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WAIT @Ooklil' the Wei INTERESTING WAS A SCUMTELL

I FEEL SO VINDICATED LMAOOOOO

edit:

so uh, i’d do my normal ‘assume the wagons are different alignments and see what happens but i think v!archer is so likely it’s unnecessary, so instead i did this:

D1

The Wandering Wizard (5): xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten, _Stick_, Elkanah, Tani, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient

The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (4): The Wandering Wizard, JNV, Araris Valerian, Alvron

Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient (3): The Unknown Novel, Archer, Matrim's Dice

Matrim’s Dice (2): InfiniteInsanity, Chantara

Alvron (2): Illwei, Cash67

Kasimir (1): Kasimir

not voting: Bookwyrm, Shining Silhouette, Turtle

 

D3

 

_Stick_ (7): Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Kasimir, Chantara, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Alvron, Elkanah

Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher (2): The Unknown Novel / Ookla the Unknown, JNV

Chantara (1): _Stick_

Elkanah (1): Cash67

not voting: tani, turtle

 

D2

The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (5): Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE, Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, JNV, Cash67

Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_

Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten

xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (2): Kasimir, InfiniteInsanity

Araris Valerian (1): Archer

not voting: silho, kas, chantara, alvron, tani, elkanah

which leaves me a poe of <chantara, tani, alv, araris, xino, insanity, cash, jnv> which is bigger than the speculated elim team but not by much, especially because i’m nearly certain at least one of <chant, alv, tani> is v bc why would three elims choose to not vote at once? 

also v!elkanah is not a eod3 thing it’s a eod1 thing bc i don’t see two elims voting sequentially on the same person like that, i don’t think stick would like that

also can somebody protect kas today? 

and wait actually lemme check ooa but if vig kills the nk target does vig get the honorblade? could be helpful if someone claims

edit 2: also i speculate the reason we’re not seeing low active kills is because the elims want padding bc we have a less active elim team but i’d need to check again to make sure

Edited by ookla the POKE VOTE
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Quote

bc why would three elims choose to not vote at once? 

Quote

 we have a less active elim team 

kinda answered your own question there

Why'd you green out TUN? I think it defeats the purpose of the exercise if you mix in soft clears like Silh and presumably TUN in your eyes, but don't give what I'd consider a lock villager, Araris, at least equal treatment. Also there's a missed green on Mat and you erroneously listed Kas as a non voter D2. 

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Apologies for the double-post, I have this queued ready to go just in case.

As I expect to have hit my expiry date soon:

-I lean more strongly V on Araris than Archer. I don't think the circumstances call for an immediate revision on Archer, but I think it's worth keeping in mind that as our picture of D3 develops, it could really have been a bus that developed from far earlier in the cycle. I'd ultimately consider my V reads on Araris and Alv to be more stable than my V read of Archer.

-I want to give JNV a chance. I disliked JNV's post, but my main problem with JNV is that based on their play up to this point, I genuinely didn't read them as Evil until that Archer post, and I've MLed JNV without giving them a chance two games in a row prior to this. I guess what I'm saying is that if someone wants to push JNV the next day, unless there are worries of ties or vote manip, or unless I believe the other trains are just awful, you're going to have to do it without me. I don't really want to ML JNV for a third time in a row this way. A guy's gotta draw the line somewhere.

-I am happy potentially revising the Insanity light doc clear. Not sure at this stage.

-My functional pool for the next Day would be: <Turtle, Xino>, with a side of Elk and TUN. I am not unsympathetic to the notion it would be odd for two Elims to be active at EoD but note that Stick and Elk were not at cross-purposes the way Elk and Alv were. Given no strong priors between Elk and Alv, it also does make me wonder if Elk's Alv obsession reflects a connection via a third teammate.

-With Turtle, I think the case is simply that Turtle is a habitual non-voter, and I think this makes the votes that Turtle does make significant. I think it matters that the one vote Turtle made on Bookwyrm represents a volte face from the previous cycle, and comes as Stick was endangered potentially by a two vote train and then remained stable. That's also a factor that Stick conveniently ignored in her analysis. I don't take Turtle's train analysis to be particularly significant or indicative of V!Turtle because Turtle did that in LG89 as well. I'd also add that I fully can see E!Turtle wanting to D1 V!Illwei.

