Elenion

I'm logging off for the night (it's after midnight), so my vote is locked in on Bort.

I just know that with your sense of humor, I wouldn't put joking about that kind of thing past you. I know it was unreasonable: I was only half-wondering. Your theory has interesting implications. If true, that means that scans targeted at players who started with Seons would be more likely to be true than scans targeted at random, because the target would only have a Pendant in addition to their Seon if they were vanilla.

Sorry for no notice, but I must have missed Drought voting on Bort. As I said above, I find Bort more suspicious than Rand, so I'm going to move my vote to Bort, putting the number of votes on him at 2. @Young Bard would you be interested in adding a third vote to Bort? Toneread, primarily, and the way he approached the problem of us suspecting each other. A wild Devotary post appeared as I'm typing! Now the Bort lynch is a reality.

(double-post because you can't quote into edits) I'm half-wondering if you did Pendant Eternum. You seemed to be the only one who suspected him.

Orlok shot me a PM, and between that and his big analysis post I'm now reading village on him. Right now I think that Sophie is one of Bort or Randuir. Rand seems more sneaky, but I agree with him that Bort seems very willing to throw suspicion for a player who claims to not know playstyles enough to vote. Randuir is up for lynch right now, and so we can tell whether his points against Bort were legitimate or nefarious. Right now, I'm going to leave the Randuir lynch where it's at and vote Crimsn to give her a chance of becoming unconvertable. I'll likely be on again before turnover, and if another lynch begins to lead other than Rand (or Bort, a lynch I'd actually rather take over Rand, but I don't think there are others who would support me) I'll move my vote to Rand.

I passed on my Pendant last Night to someone I think I can trust. Best case scenario for us, the Gyorn hasn't found their Odiv yet. This could have happened if the Gyorn tried to convert the person who passed me the Pendant, and then tried to convert me--nobody knew I was passing my Pendant. If there is an Odiv as of right now (and the Gyorn has incentive to make one early), there are a few options. It could be the original convert, who could have been converted N1 or N2. It could be the converted Elantrian, made Odiv N2. If the original convert was from a Pendant, and they passed that Pendant N1 to avoid being made Odiv, a completely new player could have been made Odiv N2 if they didn't pass the Pendant.

I'm in class right now so I can't say much, but I can tell you that I'm a vanilla, no role, no nothing. I'm fairly sure Sophie is one of you two who have voted on me, and if not it's one of Rand or Drought.

@BortI'll admit I'm trying to lead the discussion: this game could be decided in the next couple of cycles. Of course I'm trying to kick our analysis into high gear. About the projections, that's because I didn't actually reread the rules before doing them, so I made the standard elim team assumptions: doc and kill. When he backed off of the Contribution Crusade lynch to vote on you, he left a basically-unassailable vote position. If I was Sophie, I would have grabbed onto the easy lynch opportunity and bandwagoned along. Bard skipped the opportunity and helped the village instead. I wasn't trying to start a bandwagon, just getting my vote on the table until I could get something more solid. Right now I'm tipping between voting you or Bort, because of his aggressive move against me when I'm trying to help us by fostering discussion.

I'm going to vote on Orlok, but this is likely not my final vote. The Walin kill was calculated to deprive the village of the information, and it did not seem to be motivated by fear, which are hallmarks of Orlok's style.

That changes tactics up considerably. We can no longer rely on Sophie making an early conversion in order to gain a kill; it is now a viable strategy for them to lurk and kill until there are just a few of us left. In other news: Devotary is cleared in my book, because Sophie was obviously not ignorant of the fact that they could kill. Editing a reads list in: DroughtBringer: no read Eternum: no read Elenion: me Devotary: village for not knowing Sophie could kill, but yet Sophie killed Randuir: slightly village for giving advice, but Rand is crafty Young Bard: village for attempting to use Devotary's plan to get Orlok immune Bort: no read Orlork Tsubodai: no read Elandera (Rayda): village for being helpful and just seeming genuine CrimsnWolf (O7npC): village, because the point of being Sophie is to lie low

I ended last cycle with a "Wait, what?" and I'll begin this one with a "Wait, what?" So it looks like Coop was lynched and Orlok got immunity, which isn't bad. But how was Walin killed? the rules specifically state (emphasis mine) This seems to clearly state that Sophie has access to a kill if and only if there is a Bot who is not Sophie. Secondly: According to the Order of Actions, the elim kill comes before the conversion, so any convert this turn would not have counted towards Sophie having a faction kill or not. That leaves 4 options: 1. Sophie started with a convert, so they had access to the elim kill N1 2. Somehow there is a Knight Lancer out there already 3. I'm misreading the rules 4. GM error @A Joe in the Bush Can you confirm that the presence of the elim kill was not GM error? edit: ninja'd!

