Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, James Brafin said: Also: Striker, Lotus, and Quinn have all been heading those wagons as well. It wasn't just Matrim and I. I don't know it means anything at all, but it is super super weird. That's also a lie. Did you read either my or Illwei's posts detailing how votes were cast?
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 We have seven minutes. I'm not even gonna find the CODE MENT "Seven minutes" clip, because I want those seven minutes for trying to think.
|TJ| he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Author Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) Cycle - 7: I Am Weary, Let Me Rest Kill me brothers kill your brethren Lay your knife upon my chest Throw your swinging arms around me I am weary let me rest Through the years you've always loved me And my life you've tried to save But now I shall slumber sweetly In a deep and lonely grave Kill me brothers kill your brethren See the pain upon my brow While I'll soon be with the angels Fate has doomed my future now Dannex has been eliminated. They were Rebel Aes Sedai of the order Brown Ajah. The Unknown Order was attempted to be eliminated, but survived. Orlok Tsubodai has been killed. They were Rebel Aes Sedai of the order White Ajah. Vote Count: The Unknown Order (3) : Breaker, James Brafin, Dannex Dannex (3) : Matrim's Dice, Gears, Archer Cycle 7 has begun and will end on January 21, at 23:30 IST [GMT + 05:30]. Please try to bold your votes, and give retractions in green. Don’t forget to put your actions in! Player List: Spoiler @Matrim's Dice - Philico @Gears - Roko the Basilisk Ashbringer- Faleast Rebel Aes Sedai [Blue Ajah] @Breaker Quinn0928 Black Ajah [Red Ajah] Lotus - Ilyanna Black Ajah [Warder] @Archer - Brick Liranil Rebel Aes Sedai [Green Ajah] Shard of Reading Rebel Aes Sedai [Yellow Ajah] StrikerEZ - Star Black Ajah [White Ajah] @The Unknown Order - Ettsel @James Brafin Burnt Spaghetti Rebel Aes Sedai [Brown Ajah] Dannex Rebel Aes Sedai [Brown Ajah] Illwei Rebel Aes Sedai [White Ajah] Flyingbooks42 Rebel Aes Sedai [Red Ajah] @Devotary of Spontaneity - Kine @Condensation - Connie Orlok Tsubodai Rebel Aes Sedai [White Ajah] Edited January 20, 2021 by TJ Shade 2
Gears Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I did not expect that. Danex, sorry for tunnelling on you for all this time. Go scream in the dead doc about how wrong I was. I can only assume that Orlok was a fear-kill, since they've only really mentioned Danex. In Orlok's honor, we must purge the world of the confirmed evil TJ Shade, who is a Game Master, a nefarious breed of monster. In all seriousness, where now shall we turn? The Greys are basically confirmed village now. Players: Matrim [I lean village, but nothing definite], Gears [I have a tunnelling problem, it seems], Breaker [if you kill him, I'll kill you.], Archer [you confuse me, but you agreed with me], Order [null = sus late game], Jam [Grey], Devotary [Grey], Condensation [null = sus]. Conclusion: Order and Condensation are more suspicious than anyone because they haven't done anything. Discuss. There's probably only 1 left.
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) I'm gonna go snuggle my dog. She swats my phone out of my hand during snuggles, since it means I'm not giving her attention, so I'll put off reviewing Orlok's posts until then. Edit: Oh, before I forget, nobody targeted James. Edited January 20, 2021 by Breaker
Mat he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) I’m left wondering why I’m still alive. Order, or Connie? We could tie between them :/ Edit: That’s actually a good idea, right? Worst-case scenario is two more elims and neither of Order and Connie are one. We’d lose 3, taking it to 3-2. At that point... it should be obvious, no? I doubt that will happen but it’s still fine if it does. Condensation @TJ Shade Edited January 20, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 REEEE I agree we are better off doing a tie here. I’m a little shocked I’m not dead tbh. This does clear both Devo and me though, but beyond that... I need to go think. I don’t know what to do. Be back after class.
