Mid-Range Game 63: The Outcasts of Tyrian Falls

[DeTess she/her]

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Because Alpha made a PM with her.

How do you know that?

9 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I did.

Stick

Why did you make a PM with someone that would seemingly have a 50/50 chance of dying?

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

Cuz braining is hard. I didn’t think about it much, which is dumb, but I was tired and wasn’t thinking anything through 

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

How do you know that?

I guess I'm just smart or whatever  no other explanation made sense and I was planning on clearing JNV for making a PM with me before I read it

Edited April 20, 2023 by Amanuensis

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I guess I'm just smart or whatever  no other explanation made sense and I was planning on clearing JNV for making a PM with me before I read it

I suppose. I had a different idea in mind for why stick might have been claiming that they knew that, which is why I refrained from guessing as I wanted to see their reason.

Though if JNV and alpha both made pm's, if we assume a two-player elim team they can't both be elims.

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I suppose. I had a different idea in mind for why stick might have been claiming that they knew that, which is why I refrained from guessing as I wanted to see their reason.

Though if JNV and alpha both made pm's, if we assume a two-player elim team they can't both be elims.

My boxings are on Stick/Silho rn. That's been my theory since Silho voted me about halfway through last cycle, and you reaching the same conclusion after vote analysis makes me feel more certain, especially since I've been village reading you (though I did suspect you were the Mobborn for a while).

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 hour ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I did.

Stick

37 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

My boxings are on Stick/Silho rn. That's been my theory since Silho voted me about halfway through last cycle

interesting

at least we can hope your heart's in the right place

37 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

, and you reaching the same conclusion after vote analysis makes me feel more certain, especially since I've been village reading you (though I did suspect you were the Mobborn for a while).

who do you think is the Mobbom now?

[Stick. she/her]

Oki can everyone please pretend I’m village for one minute and post your guess for the elim team as of this moment? I’ll start <DeTess, Mat> 

Yes Alpha created a PM with me 

@DeTess what alternate were you thinking of? 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Oki can everyone please pretend I’m village for one minute and post your guess for the elim team as of this moment? I’ll start <DeTess, Mat> 

Yes Alpha created a PM with me 

@DeTess what alternate were you thinking of? 

So you’re asking us to post our elim team guesses that don’t include you?

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

 

@DeTess what alternate were you thinking of? 

I'd seen you claim seeker at the end of last cycle, so I thought it was related to that... but on a reread of your first post you actually claimed to have looked at Silho, so that was my bad.

I'll do some more people analysis tomorrow and mention who I think are most likely to be elims then. You + Silho does fit the little bit of available evidence we have so far, but I'll try to keep an open mind.

[Amanuensis he/him]

10 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

who do you think is the Mobbom now?

I think Mat tbh but that's mostly because I wasn't converted and I successfully roleblocked him, so he definitely took an action that wasn't the NK

[DeTess she/her]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I think Mat tbh but that's mostly because I wasn't converted and I successfully roleblocked him, so he definitely took an action that wasn't the NK

Did you confirm you'd be told the difference between roleblocking someone not taking an action and roleblocking someone that did?

[Stick. she/her]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So you’re asking us to post our elim team guesses that don’t include you?

Take my hypothetical green flip into account is what I’m asking 

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I think Mat tbh but that's mostly because I wasn't converted and I successfully roleblocked him, so he definitely took an action that wasn't the NK

I think successfully roleblocked just means you weren’t redirected/roleblocked 

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I think Mat tbh but that's mostly because I wasn't converted and I successfully roleblocked him, so he definitely took an action that wasn't the NK

Well, I tried to make a PM :P.

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Take my hypothetical green flip into account is what I’m asking 

Your green flip would probably make me look at Aman and the other people who were a bit later on the e!Stick mindset.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well, I tried to make a PM :P.

Your green flip would probably make me look at Aman and the other people who were a bit later on the e!Stick mindset.

