dannnex male Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Gears said: Besides, that was the consensus, with or without you. I was the very first person to guess that we’d have one Elim Grey and one Vil Grey.
Guest Breaker Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Dannex said: I was the very first person to guess that we’d have one Elim Grey and one Vil Grey. In fairness. That’s sort of a natural thought, I’d bet.
dannnex male Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 @Gears, if you really want a me-exe we can do that. I’m not saying that sarcastically or frustratedly. Completely calm and genuine. As I said before, I was more concerned with protecting the role than myself, and it seems like numerous people have the game completely role-solved, so my role no longer matters. We’re doing pretty well, all things considered, we can probably spare a single exe if it means getting the Vil on the right track. We could purposely orchestrate a tie between me and someone else even, so it’s not a complete waste. And we know who the Greys are now, so we can just ask them not to save me. I only ask that you really take a look, and consider if maybe you’ve been tunneling a little bit. If you still think a me-exe would be useful, I’d be on board.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Gears said: Liranil vote, no Quinn self-pres/tie vote [and elims would want tie, especially on vil!Brown], assumption of 1 elim Grey by nearly everyone leading to scenario where Danex is being saved by both parties, some more things I can't remember. Being right makes you look better. Besides, that was the consensus, with or without you. The Liranil vote I'm not going to try to disagree looks weird -- but no weirder than my whole deal with Striker without context It's could be odd that Dannex didn't vote Quinn -- except if what you say is true about relying on Grey, he was probably relying on Devo or I to protect him, as we have been doing so he didn't need to self-pres. Also, Dannex missed rollover, just like I did. You're Elim-Reading for something that's completely NAI. The assumption of 1 Grey elim by everyone is 1) setup-speculation and 2) consistent, even when unnecessary. This all, however, has brought up a great point that I didn't even realize, which is that in a world where Dannex is town, we can't have a Grey Elim. If Devo is really a grey, as I believe (and I will readily confirm that I did not act on the Quinn shrek) -- they would have tied it so that we at least lost Dannex alongside Quinn. Same for D1; with an outed Brown, if there really was a grey Elim, there was plenty of opportunity to tie up that vote and take Dannex down too. So if Dannex is really town like Dice and Illwei (and I) believe, there cannot be a Gray Elim, as they would have manipulated the votes to shoot him on a tie rather than letting their Elim buddy ddie without a fight. tl;dr If we believe 1 brown is Town and 1 is Elim, then our options are either (Dannex and James/Devo) or (Burnt, ???). Based on voting mechanics, those are the only two possibilities here. Edited January 18, 2021 by James Brafin tl;dr
Gears Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Dannex said: I only ask that you really take a look, and consider if maybe you’ve been tunneling a little bit. If you still think a me-exe would be useful, I’d be on board. If not you, then who? Our other options seem to be for no reason. You were simply removed as an option, which I did not understand. I want to X you because there are reasons to X you. What are the reasons on the others? They are Grey Ajah? They were bonded to an elim? These are not good reasons. These are not the sort of reasons I consider to be valid. You have reasons. They don't, so tell me what I'm missing. Tell me who to vote and why. Give me a target. 2 minutes ago, James Brafin said: It's could be odd that Dannex didn't vote Quinn -- except if what you say is true about relying on Grey, he was probably relying on Devo or I to protect him, as we have been doing so he didn't need to self-pres. Also, Dannex missed rollover, just like I did. You're Elim-Reading for something that's completely NAI. I was talking about Quinn not self-pres voting on Danex. They could have tied it with an important villager, and if there is an elim!Grey, maybe saved Quinn. 1
dannnex male Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Gears said: These are not the sort of reasons I consider to be valid. Well I guess that’s the difference between us. I consider those reasons to make sense. Role distribution isn’t random, therefore we can derive information from it.
Guest Breaker Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 God, imagine if role distribution was random, and the elims had two greens.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Gears said: If not you, then who? Our other options seem to be for no reason. You were simply removed as an option, which I did not understand. I want to X you because there are reasons to X you. What are the reasons on the others? They are Grey Ajah? They were bonded to an elim? These are not good reasons. These are not the sort of reasons I consider to be valid. You have reasons. They don't, so tell me what I'm missing. Tell me who to vote and why. Give me a target. I was talking about Quinn not self-pres voting on Danex. They could have tied it with an important villager, and if there is an elim!Grey, maybe saved Quinn. So you're arguing that if Quinn and Dannex were Elims together, then Quinn votes Dannex, then the elim!Grey saves Quinn (Black/Red) instead of Dannex (Black/Brown)? That doesn't make sense -- you're trading a weaker power role for a stronger one, with no benefit. In fact, it only makes sense in one situation: the situation you just described. It only works if you (Gears) know for certain that Dannex is Town. That's not super clear, so let me explain. Situation 1(Gear's Hypothesized Universe): Quinn!Elim + Dannex!Elim Quinn Votes Dannex Grey Tampers Quinn's Wagon Quinn lives, Dannex Dies, Quinn survives. Situation 2 (Parallel universe): Quinn!Elim + Dannex!Town Quinn Votes Dannex Grey Tampers Quinn's Wagon Dannex Dies, Quinn confirms as Elim. Quinn gets 1 day. Situation 3(Our world): Quin!Elim + Dannex!??? Quinn does not vote Dannex Grey Tampers Dannex's Wagon Quinn Dies Those are the three universes that we have to work with. In Universe 1, the weaker role lives. In universe 2, Quinn wastes a kill and gets Dannex gone. In universe 3, where we are, we have what happened -- Quinn doesn't try and vote Dannex, and dies to protect(?) Dannex Except if the Elims had a Grey, they would have used it at that point to tie up the running and bring down Dannex, despite losing Quinn. My point is, the angle you are arguing at, that Quinn votes Dannex to save herself, only works if you, Gears, are arguing with the knowledge that Dannex is Town and not an Elim.
Illwei Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Breaker said: Grammer :/// Anyways: sigh. did a lotus ISO, nothing of real importance so I'm just going to summarize my thoughts. In the end in terms of Danex, I think I have to wonder how willing he would be to be bussed. in his last game, he was extremely resentful about being bussed, and with that having just ended...a week ago? I don't think he would be all too keen on that again. Lotus advocated against there the browns being Vil/Elim.I still.., I don't know what to think about this? This was after Danex outed as a Brown, and so we have her on day 2, saying that both Browns could be village, but if we flip Danex then that might give us info on the other brown if there is one? Could this potentially be a setup for a ML on Burnt? She ends up voting Archer. Yeah. no clue on that one. That's two semi-distanc-y votes placed in the pool of Archer-Elim-Elim, but that's....it's not anything, and I do think that Archer is Village-whether or not mat is. :P. Also it's been established that James isn't a new player, and so when she puts him in her reads as village because "newer player" It makes me go ??? I got nothing from this so I'm going to try and look at quinn. smh, :D.
Gears Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, James Brafin said: So you're arguing that if Quinn and Dannex were Elims together, then Quinn votes Dannex, then the elim!Grey saves Quinn (Black/Red) instead of Dannex (Black/Brown)? That doesn't make sense -- you're trading a weaker power role for a stronger one, with no benefit. In fact, it only makes sense in one situation: the situation you just described That... is not my argument. My argument is that IF Danex was vil, THEN Quinn would have voted them to save themself. SINCE Quinn did not do that, Danex is not vil. I am aware that this is a logical fallacy, but there was no reason for Quinn to not vote Danex if Danex is vil. 1
James Brafin he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, James Brafin said: This all, however, has brought up a great point that I didn't even realize, which is that in a world where Dannex is town, we can't have a Grey Elim. If Devo is really a grey, as I believe (and I will readily confirm that I did not act on the Quinn shrek) -- they would have tied it so that we at least lost Dannex alongside Quinn. Same for D1; with an outed Brown, if there really was a grey Elim, there was plenty of opportunity to tie up that vote and take Dannex down too. So if Dannex is really town like Dice and Illwei (and I) believe, there cannot be a Gray Elim, as they would have manipulated the votes to shoot him on a tie rather than letting their Elim buddy ddie without a fight. tl;dr If we believe 1 brown is Town and 1 is Elim, then our options are either (Dannex and James/Devo) or (Burnt, ???). Based on voting mechanics, those are the only two possibilities here. @Illwei Tell me what you think of this.
dannnex male Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Gears said: That... is not my argument. My argument is that IF Danex was vil, THEN Quinn would have voted them to save themself. SINCE Quinn did not do that, Danex is not vil. I am aware that this is a logical fallacy, but there was no reason for Quinn to not vote Danex if Danex is vil. Unless she assumed the Greys would save me again, so she knew she would die either way. Not voting me would cause more chaos as it would make people more suspicious, as you are now.
Illwei Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, James Brafin said: @Illwei Tell me what you think of this. Who was on at the end of the cycle? was the quinn vote a last minute vote as well? is it possible that the Elims didn't anticipate Quinn taking the lead?
James Brafin he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Dannex said: Unless she assumed the Greys would save me again, so she knew she would die either way. Not voting me would cause more chaos as it would make people more suspicious, as you are now. But the only way Quinn would assume the Greys would save you again is if they knew that both Greys were village. That means, again, that there can be no Grey Elims if you are town.
Gears Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Dannex said: Unless she assumed the Greys would save me again, so she knew she would die either way. Not voting me would cause more chaos as it would make people more suspicious, as you are now. Then the elims have no Grey, under this logic, since there are only 2 and any effort to save Quinn from the X would either succeed or hit an important villager. As such, we now have fewer targets. I'd like to point out that the only refutation of my point is one that acknowledges its correctness and points out an edge case. Jam, your point is excellent, but stop ninja'ing me. Edited January 18, 2021 by Gears 1
Illwei Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, James Brafin said: they would have tied it so that we at least lost Dannex alongside Quinn. Same for D1; with an outed Brown Because this makes sense to me. Yeah. My problem is I don't know how Danex would feel about bussing right now. I think it's possible that the village has two vote manips. maybe. what would the Elims be given to balance that out though? another Warder?
James Brafin he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Illwei said: Because this makes sense to me. Yeah. My problem is I don't know how Danex would feel about bussing right now. I think it's possible that the village has two vote manips. maybe. what would the Elims be given to balance that out though? another Warder? Yeah, I think so. Also there has to be a reason that Dannex isn't dead yet. You don't just let a power role sit around like that. It's not particularly great, but it's strong as far as this game goes. Edit: Speaking of, here's what we know (working on the assumption that Dannex is Town): Dice: Warder, ??? Gears: Warder, ??? Breaker: Blue Town, W/Gears Archer: Red W/Dice Order: Warder, ??? James: Grey Town, W/Order Burnt: Brown (Disabled) ??? Illwei: White Town (I think) W/Conden Dannex: Brown Town Devo: Grey Town Conden: Warder Town Orlock: Blue (I think) ??? --- Liranil: Green Town Shard: Yellow Town Ashbringer: Blue Town Striker: White Elim Quinn: Red Elim Lotus: Warder Elim ???: Warder Elim ???: ??? Elim Books: Red Town Edit Edit: it just occurred to me that I'm assuming Illwei is town. Either that's right, or you've got really deep pockets. I don't think it's too far to assume though that there was one White Elim and one White Town. Edited January 18, 2021 by James Brafin
Illwei Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, James Brafin said: Yeah, I think so. Also there has to be a reason that Dannex isn't dead yet. You don't just let a power role sit around like that. It's not particularly great, but it's strong as far as this game goes. So are you arguing for Danex to be an Elim? The people I would be fine with killing are Gears, Order, Burnt, and Orlok. (Vil!Danex), or Danex, James/Devo, (Order, Orlok, Gears), (Elim!Danex) I'm just not sure what you're arguing for, and I'm still going to go back and try and look at quinn. I know that Quinn, Striker, Lotus: they all argued against Danex dying at first, and then eventually (except striker) got on. Danex has moved back to Null for me atm. pending....me being able to think.
Archer he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 Vote manipulator roles are much more useful for the elims than for the village. The standard setup for them in one to each team. Having to justify your choices to a Warder makes the role less powerful, so it makes sense to me that the unbonded Grey is the elim. (You're Warderless, right Devotary?) However, that is all meta speculation. To be fair to Devotary, let’s take a look at their posts and see if there’s a case to be made against them. They’ve made 16 posts, so I’m going to continue this under a spoiler tag: Spoiler 1. [Rules speculation] “There's potentially enough village protection that the elims would need a larger-than-standard team.” +V for guessing large elim team. “Claiming elim wasn't a good strategy for Gears, why are you doing it now?” Talking to Illwei here, who joked about talking to the elim team. “Warders don't start out knowing what kind of Ajah their partner is.” Here they slip, revealing they don’t have a PM. 2. “Missed a lot of what was going on it seems. Dannex isn't playing like I remember from MR47 elim game. Green Ajah claim can be confirmed pretty easily, but it's better if the kill target is announced seconds before rollover since the elims can also kill. It's 6-5 against Dannex right now, I will not be reading all these new posts, and just vote for Lotus instead.” +V for voting an elim, +E for doing it near rollover. Consistent stance on Dannex. *DAY TWO* 3. “If the Grey Ajah wanted to save Dannex specifically, Ash who placed his vote early and Lotus who definitely wasn't going to switch her vote off their main competition would be good choices. An elim Grey Ajah might as well use their ability, since it's unlikely any given player will be scanned by a Blue Ajah and being seen targeting someone who doesn't die isn't automatically incriminating. I don't see why the elims couldn't have a Brown Ajah though. There's too many unknowns about the distribution to say that's too powerful.” Commenting on who the vote was switched from. (In post 15 they say they vote moved Ash). 4. “I think the point is that an elim wouldn't have removed a vote from Dannex if Lotus was evil (although I guess the elims would have known elim!Lotus would survive), and thus if Dannex is suggesting that the elims did purposefully remove a vote it's implying a belief that the elims would be okay with Lotus being exed.” Responding to Illwei saying Dannex thinks they’re being framed. +E because Lotus is evil 5. “It doesn't look like my vote means anything at this point. Downside of missing most of the content right before rollover. Still don't think Dannex is a good exe but nothing will come of it unless a bunch of people vote for Quinn or something.” Supports Dannex, seems noncommittal 6. *minutes later* “Ash, for future reference.” +E for voting Ash *DAY THREE* 7. “I'm thinking Illwei, James, Matrim lean village, I still do think Dannex is village but I'd like to have the switch of 'why are we voting for a villager, let's go for anyone else' to happen a bit sooner. Only one Grey Ajah went in Dannex's defence, which I think is an overall plus. I'll start with Quinn I think, since she was the most concerned with preventing the kill on Striker.” Village reads on Illwei, James, Matrim, Dannex. +V for wanting predictability +V for voting Quinn. (See post 15 where they say they were the Grey who did that). 8. “I'd like to avoid the thing where I read 7 pages 30 minutes before rollover in order to figure out who to vote for.” I feel ya 9. “Quinn is for defending Striker and trying to push Liranil's kill off him, Archer I see is for continuing to push Dannex and misrepresenting the arguments around Dannex and Striker.” Susses a village and an elim, so they cancel out *DAY FOUR* 10. “Dannex voted for Ash a couple minutes after the cycle ended. E/E Dannex Lotus is because Lotus voted for Archer when Quinn and Dannex were tied for the lead? You can fake multiquote by putting in a quote box and then c/ping in parts of someone's post.” This was in response to Illwei’s “So Danex was on both the Quinn and Lotus Counterwagons, and not on Ash. If Lotus flips Elim then I really do think this looks bad for Danex. If E!Lotus then Danex has been on an Elim each cycle, which could be him trying to not look guilty in voting out villagers.” It’s just a clarification post really. 11. *list* “We have this for public claims I think, with bonded pairs noted by first initial. Illwei knows who Mat's Ajah is. Dannex has scanned someone as a Warder. We know that out of the unknowns there are two Grey Ajah. I am not Connie's Ajah.” This is my favourite post of theirs because it’s helpful. Completely NAI though. 12. “So James is the Ajah and Order is the Warder in contrast to what Matrim guessed and I reported as fact without checking. I'm pretty sure village!Lotus's reads include Gears being an elim, hence the vote.” I can’t fid which vote they’re referring to. But that’s on me, not them. I’m sure it made more sense in context. 