Gears Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Order, or Connie? We could tie between them :/ Viable since we trust the Greys. Orlok's posts [All hail the analysis god] Orlok 1: Suspicious of Danex Orlok 2: Asks why Danex not suspicious Orlok 3: Unable to read Breaker [good job, chaos demon] Orlok 4: "Townslip", reads Jam as vil. Nothing much here. Fear for the future, perhaps, with so few of us remaining. Let me snip their AI analysis of the living ones. General conclusions from Orlok: Matrim: Mild elim for village reading Striker and switching off of Danex [though there were plenty of mild village reads in there] Gears: Mostly unsure/null. Breaker: Confusion. Archer: Moderate village [to be fair, they only had the 1 post] for poking Striker. Order: Mild evil for weird reads. Jam: Village for confusion, analysis, lots of things. [Jam, do you accept Orlok's offer of marriage?]. Devotary: Mild village for good points [just the one post though]. Condensation: Mild village for Danex vote initially [and then a lot of NAI]. TJ Shade: DEMON! The following is a joke/banter: Will no one support me in striking down the dreaded Game Master? Orlok read them as evil! Pure evil! We must strike them down!
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I’ve made a petition, in order to raise awareness of the looming threat. http://chng.it/ZS6gqW8Skx
Archer he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) The way Devotary protected Dannex throughout this game was suspicious. It threw Gears and I off for several days. However, given that Dannex has now flipped Village, it would have made more sense for elim!Devotary to protect Elims up for exe, including Quinn (who they voted for C3). I believe the elims have a vote manipulator, so that leaves James. I’ll justify my decision using the end of C3 vote results. Elim!James joined the CW on me when Quinn was up for exe. They could have forced a tie with Dannex-Quinn by adding a Grey vote onto Dannex, but they were smart enough not to, knowing that the other Grey had consistently protected them. Matrim never switched off, which makes them seem villagey to me, because the other three votes on Quinn seem to have been villagers. (Future me here: rereading this, you could also conclude that this is proof both Greys are innocent, but if you think that, make me a balanced elim team without using the Greys. And if James really thought I was an elim, why not add a vote to me to put his money where his mouth is?). Quinn0928 (4) : Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Dannex, Devotary of Spontaneity Dannex (2) : Gears, Breaker, Archer Archer (2): Lotus, James Brafin I expect Devotary to be night killed soon (being the most powerful person left besides Breaker, who can spot night kills), so let’s get all the vote manipulation off the table by hitting James. Since Orlok was not an elim!yellow, I struggle to balance things without an elim!Grey. We know that we have: Red (Quinn)+Lotus (Warder)+Striker (White) VS Blue (Ashbringer)+Green (Liranil)+Yellow (Shard)+Brown (Burnt)+Brown (Dannex)+White (Illwei)+Red (Flying)+White (Orlok)+Red (Archer) AKA Red+Outbonded Warder+White+XXX+XXX? VS Green+Yellow+Blue+Brown+Brown+White+White+Red+Red+5 Grey (Devotary) Grey (James) Blue (Breaker) Blue’s Warder (Gears) Red’s Warder (Matrim) Grey’s Warder (Order) (White’s?) Warder (Connie) Looks to me like the two village reds and whites were to conceal the elim reds and whites, by the way. So I'm clearing myself because two reds on the elim team makes little sense. Elim!Grey warder on village!Grey doesn’t make sense because they’d be quickly killed. So I’m mentally clearing Order for now. The reverse is however possible. I could apply the same logic to the Blue, but the village did have two of them, so maybe one was expendable. The village needed at least one Blue, but we didn’t need two. So Breaker is my backup choice, but I’d prefer to keep them alive for now because the value of maybe picking up a night kill is higher than maybe hitting an elim. I don’t like the look of a Red+White+Warder+Warder+Warder team. Sure, they have extra lives, but they are weak on offensive ability. And then what good is having a Red? You’d know three of the five warders already. For that reason alone, I think there’s a maximum of one living Warder on the elim team. If it's not Matrim or Order, it's Connie or Gears. My money's on Connie, and I'd join a wagon on them if the opportunity arose. I absolutely understand Gears’ crusade against Dannex. I was thinking along similar lines. Dannex, you were right about the lack of vanillas and you were playing honest the whole game through, I apologize for not believing you. For future reference, my scans are useless with all the roles known, so now I’m just double-checking people’s claims. If I find anything damming, I’ll let the group know. Edited January 20, 2021 by Archer
