Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[Mailliw73]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

@tiny wilson Sorry to keep pinging you, but I just realized, what you claimed to me does not seem match the writeup for D1. Do you have an explanation for that?

Sorry. : /

It didn’t do it the way you expected. To keep it vague, I won’t say much more. But look at what happened there. 

Also, I’d like to hear more about your suspicions and trusts as that would help me see how you used your role without you making it clear. 

Just now, Elandera said:

It was the simpler one. I'm still not sure how to confirm the other, especially with the PMs closed.

Ah as I expected but didn’t hope. 

As promised, here are my top suspicions, not necessarily in order:

Rae. I can’t explain why, especially since her voting seems to make her lean village pretty strong. 

Itiah has even stronger evidence for being village so I’m discounting this one. This cycle has also changed my opinion of him anyways. 

I’m seeing more and more reason to suspect Arand as others share. Crimsn has been sticking out to me lately. And lastly, a healthy suspicion of Ada and Alv is always good. I’d place Alv higher on the suspicion list than Ada though. 

[Sapphire Elephant]

Just now, tiny wilson said:

It didn’t do it the way you expected. To keep it vague, I won’t say much more. But look at what happened there. 

Also, I’d like to hear more about your suspicions and trusts as that would help me see how you used your role without you making it clear. 

Ah as I expected but didn’t hope. 

As promised, here are my top suspicions, not necessarily in order:

Rae. I can’t explain why, especially since her voting seems to make her lean village pretty strong. 

Itiah has even stronger evidence for being village so I’m discounting this one. This cycle has also changed my opinion of him anyways. 

I’m seeing more and more reason to suspect Arand as others share. Crimsn has been sticking out to me lately. And lastly, a healthy suspicion of Ada and Alv is always good. I’d place Alv higher on the suspicion list than Ada though. 

What? We can't always trust alvron? Nahhhhh

[Arrae]

2 minutes ago, tiny wilson said:

It didn’t do it the way you expected. To keep it vague, I won’t say much more. But look at what happened there. 

Also, I’d like to hear more about your suspicions and trusts as that would help me see how you used your role without you making it clear. 

Ah as I expected but didn’t hope. 

As promised, here are my top suspicions, not necessarily in order:

Rae. I can’t explain why, especially since her voting seems to make her lean village pretty strong. 

Itiah has even stronger evidence for being village so I’m discounting this one. This cycle has also changed my opinion of him anyways. 

I’m seeing more and more reason to suspect Arand as others share. Crimsn has been sticking out to me lately. And lastly, a healthy suspicion of Ada and Alv is always good. I’d place Alv higher on the suspicion list than Ada though. 

Admit it, Maill. You simply cannot abide a member of the Church of Enlightenment showing others the true way to Freedom and Independence.

[Sapphire Elephant]

1 minute ago, High Priest of Lord Tekiel said:

Admit it, Maill. You simply cannot abide a member of the Church of Enlightenment showing others the true way to Freedom and Independence.

wait what is this. freedom and independence from a brit? Lies, murica all the freaking way, bald eagles and hamburgers and free bathrooms 

[Arrae]

1 minute ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

wait what is this. freedom and independence from a brit? Lies, murica all the freaking way, bald eagles and hamburgers and free bathrooms 

...perhaps I should not be posting so late at night. That's when my American taint shows up more stronglly w help im feenkdooom murriecaej hrlfp djfbqlcnwjvkms fjejfnenkfnwkdbfak fhdksncj

[I think I am here.]

Fura claimed to me too, that was another reason I was getting village vibes. And in all honesty, my gut reads for people aren’t too well honed either, as in judging if people are suspicious. So I don’t really known whether I should take my Steel vote off or not, or whether I should vote for Arand like others are.

And I speak in Chinese because I’m definitely not a spammer. Obviously

有？。？他：在你身

[Mailliw73]

7 minutes ago, High Priest of Lord Tekiel said:

Admit it, Maill. You simply cannot abide a member of the Church of Enlightenment showing others the true way to Freedom and Independence.