-With Xino, I am hesitant. I don't fully see E!Xino making the weird D1 slip-up. But I think where I am at, fundamentally, is that I don't see E!Xino making the slip-up he did, but I don't know I see V!Xino doing that either. The D2 Elk vote is odd and felt a touch opportunistic but also self-presy, and I don't know what to make of it since Xino was definitely endangered. I don't like how ready Stick was to jump on Xino, but that was so early on D3 I could easily see it being a distancing move. IDK, @Araris Valerian, interested in what you make of it. The real thing about Xino that bugs me is that Xino isn't really present and is clearly disengaged from this game. And I think this fits into a clear pattern of behaviour here where Xino has a greater tendency to detach from a game, partly prompted by RL circumstances, and has a greater motivation to get back into it when Village, not when Evil.

I'm going to post this here again:

unknown.png

He is inactive both when Village and when Evil, but he predominantly skews inactive when Evil. I do believe a large number of these circumstances are RL-related, but I also think that there's a clear pattern of behaviour here, that is, V!Xino is more motivated to come back, despite RL defeaters, than E!Xino is. I think that significant orange skew there is too large to be dismissed. I point as well to the recent BT3 (not included in this dataset), where E!Xino once again displayed the same pattern of behaviour.

unknown.png

Xino is also highly reactive this game, and I think the biggest lesson from [REACTIVITY] is just that Xino is fundamentally less reactive when Village. The parity in reactivity scores only says we can't clear Xino this game, but it's entirely an open question as to which Xino is playing. I lean E!Xino right now.

-I sort of feel one of <TUN, JNV> is likely to be Evil, and I lean TUN at this juncture. I don't know if I feel if the entire Elim team votes together: sure, it's possible, but you really commit to this sort of thing if you have the votes, and if they did, we shouldn't have had the seven vote train we did. I don't disagree it's possible Stick saw the Archer votes and decided to get opportunistic, but in that world, we have to look at where the other votes might be. (Worth thinking through, but not with me still groggy and seven minutes to rollover as I type this.)

-It does still feel like Stick was ultimately bussed at some point, actively or passively. The votes were close at the time Silho hopped on, and JNV going Archer might have made a fight of it, but then that stopped when Elk and Chantara voted.

-Inb4 the entire Elim team exists in the set of people who were sick or otherwise had RL issues. I say this despite also being sick >>

-GO GERMANY!

That's it from me. See you guys on the other side, or not.

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LG91 Day 4: Destination

Death stalked through the packed dirty streets of Earthen Truth.

On this night, Kvaseth shadowed him.

He squeezed past clusters of Shin, the faded brown of his hooded cloak bringing about little comment. Near the vineyards and mountain slopes, it would have. But Earthen Truth was meant to be a trap for the Tukari and warriors, those who subtracted were all over the city.

In Earthen Truth, Kvaseth was just another killer among others.

"What are you doing?" the spren asked, flitting about his shoulder.

"Shhh," he murmured, absently. "I'm following him."

"Why?"

"Because I think he's Tukari," Kvaseth said.

"Are the Tukari bad?" she asked. An odd question for a windspren, Kvaseth thought. But he supposed it was odd enough that this windspren seemed to have taken an interest in him.

"Maybe," he said, after a long moment's pause. "They desecrate the stone. But this one. He kills others for the Blades of the Heralds. So yes, he is bad." He hesitated. "And I'm trying to stop him before he kills more people." Saying it aloud, it felt more weighty. Like his stone. Like an oath.

"Good," the windspren said.

He looked at her.

"It's important. Feels important."

"Yeah," said Kvaseth. "It is."

-

The Tukari, if he was Tukari, for Kvaseth had his doubts, no matter how diligently he studied the patterns of Earthen Truth, paused outside an all-too-familiar window. A light glowed through the window, and Kvaseth swore quietly to himself.

The killer he was hunting wasn't going after a bearer of an Honorblade tonight.

He was aiming to strike at the High Council themselves.