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) Red/Warder/Warder/Warder/Warder is a pretty ridiculous concept, but I struggle to find a world where James' endless waffling on Dannex was productive as an eliminator. Perhaps they never kept suspicion up overnight during a time when Dannex was likely to die, but that will require examination, and would only remove some of their alibi. I consider James MORE exonerated by this than Devotary. I'm frustrated you would go for me, but I'm struggling to ID their teamcomp myself. I think it's probably time to simulate endgame positions. I hate endgame. edit: after consideration, I’m recommending that everyone halt their scans. We know everything; all you can do is get caught in my scan instead of the eliminator. In turn, if you wish to target me, please do so. It only makes sense, since I’ve never been confirmed, and since I’m the one making the request. Edited January 20, 2021 by Breaker
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Archer said: The way Devotary protected Dannex throughout this game was suspicious. It threw Gears and I off for several days. However, given that Dannex has now flipped Village, it would have made more sense for elim!Devotary to protect Elims up for exe, including Quinn (who they voted for C3). I believe the elims have a vote manipulator, so that leaves James. I’ll justify my decision using the end of C3 vote results. Elim!James joined the CW on me when Quinn was up for exe. They could have forced a tie with Dannex-Quinn by adding a Grey vote onto Dannex, but they were smart enough not to, knowing that the other Grey had consistently protected them. Matrim never switched off, which makes them seem villagey to me, because the other three votes on Quinn seem to have been villagers. (Future me here: rereading this, you could also conclude that this is proof both Greys are innocent, but if you think that, make me a balanced elim team without using the Greys. And if James really thought I was an elim, why not add a vote to me to put his money where his mouth is?). Quinn0928 (4) : Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Dannex, Devotary of Spontaneity Dannex (2) : Gears, Breaker, Archer Archer (2): Lotus, James Brafin I expect Devotary to be night killed soon (being the most powerful person left besides Breaker, who can spot night kills), so let’s get all the vote manipulation off the table by hitting James. Since Orlok was not an elim!yellow, I struggle to balance things without an elim!Grey. We know that we have: Red (Quinn)+Lotus (Warder)+Striker (White) VS Blue (Ashbringer)+Green (Liranil)+Yellow (Shard)+Brown (Burnt)+Brown (Dannex)+White (Illwei)+Red (Flying)+White (Orlok)+Red (Archer) AKA Red+Outbonded Warder+White+XXX+XXX? VS Green+Yellow+Blue+Brown+Brown+White+White+Red+Red+5 Grey (Devotary) Grey (James) Blue (Breaker) Blue’s Warder (Gears) Red’s Warder (Matrim) Grey’s Warder (Order) (White’s?) Warder (Connie) Looks to me like the two village reds and whites were to conceal the elim reds and whites, by the way. So I'm clearing myself because two reds on the elim team makes little sense. Elim!Grey warder on village!Grey doesn’t make sense because they’d be quickly killed. So I’m mentally clearing Order for now. The reverse is however possible. I could apply the same logic to the Blue, but the village did have two of them, so maybe one was expendable. The village needed at least one Blue, but we didn’t need two. So Breaker is my backup choice, but I’d prefer to keep them alive for now because the value of maybe picking up a night kill is higher than maybe hitting an elim. I don’t like the look of a Red+White+Warder+Warder+Warder team. Sure, they have extra lives, but they are weak on offensive ability. And then what good is having a Red? You’d know three of the five warders already. For that reason alone, I think there’s a maximum of one living Warder on the elim team. If it's not Matrim or Order, it's Connie or Gears. My money's on Connie, and I'd join a wagon on them if the opportunity arose. I absolutely understand Gears’ crusade against Dannex. I was thinking along similar lines. Dannex, you were right about the lack of vanillas and you were playing honest the whole game through, I apologize for not believing you. For future reference, my scans are useless with all the roles known, so now I’m just double-checking people’s claims. If I find anything damming, I’ll let the group know. This is dumb, since with Dannex's flip we Devo and I are confirmed town. My guess here is that Archer is pushing to shrek me, then turn on devo when I flip Vil. I'm not going to argue semantics about this; I was offline when the flip happened and couldn't get back in time, otherwise I would have done more. Again, you're using something completely NAI as a reason to justify me being Elim. Archer I realize that you don't think he's an Elim, Dice, but Archer has been weaving a fake narrative since day one, and not really contributing anything to the conversation. It screams bad play. Also, 1) Archer has been consistently wrong about setup speculation. There was only one yellow, both browns were Elim, ect. The fact that they are still basing all of their reasoning on setup speculation after it has been revealed to them that their assumptions about the game's setup are completely wrong is absurd. That's willfully ignoring what has been going on in the game. And 2) This is a complete 180 from the last cycle; nowhere at all was I on Archer's read list, and they were confident to an extreme that Devo was likely Elim, citing several examples on how it could be Dice/Devo or Orlock/Devo. It's a complete and total shift in reasoning that Archer has no grounds for whatsoever. A third and final note: At this point, knowing that both Grey are town, why didn't the Elims take one out last night? With us alive it becomes much, much harder to push lynches and extends exlo for at least a cycle. A town player shouldn't be advocating for the removal of both Greys in a single swoop. However, if they're hoping to push for a misshrek based on bad setup spec, that makes a ton of sense. It's pretty much exactly what Archer did with Burnt and Dannex too, and I can see trying it again as being a really smart move. But I'm not going to fall for that twice, no sir, and I won't let anyone else either. Edit: 22 minutes ago, Breaker said: Red/Warder/Warder/Warder/Warder is a pretty ridiculous concept, but I struggle to find a world where James' endless waffling on Dannex was productive as an eliminator. Perhaps they never kept suspicion up overnight during a time when Dannex was likely to die, but that will require examination, and would only remove some of their alibi. I consider James MORE exonerated by this than Devotary. I'm frustrated you would go for me, but I'm struggling to ID their teamcomp myself. I think it's probably time to simulate endgame positions. I hate endgame. edit: after consideration, I’m recommending that everyone halt their scans. We know everything; all you can do is get caught in my scan instead of the eliminator. In turn, if you wish to target me, please do so. It only makes sense, since I’ve never been confirmed, and since I’m the one making the request. What about Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder? That makes sense to me, some weaker but valuable PRs for Elims, while also giving them some extra lives and off-switches for town PRs. I'd say Red/Grey/White/Warder/Warder, but we've mechanically cleared both the Greys, which Archer is conveniently forgetting, so... Edited January 20, 2021 by James Brafin
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 It’s possible. But that incriminates either Matrim or Gears. In fairness, I’d like to re-investigate the notion of an internally paired Warder/Aes Sedai. It’s a little weaker and a little stronger than the alternative. You get a more solid control of protects for the aes sedai, but, on the other hand, you can use that to your advantage to get aes sedai killed if the aes sedai is vil. It’s often a hard crime to track, since no aes sedai is public about their protection nights. On the other hand, the internal pm’s are useless, since you have the elim doc. Therefore, the control, information, and outreach of an external bond makes it the more valuable commodity. If there are four eliminators, or five, with the roles remaining, then the elim team was fairly weak to start. Perhaps they had an external bond. Do we have anyone alive who was bonded to a now-dead Aes Sedai? I suppose this also only further opens