Mid-Range Game 63: The Outcasts of Tyrian Falls

[Amanuensis he/him]

19 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'd wager there's at least one Mobborn on that list as of this cycle >:)

I'd like more than that >> or else

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Operation NK and Conversion Immunity is currently very successful. Operation Survive Today has a forecasted success rate of 50%.

I do stand by my statement and the further thought that discussion distinguishing between exeing the two hostile factions is a waste of time that elims of either flavor can hide behind.

I'm thinking that Aman has been reluctant to kill me earlier than absolutely necessary in the recent games where he's been elim and I'm village, so I'm hesitantly reading him village for voting me. I give him enough credit to subvert that of course, but I'll be hopeful for now. Archer, in my memory, has no reluctance toward killing me regardless of his alignment.

As for conversions, I'll note that historically I have a horrendous win rate in MRs, so nobody should want me on their team. 

[Stick. she/her]

32 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Those darn A-usernames >>

S-username supremacy amirite 

15 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'd like more than that >> or else

alright ok tbh I was wrong about Archer last game so I'm gonna leave him to marinate for some time before passing a judgement. Araris hasn't said much, but I'm not against his exe and he's also probably the incompetent tineye fr cuz who even checks the OoA for actions that aren't their own? :P. Your confusion around the whole cycle/turns thing indicates you probably don't have teammates (so village or mobborn) but that's easy to fake so... 

thoughts on Archer and Mat?

[Amanuensis he/him]

17 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

S-username supremacy amirite 

alright ok tbh I was wrong about Archer last game so I'm gonna leave him to marinate for some time before passing a judgement. Araris hasn't said much, but I'm not against his exe and he's also probably the incompetent tineye fr cuz who even checks the OoA for actions that aren't their own? :P. Your confusion around the whole cycle/turns thing indicates you probably don't have teammates (so village or mobborn) but that's easy to fake so... 

thoughts on Archer and Mat?

Wrong as in you thought he was elim but he was village?

Still deciding on them atm. For now I don't have any super solid reads, but I'm looking for holes where I'm seeing them and poking atm

[Araris Valerian he/him]

22 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

he's also probably the incompetent tineye

This is half correct.

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This is half correct.

Take that back! >:(

@Matrim's Dice I notice you're still voting JNV. Given how much time has passed (and us now being on the third page) is there anywhere else you might want to vote? Am considering Stick myself tbh

Edited April 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Take that back! >:(

I'm trying to think of something clever to say in response to this and coming up pretty blank, which unfortunately seems to imply I was correct. But perhaps I should withhold judgement until my (un)timely death occurs.

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Take that back! >:(

@Matrim's Dice I notice you're still voting JNV. Given how much time has passed (and us now being on the third page) is there anywhere else you might want to vote? Am considering Stick myself tbh

Mostly I’m still voting JNV because they haven’t posted, so it’s kind of like, what’s the point of that vote at all if I move it now, but I don’t think I’ve read carefully enough to vote anyone else atm anyway. I’m considering Stick as well but I don’t think I’ll move yet.

I’ll try not to use my schedule as an excuse to be lazy too much :P. I’ll do a more thorough read tonight, hopefully 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Amanuensis he/him]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm trying to think of something clever to say in response to this and coming up pretty blank, which unfortunately seems to imply I was correct. But perhaps I should withhold judgement until my (un)timely death occurs.

((Spider-Man: No Way Home Spoiler))

Spoiler

 

 

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Mostly I’m still voting JNV because they haven’t posted, so it’s kind of like, what’s the point of that vote at all if I move it now, but I don’t think I’ve read carefully enough to vote anyone else atm anyway. I’m considering Stick as well but I don’t think I’ll move yet.

I’ll try not to use my schedule as an excuse to be lazy too much :P. I’ll do a more thorough read tonight, hopefully 

Cool

Matrim until that happens

ED1T:

VC:
JNV(1): Mat
Araris(1): Archer
Stick(1): Silho
Mat(3): Alpha, Stick, Aman
DeTess(1): Araris

Edited April 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Wrong as in you thought he was elim but he was village?

