Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[Amanuensis he/him]

Edit got ninja'd so reposting it

ED1T:

Okay. In a v!Silho world, then it'd have to be 4 elims with the 4th either being Elkanah or Turtle, no? In which case, why does Elkanah vote Insanity first today? More busing / distancing? Same question applies to e!Silho voting e!Insanity now. Is it just Insanity/Turtle???

Just now, Ookla the Debonair said:

Ooh I got a degree in this course

 

@InfiniteInsanity look we got him right where we want him.

Okay so I'll bus you this cycle than if they exe me next then we still got @Araris Valerian

Araris keep being non suspicious. Everyone v reads you

Archer stay to the shadows and we should win

You really want that chaos demon title, huh

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Remembered said:

You really want that chaos demon title, huh

...Yeah

Some might argue I already have it after my last couple of games

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Araris Valerian halp

ED1T:

@InfiniteInsanity What do you make out of this? Or are you just an elim cutting out noise before you die  

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

@Araris Valerian halp

Did you know the plural of the combination word made from "halp" and halp backwards is

halp + plah + s = help please

[Amanuensis he/him]

Bonus crackpot theory:

e!Shallash!Stick, e!Bladeless!Chantara, e!Bladeless!Turtle, e!Vedel!Tani

In this case, Turtle noticed on D4, after Stick died and his team needed to start acting, that Tani was "v-reading" him with little explanation, and so directly confronted her to disarm any future suspicions of them being connected. In this world, Elkanah, Silho, and Insanity are all Villagers, Turtle went MIA for unhelpable IRL reasons, and Tani has been left hung to dry, simply relying on the villagers to tear each other apart until the game is won.

ED1T: This would require her putting in the JNV kill order and still forgetting he died (or faking it). That or a teammate like Elkanah to put the kill order in? She did put Elkanah in the bottom of her list but I don't think she's ever voted him.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Bonus crackpot theory:

e!Shallash!Stick, e!Bladeless!Chantara, e!Bladeless!Turtle, e!Vedel!Tani

I like this actually. Also looking at trading Tani for Insanity/Elk 

edit:

Insanity

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Debonair

[Amanuensis he/him]

Quoting my edit now so Silho will see it >>

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

ED1T: This would require her putting in the JNV kill order and still forgetting he died (or faking it). That or a teammate like Elkanah to put the kill order in? She did put Elkanah in the bottom of her list but I don't think she's ever voted him.

 

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

I like this actually. Also looking at trading Tani for Insanity/Elk 

edit:

Insanity

I said crackpot theory  I really don't suspect Tani for anything she's said or done. It's just the fact that only Insanity, Tani, and I started with blades that have not had alignments confirmed yet, either from death or being Chanarach!Araris. e!Insanity still makes the most sense, but I'm struggling to figure out their partners rn (mostly because of your shenanigans )

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Quoting my edit now so Silho will see it >>

Why thank you I didn't see that

Quote

I said crackpot theory  I really don't suspect Tani for anything she's said or done. It's just the fact that only Insanity, Tani, and I started with blades that have not had our alignments confirmed yet, either from death or just being Chanarach!Araris. e!Insanity still makes the most sense, but I'm struggling to figure out their partners rn

I have a light to moderate vil read of Tani atm.

I do agree fairly strongly with E!Insanity

Next in my poe is Turtle

Edit: Playing a jazz concert tonight will be back in a few hours

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Debonair

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

Edit: Playing a jazz concert tonight will be back in a few hours

Have fun!

 

 

 

At last... peace!

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[InfiniteInsanity she/her]

53 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

@InfiniteInsanity What do you make out of this? Or are you just an elim cutting out noise before you die  

I think that no matter what I said people who want me dead can twist my words and actions to make me seem suspicious. I'm not an elim but if people think that I'm not sure how to dissuade you. And I only have short snippets of time where I can be on the Shard for the rest of the night (dress rehearsals and pictures. yay.) If y'all don't kill me I'll use Tension on Arais at night. If y'all kill me,

להתראות ובהצלחה לגלות מי באמת רוצה להרוג אותך!

