Quick Fix 50: Return to Tar Valon

[Guest Breaker]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I hope Orlok catches up soon :P.

I need a hero. 

Edit: 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Breaker

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I did misremember when Matrim was attacked, it was the cycle before Lotus died.

22 minutes ago, Gears said:

I give up on you. I have given many reasons over many cycles for Danex's guilt. People said Burnt's flip would prove Danex's alignment. We have established time and time again that it was either Danex or Burnt. And now that the evidence points to Danex, you deny it?

If we're going to go there can't possibly be two village browns we might as well go there can't possibly be two village blues.

Gears is the Warder of the two, so Breaker works better. Although an E/E pair could easily be lying about that.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Gears is the Warder of the two, so Breaker works better. Although an E/E pair could easily be lying about that.

Yeah, that's true. Gears, Breaker. They're not lying about that, Archer scanned Gears awhile back and Gears is a Warder.

Hmm. Something doesn't feel right about this though. The dead doc definitely is laughing :P.

[Guest Breaker]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I did misremember when Matrim was attacked, it was the cycle before Lotus died.

If we're going to go there can't possibly be two village browns we might as well go there can't possibly be two village blues.

Gears is the Warder of the two, so Breaker works better. Although an E/E pair could easily be lying about that.

Ignoring the threat upon my life, because I'm taking a break from that for a few hours, there could definitely be two Village Blues and Browns. Who's to say the elims didn't have 2 Warders, like we originally expected? I'm like 70% sure we were public about our initial suspicion of 1 internal Aes Sedai/Warder Bond, one lone Aes Sedai, one externally bonded Warder. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm. Something doesn't feel right about this though. The dead doc definitely is laughing :P.

It's either Dannex with completely irrational elim behavior, someone with Gears/Breaker and quite possibly both given how tightly in lockstep they are, or people who have been completely uninvolved like Order and King's Way/Orlok.

5 minutes ago, Breaker said:

there could definitely be two Village Blues and Browns. Who's to say the elims didn't have 2 Warders, like we originally expected?

There's no inherent reason the village can't have two browns or two blues. I'm more suspicious of Gears but he won't die because he's a Warder. I do think the elims have two Warders, Lotus and Gears.

[Guest Breaker]

Before we get into a building faction war of you, Matrim, and Archer stacking me or Gears, and James, Gears, and, forcibly, me, stacking you, can we investigate a while? You and James cancel one another out, so everyone else is left to pick a side or watch a double kill, potentially taking us to five villagers and two elims, in the worst case scenario. We would lose that scenario. Therefore, I'd like to ask that we briefly de-escalate, while, once again, a few of us try to take a few hours off.

We cool?

[Archer he/him]

Brick began researching how cost-effective group funerals were. Someone need to bury all these bodies, they were starting to stink. 

Hey, I know we're all frustrated because we should have won by now. But we still have a comfortable lead, so there's no need to give up hope yet.

So long as the Greys remain alive, they will continue to add an element of unpredictability to our votes. I believe the elim team has one Grey on it. Both of them appear to be fans of Dannex. With that kind of firepower protecting Dannex, an exe on them will not go through.

Instead, as has been previously suggested, I propose we force a tie this round on the two Greys. Three non-Greys should vote on each of them, and the Greys should vote for each other. The Greys should also move one of the remaining null votes each onto each other. To ensure the tie remains intact, anyone who moves their vote within an hour of rollover should be warned that it’s HIGHLY suspicious. If, like me, you believe one of them is an elim, you should want the guaranteed elim-kill, even at the price of a villager. If you believe they are both innocent, you should recognize the reality that the uncertainty they cause hurts more than their vote movement helps.  

