Long Game 83: The Survivor

[Archer]

2 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Interesting. It has come to my attention that I was targeted for some reason last night. I have no idea why you targeted me, but I'd be interested in knowing why you chose to do what you did. 

You can just say it was a roleblock and get this over with :P. 

@ people who grabbed things, why did you grab the item you did? That discussion should have been had last Night, but let's get to it now. 

JNV sussing TUA after they've died is more villagey than elimy, unless the elims absolutely didn't care about the vote. I agree with them on Thaid and Kas too. Anyone been robbed yet? 

I'm trying to make a Cowboy E!Bop joke about Biplet but I can't shoehorn it in anywhere. Pretend I did. 

I remain confident that the elims are more likely to have grabbed things than villagers, so Araris' shortlist works for me. Mat should be on it because they tried to vote, but I'm village reading them anyway. Thaid trying to hide their role after they accidentally revealed it makes me think they have elim teammates telling them to hide their secrets Steel

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

You can just say it was a roleblock and get this over with :P. 

@ people who grabbed things, why did you grab the item you did? That discussion should have been had last Night, but let's get to it now. 

JNV sussing TUA after they've died is more villagey than elimy, unless the elims absolutely didn't care about the vote. I agree with them on Thaid and Kas too. Anyone been robbed yet? 

I'm trying to make a Cowboy E!Bop joke about Biplet but I can't shoehorn it in anywhere. Pretend I did. 

I remain confident that the elims are more likely to have grabbed things than villagers, so Araris' shortlist works for me. Mat should be on it because they tried to vote, but I'm village reading them anyway. Thaid trying to hide their role after they accidentally revealed it makes me think they have elim teammates telling them to hide their secrets Steel

you can always blame that on me just being just plain bad at SE still. I am learning more and more with each mistake. then again it does look like I could be an elim, *sighs as tries to think of a way to not be voted to death* welp, whatever. I also think that Steel is an elim because of a few reasons.

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

Anyone been robbed yet?

You know who you are and I'm sorry :/ Wincon makes us do terrible, monstrous things to others :'(

..........I don't know how I'm going to cope when my V/Non-Evil streak breaks and I actually have to send in a kill :|

[Archer]

7 minutes ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

you can always blame that on me just being just plain bad at SE still. I am learning more and more with each mistake. then again it does look like I could be an elim, *sighs as tries to think of a way to not be voted to death* welp, whatever. I also think that Steel is an elim because of a few reasons.

That was a fast self-pres. Were you the one who was robbed? Did Kas break your heart and make you a killer ):

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

That was a fast self-pres. Were you the one who was robbed? Did Kas break your heart and make you a killer ):

YES, I was robbed, I completely forgot. My awesome shade gun was stolen 

[Stick.]

17 minutes ago, Archer said:

people who grabbed things, why did you grab the item you did?

I thought it'd be nice to have juicy intel on players xD

1 minute ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

YES, I was robbed, I completely forgot. My awesome shade gun was stolen 

oh  

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

I thought it'd be nice to have juicy intel on players xD

oh  

it was sadness. whoever stole my awesome gun needs to be killed! was that you Stick!!!

[Stick.]

13 minutes ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

it was sadness. whoever stole my awesome gun needs to be killed! was that you Stick!!!

me?? I would never don a domino mask

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

me?? I would never don a domino mask

Now really? then who do you think stole my precious shade gun?

[Stick.]

1 minute ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

Now really? then who do you think stole my precious shade gun?

I'm afraid I'm not allowed to answer ;eyes; 

I made the Thief a solemn promise 

[Araris Valerian]

I actually wrote some code to model the scenario I described earlier, and roughly 27.3% of the claimed items went to elims (assuming 6 elims) in 100000 trials. With 5 elims its 22.9%. So while this does indicate that elims are statistically more likely than villagers to get items, the actual difference is only around 1.2% compared to what we would expect (26.1% and 21.7% respectively). Which probably is entirely negated by all the simplifying assumptions that I made. So yeah, my POE is pretty much useless. Hold the phone while I try and get some reads.

Edit: Since I'm already doing statistics, the standard deviation on those percentages is 6.8% and 6.2% respectively, which again shows that they are kinda useless.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Is this what I have become? A meme vote? Voted on for no other reason than "haha funny elims hoard steel, Steel must have steel"

I was expecting some pressure on different people, but not I! Granted I haven't done much besides complain and RP, so I shouldn't complain too much. More. 

