Quick Fix Game 49: Chaos in Newcago

[Condensation she/her]

Wow, this started fast. Hi, Conn--Fritz here, sorry if I can't spend as much time on here as I'd like to. I'm currently in LG72 and trying to be really active so I don't have to read tons of backlog.  Then you add my RPs and get a recipe for... inactive Fritz, I guess.

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Wow, this started fast. Hi, Conn--Fritz here, sorry if I can't spend as much time on here as I'd like to. I'm currently in LG72 and trying to be really active so I don't have to read tons of backlog.  Then you add my RPs and get a recipe for... inactive Fritz, I guess.

It's fine--a lot of people in this game are also in LG72, so I suspect it won't be as active as QFs sometimes are

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

It's fine--a lot of people in this game are also in LG72, so I suspect it won't be as active as QFs sometimes are

Yeah, we can hope.

By the way, I'm letting Fritz take control here. He's pretty self-aware. Have fun! -Condensation

[Gears]

Sidenote: As you may or may not be aware, I have a strategy of claiming elim. This strategy has gotten me killed many times over, and I suspect that it has not been beneficial. However, now that I have been an elim once [in MR46], I am going to take this strategy in the direction I originally intended. I want to be able to both claim elim and not claim elim and have both be considered NAI. I don't know if this will actually help anything, but this is how I'm going to do it. This game, I am claiming elim. Typically, I would do it more subtly, but since the strategy itself is changing, I feel as though I should broadcast it. I will not always claim elim. The exact percentage of elim claiming remains to be seen, since I still need to figure things out. I hope that this does not get me lynched D1, but alas, changing a strategy tends to provoke a response.

The following is my analysis of the rules. [Sidenote, the rules are quite short this time.]

There are 12 villagers and 3 elims. The elims do not have a standard kill. Each cycle, the elims target a person to add them to the murder pool. Then they can kill them all a total of three times.

We start at 12-3. The only kill is the lynch. C2: 11-3, 1 in murder pool. C3: 10-3, 2 in murder pool. C4, 9-3, 3 in murder pool. C5, 8-3, 4 in murder pool, C6: 7-3, 5 in murder pool, kill them all, elims win. The elims can kill people at any time without harm, so we must lynch an elim within 6 cycles, preferably before C5 [LyLo]. Unfortunately, determining elims will have to happen through logic and reasoning. 

---

Mori knew that the group around them was suspect. Truly unfortunate, but it was good to be certain. That one's twitchy, they noted as they sped up their mind. Throwing accusations around. Or maybe that one...? Mori was being paranoid again. They were always paranoid, but it was especially bad. There were enemies in their midst, and they didn't know who. At least they had a bit of certainty. Three Reckoners among them. That certainty was what kept Mori sane. 

Sanity's overrated, they thought idly. Knowledge is better. And of course it was. Ignorance is not bliss. Knowledge is bliss. Knowledge is power. Scientia potentia est. They needed to know. They knew nothing. They would know. They watched the people dance around each other in twisting strands of conversation and gathered the knowledge that they needed. They needed to know.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Gears said:

We start at 12-3. The only kill is the lynch. C2: 11-3, 1 in murder pool. C3: 10-3, 2 in murder pool. C4, 9-3, 3 in murder pool. C5, 8-3, 4 in murder pool, C6: 7-3, 5 in murder pool, kill them all, elims win. The elims can kill people at any time without harm, so we must lynch an elim within 6 cycles, preferably before C5 [LyLo]. Unfortunately, determining elims will have to happen through logic and reasoning. 

This is mostly accurate, except that we may very well end up lynching one or more of the people they've already added to their murder pool at some point, which would set them back.

[---]

24 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

This is mostly accurate, except that we may very well end up lynching one or more of the people they've already added to their murder pool at some point, which would set them back.

I wouldnt be surprised if we just didnt. Last marson I played (though...nvm) we never hit one person that the elims doused.

EDIT: theyre going to be dousing the most village among us most likely, so the least likely to get voted out.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Archer he/him]

2 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

I gave an RP name to... but I don't think I'll actually RP so ig it doesn't rly matter. Uhhhh cool I have nothing to add to the discussion. Illwei is being Illwei, so for now I read that as village? I guess? lol I could be dead wrong though.

