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I do not like where the vote is going rn, it’s too spread out, and I read almost all of the candidates as Vil. Only exception is Devo, who I could see as being Elim, but as we said, if I’m Vil, we can’t really have an Elim Grey. And I obviously know I’m village, so I have to read Devo as Vil too. I guess I’ll vote Burnt, as I can’t really see a better candidate.
Maybe we should take a closer look at the less actives. I can see Connie as being Elim. Maybe. 

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4 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

It’s 5am, and I should be asleep, but on the early game “townslip”, which I agree is noteworthy @Illwei, I see two possibilities. The first, and likeliest I think is that it is genuine - certainly that was my initial read of it, from which I’ve village read James so far this game. That said, knowing him @Breaker, how likely do you think James is to make such a play given their off-site experience?

Gut tells me not so likely - if he was going for such a move, my feeling is that he would also try to underplay his experience.

Breaker doesn't know me from playing Mafia offsite, unfortunately, so it's not a very helpful question -- unless you just mean personality, but I don't know how that factors in? So maybe it's helpful, and I don't realize it? Heck if I know. And I'm not going to WIFOM ya, so :/

 

1 minute ago, Dannex said:

I do not like where the vote is going rn, it’s too spread out, and I read almost all of the candidates as Vil. Only exception is Devo, who I could see as being Elim, but as we said, if I’m Vil, we can’t really have an Elim Grey. And I obviously know I’m village, so I have to read Devo as Vil too. I guess I’ll vote Burnt, as I can’t really see a better candidate.
Maybe we should take a closer look at the less actives. I can see Connie as being Elim. Maybe. 

Making a note of this for later, since I'm explicitly not in this post. I'm confident you're town, Dannex, but I can't just not pretend that you could have nice, deep, warm pockets.

I don't have time to dive tonight but I can try tomorrow between bekfast and classes.

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1 hour ago, James Brafin said:

At this point, I've got the feeling it's best for me to not engage Dice; he's either really deluded town or a blatant Elim, and I feel like that will be obvious at some point.

*Sigh* I don’t think I’m deluded for considering all possibilities. I’ve been kind of distracted today but not that much. Manip is weird.

1 hour ago, James Brafin said:

Barring taking out Devo and I today, I'd like to Shrek in Burnt, Conden, Archer;

Not Archer. He is my Aes Sedai and a Red and I doubt the elims have two.

And suddenly you’re fine with Connie??? What happened to doubting the WGG??? 

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Currently re-reading the cycles, on C2 rn.

Quinn was the first or second to start up on Danex again. I found it strange that she avoided him for so long, but I don't think she would bus him so fast when there were people like me actively trying whatever to save him, and especially considering MR47.

Gears

He wasn't on Lotus D1, He was on Danex D2 and 3, and both Quinn and Lotus placed meaningless votes on him. My problem with this is that his interactions with Quinn feel genuine. they are familiar with eachother though, so...not sure how much weight that can hold.

I just wanna be a sheep my dudes but Mat has turned off the mindmeld with going after Danex :/.

P.S

Honestly, I think the last Elims are in Devo, Mat, Gears, and Breaker. I do have village reads on Breaker and Mat for right now, so I'm okay with killing either Devo or Gears this cycle.

P.P.S
found this little fun guy: not sure how to feel about Mat about it. What am I supposed to say though. I had TMI reads on Lotus, Quinn, and Striker in the beginning? smh. :P.

Spoiler
Quote

[1]Also I want to follow Illwei onto Ash but I've just followed Illwei around this whole game and I'm working on not being so easy to sway because that is definitely something I should work on :P.

Anyway, have some reads! Woo!

