Mid-Range Game 63: The Outcasts of Tyrian Falls

[DeTess]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Maybe you did do that, then. You don’t have to be the elim killer. I realized last night that an e!Tineye could make a PM and submit a kill while being ‘cleared’ of the latter (since they can make a PM freely) which I think is my new theory since getting a pool of three on C2 feels too easy.

Wait, is that true? In that case JNV and alpha are back in the main pool of suspects.

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Wait, is that true? In that case JNV and alpha are back in the main pool of suspects.

Inefficient Tineyes can make one PM a cycle without taking an action, so an elim one could do that as well as the kill.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

I’m not a Tineye, btw 

[Stick.]

Well apparently the tineye checking to see which players have PMs with each other counts as an action, so they won’t have that info while submitting the kill. So if the tineye is unable to confirm/deny the existence of a PM then we know they did something else w their action. 

Last cycle, they wouldn’t have used their action on that since PM creation comes after the PM scan. 

[Shining Silhouette]

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Shining unvoting Araris and voting Archer could be him solidifying the elim kill choice. @Shining Silhouette, what made you switch there?

Aman said this: "does it at all bother you to vote alongside Archer?"

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm actually kind of confused why Aman called Shining's D1 'uncharacteristically helpful / not trollish' lol

Me and you both, man

34 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Maybe you did do that, then. You don’t have to be the elim killer. I realized last night that an e!Tineye could make a PM and submit a kill while being ‘cleared’ of the latter (since they can make a PM freely) which I think is my new theory since getting a pool of three on C2 feels too easy.

:00000

Being in a small PoE is great cause you can just pretty much solve

This puts Alpha and JNV into the pool? smh my head

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

12 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Aman said this: "does it at all bother you to vote alongside Archer?"

Me and you both, man

:00000

Being in a small PoE is great cause you can just pretty much solve

This puts Alpha and JNV into the pool? smh my head

“Shaking my head my head”? 

[Shining Silhouette]

2 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

“Shaking my head my head”? 

yeah

like how I'm pro-procrastination-nation

or how you do things as ASAP as possible

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

 Haha

I still haven’t figured out what “PoE” means lol. Can somebody please tell me? 

[Stick.]

JNV could be an elim, but I’d expect E!JNV to put more of an effort into communicating their thoughts to the thread (and voting D1). Also, they are literally going to die if they don’t post within the next 13 hours. It’s possible they’re trying out a different elim meta. 
Edit:

@TheAlpha929 PoE is process of elimination - when we’re able to eliminate some players off the pool of suspicion by village reading them, and ending up with players who don’t have much reason to be considered village 

Edited April 21, 2023 by _Stick_

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

PoE is process of elimination - when we’re able to eliminate some players off the pool of suspicion by village reading them, and ending up with players who don’t have much reason to be considered village 

Edited April 21, 2023 by TheAlpha929
Oh duh

[Mat]

1 hour ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I’m not a Tineye, btw 

iiiiii don't know how I feel about this xD

46 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Aman said this: "does it at all bother you to vote alongside Archer?"

Yeah and then you said this: "I guess not"

Though tbf scrolling down it does appear your switch was related to that. At least Aman thought it was. Those trains were v/v anyway and the only interaction would be you saving Stick, but I already decided you probably aren't e/e, so I guess you can have a pass. Feels wrong to give it though :P.

49 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Being in a small PoE is great cause you can just pretty much solve

Spoiler

 

24 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

JNV could be an elim, but I’d expect E!JNV to put more of an effort into communicating their thoughts to the thread (and voting D1). Also, they are literally going to die if they don’t post within the next 13 hours. It’s possible they’re trying out a different elim meta. 

I agree with this, I think.

[JNV]

Hi ok Im sorry I have something tonight I have like no time right now like after tomorrow everything will be fine hopefully maybe possibly sorry I think Silhouette for now theres like a tiny tiny tiny chance I can get on like minutes before rollover but dont count on it so plan around me if you have a paradigm shift bye

[Mat]

And now I like JNV/Stick .-.

[Stick.]

…you can not deny that this is a tunnel now  

Edit:

As of this moment I’m okay with <DeTess, JNV> as my elim team guess and I’ve been getting decently strong not-elim vibes from Mat’s last couples of posts. 

