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Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey


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13 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

That's quite valid. Do you not have a better candidate for lynch than this person? You seem quite sure that this person is elim to be considering lynching them despite the loss of PMs. You could be building up a reason right now so we might not blame you if that person does end up getting lynched. 

That wasn't my only reason though. I've mentioned my hunch that one or both of you and Araris might be elims, and despite me falling for it, the case you built for Elandera was a little too perfect in retrospect. Like the case was constructed, not just found. I'm not sure if I'm making sense here :P but that's how I feel. 

Also, I'm still suspicious of Mist, and your defence of her on D1 felt off. And her vote on Illwei didn't help things either because Illwei is one of my village reads (bar paranoia, that is). 

@The Windrunner Supreme, can you vote on someone other than your sibling? xD I maybe only half kidding though, because it's the third cycle, and you've got to have more than Experience right? This behavior is too weird to be suspicious, but it definitely doesn't help us, so you go in my suspect book.

@Shard of Reading, @Mist, @Danex, @Vapor, @Ashbringer, @Wind - thoughts on your suspect list? 

At the moment, I don't have a better "candidate," which is why I'm reaching out before I act rashly. I am interested in pursuing other suspects, hence my voting of Elandera the previous day. The fact that I was wrong there is one of the contributing factors to me wanting to figure out this particular Surgebinder's alignment. If I had nefarious intentions, surely I would act more decisively.

Your being suspicious of Araris is valid. My post regarding Elandera was not constructed, however. My initial vote of her had been based on pure instincts, as you can see when posted shortly after her post was made. I intentionally didn't push the lynch further after presenting my case, hoping to see who would inquire and taking note of anyone that jumped on that wagon or others.

I hesitate to think of my comments about Mist to be a defense. I genuinely don't believe the post she made about roles indicates her alignment, and that lynching her for it will discourage villagers from making whatever small contributions they can. If you have other reasons to suspect Mist, I would love to hear them because I have no compunctions about lynching them.

Edited by Amanuensis
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44 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

That's quite valid. Do you not have a better candidate for lynch than this person? You seem quite sure that this person is elim to be considering lynching them despite the loss of PMs. You could be building up a reason right now so we might not blame you if that person does end up getting lynched. 

That wasn't my only reason though. I've mentioned my hunch that one or both of you and Araris might be elims, and despite me falling for it, the case you built for Elandera was a little too perfect in retrospect. Like the case was constructed, not just found. I'm not sure if I'm making sense here :P but that's how I feel. 

Also, I'm still suspicious of Mist, and your defence of her on D1 felt off. And her vote on Illwei didn't help things either because Illwei is one of my village reads (bar paranoia, that is). 

@The Windrunner Supreme, can you vote on someone other than your sibling? xD I maybe only half kidding though, because it's the third cycle, and you've got to have more than Experience right? This behavior is too weird to be suspicious, but it definitely doesn't help us, so you go in my suspect book.

@Shard of Reading, @Mist, @Danex, @Vapor, @Ashbringer, @Wind - thoughts on your suspect list? 

Uh... I don't think Connie's a villager. I don't really have much suspicion of anybody yet.

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1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

That's quite valid. Do you not have a better candidate for lynch than this person? You seem quite sure that this person is elim to be considering lynching them despite the loss of PMs. You could be building up a reason right now so we might not blame you if that person does end up getting lynched. 

That wasn't my only reason though. I've mentioned my hunch that one or both of you and Araris might be elims, and despite me falling for it, the case you built for Elandera was a little too perfect in retrospect. Like the case was constructed, not just found. I'm not sure if I'm making sense here :P but that's how I feel. 

Also, I'm still suspicious of Mist, and your defence of her on D1 felt off. And her vote on Illwei didn't help things either because Illwei is one of my village reads (bar paranoia, that is). 

@The Windrunner Supreme, can you vote on someone other than your sibling? xD I maybe only half kidding though, because it's the third cycle, and you've got to have more than Experience right? This behavior is too weird to be suspicious, but it definitely doesn't help us, so you go in my suspect book.

@Shard of Reading, @Mist, @Danex, @Vapor, @Ashbringer, @Wind - thoughts on your suspect list? 

