Burnt Spaghetti Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Thoughts/reads Spoiler Matrim - Warder. Has been attacked once (by Liranil). Insistent on the connie wgg idea. Had a bad gut read on lotus though. Soft village. No. Medium Village. NO. Strong village. Gears - Warder. Bonded to Breaker. Soft elim read Ashbringer- Faleast Rebel Aes Sedai [Blue Ajah] Breaker - Blue. Bonded to Gears. Village read. I'm honestly weirdly confident about this. Quinn0928 Black Ajah [Red Ajah] Lotus - Ilyanna Black Ajah [Warder] . Rip best warder. Archer - Neutral. village soft lean? Liranil Rebel Aes Sedai [Green Ajah] Shard of Reading Rebel Aes Sedai [Yellow Ajah] StrikerEZ - Star Black Ajah [White Ajah] Order - Warder. Bonded to James. No clue. James - Grey. Bonded to Order. Hasn't been sharing targets with Order?Villagish read. yeah hes village Burnt - Brown. Was bonded to Lotus. Scans: Illwei, matrim, James. Attempted books, but lost brown ability. Illwei - White - Village. I see no world in which she is evil. In early "kill these people first" lists she had both Lotus and Striker listed high in the order. Amongst other things in general shes just village imo. Dannex - Role twin (brown) - Village read. Like. HARD village read. Flyingbooks42 Rebel Aes Sedai [Red Ajah] Devotary- early lotus vote in the first lynch. neutralish. Connie- attacked by elims, matrim thinks wgg. Might be fine though? uncertain. villagish Kings_way/Orlok - Doing some good analysis catchupping. otherwise dunno Other random thoughts as i read things: - Dannex and James likely not both evil -Lotus put quinn and illwei as village, was unsure of danex but the noncommitment could be AI? Striker also listed Dannex as "dont know how to feel". Non commitment vibes with dannex as well. Later leant village and voted on ash for their dannex vote. Later swapped from lotus to Dannex though. Curious. If dannex was an elim and i village, this would be saving their warder and village brown and sacrificing their own Role. Youd think elims would want to prioritise losing their warder and crippling a village scanner more. Lotus voted Dannex as well. James removed a vote off lotus (THIS IS THE EARLIER LYNCH BTW just realised this wasnt clear. im like doing a full reread). Dannex votes lotus -Quinn voted gears - The greys moved the votes. At the end of the day though, two of our dead elims were voting dannex, getting it off of lotus. This reads well for Dannex. Additionally quinn, another dead elim, implied a possibility that the vote manip was evils protecting dannex. moving suspicion onto a villager. -Quinn was noncommittal regarding connie and WGG, could be but might not be. Cautioned against voting connie out for this reason. Interesting. -Quinn reads archer as village, had a bunch os sus on gears that she seemed to doubt?? -James points out Lotus we dont know if was missshrek- putting sus back on lotus, makes me feel more village read from them -Quinn continues to put sus on dannex a lot. At this point im pretty confident dannex is village. Gears joins in a little too hm. One thought i did have. Is it does make sense to me now why the elims were happy enough to let lotus go. listen, from my perspective, im villager. Think bout it. By losing lotus with no real fight, they were losing presumably one of their weaker roles, and taking out a village role scanner. of course they wouldn't fight it... As far as suspicions, I'm honestly a bit cautious of gears. they are the main player so far in my reread that keeps giving me off vibes given current game knowledge. Breaker take this as my vote towards not telling gears everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) Did everyone ignore me? I feel like everyone simply ignored my post. Like I'm a 'lost cause' or something. Please, I get you disagree, but at least consider what I said instead of pushing ahead with exeing Devo. That's what I don't understand. You say James must be good because he didn't save Quinn. Well, Devotary didn't save Quinn either. In fact, they actively manipped to get Quinn exed. James did nothing. Edited January 19, 2021 by Matrim's Dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: One thought i did have. Is it does make sense to me now why the elims were happy enough to let lotus go. listen, from my perspective, im villager. Think bout it. By losing lotus with no real fight, they were losing presumably one of their weaker roles, and taking out a village role scanner. of course they wouldn't fight it... As far as suspicions, I'm honestly a bit cautious of gears. they are the main player so far in my reread that keeps giving me off vibes given current game knowledge. Breaker take this as my vote towards not telling gears everything. I don’t necessarily feel the eliminators would give up one of their own to cripple a scanner, especially since Vil!Brown isn’t that strong, but your theory might make sense if the eliminators have a Grey, since that’s a role they really wouldn’t want outed by your scan. I remain skeptical, however; every remaining eliminator is their margin of error, as well as an advancement on their victory clock, since they need a majority. Elims are valuable. It is their exact tendency to protect one another, in line with this value, that has made them so vulnerable to us thus far, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Did everyone ignore me? I feel like everyone simply ignored my post. Like