13. “i” Never mind, this is my favourite post. (Shrekman guess) 14. “Main village Lotus scenario is where one of the Grey Ajah is an elim and purposefully removed a vote from Dannex to make sure Lotus got hit. Wouldn't be quite as clearing since a Grey Ajah would know Lotus is a Warder with a double life if they were both evil. Burnt, the Grey Ajah you know might be relevant, especially if they didn't vote for Lotus. Edit: You aren't supposed to put votes in edits but it's almost seven hours until rollover so there should be plenty of time for @TJ Shade to see it. I'll put a vote on Lotus but will not be around to see any EoD discussion.” +E for defending Lotus. Was fishing for the Grey, which is interesting. It would have been easier on elim!Devotary if they hadn’t had to claim. +V for voting Lotus, but it was a done deal by then. *DAY FIVE* 15. *now an outed Grey, asked what they’ve done so far* “Sure. I removed a vote from Dannex the first three cycles and then cancelled Lotus's vote just to show I was still here. Targeted Lotus, Ash, Gears, and Lotus.” Hehe, you made Lotus vote for themselves. 16. *Dannex asks why me? “I spent the first three cycles saying you weren't evil and backed it up with my role. I didn't claim because I didn't want to reveal my role before it was necessary.” *comparing notes with James* “Who did you target C1? 4-3-2 on C3 doesn't seem like a wide wagon, all it would have taken was one vote manip to make Dannex die alongside Quinn.” As expected, there’s no smoking gun. What struck me most is how unremarkable they’ve been. These are low profile posts with pretty unobjectionable content. Nothing they’ve said makes me think they’re working hard to come up with fresh ideas or solve the game. (If you end up being village, I apologize). My general read is that they’re an elim playing it safe by largely agreeing with consensus views. Coupled with the meta-role analysis, I feel comfortable voting Devotary. I think we should just try to exe them this cycle, rather than try to make a tie scheme work. We're far from exelo.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Illwei said: So are you arguing for Danex to be an Elim? The people I would be fine with killing are Gears, Order, Burnt, and Orlok. (Vil!Danex), or Danex, James/Devo, (Order, Orlok, Gears), (Elim!Danex) I'm just not sure what you're arguing for, and I'm still going to go back and try and look at quinn. I know that Quinn, Striker, Lotus: they all argued against Danex dying at first, and then eventually (except striker) got on. Danex has moved back to Null for me atm. pending....me being able to think. No no, I still think that Dannex is almost 100% town here. There's nothing to suggest otherwise. I'm just trying to think why the Elims would just leave a PR like that alive. I think Burnt is ok (sorry Burnt <3); it tells us at least something -- if we know where Burnt sits, we know where to go next. P-Edit: Hold up, @Archer you might want to check the thread. Unless you're telling me you think Dannex is also an Elim, we've locked both the Greys as Town with voting and role mechainics.
Mat he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 I only skimmed all that, but why exactly are we assuming both Greys are vil? Why couldn’t one Grey (vil) removed from Dannex because they trusted them, and one Grey (elim) to sow chaos and confusion?
Guest Breaker Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 21 minutes ago, Illwei said: I think it's possible that the village has two vote manips. maybe. what would the Elims be given to balance that out though? another Warder? A pizza party? That’s what teachers always offered me in school. You know, if I didn’t flip a trash can for a whole month.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I only skimmed all that, but why exactly are we assuming both Greys are vil? Why couldn’t one Grey (vil) removed from Dannex because they trusted them, and one Grey (elim) to sow chaos and confusion? And leave a Brown PR alive? My friend, you're edging into very tinfoily territory. They've had multiple opportunities to tie a vote and take down a town powerhouse with minimal losses, they should be taking them if they're not I'm honestly appalled.
Gears Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I only skimmed all that, but why exactly are we assuming both Greys are vil? Why couldn’t one Grey (vil) removed from Dannex because they trusted them, and one Grey (elim) to sow chaos and confusion? If Danex is vil, so are the Greys. Otherwise, Quinn would have voted Danex and gotten a vil!Brown killed. The fallacy so many are engaging in is that they assume Danex to be village. I believe the opposite. Proposal: X Danex. If they're vil, we clear two people. If they're not, we kill an elim and narrow the pool of elims to two people. 1
Illwei Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, James Brafin said: And leave a Brown PR alive? My friend, you're edging into very tinfoily territory. They've had multiple opportunities to tie a vote and take down a town powerhouse with minimal losses, they should be taking them if they're not I'm honestly appalled. @Matrim's Dice I can only see...If we assuming that James/Danex or are E/E (which...they already seem, so interested in seeing if...well...if Orlok ever gets caught up... :P. What he thinks on that) and that James came up with this theory to clear himself.
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