I don't really have much of a suspect list. I'm finding it really hard to find people suspicious.

I guess that people I trust are Amanaus, Windrunner supreme, (Though can you please actually vote for someone besides Experince) Vapor, Wind, and honestly just about everyone who is playing the game. I know it's not much and there are some people I'm on the fence about.

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9 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

I don't really have much of a suspect list. I'm finding it really hard to find people suspicious.

I guess that people I trust are Amanaus, Windrunner supreme, (Though can you please actually vote for someone besides Experince) Vapor, Wind, and honestly just about everyone who is playing the game. I know it's not much and there are some people I'm on the fence about.

It doesn't help my suspicion on you that you just called out two of my suspicions as two of your top trusts.

Unless there's something going on behind the scenes, i see no real reason to trust Supreme. I do kind of see his continued vote on Experience to be suspicious, even if he is a new player.

How can you not have any suspicions? Can you at least talk about the people who you are on the fence about? I would think that you'd either have atleast a slight elim read on Elk, me, turtle, connie, etc. 

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1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

At the moment, I don't have a better "candidate," which is why I'm reaching out before I act rashly. I am interested in pursuing other suspects, hence my voting of Elandera the previous day. The fact that I was wrong there is one of the contributing factors to me wanting to figure out this particular Surgebinder's alignment. If I had nefarious intentions, surely I would act more decisively.

You were suspicious of the Surgebinder before the beginning of D2? Interesting...

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I hesitate to think of my comments about Mist to be a defense. I genuinely don't believe the post she made about roles indicates her alignment, and that lynching her for it will discourage villagers from making whatever small contributions they can. If you have other reasons to suspect Mist, I would love to hear them because I have no compunctions about lynching them.

Like I said, it's not the post itself, but the wording that ticked me off. And no, I don't have reasons other a few places here and there where Mist doesn't quite commit to a single thing like: 

Quote

You panicked a lot with one vote on you, which could be new player panic or new elim panic, either is possible, IMO.

and

Quote

I'm thinking Connie is a new player but village, but I'm confused enough that it could be that she's elim.

But I don't know. I feel like I'm reaching and tunneling because of bad first impression.

1 hour ago, Vapor said:

I don't really have much suspicion of anybody yet.

53 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

I don't really have much of a suspect list. I'm finding it really hard to find people suspicious.

Bahh, why is everyone doing this? How am I supposed to increase my suspect pool if you guys aren't stating your suspects? :P Tiny bit suspicious of Elkanah's vote shift in the end. Did he feel that his vote on Elandera would be seen as bandwagon-y after her she would flip as village?

Aman. Shard of Reading

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12 hours ago, Illwei said:

Aaaah, so these were not rhetorical questions :P.

Also, why wouldn't the elims kill you if they knew you know the info about all Hemalurgists?

 - Maybe they'd think that they could pocket me and make me give up my info. I- I mean it's not that hard. Probably already did. 

 Like would they hope that you'd give them the info?

 - As I said, not that hard to pocket me. Pockets are very comfortable: offer me a snack or hot chocolate and I'll never leave.

Why would they think that, if you're village?

 - Dangit TJ, my ingenious idea of trying to convince everyone that I am the HI is foiled now that I'm answering all of this. They didn't know that I was village before. I mean, would a villager go through all this trouble to try and figure out who the Hemalurgists are? what are the benefits to town?

Of course they'd know you wouldn't tell it, so you they'd have no problem killing you.

 - They wouldn't know that I wouldn't tell it. See point number 1

----

Oaky, Oaky. 

I'd like a show of hands among you. How many people think I am a hemalurgist? 

*raises hand*

1 hour ago, Vapor said:

Uh... I don't think Connie's a villager. I don't really have much suspicion of anybody yet.

She keeps saying that, but she/you don't have much reasoning.

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Just a quick note that I've been reading along in the thread throughout today, but didn't have time to analyze much nor write anything up. I have to head to bed for the night, but hoping to get to this tomorrow morning. I like that a few more people are getting involved now.

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30 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Just a quick note that I've been reading along in the thread throughout today, but didn't have time to analyze much nor write anything up. I have to head to bed for the night, but hoping to get to this tomorrow morning. I like that a few more people are getting involved now.