We all know that Orlok doesn’t believe in either of those principles. Compulsion defines his rule. 

[Arrae]

8 minutes ago, tiny wilson said:

We all know that Orlok doesn’t believe in either of those principles. Compulsion defines his rule. 

Agreed, Maill.

Don't tell him I said that. The contract only allows me to stop being his PR agent during this time of day, I think it's an oversight

[Araris Valerian]

I haven’t had much time to catch up, but I did see that both wagons D1 were on elims. This makes me mildly suspicious of Alvron. I’ll work on reading the thread tomorrow and see if there is anyone else I’m suspicious of.

[Kidpen]

Alright. In an attempt to finally actually contribute to the game, I'm going to put a vote on to Cadmium Compounder because of this post:

14 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I interrupt this missionary work for various false Sanderson religions. We all know that the church of the survivor is the only true church. Anyway, the interruption is that I want to share what I learned during rollover. 

Someone through PM told me that they were going to try to attack someone last night. It appears that that attack was not successful. So until the person who tried the attack let's me know what happened... somehow, I'll go ahead and put my vote on crimsn chanarach.

This just doesn't sit right with me. I'm assuming that Crimsn was who the attacker was going to attack, and I find it odd that he trusts the attackers judgement that much. I don't think there's any real reason to be suspicious just because somebody survived an attack, especially considering that none of the spamsters get an extra life. I'd say that some other village role most likely interfered with it. If it is a role that Crimsn has, that seems to me like it makes him more village rather than less.

I wouldn't be surprised if CadCom comes back with more explanation that makes me change my vote, but this is where I'm putting it for the moment.

[I think I am here.]

Can we have a vote count?

[Fifth Scholar]

Very briefly, to respond to a few points: 

- @High Priest of Lord Tekiel, I’m unapologetic if my self-vote seemed overreactive. You’re free to call my bluff if you believe I’m bluffing, but the fact remains that lynching me would confirm my village alignment, and with several  others stating at least mild suspicion of me, I’m not going to pass up an opportunity to clean my name.

- Crimsn Chanarach seems to be lurking, and a post from her would be appreciated, particularly given the confusion that’s surrounded her for much of the game. More AI content is needed from quite a few people (including myself), too.

- The sudden swing to Arand confuses me slightly, though that may be due to an insufficient allotment of time to read the thread.

- Leaving this as a reminder for myself to analyse Maill and Ada later.

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, I think I am here. said:

Can we have a vote count?

As it stands, this is what I've got:

• (1) Crimsn Chanarach: Cadmium Compounder, 
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint, I think I am here.,
• (1) Furamirionind: Sapphire Elephant, NotASteelClone,
• (1) Seventh Saint: NotASteelClone, Seventh Saint,
• (2) Aranduensis: Elandera, Metabardnition, 
• (1) Araris Valerian: High Priest of Lord Tekiel, 
• (1) alVoidus: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) Cadmium Compounder: Kidpen, 

I'm personally apprehensive towards lynching Aranduensis, and not just because I'm his #1 fan and president of his fan club. Without saying any role names, did anyone else contact him in PM and share your role with him? If you did, I would greatly appreciate a timestamp of when that exchange happened. If no one exchanged roles with him before me then I'm confident I can guarantee he's village.

I'll admit, something I learned in PMs made me trust Seventh, but now that he's claimed he has an extra life, I don't know what to think. Strategically it probably makes the most sense to strip him of his extra life, but ugh. I hate targeting people for their roles alone. I think they're probably okay?

Fura is... hm. Last turn we were on the same page a lot, which makes me think he could be a villager going through the same thought progression as me? But then again it was just a vote count and correcting Alv. Nothing really indicative of alignment.

I have mixed feelings about Steel? Based on D1 votes alone I doubt there's a way I can resolve my opinion of his slot until he's dead. Sorry, Steel. 

Need more content from @Araris Valerian for sure. Can you explain your issue with Alv more in depth?

No real opinion on @Crimsn Chanarach, @Cadmium Compounder, or @Kidpen, if I'm honest. Would love to see more from you three as well as @I think I am here.

