Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Breaker said: Not gonna dedicate the time for a longer post after earlier, but I earnestly don't believe Gears could have kept himself secret as an eliminator around me. Between all the PM's --a dozen pages of them -- I think I'd have found a chink in the armor. Moreover, his tunnel-vision on Dannex would be downright suicidal for an eliminator, since it could easily lead to retaliation in the extremely-likely case that Dannex was Shrekt. If Dannex was an elim, it's a horrible play, and, if Dannex was Vil, counter-Shrek is coming. Gears is my strongest village read. Just let me Like I have zero elim reads. None. Aghghaghahahag Ok, so we have Order, Connie, Orlok left. Basically those. Orlok is too early to tell (please catch up, much thanks) Connie was attacked. Order? (Question I don't want to ask: How likely do you all think it is that the elims had 2 reds to start with?)
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 The following is not to be taken seriously with regards to SE: canonically, the Red Ajah was the largest, and made up the largest faction among the Black Ajah.
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Breaker said: canonically, the Red Ajah was the largest, and made up the largest faction among the Black Ajah. :eyes: What about in regards to SE?
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: The Unknown Order WHAT ARE YOU DOING
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, James Brafin said: WHAT ARE YOU DOING ...What do you mean? I thought it was clear. Look, everyone is so obviously village to me in so many ways that I don't know who to vote. I can clear everyone who is remotely active in ways that make sense, ways that you and a bunch of others have mentioned, logically and mechanically. What I'm doing is the only viable option my brain can logically process right now. You all can exe Dannex or Devotary solely for info- but they all have enough reasons they're village that I don't really want to. The same with Gears, Breaker, Archer, and you.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 44 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: ...What do you mean? I thought it was clear. Look, everyone is so obviously village to me in so many ways that I don't know who to vote. I can clear everyone who is remotely active in ways that make sense, ways that you and a bunch of others have mentioned, logically and mechanically. What I'm doing is the only viable option my brain can logically process right now. You all can exe Dannex or Devotary solely for info- but they all have enough reasons they're village that I don't really want to. The same with Gears, Breaker, Archer, and you. But that asks me to believe that the elims are almost certainly all warders at this point, and I just don't buy it. It just doesn't make any sense! @Orlok Tsubodai, buddy, please tell me you've got some analysis done. I can't do this.
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, James Brafin said: But that asks me to believe that the elims are almost certainly all warders at this point, and I just don't buy it. It just doesn't make any sense! @Orlok Tsubodai, buddy, please tell me you've got some analysis done. I can't do this. Remember. Based on the roles of the elims already dead, the only distribution of remaining ones that makes any sense are either two Aes Sedai or a single Warder. I don't feel comfortable exeing any of the Aes Sedai we have as it stands.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Remember. Based on the roles of the elims already dead, the only distribution of remaining ones that makes any sense are either two Aes Sedai or a single Warder. I don't feel comfortable exeing any of the Aes Sedai we have as it stands. Oh, so you think it could be four-person then. Interesting. The problem is if we are wrong here, we don't have time to fix it. We need confirmation on who the Elim is. Gears, you got a protect left?
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, James Brafin said: Oh, so you think it could be four-person then. Interesting. The problem is if we are wrong here, we don't have time to fix it. We need confirmation on who the Elim is. Gears, you got a protect left? Did you even read my megapost? xD I thought you did. Yeah, that's my biggest issue with this.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 So here's what I propose then: We're at 8/2, worst case scenario; more likely, I think we're at 9/1. That's not terrible. Let's choose two people to remove tonight; one of them can be Order, the other should be someone we can hit tonight for sure, to confirm someone else Breaker watches a target, someone we think might be the next Elim. Elim can't just not kill tonight, especially assuming 9/1, and will likely go after talky PRs again; that would be me, Dice, and Gears at this point. We'll leave a little WIFOM in the mix to keep the Elim guessing, which should make our job a bit easier. Worst case scenario, we go into 6/2, which is a pretty decent place to be in I think; at this point we have four town that is all but confirmed, which is going to make it nearly impossible for Elim to hide. The problem is sighs Dannex and Devo. To be clear, when I say "four town" above, I think Gears and Breaker are pretty much confirmed at this point; their behavior screams town, and Gears is tunneling far too hard for me to believe that he's Elim. But Dannex and Devo are the wildcards here, and could swing either way; sure they could be town, but they could also be the Elimteam, and that stresses me out. I'm pretty sure Orlock is Blue rather than White or Yellow, so Orlock may be able to observe another person -- again, that's not confirmed though. It's not a great plan, but it's not leaving us in the dark. Any suggestions on who the other shot might be?