Good night! Sleep well, and it's cool that you're in a far different time zone from me!

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1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Bahh, why is everyone doing this? How am I supposed to increase my suspect pool if you guys aren't stating your suspects? :P Tiny bit suspicious of Elkanah's vote shift in the end. Did he feel that his vote on Elandera would be seen as bandwagon-y after her she would flip as village?

No, it was because I was hoping for a counterswing against the Elandera lynch. There hadn't been one yet and I thought switching to Turtle would have put the votes at Elandera (4) Turtle (3). I was operating off of outdated information and probably too late to catch anyone trying to save her anyway. That was my goal with the late switch

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3 hours ago, Elkanah said:

No, it was because I was hoping for a counterswing against the Elandera lynch. There hadn't been one yet and I thought switching to Turtle would have put the votes at Elandera (4) Turtle (3). I was operating off of outdated information and probably too late to catch anyone trying to save her anyway. That was my goal with the late switch

Sorry for the formatting- I’m on mobile.

You chose one of the people who defended Elandera for your counter swing? 

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15 minutes ago, eltruT said:

Sorry for the formatting- I’m on mobile.

You chose one of the people who defended Elandera for your counter swing? 

Serendipitously, yes.

I voted for you because I have been suspicious of you for most of the game, I thought my vote would present the opportunity to catch an elim protecting Elandera, and I would have read the protection of Elandera as an elim thing to do.

I realize that since she was village none of those things were accomplished. 

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Okay, seeing as it's really quiet here's my "gut" reads so far. I'll post it again once I can look through the rest of the threads more and will adjust as necessary.

Edit: By "post again", I mean "post again with reasons for what I'm saying".

 

Village: Illwei, TJ Shade 

Mild Village: Aman, Whysper, Mist

Very Mild Village (Odd-but-good): Elkanah, Araris, Devotary

Null: Silber, Lotus, Wind, Windrunner Supreme (for activity); Vapor, Reading, Danex (nothing's stuck out), Turtle (for other reasons). Will look at the last 4 more.

Very Mild Elim (Odd-and-not-good): Condensation, Books

Mild Elim: NA

Elim: NA

Edited by Ashbringer
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Well, here I am. Here is the reason I haven't posted very much. I'm going through and doing a post by post analysis of everything. I just finished day 1, so here it is folks! I'm voting on turtle. Reasons below. Note: I have only read the first day, so I don't have all information. If I'm missing something big let me know. I do know who has died though. Spoilered for extreme longness. 

Spoiler

Vapor: Slight Village, not much to go off of.

  1. NAI about activity

  2. NAI

  3. NAI

  4. Poke on Mist

  5. Takes vote off Mist

  6. NAI

  7. Thinks mist vote is odd. Slight suspicion of turtle. 

 

Condensation: Village feel, but they are new, so I'm open to changing if people think that is completely off.

  1. NAI new-player help

  2. NAI

  3. NAI about there being at least one traitor

  4. Pokes Danex

  5. Takes away vote on Danex

  6. NAI

  7. NAI

  8. NAI

  9. NAI

  10. Claims loyal. NAI

  11. NAI

  12. A lot of conversation with wind, makes a lot of NAI for both. 

  13. NAI

  14. Claims not-elim. NAI

  15. NAI

  16. NAI

  17. NAI

  18. RP

  19. NAI

  20. Offers to summon silber every so often. Village thing to do.

  21. Asks what pocketing is. Village.

  22. NAI

  23. NAI

  24. NAI. RP.

  25. NAI

  26. Doesn’t know who to vote for. Slightly-village, or new player. Not sure which. 

  27. NAI

  28. NAI

  29. NAI

  30. Slight-maybe-not really sus on turtle. Slightish village.

  31. NAI

  32. Talk about hemalurgist. Slightish village.

  33. NAI

  34. NAI

  35. Takes away vote on danex(again)

  36. Villagery questions

  37. NAI

  38. NAI

  39. Slight-maybe-not-sus about mist.

  40. Village vibe. 

  41. NAI

 

Elkanah: Slight Elim

  1. Poke on Supreme

  2. NAI 

  3. Says people shouldn’t reveal roles. At least not in thread. 

  4. Takes vote off of Supreme. Hmmmm. I dunno. Maybe-possibly-slight-ish-elim-vibes.

  5. Back to neutral feel. 

  6. Thinks that turtle is bad. And if turtle is bad connie is as well.

  7. Says sus on turtle, but doesn’t vote on them. Thinks Whysper is village. 

 

Mist: Not sure. Neutral with slightish elim lean.