I'm a 'lost cause' or something. Please, I get you disagree, but at least consider what I said instead of pushing ahead with exeing Devo. That's what I don't understand. You say James must be good because he didn't save Quinn. Well, Devotary didn't save Quinn either. In fact, they actively manipped to get Quinn exed. James did nothing. You're just tunneling at this point for no good reason. You're looking for reasons for me to be Elim, when this is a situation where Occam's Razor applies. It's not even worth arguing at this point: If I tampered Quinn, it would have been clear that I was elim, but since I didn't tamper Quinn... it's also clear that I'm Elim? Come on. It's just confbias. It's not worth arguing with you at this point because you're exactly right; it's incredibly tinfoily, it assumes that the Elim team is playing three steps ahead of Town. I repeat this here, should we see no change I'm 100% willing to switch here and get shrekked when Devo does. And I will also repeat, when we both drop as village, please please please start questioning Dice and their motivations. We've gone beyond town!tunneling at this point. You're looking for reasons to get me shot. @Gears I am only marginally happier with Dannex than I am with Devo. If you can get others on board with the shot I'm down. Otherwise, I'm happier doing a double tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, James Brafin said: You're just tunneling at this point for no good reason. You're looking for reasons for me to be Elim, when this is a situation where Occam's Razor applies. It's not even worth arguing at this point: If I tampered Quinn, it would have been clear that I was elim, but since I didn't tamper Quinn... it's also clear that I'm Elim? Come on. It's just confbias. It's not worth arguing with you at this point because you're exactly right; it's incredibly tinfoily, it assumes that the Elim team is playing three steps ahead of Town. You’re right, and I’m frustrated by that because I can’t think of what else it could be. Everyone has a billion reasons to be village-read and I don’t know what to do. James Brafin The Unknown Order Their unreasoned jump on you doesn’t make sense to me. At least I had reasons. 4 minutes ago, James Brafin said: I repeat this here, should we see no change I'm 100% willing to switch here and get shrekked when Devo does. And I will also repeat, when we both drop as village, please please please start questioning Dice and their motivations. We've gone beyond town!tunneling at this point. You're looking for reasons to get me shot. Again, there is no situation where I’m evil. I was attacked. I pushed for both elim exes. I’m looking for reasons to shoot you because I don’t know where else to go. I can tinfoil whatever I want though, it’s not going to convince anyone. Just to be clear: The Devo exe makes zero sense assuming James is good for what he did with his actions. Devo did the same, but more so. I repeat. Zero. Sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Just to be clear: The Devo exe makes zero sense assuming James is good for what he did with his actions. Devo did the same, but more so. I repeat. Zero. Sense. I don't like the Devotary X either, but I've been countermanded. If you join the Danex vote, I can possibly negotiate with Kai. @Breaker. Operation: Pathfinder Survival is a go if you switch to Danex. 8 minutes ago, James Brafin said: @Gears I am only marginally happier with Dannex than I am with Devo. If you can get others on board with the shot I'm down. Otherwise, I'm happier doing a double tonight. Devotary is offline. Very disappointing. If Matrim is on board and you use your ability, we have enough votes. @Devotary of Spontaneity, if you get online before rollover, vote Danex to save yourself and/or get them X-ed please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Gears said: I don't like the Devotary X either, but I've been countermanded. If you join the Danex vote, I can possibly negotiate with Kai. @Breaker. Operation: Pathfinder Survival is a go if you switch to Danex. Devotary is offline. Very disappointing. If Matrim is on board and you use your ability, we have enough votes. @Devotary of Spontaneity, if you get online before rollover, vote Danex to save yourself and/or get them X-ed please. I’m not exeing Dannex either. That hasn’t changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: You’re right, and I’m frustrated by that because I can’t think of what else it could be. Everyone has a billion reasons to be village-read and I don’t know what to do. James Brafin The Unknown Order Their unreasoned jump on you doesn’t make sense to me. At least I had reasons. Again, there is no situation where I’m evil. I was attacked. I pushed for both elim exes. I’m looking for reasons to shoot you because I don’t know where else to go. I can tinfoil whatever I want though, it’s not going to convince anyone. Just to be clear: The Devo exe makes zero sense assuming James is good for what he did with his actions. Devo did the same, but more so. I repeat. Zero. Sense. Hmmm. I want to trust Order, but I don't know that I have a reason to now that you point it out. I really haven't seen anything quantitative from them all game. I'd... I'd be more okay with this than a lot of the others actually. Only problem is that it takes two cycles, which means a free kill tonight, unless y'all hit me too. Still, I'm