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Posted
22 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

The Alvron Shaman kill.

He basically claimed at some point, but I don't remember where. The only PMs I know of were Kas and myself, Kas and JNV, and Kas and Alvron. That is probably it since Tani apparently hasn't made any.

24 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

@Araris Valerian did you play the last iteration of this game, and if so, do you remember what the distro was like in that game?

I did, but there were a bunch of Secrets, Nightblood was involved, and it was a lot more crazy than this game. I'm not sure that it will help us too much.

Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

He basically claimed at some point, but I don't remember where. The only PMs I know of were Kas and myself, Kas and JNV, and Kas and Alvron. That is probably it since Tani apparently hasn't made any.

I did, but there were a bunch of Secrets, Nightblood was involved, and it was a lot more crazy than this game. I'm not sure that it will help us too much.

Ah okay. No potential leads there, then.

Secrets and Nightblood sound fun tho :o 

15 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

V:     Araris      JNV      Archer
N+:  Elkanah                Turtle
N:    Tani         Silho     Infinite

Could everyone who sees this post make a tier list, in a similar format to the one quoted above? Preferably with no sheeping :P i.e. considering each slot from your perspective.

ED1T:

3 hours ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

C4 and 5 I haven't used it (yet.) Tonight I'll be protecting myself, since the elims now know my blade.

I now know that Stormlight refreshes on N3. Why didn't you use Progression on C4? Smaller pool of targets means it would have been more likely to work than a C1 self-protect, for example.

Edited by Ookla the Remembered
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

I now know that Stormlight refreshes on N3. Why didn't you use Progression on C4? Smaller pool of targets means it would have been more likely to work than a C1 self-protect, for example.

As Tani's legal counsel, I'm sorry to tell you that my client won't be answering that until tomorrow because they can't protect the same target twice in a row. 

I'm hesitant to post a reads list right now. It hasn't changed much though. 

56 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

You know, something that I don't know if it's been discussed but seems relevant. The Alvron Shaman kill. Was it a lucky guess or is it possible one of the people he claimed to in PMs is an elim?

It'd have to be JNV who tattled. But you also need to consider the death of Stick, who may have been dictating their kill strategy. You could guess Araris wasn't the Shaman though because they didn't claim it when under pressure early in the game. D2 maybe? And I was a suspect so I'm out. Alv isn't too off the beaten path now that I think about it. 

Edited by Ookla the Paragrapher
Posted
32 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Could everyone who sees this post make a tier list, in a similar format to the one quoted above? Preferably with no sheeping :P i.e. considering each slot from your perspective.

Sure thing!

V: Elkanah, Archer, Araris

N+: Amanuensis

N: JNV, Infinite Insanity, Tani

E: Turtle, Shining Silhouette

 

JNV has risen in my estimation for bussing Chantara. That would be a brutal move if they were elim together... and questionable strategy at that point in the game now that I think about it more. 

Turtle and Shining Silhouette were the other two who did not start with blades, so at least one of them is probably an eliminator. I think it's both.

Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

As Tani's legal counsel, I'm sorry to tell you that my client won't be answering that until tomorrow because they can't protect the same target twice in a row. 

Good shout. I hadn't considered the possibility of them lying to keep the elims from knowing. Jumped straight into attack mode xD

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'm hesitant to post a reads list right now. It hasn't changed much though. 

Hesitant why? I'm worried you'll die tonight. Or do you just mean to post it closer to rollover as to not influence the elims?

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

It'd have to be JNV who tattled. But you also need to consider the death of Stick, who may have been dictating their kill strategy. You could guess Araris wasn't the Shaman though because they didn't claim it when under pressure early in the game. D2 maybe? And I was a suspect so I'm out. Alv isn't too off the beaten path now that I think about it. 

@JNV Oi! You a tattler, m8?

/jnv

Yeah, that checks out. Whether I missed out on Alv outright claiming or there being enough context for the elims to work it out.

