James Brafin he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Yeah I agree. Frick shoot rats sorry I missed that. Order
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 We’re gonna tie them. Our chances of catching Kira that way are extremely high, on this board. In the worst case scenario, it’s one of the people I trust. Then we proceed to a round of three. The only way we can’t win a round of three is if the eliminator is Gears, which I consider extremely unlikely. Therefore...we maximize those we trust! Order! Die!
Gears Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Condensation. Do whatever it takes to maintain the tie. Sidenote: Jam, if you are actually an eliminator, then you are incredibly good at this game and I hope you never leave us. The winning coalition comes down to us.
Mat he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, Gears said: Condensation. Do whatever it takes to maintain the tie. Sidenote: Jam, if you are actually an eliminator, then you are incredibly good at this game and I hope you never leave us. The winning coalition comes down to us. Nah nah this is what I’m worried about Like a James-Connie team. And like we’ll try to tie it an he’ll just manip away to win. Think about it, why’d they kill Devo over James? James has been significantly more trusted. I change my mind. Tying it is a baaaad idea. Just kill Connie, only Connie.
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 I’m just too confident in James to abort mission. Can we please not have a guessing game between you and James on your vote and his suppression? It hurts the village by confusing our information state.
Mat he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Breaker said: I’m just too confident in James to abort mission. Can we please not have a guessing game between you and James on your vote and his suppression? It hurts the village by confusing our information state. It’s too much of an unknown for me. Why do you trust James so much anyway? He hasn’t been attacked at all despite having a powerful role and being well trusted for a reason I can’t say. He hasn’t... well, caught much. As Illwei put it he really started coasting. I can’t let the tie happen. Like- too risky this late game when it has to do with a clear for only a half reason. Edited January 21, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Gears Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: And like we’ll try to tie it an he’ll just manip away to win. Here's what we do: We put more votes on Condensation than on Order. Then, Jam manips away 1 vote from the Condensation X. As it stands, it is 2-2. Order and Condensation will probably vote for the other. Set it up so that we have 1 extra vote on Condensation. One of Jam or Kai can retract. Then, Jam can't save Condensation. He can only make it tie. Edited January 21, 2021 by Gears
Condensation she/her Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Why would Jam want to save me? I'm not an elim. And I don't lie. Ask... Mist, or people from one of my previous LGs (the one with the Honourblades).
Mat he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 (Btw I wrote this before Gears posted. I was just gonna edit it into my post if no one did before.) @Gears @Breaker @James Brafin @Condensation @The Unknown Order Right now, there are 6 people alive. That means we are either at 4-2 or 5-1. Either one is possible. We've discussed this. If we're at 4-2, this cycle is exlo. As such, we should assume it is because assuming it's not would likely be foolhardy. We are at exlo, then. Meaning we have have have to exe an elim today. What is the worst possible idea during this situation? Forming a tie with an unknown-aligned manniper still in the game. I don't care how villagery James seems, his alignment is not confirmed. I don't need you to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But I do need everyone in this game to ask themselves: Is this possible? Because the answer is yes. And the slimmest chance of the situation where we tie with Order and Connie, James saves Connie while killing me or Breaker for the win, however unlikely that is, the chance of it occurring is existent. And that makes me not even want to consider a tie. 2 minutes ago, Gears said: Here's what we do: We put more votes on Condensation than on Order. Then, Jam manips away 1 vote from the Condensation X. As it stands, it is 2-2. Order and Condensation will probably vote for the other. Set it up so that we have 1 extra vote on Condensation. One of Jam or Kai can retract. Then, Jam can't save Condensation. He can only make it tie. Hmm. That would work, but it would require a few things. Namely, Order actually getting online. Which would be nice. If not, Breaker is gonna have to unvote Order and vote Connie. Let's see... assuming Order doesn't show up, the count would have to be Condensation (3): Matrim's Dice, Gears, Breaker The Unknown Order (2): James Brafin, Condensation 3 minutes ago, Condensation said: Why would Jam want to save me? I'm not an elim. And I don't lie. Ask... Mist, or people from one of my previous LGs (the one with the Honourblades). I mean the meta is quite strong here Like I have no reason to believe that Except I do because ermmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm I like Gears' plan. The count should be that, it would work, all would go well. Right? Man we're being played so hard right now. I don't even know. Whatever Black Ajah member is still alive... you're doing a very good job. Illwei's probably yelling at me lol