possibilities on gears and Matrim, but I have a very very solid village read on gears, and Matrim strikes me as village, despite a few past mishaps. Notably, he seemed concerned about Orlok reading him as elim. Given that Orlok only really read day 1, however, I don’t know what to make of that. I find myself once again talking in circles about how everybody has a good alibi. Oh, also, You’re not gonna like it, but my first inclination is to respond that the three Ajahs most likely to be Black Ajah, canonically, were, in order, Red, Grey, White. You are not going to stop me from geeking out about wheel of time, ok? The fifteen year-old that lost himself in that world is screaming at me to ramble about Tower politics.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Breaker said: It’s possible. But that incriminates either Matrim or Gears. In fairness, I’d like to re-investigate the notion of an internally paired Warder/Aes Sedai. It’s a little weaker and a little stronger than the alternative. You get a more solid control of protects for the aes sedai, but, on the other hand, you can use that to your advantage to get aes sedai killed if the aes sedai is vil. It’s often a hard crime to track, since no aes sedai is public about their protection nights. On the other hand, the internal pm’s are useless, since you have the elim doc. Therefore, the control, information, and outreach of an external bond makes it the more valuable commodity. If there are four eliminators, or five, with the roles remaining, then the elim team was fairly weak to start. Perhaps they had an external bond. Do we have anyone alive who was bonded to a now-dead Aes Sedai? I suppose this also only further opens possibilities on gears and Matrim, but I have a very very solid village read on gears, and Matrim strikes me as village, despite a few past mishaps. Notably, he seemed concerned about Orlok reading him as elim. Given that Orlok only really read day 1, however, I don’t know what to make of that. I find myself once again talking in circles about how everybody has a good alibi. Oh, also, You’re not gonna like it, but my first inclination is to respond that the three Ajahs most likely to be Black Ajah, canonically, were, in order, Red, Grey, White. You are not going to stop me from geeking out about wheel of time, ok? The fifteen year-old that lost himself in that world is screaming at me to ramble about Tower politics. None of this is unfair I don't think. But two warders also means it could be one of Order/Connie Why does it incriminate Gears? I thought you were blue. Edit: Oh, Breaker You wouldn't do this to me, would you, Breaker? Edited January 20, 2021 by James Brafin
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I was arguing that we might have an elim Warder who isn’t bonded to an elim aes sedai.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Breaker said: I was arguing that we might have an elim Warder who isn’t bonded to an elim aes sedai. Yea, that's reasonable. But why does the assumption that Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder and that they are bonded make Gears a suspect if you're blue then?
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Because I’m not an eliminator, and I’m suspecting the eliminators aren’t bonded to eliminators. I think we’re just misunderstanding each other.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Worst-case scenario is two more elims and neither of Order and Connie are one. We’d lose 3, taking it to 3-2. At that point... it should be obvious, no? I doubt that will happen but it’s still fine if it does. 3-2 would include 5 of you, me, roleless James, Gears/Breaker, and Archer. If Gears is evil while Breaker is not, that would be a guaranteed loss because of the two vote minimum but otherwise theoretically salvageable. There's plenty of elim teams powerful enough that they wouldn't need Greys, for instance any five member team with two Warders. 29 minutes ago, Breaker said: It’s possible. But that incriminates either Matrim or Gears. In fairness, I’d like to re-investigate the notion of an internally paired Warder/Aes Sedai. Do we know what the options for that are? If you were the Warder or Ajah for a dead elim it's worth mentioning. Breaker-Gears Matrim-? Lotus-? Connie-? ?-Quinn ?-Striker ?-Archer Probably we know some of these and I just missed it. I see you're saying that you don't think there were internal elim bonds. Do you still think 3 Ajah, 2 Warders or what?
