Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 James is a strong village read from a number of our most reliable sources. I think you’re fighting a losing battle, Archer.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Archer said: Good question. My best guess is because you are an elim and they want to keep you alive because you're largely trusted. My second best guess is that the two Greys both seemed less dangerous than Orlok (fear kill). My third best guess is they're RNGing these kills and I will scream if that's the answer. Ah yes. So So your reasoning is "If James kills Devo, he'll look like an Elim. So James doesn't kill Devo, so he looks like an Elim?" So no matter what I do, I look like an elim. This is just confbias. I can't even. I've hashed out this argument twice now -- you can't elim read someone for both doing and not doing something. That's just bad logic! Not to mention that we have mechanically confirmed that both the Greys are village. The very fact that you are trying to get us both off today is about the dumbest thing you could be doing right now. (Edit to say that the Elims probably hit Orlock because it's a safe shot. No frills, nothing fancy; it deprives us of info and hides their motives. Their next shot will be between Order and Connie, most likely.) Edited January 20, 2021 by James Brafin
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Remembering that Matrim claimed Archer as his Aes-Sedai. All village vote manipulators is fairly common specifically because vote manipulation is much more powerful for the elims. QF 48 was the most recent game where the village had vote manip while the elims didn't. Connie and Order also aren't bound to reds. If Breaker was an elim red then Gears would also be evil.
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I’m not convinced Devotary is cleared. Make me an argument.
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Ok ok ok ok ok ok ok ok ok ok It's Breaker and Archer, no? Now I'm actually gonna read all that. I haven't yet, but... yeah.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Breaker said: I’m not convinced Devotary is cleared. Make me an argument. I would not kill teammates for absolutely no reason when there were perfectly fine villagers available to be shrekt. I see you believe that elim Gears wouldn't vote on villagers to protect his teammates, but early bussing isn't extremely common.
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Hmm... yeah. I like this Archer exe a lot better. I don't need to echo everything James said... but suffice it to say I agree with all of it. Not to mention very similar thoughts I've had about things Archer said in our PM.
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I’ll accept hitting Archer, for now. I still think we can assemble a winning coalition of cleared people. James is the start of that plan. In reviewing Orlok, we find he had a pretty strong village read on James. I’ve echoed much of this, as did many of the other deceased. I can’t see suspecting him on this board, when we have Archer suspected first, and when we still have two near-silent players.
Archer he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Remembering that Matrim claimed Archer as his Aes-Sedai. All village vote manipulators is fairly common specifically because vote manipulation is much more powerful for the elims. QF 48 was the most recent game where the village had vote manip while the elims didn't. Cool. It hadn't happened in any game I'd scanned, so that is the point of confusion. My gut still says that there's an Elim Grey, but to avoid wasting an exe on me for what is widely viewed as a poor argument, I'll retract my vote on James. That leaves me leaning towards Connie then I guess. I'm not as enthusiastic it about it, but everyone else is cleared in my eyes, besides maybe Breaker for their role. Connie. Edited January 21, 2021 by Archer I'll properly green that when I'm on PC
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I offered to be scanned before; nobody ever did it, because everyone was confident I wasn’t lying. We should probably be thankful; it’s possible the elim team doesn’t consider me to be truthful. However, their failure to kill Greys puts a shadow of doubt over that theory; do we really know that they would kill me, anyway?
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Archer said: but to avoid wasting an exe on me for what is widely viewed as a poor argument ...I don't think it's widely viewed as a poor argument. I think it's widely viewed as a good argument. But idk. Just now, Breaker said: I offered to be scanned before; nobody ever did it, because everyone was confident I wasn’t lying. We should probably be thankful; it’s possible the elim team doesn’t consider me to be truthful. However, their failure to kill Greys puts a shadow of doubt over that theory; do we really know that they would kill me, anyway? While you're here, who did you scan, and what?
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 What votes has Archer actually cast? I don't like him comparing his vote on Striker to James's two votes for Lotus given that Striker was never in anything resembling danger while Lotus was actually shrekt both times. Archer votes Dannex C2, but since we're now 100% sure that Dannex is a villager as was Ash, that means less. Archer voting Dannex C3 looks bad, Lotus putting a vote on Archer instead of Dannex looks somewhat better. I still don't know why people voted on me D5 but since the main opposition was Burnt that's less AI. Possibly more so should Order be evil. I think I'm willing to vote Archer for now.
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 I posted it almost immediately. James. Whiff. The elimination team’s attacks haven’t been on priority role targets. But they eventually *have* to hit the Greys to win, because a Grey in endgame makes a round of 3 unwinnable for the eliminators unless the eliminator is also a Grey. Therefore, James and Devotary remain on my scan list. I won’t be revealing my reasoning day-by-day, since I don’t want to give away to the eliminator what my checkmating move is.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: ...I don't think it's widely viewed as a poor argument. I think it's widely viewed as a good argument. But idk. While you're here, who did you scan, and what? Me, no targets. But I could have told you that, as Elims have been pushing for a misshrek for a while now. I think they’ve been hoping they can get us into exlo and nip one of us off. Also y’all have got to stop pining my anxious ass. Not cool. This wagon built way faster than I am comfortable with p-edit: Not true, Breaker; the greys can just screw up. Really bad too. But it’s a further compelling argument for why Archer is suspicious.
