reading, TBB is certainly shortlisted for my Hoid vote. Araris is there too as you do make good points about that. But the lack of Hoid involvement in a counter Archer wagon, combined with no more breached shards has me headscratching. 

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Elandera said:

After reading, TBB is certainly shortlisted for my Hoid vote. Araris is there too as you do make good points about that. But the lack of Hoid involvement in a counter Archer wagon, combined with no more breached shards has me headscratching. 

AC being Hoid's faction.

Araris is a busser, but has also calculated before that it's more suspicious to join a train. There was a solid anti-Archer majority, which coupled with RL busyness, might make me believe it's plausible. TJ being second on the Archer vote dampens the Hoid possibility. Then of course there's DeTess's answer, which is you and the Wiz wagon. I guess I could see STINK just leaving it be as Hoid but not sure.

59 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Keep in mind the hashtags: we're 14 v. 4 right now, but Fae, Stink, Walin, Wiz, and Turtle are virtually nonexistent, so in effect, we're 9 v. 4, and this assumes the Elims are onside. At maximum capacity, Aut's faction is at 7. I think there's still room for a ceasefire at this point but I think Aut is more acutely aware of the numbers than we are.

That being said, I'd like if we not break the ceasefire. I have thoughts on the issue I suppose. But this is moot for the moment anyway since the relevant actions really kick in at Night.

@DrakeMarshall @STINK @The Bald Brandon @Anyone Else Interested:

DAOist traveling circus is going to SEL (pls lemme change Charges :sob:) 

u good with that? 

Just @ STINK if he finally wants in or still feels too cool for raves.