Thoughts? If we can make this work, I'll kick things off with a Devotary vote. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

15 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Before we get into a building faction war of you, Matrim, and Archer stacking me or Gears, and James, Gears, and, forcibly, me, stacking you, can we investigate a while? You and James cancel one another out, so everyone else is left to pick a side or watch a double kill, potentially taking us to five villagers and two elims, in the worst case scenario. We would lose that scenario. Therefore, I'd like to ask that we briefly de-escalate, while, once again, a few of us try to take a few hours off.

We cool?

There's no reason we would lose 5-2, nor do I see why it would end up in a double kill between you and me, but I don't need to vote until the end, so sure. Breaker. We'll all come back later to cast votes based on something other than murdering people purely for their role.

[Mat he/him]

28 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Ignoring the threat upon my life, because I'm taking a break from that for a few hours, there could definitely be two Village Blues and Browns. Who's to say the elims didn't have 2 Warders, like we originally expected? I'm like 70% sure we were public about our initial suspicion of 1 internal Aes Sedai/Warder Bond, one lone Aes Sedai, one externally bonded Warder. 

What would that make the team, though?

1 lone Aes Sedai - Quinn or Striker.

1 externally bonded Warder - Lotus

1 internal Aes Sedai/Warder bond - Quinn or Striker, and who? Someone we haven't even thought of? There legitimately are not enough Warders to make this possible. We've had enough role reveals that we know who all the Warders are. The only ones still alive are me, Connie, Order, and Gears. Me and Archer are both village, pretty darn provably. Connie is not an e/e pair, Illwei flipped village. Order and James' relationship is strange, and then you and Gears.

So if there is an e/e Aes Sedai/Warder, it has to be either you and Gears or Order and James. And James has defended enough that I read him as tentative vil.

17 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Before we get into a building faction war of you, Matrim, and Archer stacking me or Gears, and James, Gears, and, forcibly, me, stacking you, can we investigate a while? You and James cancel one another out, so everyone else is left to pick a side or watch a double kill, potentially taking us to five villagers and two elims, in the worst case scenario. We would lose that scenario. Therefore, I'd like to ask that we briefly de-escalate, while, once again, a few of us try to take a few hours off.

We cool?

We cool  I hope no tensions are raised. But I still am gonna try to solve this.

---

Aight, I'm gonna try to work through this.

The way I see it, the remaining elims are one of two possibilities.

• Just One Warder. This is because, with two Warders on the team, it effectively creates extra lives. I don't see a five person, two warder team happening, but a four person, two warder seems more reasonable.
• Just Two Aes Sedai. This is because if there are two elims alive, the previous reasoning doesn't allow for a Warder. Five person, one warder is a team I find possible.

Let's work through the options.

Just one Warder:

If the remaining elim is a Warder, it has to be one of Me, Connie, Gears, or Order.

• Me: I am not evil. Reasoning in a previous post, if it isn't clear already
• Connie: I realize that a WGG is unlikely. Exe if it's down to the wire, and not before that.
• Gears: Out of everyone here, I find Gears the most likely lone elim Warder remaining. That's because of
• Order: because of Order. I don't see elim!Order voting James without a prod from a teammate, and as such, Order is less likely.

Just two Aes Sedai:

If there are two Aes Sedai remaining, it has to be two of Archer, Devotary, James, Breaker, Orlok, or Dannex.

• Archer: My Aes Sedai, a Red, of such I doubt the elims would have two of. Very unlikely.
• Devotary: A complicated one. I have a gut reaction evil to their vote which is really confusing because I voted alongside them. Would be evil with... James? Dannex?
• James: I'm still uber-paranoid, but Ockham's Razor. Confused at who they're pushing though, so I'd kill James before Dannex, Archer, and maybe Orlok. If evil, would be on a team with... Breaker? And an outside chance of Devotary
• Breaker: I don't see it, to be honest. I don't know why I was voting them. Breaker. If evil though, probably with Dannex.
• Orlok: Hard to say since they haven't caught up yet, but based on the distribution predictions they're either Yellow or White, both roles I would put in a villager's hands. Unlikely.
• Dannex: *Sigh* here's the hard one. I really want to reread their posts and relook at all the connections, but I wearily stand by my village read of them. If they are evil, it's probably with Devotary or Breaker.