Yep

22 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This is half correct.

I’m picking up what (I think) you’re putting down. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

((Spider-Man: No Way Home Spoiler))

*Is actually just a Competent Tineye*

Edited April 18, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[Amanuensis he/him]

It was at this moment I realized the role is Inefficient Tineye, and Stick was just slandering porch bro >:(

[Stick. she/her]

Yeah I did think it was incompetent but wasn’t a hundred percent sure xD

[Amanuensis he/him]

Back to Mat then >:( but I'm watching O.O

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

S-username supremacy amirite 

Stick this tier list might have to make me unvote you

---

JNV has been online since the game began, I believe. 

[Stick. she/her]

12 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Stick this tier list might have to make me unvote you

---

JNV has been online since the game began, I believe. 

Woah. SS is also Skaa Survivors and nothing else nope. 0_0 You might be on to something.

I wouldn't read too much into that - they've gone entire turns without posting in the thread while having been online as a villager before  Though admittedly that might've been because they were preoccupied with PMs then.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Woah. SS is also Skaa Survivors and nothing else nope. 0_0 You might be on to something.

Lol my subconscious has my back

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I wouldn't read too much into that - they've gone entire turns without posting in the thread while having been online as a villager before  Though admittedly that might've been because they were preoccupied with PMs then.

I mean it's a nine person game so it would be good to have as many of us active as possible

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Man this Cycle is already dead silent what the heck. Looks good for Mat

I don't think I'll be able to be online after this. See ya next cycle peeps

stick

araris

 

[JNV]

Ok rollovers not at a great time for me cause its like just long enough after I go to sleep its annoying to stay up and then Ive got school so yeah kind of grr but oh well here now and yeah I popped on a while ago just to like check my alignment and stuff but didnt really have time to say anything

So alignment stuff honestly the evils stand to gain a little by letting the Mobberns gain ground against the village cause then the chances theres a backfire increase dramatically but thats the sort of trick that only works once and it means the village is fighting a war on two fronts so like the Mobbern evil alliance works best while Mobbern numbers are low which is like now wait hang on if the Mobbern dont know who each other are then couldnt you just like say oh hey I converted you to the Mobbern or wait do you get told when you convert you probably do never mind

Honestly from the role names I feel like this was just an attempt to confuse us and it sure is working um do you have to submit an order to make a PM or can you just make one but then not take an action cause like if possible Id like to get talky talky 

[Mat he/him]

I'm a bit annoyed that I'm seemingly being elim read for my low engagement when I've explained why I'm less engaged, but I'll try to get over it since it's happened before and maybe is just a sign I shouldn't play games I know in advance I'll primarily have to skim :P.

But to appease the masses, reread notes:

• I stand by v!Shining.
• Also stand by leaning elim for Stick-- things like that joke that pinged me early, and her vote on me, which I don't elim read for the vote itself. I more elim read the fact that it's stayed static on me the entire cycle. In recent games, v!Stick has been very fluid in her voting, poking different people, trying to stoke discussion. Here, though, she's clearly been content to park on me.
• I don't really elim read Alpha, but it's hard to tell when they've never been evil.
• DeTess has posted a lot. Not one is player-related. I... don't know how to feel about that. I like Araris pointing it out though.
• I want to elim read Aman for asking to be recruited to the Mobborn cause that seems like the kind of big-brain play he'd come up with, but I can't bring myself to do it :P.
• I kinda v!read Archer, but dunno why he's voting Araris. Shining's also voting there. Why? @Archer @Shining
• JNV also went for the not-talking-about-people-playing-the-game thing. I almost want to call them not-Mobborn for spelling it the same wrong way twice, but that's dangerous. (Looking at you, Rsyn Kas :eyes:)

---

Shining
Archer, Araris
Alpha, Aman, JNV
DeTess
Stick

---

JNV, Stick

Edited April 19, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

Alright, Mat Aman (sorry if those were the wrong colors, I'm in black and white rn. Don't ask. I'm clearing Mat and voting Aman). My reasons for this are thus:

I believe it is plausible that the reason Aman is so "eager" is because he wants to draw out the Mobborn (assuming there's just one C1) and getting them exed. This theory might make more sense to you if I state that I think 5S:1M:3I is quite possible. I could see an elim thinking they have a large enough amount of members that they could lose one to get rid of the Mobborn issue. They would still have three members in C2 if one of them isn't exed, and though I feel Aman would be viewed under great scrutiny, should a Mobborn die. So, for example, here's a scenario we could end up in: e!Aman in a three elim team gets the Mobborn to attempt to convert him (once again, assuming there's one. Which would make sense if there are three elims), resulting in the death of the Mobborn. Which would mean no more Mobborn for them to deal with. Then, at the rollover of C2 the Mobborn is pronounced dead, as well as the exed, which we'll say is a villager. Now, in this scenario, there are four villagers to three elim. Easy work for the elim team to mop up one skaa to reach a parity.

In fact, this seems so easy that I doubt it is the case. It is also possible that there is 6S:1M:2I, which it seems most people believe. In this, it could be that e!Aman baits the Mobborn in the same way, gets them killed, then somehow makes it seem like they tried to convert a player who is v but the elims want out of the game. 

Any thoughts? Any points I made that want clarification? Any places where you just didn't follow my thought process? Please ask, and I'll do my best to answer as well as I can. TBH, I would probably get lost if I had to try to interpret what I'm saying here.

Also, I have a question: do the Informants know who the Mobborn are? It probably says in the rules, so I'm sorry XD

EDIT: ninja'd by Mat. Didn't see his post until after mine.

Edited April 19, 2023 by TheAlpha929
Fixing color

[DeTess she/her]

So, I think enough has been said for me to comment on some players by now? I know less than half of the players playing here though, so I don't have any reads based on past playstyles or whatever.

First of all, I feel like Aman is very likely village this cycle, and should be considered to be a mobborn starting next cycle (unless a mobborn dies to the kill this cycle). Aman asking to be converted Feels like a village thing because, unless something has changed in their playstyle in the years I was gone, it is so superfluous. If I was the mobborn I'd like to have a skilled analysis focused player like Aman on my side ASAP, so e!aman would realize there was little need to expose himself to added scrutiny if the mobborn where to die early on as a result of trying to convert an informer by making his desire to be converted so obvious.

Reading through Alpha's posts my initial assessment was 'mildly confused newish player giving me a mild village vibe' until their last post. Though I disagree with the conclusions in their last post it shows someone quite willing to use their head, which goes contrary to the earlier impression I got and even makes me wonder if that might have been intentional to throw people off, or if at some point in the intervening time they had a good chat with the (other) members of the elim team in their doc. Current vibe is mild elim.

I think Matrim's dice was just starting out when I stopped playing SE, but I don't remember much about their play style. Before I really give an initial read on them there's  question I'd like answered. @Matrim's Dice, you said earlier that you considered asking to be recruited to be a serious elim tell. Yet you put Aman, who was most active in that regard in the middle of the pack when you gave your reads. Can you explain your read on Aman more?

Archer seems to have no trouble sharing reads on other players so that makes me read mildly village on them, but once some of those people they interacted with flip I'll definitely take another look. team composition speculation is one of those things that looks good but is ultimately really NAI though, so that brings them a bit closer to Neutral for me.

stick... I'm unsure off. Some of their posts read pretty village, with how they're teasing out interaction and reads from other people with their banter. However, some stuff, like their interpretation of the bit by Archer that I was confused on don't sit well with me (that particular interpretation seemed to be throwing suspicion at archer in an indirect way). Confusion at the way the kill redirect worked could go either way, but feels slightly more elimmy to me, as it's the kind of thing one might fake to try and look village. Overall read is neutralish, leaning slight elim.