Edited April 21, 2023 by _Stick_

[Mat]

I mean

• The two flips we have were my two village reads yesterday
• There aren't very many players in this game
• Surely you can't maintain that there's no middle ground between village reading someone and tunneling on them
• I spent last night rereading and examining the likelihood and situations around e!you. My vote was based on the other votes (ones already existing on the others in the PoE); I didn't snap vote you and don't feel my vote is static
• It's kinda also PoE since I village read other people more

But sure I guess you could call it a tunnel

[DeTess]

Okay, so with JNV and alpha put back in the main group of suspects I am reevaluating my vote on Silho. When I believed that between stick and Silho at least one had to be evil and with stick potentially being able to reinforce the believability of their roleclaim next cycle, and in the process proving they shouldn't be in that group of suspects executing silho was the obvious way to go, even if my read on them was dead neutral, as  the worst thing could happen was that they proved to be innocent so we could be 100% certain on e!stick afterwards.

However, as that is no longer true I am moving my vote to alpha. Between stick, alpha, Silho and JNV, Silho and JNV are dead neutral due to the playstyle of the former and quietness of the latter, and between alpha and stick I am more suspicious of Alpha, especially as stick ahs a way to potentially alleviate suspicion next cycle. IF that falls through though I'll probably push for stick then.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, DeTess said:

However, as that is no longer true I am moving my vote to alpha. Between stick, alpha, Silho and JNV, Silho and JNV are dead neutral due to the playstyle of the former and quietness of the latter, and between alpha and stick I am more suspicious of Alpha, especially as stick ahs a way to potentially alleviate suspicion next cycle. IF that falls through though I'll probably push for stick then.

How do you view Alpha's new player status as factoring into all of this?

[DeTess]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

How do you view Alpha's new player status as factoring into all of this?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember it being said this was their fourth game by now? Also, some of the things that flagged me as suspicious (such as their push on Aman C1) where things that seemed unlike the kind of thing I'd expect a new player to do.

Or to put it another way, the things that looked like new player confusion to me were not the things that made me suspicious of them, so I don't think it factors in my decision unless there is some reason in their game history why it would be better to avoid executing them quite yet.

[Stick.]

14 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Silho and JNV are dead neutral due to the playstyle of the former and quietness of the latter

Does JNV remain dead neutral even after considering the Araris kill? You said it yourself:

On 4/20/2023 at 0:32 PM, DeTess said:

The kill against Araris was most likely submitted either before they came up for the lynch if none of the elims where around for turnover, or otherwise must have been submitted close to turnover after the vote on Araris dissipated.

Does JNV not fit the first category? IIRC, everybody apart from you and JNV was present at rollover - if you are village you know you're innocent so does this not make JNV look a bit suspicious?

8 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember it being said this was their fourth game by now? Also, some of the things that flagged me as suspicious (such as their push on Aman C1) where things that seemed unlike the kind of thing I'd expect a new player to do.

Or to put it another way, the things that looked like new player confusion to me were not the things that made me suspicious of them, so I don't think it factors in my decision unless there is some reason in their game history why it would be better to avoid executing them quite yet.

It's their fourth game technically yeah but 2 of those were Deception QFs (QF65a/QF65b), which is considerably different from standard SE, and the third...hm. Dunno if they played a third game tbh so this is their third game I think. EDIT: LG93, sorry. That was the third - their first normal SE game

Edited April 21, 2023 by _Stick_

[Mat]

1 minute ago, DeTess said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember it being said this was their fourth game by now? Also, some of the things that flagged me as suspicious (such as their push on Aman C1) where things that seemed unlike the kind of thing I'd expect a new player to do.

Or to put it another way, the things that looked like new player confusion to me were not the things that made me suspicious of them, so I don't think it factors in my decision unless there is some reason in their game history why it would be better to avoid executing them quite yet.

Effectively this is their second game, I think. They're counting the two runs of Araris' recent QF, which was a rerun of QF33 and very untraditional. Mostly I'm asking because I personally would factor in things like new player confusion into my read but I guess I just don't understand what your read is based off of either  What (besides their Aman push) do you elim read them for?

[Amanuensis]

37 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And now I like JNV/Stick .-.

TBF to JNV, they were the first person to get the full brunt of my Stick/Silho theory in our PM (they essentially asked how certain I was, and I said very, then outlined why).