  • Dannex: A perhaps controversial Village. I don't see him sticking with the ideas and plans he had the way he did otherwise. MR47 he was definitely flying under the radar as much as he could, and I don't see that here at all.
  • Illwei: Our reads are nearly identical and I don't know what to think about that. Null.
  • Lotus: Gut Slight Elim, don't ask for reasoning because there isn't any.
  • James: Can any of the people reading him evil tell me why they think so? Null.
  • Condensation: A pinch of gut, a bit of the vote on Dannex, a bit of 'her being attacked makes zero sense to me unless WGG'. Mild Elim.
  • Gears/Breaker: Gut Slight Village. Might also be that I don't see them coordinating something like this as elims, that seems rather on the nose. But it's also Gears, sooooo
  • Ash: I don't know what to think about this. Null
  • Quinn: I'd have to check her village games, but I recall Quinn... taking the charge, coming up with ideas, etc more in her elim game, and I see her doing the same now. I kinda read the flip-flopping Dannex votes as trying to do it villagery on purpose, but that thought could have naturally evolved from the former. Slight Elim.

I'll do other people later, maybe. Also, to mix things up, Quinn0928. Voting Connie was mostly ignored. Let's see what happens here.

[1] I was about to say like, "haha mat sheeping me in my village games and suspecting me in my elim games" but like man, mat can read me tho :P. Hoping for another Elim game some day ;-; :P.  see how much worse I've gotten O.o.

He has Elim reads on Lotus and Quinn- Lotus gut, and Quinn for...a completely NAI thing for Quinn. She always kinda is out there and hesitant at the same time, something that I found kinda suspicious at first, and definitely accidentally got her killed for in past games :P. I saw no actual difference in the specific reasoning that Mat used, so It reads like a TMI read to me.

Comes back to bussing though. How willing would Quinn have been to get bussed? I can't see Mat running so free with his minimal reasoning Quinn vote without her being okay with it.

P.P.P.S.

@TJ Shade

Gears, Devotary

went back and took a look at the VC. In interest of not spreading out the vote.

P.P.P.P.S.

These edits are getting out of hand, but I realized too late that people probably wouldn't be up rn to respond to me ;-;. Anyways.

Potentially Mat/Archer interaction Imo. (Comfbias? is that you? :0) with James expressing suspicion of both, and Quinn, Despite having more info on Mat (especially Elim!Mat, as they have been teamed recently) Only adresses the Archer suspicion.

Of couuuuuuurse then he goes and joins me on Striker riiiiight after this MAT WHY ARE YOU BEING SO HARD TO REAAAAAAAAAAD :P.

P.P.P.P.P.S.

*sigh* Something that kinda pings me about James (Agh! stop tinfoiling, Illwei!!!!) is that he uses "we" and "our" in terms of things that individuals in the village are doing. It's probably just me, but that makes me think that's he's trying to get across the point that he's "one of us" too much. I would say "LAMISTing but I absolutely hate that term tbh."

Edited by Illwei
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1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

*Sigh* I don’t think I’m deluded for considering all possibilities. I’ve been kind of distracted today but not that much. Manip is weird.

Not Archer. He is my Aes Sedai and a Red and I doubt the elims have two.

And suddenly you’re fine with Connie??? What happened to doubting the WGG??? 

I'm not sure what I was at when I said that -- I've been kind of focused on a paper all night, and not really paying attention. Connie's not ideal, but after the whole Dannex and the WGG thing their posting has felt unhelpful and lackluster to me, which doesn't make me feel great. Also their posting is reminding me a lot of Lotus' posting, which really really bothers me. Still, that may just be an activity thing, and I'm reading into it too much

So I rescind my statement, I'd be happiest shreking in Burnt, Dice, Archer, and Connie, in that order. I'd do a Dannex lynch if you all absolutely made me. I really don't support a Devo-Only lynch, so if y'all take out Devo you'd better take me with you, so if my theory is correct and we are both Village you don't all waste another day jumping down my throat and just hand the game to the Elims.

Edited by James Brafin
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46 minutes ago, Illwei said:

These edits are getting out of hand, but I realized too late that people probably wouldn't be up rn to respond to me ;-;. Anyways.

Jeez, just @ me if you want to avoid double posting lol xD

Edited by TJ Shade
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7 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

 

So I rescind my statement, I'd be happiest shreking in Burnt, Dice, Archer, and Connie, in that order. I'd do a Dannex lynch if you all absolutely made me. I really don't support a Devo-Only lynch, so if y'all take out Devo you'd better take me with you, so if my theory is correct and we are both Village you don't all waste another day jumping down my throat and just hand the game to the Elims.