What're your thoughts on Silho, given he voted both Stick and Chana 2nd / before the Illumination reveal? I'm leaning V myself because it's kinda insane or extremely unlucky, if he only meant to distance and not get his teammates killed. Would take a ton of risk appetite and chutzpah imo.

Also do you think v!JNV = v!Turtle? Did you have any reason for suspecting Turtle other than defending JNV from an early exe?

Edited by Ookla the Remembered
Posted (edited)

V: Archer

N+: Turtle, JNV

N: Amanuensis, Tani

E: Infinite Insanity, Shining Silhouette, Elkanah

Edit: I'd say Turtle is the person I'd be most willing to lower, and Aman the one I'm most willing to raise.

Edited by Araris Valerian
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Now that is really not what I was hoping to hear...

Maybe flip a coin between protecting yourself and me? Paliah could do the same, and that leaves the elims doing a lot of guesswork. They can't really afford a 50% chance of failing the NK at this point.

This is a good idea, thank you. I'll adjust it for further cycles and use it forever. (In this game, at least.)

Quote

Edit: I'm curious, and this is maybe asking for a lot of speculation, but given that we have confirmed the village started with Chana (well, this is pretty sure at least), Paliah, and Battar, which blades do y'all think Ash would have given to the elims? Or do folks think this is a fruitless line of thought and Ash is an unrepentant troll? I was sort of thinking they'd get Vedel to counter Chana, but Aman has v!Tani credences.

Honestly I would bet that it's a mix of those - there are some blades Ash purposefully decided to absolutely not give to the Elim team (like Chana) so they wouldn't be overpowered, but the rest of it is mostly or entirely random.

Then you get the best of both worlds - balance AND trolling! :D

Edit: I was going to wait for someone else to post, but I've decided that it's too late in the day for me to wait much longer, so I should probably just do this now. I noticed that people were posting updated reads lists. Here's mine:

  • V: JNV, Archer
  • N+: Araris, Aman
  • N: Inity, Turtle
  • N-: Silho, Elk

I don't have any solid elim reads ATM

Edited by Ookla the Implosion
Posted

Well I know at least Silh is probably asleep by now, so I'll do a mini update. As a general rule, I'm not a fan of info sharing at Night, but Aman has me worried I might die and be in a weak position to say I told you so from the dead doc. :P. 

I'm worried that Ash split the protection blades to avoid the problem of them protecting each other indefinitely. But the storm light mechanic gives me pause. 

My Xino read has changed because I feel Aman would bus in the situation he was put in, so I'm still just working with Stick voting Xino looks good for them. Same read with Elk, but moreso. 

Araris and JNV are lock village. 

Insanity is a question mark by necessity because if I don't keep sus them I'm committed to e!Tani. 

Turtle should die for being bladeless. Silh should die for well they can't all be inactive D3. 

Posted

Alright, here's the lists:

1. Original set of Blade holders:

<Illwei, Xino, JNV, Araris, Stick, Cash, Tani, Insanity>

2. N4 set of Blade holders:

<Chantara, JNV, Araris, Turtle, Cash, Tani, Insanity>

Turtle picked up Stick's Blade, and Chantara picked up Illwei's. Kalak was with Xino/Aman, then with Alv, and now with the elims (or a random person if Chantara killed Alv). So currently:

Turtle has Shalash, JNV has Jez, I have Chana, Tani has claimed Vedel, and that leaves Insanity with Ishar.

I grabbed Battar from Cash's death, and decided to RB Shining instead of sending in a kill, since the elims likely have Kalak and are probably going to RB me anyways.

Posted

LG91 Day 6: Equal, Not Escaping

It was a cold night. The Storm was coming again, and the streets of Earthen Truth were noticeably empty even in the evening. Such bloodshed for two handfuls of relics. Soon there might be more relics than people.

Jen-child-Verin was one such person, keeping their eyes on the wood and dirt and blood that made the walls and buildings around. They thought they'd seen something earlier. Might as well look again. Jezrien's Honorblade could let them know if anyone was coming.