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 minutes ago, InfiniteInsanity said:

I think that no matter what I said people who want me dead can twist my words and actions to make me seem suspicious. I'm not an elim but if people think that I'm not sure how to dissuade you. And I only have short snippets of time where I can be on the Shard for the rest of the night (dress rehearsals and pictures. yay.) If y'all don't kill me I'll use Tension on Arais at night. If y'all kill me,

להתראות ובהצלחה לגלות מי באמת רוצה להרוג אותך!

I'm honestly not sure how you could dissuade me either, tbh, as the alternative means Tani is an elim for having Vedel's blade. If you are in fact a villager, you should vote someone you suspect is an elim as letting yourself die could mean us losing the game.

[InfiniteInsanity she/her]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

I'm honestly not sure how you could dissuade me either, tbh, as the alternative means Tani is an elim for having Vedel's blade. If you are in fact a villager, you should vote someone you suspect is an elim as letting yourself die could mean us losing the game.

Aman. I'm going more off of when Xino was playing because I have even less of an idea of how you play then how the rest of these people play.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, InfiniteInsanity said:

Aman. I'm going more off of when Xino was playing because I have even less of an idea of how you play then how the rest of these people play.

 

ED1T:

(3) Insanity: Elkanah, Aman, Archer,
(1) Elkanah: Araris, 
(1) Silhouette: Tani,
(1) Aman: Insanity,

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I’ll vote Insanity if it gets to that, but I’d much rather exe Elkanah. Elk and Shining were at each other a lot before the Chantara exe, so I feel pretty strongly that one is elim. Since my e!Shining credence is down, it really makes the most sense from my perspective to vote there. It also means I don’t have to commit one way or another about Aman’s alignment, which I am still pretty iffy about.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Amanuensis he/him]

12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’ll vote Insanity if it gets to that, but I’d much rather exe Elkanah. Elk and Shining were at each other a lot before the Chantara exe, so I feel pretty strongly that one is elim. Since my e!Shining credence is down, it really makes the most sense from my perspective to vote there. It also means I don’t have to commit one way or another about Aman’s alignment, which I am still pretty iffy about.

Emphasis mine.

Can you tell me whereabouts I should look for that?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Emphasis mine.

Can you tell me whereabouts I should look for that?

Yeah, just read the first 2-3 pages of D5.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, just read the first 2-3 pages of D5.

Okay so I read up to me coming in again, and a few things stood out to me.

First Archer's big opening post:

Quote

Day 1

• The Wandering Wizard (5): xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten, _Stick_, Elkanah, Tani, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient
• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (4): The Wandering Wizard, JNV, Araris Valerian, Alvron
• Szeth Pancakes /Ookla the Omniscient (3): The Unknown Novel, Archer, Matrim's Dice
• Matrim’s Dice (2): InfiniteInsanity, Chantara
• Alvron (2): Illwei, Cash67
• Kasimir (1): Kasimir

Quote

Day 2

• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (5): Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE, Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, JNV, Cash67
• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
• Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten
• xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (2): Kasimir, InfiniteInsanity
• Araris Valerian (1): Archer

Quote

Day 3

• _Stick_ (7): Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Kasimir, Chantara, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Alvron, Elkanah
• Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher (2): The Unknown Novel / Ookla the Unknown, JNV
• Chantara (1): _Stick_
• Elkanah (1): Cash67

Quote

Day 4

• Cash67 (6): Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE, Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, InfiniteInsanity, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Tani / Ookla the Implosion
• xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (1): Cash67

I'm slightly becoming paranoid of e!Archer. For example, there's him starting D5 gunning for JNV and implicating Turtle alongside JNV. Also the fact that both v!TUN and v!JNV had voted Archer D3 as an alternative to e!Stick, which didn't seem to pick up steam, and Stick distancing herself from Chantara by voting her. Also, this part:

Quote

Either way, I'm hard clearing e!Elk. They were Stick's preferred exe. Xino was the subject of Stick's bad vote, so I'm also village reading them. 