willing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnt Spaghetti Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 31 minutes ago, Breaker said: I don’t necessarily feel the eliminators would give up one of their own to cripple a scanner, especially since Vil!Brown isn’t that strong, but your theory might make sense if the eliminators have a Grey, since that’s a role they really wouldn’t want outed by your scan. I remain skeptical, however; every remaining eliminator is their margin of error, as well as an advancement on their victory clock, since they need a majority. Elims are valuable. It is their exact tendency to protect one another, in line with this value, that has made them so vulnerable to us thus far, correct? I was more thinking along the lines of elims having the perspective of Lotus probably being a lost cause. Yes its good for them survive for numbers, but of all the black ajah we've seen so far, id say losing a warder is the least damaging thing for them. Its not ideal, but it at least hurts a villager on the way so, isn't a total loss. And looking back it wasnt a total without a fight thing given quinn and striker were voting away from lotus, and quinn was pushing suspicion onto dannex, away from lotus. So. I suppose saying they let lotus go is innacurate anyways. nvm me i tired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1. Debating internally on pursuit of double-Shrek plan. Would appreciate input from others. Not a big fan of division. 2. 2 votes to conceal scan from Gears. 1 more vote and I’ll conceal from Gear for this round. I’ll still announce my move and its results publicly next round, regardless. 3. Vote count, por favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: Thoughts/reads Hide contents Matrim - Warder. Has been attacked once (by Liranil). Insistent on the connie wgg idea. Had a bad gut read on lotus though. Soft village. No. Medium Village. NO. Strong village. Gears - Warder. Bonded to Breaker. Soft elim read Ashbringer- Faleast Rebel Aes Sedai [Blue Ajah] Breaker - Blue. Bonded to Gears. Village read. I'm honestly weirdly confident about this. Quinn0928 Black Ajah [Red Ajah] Lotus - Ilyanna Black Ajah [Warder] . Rip best warder. Archer - Neutral. village soft lean? Liranil Rebel Aes Sedai [Green Ajah] Shard of Reading Rebel Aes Sedai [Yellow Ajah] StrikerEZ - Star Black Ajah [White Ajah] Order - Warder. Bonded to James. No clue. James - Grey. Bonded to Order. Hasn't been sharing targets with Order?Villagish read. yeah hes village Burnt - Brown. Was bonded to Lotus. Scans: Illwei, matrim, James. Attempted books, but lost brown ability. Illwei - White - Village. I see no world in which she is evil. In early "kill these people first" lists she had both Lotus and Striker listed high in the order. Amongst other things in general shes just village imo. Dannex - Role twin (brown) - Village read. Like. HARD village read. Flyingbooks42 Rebel Aes Sedai [Red Ajah] Devotary- early lotus vote in the first lynch. neutralish. Connie- attacked by elims, matrim thinks wgg. Might be fine though? uncertain. villagish Kings_way/Orlok - Doing some good analysis catchupping. otherwise dunno Other random thoughts as i read things: - Dannex and James likely not both evil -Lotus put quinn and illwei as village, was unsure of danex but the noncommitment could be AI? Striker also listed Dannex as "dont know how to feel". Non commitment vibes with dannex as well. Later leant village and voted on ash for their dannex vote. Later swapped from lotus to Dannex though. Curious. If dannex was an elim and i village, this would be saving their warder and village brown and sacrificing their own Role. Youd think elims would want to prioritise losing their warder and crippling a village scanner more. Lotus voted Dannex as well. James removed a vote off lotus (THIS IS THE EARLIER LYNCH BTW just realised this wasnt clear. im like doing a full reread). Dannex votes lotus -Quinn voted gears - The greys moved the votes. At the end of the day though, two of our dead elims were voting dannex, getting it off of lotus. This reads well for Dannex. Additionally quinn, another dead elim, implied a possibility that the vote manip was evils protecting dannex. moving suspicion onto a villager. -Quinn was noncommittal regarding connie and WGG, could be but might not be. Cautioned against voting connie out for this reason. Interesting. -Quinn reads archer as village, had a bunch os sus on gears that she seemed to doubt?? -James points out Lotus we dont know if was missshrek- putting sus back on lotus, makes me feel more village read from them -Quinn continues to put sus on dannex a lot. At this point im pretty confident dannex is village. Gears joins in a little too hm. One thought i did have. Is it does make sense to me now why the elims were happy enough to let lotus go. listen, from my perspective, im villager. Think bout it. By losing lotus with no real fight, they were losing presumably one of their weaker roles, and taking out a village role scanner. of course they wouldn't fight it... As far as suspicions, I'm honestly a bit cautious of gears. they are the main player so far in my reread that keeps giving me off vibes given current game knowledge. Breaker take this as my vote towards not telling gears everything. I am more certain about Burnt now. The only Elim read in this entire list is Gears, everything else is null-village. Seems like classic