Wait, what? We voted on Orlok to get him possibly immune, not because we wanted to kill him!

Vote tally: Elenion (1): Orlok Crimsn (1): Bort Drought (1): Devotary Orlok (1): Bard Coop (2): Elenion, Elandera I'm happy with this. I'm going to hit the shower but I'll be back before turnover.

I don't have much to say right now. What I can say is this: Lopen's response to Araris' death seems unnaturally perky for him, but I wouldn't have paid much attention to it if Wilson had not pointed it out. I am reading Wilson as village because of the accusation, though: it feels real. The question is whether or not it's accurate, and I'll look into that tomorrow or after turnover, because I'm on a laptop, it's late, and I'm in another game as well, so I don't think I'll be getting much good analysis out right now. This entire post is just a ramble... ah well, it is what it is.

Any lynch would help Sophie except one on her, but a mislynch on an inactive would hurt discussion less than a mislynch on an active. If everyone looks to be innocent, we have the same chance of success, so we should minimize the risk we take in getting that identical chance of success.

I think that that's a pretty standard Orlok move. From what I've seen of his playstyle I'm not suspicious, and I'm the one who the vote was on. *chuckles* At this point it might be best to break out the Contribution Crusade on @Coop772 or on @Eternum, because neither of them have posted yet. Coop for now. @Elandera @Walin @Devotary of Spontaneity The forum says you three are on right now, and with only a couple hours to go we're probably going to have to decide today's vote pretty soon. What are your thoughts? I'm up for lynching an inactive, but I have no preference between the two and am open to doing a different lynch altogether. Edit: @Crimsn-Wolf just saw you were on, too.

Someone said it earlier, but Morse code would work. For your words choose dot, dash, and space. For example dot dot dot space dash dash dash space dot dot dot would be SOS, if I remember my Morse code right.

I just reread the rules. She can't kill anyone when it's just her, so no elim kill until C2. Updating... C1: 12 C2: 11 (no elim kill) C3: 8 (elim kills start, Sophie dies) C4: 6 C5: 4, and the elims have parity if all Converts are alive. However, in the previous projections, the elims had the potential to win 2-1 this cycle if they were all alive. So it looks like in the first 4 cycles, we either need to lynch 1 of the Converts, or lynch Sophie and deprive them of a Convert, or else we lose.

"TK421, why aren't you at your post? TK421 do you copy?" TK421 heard McAfee's words through his earpiece and rolled his eyes. "TK421 reporting, at my post." Silence. "This is TK421, at my post." Nothing. McAfee would have to stand by, it must be a bad transmitter. @Orlok Tsubodai I think Orlok is right about Sophie having 2 lives: 3 would make for way too many elims and 1 would just be a sacrifice for Sophie. However, I'm not sure about Sophie converting only active players. They could convert less-active players, and then let the active players tear themselves apart. I don't think they would convert full inactives, though. Right now we have 12 players. With 1 lynch and 1 elim kill per cycle, and a surprise Sophie death partway through... C1: 12 C2: 10 C3: 7 (if Sophie uses 2 conversions first opportunity and dies) C4: 5 C5: 3, and that could be LyLo if we haven't caught the converts since then

@TheYoungPyromancer @little wilson @Devotary of Spontaneity We've been so focused on Araris that we've forgotten Aman's other action. Could one (or all) of you ask him for his Priest scan results?

If the Gyorn knew who the target of the used Pendant was, they would have known that that player was a permanent convert, so they could have Odiv-ed them. The problem is that the Pendant user would know who the target was as well, so it would be a risky move by the Gyorn. If the person who used the Pendant could claim, that would be great.

Taking an aside into physics, it is impossible for an object to rotate based only on forces acting on its center of mass. To cause a rotation you need a torque, which can be basically defined as the magnitude of a force applied x the perpendicular distance to the point of rotation. If the force is at the center of mass, it has zero perpendicular distance, so the torque comes out to zero. (additional source, first sentence of this Wikipedia article). For Zane to rotate, he had to have pushed from a point different from his center of mass, ergo it must be possible for an experienced Steel or Iron user to do.

Hoid?

As a current Derethi Convert I am deeply offended. He has blasphemed Jaddeth, for which crime the punishment is death by lynching!

OK, I can see how you would have meant it that way, and not trying to lead the discussion seems like a villager thing to do because it allows us to get reads. (This makes it the second post of your that I've misread. )