Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

47 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

[Devotary] any reason why you did not vote? 

I thought my vote would be worse than chance/wanted to see if any vote manipulators intervened to save either you or Striker. Usually elims won't hesitate to use vote manip to save someone at v/v, but I thought it would be different in this game with limited resources. 

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

12 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

That's going a bit far. Maybe step back and remember that this is only a game? Ventyl is allowed to protect themself and try to stay alive instead of going for the optimal village move.

Honestly at this point, I think Ventyl has done brilliantly. Assuming they're a villager Knight, the Elims aren't going to kill them. There's too little/much information about whether or not Ventyl is actually killable. The Elims are much more likely to target someone else and leave them alive for a while. It's better to go for a sure kill than a potentially blocked kill.

If they're an Elim, which I straight up do not believe is possible, then they have done a brilliant job in pretending othewise, to the point where I'm willing to defind them and makes sure someone else get's lynched.

Frankly, I think we should just ignore the Ventyl stuff for now and focus elsewhere.

 

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My vote on Striker wasn’t just based on TJ. I would’ve been fine with a tie, though I preferred Striker over TJ so I voted Striker as my strongest elim suspect.

I agree leaving Ventyl alone is the best idea for now. At this point, so many people have told him to stop claiming things that him letting a surge slip was most likely purposeful, either to get us to focus on him, or... I dunno. He wants us to talk about him. I can’t really see why village!Ventyl would care about that. If someone would alignment scan him, that would be appreciated.

These posts give me waaay too much credit.  It was intentional for the reason Joe gave, but I really did it just to get reactions out of people. Though part of the plan isn’t working... but I did spark a lot of conversation. if I don’t die tonight from a Gravitation boosted kill. Then everything will be very nice! Hopefully...

Anyways, right now, my elim reads are on Gears and Elbereth. I can’t really give TJ an elim read after they did the same thing I’ve done, no can I? Elbereth is more of a gut read, she has just seemed a little suspicious to me all around. Gears however... In LG66, I said that I think that whoever gives useful advice or creates discussion to the village, is probably village. Well so far, Gears hasn’t really done anything but game analysis and tunnel on me. Now this could easily be new player syndrome, but I don’t think it is. 

12 hours ago, Gears said:

I would like to apologize to Ventyl. I have behaved in a manner that does not reflect the trivial nature of games. I shall attempt to move on from the Ventyl discussion as it really doesn't matter what they do, since the only way to verify their actions is to risk the life of someone else. For now, we should be attempting to find alternative lynch candidates. I can't think of any, sadly. Does anyone else have any major suspicions that do not include Ventyl, TJ, or Sart [my current "don't want to lynch" list]?

This post is the main reason for my suspicions. Although he’s defending me, which I don’t mind because I’d not like to die, he starts doing it way too quick after previously tunneling me. This seems a lot like an elim who after they see that the lynch on me is dying down, realizes that they should go along with what the village is doing. Along with the fact that Striker’s vote on Gears could have easily been elim distancing, this is what gives me a lot of elim vibes from them.

EDIT: The one flaw in this is that they let the tie on Striker happen. Though, this could be elim Knight!Gears and other elims basically saying they don’t need roleless person. That’s just me tinfoiling, but it could be something to look into if anyone role scans Gears and they come up as a Knight. Though, an alignment scan would probably be easier anyway.

Edited July 4, 2020 by Ventyl

[Gears]

12 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

EDIT: The one flaw in this is that they let the tie on Striker happen. Though, this could be elim Knight!Gears and other elims basically saying they don’t need roleless person. That’s just me tinfoiling, but it could be something to look into if anyone role scans Gears and they come up as a Knight. Though, an alignment scan would probably be easier anyway.

If I was an elim, wouldn't I keep my vote on Striker to gain some credit in the eyes of the village? My retraction to maintain the tie has brought suspicion upon me, and thus if I was an elim, retracting Striker was a strictly sub-optimal play, especially since TJ claimed Bondsmith well before the end of the turn.

[Ashbringer he/him]

55 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Ashbringer: Very much get the feel like he's posting to not appear as lying low. I don't feel like he's actually making valid contribution towards lynch discussion, and he did not vote. I remember only one read post with 3 players. Mild elim.

16 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Especially since Striker flipped Elim, I’m more inclined to believe the second, but I don’t think we should full clear TJ yet, as I could see the Elims bussing a roleless to save a Radiant. (And I kinda would love to see what an Evil!Bondsmith would be like in general...)

Explain how the bussing would go please. Refer to my defence in the previous post for why such a buss would be impossible as there was another non-elim(according to you), candidate (Ventyl).

First, I was out golfing with my family for the hour before reset, so I missed a lot of the last-minute changes, and I didn’t have time to create a good read sense to place a vote, especially with Ventyl and your half-claims. Reset’s at 10AM for me, so I had to write that post fairly early and on mobile. Not really an excuse, but at least a reason.

Secondly, I haven’t cleared Ventyl yet. I have no idea what he’s doing, but it appears to be very similar to what Elim!Ventyl did to me (and Matrim) in LG66. I think he’s being suspicious, it just seems like he’s too suspicious.

I’d rather think that both Ventyl and TJ are Village, but I can’t just discount other possibilities.

 

Here’s what I think the “bussing” would go. Village!Ventyl (likely a Radiant), Elim!Striker (roleless), Elim!TJ (Radiant). The Elims don’t want to lose anyone D1, but they really don’t want to lose a Radiant (TJ). That leaves them two choices from how the Village votes fell: vote and vote manip until Ventyl is lynched, or bus Striker.

If Ventyl got lynched and flipped Village, the vote manip/trains would show the lynch moving away from both Striker AND TJ, especially if you both joined the lynch-Ventyl train. Meaning you would both be alive, but under suspicion, where the Elims risk losing a Radiant to the next lynch.

But if Striker got lynched and flipped Elim,  then the only vote manip present is you (apparently) saving yourself and getting an Elim lynched. Doing that partially clears you, and suspicion falls, as it did, on the most suspicious remaining person: Ventyl.

Not to mention the possibility that Ventyl is also an Elim Radiant, in which case the Elims bussed Striker to save their Radiants.

As I said, I don’t believe it and I don’t want to believe it. You as a Village Bondsmith makes the most sense. But I can’t discount the possibility you’re not.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

16 minutes ago, Gears said:

If I was an elim, wouldn't I keep my vote on Striker to gain some credit in the eyes of the village? My retraction to maintain the tie has brought suspicion upon me, and thus if I was an elim, retracting Striker was a strictly sub-optimal play, especially since TJ claimed Bondsmith well before the end of the turn.

I think either way could indicate elim!Gears. If you weren’t active when TJ claimed then you couldn’t have changed your vote. So you would’ve thought that the tie would still be happening. Though, if you are village, I don’t think retracting your vote was a bad play at all. At the time there was suspicions on both TJ and Stiker, so instead of trying to figure out which one is an elim (if the both aren’t elims, which no one seems to think is possible), you leave it up to the RNG.

In all honesty, I think that the next lynch target should be TJ. No one seems to consider that their elim!Bondsmith who saved themselves. Or that their is another elim!Bondsmith and TJ is a Knight just not a Bondsmith that the elims wanted to save. And if they are willing to go through this much trouble for it, he’s probably a valuable elim role. For instance he could be a Windrunner. He could also be an Edgedancer or Truthwatcher, and they don’t want to lose their protection role.

So I think the best courses of action right now are either we lynch TJ tomorrow. Or, the village!Skybreaker or Dustbringers kills TJ tonight. Perhaps both to be safe if the have a Knight with Progression.

 

EDIT: ninja’d by Ashbringer, who said what I meant way better than I did 

Edited July 4, 2020 by Ventyl

[Ashbringer he/him]

Wait. I don’t want to kill TJ. I just still suspect him.

[Gears]

As it stands, TJ is out of Stormlight, so he is harmless until the next highstorm [D4]. As such I think we can hold off on killing him until we have run out of other suspects. Do we have any other suspects?

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’ll see if I can build off my original read post.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Wait. I don’t want to kill TJ. I just still suspect him.

I think if we do, it would give a lot of information. For instance, if he flips elim then it probably clears Gears. If he doesn’t then I get lynched anyways. If he flips elim!Bondsmith then the elims have probably lost their main source of vote/action manipulation. If he flips elim, but not Bondsmith, then we know that the elims have some sort of vote manipulation. If flips elim!Truthwatcher/Edgedancer then we get rid their protection, because I doubt they have two. If he flips elim!Windrunner, then they no longer have Gravitation, which basically means we win (Assuming he doesn’t Squire, or if he does, they don’t get Gravitation). If he flips village as any of these roles, then we are in trouble, but the game isn’t completely lost. 

It’s a high risk, high reward situation.

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Ventyl said:

I think if we do, it would give a lot of information. For instance, if he flips elim then it probably clears Gears. If he doesn’t then I get lynched anyways. If he flips elim!Bondsmith then the elims have probably lost their main source of vote/action manipulation. If he flips elim, but not Bondsmith, then we know that the elims have some sort of vote manipulation. If flips elim!Truthwatcher/Edgedancer then we get rid their protection, because I doubt they have two. If he flips elim!Windrunner, then they no longer have Gravitation, which basically means we win (Assuming he doesn’t Squire, or if he does, they don’t get Gravitation). If he flips village as any of these roles, then we are in trouble, but the game isn’t completely lost. 

It’s a high risk, high reward situation.

You are correct, however TJ is temporarily declawed until D4, so he is a low-priority lynch. If we don't find any more urgent suspicions [the only suspicion is Ventyl at the moment], we can lynch him.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

6 minutes ago, Gears said:

You are correct, however TJ is temporarily declawed until D4, so he is a low-priority lynch. If we don't find any more urgent suspicions [the only suspicion is Ventyl at the moment], we can lynch him.

Yes, but still, if my Squiring doesn’t work we lose one of my Surges.

[Gears]

3 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Yes, but still, if my Squiring doesn’t work we lose one of my Surges.

What? If your squiring fails, nothing happens. You just don't squire someone.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

What? If your squiring fails, nothing happens. You just don't squire someone.

Yes, but then I wouldn’t get another chance to, because y’all would kill me! 

Edited July 4, 2020 by Ventyl

[|TJ| he/him]

Y'all are not making sense, oh storms. Serious considering E/E/E train? @Ashbringer, so who among the voters of Striker do you think is an elim then? You seriously don't think the elims would let a 5-vote train on me before beginning an alternate lynch ( an alternate lynch at could have been anyone BUT Striker)? There was a very good possibility to do that when it was 2-2-2-2. Don't you think that would have been an apt moment to go for a non-elim alternative? Make it make sense y'all, jeez. 

18 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I think if we do, it would give a lot of information. For instance, if he flips elim then it probably clears Gears. If he doesn’t then I get lynched anyways. If he flips elim!Bondsmith then the elims have probably lost their main source of vote/action manipulation. If he flips elim, but not Bondsmith, then we know that the elims have some sort of vote manipulation. If flips elim!Truthwatcher/Edgedancer then we get rid their protection, because I doubt they have two. If he flips elim!Windrunner, then they no longer have Gravitation, which basically means we win (Assuming he doesn’t Squire, or if he does, they don’t get Gravitation). If he flips village as any of these roles, then we are in trouble, but the game isn’t completely lost. 

Seriously, I absolutely baffled by the sheer reluctance to lynch Ventyl here, who has been a lot more suspicious than me. We get huuuge number of people who were anti-Ventyl lynch. Do you seriously think there is an elim!Bondsmith? A role with double-vote manip or double-roleblock? Fine, forget that. If I flip elim but not Bondsmith, that means there are two other roles with vote manips both willing to waste a Surge? In a team of possible 3 Radiants? That is seriously absurd. Where did the Truthwatcher/Edgedancer/Windrunner stuff come from? That would also require 2 other vote manips from teammates. You're just throwing all possibilities to deflect blame here. This only increases my suspicion on you, as you're just throwing everything out, and hopes someone catches something. 

7 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Yes, but still, if my Squiring doesn’t work we lose one of my Surges.

You don't lose a Surge. 

Alright, guys. Do make sure to visit my 3 earlier posts if I die. And do lynch Ventyl when I flip village. 

Edited July 4, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Straw he/him]

The turn is over!

[Gears]

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Alright, guys. Do make sure to visit my 3 earlier posts if I die. And do lynch Ventyl when I flip village. 

Will do. I think lynching Ventyl is a higher priority than lynching TJ at the moment. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

I can’t access each page of the threads easily. I’m more saying it’s a possibility. You panicking isn’t really helping convince me.

That being said, I am NOT going to lynch TJ for information. That makes no sense whatsoever. We don’t need high-risk plays on D2.

Edit: blegh.

Edited July 4, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Straw he/him]

No talking!

[Straw he/him]

Someone in your group, Sartsart, was standing over a chasm last night. He kept on yelling "Sart" at the chasm, because it would echo and say his name. Unfortunately, he slipped and fell into the chasm. Some people in your group think he was pushed, but who would want to kill him?

---

Sart has died! He was a Refugee.

GM Notes:

-The day will end on July 6th, at 1:00 PM EST.

-If you need a vote count, just @mention me and I'll give you one ASAP!

-PMs are closed!

Player List:

Spoiler

@A Joe in the Bush

@Araris Valerian

@Ashbringer

@Devotary of Spontaneity

@Elbereth

@Eternum

@Fifth Scholar

@Frozen Mint

@Gears

@Illwei

@Kynedath

@Lahilt

@Lord_Silberfarben

@Magestar

@Matrim's Dice

@Orlok Tsubodai

Sart Refugee

StrikerEZ Diagramist

@The Young Pyromancer

@The_Truthwatcher

@TJ Shade

@Ventyl

@xinoehp512

@Zillah

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Straw

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Alright, my Squiring worked! Also why would they kill Sart? Anyone have any idea what this means? Also, I’m confused by the lack of PMs, does this mean we have an inactive Lightweaver or Truthwatcher.

[Mat he/him]

Makes sense Sart was killed as a universal village read.

I’m going hiking so I won’t post for 2 plus hours. Analysis after that

[|TJ| he/him]

Another setback for your bus theory. No Illumination. Strength to my elim!Lightweaver theory. 

11 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Also why would they kill Sart? Anyone have any idea what this means?

Kinda obvious answer. It feels like you're asking to seem naive. Can we please lynch Ventyl? He's had his chance to Squire, and he mostly Squired a fellow elim. I have one Squiring left too, if everyone is forgetting. Bah, I'm going off for a while to watch Arsenal play. 

Edit: Sadly, it's half-time. @Straw, is the Progression Surge used up only if it heals an attack, or does it get used even if no one attacks the target?

Edited July 4, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

I am going to place my vote on Ventyl for now, as they've been suspicious for a while. Would anyone would like to propose an alternate lynch target?

[Straw he/him]

7 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Edit: Sadly, it's half-time. @Straw, is the Progression Surge used up only if it heals an attack, or does it get used even if no one attacks the target?

Progression is used up even if it does nothing. In general, that's the case for all the Surges.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Hmm, well. Kill TJ Shade when I flip village, alright?

EDIT: Also, did anyone alignment scan me as I asked? I don’t have any more charges, so you’ll be sure it went through.

Edited July 4, 2020 by Ventyl