Unfortunately for Jen, someone was. And the attacker didn't let them get away.

 

JNV was killed! They were a member of the Shin High Council and the Bearer of Jezrien's Honorblade!

Jezrien's Honorblade is available to be claimed by JNV's killer! If it remains unclaimed, it will be redistributed at the end of the Day Turn.

 

@ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle has been warned for inactivity! Please post this cycle or you will be replaced by a pinch hitter.

 

The turn will end on Wednesday, December 7th at 11:00 PM PST.

 

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle- Evelt-son-Urtal
  2. @Araris Valerian - Hadrian-son-Penrod
  3. Ookla the Unknown / The Unknown Novel - Dali-son-Nar Shin High Council
  4. The Wandering Wizard - Tweedle-son-son-Dumb - Shin High Council
  5. Ookla the Tall / Matrim's Dice - Dazi-son-ron - Shin High Council
  6. JNV - Jen-child-VerinShin High Council, Bearer of Jezrien's Honorblade
  7. Ookla the Perpetual / The Bookwyrm Rizam-son-Azram Shin High Council
  8. @Ookla the Debonair / Shining Silhouette - Cheshire-son-Cat
  9. @Ookla the Remembered / Amanuensis - Ookla the Forgotten / xinoehp512 - Jet-son-Blanc
  10. Kasimir - Kvaseth-son-Wysan - Shin High Council
  11. @InfiniteInsanity
  12. Chantara - Tukari Invader, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade
  13. _Stick_ - Tukari Invader, Bearer of Shalash's Honorblade
  14. Cash67 - Egg-son-Chicken Shin High Council, Bearer of Battar's Honorblade
  15. Illwei Shin High Council, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade
  16. @Ookla the Paragrapher / Archer - Tweedle-son-Dee
  17. Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi Stone Shaman, Bearer of Kalak's Honorblade
  18. @Ookla the Implosion / Tani - Daalna
  19. @Elkanah - Sun-son-son-Tsu
  20. Ookla the Omnicient / Szeth_Pancakes - Shin High Council

 

Posted (edited)

Aman. Wanna explain why it was so important to tell the elims exactly who was popularly cleared outside of the obvious two? Couldn't we have done that during the Day? 

Araris, can you clear Silh of having submitted the NK? Also, you should probably kill next Night, depending how the exe goes. 

Now that everyone's blade is public knowledge, please action claim. 

The fact that bladeless Turtle picked up Stick's item means nothing because it was off the exe. But I do like using a shortlist of people who started without a blade since the elims have a good route to acquiring them.

I stayed up because I can't handle suspense. Elk lurked for the Araris info dump too, FYI. My behavior is totally normal while theirs is clearly evil :P. 

8 players remain, making it 5:3 or 2:6. Pessimistically it goes 5:3, mix to 4:3, NK to 3:3. 

Or, factoring in Araris, two villagers and an elim dying makes it 3:2. But we think they can roleblock him? 

Turtle

Edit: I guess Tani gets some credit for not leaving Araris out to dry. If the elims have all the protection, they could have made a play for Chan

Edited by Ookla the Paragrapher
Posted (edited)

Just woke up. Need coffee. Bear with me.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Aman. Wanna explain why it was so important to tell the elims exactly who was popularly cleared outside of the obvious two? Couldn't we have done that during the Day? 

I hadn't initially thought it could be an issue until you were cagey, hence my asking if you worried it could influence elim actions, and dropped it from there. Personally, I generally think night discussions are a boon, not a curse, for the village (having played many games where there's no posting allowed on MU, which is pain), and usually make it my mission to get people talking always. That and I was more focused on trying to solve the game myself, as something as simple as seeing who answered and who didn't, not to mention what people I have no/low reads on answered, could help me feel others out. I'd also hoped that by using the night to solve myself + encourage discussion would potentially draw the elim kill to myself.