In fact everyone should post another ten or twenty times. Not trolling, genuine effort. I'd appreciate that a lot 

On that note I'm still catching up on the last page or so. Will post again or edit this when I'm done, probably.

[I think I am here.]

Got a post that got deleted. Great.

11 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Would love to see more from you three as well as @I think I am here.

In fact everyone should post another ten or twenty times. Not trolling, genuine effort. I'd appreciate that a lot 

I’ll try my best

So, since I’m a trusted villager (not to brag) as of this cycle at least I think we can trust who I’m defending this cycle isn’t because I’m in a doc with them. I think Fura’s good, first of all. To Metabardnition, you out your table of who you thought was village, elim etc. what do you think of Steel. Because, I don’t really know what to think of Steel. His last posts seem like they’re genuine, but I don’t know if that’s genuinely exasperated he’ll be a lynched villager or genuinely exasperated he’ll be the third elim. The post is genuine, but from which point of view I have no idea.

So, I’m keeping my vote on Steel.

And wow, the lynch is really spread out.

14 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

• (1) Crimsn Chanarach: Cadmium Compounder, 
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint, I think I am here.,
• (1) Furamirionind: Sapphire Elephant, NotASteelClone,
• (1) Seventh Saint: NotASteelClone, Seventh Saint,
• (2) Aranduensis: Elandera, Metabardnition, 
• (1) Araris Valerian: High Priest of Lord Tekiel, 
• (1) alVoidus: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) Cadmium Compounder: Kidpen, 

So CadCom, Alvron, and Araris (?) are being lynched because people find them a bit fishy. Due to the fact that nobody else has thought the same enough to lynch them I take it it nobody is really agreeing on who to lynch, which means the vote manip roles that took my vote off and did something to Jon’s vote may very well decode who dies next. Fifth has voted on himself, which is great, but I won’t take the chance because other people trust him, and as I stated before, I’m not really great at telling her someone is acting really suspicious.

But the cases against CadCom and Arand do look legitimate, especially the fact that CadCom started a large confusion on Crimsn, and like Kidpen said, seems to have a lot of trust about this PM contact and that Crimsn is evil. I would also like CadCom to give more info.

And Arand, I also see a case, from Elandera’s posts, who I say I’ve trusted. All in all, I trust the CadCom lynch over the Steel one.

[Amanuensis]

So here are my thoughts on just a few players. The ones I don't mention I haven't thought about in much length, either because they haven't had a strong presence so far or because I can't remember a significant thing about them.

• Metabardnition: His attempts at solving feel really genuine to me. Leaning Eliminator.
• Crimsn Chanarach: As Metabardnition pointed out in a huge post, he pushed the vote in Roadwalker's favor over Guest. I think Roadwalker could have redeemed themself if they became active, so I assume the Spambots would too. Leaning Eliminator.
• Cadmium Compounder: I personally feel like his reasoning for voting Crimsn is too convoluted to be a Spammer plot. Leaning Eliminator.

 

• Aranduensis: Leaning eliminator (yea, the good kind), but like I said in my previous post, this will change SIGNIFICANTLY if another player informs the thread that they told Aranduensis their role before our own exchange.
• Seventh Saint: Like Arand, SS is kind of up in the air. Something I learned in PMs makes me think he is probably village, but I do find it concerning that he has an extra life, like that one Spammer role. I would like to explore this read in the future.
• Furamirionind: Votes don't look great, but having a similar mental track is a point in his favor. I feel this could go either way. For now I'm willing to defer to the people who he has claimed his role too. I really wish I was in the know, though.
• NotASteelClone: Similarly to Fura, votes don't look great, and he bought into that whole "maybe Roadwalker's role prevents him from posting" thing, which IMO was a very silly proposition and serves as a good excuse to prolong the death of Temptation.

At this point I think I'd prefer to lynch one of the slots I'm clueless about to narrow things down. Someone like @May I suggest The Only Joe, @xinoehp512, @|247|-|, @Snipexe, or even @Araris Valerian. This, of course, can be changed with any significant bumps in activity. 