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Breaker said: Because I’m not an eliminator, and I’m suspecting the eliminators aren’t bonded to eliminators. I think we’re just misunderstanding each other. I agree. I said that I think the most likely team is Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder, based on what we know about the setup. You made the (not unreasonable, but I think/thought is not accurate) assumption that I meant that the last two, Warder and Red, were bound together. So you responded (italics/bold for extending the line of reasoning) "But that incriminates Matrim or Gears, since they are the ones bonded to Red Ajah." Except, only Matrim is bound to a Red. Gears is not, he is bound to a blue -- you, as far as you claimed. So that logic doesn't parse, why would assuming that the Red and Warder were bonded incriminate Gears? There's a few options here: You think that (I meant)/(it could be) red/blue. Okay, great, except that makes no sense. You're the only blue, and we've all town-read you for a while; why would you, or anyone else, suddenly think that it's blue? You think Gears could Elim with Archer, as they are a Warder. That's -- marginally better, but why would you suddenly flip on your Warder like that, when there are literally four Warders living? That, again makes no sense, especially since you've been town-reading them all game. Or, three (and what I think is most likely): You slipped. You momentarily forgot that you had claimed blue previously, and made an error just now in softing/outing Red, prolly from game exhaustion.
Archer he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Breaker said: You’re not gonna like it, but my first inclination is to respond that the three Ajahs most likely to be Black Ajah, canonically, were, in order, Red, Grey, White. You are not going to stop me from geeking out about wheel of time, ok? The fifteen year-old that lost himself in that world is screaming at me to ramble about Tower politics. And furthermore, TJ made the tag 'well not exactly parody', which is clearly a hint about parity! 1 hour ago, James Brafin said: This is dumb, since with Dannex's flip we Devo and I are confirmed town. My guess here is that Archer is pushing to shrek me, then turn on devo when I flip Vil. I'm not going to argue semantics about this; I was offline when the flip happened and couldn't get back in time, otherwise I would have done more. Again, you're using something completely NAI as a reason to justify me being Elim. Archer I realize that you don't think he's an Elim, Dice, but Archer has been weaving a fake narrative since day one, and not really contributing anything to the conversation. It screams bad play. Also, 1) Archer has been consistently wrong about setup speculation. There was only one yellow, both browns were Elim, ect. The fact that they are still basing all of their reasoning on setup speculation after it has been revealed to them that their assumptions about the game's setup are completely wrong is absurd. That's willfully ignoring what has been going on in the game. And 2) This is a complete 180 from the last cycle; nowhere at all was I on Archer's read list, and they were confident to an extreme that Devo was likely Elim, citing several examples on how it could be Dice/Devo or Orlock/Devo. It's a complete and total shift in reasoning that Archer has no grounds for whatsoever. A third and final note: At this point, knowing that both Grey are town, why didn't the Elims take one out last night? With us alive it becomes much, much harder to push lynches and extends exlo for at least a cycle. A town player shouldn't be advocating for the removal of both Greys in a single swoop. However, if they're hoping to push for a misshrek based on bad setup spec, that makes a ton of sense. It's pretty much exactly what Archer did with Burnt and Dannex too, and I can see trying it again as being a really smart move. But I'm not going to fall for that twice, no sir, and I won't let anyone else either. Edit: What about Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder? That makes sense to me, some weaker but valuable PRs for Elims, while also giving them some extra lives and off-switches for town PRs. I'd say Red/Grey/White/Warder/Warder, but we've mechanically cleared both the Greys, which Archer is conveniently forgetting, so... The result of a Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder is the elims would know themselves and those they're bonded to (9 people, if I'm remembering right that Quinn was unbonded, otherwise ten), so it would take a maximum of five rounds to scan everyone, assuming no role reveals or insights from the White. At which point they'd definitely know who all the Warders - and be completely blind about all the other roles. Which is interesting, because my proposal of Red/White/Grey/Warder/Warder also leaves them unable to determine Ajah colours. Hm. If you suggest two village Greys, they'd be quite hard to hit without a Blue, but then, the role just trolls the village in that scenario. Where I'm coming from is I can't