Mid-Range Game 63: The Outcasts of Tyrian Falls

[DeTess she/her]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Can someone explain to me how I’d make up something like having scanned Silho? Even if he and I are elims together, how can I be sure that an Augur didn’t target him? That’s a lie easily disproven and risky for both e!me and e!silho. It doesn’t make a lot of strategic sense. 

I can take a punt at that (last post before I go to bed, so I won't respond to any arguments against untill tomorrow). You already claimed seeker in an attempt to escape the tie, which is a sensible claim (irrespective of it being false or true) as it's a fairly valuable role if it's held by the village, but I can see it being part of the elim comp as well. Since you claimed, someone was bound to ask you about the results of your action. If it was a false claim you'd have to come up with something anyway, so claiming to have scanned a team-mate who could inform you whether they had had any PM's or other disruptions (roleblock, redirect, etc.) would be safer than taking a blind guess.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Can someone explain to me how I’d make up something like having scanned Silho? Even if he and I are elims together, how can I be sure that an Augur didn’t target him? That’s a lie easily disproven and risky for both e!me and e!silho. It doesn’t make a lot of strategic sense. 

If you’re village, I reckon you just need to determine for yourself which of Silho and DeTess is Araris’ killer, then we can figure out their partner next cycle

[Stick. she/her]

8 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I can take a punt at that (last post before I go to bed, so I won't respond to any arguments against untill tomorrow). You already claimed seeker in an attempt to escape the tie, which is a sensible claim (irrespective of it being false or true) as it's a fairly valuable role if it's held by the village, but I can see it being part of the elim comp as well. Since you claimed, someone was bound to ask you about the results of your action. If it was a false claim you'd have to come up with something anyway, so claiming to have scanned a team-mate who could inform you whether they had had any PM's or other disruptions (roleblock, redirect, etc.) would be safer than taking a blind guess.

So instead of just risking outing myself as an elim, I instead go one step further and risk my entire team potentially getting outed? All it would take is one useless augur counterclaiming my action. That’s just bad play :P. 

Edit:

the obvious evil play there would be to claim a scan on araris and incriminate someone innocent and get them exe’d asap 

Edited April 20, 2023 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Matrim's Dice who were you planning on opening a PM with, btw

[Stick. she/her]

10 hours ago, DeTess said:

Silho was the only one to actually completely break the tie. If at some point in the future they were to flip elim, stick would be worth looking into.

 

Flagging this for later, could be relevant in an E!DeTess world. Advising I get exe’d the moment Silho flips red could mean DeTess/Silho E/E.

[Mat he/him]

25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Matrim's Dice who were you planning on opening a PM with, btw

You :P.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Silho

@_Stick_ how do you feel about executing Silho today and me roleblocking you? If he flips red but the kill still goes through, then you’re cleared

ED1T:

Bah. Just checked the OOA and the Elim Kill and Execution happen simultaneously, which means that probably won’t work. To confirm, @The Known Novel, if the Elim submitting the kill gets executed, does the kill still happen? 

Yes.

[Amanuensis he/him]

31 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You :P.

Hah. Figured  guess I shouldn’t have switched my block from Silho to you last second

18 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Yes.

Shame  there goes my plan to potentially clear Stick

[Stick. she/her]

I should definitely not be roleblocked anyway as that’s a waste of my role’s potential

Edit:

Going to do a little distro guessing: We have a total of 9 roles and 9 players. We have one seeker claim and one thug claim. There is confirmation that a tineye exists. We’ve had one coinshot and one augur flip. I think there miiight be one more coinshot (the OG Mobborn) and at most one soother (to counter the conversion). Unsure if a rioter exists in a game this small but considering that the effect of a rioter is essentially equal to that of a soother when it comes to vote manip…Maybe there aren’t any soothers either. If there’s no vote manip there’s no smokers. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I should definitely not be roleblocked anyway as that’s a waste of my role’s potential

That’s what an Informer would say :eyes:

[Stick. she/her]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

That’s what an Informer would say :eyes:

Watch them not put in a kill just for me >:) 

Edit:

tbh they just told me I won’t know if I’m redirected ._. But we know that to use the redirect the Lurcher must select two players as targets, and so if I were redirected chances are my action result won’t come up blank. Unless the other player they targeted tried creating a PM or took no action at all. But anyway, I don’t see why anybody would have redirected my action. 

Edit2:

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You :P.

tfw ‘tried to create a PM’ is code for ‘tried to convert you’. Technically not even a lie since that does create a PM. In other words I’m considering Mobborn!Mat. 

Edit3:

Supporting evidence is this question:

17 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Stick, are you a Mobborn?

which seems slightly performative to me in the sense that there’s no real point in asking that. If I really am Mobborn, I will obviously lie and say I’m not. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by _Stick_

[Mat he/him]

Stick idk what you want me to say lol

By your logic any of the PM pairs are Mobborn. Which I mean, possible.