Combined with the fact that Archer's first two votes today were:

On 12/6/2022 at 2:44 AM, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Aman. Wanna explain why it was so important to tell the elims exactly who was popularly cleared outside of the obvious two? Couldn't we have done that during the Day? 

Araris, can you clear Silh of having submitted the NK? Also, you should probably kill next Night, depending how the exe goes. 

Now that everyone's blade is public knowledge, please action claim. 

The fact that bladeless Turtle picked up Stick's item means nothing because it was off the exe. But I do like using a shortlist of people who started without a blade since the elims have a good route to acquiring them.

I stayed up because I can't handle suspense. Elk lurked for the Araris info dump too, FYI. My behavior is totally normal while theirs is clearly evil :P. 

8 players remain, making it 5:3 or 2:6. Pessimistically it goes 5:3, mix to 4:3, NK to 3:3. 

Or, factoring in Araris, two villagers and an elim dying makes it 3:2. But we think they can roleblock him? 

Turtle

Edit: I guess Tani gets some credit for not leaving Araris out to dry. If the elims have all the protection, they could have made a play for Chan

An inactive that his main argument for being evil was Illwei dying N1 + starting the train that saved v!JNV + apparently getting Stick's blade and going inactive despite the fact Stick died to the yeet and thus the blade was purely RNG'd?

and:

On 12/6/2022 at 10:11 AM, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Yeah this is more about just gathering any information people are sitting on (or claims that contradict other claims because they're lies). Keep your operational security. Paliah has only been in new hands for one round, so they should as well. 

Hows a roleblocker blocking a roleblocker get announced? Failure, probably. 

This is fine. Now I only have four suspects! Xino, Elk, Tani, and Insanity. 

JNV was hard cleared, and had a decent blade, but if it hadn't been discussed, our low activity elim team might have made a more predictable kill if they weren't doing heavy analysis themselves. Unfortunately, I think e!Silh could have figured it out, so I can't clear Insanity for the choice. @InfiniteInsanity how did you win a spoon?

Turtle Elk :P. 

On 12/6/2022 at 11:06 AM, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Here's the cherrypicked, unsympathetic Elk case:

-D1 Elk voted Wiz for the tie but then framed it as not trusting Wiz in another post. At EoD they said they don't trust Wiz and they don't trust Bookwyrm and used that to justify some vote dancing around. I think Thrill seeking Tie Guys usually just want the tie. How often is it that your two suspects actually are both in contention? My theory would be they're just saying they suspect them as an excuse. 

-Page 4 of D2, the votes are v1:v2:v2:v2:Elk2. Mat and I switch to Stick, and, potentially making it v1:v2:v2:e2:e2 and immediately Turtle breaks the tie. Possibly because the odds of an elim dying doubled. 

-Their D3 vote comes after Chan bussed. It was a vanity vote on Xino but they took the time to say they suspected Stick a bit. Does a Tie Guy looking at a 3:4 EoD VC decide the best thing to do is make it 3:4:1? No. 

-They've gone vote on main wagon, no vote, main wagon, no vote, main wagon

 

Chan and Insanity voted together on Mat D1, which I find unlikely to be e-e. 

Who just last turn he said "I'm hard clearing e!Elk"

+

His very first line today was shading me for trying to get some Night discussion going

Overall, my point in pointing these out is that while I did come into the game reading Archer as village for some mind melds we had (I.E. calling Stick out for seeming to have a hidden agenda) I'm wondering now if that was because he already knew Stick was an elim and it was a distancing thing. Not to mention the fact that him coming back to inactive Turtle again and again, even post v!JNV reveal, feels kind of hidden agenda-y.

Another bonus from this post:

Quote

I have a mental block when it comes to voting Turtle because I don't want to not hit the final CW from D3 after 2/3 already died. But knowing that the elims have to have bussed D3 makes me okay with exploring Silh (potential busser) and Turtle (non voter). I'm genuinely torn between the three. 

Mental block with voting Turtle --> Immediately votes inactive Turtle D6 over other suspects?