I'd like to hear thoughts on this, as I'm pretty confident after another look at the distribution that the elims don't have an e/e bond pair still alive. As I'm unsure which of the comps is left, as it stands now I'd like to tie it between Devotary and Gears. Though maybe not a tie, because Devo can manip away :/

I gtg now. Sorry if there are typos, I won't be correcting them :P.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Btw, I was ninja'd by both Archer and Devo

[Guest Breaker]

I'm still not sure on a tie, but Devotary can't break them if James also suppresses Devotary. They'd be unable to escape a tie.

[Gears]

I would be willing to vote Devotary since no one seems to be willing to vote Danex. I suspect them for the deflection at the top of this cycle. I am going offline for several hours for both obligations and my own frustrations with this game. Goodbye.

[Guest Breaker]

I genuinely want a break (no pun intended) but I pathologically respond to notifications. I really do wanna stop thinking about who I do and don't sus, and how I would defend myself if sussed, though, for a few hours. 

[James Brafin he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What would that make the team, though?

1 lone Aes Sedai - Quinn or Striker.

1 externally bonded Warder - Lotus

1 internal Aes Sedai/Warder bond - Quinn or Striker, and who? Someone we haven't even thought of? There legitimately are not enough Warders to make this possible. We've had enough role reveals that we know who all the Warders are. The only ones still alive are me, Connie, Order, and Gears. Me and Archer are both village, pretty darn provably. Connie is not an e/e pair, Illwei flipped village. Order and James' relationship is strange, and then you and Gears.

So if there is an e/e Aes Sedai/Warder, it has to be either you and Gears or Order and James. And James has defended enough that I read him as tentative vil.

We cool  I hope no tensions are raised. But I still am gonna try to solve this.

---

Aight, I'm gonna try to work through this.

The way I see it, the remaining elims are one of two possibilities.

• Just One Warder. This is because, with two Warders on the team, it effectively creates extra lives. I don't see a five person, two warder team happening, but a four person, two warder seems more reasonable.
• Just Two Aes Sedai. This is because if there are two elims alive, the previous reasoning doesn't allow for a Warder. Five person, one warder is a team I find possible.

Let's work through the options.

Just one Warder:

If the remaining elim is a Warder, it has to be one of Me, Connie, Gears, or Order.

• Me: I am not evil. Reasoning in a previous post, if it isn't clear already
• Connie: I realize that a WGG is unlikely. Exe if it's down to the wire, and not before that.
• Gears: Out of everyone here, I find Gears the most likely lone elim Warder remaining. That's because of
• Order: because of Order. I don't see elim!Order voting James without a prod from a teammate, and as such, Order is less likely.

Just two Aes Sedai:

If there are two Aes Sedai remaining, it has to be two of Archer, Devotary, James, Breaker, Orlok, or Dannex.

• Archer: My Aes Sedai, a Red, of such I doubt the elims would have two of. Very unlikely.
• Devotary: A complicated one. I have a gut reaction evil to their vote which is really confusing because I voted alongside them. Would be evil with... James? Dannex?
• James: I'm still uber-paranoid, but Ockham's Razor. Confused at who they're pushing though, so I'd kill James before Dannex, Archer, and maybe Orlok. If evil, would be on a team with... Breaker? And an outside chance of Devotary
• Breaker: I don't see it, to be honest. I don't know why I was voting them. Breaker. If evil though, probably with Dannex.
• Orlok: Hard to say since they haven't caught up yet, but based on the distribution predictions they're either Yellow or White, both roles I would put in a villager's hands. Unlikely.
• Dannex: *Sigh* here's the hard one. I really want to reread their posts and relook at all the connections, but I wearily stand by my village read of them. If they are evil, it's probably with Devotary or Breaker.