think of a single game ever on this site with multiple vote manipulators who are all village. (Perhaps someone who knows the local lore better can think of an example?) I have been consistently wrong about setup speculation. Everyone having a role threw me off for a bit, then I've been trying to figure out how to balance the Green. In a two v!Grey scenario, the exe is hard to predict/manipulate and the Green is an unpredictable kill. That's stacked against the elim team. My previous reasoning relied heavily on Dannex being an elim because the vote manipulation pointed to that. My thinking has changed. Why didn't they kill a Grey last night? James had a 50% chance of being protected, so that could be why they went for an easier target. But they've been willing to hit a Warder before (Matrim), which is a guaranteed waste. Devotary is a known unbonded with a powerful role. I propose they didn't hit a Grey because doing so would lead the village to think the remaining Grey is likely an elim. You're implying my talking this through will help them make better picks, but since everyone's role is known, they have enough to pick good targets without me thinking out loud. I don't recall advocating for Burnt exe. I think I've said there was likely an elim brown, but I actually voted Devotary in the round Burnt was up for exe. My voting record is e!Striker, v!Dannex, v!Dannex, none, ?!Devotary, v!Dannex. James' is e!Lotus (survived), v!Ashbringer, v!Archer, e!Lotus, v!Burnt, ?!Order (survived). Our differences in approaches haven't yielded much different results in terms of number of elims killed. Edit: Ninja'd by some posts. My main reservation is then what's the point of a vote manipulator role??? Edited January 20, 2021 by Archer
James Brafin he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Archer said: And furthermore, TJ made the tag 'well not exactly parody', which is clearly a hint about parity! The result of a Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder is the elims would know themselves and those they're bonded to (9 people, if I'm remembering right that Quinn was unbonded, otherwise ten), so it would take a maximum of five rounds to scan everyone, assuming no role reveals or insights from the White. At which point they'd definitely know who all the Warders - and be completely blind about all the other roles. Which is interesting, because my proposal of Red/White/Grey/Warder/Warder also leaves them unable to determine Ajah colours. Hm. If you suggest two village Greys, they'd be quite hard to hit without a Blue, but then, the role just trolls the village in that scenario. Where I'm coming from is I can't think of a single game ever on this site with multiple vote manipulators who are all village. (Perhaps someone who knows the local lore better can think of an example?) I have been consistently wrong about setup speculation. Everyone having a role threw me off for a bit, then I've been trying to figure out how to balance the Green. In a two v!Grey scenario, the exe is hard to predict/manipulate and the Green is an unpredictable kill. That's stacked against the elim team. My previous reasoning relied heavily on Dannex being an elim because the vote manipulation pointed to that. My thinking has changed. Why didn't they kill a Grey last night? James had a 50% chance of being protected, so that could be why they went for an easier target. But they've been willing to hit a Warder before (Matrim), which is a guaranteed waste. Devotary is a known unbonded with a powerful role. I propose they didn't hit a Grey because doing so would lead the village to think the remaining Grey is likely an elim. You're implying my talking this through will help them make better picks, but since everyone's role is known, they have enough to pick good targets without me thinking out loud. I don't recall advocating for Burnt exe. I think I've said there was likely an elim brown, but I actually voted Devotary in the round Burnt was up for exe. My voting record is e!Striker, v!Dannex, v!Dannex, none, ?!Devotary, v!Dannex. James' is e!Lotus (survived), v!Ashbringer, v!Archer, e!Lotus, v!Burnt, ?!Order (survived). Our differences in approaches haven't yielded much different results in terms of number of elims killed. Okay, so riddle me this: Why didn't they hit Devo last night, then try and get me shrekked?
Guest Breaker Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, James Brafin said: Okay, so riddle me this: Why didn't they hit Devo last night, then try and get me shrekked? It’s Shrekt, by the way.
Archer he/him Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, James Brafin said: Okay, so riddle me this: Why didn't they hit Devo last night, then try and get me shrekked? Good question. My best guess is because you are an elim and they want to keep you alive because you're largely trusted. My second best guess is that the two Greys both seemed less dangerous than Orlok (fear kill). My third best guess is they're RNGing these kills and I will scream if that's the answer.
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