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 He’s a new player. They don’t often get NK’d. Are you just worried that you’d die in a ro3 with me and gears or gears and James? Being honest, you likely would. A round of four, then, benefits you, if you’re the eliminator, Matrim. With a scapegoat left to eat aggro, you’d be able to eliminate someone, potentially forcing a draw. now, you’re not my pick for an eliminator. Otherwise, this discussion wouldn’t make sense. But, with Connie and Order dead, and with my faith in Gears almost unshakeable, I would turn to you. Ask yourself this: would an eliminator be afraid of this outcome? Yes. It means defeat. Would a villager? Only if they suspected Gears of being the eliminator. we can no longer win against two eliminators, unless we get supremely lucky. I shall no longer entertain strategies that focus on such a possibility. Furthermore, our only possible winning hand against two eliminators absolutely requires that gears and I are villagers. His extra life is the last hope. If he’s an eliminator, your only way to defeat a gears-breaker team is to Shrek me right now, and Shrek gears tomorrow. No other option results in victory. If the team is not breaker-gears, but breaker-Someone or Gears-someone, you will not win. Therefore, unless you are confident beyond a reasonable doubt that gears and I are the eliminator team, we must dispense of all notions of a 2-eliminator team. We can only play the field that we can win on. We can no longer win a 2-elim game. henceforth, there is one eliminator. Since we have to assume either breaker-gears or one eliminator, targeting me is an option today. But it loses instantly if I’m not an elim, and there are two elims, and requires totally perfect play from us henceforth if I’m not an eliminator and there’s only one elim. Given how many people have read me village, how many of the living read me village, and how the person I suspected was just night-killed, as I was planning how to use organize their shrekking today, I think it’s pointless to pursue me. Pursuing gears is pointless, because I will defend them, because they have two lives, and because they are, after all, a villager. we are off the table, unless you’ve got an extremely confident breaker-gears read. james is the most dangerous eliminator candidate. If we double kill, in a round of three, he can force a draw. He is de-clawed, however, with order dead. Matrim loses in a round of three unless he can trick the other two players. The quiet null reads are sus in endgame. connie loses in a round of three due to suspicion. order loses in a round of three due to suspicion. what can we do except create a voting block for the last round by killing our best shots? Furthermore, it’s simply efficient for this cycle’s vote, ignoring the game theory for next round. We suspect Connie and order the most. They’re a convenient shield for an eliminator next round, sure, but they’re also our best guesses for an elim. it’s time for an all-in. (this post was audited by gears. But we didn’t take super long; it’s unedited, and I didn’t chart it. Please let me know if you see logic holes)
Condensation she/her Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: I mean the meta is quite strong here Like I have no reason to believe that Except I do because ermmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm I like Gears' plan. The count should be that, it would work, all would go well. Right? Man we're being played so hard right now. I don't even know. Whatever Black Ajah member is still alive... you're doing a very good job. Illwei's probably yelling at me lol Didn't I tell you? Or was it someone else? Either way, I told someone or multiple people that I don't lie. Whatever. Shrek me. But I'll be the first to say I told you so. Just like last QF. Just sayin'.
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 No, if you’re a vil, I’ll say I told you so first, just to make you a liar.
Condensation she/her Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Breaker said: No, if you’re a vil, I’ll say I told you so first, just to make you a liar. I'm a fast poster. Go look up the previous QF. I said it. I was right - I got all of the elims. I don't have nearly as much of a clue this time, but you'll still regret it if you shrek me - because at that point, you'll either lose or play one cycle then lose. It'd be a miracle if you won after shrekking a villager.
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 I definitely accept this race. The conditions: IF Condensation flips villager THEN the first one to direct message Matrim "I told you so," AFTER Cycle 9 is posted, making the information public, WINS.... We should discuss the stakes, hmm?
Condensation she/her Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Breaker said: I definitely accept this race. The conditions: IF Condensation flips villager THEN the first one to direct message Matrim "I told you so," AFTER Cycle 9 is posted, making the information public, WINS.... We should discuss the stakes, hmm? Um... I don't bet. How about we both get to say I told you so even though you haven't said it yet? And, y'know, I probably shouldn't be messaging Mat if I'm dead.