I'd like to hear thoughts on this, as I'm pretty confident after another look at the distribution that the elims don't have an e/e bond pair still alive. As I'm unsure which of the comps is left, as it stands now I'd like to tie it between Devotary and Gears. Though maybe not a tie, because Devo can manip away :/

I gtg now. Sorry if there are typos, I won't be correcting them :P.

This was...

Surprisingly well-thought out, tbh. I don't think this comes from Elims, tbh. I'll agree to an uneasy truce for now.

Devo seems fine to me, though Gears is going to be hard to hit with two lives. If Devo flips Elim though, I'm going to go after Dannex so hard. Not even joking. Like a truck.

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

This was...

Surprisingly well-thought out, tbh. I don't think this comes from Elims, tbh. I'll agree to an uneasy truce for now.

Devo seems fine to me, though Gears is going to be hard to hit with two lives. If Devo flips Elim though, I'm going to go after Dannex so hard. Not even joking. Like a truck.

Uneasy truce it is  May we solve this thing well.

Yeah, if Devo flips elim I’d be okay with clearing all Warders. If they flip vil... idk. And... yeah, Dannex wouldn’t look to good after an elim flip. I might not support you but I won’t try to stop you at that point. 

[dannnex male]

2 hours ago, Gears said:

I would be willing to vote Devotary since no one seems to be willing to vote Danex. I suspect them for the deflection at the top of this cycle. I am going offline for several hours for both obligations and my own frustrations with this game. Goodbye.

Why would you vote Devo and not me? If (when) Devo flips vil, y’all will assume the Elim Grey is James, and then waste another cycle voting them. If we vote me, we can clear both of them.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Dannex

[Gears]

Just now, Dannex said:

Why would you vote Devo and not me? If (when) Devo flips vil, y’all will assume the Elim Grey is James, and then waste another cycle saving them. If we vote me, we can clear both of them.

I answered in the part you quoted. No one wants to vote you, so I can't get a majority on you. Breaker and I are a unit, but the Greys are opposed, Jam suspects Devo over you, Archer thinks the Danex X is nonviable because the Greys are opposed, and Matrim thinks you're village for some reason. However, the opposed are willing to vote Devotary [excluding Devotary themself, of course]. 

Also, completely unrelated tangent: I feel somewhat miffed that despite the evidence I've outlined in previous cycles, no one actually seems to be paying Danex any mind. Was my logic unsound? Did I make a flawed argument? No one even engaged my arguments, merely brushed them aside. I feel somewhat ignored. This may be unfounded and I'm just blatantly misremembering the facts, but these are my emotions as they stand. My apologies if I have pushed aside reality in favour of stewing in angst and a woe is me mentality. After a break, my emotions are less prevalent, so I think it is safe to engage in discourse now. 

[James Brafin he/him]

33 minutes ago, Gears said:

I answered in the part you quoted. No one wants to vote you, so I can't get a majority on you. Breaker and I are a unit, but the Greys are opposed, Jam suspects Devo over you, Archer thinks the Danex X is nonviable because the Greys are opposed, and Matrim thinks you're village for some reason. However, the opposed are willing to vote Devotary [excluding Devotary themself, of course]. 

Also, completely unrelated tangent: I feel somewhat miffed that despite the evidence I've outlined in previous cycles, no one actually seems to be paying Danex any mind. Was my logic unsound? Did I make a flawed argument? No one even engaged my arguments, merely brushed them aside. I feel somewhat ignored. This may be unfounded and I'm just blatantly misremembering the facts, but these are my emotions as they stand. My apologies if I have pushed aside reality in favour of stewing in angst and a woe is me mentality. After a break, my emotions are less prevalent, so I think it is safe to engage in discourse now. 