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, James Brafin said: p-edit: Not true, Breaker; the greys can just screw up. Really bad too. But it’s a further compelling argument for why Archer is suspicious. ...that sort of kills my plans. im gonna need to talk to gears to formulate a new order of scanning.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Breaker said: ...that sort of kills my plans. im gonna need to talk to gears to formulate a new order of scanning. Sorry. It’s a good thought though! Keep doing it! If two Greys get there the Elims are probably screwed, so they have to hit one of us!
Archer he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said: ...I don't think it's widely viewed as a poor argument. I think it's widely viewed as a good argument. I think you misunderstand. I made a poor argument. The exe is based on my making a bad argument, in the eyes of the group. (Specifically, what's being framed as 'weaving a bad narrative' is how I think through things. I've just suggested the wrong possibilities too many times to pass muster.) Reads list! (Yes, it's sparse): Matrim: The wasted night kill looks like WGG. Otherwise, they've seemed pretty village. They've kept up appearances in our PM even today. Gears: Could be an elim feeding the targets of Breaker to the doc. Went hard after Dannex, but timed it to protect Devotary. I've been reading them as village. Breaker: They should be dead by now. They are able to spot night kills, and haven't been scanning themselves, so the elims should have at least taken a shot. If they're unprotected that night, they kill him. If they're protected, they take a life off Gears. They wasted a kill on Matrim, so why not unless Gears is an elim too. Order: Neutral impression of their posts. I can't remember many. I don't think the Warder of the only v!Grey would be elim, but if there's two v!Greys, it could happen. James: Has been helpful, but not infallible. If Matrim flips elim, they're village, given what they said about them last round. Otherwise they seem villagey, if you don't look at roles. Devotary: I stand by my earlier elimy read of them. Their contributions up until that post were lowkey, then they've picked up recently. They caused Dannex to die by defending them the way they did. That's suspicious, but I'm not sure how village and elim them would behave differently. Condensation: Pretty neutral read of them, which is probably related to level of activity. I have the least reason to trust they're village, so they're my current target. So my list from most elimy to least would go Connie, Breaker, James, Devotary, Gears, Matrim, Order. EDIT: Also, for the record @Matrim's Dice has permission not to protect me if the village decides to exe me. Edited January 21, 2021 by Archer
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, Archer said: IBreaker: They should be dead by now. They are able to spot night kills, and haven't been scanning themselves, so the elims should have at least taken a shot. If they're unprotected that night, they kill him. If they're protected, they take a life off Gears. They wasted a kill on Matrim, so why not unless Gears is an elim too. Been trying not to mention this, in case the elims didn't know, but I can't scan myself.
Mat he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Archer said: EDIT: Also, for the record @Matrim's Dice has permission not to protect me if the village decides to exe me. Don’t worry. Wasn’t planning on it The point on Breaker is very valid though. Why haven’t they been killed? They’re a very important track role that would be bad for the elims. Unless they are one. Edited January 21, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Don’t worry. Wasn’t planning on it The point on Breaker is very valid though. Why haven’t they been killed? They’re a very important track role. None of the vital roles have been killed since Liranil all the way back in cycle 2, and that was the earliest time Liranil was confirmed Green.
Mat he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Breaker said: None of the vital roles have been killed since Liranil all the way back in cycle 2, and that was the earliest time Liranil was confirmed Green. Yeah but... still The elims’ kill pattern makes no sense and I don’t understand. Heyyy people if we all come to agreement I’d almost rather kill Breaker first. Or tie between them again Edited January 21, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Yeah but... still The elims’ kill pattern makes no sense and I don’t understand. Heyyy people if we all come to agreement if almost rather kill Breaker first. Or tie between them again Didn't you say, just last cycle, that you didn't know what you were thinking, voting me? I was pretty seriously team don't-kill-Dannex, I've been against most of our crazy trains. Most of the dead people read me as village.
Mat he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Breaker said: Didn't you say, just last cycle, that you didn't know what you were thinking, voting me? I was pretty seriously team don't-kill-Dannex, I've been against most of our crazy trains. Most of the dead people read me as village. *shrug* Reads change. Last cycle I didn’t have much of a reason voting anyone. You I had little to nothing, good or bad, which by itself is sort of a red flag. Flying under the radar. Plus, team DontKillDannex doesn’t mean much anyway. Striker was that as well. I was, and still voted him. It’s a decently common strat to include correct village reads as an elim for cred. Also, most of the dead people reading you as village also doesn’t mean much. They’re dead :). And a good number were evil. This cycle has given me enough that I’ve changed my read on you from a default village because I had nothing to a mild evil because everyone else has better things. Plus you not being attacked, plus the things James mentioned. (Again, I’d be a-ok tying/exeing just Breaker)
Archer he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 I'd rather go down with Breaker than go down a lone villager. And if the exe doesn't happen, at least threatening to do it will probably prevent a night kill on village!Breaker. Let's assume if I die and flip Elim, y'all have the votes to find the last elim and win. If I flip village, who are you going to look at next? If James and Devotary are cleared, that leaves Gears, Breaker, Order, Matrim, and Connie. If you think Breaker is the other elim, you'll need to convince Gears to let them die or hit them twice beat the Warder protection.
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