Mat he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Breaker said: He’s a new player. They don’t often get NK’d. Very much depends on the definition of 'new player'. Sure, Order has a reason to be not NKd, but James is still an experienced mafia player and I would have no qualms about killing vil!him, especially this late. 15 minutes ago, Breaker said: we can no longer win against two eliminators, unless we get supremely lucky. I shall no longer entertain strategies that focus on such a possibility. Furthermore, our only possible winning hand against two eliminators absolutely requires that gears and I are villagers. His extra life is the last hope. If he’s an eliminator, your only way to defeat a gears-breaker team is to Shrek me right now, and Shrek gears tomorrow. No other option results in victory. If the team is not breaker-gears, but breaker-Someone or Gears-someone, you will not win. Therefore, unless you are confident beyond a reasonable doubt that gears and I are the eliminator team, we must dispense of all notions of a 2-eliminator team. We can only play the field that we can win on. We can no longer win a 2-elim game. Not true. If it's a 2 elim game with literally anyone else it works. James-Connie. James-Order. Situations with me that aren't true but technically possible and technically winnable. Kill one today, kill one tomorrow. But it also rests on not causing a tie. 15 minutes ago, Breaker said: henceforth, there is one eliminator. Since we have to assume either breaker-gears or one eliminator, targeting me is an option today. But it loses instantly if I’m not an elim, and there are two elims, and requires totally perfect play from us henceforth if I’m not an eliminator and there’s only one elim. Given how many people have read me village, how many of the living read me village, and how the person I suspected was just night-killed, as I was planning how to use organize their shrekking today, I think it’s pointless to pursue me. Pursuing gears is pointless, because I will defend them, because they have two lives, and because they are, after all, a villager. If we kill just you and you flip vil, it goes to 3-1. Not a loss. Which is why I want to kill just one person. But I don't want to pursue you or Gears, I want to pursue Connie/James maybe Order. 15 minutes ago, Breaker said: james is the most dangerous eliminator candidate. If we double kill, in a round of three, he can force a draw. He is de-clawed, however, with order dead. The point about Order dying/James losing manip is valid. And important. 15 minutes ago, Breaker said: it’s time for an all-in. It's just... I really don't think it is. If we all-in and lose, then the game is over at a loss. If we don't all in, kill one person, failure will result in a next cycle with a smaller number of possibilities. You should get that considering you find the only possible team to be a one person team. If this is the case all-in is a bad idea compared to biding time. Drawing it out and thinning the pile is the best thing we can do outside of shooting the one person we think is evil. And honestly, I believe Connie won't outright lie in an SE game. Order. I don't understand why y'all changed your minds about the unlikeliness of a WGG anyway. My vote for the outcome of the cycle would be killing just Order. Edited January 21, 2021 by Matrim's Dice why couldnt the elims have just killed me ;-;
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) Just now, Condensation said: Um... I don't bet. How about we both get to say I told you so even though you haven't said it yet? And, y'know, I probably shouldn't be messaging Mat if I'm dead. So, you were lying. Edited January 21, 2021 by Breaker
Condensation she/her Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Breaker said: So, you were lying. No, I just don't bet. If I'm village, I can say "I told you so." If I'm not, you can say "I told you so." I don't lie.
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Breaker said: I definitely accept this race. The conditions: IF Condensation flips villager THEN the first one to direct message Matrim "I told you so," AFTER Cycle 9 is posted, making the information public, WINS.... We should discuss the stakes, hmm? We of the Eliminator team agree to these terms. Seriously, I like the Gears one vote above plan, the only problem is, if James doesn't remove from Connie, then I don't die.
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Condensation said: But I'll be the first to say I told you so.. This is a lie. So I get your soul. It's in the contract.
Condensation she/her Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Breaker said: This is a lie. So I get your soul. It's in the contract. Um... no. Because I already said I told you so.
Guest Breaker Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Condensation said: Whatever. Shrek me. But I'll be the first to say I told you so. "I'll" implies "will," meaning "in the future." Further, the language creates contingency, specifically contingent upon your wrongful shrekking. it's a lie. You lose your soul.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said: Nah nah this is what I’m worried about Like a James-Connie team. And like we’ll try to tie it an he’ll just manip away to win. Think about it, why’d they kill Devo over James? James has been significantly more trusted. I change my mind. Tying it is a baaaad idea. Just kill Connie, only Connie. Lol what happened to only one warder or two Aes Sedi? I just got real suspect of Dice, y'all.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said: We of the Eliminator team agree to these terms. Seriously, I like the Gears one vote above plan, the only problem is, if James doesn't remove from Connie, then I don't die. There's six. Three people vote Connie, three vote order, and I don't touch anyone. That's the plan. Everyone cool with that? Okay? Okay.
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