(hint hint)

Edited March 25, 2019 by Adavantos

[DeTess]

7 hours ago, Elandera said:

He states in the first one that voting on an inactive (who turned out to be Temptation) felt like a bad idea, then followed it up with saying he didn't feel strongly about any lynches. His removal of his vote on myself was four hours after his first post after my real analysis post. While that’s not obvious spammer, it seemed to come after realizing there was no longer a strong argument against me, nor anyone else willing to join. Combine that with the placement of his vote (the first after Ada posted the first, and very reasonable, argument against me while Temptation was in the lead) and it just feels off. He then never placed a final vote, which again isn’t 100% spammer (could have been RL things), but all together gives me a bad vibe.

The reason I never placed an additional vote was because I signed off shortly after moving my vote off you. I moved my vote off of you rather late because I'd hoped that the overall votes would develop in such a way that I could safely clear myself. Unfortunately, that did not happen, but I'll endeavour to do so this cycle.

I'm not 100% sure what to think about the suspicions on CadCom for his vote this cycle. I called out his vote for Crimsn Anarch, but I doubt that the claim he made is completely fictional, as Crimsn Anarch flipping village would bring a lot of suspicion down on him. A claim like that is not typical for the evil team during C2.

That having been said, in light of Roadwalker's alignment, his vote On ITIAh seems off in hindsight, but it's not that unusual a reasoning for D1. After all, the case against roadwalker was that he was inactive and nothing more, so I can see a villager going against that.

I've looked over D1 again for any attempts at forming a serious counterwagon, and I've seen two. The first was me and Ada on Elandera. I'm quite certain Ada is village, unless the crusader never false-claimed to him (in which case Ada's probably evil). I know I'm village, but that doesn't help anyone else much either.

The other counterwagon was on The high priest, which was initiated by Mailliw, but properly started by steel (with votes of Furami and evil!guest coming after that). Of these four, I wouldn't say more than 1 beside guest is an elim, for the simple reason that too many elim votes in one place like that is a grave risk for the entire team. Neither steel's nor Furami's argument was particularly strong for that lynch imo, but it should be noted that steel did switch to the fledgling guest wagon fairly early on. On the other hand, Roadwalker was apparently at least a little bit active, and though I'd personally bus an inactive elim with a role over an active elim without a role, if he was active enough that the would likely send in actions, I could see the elims bussing guest. In short, I think either Furami or steel could be evil, but most likely not both.

Unfortunately, with a deadline tomorrow I won't be able to go much more in-depth than this, so instead I'm going to do something odd that'll save you all some analysis on me down the road, provided you don't lynch me this cycle (It'll also save you some analysis if you do lynch me, but at the cost of a preventable mis-lynch).

|247|-|, I know you can post more constructive things than you've done so far. Any thoughts you want to share? @|247|-|

Actually, I realize that I've been rather vague here, when that was not at all necessary with temptation out of the picture, so let me be clearer. I've got a role that allows my vote to count extra, but only if I'm the first vote on someone. Against Elandera during D1, that'd have actually posed a credible risk to her being lynched at the time, which is why I retracted it after it looked like I couldn't leave it in place to prove me having a village role without running the risk of accidentally lynching her. Provided no one messes with my vote (and I don't feel compelled to join another vote instead) you'll see this in action this turn.

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

|247|-|, I know you can post more constructive things than you've done so far. Any thoughts you want to share? @|247|-|

Actually, I realize that I've been rather vague here, when that was not at all necessary with temptation out of the picture, so let me be clearer. I've got a role that allows my vote to count extra, but only if I'm the first vote on someone. Against Elandera during D1, that'd have actually posed a credible risk to her being lynched at the time, which is why I retracted it after it looked like I couldn't leave it in place to prove me having a village role without running the risk of accidentally lynching her. Provided no one messes with my vote (and I don't feel compelled to join another vote instead) you'll see this in action this turn.