I am suspicious of any time someone says lol. It's a way to soften a sentence so you can play it off as not a full fledged accusation while still throwing shade. However, some people just like saying lol. So I'm watching you, but I'll let it slide. This time. lol

10 minutes ago, Gears said:

Unfortunately, determining elims will have to happen through logic and reasoning. 

You sound so disappointed about that.  I haven't read enough old games to tell if Illwei and Quinn are being honest about their analysis of each other's behavior. What I have gleaned however is that Gears genuinely does claim elim every time. Even so, at this point, speculation that they might be double-bluffing is better than random guessing. (Also, I'm hoping that given your strategy, Gears, you'll be less vindictive than anyone else will be if I vote for them. *puppy dog eyes*)

I believe that to win, we must vote each time and get lucky. Our odds are better than not that on third vote we will get a Reckoner. (First guess has 1/5 chance, second guess has 2/5 chance, third has 3/5 chance, which is better than half.) We can improve those odds through reasoned analysis. We also need everyone to vote, in order to provide some basis for that. I'm going to treat any speculation people make without voting as suspicious. The best Reckoner strategy would be to fly under the radar and let everyone pick each other off. Assuming the first vote is a cremshoot, they'll probably be able to avoid elimination for one or two more lynches by having a clean (non-existent or band wagony) voting record. The more we force people to defend themselves and take positions on lynches, the more we have to work off of. Eventually we'll accuse a Reckoner and we can judge people's reactions to that and crack this case wide open. So to promote this, from here on in I will at least be poke voting anyone who doesn't vote. If I think we've got the right choice for a lynch, I might switch, but that's my strategy for now. And wouldn't you know it, Gears hasn't voted yet, so my choice this round is doubly validated. (Sorry again.)

[---]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said:

I am suspicious of any time someone says lol. It's a way to soften a sentence. 

 I'm going to treat any speculation people make without voting as suspicious

I like these two things. Not necessary think they're village. But i like 'em :P. 

Definitely QFs are more casual, so the way Quinn's talkingshouldnt be that off-putting to me, because she's in the LG, but still i definitely see her being more serious as village. But again! It's a QF!

I think that i kinda agree with the second point, mostly because it is a QF and we only have 24 hours to talk. Theres no time for extremely deep conversation and flippy flopping between votes. 

[Flyingbooks]

42 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said:

Our odds are better than not that on third vote we will get a Reckoner. (First guess has 1/5 chance, second guess has 2/5 chance, third has 3/5 chance, which is better than half.)

I know I'm not in this game so I technically shouldn't post here, but my math brain is just hurting so much at this. If there are 3 reckoners, then the first vote will have a 1/5 (3/15) chance, the second will have a 3/14 chance, and the third will have a 3/13 chance if no Reckoners are caught.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Flyingbooks42

[Straw he/him]

2 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I know I'm not in this game so I technically shouldn't post here, but my math brain is just hurting so much at this. If there are 3 reckoners, then the first vote will have a 1/5 (3/15) chance, the second will have a 3/14 chance, and the third will have a 3/13 chance if no Reckoners are caught.

Please do not post in the thread if you are not playing, regardless of what's going on in the thread.

[Elandera she/her]

Hello. Here. Still trying to figure out RP character. Brain's stuck. 

2 hours ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

You are an epic, so as long as you are murdering lots of folks, you are probably doing something right .

Since we're murdering lots of folks... Araris. Gotta start somewhere.

[Condensation she/her]

Wait, what? Okay, readjusting to the QF. People are voting quickly is all, and I'm still on a rush from the LG.

[Archer he/him]

In response to the Sam Riegel-style pigeon coos from the audience, I retract my attempt at number crunching. The odds are apparently 3/15 in Round 1, 3/14 in R2, 3/13 in R3. That's about one in four and it doesn't get much better until we lose half our people to Reckoners kills. If they kill 3 at the end of R3, then it will be 3/10. That's still really lousy. 