My vote didn't have anything to do with thinking you hoarded steel because Steel, fwiw. It was much more this second part, where you haven't done much more than complain and RP  

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

At one point Tani had two votes on her (Bort and TJ), but that exe dissolved quickly when the TUO train came up (TJ moved to TUO and Bort unvoted before the TUO train even came into existence). Bip only came with her Tani vote much later (it was 2/3 between Me/TUO) and the train didn't catch on. Therefore Bip is village. 

You/Fifth/Bip all defending each other in various subtle yet obvious ways is really tripping me out >>

43 minutes ago, Archer said:

@ people who grabbed things, why did you grab the item you did? That discussion should have been had last Night, but let's get to it now. 

I remain confident that the elims are more likely to have grabbed things than villagers, so Araris' shortlist works for me. Mat should be on it because they tried to vote, but I'm village reading them anyway. Thaid trying to hide their role after they accidentally revealed it makes me think they have elim teammates telling them to hide their secrets Steel

I grabbed Tin because it's a useful item to have :P. I haven't used it yet since I want a better chance of actually coming up with something useful.

I tried to make that argument but realized there's nothing saying that the elims all went for items and all failed because villagers went for the same items and got unlucky. I doubt that TJ forgot to put in an action, and we've had multiple people claim to have went for something/got it. I do agree that a lot of the elims probably went for items, but that doesn't mean a lot of them got items.

It doesn't mean they didn't either though.

Do you really think that an elim teammate told Thaid to edit out something out of their post? That's like one of the main rules to SE, no one would have told him to do that.

38 minutes ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

you can always blame that on me just being just plain bad at SE still. I am learning more and more with each mistake. then again it does look like I could be an elim, *sighs as tries to think of a way to not be voted to death* welp, whatever. I also think that Steel is an elim because of a few reasons.

This is quite a weird line, ngl :P.

What are those reasons? You seem to have a trend of hopping on whatever bandwagon is currently the largest, saying you have reasons, and not explaining them.

[|TJ|]

Quick points, because I'm travelling and might lose connection [will be busy tomorrow and might be free only after my game's rollover]

This is something I noticed and was waiting to see if someone else did  -

Quote

was rather cheeky which put me over the edge on voting you. 
and trust me I'd vote on anyone doing this, team mate or not. Unfortunately with only one vote I can only provide a small stab of discomfort to one person. 

Just.. don't use steel like a proper noun. Steel is me. steel is a metal. 
(i'm not actually annoyed, I actually find this rather amusing, but I will stick to my guns on enforcing this!)

Nitpicky, but I find this glaring, and think @Steeldancer has elim-slipped here. I found it very weird they used the term 'team-mate' instead of 'village' in the sentence. 

@Matrim's Dice was hypothesizing Stick/Fifth as e/e. I wondered about it myself,  but then you'd have to ask where are the other elims? Why did it come to the point of e!Fifth having to retract a poke vote on e!Stick to save her?If Case-A is Fifth/Stick e/e, then case-B in case case-A is wrong is general apathy from the elims when it came to D1 lynch. In this case, I'm looking at players who voted in side-trains AFTER the two main trains [TUA-Stick] developed - players being Steel [on Matrim], Biplet [on Tani] and Archer [on Biplet]. Less elim credence on Biplet because there was a post in which she asked people to join on her, which shows more involvement than the other two. Steeldancer has already accumulated a lot of votes but no one else seems to have caught the slip, so would appreciate opinions on that. Archer

Edit: Now that it's sent, the post may seem hasty as it was rushed to hit send before losing connection

Edited February 19, 2022 by |TJ|

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

55 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'm afraid I'm not allowed to answer ;eyes; 

I made the Thief a solemn promise 

HMMMMMMM you sus.

[Kasimir]

13 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Quick points, because I'm travelling and might lose connection [will be busy tomorrow and might be free only after my game's rollover]

This is something I noticed and was waiting to see if someone else did  -

Nitpicky, but I find this glaring, and think @Steeldancer has elim-slipped here. I found it very weird they used the term 'team-mate' instead of 'village' in the sentence. 