Brilliant. I will confirm that Arand claimed a role name that makes perfect sense with this ability in mind. @Elandera and @Metabardnition are you two willing to give Arand a cycle to prove this?

[CadCom]

6 hours ago, Kidpen said:

Alright. In an attempt to finally actually contribute to the game, I'm going to put a vote on to Cadmium Compounder because of this post:

20 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I interrupt this missionary work for various false Sanderson religions. We all know that the church of the survivor is the only true church. Anyway, the interruption is that I want to share what I learned during rollover. 

Someone through PM told me that they were going to try to attack someone last night. It appears that that attack was not successful. So until the person who tried the attack let's me know what happened... somehow, I'll go ahead and put my vote on crimsn chanarach.

This just doesn't sit right with me. I'm assuming that Crimsn was who the attacker was going to attack, and I find it odd that he trusts the attackers judgement that much. I don't think there's any real reason to be suspicious just because somebody survived an attack, especially considering that none of the spamsters get an extra life. I'd say that some other village role most likely interfered with it. If it is a role that Crimsn has, that seems to me like it makes him more village rather than less.

I wouldn't be surprised if CadCom comes back with more explanation that makes me change my vote, but this is where I'm putting it for the moment.

I would happily oblige. 

So the reason I trust the alignment of that said person so much is because said person was me. Last weekend I had a one time kill action that I would never get a chance to use again. I would rather not go into details of how I got that kill action, as it may implicate someone that I do not want to be implicated at this time. I chose to attack crimsn, because at the time, they were under heavy suspicion for their trying to change the lynch away from guest onto roadwalker.(if my memory serves me well) (At the time we still did not know that they were both eliminators). I derived my suspicion partially on my own, but this post primarily helped me confirm it. (Along with a couple of other posts from last weekend. 

I hope that I got the link to the right post. I'm too lazy to check. If not, it's close in proximity to the post i linked. Anyway, I also figured that if I was wrong about that suspicion, it would help us get information out. 

Now, the reason I voted on crimsn after they survived is because, while I can't guarantee anything based off the GM response, the response I got led me to believe that I believe that the action I sent didn't fail and wasn't necessarily redirected. So, I believe, as of now, that Crimsn is Bierst1928

18 hours ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

Once again, I am surprised by the sheer number of posts only to find extensive discussion of gods. Crimsn's theological opinions must be kept secret, for fear that her true identity be discovered. 

I suppose that means someone told you they would attack me? Three attacks in one night would mean that Babaji exists and the spammers used their double kill already, or there are two eliminator vigilantes. Multiple kill roles are rare, but possible I suppose. I don't see the spammers attempting to kill two of Jon, Road, and I, so if the former possibility is true there would have to be some major redirection. The redirection possibilities mean it's entirely possible there were only two attacks last night.

I don't know whether babaji exists or not, but the three attacks don't necessarily indicate that at all, because the roadwalker attack/kill suggests to us that one attack was by a villager, and my attack was a rare-one time- attack that probably won't happen again. Then the third attack was most likely the spammer attack which banned Jondesu, crippling our ability to communicate. Thanks for that. *sarcasm*

17 hours ago, Aranduensis said:

Can you be a bit more precise? I get not wanting to reveal the identity of a potential village vigilante, but why did they target Crimsn in particular, and do you have good reason to trust them enough to be willing to immediately push this lynch?

@tiny wilson, had you gotten any response pout of your PM to Roadwalker? I assume not, but it's worth checking.

oops, I revealed the vigilante's identity. Hopefully it doesn't come back to bite them me.

8 hours ago, tiny wilson said:

I’m interested in this recent focus on Arand for sure. I’d also like to hear more from @Cadmium Compounder Because he’s been quieter than normal this game. Also, I’ll echo the call for Araris. I’ve been impressed with his analysis recently(especially when he basically caught me) and I’d like to hear his thoughts. 

Sorry, RL weekends usually slow me down, and this one was a bit slower than normal. I should be back and running until the next RL weekend. (During normal business hours)

EDIT: I wanted to reveal this information with enough time to generate discussion, but I also wanted to wait long enough to judge people's reactions to my original post that kidpen quoted. so that is the reason why i didn't post immediately everything I knew, and why i waited until now to post this information. I realize that if crimsn is a spammer, then unfortunately, I give the spammers a fair amount of time to come up with a response, but I want to be able to participate in the discussion for at least a little bit. 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[DeTess]

Though it could be possible that Crimsn Anarch got protected by Vodiyehi, this does sound quite damning. A one time kill also sounds more reasonable in light of the kill activity we've already seen. If necessary, I'll jump on the crimsn vote (or if @Cadmium Compounder could drop off the vote for a second so I could claim the first spot and confirm my ability as well).

[CadCom]

13 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

Though it could be possible that Crimsn Anarch got protected by Vodiyehi, this does sound quite damning. A one time kill also sounds more reasonable in light of the kill activity we've already seen. If necessary, I'll jump on the crimsn vote (or if @Cadmium Compounder could drop off the vote for a second so I could claim the first spot and confirm my ability as well).

Ok, I'll drop off for a few minutes, but I must have missed something, because that seems like a very odd ability. Crimsn Chanarach(devotary)

[DeTess]

3 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Ok, I'll drop off for a few minutes, but I must have missed something, because that seems like a very odd ability. Crimsn Chanarach(devotary)

Crimsn Chanarach

Thanks for humoring me here. It's not that odd an ability if you know all the relevant details, such as the name.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I've had to spend most of my free time doing puzzle hunt, so I've mostly only had time to view the thread. Now that it's over, I will hopefully have more time to respond. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

So the reason I trust the alignment of that said person so much is because said person was me. Last weekend I had a one time kill action that I would never get a chance to use again.

Now, the reason I voted on crimsn after they survived is because, while I can't guarantee anything based off the GM response, the response I got led me to believe that I believe that the action I sent didn't fail and wasn't necessarily redirected. So, I believe, as of now, that Crimsn is Bierst1928

A one use kill action, and you decided to use it night one to kill me. A one-time vigilante and a full time vigilante does make more sense than two vigilantes, though that presumes the circumstances under which you received your kill role cannot be replicated. I don't have time to respond more thoroughly now, but I am not Beirst, which can easily be proven by having an action successfully target me. I think the easiest way is for a vote manipulator to alter my vote for Xinoehp.

[Steeldancer]

Well I won’t lie. Holy frick I’m a bit lost, even though I have some idea of what’s going on. So many role claims flying around, and no real way to confirm any of them. Who the crap do we lynch now? I’m not entirely sure. 

[Amanuensis]

14 minutes ago, NotASteelClone said:

Well I won’t lie. Holy frick I’m a bit lost, even though I have some idea of what’s going on. So many role claims flying around, and no real way to confirm any of them. Who the crap do we lynch now? I’m not entirely sure. 

Arand says he has a way to prove he's village, since the Spammers have no manipulation roles. This of course makes him an ideal convert, however, so we're going to need to keep tabs on him if the Spammers don't eventually delete him.

As for the CadCom vs Crimsn situation... CadCom had a one time kill and used it on Crimsn, but it didn't work. That means Crimsn has to be a village role with a defense of some kind (note that he did NOT claim that in response and instead called into question CadCom's one-time kill order), or he is Beirst (immune to everything but lynch), or protected by the other Spammer role (Vodiyehi).

From my perspective there's no way CadCom would lie about this so early if he were a Spammer. As soon as Crimsn was killed we would just turn on him. Therefore the most logical explanation is that Crimsn Chanarach is a Spammer. Trying to prolong his life by inviting vote manipulation seems like a basic ploy to have people back off.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Adavantos
Added last line

[CadCom]

Alright, I've allowed Aranduensis to put his vote first, so I'll add my vote back on  Crimsn Chanarach.

Edit: Now that We've discussed the possibility of crimsn being an elim, regardless of whether the vote remains on them, I do not want to focus discussion on them too much today, because we need to have in mind where we are going from here if my hunch is right, as well as where we should go if I'm wrong. 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder