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Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

As an aside, all, I am desperately trying to catch up on the past cycles - does anyone have a vote count for this cycle, so that I don't have to jump way ahead in my read through?

I believe it’s just like 8 votes on lotus and nothing else.

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1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

As an aside, all, I am desperately trying to catch up on the past cycles - does anyone have a vote count for this cycle, so that I don't have to jump way ahead in my read through?

Lotus (9): Matrim's Dice, Gears, Breaker, The Unknown Order, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Gears (1): Lotus

Ask and you shall receive.

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1 minute ago, Dannex said:

I believe it’s just like 8 votes on lotus and nothing else.

 

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Lotus (9): Matrim's Dice, Gears, Breaker, The Unknown Order, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Gears (1): Lotus

Ask and you shall receive.

Thanks both. Good to know there isn't that much time pressure then to catch up before a contended lynch...

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13 minutes ago, Gears said:

Matrim [who seems to be following Illwei, may be hiding]

I’m not following, just agreeing. Most of the time. Like, I’m the only one considering a WGG anymore :P And I think voting Quinn was controversial when I first suggested it.

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Ilyanna stood outside the hall's tent, waiting for her Aes Sedai. There was quite a crowd of warders out here, all standing silently. 

A few of the warders knew that she was female, but they kept it quiet. It would be no use to loose a god warder just because they were a women. They were good people, the other warders.

The Aes Sedai began to emerge from the hall and Ilyanna found Burnt in the crowd, coming to her side. "Anything interesting?" she asked quietly as the two of them began to move through the night towards their tent.

"Not particularly." Burnt said, although Ilyanna could sense she was hiding something through her warder bond.

It was probably just some Aes Sedai nonsense.

When she had been younger she had dreamed of being a Aes Sedai, but she didn't have the gift to channel. Burnt had found her though and made her a warder. She appreciated that greatly.

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4 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Ilyanna stood outside the hall's tent, waiting for her Aes Sedai. There was quite a crowd of warders out here, all standing silently. 

A few of the warders knew that she was female, but they kept it quiet. It would be no use to loose a god warder just because they were a women. They were good people, the other warders.

The Aes Sedai began to emerge from the hall and Ilyanna found Burnt in the crowd, coming to her side. "Anything interesting?" she asked quietly as the two of them began to move through the night towards their tent.

"Not particularly." Burnt said, although Ilyanna could sense she was hiding something through her warder bond.

It was probably just some Aes Sedai nonsense.

When she had been younger she had dreamed of being a Aes Sedai, but she didn't have the gift to channel. Burnt had found her though and made her a warder. She appreciated that greatly.

Can we get some reads? :P 

Good RP though :thumbs-up:

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Village-y

Illwei-Has been extremely helpful, active and very village-y

Burnt Spaghetti-How can I not put my Aes Sedai in here

James Brafin-Seems to be very involved and is a newer player, so also giving benefit of the doubt

Null

The unknown order-hasn't been posting a whole lot

Breaker-I haven't played with them before, seems to be following whatever gears does

Books-? null

Devotary-hasn't been super active but thats normal for them

Orlock-new to the round, (hey Orlock!)

Elim-y

Gears-tunneling on Dannex

Condensation-just not getting good vibes,

Dannex-Two vote manias in a row just don't look good

 

 

 

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Ok, so I clearly haven't been able to catch up yet, but am getting there. With the GM's blessing to post my analysis in notes form, I give you the first four pages of D1:

Posts by game Cycle Posts by turn Player Key content Thoughts on content Alignment Indicative Vote Retractions
1 C1 1 TJ Shade Writeup        
2 C1 2 Matrim's Dice Asks if thoughts on distribution Doesn't give own opinions. Fairly safe conversation starter. Very mild evil    
3 C1 3 Archer Respinds to Matrim. Poke vote on Striker (known elim). Sensible but NAI game analysis. Safe distancing? Unlikely - moderate likelihood village. Moderate village StrikerEZ  
4 C1 4 Shard of Reading Known villager. Sensible NAI distribution analysis None Known villager    
5 C1 5 Liranil Known villager. NAI NAI NAI    
6 C1 6 Quinn0928 Known elim. Suggests potential elim warder for Green Ajah. Suggests 5 elims as Green Ajah. Plausible distribution. Strong chance of IKYK. Known elim    
7 C1 7 James Brafin Suggests four eliminators. Misinterprets first writeup Confusion re first writeup feels very genuine - hard clear village for me. Village    
8 C1 8 Quinn0928 Clears up James' misconception NAI NAI    
9 C1 9 James Brafin Acknowledges misconception NAI NAI    
10 C1 10 The Unknown Order Also clears up James' misconception NAI NAI    
11 C1 11 Quinn0928 Asks James if first game Kindness feels genuine. Unlikely same team. Known elim    
12 C1 12 James Brafin First game on this site Remember James has offsite experience NAI    
13 C1 13 Lotus NAI NAI NAI    
14 C1 14 Matrim's Dice Agrees publicly with Quinn re village vig. Assumes five eliminators. Unsure. Number of elims not a valuable day one discussion topic. Unsure    
15 C1 15 Illwei Votes Condensation. Jokes about being an eliminator. Goes through roles. Expects three kills a cycle. Points out that overestimating elims a way to seem more village. Joke votes on Quinn (eliminator). Returns vote to Condensation. OOG reason for vote on Condensation? Very strong familiarity with Quinn. Sensible inclusion of warders in distro analysis. Agree with their point re overestimation for town read purposes. Mild village Condensation  
16 C1 16 Dannex Wants Green Ajah to claim. Wants them mechanically confirmed, with yellow ajah protection. Doesn't want the green ajah to use their kill frequently. Suggests one black ajah vote manip. Do not like suggestion of green ajah claiming. Suspect evil, with black ajah having a yellow ajah member likely. Moderate evil    
17 C1 17 Shard of Reading Points out no PMs except between Aes Sedai and their warders Thanks Shard! Perhaps revise Dannex assessment. Known villager    
18 C1 18 Illwei Suggests vig kill be trigger happy. Jokes about conferrign with elim team. Mild village from encouragement of vig. Mild village    
19 C1 19 Quinn0928 Asks Illwei to spell name correctly. Distancing? Unlikely, I think. Known elim    
20 C1 20 Condensation Complains about speed of the game. Gut reads Illwei as trustworthy. Votes on Burnt. Tell me about it... Why village read from post? More likely that elims make faster gut reads in my experience. Unsure Burnt Spaghetti  
21 C1 21 Matrim's Dice Revises assessment of elim numbers given warder. "Hopes" green ajah "good". Suggests unlikely vig kills accurate Good unhelpful word in context. Assume it means accurate. Discourages vig killing. Mild evil as such. Mild evil    
22 C1 22 Quinn0928 Suggests Matrim pocketing Condensation Probably player familiarity Known elim    
23 C1 23 Illwei Votes on Quinn as joke in response to name post. Further familiarity. Likely NAI - possibly mild village as slightly less likely on same team Mild village Quinn  
24 C1 24 Quinn0928 Says busy so only making short posts NAI NAI    
25 C1 25 Matrim's Dice Complains re ever changing votes. NAI NAI    
26 C1 26 Quinn0928 Says they're procrastinating. NAI NAI    
27 C1 27 Illwei Jokes about Green claiming. Says no notes in QF - just point and shoot. I should probably listen to this advice... NAI    
28 C1 28 TJ Shade Clarifies absolutely no non-Warder/Aes Sedai PMs. GM Reeks of evil.    
29 C1 29 Ashbringer Suggets players claim to their warders and communicate with them. Communicating always sensible, practicing PM safety. Known villager    
30 C1 30 Quinn0928 Jokes about Illwei being Green Ajah. Distancing? Known elim    
31 C1 31 Devotary of Spontaneity States white ajah useful to the elims. Says lots of protection likely - so possibly larger than standard team. Doubts two village yellow ajah so continuous protection can't be arranged. Makes sensible points. Possible village lean due to warning re yellow ajah Mild village    
32 C1 32 Quinn0928 Clarifies that warders know their Aes Sedai's Ajah. NAI Known elim    
33 C1 33 Ashbringer Notes no roleblocks in game. NAI Known villager    
34 C1 34 Matrim's Dice Suggests not everyone may have a role NAI NAI    
35 C1 35 Quinn0928 Suggests red ajah may not have warders for thematic reasons Possible? Known elim    
36 C1 36 Illwei Alignment reads based on jokes? Difficult to know what is meant and what isn't. Reiterates their vote on Quinn as a joke. Largely unhelpful. Unsure if playstyle or obfuscating Very mild evil    
37 C1 37 Quinn0928 Clear familiarity with Illwei Unsure Known elim    
38 C1 38 Condensation Says already far behind on the game. Feels like immediate voting not necessarily the norm. You think *you* are behind? NAI    
39 C1 39 Dannex Wants vanilla roles to claim. Says they're expendable because vanilla. Disagree vehemently. Most important role in the game is your mind and analysis. Not to mention vanilla claims narrow down elim targets. Moderate evil.    
40 C1 40 Matrim's Dice Points out vanilla claims narrow field for elims. Agree. Basic but sensible point. Mild village.    
41 C1 41 Dannex Says one vanilla claiming worth it for village What possible advantage does it convey to the village? Mild evil    
42 C1 42 Quinn0928 Says it should be up to discretion of vanillas to reveal themselves. Promoting poor advice Known evil    
43 C1 43 Illwei Points out uselessness of knowing whether we have vanilla roles. Says Dannex always has controversial opinions. Useful to know re Dannex. Mild village    
44 C1 44 Lotus Says QFs move fast This one faster than most. NAI    
45 C1 45 Dannex Jokes NAI NAI    
46 C1 46 Quinn0928 Suggests elims may want to kill vanillas as definitely not protected Fair point. Known elim    
47 C1 47 Dannex Votes Illwei. Suggests lynching a vanilla best possible mislynch. Still a mislynch (and misses that he could be lying but not elim). Still doesn't explain advantage of knowing whether they're in the game. Moderate evil Illwei  
48 C1 48 TJ Shade GMs as a rule are evil. As before. Confirmed Shai'tan    
49 C1 49 Illwei Says they wouldn't kill a vanilla if evil. Suggests claimed vanilla likely a warder. Has (joke)claimed vanilla. Warder? Mild village    
50 C1 50 Quinn0928 Says Illwei could be troll villager. Suggests vanilla less likely to be protected or watched. Conversation on hypothetical vanillas is completely useless to the village. Known elim    
51 C1 51 Gears Ability analysis. Says not to trust bonded. RP. NAI NAI    
52 C1 52 Illwei Calls out Dannex's logic. Says they recall Dannex being against D1 lynches. Doesn't vote on Dannex - why not? Mild evil    
53 C1 53 Quinn0928 Says that value in game has much more to do with thread than roles. Agree. Known elim    
54 C1 54 Matrim's Dice Says Dannex's plan a bad idea and that we should vote on suspicion. Votes on Dannex. Agree with this wholeheartedly. Moderate village Dannex  
55 C1 55 Dannex Still treats knowing of vanillas as useful info - doesn't justify why. Feels like they are missing a major step in their logic. Mild evil    
56 C1 56 Illwei Jokes about trolling NAI NAI    
57 C1 57 Dannex Says trolling not a factor in whether they vote on someone or not. Trolling can completely change meaning of what is written Mild evil    
58 C1 58 Shard of Reading Against killing Illwei. Gut read and vote on Dannex. Says only an hour into C1, Dannex pushing hard for kill on minimal info. Oh good lord. Is it really only an hour into C1... Agree with gut read on Dannex. Known villager    
59 C1 59 Lotus Doesn't like Dannex being aggressive Could be a playstyle thing NAI    
60 C1 60 Dannex Says they aren't pushing hard for a kill Reads to me like they are. NAI    
61 C1 61 Matrim's Dice Clarifies that lynching for suspicions better than for role info Obvious point NAI    
62 C1 62 Quinn0928 D1 votes always low reasoning. Illwei often a good early lynch for elim team. Defence of Dannex with some distancing Known evil    
63 C1 63 Condensation Votes on Dannex, retracts on Burnt Fair vote, revisit dependant on Dannex alignment. Mild village Dannex Burnt Spaghetti
64 C1 64 Dannex Says difficult to have suspicions on D1. Says push on them suspicious, as they just poke voted Illwei. Real attempt to backtrack - their vote is anything but a pokevote. Moderate evil.    
65 C1 65 Shard of Reading Says that their interpretation of Dannex's actions are a push to kill Illwei. Valid interpretation - I agree. Known villager    
66 C1 66 Dannex Confrontational response. Defensive - feels unnatural response Mild evil    
67 C1 67 Matrim's Dice Asks that we avoid D1 lynch discussion again. Doesn't like people following their votes. Tryign to stall Dannex train? DOesn't feel too much like it. Unsure    
68 C1 68 Illwei Now claims Warden. Doesn't think behaviour is elim nature for him. Doesn't see Dannex being pushy either. Suspicious of Shard of Reading for voting for Dannex. Also suspicious of Condensation. Disagree with suspicion of those suspicious of Dannex. Mild evil    
69 C1 69 Matrim's Dice Retracts Dannex, votes Condensation Why? Mild evil Condensation Dannex
70 C1 70 Dannex Suggests Condensation and Reading top elim reads. Will vote on them if Illwei retracts vanilla claim. Why *still* insistent on this vanilla claim? Reading now confirmed villager. Condensation voting on them. Feels very reactionary. Moderate evil.    
71 C1 71 Condensation Says Dannex vote still makes sense to them. Isn't pressured off Dannex. Moderate village    
72 C1 72 Shard of Reading Clarifies feelings re Dannex Fair enough Known villager    
73 C1 73 Illwei Questions apparent change in Condensation opinions on D1 voting If they've been called out for it each time previously, surely changing their mind is likely or nautral? NAI    
74 C1 74 Quinn0928 Doesn't fault Condensation for changing playstyle. Agree NAI    
75 C1 75 Matrim's Dice Doesn't want D1 lynch discussion. Is voting Condensation for where the vote landed, not the vote. Disagree that vote target poor _ had I been playing I'd likely have joined vote on Dannex. Mild evil    
76 C1 76 Condensation Says they are doing an introspection class - reason for change in playstyle. Plausible. If so good for them. NAI    
77 C1 77 Ashbringer Jokes? about their own D1 voting history and being killed Don't know context, probably joke NAI    
78 C1 78 Shard of Reading Says they are talking of Dannex's surety as why they are voting for them, not the fact it is a D1 vote. Very sensible Mild village    
79 C1 79 Quinn0928 Promises not to kill Ashbringer this game Joke NAI    
80 C1 80 Illwei Gives good explanation of Reading's point of view Agree Mild village    
81 C1 81 Condensation Says they historically had a hard time with decisiveness NAI NAI    
82 C1 82 Matrim's Dice Had misread Reading's intentions Fair NAI    
83 C1 83 Illwei Complains about speed of game. I have more than 1100 posts still to catch up on. You have it easy. NAI    
84 C1 84 TJ Shade Vote Count. Dripping with the True Power. Hail Shai'Tan    
85 C1 85 Quinn0928 Queries Illwei still voting on them Feels like oog friendship NAI    
86 C1 86 Illwei Retracts Quinn. Claims two warders. Claims Dannex and SoR as village reads. Retraction (and pokevote) seem driven by prior relationship NAI   Quinn
87 C1 87 Quinn0928 Asks to be added to Illwei village reads Joke NAI    
88 C1 88 Dannex Asks Illwei to respond to whether they are retracting vanilla claim Still cannot figure out Dannex's obsession with this vanilla claim Unsure    
89 C1 89 Shard of Reading Notes he finds the village reading of themselves and Dannex entertaining NAI NAI    
90 C1 90 Breaker Not quite sure what they're saying here Unsure Unsure    
91 C1 91 Illwei Says they never actually claimed vanilla. Explains to Breaker that they were recapping thread thus far. Sensible enough NAI    
92 C1 92 Quinn0928 Explains the discussion re vanillas to Breaker NAI NAI    
93 C1 93 Breaker Says they misquoted and were thrown off. NAI NAI    
94 C1 94 Shard of Reading Says pages 1 and 2 rules discussion NAI Confirmed villager    
95 C1 95 Illwei Smiles NAI NAI    
96 C1 96 Dannex Retracts Illwei. Most suspicious of Reading and Condensation. Consistent with prior stated posts. Unsure    
97 C1 97 Quinn0928 Says only Illwei can explain their trolling re claiming GM and IM as warders Or anyone else could... NAI    
98 C1 98 Breaker Screams NAI NAI    
99 C1 99 Quinn0928 Says they will be active this game It certainly seems so NAI    
100 C1 100 Matrim's Dice Explains but misunderstands Illwei's joke NAI NAI    
101 C1 101 Quinn0928 @s Illwei re Matrim saying we should ignore them Friendly jibing NAI    

From what I have read so far, and acknowledging there is much I haven't read, I am so far most suspicious of Dannex. I can't work out their apparent fixation with vanilla roles, and find it particularly odd that they want vanillas to claim. I also dislike their request in their first post for the Green Ajah to claim in PMs (although clearly impossible). I further note their request that the village vig kill doesn't use their ability frequently, which I see as elim-helpful. 

Beyond this, and again acknowledging that there are still 17 pages left in D1 for me to read, I note that one of the players suspicious of Dannex was killed D1.

My analysis is clearly still in an embryonic state, but I need to take a brief break from going through the thread, and think breaking my notes up may help others trying to read them.

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4 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Gears-tunneling on Dannex

Condensation-just not getting good vibes,

Dannex-Two vote manias in a row just don't look good

...You put Gears as elim for tunneling on another elim? :P 

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12 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

GM Reeks of evil

Finally! someone agrees! :P.

12 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I have more than 1100 posts still to catch up on. You have it easy.

;-;

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...You put Gears as elim for tunneling on another elim? :P 

Hm. I mean, that's something that I did in my last Elim game? :P. I felt much safer tunneling on an Elim because I knew they would...well...flip Elim :P.

Edited by Illwei
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Guest Breaker

OK, so, I like gambits, and I've got a weird idea. Not necessarily a suggestion; don't shrek me for theory. 

What if we have Burnt and Dannex refuse to report anything for this round's scans and the next one's? 

After that, nobody knows who was scanned and who wasn't. They can demand anyone reveal their role, and nobody can risk lying. That way, we can maybe know every person's role. Then we can make some guesses about distribution, we can let every scan be revealed every day. We can play with perfect information. If there's a vote manip we dislike, we'll know who both Greys are, which means it's too risky for an elim Grey to use their power to create ties or save elim.

They're both otherwise poor NK's -- yes, Dannex is still a poor NK, until you can persuade Gears and Orlok of their Vill-ness --, and the strategy neutralizes their advantage, if they're somehow elims, anyway. But I'm 60% sure Dannex is Vil, and Burnt had better be Vil or I'll be sad. So I think we can trust them. A Brown Elim is terrifying, anyway. 

This at least lets us plan a little like in an open PM game. 

I don't know if it's wise, but it's bold, and I wanted to hear what people thought of the idea

Thoughts? (Please don't hurt me)

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Alright guys, I seem to be having internet issues. If I'm unable to come on at the time of rollover, consider the cycle to be closed. Expect the new a little later. If I have no issues, then it'll be on time. 

Edited by TJ Shade
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3 minutes ago, Breaker said:

I don't know if it's wise, but it's bold, and I wanted to hear what people thought of the idea

Personally I think it's a bit too late for that :P. I mean- first of all, burnt is about to lose her powers because we're killing off Lotus. So she's not exactly going to be a high-priority kill in my opinion.

I just don't- I kinda just woke up so I probably don't be making sense, but I don't think that setup spec/mass claiming or anything is going to help solve the game.

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Guest Breaker
1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

Alright guys, I seem to be having internet issues. If I'm unable to come on at the time of rollover, consider the cycle to be closed. Expect the new a little later. If I have no issues, then it'll be on time. 

Thanks for the heads up!

Edit: 

 

Just now, Illwei said:

Personally I think it's a bit too late for that :P. I mean- first of all, burnt is about to lose her powers because we're killing off Lotus. So she's not exactly going to be a high-priority kill in my opinion.

Ignore me; I literally forgot about this. 

Edited by Breaker
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12 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Thoughts? (Please don't hurt me)

I vetted this in our PM, but I'll list some flaws. 1. Now the elims want to kill them, they won't have Warders, and we probably don't have another Yellow. Speaking of, we'd have to not X Lot, since Lot and Bubbles are bonded, and the only other candidate is Danex. However, if we can get it to work, go ahead. Maybe take Burnt's scan this cycle and Danex's for a while? Gears Somewhat Approved [TM]

Also, stop ninja'ing me.

Edited by Gears
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Guest Breaker
Just now, Gears said:

I vetted this in our PM, but I'll list some flaws. 1. Now the elims want to kill them, they won't have Warders, and we probably don't have another Yellow. Speaking of, we'd have to not X Lot, since Lot and Bubbles are bonded, and the only other candidate is Danex. However, if we can get it to work, go ahead. Maybe take Burnt's scan this cycle and Danex's for a while? Gears Approved [TM]

Also, stop ninja'ing me.

:ninja:

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14 minutes ago, Breaker said:

OK, so, I like gambits, and I've got a weird idea. Not necessarily a suggestion; don't shrek me for theory. 

What if we have Burnt and Dannex refuse to report anything for this round's scans and the next one's? 

After that, nobody knows who was scanned and who wasn't. They can demand anyone reveal their role, and nobody can risk lying. That way, we can maybe know every person's role. Then we can make some guesses about distribution, we can let every scan be revealed every day. We can play with perfect information. If there's a vote manip we dislike, we'll know who both Greys are, which means it's too risky for an elim Grey to use their power to create ties or save elim.

They're both otherwise poor NK's -- yes, Dannex is still a poor NK, until you can persuade Gears and Orlok of their Vill-ness --, and the strategy neutralizes their advantage, if they're somehow elims, anyway. But I'm 60% sure Dannex is Vil, and Burnt had better be Vil or I'll be sad. So I think we can trust them. A Brown Elim is terrifying, anyway. 

This at least lets us plan a little like in an open PM game. 

I don't know if it's wise, but it's bold, and I wanted to hear what people thought of the idea

Thoughts? (Please don't hurt me)

Just as an aside, I'm against any strategy that coerces players to act in a certain way, so on principle I don't like this suggestion that we force players to give up information.

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Guest Breaker
Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Just as an aside, I'm against any strategy that coerces players to act in a certain way, so on principle I don't like this suggestion that we force players to give up information.

Noted! I kinda viewed this as tricking people into it, not forcing, but I can see how it could feel bully-ish. Sorry! Important to find those lines. I'll be careful :)

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Aight, so I kinda expect to die, in all honesty. Might as well leave with something :P 

Keep in mind that if I'm killed, the elims targeted me consecutively. We did not see that with Connie, and if there is one (well, two, but we'll get to that soon) thing that I'd like y'all to remember is that a WGG is still possible. I don't want it to be completely discounted. If you get to the point where it's a close game, remember that.

The second thing I guess is to not exe Dannex. Like, I trust them. Orlok's vote was after reading 4 pages of D1, and at that point- yes, he looked sus. But we're over 40 pages after that. (Again, the caveat here is if it comes down to like, Illwei, Dannex, and Archer- then Dannex should go, but I honestly wouldn't do it before that point)

Trust my Aes Sedai. I kinda expect them to claim when I die. You'll see why :P 

Still sus of James for casually defending Lotus early this cycle. Don't automatically vil read them for earlier content, talented players are talented. :P

If Lotus is vil, above reads are not nearly as beneficial, of course. Not that I find vil!Lotus likely... but they haven't flipped yet. Take them how you will.

If I'm dead, farewell and good luck! If not, well, there isn't a single thing up there that I wouldn't say otherwise, except maybe the point about Connie- because if I'm not targeted consecutively, Connie not being either is a moot point. Hope to see y'all C5!

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