TBH tho, JNV was probably a foregone conclusion, given how things shaped up with Chantara. Whether or not they were "popularly cleared" I think the chance of voting them out had already sailed and considering I worked out they had Jezrien's blade yesterday, I'm certain the elims knew for a while and wanted the target Seeker gone either way. I don't think me asking for tiers had an impact on that at all, especially since most people had JNV in the neutral range :P (ED1T: or I guess technically half, which is only a quarter of players, since only Elk, Araris, and Tani responded :P)

4 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Now that everyone's blade is public knowledge, please action claim. 

The only thing Xino did was roleblock Elkanah N1.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Turtle

Given Turtle's currently inactive, is this really the vote you want to start with? At the very least we know they didn't submit JNV's kill order.

ED2T:

More thoughts pending when I'm properly caffeinated.

Edited by Ookla the Remembered
Posted
37 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, we know that neither Shining nor Turtle sent in the kill. My roleblock was successful.

If they didn't RB you, then I wonder if Turtle ended up with Kalak's blade too or if maybe Tani was RB'd. @Ookla the Implosion did your action last night return as successful?

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Now that everyone's blade is public knowledge, please action claim. 

Do you want those with protection blades to claim their past actions, or leave the Elims with the 50%-chance-of-failure umbrella covering about 3-4 people? I and the other protection blade holder could flip a coin every night and say who we're flipping between.

Also, in this case it matters less what we do and more what the elims think we'll do, so we could RNG if we need to for which of the three cycles we skip if we need to skip for Stormlight reasons.

Oh yeah, the question from last night. Just a minit, I'll hunt it up--

15 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

I now know that Stormlight refreshes on N3. Why didn't you use Progression on C4? Smaller pool of targets means it would have been more likely to work than a C1 self-protect, for example.

I didn't use Progression C4 because of what happened to Kas C3 - I wanted to have stormlight left over on C6, so the elims wouldn't get another free/blockless kill.

The C1 self-protect was because I had been entirely inactive for much of that cycle, and get the feeling that when I'm inactive C1 I'm NK'd then more often. I wanted to live longer than that.

Edit:

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

If they didn't RB you, then I wonder if Turtle ended up with Kalak's blade too or if maybe Tani was RB'd. @Ookla the Implosion did your action last night return as successful?

Yep.

Edited by Ookla the Implosion
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

I didn't use Progression C4 because of what happened to Kas C3 - I wanted to have stormlight left over on C6, so the elims wouldn't get another free/blockless kill.

The C1 self-protect was because I had been entirely inactive for much of that cycle, and get the feeling that when I'm inactive C1 I'm NK'd then more often. I wanted to live longer than that.

Edit:

Yep.

Ah, that makes a lot of sense :o I hadn't thought about elims waiting until people were out of stormlight before going after high-value targets. Also fair enough on the C1 protect, I'm not up to date on current NK meta.

Hm. Seems possible if they do have Kalak, they didn't RB to have a charge for a vote manip today + to waste village stormlight.

Edited by Ookla the Remembered
Posted
7 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Now that everyone's blade is public knowledge, please action claim. 

 

3 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

The only thing Xino did was roleblock Elkanah N1.

Day one: I dishonored my cow by looking at thread PMs. I sent my action to slaughter my dishonored cow.

Night One: I offered dishonored cow burgers to anyone who targeted me. I'm not sure if Xino received one or just slapped one out of my hand with a blade. I was not informed that my action failed, so I'm hoping he was able to enjoy it and we parted peacefully.

I haven't had the time or creativity since for more actions like this, but now I wish I had. Maybe I'll come up with something today like 'give a stern scolding to anyone who changes other people's votes' or 'leave cookies and a note for the Tulare asking them to just keep the blades they have and go home peacefully.'

Posted
1 hour ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

Do you want those with protection blades to claim their past actions, or leave the Elims with the 50%-chance-of-failure umbrella covering about 3-4 people? I and the other protection blade holder could flip a coin every night and say who we're flipping between.

Yeah this is more about just gathering any information people are sitting on (or claims that contradict other claims because they're lies). Keep your operational security. Paliah has only been in new hands for one round, so they should as well. 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, we know that neither Shining nor Turtle sent in the kill. My roleblock was successful.

Hows a roleblocker blocking a roleblocker get announced? Failure, probably. 

This is fine. Now I only have four suspects! Xino, Elk, Tani, and Insanity. 

3 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

I hadn't initially thought it could be an issue until you were cagey, hence my asking if you worried it could influence elim actions, and dropped it from there. 

JNV was hard cleared, and had a decent blade, but if it hadn't been discussed, our low activity elim team might have made a more predictable kill if they weren't doing heavy analysis themselves. Unfortunately, I think e!Silh could have figured it out, so I can't clear Insanity for the choice. @InfiniteInsanity how did you win a spoon?

2 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Day one: I dishonored my cow by looking at thread PMs.

Turtle Elk :P. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Turtle Elk :P. 

I deserve this :P

I did get forgiven by Kas, but I have seen more quokkas in that week than I had in my entire life previously.i should be admonished.

...I just realized! If we slaughter me, we can have Elk Burgers!!!

Elk Burgers

Posted

Here's the cherrypicked, unsympathetic Elk case:

-D1 Elk voted Wiz for the tie but then framed it as not trusting Wiz in another post. At EoD they said they don't trust Wiz and they don't trust Bookwyrm and used that to justify some vote dancing around. I think Thrill seeking Tie Guys usually just want the tie. How often is it that your two suspects actually are both in contention? My theory would be they're just saying they suspect them as an excuse. 

-Page 4 of D2, the votes are v1:v2:v2:v2:Elk2. Mat and I switch to Stick, and, potentially making it v1:v2:v2:e2:e2 and immediately Turtle breaks the tie. Possibly because the odds of an elim dying doubled. 

-Their D3 vote comes after Chan bussed. It was a vanity vote on Xino but they took the time to say they suspected Stick a bit. Does a Tie Guy looking at a 3:4 EoD VC decide the best thing to do is make it 3:4:1? No. 

-They've gone vote on main wagon, no vote, main wagon, no vote, main wagon

 

Chan and Insanity voted together on Mat D1, which I find unlikely to be e-e. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

JNV was hard cleared, and had a decent blade, but if it hadn't been discussed, our low activity elim team might have made a more predictable kill if they weren't doing heavy analysis themselves. Unfortunately, I think e!Silh could have figured it out, so I can't clear Insanity for the choice. @InfiniteInsanity how did you win a spoon?

Yeah, fair. My bad if that had an impact.

I've lost my attempts to write this post twice, but lemme try again.

IMO Turtle is off the table for me. I really liked their D4 interactions with Tani (questioning her village read of him). Felt like it came from a villager mindset. Granted, this was right after Stick died and maybe he felt a need to go into thread control mode without her, but another point in their favor is the inactivity thing. Considering he started roleless and received Stick's blade, I'd expect Turtle to become more active, not less.

Even Tani's newer posts read very pure to me, but with Araris being Chana and there only being a ~0.01% of him being a mad busser this game, I could see the distro argument for the elims starting with Vedel's blade. I hate voting people only because of their roles tho (my first ever Shard game Lifeless Commander here, still never forgave Wilson for that :P) so I'm going to ISO them at some point today to see if anything rings my alarm bells.

The only thing I know about @InfiniteInsanity is that they're a low-active poster and they started with Ishar's blade, according to Araris. I do think Ishar's blade makes sense with elims, but again, role-voting is gross. They fit neatly in the Chana bus window being the 5th or 6th vote, though. Infinite? Insanity? Idk what to call you. What actions have you used so far in this game?

Silho was blocked and thus wasn't JNV's killer. Jury's still out if they're a 4th/5th elim, but I'm not super interested in going that route atm.

I need to think about Elk. I can't exactly remember why I felt good about them entering the game (might've been the Stick interactions?). Current posts do feel similarly pure to Tani tho. At this point, I might have to read the whole game again. 

All in all, my PoE today is something like <Tani, Infinite, Elk>. I feel confident saying there are 2 elims among them + Silho. I suppose I could be wrong about Turtle, or more wrong about Archer/Araris, but I'm not interested in going after an inactive or getting distracted by paranoia. If there's a 3rd left, we'll probably need to deal with a deep wolf later.

Edited by Ookla the Remembered
Posted
1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

@InfiniteInsanity how did you win a spoon?

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

I got third place at a soup themed speech competition. Instead of medals and trophies they gave us spoons and bowls. It was absolutely awesome. 

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

The only thing I know about @InfiniteInsanity is that they're a low-active poster and they started with Ishar's blade, according to Araris. I do think Ishar's blade makes sense with elims, but again, role-voting is gross. They fit neatly in the Chana bus window being the 5th or 6th vote, though. Infinite? Insanity? Idk what to call you. What actions have you used so far in this game?

Insanity, Insa or Inity works well for me. I haven't used any actions. I've never seen anything that I want to do with it. I've had several if, then times but I've never seen anything that I want to do with it.

Posted
27 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Here's the cherrypicked, unsympathetic Elk case:

-D1 Elk voted Wiz for the tie but then framed it as not trusting Wiz in another post. At EoD they said they don't trust Wiz and they don't trust Bookwyrm and used that to justify some vote dancing around. I think Thrill seeking Tie Guys usually just want the tie. How often is it that your two suspects actually are both in contention? My theory would be they're just saying they suspect them as an excuse. 

-Page 4 of D2, the votes are v1:v2:v2:v2:Elk2. Mat and I switch to Stick, and, potentially making it v1:v2:v2:e2:e2 and immediately Turtle breaks the tie. Possibly because the odds of an elim dying doubled. 

-Their D3 vote comes after Chan bussed. It was a vanity vote on Xino but they took the time to say they suspected Stick a bit. Does a Tie Guy looking at a 3:4 EoD VC decide the best thing to do is make it 3:4:1? No. 

-They've gone vote on main wagon, no vote, main wagon, no vote, main wagon

 

Chan and Insanity voted together on Mat D1, which I find unlikely to be e-e. 

Sure fair enough, but why didn't I tie Stick with you? I could easily have hidden behind the fact that I like ties. Especially given Chantara was available for a last second save? 

I give you I wasn't any more suspicious of Wizard than anyone else. I knew Alvron was going to make it a tie no matter what so I decided at end of day to make it easier and let him know I would stay where I was right then so he could get the tie. I was definitely more suspicious of Bookwyrm, but it didn't matter where I landed because Alvron was going to tie it anyway. 

Stick breaking the tie worked to our advantage as it put her in the spotlight. An eliminator having to make a move is exactly what I wanted and what we got. I know people say ties don't help the village, but I contend it has in the past and it did here. You have your ways and I have fun ways :P

Wow, apparently I had thoughts. Thank you for letting me air those. ^_^

As for my other votes, I would have joined the main wagon every day probably. I apologize for sheeping. I didn't really want to be on every wagon. I said I didn't want to join a Bookwyrm wagon, but did. I wanted to stay aloof from the Stick wagon, but needed to prevent the tie because I did suspect her. I would have been on the Cash train because WOW those posts were suspicious. I was on the Chantara train and basically everyone was. My gut has not been super useful this game and I have no mechanical advantages like messaging, blades or a doc to even that playing field. Really I'm still very surprised to be alive given I'm a great mislynch target. 

Unsympathetic may be the operative term there as two of my three votes were on eliminators, but I know that could be written off as team too little too late. Except I don't think I would have been on Stick.  To paraphrase ShiningSilhouette, E! Elkanah was not a good teammate. 

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