He yelled and charged, sword hissing free of the scabbard in a lunge.

No more killing. No more subtracting. No more, save for this one. He had already sold his soul as collateral, years ago, after all.

Startled, the killer spun about, and Kvaseth's sword slashed out in a bright arc, cleaving through his calf.

Blood spurted out. A bright red, one that never ceased to startle Kvaseth. He thought he'd never get used to it.

Kvaseth returned to Windstance, grimly satisfied. He'd hit something vital, at least.

"You," snarled the killer.

"What?" said a voice Kvaseth knew only too well. Oh, the great storming blithering fool.

The killer seemed to gather his strength for a lunge. Kvaseth charged to stop him, shoving him aside. He felt a sharp, deep pain in his stomach.

Oh. He'd miscalculated. Not a sword.

Knives.

The killer stabbed him, again and again. Kvaseth did what you almost never did: he dropped his sword. It wasn't going to help in a knife fight. He scrabbled for advantage, slamming his fist into the killer's elbow again and again until the knife dropped from the killer's fingers.

He was bleeding out, Kvaseth remembered. His stomach was on fire. It was a matter of time. He just had to hold on.

Hell of a way to go, Kvaseth figured. He never thought he'd end up saving Vartan's life, but you never chose who you were protecting. Esaan would've understood, he thought. He found himself smiling, even through the pain, as he struggled to hold the killer down until the Tukari hireling grew limp.

And then, only then, Kvaseth let go, allowed himself to roll off and just lie on the packed dirt.

The light of the windspren winked, somewhere overhead. He wished he could figure out why she looked so worried. So terrified.

"Tukari assassin," Kvaseth gasped, as Vartan's thunderous face swam into view.

"I know that," Vartan snapped. "What did you think you were doing?"

"Saving you," Kvaseth managed. So tired. The world swam at the edges. "Keeping you alive. Doing what Esaan told me to do. Making it right."

"Subtracting never did," Vartan scowled. "I never understood you. You were one who adds. And you threw all of that away to pick up a sword, to subtract of all the damned things you could do!" He grabbed Kvaseth by the shoulders, shaking him. 

It hurt. It hurt so much, but he couldn't seem to find the strength to protest.

"I never understood what Esaan saw in you. She always insisted that there was something more, something great. She was a great fool."

"Once," Kvaseth whispered, "Nurturing the land, bringing forth life...Once I believed as you did. The words of the shamans were to me as breath and water. But when the raiders came, and no one did anything...how could I continue to believe? When the choice was between fire and the death of everything that mattered and the sword...If a man's philosophy does not let him protect his people, his home, and his family...what good can it do for the world?"

"It is not your place to question the shamans," Vartan said. 

There was the spren again. Kvaseth thought he had seen her, so many times, on his late night walks through Earthern Truth. Funny little spren.

The memories were slipping back, memories of blood. Kneeling in the burning fields, cradling his little ones in his arms, blood all over his hands.

He had picked up the sword and damned himself and it hadn't even mattered. The raiders had gotten there first. Killed them all. All his little ones. Even Inis. She had died trying to protect them. He had been...he had been...

Too late.

Despair rose inside him, so thick he could choke on it, like the stench of soot and ash and smoke in his lungs, like the sharp copper scent of spilled blood, the iron tang of the scythe he'd snatched up and used to kill two of the raiders.

"So pick something else," the spren said. Her shape winked, uncertainly. A flare of pale light in the darkness. "You can do that, right? Choose to protect. Pick a better set of beliefs."

It was so close he could almost reach out and put his hand on it.

"The Words," she urged him. "Say them. Believe them. Start again, Kvaseth. Choose better this time."

He smiled. A funny idea, that. Starting again. Choosing better.

As though he could undo it all. He would have given anything, anything at all to be running through the fields again, to hear them laughing, to gather them up in his arms again.

"It isn't possible," Vartan said. "It isn't possible!"

"Kvaseth," the spren called. Urgency. He didn't understand why. "You have to say the Words!"

"Life..." Kvaseth whispered. "...Before...death."

He was walking along a path of packed dirt, along a familiar little crooked road. 