[Stick. she/her]

Tahnk you for posting

Vote count when Silho clocked out for the cycle (mistaking rollovet for rollover):

JNV(1): Mat
Araris(2): Archer, Silho
Mat(3): Alpha, Stick, Aman
DeTess(1): Araris

Which indicates they could be teamed with Mat, only looking at the vote count and nothing else. But Silho mistaking the rollover time in and of itself is village indicative to me. It's hard to not know the correct rollover time when elim. 

Compare this post from QF62 with any of Silho's posts from this game. Or this post. Silho was converted to the elim faction C2, and I'm observing a lot of one-liners and short, scattered comments from Silho during C1, whereas his posts the rest of the game are lengthier, overall more structured and aimed to either defend himself or justify his votes/actions. Or to establish himself as a contributing villager by posting a wallpost of reads. Compare any of those posts to this one.

Verdict is that Silho is NOT ELIM as far as I can guess. So...I really don't know who DeTess' teammate should be if Mat is Mobborn

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Verdict is that Silho is NOT ELIM as far as I can guess. So...I really don't know who DeTess' teammate should be if Mat is Mobborn

Here here! [insert gif of the animals from Robin Hood cheering]

But why would E!stick do this

[Mat he/him]

17 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Here here! [insert gif of the animals from Robin Hood cheering]

But why would E!stick do this

The obvious answer is that you’re teamed, which was a theory anyway. The problem with that idea is that it’s obvious.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The obvious answer is that you’re teamed, which was a theory anyway. The problem with that idea is that it’s obvious.

“There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.” ― Arthur Conan Doyle,

[Amanuensis he/him]

Is anyone perhaps willing to claim Mobborn or Mobborn convert to help narrow our suspects 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Is anyone perhaps willing to claim Mobborn or Mobborn convert to help narrow our suspects 

Sure you go ahead and start

ED1T: fr tho, I'm assuming (from the ninja emote) that you know no one's gonna do that. So why post it? It feels like "hoho it sure is tough being village cause you can't trust anybody-- oh wait I know how about you just do it for us but I'll make it cutesy with a little emote" what was the point of this post Aman?

ED2T: Stick 

Edited April 21, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[Mat he/him]

Rereading, so here's my jumbled mess of thoughts.

Just found Stick/Shining's white text. Unsure if that interaction could be paired but it reminds me of me/Steel when we were teammates. This one in particular would be quite funny if they were e/e and reminds me of the kinds of things I would say with my teammate :P. Again though my problem with that pairing is that elim meta as of late has been aggressive distancing, and this doesn't fit that at all.

Wondering at the possibility that Araris was killed for suspecting DeTess.

Of all the people who asked to be converted, Shining's does read the most elim to me. Though that could be a dumb read because the Mobborn wouldn't see that as a conversion request lol

The amount of times Stick used something related to doc hypotheticals is weird to me because I've never once seen that have any impact on an elim's posts, and even though it is reasoning that is thrown out there I would think Stick would know it's probably not helpful? This was used multiple times relating to Alpha

If Stick is evil, her calling my read a tunnel and unvoting me lowkey could have been a pocketing attempt xD

Shining unvoting Araris and voting Archer could be him solidifying the elim kill choice. @Shining Silhouette, what made you switch there?

I actually don't think Shining and Stick are paired anymore. They had some potentially e/e interactions, but overall have had more interactions in general than I would expect two teammates to have. Plus, Shining missing that I voted Stick points to them not being paired. I would think that e!Shining would be hyper-aware who was voting on his teammate.

I'm actually kind of confused why Aman called Shining's D1 'uncharacteristically helpful / not trollish' lol

Okay admittedly that was less a reread and more an examination on the Stick/Shining e/e theory xD I probably should have focused on other people more but the truth is I... just feel good about everyone else, for the most part? Like Alpha I think is just village, DeTess is PoE but I like their analysis style and recent thought processes. Aman I think is village .-. Yeah. JNV is there I guess but hasn't really done anything.

The VC is just Stick voting DeTess and Aman voting Shining, right? Oh wait Alpha edited one in. Do we think the elims care more or less about the Mobborn than the village? My inclination is less since parity is parity while the village can lose to the Mobborn directly, but idk. That would make Alpha's point not really applicable cause the elims wouldn't care who the Mobborn is. It would also nullify my point about the elims baiting the Mobborn onto them, tbf :P.

Stick

• DeTess (1): _Stick_
• Shining Silhouette (1): Amanuensis
• Amanuensis (1): TheAlpha929
• _Stick_ (1): Matrim's Dice

Let the fun begin!

[Stick. she/her]

@Matrim's Dice who put in that Araris kill. If Silho and I aren’t teamed then I have to be actually insane to just up and claim a scan on him if I didn’t really do that. Think about whether a seeker makes sense in an elim team in a nine player game with this setup.
I need people to establish whether or not I could have put in the elim kill. If not, think about who could have and vote for them.