I think Dannex just has had a lot of us really pocketed this game. Between Illwei hardtowning them and Dice town tunneling, there hasn't been a lot of reason to suspect Dannex of anything. I guess that should have been our biggest warning bell, is that I don't think Dannex has had to defend or justify themselves much this game mostly because the rest of Town has been doing it for him. Your criticisms of Dannex are valid, and I think if we could get a whole wagon on him I'd be more interested in that shrek than Devo. I just don't think that's going to happen.

[Mat he/him]

35 minutes ago, Gears said:

I answered in the part you quoted. No one wants to vote you, so I can't get a majority on you. Breaker and I are a unit, but the Greys are opposed, Jam suspects Devo over you, Archer thinks the Danex X is nonviable because the Greys are opposed, and Matrim thinks you're village for some reason. However, the opposed are willing to vote Devotary [excluding Devotary themself, of course]. 

Also, completely unrelated tangent: I feel somewhat miffed that despite the evidence I've outlined in previous cycles, no one actually seems to be paying Danex any mind. Was my logic unsound? Did I make a flawed argument? No one even engaged my arguments, merely brushed them aside. I feel somewhat ignored. This may be unfounded and I'm just blatantly misremembering the facts, but these are my emotions as they stand. My apologies if I have pushed aside reality in favour of stewing in angst and a woe is me mentality. After a break, my emotions are less prevalent, so I think it is safe to engage in discourse now. 

Aight, so I read your posts from last cycle, and I'm a tad annoyed with myself for skimming them earlier  because they make a lot of sense, especially the one regarding the lack of a Quinn self-pres vote. If he's evil he's got me in a deeeeeep pocket and I admit I've let that cloud a lot of my views on reading you.

I'm talking myself into believing a Dannex/Devo team now. How bout that.

My only issue with the above is that they would be being... pretty obvious about it, something I'd think Devotary wouldn't do. But that's small enough that I'm fine to overlook it for the moment.

I think killing Devo first is smarter, because if we get Dannex first Devo technically could use manip away, and I'm still clinging to any hope he's village  So I'll stay on Devo for the cycle, though if Devo flips elim I wouldn't be opposed to a Dannex exe. It has to happen eventually.

[Guest Breaker]

2 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Why would you vote Devo and not me? If (when) Devo flips vil, y’all will assume the Elim Grey is James, and then waste another cycle voting them. If we vote me, we can clear both of them.

I'm quite surprised to hear you're willing to sacrifice yourself to soft-clear people, but I definitely hadn't considered that game plan from you. I'm not great at the I-know-you-know-I-know schtick, but...this doesn't seem like an elim strat? Ultimately, I'd note there are two big reasons I'm still rather opposed.

First and foremost, I don't think you're an eliminator; despite the fact that, until this post, your reckless playstyle had abated once the elim count shrank, I simply must refer to the earlier points of Illwei. If I vote for you, it will be in the interest of retaining the political alliance with Gears, the village status of whom I consider very solid. 

 

Second, I do not believe that shrekking you would necessarily clear James or Devo, especially not Devo. They've been simply too inactive until now, and it's hard to assemble their thought process, as a result. James, on the other hand, I'd be more confident in, since he's matching my expectations of a Village!James, and since he's been your staunchest opponent before. 

 

I spent an entire hour trying to write this post safely, getting up occasionally to clear my head. My apologies if my wording is different from my norm; I'm struggling with this. Consider me tired. 

[James Brafin he/him]

29 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Consider me tired. 

This just in: Breaker is some kind of land vehicle. More at 11.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'd like to hear thoughts on this, as I'm pretty confident after another look at the distribution that the elims don't have an e/e bond pair still alive. As I'm unsure which of the comps is left, as it stands now I'd like to tie it between Devotary and Gears. Though maybe not a tie, because Devo can manip away :/

You're right that 5 elims with two Warders would be a lot though I don't think impossible.

The only possible way that I'm an elim is if Dannex is also evil. Nothing else makes any sense whatsoever. It also doesn't make sense for Dannex to be evil. We've covered this literally the entire game. I don't know why people keep talking about Dannex being evil when it doesn't really make sense.