I am now less optimistic about our chances but feel like I've learned a valuable lesson about game theory.

[---]

Just now, Ookla the Paradoxical said:

In response to the Sam Riegel-style pigeon coos from the audience, I retract my attempt at number crunching. The odds are apparently 3/15 in Round 1, 3/14 in R2, 3/13 in R3. That's about one in four and it doesn't get much better until we lose half our people to Reckoners kills. If they kill 3 at the end of R3, then it will be 3/10. That's still really lousy. 

The thing is, they can choose to not kill anyone until lylo, and then it really becomes a problem, because we won't be narrowing down the pool well enough. At least whoever we kill will be our kill and not theirs, imo. 

[Liranil she/her]

Just for a bit of clarification... What is lylo?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Lynch or Lose. It's the point where the village has to get every lynch right until the game ends. 

[Archer he/him]

Having recently read the SE Glossary, I had noticed that 'lylo' isn't in it, despite coming up a fair bit in discussion. I think that would be a helpful addition for someone like @Elbereth to please make 

here

[Liranil she/her]

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

Lynch or Lose. It's the point where the village has to get every lynch right until the game ends. 

Ah, makes sense! Thanks!

[A Joe in the Bush]

Haha, this is going it be fun to play, knowing so few of you. RP will be in italics.

13 hours ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

Guess I’ll vote on Joe. It’s been a while since I played a QF, so @ me if I’m not posting enough. The only thing I have to say about the rules is that LyLo will be C5 if we don’t get any elims before then, and they don’t research any players that get lynched. No point in telling the elims the optimal way to kill us all.

You're making me pretty angry there Max, accusing me for no good reason. Thanks! The angrier I get, the easier it will be to crush you! I'd love to accuse tyou back, but i've got someone else I'm even angrier at!

10 hours ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said:

<snip>

I believe that to win, we must vote each time and get lucky. Our odds are better than not that on third vote we will get a Reckoner. (First guess has 1/5 chance, second guess has 2/5 chance, third has 3/5 chance, which is better than half.) We can improve those odds through reasoned analysis. We also need everyone to vote, in order to provide some basis for that. I'm going to treat any speculation people make without voting as suspicious. The best Reckoner strategy would be to fly under the radar and let everyone pick each other off. Assuming the first vote is a cremshoot, they'll probably be able to avoid elimination for one or two more lynches by having a clean (non-existent or band wagony) voting record. The more we force people to defend themselves and take positions on lynches, the more we have to work off of. Eventually we'll accuse a Reckoner and we can judge people's reactions to that and crack this case wide open. So to promote this, from here on in I will at least be poke voting anyone who doesn't vote. If I think we've got the right choice for a lynch, I might switch, but that's my strategy for now. And wouldn't you know it, Gears hasn't voted yet, so my choice this round is doubly validated. (Sorry again.)

Ignoring you math, your point is still good! We need to get everyone riled up so they yell a lot and let their secrets slip! And everyone needs to do their part! Which is Why I'm so angry at Mori and Hypnolia! They're talking the talk, but they're not walking the walk! You two need to vote!

Liranil for posting but not voting. I'd vote for gears, but they already have a vote on them.

_-_-_-_-_- Vote Count -_-_-_-_-_

Quinn0928 (1): Ooklil' the Wei
A Joe in the Bush (1): Ookla the Araris Valerian
Ooklil' the Wei (1): Quinn0928
Gears (1): Ookla the Paradoxical
Ookla the Araris Valerian (1): Elandera
Liranil (1): A Joe in the Bush
 

People who have yet to post: (edited as Condensation apparently posted before this)
06. @Ookla the Shadowed (Experience)
10. @Lord_Silberfarben
12. @Somebody from Sel - Sal Cómin
13. @The Windrunner Supreme
14. @TJ Shade
15. @Vapor - Vanessa

Edited December 7, 2020 by A Joe in the Bush

[|TJ| he/him]

Shard ate my post so I'll be brief.

7 hours ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said:

In response to the Sam Riegel-style pigeon coos from the audience, I retract my attempt at number crunching. The odds are apparently 3/15 in Round 1, 3/14 in R2, 3/13 in R3. That's about one in four and it doesn't get much better until we lose half our people to Reckoners kills. If they kill 3 at the end of R3, then it will be 3/10. That's still really lousy. 

Probability would only matter is we voted randomly. We don't. We give weightage to the what people said, and how they voted and the like. Even meta plays a part too. So while C1 is probably closer to random voting, as the game progresses further, we voting is less and less random. 

Illwei, the law of averages does not apply to me. I'm above all that.  Besides, I recall you telling that I'd be a helpful villager, so I feel your vote on me was weird, because it's like the first thing you did. And I'm confused that you did it in this game but not the one that started two days ago, which means something has changed. Also, the fact that you said you're gonna stick with Quinn till the end. Illwei

Quinn's post is hedgy. And I know Quinn says she's not confident in her reads, but I've not seen hedgy posts from her before. Her reply to Illwei though, does seem villager-y. 

Illwei and Quinn have been the oddest of the bunch, with Illwei more suspicious. Gut elim read on Elandera.

@A Joe in the Bush, Condensation has posted too. She'd also fall in the category of not talking the talk.

[A Joe in the Bush]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

@A Joe in the Bush, Condensation has posted too. She'd also fall in the category of not talking the talk.

Mistakes like this make me even angrier!

Fixed in the list. I'm not going to keep that poat up to date though, so if people could periodically post their own vote counts, that'd be nice.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Illwei, the law of averages does not apply to me. I'm above all that.  Besides, I recall you telling that I'd be a helpful villager, so I feel your vote on me was weird, because it's like the first thing you did. And I'm confused that you did it in this game but not the one that started two days ago, which means something has changed. Also, the fact that you said you're gonna stick with Quinn till the end. Illwei

Quinn's post is hedgy. And I know Quinn says she's not confident in her reads, but I've not seen hedgy posts from her before. Her reply to Illwei though, does seem villager-y. 

Illwei and Quinn have been the oddest of the bunch, with Illwei more suspicious. Gut elim read on Elandera.

Yeah, Illwei also knows that it's not weird for me to read her as village... and I still don't know how I've managed to come off as not hedgy--I've kind of assumed that everyone read my posts with the subtext "but I could be dead wrong" since I am dead wrong so much of the time (The number of times I've brought up the events of MR46 in the past few days is astounding, but: MR46). 

[---]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

And I'm confused that you did it in this game but not the one that started two days ago, which means something has changed. Also, the fact that you said you're gonna stick with Quinn till the end.

Aha, see, this is a QF, that is a LG. very different. I think in LGs. I don't wanna think. It's been like, 15 games or something, and no Elim yet? I don't trust that, but it was mostly a joke, because...theres....it's C1. Like- It's C1. that's it. and it was the first post of C1 :P. 

10 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Yeah, Illwei also knows that it's not weird for me to read her as village

no. no no no. You reading me village is strange. Makes no sense for Elim I guess, as I am an Easy vote target, but in the past two games we played you said I was suspicious, even when you were an Elim. that doesn't seem like reading me village to me. 

[Quintessential she/her]

4 hours ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Aha, see, this is a QF, that is a LG. very different. I think in LGs. I don't wanna think. It's been like, 15 games or something, and no Elim yet? I don't trust that, but it was mostly a joke, because...theres....it's C1. Like- It's C1. that's it. and it was the first post of C1 :P. 

no. no no no. You reading me village is strange. Makes no sense for Elim I guess, as I am an Easy vote target, but in the past two games we played you said I was suspicious, even when you were an Elim. that doesn't seem like reading me village to me. 

Yes, and both times I was wrong. I still thought you were sus at the beginning of the game (and at the beginning of the LG) but I've come to associate that with village!Illwei--and also, Edit: redacted because it has to do with a current game

Edited December 7, 2020 by Quinn0928

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I don't trust that, but it was mostly a joke, because...theres....it's C1. Like- It's C1. that's it. and it was the first post of C1 :P. 

I'm soo confused. What does this mean, Illwei? xD