@Matrim's Dice was hypothesizing Stick/Fifth as e/e. I wondered about it myself,  but then you'd have to ask where are the other elims? Why did it come to the point of e!Fifth having to retract a poke vote on e!Stick to save her?If Case-A is Fifth/Stick e/e, then case-B in case case-A is wrong is general apathy from the elims when it came to D1 lynch. In this case, I'm looking at players who voted in side-trains AFTER the two main trains [TUA-Stick] developed - players being Steel [on Matrim], Biplet [on Tani] and Archer [on Biplet]. Less elim credence on Biplet because there was a post in which she asked people to join on her, which shows more involvement than the other two. Steeldancer has already accumulated a lot of votes but no one else seems to have caught the slip, so would appreciate opinions on that. Archer

Edit: Now that it's sent, the post may seem hasty as it was rushed to hit send before losing connection

1. It's one of several reasons I agree that pressure should be developed on Steel. There's other reasons, but where possible, I'd prefer the player who first brought it up to advance it as they deserve credit for their own observations.

2. I don't think 'teammate' is something that falls naturally out of a Village state of mind either, or at least, I'd want to know why Steel is thinking from an E!Steel perspective there because I don't see what could have prompted the adoption of that perspective.

3. I think the minimal commitment is to pressure, because look at the context of the exchange:

Steel is responding to Mat when he says that he'd vote on anyone doing the capitalisation deal, teammate or not. The other candidate at this point is TUA, who flipped Village. And that's just a very odd exchange if - as I do - you have any amount of V!Mat credence at this juncture.

[Mat]

30 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Quick points, because I'm travelling and might lose connection [will be busy tomorrow and might be free only after my game's rollover]

This is something I noticed and was waiting to see if someone else did  -

Nitpicky, but I find this glaring, and think @Steeldancer has elim-slipped here. I found it very weird they used the term 'team-mate' instead of 'village' in the sentence. 

@Matrim's Dice was hypothesizing Stick/Fifth as e/e. I wondered about it myself,  but then you'd have to ask where are the other elims? Why did it come to the point of e!Fifth having to retract a poke vote on e!Stick to save her?If Case-A is Fifth/Stick e/e, then case-B in case case-A is wrong is general apathy from the elims when it came to D1 lynch. In this case, I'm looking at players who voted in side-trains AFTER the two main trains [TUA-Stick] developed - players being Steel [on Matrim], Biplet [on Tani] and Archer [on Biplet]. Less elim credence on Biplet because there was a post in which she asked people to join on her, which shows more involvement than the other two. Steeldancer has already accumulated a lot of votes but no one else seems to have caught the slip, so would appreciate opinions on that. Archer

Huh, I hadn’t noticed that. Definitely don’t disagree there but I think calling out elim slips is tricky since weird wording can just be weird wording

The bolded is essentially what it came down to me, I think I mentioned that concern in PMs once :P. But yeah, it’s why I tagged Fifth instead of voting him or Stick.

I didn’t catch why you voted Archer but I understand the post was rushed. 

[Quivil]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

@ people who grabbed things, why did you grab the item you did? That discussion should have been had last Night, but let's get to it now. 

I wanted electrum because I thought maybe it wouldn't be snatched from my sad grabby fingers.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Tani.

Kas: 

Tani:  

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

You know who you are and I'm sorry :/ Wincon makes us do terrible, monstrous things to others :'(

..........I don't know how I'm going to cope when my V/Non-Evil streak breaks and I actually have to send in a kill :|

Stab someone back who stabbed you during your V/Non-Evil streak.

 

Something's weird here. I'm still silly, and we've had first death. Hmm.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I didn’t catch why you voted Archer but I understand the post was rushed. 

TJ's post:

1. Whether Stick/TUO V/E or Stick/TUO V/V, we should look at side-trains.

2. Three side-trains developed: pushed by Steel, Archer, Biplet.

3. Lower credence on E!Bip (presumably relative to the three candidates in his pool), and Steel already has plenty of votes on him, so developing pressure on Archer instead.

[Steeldancer]

48 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Nitpicky, but I find this glaring, and think @Steeldancer has elim-slipped here. I found it very weird they used the term 'team-mate' instead of 'village' in the sentence. 

I used the word team mate because Matrim was hypothesizing the idea of me and TUA being e/e. As a villager, I don't know who else is village, so I'm likely to vote on them regardless. Generally, you avoid voting on your team mates as an elim unless you have an actual reason to do so. I was just saying I would, as an elim, vote on my team mate for messing with the capitalization. 
And no, I'm neither claiming Gold, nor saying I was role-blocked. The situation is a bit more odd, but I think whoever targeted me would probably know. 
Actually, now that I think about it, it's also possible that I wasn't targeted at all. As I said, it's an odd situation. 
Also, one other thing in my defense. It's not much, but if I were an elim, I wouldn't be hoarding steel. I like people dying as an elim. In my opinion, it makes more sense to take out threats more consistently, rather than risk having your hoard of steel targeted by a thief, or getting nicrosiled, or something else. Instead, my actions have generally been defensive, because as aforementioned I'm more interested in living through this game. 