Shining Silhouette I am unsure on. They've posted a lot, yet just about all of it was pretty NAI. Some banter, but very little that actually means anything or seemed intended to get someone to talk more. We had a short interaction but they didn't really get stuck in. @Shining Silhouette could you give me a read on a couple people? For example, why did you swap your vote to Araris? For now it's a dead neutral read, but if they continue to play in such a noncommittal way I'll be down to execute them sooner rather than later.

I've got very little on Araris, mostly because the only person they really seemed to comment on was me, and the rest seemed ot be mostly banter. @Araris Valerianare there any other people you have opinions on.

For JNV, their one post was pretty NAI, so I guess they're on the same pile as Silhouette. Dead Neutral, but I really hope to see more from them sooner rather than later. @JNV Do you have any other opinions you want to share?

For now my vote is on TheAlpha929.

Edited April 19, 2023 by DeTess
grammar

[Stick. she/her]

Some thoughts on Alpha:

20 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

It sorta feels like he might be leaving room for himself to be distant, to help sort of influence people that he’s not suspicious, he’s just distracted. And I know alignments are random, but if they seem unbalanced TKN might switch Mat around to Elim, or even Mobborn. If you follow those thoughts, great! If you didn’t I can try to go in deeper detail later on.

 

5 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I believe it is plausible that the reason Aman is so "eager" is because he wants to draw out the Mobborn (assuming there's just one C1) and getting them exed. This theory might make more sense to you if I state that I think 5S:1M:3I is quite possible. I could see an elim thinking they have a large enough amount of members that they could lose one to get rid of the Mobborn issue. They would still have three members in C2 if one of them isn't exed, and though I feel Aman would be viewed under great scrutiny, should a Mobborn die. So, for example, here's a scenario we could end up in: e!Aman in a three elim team gets the Mobborn to attempt to convert him (once again, assuming there's one. Which would make sense if there are three elims), resulting in the death of the Mobborn. Which would mean no more Mobborn for them to deal with. Then, at the rollover of C2 the Mobborn is pronounced dead, as well as the exed, which we'll say is a villager. Now, in this scenario, there are four villagers to three elim. Easy work for the elim team to mop up one skaa to reach a parity.

In fact, this seems so easy that I doubt it is the case. It is also possible that there is 6S:1M:2I, which it seems most people believe. In this, it could be that e!Aman baits the Mobborn in the same way, gets them killed, then somehow makes it seem like they tried to convert a player who is v but the elims want out of the game. 

Any thoughts? Any points I made that want clarification? Any places where you just didn't follow my thought process? Please ask, and I'll do my best to answer as well as I can. TBH, I would probably get lost if I had to try to interpret what I'm saying here.

Also, I have a question: do the Informants know who the Mobborn are? It probably says in the rules, so I'm sorry XD

EDIT: ninja'd by Mat. Didn't see his post until after mine.

These couple of phrases caught my attention as I'm unsure if V!Alpha usually is self-conscious about their how their posts may be perceived. 

I went through Alpha's LG93 to see if I could find some similarities/dissimilarities. This is usually Kas' job smh.

Well so there's this post, where they add:

Quote

ED1T: Also, I find it a little suspicious that TKN voted for Stick. That kind of makes me feel like one or both of them are elims. And the reason I feel this way is that it feels like Stick is village. She’s quite active, and it just doesn’t feel like she’s an elim. TKN, on the other hand, kind of does. I don’t know much about either of their play-styles and patterns. It’s also a possibility that they’re going E/E (if I used that term correctly). Just some thoughts. Might elaborate more later.

Which...almost isn't the same?

But there's this:

Quote

Hopefully v!Cord can do something, but if Cord is evil, it'll wreak more havoc. If I can count, there are nine players left. that means there could be up to more than half of us as elims (bruh that sentence felt like it had so many issues, hopefully you get what I'm saying)

And this:

Quote

Guys, we can’t let it die just because kas is dead. I get that night cycles are pretty chill, but… nobody has anything to say? 

So, time to theorize!

Assuming that there are 3 elims, and among them there are probably 2 roles. My guess (that pretty much everyone has said) is that either Lopen (Ash) or Rushu (TJ). I also think that the other role would be Huio. Does anyone think it would be Cord? Honestly having the Herdazians on a team would be hilarious, and almost too good to be true. But it really boils down to this: e!Ash vs. e!TJ. Does anybody have any thoughts?