Getting away from Archer a moment, I saw this post by Elkanah that's suddenly made me very concerned:

Quote

It's weird that my two other biggest suspects are helping me lynch Turtle. Maybe that's their plan. I'm expecting an end of day hammer. I will make sure I am on to try and counter, but we should do what we can to sure up a lynch on a good target before then. 

For now, Turtle Shining Silhouette

About this:

2 hours ago, InfiniteInsanity said:

Aman. I'm going more off of when Xino was playing because I have even less of an idea of how you play then how the rest of these people play.

In an e!Ishar!Insanity world + them having Kalak from killing Alvron, that means the elims have two different vote manips for today. Is this Insanity setting me up for an Adhesion / Cohesion hammer?

ED1T:

@Araris Valerian I didn't really see much against Elkanah or Shining from D5. Did you maybe mean D4?

Also from the end of N4 are two posts of yours:

Quote

I… don’t trust Turtle. In fact I put Turtle slightly above Archer in terms of suspicion.

However, the inactive elim team thing is still relevant, and should be taken into consideration primarily with the timing of D3 votes, since that’s when elims who didn’t vote probably wanted to.

Quote

Okay, here’s the thing with Archer being elim. Stick just doesn’t die in this world. There’s no reason for that exe to happen. There’s plenty of lingering suspicion on people who were involved in the D1 tie, and I doubt all of them are elim. Even if a few of them are, bussing a low active teammate, or even two of them, is a way better play than losing Stick.

Once Kas goes down, Archer can run thread control, and only needs one more difficult misexe to win regardless, since with 5 elims and the missed vig kill, a misexe on C3 would leave things at 5:8 going into D4, and D5 can be hammered.

I was not super threatening D3 and might have gone after Archer on a theoretical non-Stick misexe D3 but I doubt I was threatening enough for the elims to bus one of their most active players.

So basically, if Archer is elim then I’m sorry, but you could have already won this so I’m just going to ignore that possibility henceforth.

You were suspicious of Archer, then figured Archer would have tried to save Stick instead of bussing her, yeah, making him village? TBH I agreed with that assessment originally and thus wrote Archer off when combined with the early game mind melds, but now I'm worried because today Archer has gone from voting Turtle, to Elkanah, to Insanity, while also leading Tani along to a derp clear. In a v!Insanity world, could the team be E!Archer and E!Tani?

ED2T:

Also a possibility of e!Archer / e!Insanity team + 1, given the Cohesion/Adhesion combo + a literal last minute hammer could suddenly save Insanity and kill me instead, ending the game in a 5th elim world.

ED3T:

Another bonus!

From that D5 opening post Archer said:

Quote

Araris gets a pass for killing Stick. So should I.

Sounds kinda like riding on your coattails

Then later on, after I came into the game and Chantara had accumulated three votes, putting her in the lead:

Quote

At this point any competent elim team has caught on that you're the Coinshot/PMer guy and I'd really like confirmation of that so I can vote Turtle without thinking it's e!Araris e!Shining and v!JNV, v!Chantara. If you tell us and we get this flip right, you have a good shot with the Coinshot to bring it down to one elim who can only either NK or Coinshot anyway if they steal your blade. Also, vanilla!Araris was probably going to be the kill target anyway

If Araris dispels my paranoia I can chalk the rest of the Turtle votes up to bussing and vote there. If someone villagey says they blocked JNV, I can vote there. I don't think I can be happy with myself if I end up on Shining while holding JNV suspicions. I refuse to look at Chantara for what looks like PoE reasons. 

JNV probably

"any competent elim team" --> goes on to tell everyone you're the coinshot

@Araris Valerian so that you don't miss the edits

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Have fun!

Thanks! It was a good time

2 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

At last... peace!

*Ninja emoji* *Ninja emoji* (Cause you can't whitetext them :P.)

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’ll vote Insanity if it gets to that, but I’d much rather exe Elkanah. Elk and Shining were at each other a lot before the Chantara exe, so I feel pretty strongly that one is elim. Since my e!Shining credence is down, it really makes the most sense from my perspective to vote there. It also means I don’t have to commit one way or another about Aman’s alignment, which I am still pretty iffy about.