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Let me sleep on it. glad I’m not the only one who likes bold plans.
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 7 hours ago, James Brafin said: So here's what I propose then: We're at 8/2, worst case scenario; more likely, I think we're at 9/1. That's not terrible. Let's choose two people to remove tonight; one of them can be Order, the other should be someone we can hit tonight for sure, to confirm someone else Breaker watches a target, someone we think might be the next Elim. Elim can't just not kill tonight, especially assuming 9/1, and will likely go after talky PRs again; that would be me, Dice, and Gears at this point. We'll leave a little WIFOM in the mix to keep the Elim guessing, which should make our job a bit easier. Worst case scenario, we go into 6/2, which is a pretty decent place to be in I think; at this point we have four town that is all but confirmed, which is going to make it nearly impossible for Elim to hide. The problem is sighs Dannex and Devo. To be clear, when I say "four town" above, I think Gears and Breaker are pretty much confirmed at this point; their behavior screams town, and Gears is tunneling far too hard for me to believe that he's Elim. But Dannex and Devo are the wildcards here, and could swing either way; sure they could be town, but they could also be the Elimteam, and that stresses me out. I'm pretty sure Orlock is Blue rather than White or Yellow, so Orlock may be able to observe another person -- again, that's not confirmed though. It's not a great plan, but it's not leaving us in the dark. Any suggestions on who the other shot might be? Yeah I've thought about it. I honestly think, whether I like it or not, that a Dannex exe is our best bet. If he flips vil, we have two cleared people, and elim gives us a pool of two. I... know that's been said a thousand times by @Gears and I now agree. We need more information if we're gonna crack this one. I don't even think we should try to tie it.
Gears Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Yeah I've thought about it. I honestly think, whether I like it or not, that a Dannex exe is our best bet. If he flips vil, we have two cleared people, and elim gives us a pool of two. I... know that's been said a thousand times by @Gears and I now agree. We need more information if we're gonna crack this one. I don't even think we should try to tie it. Thank you. @Breaker @James Brafin @Archer, switch? Danex Devotary
Archer he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I think there's a possibility that the elims (Devo/Matrim or Devo/Orlok) are just trolling Dannex. However, a Dannex/Devo Elim team is my most likely scenario, so if you have the votes, I'm happy to go Danex Devotary.
dannnex male Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I’m down, it it means clearing the Greys. But y’all should be sure it actually does. Think of every possible scenario where it doesn’t, and see how likely they are.
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Dannex said: I’m down, it it means clearing the Greys. But y’all should be sure it actually does. Think of every possible scenario where it doesn’t, and see how likely they are. I have soooo many times but I will
Condensation she/her Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Okay, this is going to sound crazy, but it's a theory I had that keeps prickling my brain. What if Mat's the elim? He said 1 Warder as a possibility for the elim team, and he's a Warder. He's also gotten no suspicion on him, which makes me concerned. When he was an elim and totally pocketed me, I completely trusted him. Like, completely. I have to go, but I'll post some evidence when I have time. Lynch me if you will. I get that I'm a Warder as well. But Mat just makes sense to me.
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Condensation said: Okay, this is going to sound crazy, but it's a theory I had that keeps prickling my brain. What if Mat's the elim? He said 1 Warder as a possibility for the elim team, and he's a Warder. He's also gotten no suspicion on him, which makes me concerned. When he was an elim and totally pocketed me, I completely trusted him. Like, completely. I have to go, but I'll post some evidence when I have time. Lynch me if you will. I get that I'm a Warder as well. But Mat just makes sense to me. Connie, I was attacked. This makes about as much sense as me saying you’re the last one. Maybe you are because you suggested this Not to mention me starting the Quinn train and pushing the Lotus one. Edited January 20, 2021 by Matrim's Dice I’ve lost count how many times I’ve said this
|TJ| he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Author Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, James Brafin said: @TJ Shade, can I get a VC? Dannex (3): Matrim's Dice, Gears, Archer Edit: Archer changed as well hold on Edited January 20, 2021 by TJ Shade 1
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Order Devotary, I'm going to need your cooperation here. We need these two tied. I agree that Dannex seems most reasonable, but in the off chance my Warder is Elim, we need them in a place where we can shrek them net cycle. Let the two of them tie; in fact, if you can move a vote to Order if we don't get another by rollover that would be great. But they must tie, no questions.
Condensation she/her Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Connie, I was attacked. This makes about as much sense as me saying you’re the last one. Maybe you are because you suggested this Not to mention me starting the Quinn train and pushing the Lotus one. I was attacked too. Even you've dismissed it as a WGG. All right, I admit that doesn't make much sense. It's just been prickling at me and I thought I should say it.
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