I volunteer for first shrekking. You'd learn very little though and be sad so that up to you but. I volunteer so there. I have lost my warnder. theres nothing left for me in this world. I GRIEVE. LET ME JOIN MY WARDER 

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Just now, TJ Shade said:

No, but you seemed to be. Replace all but one of those Ps with Ss and it looks like you're calling a cat. :P

??? How the heck do you be calling cats???

"Psssssssssssssssssssssss" ???????????

@Burnt Spaghetti as someone with cats please tell me this is not how you call them??

1 minute ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

I volunteer for first shrekking. You'd learn very little though and be sad so that up to you but. I volunteer so there. I have lost my warnder. theres nothing left for me in this world. I GRIEVE. LET ME JOIN MY WARDER 

BURNT NO

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Devotary (2): Archer, Illwei
James (2): Matrim's Dice, Order
Matrim (1): Breaker
Dannex (1): Gears

Burnt (1): Dannex
Gears(1): Devotary

59 minutes ago, Illwei said:

went back and took a look at the VC. In interest of not spreading out the vote.

Any particular reason for thinking that Dannex is village while I'm evil?

I don't think the elims would be sacrificing a warder life right when they're going to be losing their third member, so not voting Matrim. James was around at rollover C1 to have purposefully removed a vote that would force the shrek to hit elim Lotus without hitting Dannex, who I still don't think is evil.

9 hours ago, Gears said:

If Danex is vil, so are the Greys. Otherwise, Quinn would have voted Danex and gotten a vil!Brown killed.

We know why Quinn didn't vote in self-preservation. She said so in blue text. There were three votes on Dannex, only two on her making her not in obviously fatal danger, and she couldn't be around for the remaining hour and forty minutes of the cycle.

I'll vote for Gears here, mostly for the vote patterns and continued push for Dannex to die.

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7 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

It’s 5am, and I should be asleep, but on the early game “townslip”, which I agree is noteworthy @Illwei, I see two possibilities. The first, and likeliest I think is that it is genuine - certainly that was my initial read of it, from which I’ve village read James so far this game. That said, knowing him @Breaker, how likely do you think James is to make such a play given their off-site experience?

Gut tells me not so likely - if he was going for such a move, my feeling is that he would also try to underplay his experience.

Alright. @James Brafin, I’m asking your permission to get personal. 
 

Also, we’re kind of turning into a free-for-all, so I’m about to start getting aggressive to protect my interests. This didn’t exactly go well for me in MR47, what with Bloody Saturday being half my fault, but Gears, James, and Burnt are all on the table, so, unless I can get somebody else on the chopping block, Operation: Pathfinder Survival is at risk. 
 

I’ll say this before closing this kind-of dumb post. Gears is my strongest village read, followed by Illwei. Their equal and opposite positions on Dannex are way too risky at this point for anyone elim to take without a death wish, given the risks to Dannex dying being so high, and the discussion yielding so much data. James is a village read to me, but I’m holding off on elaborating on why it’s a light one without his permission to talk about my experiences with him. If he declines, I’ll ask that nobody hold that against him; it’s his right to keep the worlds separate, and I asked him to play this game with us. 
 

Burnt, my friend, you are a neutral read to me. Theoretically, you’re a dangerous elim, since you’re hard to Shrek by popularity, and you’re experienced enough to pattern well. That said, I’m not exactly afraid enough; I, uh, kinda don’t think you will keep up with this game without some kind of burnout, even with the slowing pace. Given that, I’m going to consider what you look like as a villager. In that case, please don’t joke about wanting to die; you’re foiling my plans of playing with my friends. Stand up for yourself. 
 

I really do not trust my ability to read. 
 