I’m convinced it’s DeTess and I’ve laid out my reasoning. I also have a niggling feeling that the Mobborn will accidentally target an elim tonight.  You know, since apparently we are all so off-base, from what I can tell.

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, so getting back to that analysis I promised.

I looked over Silho first and my opinion on them hasn't really shifted. Theirs is a posting style that any alignment could hide behind, but is definitely less helpful as a villager. In theory dead neutral, but that is more for a lack of stuff that is alignment indicative on its own, which I find suspicious.

As for stick, I am still unsure on. They feel a bit too defensive when people suspect them, which makes me lean elim, but otherwise they do seem focused on solving the game, even if they are tunneling on me. I also do agree that the whole faking a seeker thing would be a long shot, though I don't consider it impossible.

I think there might be a way to get a better read on stick. @_Stick_as you argued that it would be very risky to fake seeker, I'd love to see the results of another seek next cycle, provided you survive till then. @Amanuensisfor that purpose it might be helpful to not roleblock stick.

For now, I'll go with Silho I actually have less reasons to be suspicious of them than stick, but I think I should be able to have a better read on stick next cycle if they share another seeker scan and we know how silho flipped, while your particular playstyle makes it difficult for me to figure out what you're up to, and I'ma ffraid that won't change for the rest of the game.

Now, as for potential tea-mates for Silho and stick if they are not e/e:

Aman is very unlikely to be evil with stick, and I'm not really seeing them being evil with Silho right now either, though it's not impossible. I'm leaning village on Aman for the reasons I outlined earlier, and that hasn't changed.

matrim is unlikely to be a team-mate of stick as they where around during the end of last cycle and kept their vote on stick, which would have been really risky if they where both elims. I can see them being a team-mate for shining as they low-key stated they saw them as village, while keeping a door open for reconsideration later.

Alpha could be e!stick's team-mate. The PM thing would be easier to fake between team-mates and though alpha did put their vote on stick early they also removed it again and never did much to push that execution, so it could have been distancing. I'm not seeing much tying Silho to alpha at first glance, but nothing suggesting they can't be on the same team either. 

@JNV hasn't posted yet this cycle and only posted once last cycle, so there is no real evidence suggesting they could be team-mates with either of Silho or stick.

So, if stick/silho aren't e/e, the most likely teams I'm seeing are stick/alpha or Silho/matrim.

[Stick. she/her]

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

Alpha could be e!stick's team-mate. The PM thing would be easier to fake between team-mates and though alpha did put their vote on stick early they also removed it again and never did much to push that execution, so it could have been distancing. I'm not seeing much tying Silho to alpha at first glance, but nothing suggesting they can't be on the same team either. 

The tineye can confirm that alpha created the PM with me. This cycle they’ll be able to see the PMs created last cycle and will be able to confirm JNV’s and Alpha’s actions. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Sure you go ahead and start

ED1T: fr tho, I'm assuming (from the ninja emote) that you know no one's gonna do that. So why post it? It feels like "hoho it sure is tough being village cause you can't trust anybody-- oh wait I know how about you just do it for us but I'll make it cutesy with a little emote" what was the point of this post Aman?

ED2T: Stick 

Oh no. I was absolutely serious. In my honest opinion, the Mobborn not working with the Skaa (and vice versa) is most likely going to cost both sides a loss.

If we don't execute an Informer today, it doesn't matter if it's Mobborn or Skaa that dies to either kill. C3 it will be 2 Informers versus 3 whatevers, and treating the Mobborn like enemies will only hand victory over to the Informers.

It's part of the reason I volunteered to become a Mobborn in the first place; to encourage a truce. Since that didn't happen I have to ask someone else to take that leap of faith.

I for one have zero intention of voting Mobborn, ever, period. I don't mind which village faction wins in the end. It's going to come down to luck tbh. But I'd very much mind Informers winning.

ED1T:

@The Known Novel which team wins if the game ends with only 1 Skaa Survivor and 1 Mobborn alive? (Both wincon say outnumber, so neither or both?)

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

Has DeTess/Stick been discussed as a possibility? Just a random idea, but both of their arguments have me torn on who is the elim. So why not both?

[Mat he/him]

6 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

@Matrim's Dice who put in that Araris kill. If Silho and I aren’t teamed then I have to be actually insane to just up and claim a scan on him if I didn’t really do that. Think about whether a seeker makes sense in an elim team in a nine player game with this setup.
I need people to establish whether or not I could have put in the elim kill. If not, think about who could have and vote for them.

Maybe you did do that, then. You don’t have to be the elim killer. I realized last night that an e!Tineye could make a PM and submit a kill while being ‘cleared’ of the latter (since they can make a PM freely) which I think is my new theory since getting a pool of three on C2 feels too easy.