Which does seem in-line with their post style this game. They weren't doing much heavy theorising in LG93 like that Aman take here but that might just be the result of having gained some SE experience. So...I'm probably okay with my positive read on Alpha.

9 hours ago, JNV said:

Ok rollovers not at a great time for me cause its like just long enough after I go to sleep its annoying to stay up and then Ive got school so yeah kind of grr but oh well here now and yeah I popped on a while ago just to like check my alignment and stuff but didnt really have time to say anything

So alignment stuff honestly the evils stand to gain a little by letting the Mobberns gain ground against the village cause then the chances theres a backfire increase dramatically but thats the sort of trick that only works once and it means the village is fighting a war on two fronts so like the Mobbern evil alliance works best while Mobbern numbers are low which is like now wait hang on if the Mobbern dont know who each other are then couldnt you just like say oh hey I converted you to the Mobbern or wait do you get told when you convert you probably do never mind

Honestly from the role names I feel like this was just an attempt to confuse us and it sure is working um do you have to submit an order to make a PM or can you just make one but then not take an action cause like if possible Id like to get talky talky 

The converted player gets a free PM with the Mobborn that converted them. Thoughts on the exe? 

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also stand by leaning elim for Stick-- things like that joke that pinged me early, and her vote on me, which I don't elim read for the vote itself. I more elim read the fact that it's stayed static on me the entire cycle. In recent games, v!Stick has been very fluid in her voting, poking different people, trying to stoke discussion. Here, though, she's clearly been content to park on me

It's a 9-player game  I have less suspects to sift through. We'd barely hit rollovet. Plus, most of my vote changes occur as a result of real-time interactions so for example had Silho done something particularly off during our exchange I would've insta voted on him. 

One point in your favour is that E!Mat always v!reads me. But I'm pretty sure I called you out on that in your last elim game so it's probably not a tell I can reasonably rely on anymore. 

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

JNV also went for the not-talking-about-people-playing-the-game thing. I almost want to call them not-Mobborn for spelling it the same wrong way twice, but that's dangerous. (Looking at you, Rsyn Kas :eyes:)

Five times* xD

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ooo. I didn't realize Seeker is a Lookout this game. Thought they were a Tracker. If we have one, I recommend you target someone you expect to get NK'd tonight 

ED1T:

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm a bit annoyed that I'm seemingly being elim read for my low engagement when I've explained why I'm less engaged, but I'll try to get over it since it's happened before and maybe is just a sign I shouldn't play games I know in advance I'll primarily have to skim :P.

But to appease the masses, reread notes:

• v!Shining.
• Stick
• Alpha
• DeTess has posted a lot. Not one is player-related. I... don't know how to feel about that. I like Araris pointing it out though.
• Aman
• Archer
• JNV

---

Shining
Archer, Araris
Alpha, Aman, JNV
DeTess
Stick

FWIW I'm not elim reading you, especially not for low engagement  generally my votes early game are to put feelers out and see how I feel based on reactions and responses

Anyway, I noticed you've got Araris fairly high up but he didn't get his own line. Is it just because you liked what he pointed out about DeTess?

Edited April 19, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

Also as far as I can tell Araris criticised an entirely different thing from DeTess’s posts:

18 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

 

18 hours ago, DeTess said:

That's true, but if I had a set of analysis that pointed to one player likely being mobborn, and another set that points to another player being somewhat likely to be an elim, the second would take priority, in my mind, even if I'm less certain.

I don't like this. There's not really any practical way to distinguish between the two alignments, so this feels like the sort of theorycrafting an elim would do to look village, rather than an actual villager strategizing how to win the game.DeTess. Welcome back! 

Edit:

6 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I'm clearing Mat and voting Aman

I’ll also note that the word ‘clear’ is rather strong to be using in this context and for some reason this makes me feel even better about Alpha. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by _Stick_