Edited February 19, 2022 by Steeldancer
a small defense.

[Archer]

1 minute ago, Steeldancer said:

Actually, now that I think about it, it's also possible that I wasn't targeted at all. As I said, it's an odd situation. 

Are you basing your guess on the action you submitted doing something differently than you expected? 

47 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Archer

That's a funny way of spelling Steeldancer :P. 

I'll throw this logic back at you. You were on the wagon that killed v!TUA, which could have been protecting any of the other candidates. 

[Steeldancer]

Just now, Archer said:

Are you basing your guess on the action you submitted doing something differently than you expected?

I'm not sure how specific I want to be. I don't mind sharing about it if it just affected me, but I prefer not to share information that might affect others without good reason. Suffice it to say it's not just me involved, and I'm just as confused about it as everyone else reading my posts. 
Also, why do you feel that I'm a worthy vote? All you did earlier was sheep on me, which, honestly, I found kind of suspicious. Even more so if you're actually advocating my vote now. 

[Archer]

15 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

I'm not sure how specific I want to be. I don't mind sharing about it if it just affected me, but I prefer not to share information that might affect others without good reason. Suffice it to say it's not just me involved, and I'm just as confused about it as everyone else reading my posts. 
Also, why do you feel that I'm a worthy vote? All you did earlier was sheep on me, which, honestly, I found kind of suspicious. Even more so if you're actually advocating my vote now. 

Mysterious! 

I'll be honest, I started today having no idea why people were voting you, but the slip thing seems valid. I haven't actually gotten around to reading C1 properly, I've been Sharding on my essay breaks. Anyway, TJ set up a situation that guessed you were evil and I was defending you, so it'd make more sense for him to vote you first to check his hypothesis. 

[Steeldancer]

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

Mysterious! 

I'll be honest, I started today having no idea why people were voting you, but the slip thing seems valid. I haven't actually gotten around to reading C1 properly, I've been Sharding on my essay breaks. Anyway, TJ set up a situation that guessed you were evil and I was defending you, so it'd make more sense for him to vote you first to check his hypothesis. 

I don't feel like defending what TJ is seeing as a slip any more than I already have, since I see why he says that, but at the end of the day I was very clearly talking about a hypothetical situation. Especially as TUA turned village, making the whole idea of me being e/e with them utterly impossible. I also have been known to word things weird many times in the past, and get exed for it. These things do make sense in my head, but are read differently when they actually land in thread. 
sigh, I ended up defending when I said I wouldn't defend it. 
At the moment, though, you did retract your vote on me. I still find the initial sheep suspicious, but I figure an elim would probably just continue to use that to get me exed, rather than switch votes. 

[Biplet]

The lack of anything this game is making it hard to vote. I stand by my Tani vote D1, because I still feel weird about her, but the last minute votes at EoD do give credence to the idea of elim!stick. I'm willing to vote on them or Steel, since pressure seems to be mounting on Steel now, and I don't think it's a good idea to throw out a side train when it looks like elims are building up for a mega-kill. I agree with kas: we need to pick our exe's carefully, because losing a ton of players at one to the NK would be very not good. Odd, however, that Kas said that immediately after giving a completely un-reasoned vote on Tani XD but hey I won't complain that someone else at least agrees with my suspicion. Thief vibes

Edit: sorry, security officer vibes

Edited February 19, 2022 by Biplet

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, Biplet said:

The lack of anything this game is making it hard to vote. I stand by my Tani vote D1, because I still feel weird about her, but the last minute votes at EoD do give credence to the idea of elim!stick. I'm willing to vote on them or Steel, since pressure seems to be mounting on Steel now, and I don't think it's a good idea to throw out a side train when it looks like elims are building up for a mega-kill. I agree with kas: we need to pick our exe's carefully, because losing a ton of players at one to the NK would be very not good. Odd, however, that Kas said that immediately after giving a completely un-reasoned vote on Tani XD but hey I won't complain that someone else at least agrees with my suspicion. Thief vibes

The problem with the current exe on me is there really isn't anything behind it. The only solid evidence against me is the aforementioned slip, which I feel like if you read in context makes internal sense without it needing to be a slip. Besides that, it's just participation in thread, which I'm now doing plenty of! That's what leads me to think at least some of the pressure on me is not village based.