That could explain it too, I suppose. But then I'm sad the Mobborn recruited someone else over me. Every gang needs a Thug! It's practically my destiny!

ED1T:

Either way, this rules out Mat, myself, JNV, and Alpha as Araris' killer

Leaving Stick, Silho, and Detess

Edited April 20, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Amanuensis he/him]

32 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That could explain it too, I suppose. But then I'm sad the Mobborn recruited someone else over me. Every gang needs a Thug! It's practically my destiny!

ED1T:

Either way, this rules out Mat, myself, JNV, and Alpha as Araris' killer

Leaving Stick, Silho, and Detess

Silho

@_Stick_ how do you feel about executing Silho today and me roleblocking you? If he flips red but the kill still goes through, then you’re cleared

ED1T:

Bah. Just checked the OOA and the Elim Kill and Execution happen simultaneously, which means that probably won’t work. To confirm, @The Known Novel, if the Elim submitting the kill gets executed, does the kill still happen? 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

If I had to rank my willingness to exe players today it’ll have to be DeTess > May > Silho

From my perspective Silho’s vote switches EoD don’t make a ton of sense when I think about elim motives there but then again…V/V so maybe his indifference is justified if he’s elim 

[Amanuensis he/him]

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

If I had to rank my willingness to exe players today it’ll have to be DeTess > May > Silho

From my perspective Silho’s vote switches EoD don’t make a ton of sense when I think about elim motives there but then again…V/V so maybe his indifference is justified if he’s elim 

Really? I find him switching from Araris to Archer in the final hour as indication that’s when the NK was decided 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

@_Stick_ what made you flip back to elim reading me?

[Stick. she/her]

23 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Really? I find him switching from Araris to Archer in the final hour as indication that’s when the NK was decided 

I think that with the knowledge of Archer’s flip and my flip, the elims could have used Araris as their next mix. Especially because Archer was pushing for an araris exe. And also I just doubt that the kill was decided in that half-hour unless both elims were present in the thread. For example, I don’t think that a team of DeTess+Silho works unless the Araris kill was decided before DeTess logged off for the cycle. 

Edit:

@Matrim's Dice just PoE - I guess I could see E!Aman as well, especially because I can see the araris kill as him trying to deviate from his recent elim meta. But I’m leaning slightly more towards not-elim Aman at this moment 

Edit2:

I lied, not just PoE. You unwilling to break the tie is still a red flag 

Edit3:

The reason I’m leaning not-elim Aman atm is because the way he sheeped my votes last cycle to try and gauge which exes I’d be alright with to try and figure out who I’m ‘teamed’ with is  giving solvey vibes :thumbsup: 

Edited April 20, 2023 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

As I stated before, with PMs requiring an action, JNV and Alpha are ruled out as Araris killer. Granted, e!Stick could be lying about e!Alpha creating a PM, but I have been leaning v!Alpha even before that revelation, so I’m willing to believe it for now. (Same could be said about a JNV/Aman team, or a Mat/Aman team, but that would require me entertaining a reality I’m not a village, which I obviously won’t do )

My Silho suspicion essentially boils down to two things; his uncharacteristically helpful / not trollish C1 (from my experience, v!Silho has no compunctions against muddying the waters by being intentionally suspicious, hence me asking him straight up if he was an informer and his subsequent outright denial) and the fact that he more or less voted everyone other than Stick and broke the penultimate tie in her favor by voting for Archer seemingly unprompted.

Stick suspicion is mostly gut based on her being dodgy on page two or three when I asked her for opinions on Araris, Archer, and me, to which she responded “one of you is probably Mobborn.” That and the fact that she decided to Seek Silho, who I don’t think was a realistic C1 NK candidate

Edited April 20, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

Tbf I had you as my scan target for most of the cycle right up till after you were up for the exe for a while. Who would have been a realistic C1 NK target? Silho was never up for the exe and me, Archer, and Mat all publicly Village read him. 

Edit:

I’ll take a look at an E!Silho game later tonight and rethink some things. @Shining Silhouette do you remember any elim games of yours off the top of your head? 