  1. Role analysis -- NAI, elim count analysis says probably 4 or 5. Most very likely NAI

  2. NAI 

  3. Votes on turtle for poking after already done 2 posts. NAI reads on Ash, Elk, and Danex.

  4. RP

  5. RP

  6. RP

  7. RP

  8. Only village hemalurgist need to die for HI thing to happen. RP.

  9. RP

  10. RP

  11. Quotes rule about HI.

  12. NAI

  13. NAI

  14. NAI

  15. NAI

  16. Takes vote off of turtle because jumping around is villagery(?)

  17. NAI

  18. NAI

 

Danex: Ummm.... ya. Nothing.

  1. NAI new-player help

  2. NAI

 

Turtle: ELIM! I really have no idea why they are still alive!? Were they just forgotten?

  1. Pokes mist probably NAI, though there was already a poke on mist at this time

  2. Most likely NAI about their first game non-elim. Takes vote off of mist.

  3. NAI joke

  4. NAI

  5. Votes on mist because HI wants to accuse a bunch of people. Slight sus because of this.

  6. Thinks mist is HI. Claims regular loyal.

  7. Says is getting bad vibes from mist. Possible illwei-turtle elim?

  8. NAI

  9. NAI talk about HI. Pokes reading without voting.

  10. Takes vote off of Mist.

  11. NAI

  12. NAI

  13. NAI, though am starting to get slight elim gut read from them. 

  14. NAI, but back to neutral read. 

  15. NAI

  16. NAI

  17. Shouldn’t kill HI. 

  18. Asks for vote count.

  19. NAI

  20. Votes mist based on gut, and possible reasons.

  21. NAI

  22. Says they are village because they claimed. -_- Soooo much elim vibes right there.

  23. NAI

  24. NAI

  25. NAI

  26. Asks for reasoning that Aman voted elk instead of mist. Possible Turtle/Mist elim team.

  27. Agrees on vote on elk, but not enough to switch from mist. -_-

  28. NAI

  29. Takes vote off of mist again. ALARM BELLS. How are you not lynched yet?!

  30. Ya… Really feels like an elim trying to survive really badly. 

  31. Ahhhh. New player. That’s why you aren’t dead yet.

  32. Possible (accidental?) pocketing of connie?

  33. NAI

  34. Slightish not really elim because jokes about everyone stopping posting so they can sleep. I dunno. Probably nothing. 

  35. NAI

  36. Vote count.

  37. Thinks that ventyl is weird, but doesn’t do anything about it.

  38. Ack. I’m starting to think maybe not elim? I dunno. Still strongest elim read so far though.

  39. Votes on Ventyl. ????

 

Ashbringer: Ya... I got nothing. 

  1. NAI about inactivity

  2. RP

  3. NAI

  4. NAI

 

Gears: Dead.

  1. Role analysis. Pretty NAI, though if there is an elim surgbinder very slightish suspicion. RP

  2. NAI asking for suspicions of people. RP.

 

Illwei: I'm 99.9999999% sure your the HI Illwei. Especially because you survived that attack, though I don't know what happened could be a WGG, though not very likely.

  1. Votes and unvotes Matrim. Somewhat same suspicions of turtle as mist. Votes on gears for not claiming elim. 

  2. Takes vote off of gears because they said stuff in RP. Votes on mist.

  3. Asks turtle why they voted on mist. Sus if mist is elim. 

  4. Tells people not to claim, thinks connie and mist might be elim. If mist is elim, even more likely illwei is elim.

  5. Thinks HI is in hemalurgist doc. Possibly HI.

  6. Elims want HI to die. Ya… feeling HI here.

  7. More talk about hemalurgist doc. I think HI. 

  8. Village-ish feel on turtle. Doesn’t like poke votes.

  9. “Just” read that HI isn’t in doc. HI, or maybe elim spreading chaos?

  10. More talk about HI. Getting not-village vibes from this post. 

  11. NAI

  12. NAI

  13. Says that Gears vote was a complete joke. -_-

  14. NAI

  15. Even MORE talk about HI. 

  16. NAI

  17. Talk about HI.

  18. Would like to beat the elims to finding the HI. (How does that work? If they are attacked, everyone sees them survive…)

  19. Doesn’t want HI to die. I wonder why? :P

  20. Tags me. 

  21. Not-village vibes.

  22. NAI

  23. Gets Experience reference. NAI.

  24. NAI

  25. Suspicion on Elk.

  26. NAI

  27. Gives reads on everyone. Not going to put everything. Heres the link if you want to see it. LINK It’s the second last post on that page. But it has only null reads so not that helpful…

  28. NAI

  29. Votes Elkanah because… they were using a spreadsheet?

  30. Thinks whysper is village. 

  31. Takes vote off elkanah and puts on mist. 

  32. Reasoning why Mist is sus-ish. 

  33. Points out that ventyls vote makes no sense if they think elk is HI.

  34. Quotes a bunch of mists/turtles/elks posts/votes. 

  35. Changes vote from mist to ventyl. Tags everyone (I think it’s everyone)

  36. Quotes post that shows why they think ventyl is sus. 

  37. NAI

  38. NAI

  39. Doesn’t like how ventyl is going for HI. I wonder why? :P

  40. NAI

 

Flyingbrooks: Nothing

  1. NAI new post

 

Wind: Nothing

  1. NAI

  2. NAI

  3. NAI

  4. NAI claim about being a windrunner

  5. NAI question about RP

  6. RP

  7. RP

  8. RP

  9. RP

  10. RP

  11. RP

  12. RP

 

Whysper: Strongest Village Read.

  1. NAI

  2. Slightish-not-really village post about poke votes.

  3. Brings up that HI is most likely not hemalurgist, because then they couldn’t die. 

  4. Village feel on silber. 

  5. NAI

  6. NAI

  7. NAI

  8. NAI

  9. NAI

  10. Thinks should attack HI early on. Says that elims should be first priority.

  11. Village read. Gives info that hurts elim a bit too much to be elim imo. 

  12. Points out that HI becomes jester when they can die. Ya. I’m 90% sure they are village based on everything so far. 

  13. More village vibes.

  14. Votes on Elkanah. 

  15. More reasoning on vote for elkanah. 

  16. Even more reasoning for voting Elk. 

  17. Slight elim feel on turtle? More village vibes. 

  18. NAI

 

Ventyl: Dead

  1. RP. Pokes Devo. NAI Activity stuff.

  2. NAI help.

  3. NAI

  4. Kind of wants to vote on Elk, but is waiting for devo to respond to his earlier vote.

  5. Takes vote off of devo. Thinks elk is HI so votes on them. Thinks turtle might be elim. RP.

 

Devo: Slight villagish

  1. RP. Doesn’t think HI is in hemalurgist doc. Most likely not HI.

  2. More about not thinking HI should be attacked. Neutral vibes.

  3. RP

  4. Vote count

  5. Thinks ventyl and elk are sus, votes ventyl. 

 

Araris: Slight Villageish. I dunno though...

  1. Gives vote count. Votes on Illwei b/c of vote on gears. Slight village read on turtle. RP.

  2. Thinks that Shade probably isn’t elim. 

  3. Doesn’t think we can/should try to find HI through lynch. 

  4. That actually claiming vanilla village just helps elims more. (aimed at turtle)

  5. Votes on elkanah. Takes vote off illwei. 

 

Straw: GM

  1. Confirms that HI doesn’t have access to doc unless they are hemalurgist. (Just realized that straw is the GM lol)

  2. Vote count.

  3. Another Vote count. Thanks. 

  4. Turn over!

 

Silber: Nothing

  1. NAI

 

Shade: Slight elim because of the last post.

  1. NAI

  2. Thinks there is a possible Mist/Vapor elim team.

  3. NAI talk about HI

  4. Says shouldn’t vote on HI. Village read on Illwei, danex, gut elim on devo. 

  5. Votes on Mist. Doesn’t want to vote on HI. 

  6. NAI

  7. Suspicions on turtle.

  8. Votes turtle and not mist. We might want to check everyone who switched from mist to turtle. 

  9. Says turtle is sus, but says will drop it because others did. Precede to change vote from turtle to ventyl. -_- Sus. 

 

Supreme: Well... I dunno. Slight elim no really?

  1. NAI

  2. Votes on me. Elim.

 

Matrim: Other GM!

  1. NAI. Wait. He’s running this game lol. 

  2. Gives vote count. Thank you. 

 

Amanuensis: I honestly have no idea. I've never played a game with them.

  1. NAI

  2. Votes on Elkanah.

  3. Gives Vote count. Doesn’t like how many votes are on mist.

  4. NAI

  5. Thinks mist is not necessarily bad. Thinks turtle and elk are suspicious. 

 

Reading: Village. I think second after Whysper.

  1. Thinks Connie is village. NAI until one of them two die. 

  2. NAI

  3. Don’t want to kill HI, because goes to lylo

  4. Thinks there is at least 1 elim hemalurgist. And more than 2 hemalurgists in all.

  5. NAI

  6. NAI about hemalurgist doc. 

  7. Gut village on turtle. Doesn’t understand votes on elk. 

  8. Would rather not vote than vote off of what others are saying. Slight village feel. 

 

Elandera: Dead

  1. NAI

  2. Doesn’t like votes on both mist and elk

  3. I dunno. Not NAI, but I can’t get a read out of it. 

  4. Thinks mist is not a good vote option, is defending it. 

EDIT:
Wow. That's long. Also, Illwei, Turtle, and Connie have over a page in google docs worth of my analysis.

Edited by Experience
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56 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Okay, seeing as it's really quiet here's my "gut" reads so far. I'll post it again once I can look through the rest of the threads more and will adjust as necessary.

Edit: By "post again", I mean "post again with reasons for what I'm saying".

 

Village: Illwei, TJ Shade 

Mild Village: Aman, Whysper, Mist

Very Mild Village (Odd-but-good): Elkanah, Araris, Devotary

Null: Silber, Lotus, Wind, Windrunner Supreme (for activity); Vapor, Reading, Danex (nothing's stuck out), Turtle (for other reasons). Will look at the last 4 more.

Very Mild Elim (Odd-and-not-good): Condensation, Books

Mild Elim: NA

Elim: NA

I had no idea you thought I wasn’t not suspicious! It’s good to know. I can reveal my role if that would make me less suspicious to all of you?

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@Ashbringer what about books makes you think they're an Elim? 

@Experience i see you marking posts NAI or summarizing them, but not which way they lean. So- kinda confused about how you ended up with Turtle = Elim

@Flyingbooks42 kinda a hard question I guess, but in what way does Experience's analysis agree with you? 

@Wind please do not reveal your role. 

Edited by Illwei
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51 minutes ago, Wind said:

I had no idea you thought I wasn’t not suspicious! It’s good to know. I can reveal my role if that would make me less suspicious to all of you?

Er... no, please don't do that.

My main reason for marking you Null is that I haven't seen you posting as much game-related content. I could just be blind, but there's not much to get a read off of. 

50 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Ashbringer what about books makes you think they're an Elim? 

@Experience i see you marking posts NAI or summarizing them, but not which way they lean. So- kinda confused about how you ended up with Turtle = Elim

@Flyingbooks42 kinda a hard question I guess, but in what way does Experience's analysis agree with you? 

@Wind please do not reveal your role. 

Experience! I was forgetting someone. Consider yourself Null.

As for why Books... er... almost for the reason you said.

Before N2, Books made two posts. One of which contained a vote, on Elandra, adding to the Elandra bandwagon without adding any reasoning besides "the arguments for Elandra being an Elim seem pretty good". I haven't seen low activity but voting from anyone but Silber in the late game before, but he's done that as both Elim and Villager. Books doing it here feels like piggybacking other peoples' arguments to get votes out and therefore focus a lynch.

... and now Books just did something very similar to vote on Turtle. 

Could just be a new-player thing, especially with relatively few votes cast. But it's enough for me to question it.

 

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