Finally, given Illwei’s request earlier, I will conceal my Blue scan from Gears this round if three people in total ask me to. Gears, this is not ultimately decided, and I will hear out your counter-argument, here and in PM. I do not like to take charge; I propose ideas and let my team process. I’ll try to keep up with the thread better today; I was actually unconscious before midnight, so it’s either Armageddon or I’m just paying for my poor life choices. Cuz it’s cold this morning. Brrr.

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5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Devotary (2): Archer, Illwei
James (2): Matrim's Dice, Order
Matrim (1): Breaker
Dannex (1): Gears

Burnt (1): Dannex
Gears(1): Devotary

Any particular reason for thinking that Dannex is village while I'm evil?

I don't think the elims would be sacrificing a warder life right when they're going to be losing their third member, so not voting Matrim. James was around at rollover C1 to have purposefully removed a vote that would force the shrek to hit elim Lotus without hitting Dannex, who I still don't think is evil.

We know why Quinn didn't vote in self-preservation. She said so in blue text. There were three votes on Dannex, only two on her making her not in obviously fatal danger, and she couldn't be around for the remaining hour and forty minutes of the cycle.

I'll vote for Gears here, mostly for the vote patterns and continued push for Dannex to die.

Oh guys
On one hand, Devotary doesn't vote Matrim because he's an elim, doesn't vote me because he thinks I'm town, then shades me hard by saying "Here's why one of the Greys could be scum" and then voting a different warder to tie it at three votes again, which screams to me as being aggressive posturing; 
On the other, they have the wrong number on the Elims, which I'm pretty sure is a townslip, but could also be Schum trying to build cred?
I really don't know what to do. I really don't. :( Someone help

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17 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Burnt, my friend, you are a neutral read to me. Theoretically, you’re a dangerous elim, since you’re hard to Shrek by popularity, and you’re experienced enough to pattern well. That said, I’m not exactly afraid enough; I, uh, kinda don’t think you will keep up with this game without some kind of burnout, even with the slowing pace. Given that, I’m going to consider what you look like as a villager. In that case, please don’t joke about wanting to die; you’re foiling my plans of playing with my friends. Stand up for yourself. 

Siiiiiigh yeah i know. That's why i play long games- I can take days off without getting getting behind.  Ill go try read thread again and see if my brain wants to actually parse the info and build a suspicion or two then so i can at least attempt to say something useful :P

Death is banned, got it.

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Guest Breaker

My experience of James offsite, in pathfinder, is that we are both planners in that game, and I like to present plans and concerns to the group before proceeding, whereas he sometimes gets ahead of himself with the ideas. He actually asked us to stop listening to his plans unless someone else vetted them this week. It seems entirely in character for him to all-in commit to an idea, realize only after the fact that it’s got a critical hole, and earnestly respond with how much of a mess-up he made.

Admittedly, I’m not sure how much this would differ between village and elim for him. But I never read it as an elim tell. My suspicion for how he’d play as an elim would be that he’d attempt to earn cred with the perfect reads early, then turn that cred on someone that looks like an earnest mistake in hindsight. Remove a threat, mitigate the perfect read. And a reaction to one’s own mistakes. But I’m a newbie, posting shortly after waking up, so take that with a grain of salt. I literally brought in a character on Sunday that was designed to make up for his mistakes by being a support character built for his PC to play off of. He just gets himself in situations. The earnest point I don’t want to make is that I think he can sometimes get a bit overconfident, and it’s a bit mean to out a friend on that to strangers. 

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7 hours ago, Illwei said:

He has Elim reads on Lotus and Quinn- Lotus gut, and Quinn for...a completely NAI thing for Quinn. She always kinda is out there and hesitant at the same time, something that I found kinda suspicious at first, and definitely accidentally got her killed for in past games :P. I saw no actual difference in the specific reasoning that Mat used, so It reads like a TMI read to me.

In hindsight, I'm actually really happy with that reads list B) maybe that's why I was attacked. (I didn't think the reasoning on Quinn was NAI. And maybe I was right, cause she was evil!)

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

Potentially Mat/Archer interaction Imo.

...We're bonded :P. Did everyone miss that part?

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

*sigh* Something that kinda pings me about James (Agh! stop tinfoiling, Illwei!!!!) is that he uses "we" and "our" in terms of things that individuals in the village are doing. It's probably just me, but that makes me think that's he's trying to get across the point that he's "one of us" too much. I would say "LAMISTing but I absolutely hate that term tbh."

I'm writing a James post that should drop in about an hour and will more coherently say my thoughts. So, someone else post :P 

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Guest Breaker

Dannex, what would you think of role-scanning  Orlok? We haven’t had their inherited role in play, so we’ve been unable to deduce based on that information. Thoughts from the rest of the team?

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22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In hindsight, I'm actually really happy with that reads list B) maybe that's why I was attacked. (I didn't think the reasoning on Quinn was NAI. And maybe I was right, cause she was evil!)

...We're bonded :P. Did everyone miss that part?

I'm writing a James post that should drop in about an hour and will more coherently say my thoughts. So, someone else post :P 

I hope you have one coming for Devotary too, considering that they are also a Grey and should be under just as much suspicion.

The very fact that you're tunneling me so hard and refusing to look at anyone else makes me more and more suspicious. The more I read it, the more it feels like you just want there to be an Elim in the Greys, rather than having any reason to believe that there is one.

While I'm here, Devotary to prevent a tie. I'll keep a close eye on things and tamper wherever I need to. I really really hate this, but we 100% don't need to lose four people and I'm willing to drop tonight as well if it gives the rest of town some peace of mind. When we both flip town, y'all should really be taking a long, hard look at Dice and Archer. (For those of you who are uncomfortable with a tie here, I'd like to remind you that even if we both are Village, as I am confident we are, that takes you from 10/2 to 7/2 to 5/2 to 3/2 if there's another misshrek cycle 5 and cycle 6; as opposed to going from 10/2 to 8/2 to 6/2 to 4/2. You're at exlo either way in the same number of turns, but you enter with a great deal more information in the former situation because the pool is smaller. That's part of makes me ok with dying here; I know that even when my suspicions are proven correct I'm shifting Town back to odds with my death which gives Town an edge going in.)

Edited by James Brafin
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Ok, so here is a hopefully coherent thought jumble on our very own @James Brafin.

3 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

I hope you have one coming for Devotary too, considering that they are also a Grey and should be under just as much suspicion.

Unlike you, Devotary hasn't really said much to analyze. Which is typically normal. And, unlike you, her actions seem villagery to me.

4 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

The very fact that you're tunneling me so hard and refusing to look at anyone else makes me more and more suspicious. The more I read it, the more it feels like you just want there to be an Elim in the Greys, rather than having any reason to believe that there is one.

I have reasons to believe there is one, distribution thoughts. I know that most of the time the elim team gets some vote manip. 

5 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

When we both flip town, y'all should really be taking a long, hard look at Dice and Archer.

Are you really saying this? Not only did I start the entire suspicion on Quinn, push for Lotus to be killed, and get attacked, I'm bonded to a red. Archer is a red. Are you saying the elims have two reds? This is just incorrect. And you're surety of it- 'when we both flip town', 'when my suspicions are proven correct', are just weird to me.

Anyway.

We start off early last cycle, when the first whispers of a Lotus exe start flittering in. James begun moving things off of Lotus, almost casually. First happened here, (which was called out by Illwei) and then again right here, (the interesting thing about this one is how James brought it back to Burnt losing her power [:(],)  and the big one right here, which supremely understates what we would get from Lotus' flip. It reeks of a casual defense- one where they're technically not village reading them. My only issue with this is that it doesn't seem like something an experienced player would do, but that can be explained away by James' vote later.

Also, unrelated but I thought it was important: @EveryoneVotingGears, Lotus started a countertrain on Gears as her main suspicion, so... That seems important.

Back to James.

Anyway, Lotus flips Black Ajah, and now what we have is James explaining why he is clear and everyone just listening. Well, I'm here to say that it is not exclusively how it is described by James.

He said- and you all said as well- basically this, first said by James:

Quote

So if Dannex is really town like Dice and Illwei (and I) believe, there cannot be a Gray Elim, as they would have manipulated the votes to shoot him on a tie rather than letting their Elim buddy ddie without a fight.

Which would be true, but it's not. Think about it. The votes at the end of C3 are presented here:

Quote

Quinn0928 (4) : Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Dannex, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (3) : Gears, Breaker, Archer
Archer (2): Lotus, James Brafin

ElimGrey!James knows there are two options here. The first and most obvious one is to manip away from Quinn so Dannex and Quinn both die. But, there's something else that James knows. He knows that the other Grey has been saving Dannex the entire game. If he were to manip a vote away from Quinn, it's only natural to expect that the other vote manipper does what they've done the whole game and manip Dannex. Which would exe Quinn anyway, and the vote count would show that a vote was taken off Quinn, confirming an elim Grey. And when the Greys are inevitebly outed, he'd instant;y be suspected So that would be out.

Instead, ElimGrey!James knew that Quinn would likely die anyway. Even if the manip did save them, they'd likely just be exed next cycle, and again after the flip it would confirm that there is an elim Grey. So, James does the very thing he's claiming would be too risky and far-fetched for an elim to do.

Now we have this situation, where James, as a Grey, has all the 'evidence' he needs to explain why he is village. He can show that he didn't save Quinn, say that letting her die would have been a bad move, but in reality it's a great move.

And... I get that this is tinfoily... but it just makes sense to me. It's a low-risk gambit that effectively clears an elim at the expense at another that was already dead. What elim wouldn't go for this?

If I'm right about this, I'm one hundred percent dead. Like- I'm the only one putting resistance on James' village position. If they're evil there's no way I live through the night. (That doesn't mean that if I live he's good, though, cause IKYK, and me saying this in the first place probably changes everything- but still.)

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Guest Breaker

Letting you all know, I’ve bargained with Gears. They’ll vote how I do this cycle, and I will give them my vote in a future one. For now, my pressure goes on Devotary

@Illwei, you’re arguing in favor of ties now. I know I traditionally oppose double-kill ties, but I’ve suspected a four-elim team, in which case, they likely die easily to two deaths per round, now, and, in which case, they can’t safely vote manip, with our public knowledge, and the unlikelihood of three greys. I am still pondering the idea. If you’ve further arguments for it, I would hear them, if you please. 

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I still don't see why we shouldn't X Danex, since their flip would prove the Greys' alignments. Then we wouldn't lose two valuable village tools in a worst-case. Option 1: We X the Greys, if >= 1 of them flip elim, we X Danex, if they flip vil, we look at Bubbles. Option 2: We X Danex, if they flip elim, we X the Greys, if they flip vil, we look at Bubbles and go into the endgame with assurance in village vote manip, which can prevent mis-Xs and such. Option 1 results in 2 dead tools, Option 2 doesn't [unless they are evil]. Besides, Brown is less important now that we have certainty in nearly everyone's roles. However, I have made a bargain with the chaos demon to follow my Aes Sedai wherever they may go, so on this day, my vote belongs to Kai [Breaker]. I simply wanted to point this out. There is no reason to vote off the Greys when we can just vote off Danex to achieve the same ends. 

@Devotary of Spontaneity@James Brafin@Breaker , would you like to coordinate votes and X Danex? If Danex is vil, that clears both the Greys. If Danex is elim, one of you is elim, and we'll need the other one to help in this endeavor. If Kai and I both vote Danex as well, that is probably enough, even with 1 elim Grey, since that elim Grey can realise that they are more important than a useless elim Brown when the roles have been solved already and actively goes along with the plan and busses Danex to prevent a tie that kills 2 elims instead of one because the vote manip just turns out that way which would cause the elims to lose [hint hint, if you exist]. We can ensure that village tools survive, we minimise our losses, and the outcome will be the same if there are elims in the bunch.

However, I have promised my vote to Kai this cycle, so unless they countermand their countermand, I shall vote Devotary (Danex)

Also, formatting has gone berserk. I've lost the ability to both @ people and start a new paragraph. I've had to c/p my paragraph breaks and @s from other posts. 

Edited by Gears
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