Edited April 20, 2023 by _Stick_

[Mat he/him]

32 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I lied, not just PoE. You unwilling to break the tie is still a red flag 

Okay sure, but I'm fairly confident that's just a me thing and not specific to e!me. Like maybe I'm just completely hopeless when it comes to self meta but I feel like it wouldn't be too hard to find v!me hedging around a tie. That's just something I do when I'm not confident in my reads, which was the case yesterday with the trains that existed.

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

As I stated before, with PMs requiring an action, JNV and Alpha are ruled out as Araris killer. Granted, e!Stick could be lying about e!Alpha creating a PM, but I have been leaning v!Alpha even before that revelation, so I’m willing to believe it for now. (Same could be said about a JNV/Aman team, or a Mat/Aman team, but that would require me entertaining a reality I’m not a village, which I obviously won’t do )

Oh yeah I forgot to say that I did get roleblocked, so it checks out for your alibi. Realistically trains today should be kept to DeTess/Stick/Shining.

My problem with e!Shining is that he just felt so pure to me but I do need to reread. And you make a good point about Stick. I don't remember how static e!Shining is with his votes but that statistic could be potentially helpful here.

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That and the fact that she decided to Seek Silho, who I don’t think was a realistic C1 NK candidate

Stick ninja'd me on this point, but I actually disagree. Shining was nearly universally village read and hadn't posted any super strong opinions, so it would have been a decently low info kill on someone people most likely weren't gonna vote today anyway.

I want to reread before I vote, but as I alluded to above, it'll be between Stick/DeTess/Shining. No point in looking outside that pool for now. One of the PMs could be fake but the Tineye could always call that out, unless they're evil. But I think faked PMs will be kept to a minimum just because of the possibility of a v!Tineye.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[DeTess she/her]

This is mostly a bit of  warm-up post for analysis I want to do tomorrow.

Assuming that Amanuensis has been speaking the truth about their actions and the actions done unto them, and that there are only 2 elims:

the following group contains at most 1 elim:

• Mat
• aman
• JNV
• Alpha

The following group contains at least 1 elim

• Stick
• Silho
• DeTess (listing myself for completion's sake, but I won't be considering myself as part of this group going forward).

So between stick and Silho, at least 1 of them is evil, and as I pointed out earlier about the votes, chances are decent that if one is evil, both of them are.
Tomorrow, I'll spend some time looking through stick's and silho's posts in depth and try to figure out which of them I'd prefer executing first. If I have time, I'll also look through the other 4 to see which of them I'd suspect most as stick or silho's team-mate if the other one flips village or mobborn.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

My Silho suspicion essentially boils down to two things; his uncharacteristically helpful / not trollish C1

Just for the record

I consider my actions very unhelpful thank you very much

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

(from my experience, v!Silho has no compunctions against muddying the waters by being intentionally suspicious, hence me asking him straight up if he was an informer and his subsequent outright denial)

actually i was just next-level trolling you by making you think I was suspicious by being not suspicious

next game I'll be insuspiciously suspiciously insuspicious and that'll really get you

 

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

and the fact that he more or less voted everyone other than Stick and broke the penultimate tie in her favor by voting for Archer seemingly unprompted.

I interpreted you asking if I was okay with switching off Archer as a request to switch. Would have stayed on Araris if not cause bedtime¯\_(ツ)_/¯

12 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I’ll take a look at an E!Silho game later tonight and rethink some things. @Shining Silhouette do you remember any elim games of yours off the top of your head? 

QF62 was my second SE game and my only elim (conversion) game with @Matrim's Dice

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

So between stick and Silho, at least 1 of them is evil

Don't forget about yourself!

[Stick. she/her]

Can someone explain to me how I’d make up something like having scanned Silho? Even if he and I are elims together, how can I be sure that an Augur didn’t target him? That’s a lie easily disproven and risky for both e!me and e!silho. It doesn’t make a lot of strategic sense.