"It is a lie," Vartan growled. "They are gone! They are gone for good!"

"Say them all," urged the spren.

"Strength," Kvaseth managed. He needed strength. He reached out and grasped the wooden bars of the gate, undid the latch, and let himself through. And beyond, sprawling as far as the eye could see, were rich fields of golden grain, ripening. He brushed his hand through the stalks and laughed. "...Before weakness."

He walked through the fields, first. And then slowly, he broke into a jog, and then a run.

Funny that he no longer hurt.

The weight of the sword was the first to go. And then the stone. The stone he had carried for so long, a stone to match the one in his heart, the deaths he had carried with him.

Laughter. He heard them laughing.

His children, his wife, calling to him.

"Journey," Kvaseth whispered.

But his journey had come to an end. He had found his destination.

He had come home, at long last.

The last wisps of light faded away as his eyes closed for the last time.

Kvaseth died smiling.

 

Kasimir was killed! They were a member of the Shin High Council! He also wrote this Death RP!

 

A Highstorm arrived! Everyone carrying an Honorblade gained 2 Stormlight. (If I didn't already get it to you, let me know.)

 

The turn will end on Thursday, December 1st at 11:00 PM PST.

 

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle- Evelt-son-Urtal
  2. @Araris Valerian - Hadrian-son-Penrod
  3. @The Unknown Novel - Dali-son-Nar
  4. The Wandering Wizard - Tweedle-son-son-Dumb - Shin High Council
  5. Ookla the Tall / Matrim's Dice - Dazi-son-ron - Shin High Council
  6. @JNV - Jen-child-Verin
  7. Ookla the Perpetual / The Bookwyrm Rizam-son-Azram Shin High Council
  8. @Shining Silhouette - Cheshire-son-Cat
  9. @Ookla the Forgotten / xinoehp512 - Jet-son-Blanc
  10. Kasimir - Kvaseth-son-Wysan - Shin High Council
  11. @InfiniteInsanity
  12. @Chantara
  13. _Stick_ - Tukari Invader, Bearer of Shalash's Honorblade
  14. @Cash67 - Egg-son-Chicken
  15. Illwei Shin High Council, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade
  16. @Archer - Tweedle-son-Dee
  17. @Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi
  18. @Tani - Daalna
  19. @Elkanah - Sun-son-son-Tsu
  20. Ookla the Omnicient / Szeth_Pancakes - Shin High Council

 

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Well that blows up my theory about them gunning for the Shaman. Kas had a slip eslry in the game that indicated he wasn't that role, so this was probably just to hamstring the PM network and kill off a vocal player. I find it interesting that Turtle called the shot. @Alvrondo we know if the protection blade is in village hands? E!Turtle's ask would be strange if it is. I'm assuming you got an info dump from Kas.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

Nooooo Kas! We will rise to this occasion and do you proud.

I'll do my very best

Who're ya voting for? 

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36 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

Youknowwhat why not, I trust Poke Vote, may as well.

JNV

I'll reread stuff and see if I get a read on JNV. Until then, my vote stays. Probably.

tani why do u trust me

like genuinely what have i done to make you think that lol

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2 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

tani why do u trust me

like genuinely what have i done to make you think that lol

That thing about the reads game in a not-active-enough night thread felt vil to me.

That and gut.

You just feel very... earnest to me ig? Idk exactly...

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8 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

That thing about the reads game in a not-active-enough night thread felt vil to me.

That and gut.

You just feel very... earnest to me ig? Idk exactly...

ok but like here’s the thing

you’re in my poe

you match the description of a low active elim team with low stakes d1

so like would you mind doing that reread on jnv? bc i’d definitely prefer for you to vote on someone you have a strong read on over just sheeping. I dont want what happened with the bookwyrm ml to happen here, especially when we dont have kas to tell us we’re all being dumb. 

and like there’s this niggling thought of ‘maybe this is tmi!tani’ so uh

all that being said you can totally get out if my poe, you just haven’t given v vibes yet so

edit: and like i totally understand the gut read thing i often have trouble putting my reads into words

edit 2: i also felt very earnest in qf63 and kas can tell you how that went :P

edit 3: archer you “i find it interesting’ is scaring me :P

i just called the kas kill bc it fit w the kills we’ve been seeing lately: killing thread leaders/towncore and leaving low actives alive.