Dannex (4): Ashbringer, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation
Lotus (3): Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Flyingbooks42
Liranil (3): Breaker, James Brafin, Dannex
Gears (1): Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1): Archer

Here was the D1 vote count as of 20 minutes before rollover. Lotus votes for Dannex, who you apparently believe is evil and not Liranil who is village, 13 minutes before rollover. James switches to Lotus 10 minutes before rollover and Dannex follows onto a prospective teammate without having seen James's switch, and Breaker kills the Liranil train by voting Dannex.

Dannex (6): Ashbringer, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation, Lotus, Breaker
Lotus (5): Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Flyingbooks42, James, Dannex
Gears (1): Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1): Archer

Striker laments the switch to Lotus without caring about the six votes on Dannex. Books misses all the posts and tries to switch to Liranil. I vote for Lotus seven minutes before rollover and Books switches back at the last minute.

Dannex (6): Ashbringer, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation, Lotus, Breaker
Lotus (6): Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Flyingbooks42, James, Dannex, Devotary
Gears (1): Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1): Archer

Cycle 2 where Dannex was saved by a late push on Ash, we have

Ashbringer (6) : Matrim's Dice, Breaker, StrikerEZ, James Brafin, Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (5) : Gears, Ashbringer, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil
Quinn0928 (1) : Dannex

Striker starts a wagon on Ash 4 minutes before rollover against 7 Dannex votes that he can't have expected would work since neither of the two known elims on Dannex bothered to switch onto the new train.

Cycle 3 the vote was

Dannex (3): Gears, Breaker, Archer
Quinn0928 (2): Matrim's Dice, Devotary of Spontaneity
Archer (1): James Brafin

an hour and forty minutes before rollover, which was the last time Quinn was able to be online according to text she's not allowed to lie with. Illwei puts a vote on Archer so that by the time Dannex shows up and votes Quinn, the tally is

Dannex (3): Gears, Breaker, Archer
Quinn0928 (2): Matrim's Dice, Devotary of Spontaneity
Archer (2): James Brafin, Illwei

so there's no reason for an elim Dannex to vote for elim Lotus.

Lotus votes for Archer bringing it to a three way tie and Illwei switches to Quinn for a final of

Quinn0928 (4): Matrim's Dice, Devotary of Spontaneity, Dannex, Illwei
Dannex (3): Gears, Breaker, Archer
Archer (2): James Brafin, Lotus

C4 means little because everyone voted for Lotus and the only votes on Dannex C5 were Gears and Breaker.

 

[Mat he/him]

why does everyone have a billion reasons to read them as village. I honestly might abstain from voting for like the first time ever.

[Guest Breaker]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

why does everyone have a billion reasons to read them as village. I honestly might abstain from voting for like the first time ever.

Somebody please put these moving lyrics to song, that my soul might resonate with the truth therein.

 

35 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

This just in: Breaker is some kind of land vehicle. More at 11.

Somebody upvoted this, and whoever it is, I have a message for you.



May I have one, too? I'd like to graduate higher than Babsk. 

Edit: You are loved. Always remember that. 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Breaker

[Mat he/him]

Gah! Devotary.

I may vote Gears. I'll really have to think about it.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
elims i give you permission to kill me i have no idea what to do anymore

[Guest Breaker]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Gah! Devotary.

I may vote Gears. I'll really have to think about it.

Not gonna dedicate the time for a longer post after earlier, but I earnestly don't believe Gears could have kept himself secret as an eliminator around me. Between all the PM's --a dozen pages of them -- I think I'd have found a chink in the armor. Moreover, his tunnel-vision on Dannex would be downright suicidal for an eliminator, since it could easily lead to retaliation in the extremely-likely case that Dannex was Shrekt. If Dannex was an elim, it's a horrible play, and, if Dannex was Vil, counter-Shrek is coming. 

 

Gears is my strongest village read.