Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, InfiniteInsanity said:

Insanity, Insa or Inity works well for me. I haven't used any actions. I've never seen anything that I want to do with it. I've had several if, then times but I've never seen anything that I want to do with it.

NGL, I kinda wish I knew you had Ishar's blade last night so I could have asked you to use Tension on Araris to prove you weren't putting in the kill order

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I’m living in a world where either Aman or Elk sent in the NK. e!Insanity would have used Ishar’s blade. One of the things with Aman is that Xino never said anything about Alvron stealing his blade. I feel like a villager would be more likely to ask why the heck they got stolen from. Aman is active and followed me onto Chantara initially without reasoning, but I don’t really see e!Aman playing that differently. His only other option really would have been to push for a Turtle exe.

Now, of course Stick went in on Xino early D3, but I’m not sure how much that’s worth.

I guess I’d rather vote Elk. But I honestly have no idea because our D1 was such a disaster and apparently the elims didn’t care about us killing Stick D3.

[Amanuensis he/him]

16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m living in a world where either Aman or Elk sent in the NK. e!Insanity would have used Ishar’s blade. One of the things with Aman is that Xino never said anything about Alvron stealing his blade. I feel like a villager would be more likely to ask why the heck they got stolen from. Aman is active and followed me onto Chantara initially without reasoning, but I don’t really see e!Aman playing that differently. His only other option really would have been to push for a Turtle exe.

Now, of course Stick went in on Xino early D3, but I’m not sure how much that’s worth.

I guess I’d rather vote Elk. But I honestly have no idea because our D1 was such a disaster and apparently the elims didn’t care about us killing Stick D3.

Emphasis mine.

I've been wondering about that myself. The theory I had was losing the blade played a part in him going inactive, or maybe that he figured the blade was better in the confirmed village Shaman's hands given his level of activity. Can't say for certain, as the only thing Ash could tell me was his N1 action. I've also wondered why he chose to RB Elkanah, of which I have no clue.

ED1T:

@Araris Valerian Re: "e!Insanity would have used Ishar’s blade." I can see that, but Stormlight charges cap at 2, right? If so, it's possible their teammates didn't run out yet so they put in the kill to maximize the Tension benefits + have an extra charge in case they needed to Soothe a vote today.

Otherwise yeah. JNV's murderer would need to be me, Elkanah, e!Tani, or e!Archer.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Araris Valerian he/him]

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Re: "e!Insanity would have used Ishar’s blade." I can see that, but Stormlight charges cap at 2, right? If so, it's possible their teammates didn't run out yet so they put in the kill to maximize the Tension benefits + have an extra charge in case they needed to Soothe a vote today.

Nope, unused charges carry over and there is nothing in the rules about a cap of 2.

Also I’m pretty sure e!Tani would have used Progression since I could have been using Chana to kill someone, and Paliah could have used Illumination on me to stop a roleblock from working. Of course in an e!Paliah world that doesn’t work.

[Amanuensis he/him]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Nope, unused charges carry over and there is nothing in the rules about a cap of 2.

Whaaat. Okay yeah that's pretty crazy then. I figured it'd work more like in canon where spheres leak over time and can only hold so much.

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also I’m pretty sure e!Tani would have used Progression since I could have been using Chana to kill someone, and Paliah could have used Illumination on me to stop a roleblock from working. Of course in an e!Paliah world that doesn’t work.

Ooo true, which potentially means Tani wouldn't have killed JNV unless they're the only active elim (Tani/Turtle?). We can probably assume whoever got Paliah used Progression too.

ED1T:

1. Turtle (Inactive)
2. Araris (RB'd Silho)
3. Silho (RB'd by Araris)
4. Aman (Bladeless)
5. Infinite (Ishar but claims no action; if evil, would have used Tension)
6. Archer (No known blade / claimed action)
7. Tani (Vedel claiming Protection)
8. Elkanah (No known blade / claimed action)

Ruling myself out, I'm still at the same PoE of <Tani, Elkanah, Infinite> which kinda doesn't help me. @Elkanah instead of voting yourself, who do you think JNV's killer is?

Edited December 6, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Araris Valerian he/him]

27 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Ruling myself out, I'm still at the same PoE of <Tani, Elkanah, Infinite> which kinda doesn't help me. @Elkanah instead of voting yourself, who do you think JNV's killer is?

Well, you can maybe remove Insanity and Tani. We honestly don’t have a lot to go on here so I’m not sure that’s unreasonable.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, you can maybe remove Insanity and Tani. We honestly don’t have a lot to go on here so I’m not sure that’s unreasonable.

True. I just don't want to stagnate discussion by dogpiling Elkanah

[Quivil]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

True. I just don't want to stagnate discussion by dogpiling Elkanah

K, so at this point we're pretty sure it's Elk, right?

Should we maybe talk about who the other elims might be? Those who didn't submit the kill? And connections with Elk?

[Elkanah he/him]

39 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Nope, unused charges carry over and there is nothing in the rules about a cap of 2.

Also I’m pretty sure e!Tani would have used Progression since I could have been using Chana to kill someone, and Paliah could have used Illumination on me to stop a roleblock from working. Of course in an e!Paliah world that doesn’t work.

Quote

Honorblade Bearers carry one of the eight Shin Honorblades, whether rightfully or stolen, which each give them access to two Surges as actions. They also gain 2 Stormlight charges every Highstorm (the end of every Third Night turn - N3, N6), which does carry over if left unused before the next Highstorm.

It's interesting to me that only honorblade bearers gain stormlight. Was there anyone who has a blade, but was not refreshed with stormlight?

I will go back to review what's been revealed and try to piece together who has how many charges in a minute.

30 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Ruling myself out, I'm still at the same PoE of <Tani, Elkanah, Infinite> which kinda doesn't help me. @Elkanah instead of voting yourself, who do you think JNV's killer is?

Of the four of us, I still most suspect Infinite Insanity. Elkanah. I don't really have any good reasons, though. Tani sounds village to me. Amanuensis is trying to solve the game and Stick went after Xino early on. That could be an attempted bus for an inactive eliminator, though. Stick has been known to do that. And I'm getting little flashbacks to MR12, but that was a loooong time ago.

Infinite Insanity is kind of a blank spot in my memory. Definitely worth an ISO. She claims not to have used any actions which means she is either lying or has been available to submit the kill. Neither seems great. You also suggested that Tension makes the most sense for an eliminator blade, and I agree.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I do feel like a v!Insanity that is interested in winning would have used Tension on myself, Tani, or JNV. The claim of having done nothing rings similar to what Chantara was claiming.

[Elkanah he/him]

Araris posted so I can put this here

EDIT (not anymore)

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, you can maybe remove Insanity and Tani. We honestly don’t have a lot to go on here so I’m not sure that’s unreasonable.

Why would he want to? This creates a false binary where either he admits he submitted the kill or else he has to vote for the person you want. I don't think this is nefarious, just incorrect.

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

K, so at this point we're pretty sure it's Elk, right?

Should we maybe talk about who the other elims might be? Those who didn't submit the kill? And connections with Elk?

But are we?? because if we are, we are very incorrect. I would love to try and figure out who is actually on the elim team. For example, at this point is there any team Turtle doesn't fit on? It doesn't especially matter because they didn't submit the kill. Tani has the bodyguard blade and didn't kill Araris, so it probably isn't you.

[Amanuensis he/him]

55 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

It's interesting to me that only honorblade bearers gain stormlight. Was there anyone who has a blade, but was not refreshed with stormlight?

On that note, I did ask in my GM PM if I've been gaining Stormlight since losing the Blade. Apparently, I still have 1 (leftover from Xino starting with Kalak and using it N1). I don't get how it works lore-wise, but I suppose it's just a game mechanic thing. Does anyone who started with no blade but received one know if you get 2 charges with it, regardless of the night?

55 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Infinite Insanity is kind of a blank spot in my memory. Definitely worth an ISO. She claims not to have used any actions which means she is either lying or has been available to submit the kill. Neither seems great. You also suggested that Tension makes the most sense for an eliminator blade, and I agree.

49 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I do feel like a v!Insanity that is interested in winning would have used Tension on myself, Tani, or JNV. The claim of having done nothing rings similar to what Chantara was claiming.

I'm kinda at the point where I think e!Insanity is as good as confirmed for these reasons. I just wish I had more than low-active + optimal bus votes + Ishar's blade to go off of. The question is basically do we risk voting wrong today and maybe Araris shooting Insanity tonight? If either Tani is elim or another elim got Paliah's blade, that could mean us losing, yeah?

Edited December 6, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Archer he/him]

35 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

K, so at this point we're pretty sure it's Elk, right?

Should we maybe talk about who the other elims might be? Those who didn't submit the kill? And connections with Elk?

I'm not that confident yet, but I'll say e!Turtle still works. 

32 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Of the four of us

Before we lock in on 15:5 starting distro, I'm gonna run the 16:4 distro simulation. Mix, NK, Coinshot missing drops us from 6:2 to 3:2. Ok yeah we're fine. Carry on assuming three elims are left because we can afford to. 

Also, you only voted off elims who were dead men walking. 

26 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I do feel like a v!Insanity that is interested in winning would have used Tension on myself, Tani, or JNV. The claim of having done nothing rings similar to what Chantara was claiming.

Well if you'd wanted that, you should have asked for it!

Kidding. Kind of. 

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

 Does anyone who started with no blade but received one know if you get 2 charges with it, regardless of the night?

I'm kinda at the point where I think e!Insanity is as good as confirmed for these reasons. 

As the parasocial relationship I've had with the GM this game can attest to, you don't get any Stormlight on multiple of 3 Nights if you're baldeless. :(. I can't say for sure how it works if you acquire one, but my memory of the rules was that you don't and have to use your starting stockpile. 

I think that's a logical conclusion. But you have to consider the player profile. I can see v!Insanity not prioritizing farming Stormlight for other people because they want to keep the manip option open or they haven't thought it through that much. I'd be really careful about condemning players for sub optimal play. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Moving this edit to a new post since Archer essentially ninja'd it.

@Araris Valerian what do you think about the possibility of a Shallash!Stick, Ishar!Insanity, Bladeless!Chantara, and Bladeless!Silho team and/or Bladeless!Turtle team? Given those circumstances, I could see Insanity needing to put in the kill order because @Ookla the Debonair and/or @ookla the POKE VOTE weren't around to put the kill in. Silho was on ~49 minutes ago and due to his timezone, might've decided not to put the kill in too early in the Night or decided to use another action from a claimed blade. Silho has been utterly quiet the last 25 hours and they might've been discouraged after losing Chantara too.

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I think that's a logical conclusion. But you have to consider the player profile. I can see v!Insanity not prioritizing farming Stormlight for other people because they want to keep the manip option open or they haven't thought it through that much. I'd be really careful about condemning players for sub optimal play. 

I am, yeah. It's a part of why I'm not voting for them already. That said, what do you think about the proposed team above?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

 

Moving this edit to a new post since Archer essentially ninja'd it.

@Araris Valerian what do you think about the possibility of a Shallash!Stick, Ishar!Insanity, Bladeless!Chantara, and Bladeless!Silho team and/or Bladeless!Turtle team?

 

Yeah, this works and makes lots of sense. Though I don’t think there’s anything super great to distinguish between Silho and Elk. They probably aren’t teamed, but either could be elim.

At this point a second bladed elim is most likely you or Insanity.

I also feel like teams where Silho is elim should be lower credence just because we know he didn’t NK.

Also, so that nobody is planning around it (and since anyone paying attention already knows), I don’t have stormlight. I’ve got 4 actions logged (PMs with Kas, killing TUN, killing Szeth, and RBing Silho).

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

17 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Silho was on ~49 minutes ago and due to his timezone, might've decided not to put the kill in too early in the Night or decided to use another action from a claimed blade. Silho has been utterly quiet the last 25 hours and they might've been discouraged after losing Chantara too.

Nah, actually I really never understood the blade mechanic since I've never had one so I didn't have anything helpful to contribute

Also is there anything useful I can do with my two stormlight?

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

 

I also feel like teams where Silho is elim should be lower credence just because we know he didn’t NK.

^^ :P.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, this works and makes lots of sense. Though I don’t think there’s anything super great to distinguish between Silho and Elk. They probably aren’t teamed, but either could be elim.

At this point a second bladed elim is most likely you or Insanity.

I also feel like teams where Silho is elim should be lower credence just because we know he didn’t NK.

Also, so that nobody is planning around it (and since anyone paying attention already knows), I don’t have stormlight. I’ve got 4 actions logged (PMs with Kas, killing TUN, killing Szeth, and RBing Silho).

That's fair. I generally have better gut vibes from Elk than Shining, but I wouldn't bet any money on either's alignment.

Feel that. For me it's Insanity or Tani, and I have better vibes about Tani.