And TBH, I'm nowhere near convinced of Stick or Silho's innocence. Elims can and will say anything to not get eliminated.

Stick

(Possibly tunneling, but I need to trust my instincts)

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[DeTess]

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Does JNV remain dead neutral even after considering the Araris kill? You said it yourself:

Does JNV not fit the first category? IIRC, everybody apart from you and JNV was present at rollover - if you are village you know you're innocent so does this not make JNV look a bit suspicious?

It is true that JNV fits the first category, just as you fit the second. in fact, every player is oine one of the two categories defined by that quote, so untill we know more about the elim team there isn't much to be done with that, as said in the bit that immediately followed that quote:

On 4/20/2023 at 10:32 AM, DeTess said:

edit: this is pretty useless info now, but could be used to help narrow things down once an elim has been executed.

I'm not really taking that into account until we actually have a dead elim and can figure out which part of this divide the elim team is likely on. You not including that part to make it look like I'm contradicting myself is not making me lean any more village on you.

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Effectively this is their second game, I think. They're counting the two runs of Araris' recent QF, which was a rerun of QF33 and very untraditional. Mostly I'm asking because I personally would factor in things like new player confusion into my read but I guess I just don't understand what your read is based off of either  What (besides their Aman push) do you elim read them for?

That's the main thing. Everything before that seemed to be new player confusionish stuff which usually gives me a very slight village lean. Their posts this cycle are not making me feel any better about them. They mostly seem like they want to be involved but not really committing anything. Like suggesting someone look at a stick/detess team but not really putting in any effort to look into that team themselves, and them making a PM with stick just feels a little off given that they were around for turnover, but that would make me lean more mobborn on them, if anything (if 'making a PM' is code for conversion, they'd know stick survives the tie as the conversion happens before the tie is resolved).

edit: If there seems to be a consensus that alpha is new enough they should be left alone for another cycle I'll probably move my vote to stick, but this is where my suspicion lies right now.

Edited April 21, 2023 by DeTess

[Stick.]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Elims can and will say anything to not get eliminated.

e!me would try my luck claiming mobborn then

I've done all I can tbh and I genuinely dont remember a single time e!me hasn't just immediately accepted getting lynched at the first sight of thread suspicion. The urge to self vote here is strong but I dun do that  

[Mat]

1 minute ago, DeTess said:

That's the main thing. Everything before that seemed to be new player confusionish stuff which usually gives me a very slight village lean. Their posts this cycle are not making me feel any better about them. They mostly seem like they want to be involved but not really committing anything. Like suggesting someone look at a stick/detess team but not really putting in any effort to look into that team themselves, and them making a PM with stick just feels a little off given that they were around for turnover, but that would make me lean more mobborn on them, if anything (if 'making a PM' is code for conversion, they'd know stick survives the tie as the conversion happens before the tie is resolved).

Suggesting an idea without following through and not thinking about all of the nuances of the rules are both things that I read as a factor of them being new, not evil. That's why I asked about how you viewed their experience in regards to reading them-- for me, those points reenforce my village read, not take away from it. At least the second one of those. I'd actually be more surprised if v!Alpha had been aware of the tie thing, since I (and many other players, it would seem) completely forgot about it.

[Amanuensis]

I do wonder if Alpha's weirdness with my slot every time I mention the Mobborn is because they're the OG Mobborn. Doesn't feel like an Elim response to a villager desiring Mobborn transparency. In that scenario, it would suggest that Stick was the first recruit; in which case, again, I request the Mobborn come forward, as they're guaranteed to not be Elim and I'd rather not waste time discussing them for the execution or accidentally waste my roleblock on them. I just want to end the murders >:(

ED1T:

Furthermore, Mobborn recruitment comes before execution, so if Alpha did indeed recruit Stick, she would have been tie immune and thus him choosing her despite the tie is explainable

ED2T:

Y'know, now that I think of it, the Mobborn can use their recruitment as a way to guarantee we find an elim. We put a couple players up for a tie again, the Mobborn recruits one of them, and if the kill redirects to the converting Mobborn, then we know they're a baddie. If the conversion is successful, we've got a surviving villager 

@_Stick_

ED3T:

All of this just makes me wish I was Mobborn more

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis