Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[Quivil]

17 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Regarding Insanity, Araris. What do you think about having them use Tension on you tonight? You're very likely to have protection, unless Paliah protected you yesterday and Tani gets RB'd by an elim with the Kalak blade, but it's a way to keep Insanity accountable going into D7.

Protection doesn't stop Tension, it only stops kills. At least, as far as I know.

---

Silho's statements recently are making me nervous. They feel... off somehow, in several posts. It feels to me kind of like they're meant to push V!Silho overly strongly, and it worries me, especially since I already read Silho null-negative.

Someone please help me stop being concerned over this it's probably nothing or possibly another instance of Cash but it still worries me and has for a while

[Amanuensis he/him]

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

But really, if there are three left, then don't we just target one of <Insanity, Turtle, Tani, Elk> and we have a solid chance of being right?

That's essentially the plan, but we have ~30 hours left and most of us would rather consider every option / not bank the game on a coin flip  Especially because the elims among us will be trying to direct us to a villager to ensure their victory, and you're also discounting the possibility of there being a deep wolf among Archer, me, or Almighty-forbid, Araris.

Part of the problem is, there's most definitely 1 elim between <Insanity, Tani, and me> unless the elims only started with Shallash's blade, which imo would be absurd. From my PoV, it's like an 80% chance of Insanity and 20% of Tani, but even then, the risk is too big to just decide on a whim. Ideally, we want to go for the vote with the most evidence / suspicion.

Alternatively, there's the subset of Bladeless <You, Elkanah, Turtle, Archer> whose actions can't be accounted for at all, and even if there's 2 elims among that group, that's still a big gamble. If there are just 2 elims left (and thus just 1 in each subset), then it's not as big of a deal if we get today wrong, but then picking from this group also means we're more likely to vote wrong and potentially get outplayed by any Blades the remaining elims have.

There's a chance Araris and I are overthinking things and the team is the obvious choices, but personally, I'd always rather overthink than underthink (if that makes any sense).

ED1T:

Just now, Ookla the Implosion said:

Protection doesn't stop Tension, it only stops kills. At least, as far as I know.

Oh, that's not what I meant. I meant that Araris would live from the protection and therefore be able to confirm D7 that Insanity gave him 2 more charges of stormlight instead of submitting the N6 kill.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Implosion said:

---

Silho's statements recently are making me nervous. They feel... off somehow, in several posts. It feels to me kind of like they're meant to push V!Silho overly strongly, and it worries me, especially since I already read Silho null-negative.

Valid.

but i am village

Okay time to take some advice from last game when the same thing happened. Analysis helps and my comments are not good for anyone except my own amusement. 

But the thing here is the thing I want to do is the obvious thing which is to find the sus things about the other suspects. But that's what E!Me would do. WAIT that's also what V!Me will do.

Spoiler

NO MORE OVERTHINKING V AND E SILHO

Is there anyone here who has played with Tani before? @Ookla the Implosion, are you really a chaos demon?

I'd probably go after Elk/Turtle first tbh

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Part of the problem is, there's most definitely 1 elim between <Insanity, Tani, and me>

Are you an elim :3

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

There's a chance Araris and I are overthinking things and the team is the obvious choices, but personally, I'd always rather overthink than underthink (if that makes any sense). 

That makes perfect sense

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

Is there anyone here who has played with Tani before? @Ookla the Implosion, are you really a chaos demon?

I have, yeah, but it's been a long time + I can't remember any games where she was an elim. I don't think I've ever been certain about her alignment and I tend to lean Village. Right now that's my assessment but it's not strong enough to 100% guarantee e!Insanity.

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

Are you an elim :3

No, hence me saying 80% Insanity 20% Tani from my PoV  but if I was an elim I'd say no anyway, so don't take my word for it

And tbh I suspected Xino before I subbed in because of Kas' D3 graphs + I haven't done anything to guarantee I'm village + I can't be mechanically cleared due to bladelessness. Me pushing Chantara yesterday, as Araris has pointed out, is within my elim range

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

No, hence me saying 80% Insanity 20% Tani from my PoV  but if I was an elim I'd say no anyway, so don't take my word for it

^^ This post feels V

The phrasing is *chefs kiss* 

*cuts and pastes into notes doc*

just kidding I don't have a notes doc

maybe I should make one

Anyway whenever I say things like that people sus me.

[Amanuensis he/him]

(2) Elkanah: Archer, Araris, 
(1) Insanity: Elkanah, 
(1) Silhouette: Tani,

@Ashbringer In the event that Turtle doesn't come back / you can't find another pinch hitter, what happens? Does he get filter killed?

[Quivil]

14 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

Is there anyone here who has played with Tani before? @Ookla the Implosion, are you really a chaos demon?

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

I have, yeah, but it's been a long time

I haven't played in a while. Here's a list from the living: Araris, JNV, Aman, Archer, and myself.

As to your second question, all I know about it is that I've been called one. I thought it was a fun label and kept it. Sorta like gremlin.

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

^^ This post feels V

The phrasing is *chefs kiss* 

*cuts and pastes into notes doc*

just kidding I don't have a notes doc

maybe I should make one

Anyway whenever I say things like that people sus me.

When you say things like that, are you being asked if you're elim?

Whenever anyone in this game asks anyone else if they're elim, the answer they expect is "no" because who would say yes? This is why almost nobody asks anyone else "are you elim" in these games. There's not even body language to go off of, so asking someone if they're elim is pretty much an entirely useless question. Why would any elim want to out themself? If you were elim, and someone asked you if you were elim, would you answer truthfully or lie in self preservation?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Implosion said:

As to your second question, all I know about it is that I've been called one. I thought it was a fun label and kept it. Sorta like gremlin.

I wanna be a chaos demon someday.

Just now, Ookla the Implosion said:

when you say things like that, are you being asked if you're elim?

Whenever anyone in this game asks anyone else if they're elim, the answer they expect is "no" because who would say yes? This is why almost nobody asks anyone else "are you elim" in these games. There's not even body language to go off of, so asking someone if they're elim is pretty much an entirely useless question. Why would any elim want to out themself? If you were elim, and someone asked you if you were elim, would you answer truthfully or lie in self preservation?

you know that's a fair point.

but it's not the actual words themselves it's the phrasing

I'd probably be honest. Actually the last five~six games I've been completely honest whenever someone asks me that. No one ever believes me though

TUN did that in LG90 and totally faked me out

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

@Ashbringer In the event that Turtle doesn't come back / you can't find another pinch hitter, what happens? Does he get filter killed?

At the moment I believe I have a pinch hitter, but if Turtle doesn't come back by D7 and my pinch hitter isn't available then they would get filter killed.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

At the moment I believe I have a pinch hitter, but if Turtle doesn't come back by D7 and my pinch hitter isn't available then they would get filter killed.

In v!Turtle world, that's a relief. Otherwise, 

[Quivil]

Daalna had heard of this kind of thing happening in other towns, but had never seen it herself. She had never experienced the bone-chilling fear of wondering if you would be next, the helplessness of seeing nothing and knowing less. It was... interesting. She had been looking for one of these situations - for scholarly purposes, of course.

Now she just hoped she survived.

---

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

In v!Turtle world, that's a relief. Otherwise, 

Um???

Edit: Oh, you mean the part about Ash having a pinch-hitter, not the part about Turtle being filter-killed.

Sorry, I misread that.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Implosion

[Archer he/him]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

I haven't played in a while. Here's a list from the living: Araris, JNV, Aman, Archer, and myself.

How do you feel about some people having JNV in the null range? Personally I've been hard clearing them and I guess you are too. Would you agree that having them in the null midrange is weird. *eyes Aman*

This question is just for @Ookla the Implosion because they're the only active one I don't have a full reads list from yet.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

How do you feel about some people having JNV in the null range? Personally I've been hard clearing them and I guess you are too. Would you agree that having them in the null midrange is weird. *eyes Aman*

This question is just for @Ookla the Implosion because they're the only active one I don't have a full reads list from yet.

I'm a bit confused. You're clearing Elkanah and Araris for having JNV in the null range last night? Also why are you eyeing me haha

Tani posted a reads list last night

[Quivil]

9 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

How do you feel about some people having JNV in the null range? Personally I've been hard clearing them and I guess you are too. Would you agree that having them in the null midrange is weird.

I don't know. I feel like in general it could go either way - it could be weird or it could be tunneling. In Aman's current case, since I haven't seen any evidence of tunneling, it does feel weird, but a niggling sort of "Hmmm, suspicious. I'm going to watch you closer" weird, not a gutwrenching kind of weird.

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

I don't know. I feel like in general it could go either way - it could be weird or it could be tunneling. In Aman's current case, since I haven't seen any evidence of tunneling, it does feel weird, but a niggling sort of "Hmmm, suspicious. I'm going to watch you closer" weird, not a gutwrenching kind of weird.

Are you willing to vote JNV today if I switch to them too? I'm exploring options here

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Paragrapher

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Uh, JNV is slightly dead right now. Just saying.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Uh, JNV is slightly dead right now. Just saying.

lol

24 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Are you willing to vote JNV today if I switch to them too? I'm exploring options here

No I'm with you

JNV

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Uh, JNV is slightly dead right now. Just saying.

I know that. And you know that. And the elims who agonized over the kill decision know that. I was trying to see how far Tani would go before acknowledging it, to follow up on them calling JNV a living player yesterday:

Quote

I haven't played in a while. Here's a list from the living: Araris, JNV, Aman, Archer, and myself. (link) 

 

 

[Quivil]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Are you willing to vote JNV today if I switch to them too? I'm exploring options here

*checks OP* Wait. JNV's dead.

30 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I know that. And you know that. And the elims who agonized over the kill decision know that. I was trying to see how far Tani would go before acknowledging it, to follow up on them calling JNV a living player yesterday:

*facepalm* I was probably looking at the wrong list of players when I made the list of living players I'd played with. Sorry.

And then I actually forgot once we started talking about peoples' reads of JNV.

I think my brain is slightly broken.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Sorry y'all, had a busy day today but should be around for the rest of the turn.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I know that. And you know that. And the elims who agonized over the kill decision know that. I was trying to see how far Tani would go before acknowledging it, to follow up on them calling JNV a living player yesterday:

I was very confused by your initial post last night, but this makes sense. I thought you were voting for Elkanah and also clearing him for putting JNV in their null tier right before they were NK'd.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

*checks OP* Wait. JNV's dead.

*facepalm* I was probably looking at the wrong list of players when I made the list of living players I'd played with. Sorry.

And then I actually forgot once we started talking about peoples' reads of JNV.

I think my brain is slightly broken.

Lmao. It's okay. This increases me v!credences of you, barring the scenario where yourself and Archer are on a team and planned this interaction explicitly to derp clear you

In that case, Insanity. I hate that this is basically a mechanical confirmation, but I really don't want to vote out a villager today in case we live in a 5 elim world. The fact that no one has pushed back on Elkanah is concerning, as well as the fact that @Elkanah hasn't really attempted to defend themselves? I feel like an elim here would want to fight tooth and nail unless they've basically given up.

((ED1T: Scratch that, I missed this post by Elkanah))

---

(2) Elkanah: Archer, Araris, 
(2) Insanity: Elkanah, Aman, 
(1) Silhouette: Tani,
(1) JNV: Silhouette, 

---

@Ookla the Implosion unless Araris is an elim, we know for sure that Silhouette did not kill JNV last night, and thus it's better for us to vote out one of the people who could've done the deed. Was there a particular reason why you had Elkanah in your bottom-most tier in your reads list? I've yet to see any compelling arguments against him other than either not voting or following major trains, and my personal vibedar hasn't really raised my hackles with him like it did for Chantara. @Ookla the Debonair could you also vote for a living candidate? I appreciate a good joke as much as the next guy, but considering this is a potential exlo situation and we've only got ~11? hours left, it's time for us to buckle up and kill some bad guys

Personally, my theory is a team of Shallash!Stick, Bladeless!Chantara, Ishar!Insanity, and Bladeless!Silho with a potential 5th player tacked on between Elkanah and Turtle. This theory banks on Insanity putting in the kill because Silho+Turtle weren't available to, or Elkanah put in the kill with Insanity being a teammate Ishar loading him up with stormlight for the blades he's been collecting. Nothing else makes sense to me from my current PoV.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Archer he/him]

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Elkanah, Aman

Spoiler

Sorry for the confusion. In questioning whether it's exculpatory, I realized Tani doesn't Shard at all on Sundays anyway, so it's highly unlikely they submitted the kill. So our list of untrusted people who could have killed is down to Insanity, Elk, and Xino/Aman. I don't really have a good reason to vote Aman, so I'm down to weighing v!Elk because Stick pushed them as a suspect against e!Elk because at EoD D3 they did a vanity vote. 

Quote

I feel like an elim here would want to fight tooth and nail unless they've basically given up.

Due to the weirdness of this game, I don't agree with this read, but I think I'll be joining you on Insanity Elk

[Amanuensis he/him]

(3) Insanity: Elkanah, Aman, Archer,
(1) Elkanah: Araris, 
(1) Silhouette: Tani,
(1) JNV: Silhouette, 

Something something this wagon formation always catches wolves something something

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

46 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Nothing else makes sense to me from my current PoV.

Let's reconcile V!Silho with that

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Something something this wagon formation always catches wolves something something

Something something mumbled agreement

Insanity

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

Let's reconcile V!Silho with that

Something something mumbled agreement

Insanity

Welcome, Class, to How to Make Aman Second Guess Himself 101

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Remembered said:

Welcome, Class, to How to Make Aman Second Guess Himself 101

Ooh I got a degree in this course

 

@InfiniteInsanity look we got him right where we want him.

Okay so I'll bus you this cycle than if they exe me next then we still got @Araris Valerian

Araris keep being non suspicious. Everyone v reads you

Archer stay to the shadows and we should win