True. I was more thinking about it as a v!Elkanah scenario for why e!Insanity would put in the kill instead of using Tension. We've got a lot of time left in this turn and don't want us locked into Elk too early for nothing, just in case.

Ugh. That kinda just makes me want to leave Insanity alive to see if they'll charge you up tonight. Tension comes after Division in the OOA too, so we can't even game the system to our advantage  

23 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

Also is there anything useful I can do with my two stormlight?

Wait. So everyone has 2 base stormlight regardless of if they started with a Blade, but only players with Blades get more on N3x's?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

14 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Wait. So everyone has 2 base stormlight regardless of if they started with a Blade, but only players with Blades get more on N3x's?

I think that's right

[Amanuensis he/him]

(2) Elkanah: Archer, Araris, 
(1) Insanity: Elkanah, 

19 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

I think that's right

So what do you think about everything, Silho?

Edited December 6, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Remembered said:

So what do you think about everything, Silho?

I'm feeling pretty good about the game as of now.

Definitely trust Araris--i've had a great feeling about Archer since my reads list, but we knew this already.

Insanity hasn't been as active as I would have thought, might vote there, might follow Araris/Archer. Will have to do reading on Elk

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

 

Ugh. That kinda just makes me want to leave Insanity alive to see if they'll charge you up tonight. Tension comes after Division in the OOA too, so we can't even game the system to our advantage  

I started trying to work out the roleblocking and unroleblocking that would have to go into making that work before I realized e!Turtle would just submit the kill. Insanity should do it anyway though.

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, so that nobody is planning around it (and since anyone paying attention already knows), I don’t have stormlight. I’ve got 4 actions logged (PMs with Kas, killing TUN, killing Szeth, and RBing Silho).

Oh bother

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

I'm feeling pretty good about the game as of now.

This is honestly really concerning to me, since I've been staring at these lists for too long and have no idea what is going on right now.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

26 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This is honestly really concerning to me, since I've been staring at these lists for too long and have no idea what is going on right now.

It's down to just Elk/Insanity or maybe Tani/Turtle, right? I feel like we can decide this one without too much difficulty.

Am I oversimplifying?

16 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

8 players remain, making it 5:3 or 2:6. Pessimistically it goes 5:3, mix to 4:3, NK to 3:3. 

Okay yes I just saw this I'm over simplifying

Well I'll read through each person's post and vote tomorrow.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Oh bother

Hey, that's Araris' line!

But agreed =\

13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This is honestly really concerning to me, since I've been staring at these lists for too long and have no idea what is going on right now.

I can kinda get a villager seeing the 2nd elim flip and feeling a lil more comfortable — it did buy us some time — but I'm similarly concerned because if there's 3 elims left, we either need to get today's vote right or block tonight's elim kill to avoid parity. Right now I'm thinking: does an elim say "I feel good about this game" after losing a teammate while the rest of us are low-key floundering? It almost feels like asking for suspicion.

If anything, I'm just more confused about Silho's slot.

Regarding Insanity, Araris. What do you think about having them use Tension on you tonight? You're very likely to have protection, unless Paliah protected you yesterday and Tani gets RB'd by an elim with the Kalak blade, but it's a way to keep Insanity accountable going into D7.

Alternatively, do you think it's better we remove the Ishar blade from the elim's hands before they can use it again?

Given no one has claimed the Kalak blade, I'm kinda assuming it's with Alvron's killer at this point. Is there a way we could maybe determine who the most likely player from N4 to kill him was, among those who are here now? It clearly wasn't Chantara.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Given no one has claimed the Kalak blade, I'm kinda assuming it's with Alvron's killer at this point. Is there a way we could maybe determine who the most likely player from N4 to kill him was, among those who are here now? It clearly wasn't Chantara.

Yeah not me :P.

1 minute ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

I can kinda get a villager seeing the 2nd elim flip and feeling a lil more comfortable — it did buy us some time — but I'm similarly concerned because if there's 3 elims left

We think there's three elims left? :00

1 minute ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

It almost feels like asking for suspicion.

If anything, I'm just more confused about Silho's slot.

Lowkey this is my SE Motto. One of these days I need to find all the times people have said this and make a list. I feel like it would be considerable

But really, if there are three left, then don't we just target one of <Insanity, Turtle, Tani, Elk> and we have a solid chance of being right?