Edited by ookla the POKE VOTE
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I think either Cash or TUN could be elim as well, based on the first VC we got D3. The votes on Archer and Xino could have an attempt to see what sticks. Really my only village credence for Cash is the Illwei kill thing which is kinda flimsy.

I’m still bothered by @Elkanah following Xino’s vote twice with no explanation in D1.

Xino probably looks better now? I don’t think it was clear at that point that Stick was in danger, so there’s not really a great reason to draw attention to another elim.

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3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think either Cash or TUN could be elim as well, based on the first VC we got D3. The votes on Archer and Xino could have an attempt to see what sticks. Really my only village credence for Cash is the Illwei kill thing which is kinda flimsy.

I’m still bothered by @Elkanah following Xino’s vote twice with no explanation in D1.

Xino probably looks better now? I don’t think it was clear at that point that Stick was in danger, so there’s not really a great reason to draw attention to another elim.

thoughts on a cash/tun/jnv team or is cash/tun either/or? 

i think i gave tun a v read bc he voted along w stick and i’m not sure stick would follow a teammates vote like that but it could totally happen

edit: also gave elk v points for voting along w stick quite closely but again that’s a soft v

Edited by ookla the POKE VOTE
added ‘or’ between ‘team’ and ‘is’ bc apparently i cant write
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8 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

thoughts on a cash/tun/jnv team is cash/tun either/or? 

i think i gave tun a v read bc he voted along w stick and i’m not sure stick would follow a teammates vote like that but it could totally happen

I think at that point Kas looked susceptible to voting on Archer, so creating a viable counter train might have been the elim play there. TUN is also the player that stands out to me as most likely to kill Illwei N1. And it could be all of them, I think. Unless that makes D1 or D2 VCs have too much red in one place. 

Hmm D2 would have just stick and TUN voting for Szeth, so that’s weird if TUN is elim.

And if we assume that the D2 Bookwyrm train had at least one elim, from my perspective that is either you, Cash, or JNV.

I was thinking if the elims all voted D1 and spread then e!TUN is the elim on Szeth. And JNV is the Bookwyrm voter elim.

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Spoiler

 

The Wandering Wizard (5): xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten, _Stick_, Elkanah, Tani, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient

The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (4): The Wandering Wizard, JNV, Araris Valerian, Alvron

Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient (3): The Unknown Novel, Archer, Matrim's Dice

Matrim’s Dice (2): InfiniteInsanity, Chantara

Alvron (2): Illwei, Cash67

Kasimir (1): Kasimir

not voting: Bookwyrm, Shining Silhouette, Turtle

 

D3

 

_Stick_ (7): Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Kasimir, Chantara, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Alvron, Elkanah

Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher (2): The Unknown Novel / Ookla the Unknown, JNV

Chantara (1): _Stick_

Elkanah (1): Cash67

not voting: tani, turtle

 

D2

The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (5): Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE, Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, JNV, Cash67

Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_

Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten

xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (2): Kasimir, InfiniteInsanity

Araris Valerian (1): Archer

not voting: silho, kas, chantara, alvron, tani, elkanah


 

spoiler has vote counts if its a jnv/cash/stick/tun team; i dont really see it it’s definitely a lot of red in one place d2. that being said i am partial to e!cash and i could reconsider my v!tun read but i’d sort of like to wait for that. put it in spoilers and no bold bc i think that messes up the voting algorithms? im not voting any of these people but jnv :P 

@Ashbringer does whoever got shalash’s honorblade get their knowledge of how many honorblades a person have that night or the day after? we could kinda clear whoever has the honorblade that way

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11 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

@Ashbringer does whoever got shalash’s honorblade get their knowledge of how many honorblades a person have that night or the day after? we could kinda clear whoever has the honorblade that way

... huh?

If you mean Transformation, it's a night action that gives you information on the night->day rollover. So whatever results it gives will match the Honorblade list for that next Day.

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