noncommittal Elim reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Hey everyone’s been saying that Devo is a bad idea why are people still voting Devo Pick Burnt or Order. Those are the two shreks that make some sense. @TJ Shade can I have a vote count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnt Spaghetti Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dannex said: I am more certain about Burnt now. The only Elim read in this entire list is Gears, everything else is null-village. Seems like classic noncommittal Elim reads. I mean. to be fair there could yknow be only one more elim maybe two but like at the end of the day it makes sense for there to be like a lot of villagers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|TJ| Posted January 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Devotary of Spontaneity (5): Gears, Breaker, Archer, James Brafin, Illwei Gears (1): Devotary of Spontaneity The Unknown Order (1): Matrim's Dice James Brafin (1): The Unknown Order Burnt Spaghetti (1): Dannex This should be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: I mean. to be fair there could yknow be only one more elim maybe two but like at the end of the day it makes sense for there to be like a lot of villagers True, but if there are 2 Elims left, I’d probably have a pool of 3-4 suspects, I wouldn’t only have 2 Elim reads. Unrelated, but @James Brafin and @Illwei, why are you guys voting Devo? I was under the assumption that you both read me as village. So if I’m village, the conclusion was that both Greys must also be village, right? And Devo is Grey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 @Breaker, @James Brafin, (and @Devotary of Spontaneity, if you get online in time), if we switch to Danex and Jam uses his magic powers, we can get the Danex X. If you are opposed, then we can remain. I would just prefer the Danex X because Devotary proves nothing about anyone. I am genuinely miffed right now because no one seems to be listening to my arguments about why a Danex X does the same things as the double X but better. Not very miffed, but a little miffed. A single Grey X is useless because it dictates nothing about the other Grey so you'd have to actually go X the other Grey and it just wastes a cycle and a death. The better single X method is to X Danex. If we're going to kill one person, X Danex. We could also do the double X, but I am staunchly opposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) Yes, I thought we were doing a double to end things. I was getting ready to switch when I saw this post actually. Devo Dannex (To be clear this is as I am agreeing with Gears that the single is better than the double) 4 minutes ago, Dannex said: True, but if there are 2 Elims left, I’d probably have a pool of 3-4 suspects, I wouldn’t only have 2 Elim reads. Unrelated, but @James Brafin and @Illwei, why are you guys voting Devo? I was under the assumption that you both read me as village. So if I’m village, the conclusion was that both Greys must also be village, right? And Devo is Grey? I was hoping to double with Devo and I to clear you once and for all, but Gears makes a strong point -- if we all agree that Dannex+Devo or Burnt are mechanically the only two options, then this tells us pretty simply how we move forward while minimizing town kills Edited January 19, 2021 by James Brafin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, James Brafin said: Yes, I thought we were doing a double to end things. I was getting ready to switch when I saw this post actually. Devo Dannex Why?????? I legitimately don’t understand why you’re voting Dannex. After reading him vil. After manipping his survival. Even if it ‘proves’ things about the manippers, you, as one of them, already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) @Breaker, reverse the bargain. Operation: Pathfinder Survival takes precedence. Devotary Danex. Jam, use your magic powers. Edited January 19, 2021 by Gears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Fine. Devotary Dannex I don’t want Dannex gone, but this preserves good play with Gears. And, I suppose, it helps us examine the Greys. ugh. This feels like an internal war again. I was hoping this was an easy round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) Well, can we at least tie myself with Burnt then? Edited January 19, 2021 by Dannex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Brafin Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Dannex said: Well, can we at least tie myself with Burnt then? Does anyone see harm in this? Because I don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnt Spaghetti Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 I don't like this I'm feeling inclined to do a vote But feel bad potentially screwing with the plans of those I read village because I mess up a lynch because I've not paid attention to things. But I don't get this. If we think dannex is village why is it necessary to kill him? Can we not achieve the same but acting on assumption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Breaker Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Burnt is not a permitted kill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Breaker said: Burnt is not a permitted kill. Dannex is not a permitted kill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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