Elk

[Amanuensis he/him]

(3) Insanity: Elkanah, Aman, Archer,
(2) Elkanah: Araris, Silhouette,
(1) Silhouette: Tani,
(1) Aman: Insanity,

[Quivil]

5 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

 

@Ookla the Implosion unless Araris is an elim, we know for sure that Silhouette did not kill JNV last night, and thus it's better for us to vote out one of the people who could've done the deed.

Alright, this makes sense. Silho Elk

Yes, this will cause a tie. At this hour I'm mostly okay with that. If we need to and if I'm mentally able to do SE I can consolidate later.

5 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

Was there a particular reason why you had Elkanah in your bottom-most tier in your reads list?

Well, IIRC Kas was suspicious of them and then he died. I may be remembering incorrectly, if so please correct me.

Also, I thought it was rather interesting that Elk had been quite inactive and I noticed them becoming a little more active about an IRL day or so after we started hypothesizing an inactive elim team, around the time we started trying to pick out who among the more inactive folk was elim. Again, I may be remembering incorrectly.

My memory has never been very good, and right now my emotions are a bit of a wreck, so I trust my memory less than normal.

[Amanuensis he/him]

(3) Insanity: Elkanah, Aman, Archer,
(3) Elkanah: Araris, Silhouette, Tani,
(1) Aman: Insanity,

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

Alright, this makes sense. Silho Elk

Yes, this will cause a tie. At this hour I'm mostly okay with that. If we need to and if I'm mentally able to do SE I can consolidate later.

Well, IIRC Kas was suspicious of them and then he died. I may be remembering incorrectly, if so please correct me.

Also, I thought it was rather interesting that Elk had been quite inactive and I noticed them becoming a little more active about an IRL day or so after we started hypothesizing an inactive elim team, around the time we started trying to pick out who among the more inactive folk was elim. Again, I may be remembering incorrectly.

My memory has never been very good, and right now my emotions are a bit of a wreck, so I trust my memory less than normal.

I'll have to go see what Kas' thoughts on Elk were before he died then, since I've yet to see a particularly compelling argument for me to condemn him myself. (That and I feel like Insanity voting me was essentially an admission of guilt + Cohesion / Adhesion set up)

Also, very sorry to hear that you're going through it right now  I sincerely hope whatever's wrong resolves itself soon

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

(3) Insanity: Elkanah, Aman, Archer,
(3) Elkanah: Araris, Silhouette, Tani,
(1) Aman: Insanity,

I feel like this VC fits with e!Elk better than with e!Insanity.

3 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said:

In a v!Insanity world, could the team be E!Archer and E!Tani?

In the v!Insanity world, you are elim way more often than Archer or Tani. And your reluctance to vote Elk makes me think that is the case more and more. The v!Insanity world is you+Elk+Turtle or just you+Elk. And that's the thing; Elk fits as elim with basically anyone that isn't Shining. Maybe even with Shining, since you don't seem to agree with me on their antagonism.

I'm pretty sure in an e!Archer world I die D3 instead of Stick, Kas gets Nked, and Archer just runs thread control and wins from there. Bussing is a strictly suboptimal scenario given that neither Kas nor I was making anything like a solid argument against Stick, and Archer's reasoning was basically "Her votes look like where elims would vote". That's not the kind of suspicion you bus with, IMO, or at least not how you open the bus, given literally nobody else has mentioned suspicion up to this point. I feel my take here is fairly qualified in this regard.

Edit: I'm also not sure that after we exed Chantara for having no good excuse for not having protected anyone that e!Insanity would... do the same thing? Once the honorblade list went out it would be easy to fabricate some actions that make sense and look more villagery than doing absolutely nothing.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 hours until rollover!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@InfiniteInsanity could you please switch your vote onto Elkanah? Nobody is going to exe Aman this turn (at least I don't think they will).

[InfiniteInsanity she/her]

Since you asked nicely and seem hesitant to kill me, Aman Elk.

Edited December 8, 2022 by InfiniteInsanity
Scudding autocorrect