Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[I think I am here.]

35 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

I'm sold. 

 

23 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

No, I'd rather worship Itiah. 

And you’ve just been promoted to my Main Priest. In addition to previous perks you get a T-shirt with my name on it 

Join brothers! And you shall be blessed.

[DeTess]

Welp, this has thrown me off course. I was pretty sure something was up with Crimsn, but if both guest and Roadwalker where evil, that suddenly looks less likely.

I should hopefully have time tomorrow for some in-depth player-by-player analysis (but I can't guarantee anything right now), but I do have time to look over the votes on Roadwalker. 

The first vote on them came By Elandera, who voted purely because of activity. This could have been a spammer poking another one, but given that whether or not to lynch an inactive D1 is always a source of discussion, evil!Elandera could have fabricated a reason to vote elsewhere as well. ITIAH pretty much got that lynch going properly, so I feel fairly confident stating that they were not evil.

Metabard was the 4th vote, which would only really make some sens for evil!Metabard if Rae is evil as well, since he was trying to get pressure off of her. Assuming Rae is not evil, I see no reason why metabard would be.

After that the tie shenanigans occurred. At that point two elims where up on the chopping block, so I don't think the way the votes moved during that bit is alignment indicative at this point, though I will say that I don't think there's more than 1 elim among the people active at that time (Alv, ITIAH, elephant, crimsn and furami) because with any more elims around they could have conceivable tried for a three-way tie.

tl;dr: ITIAH and Bard are probably good.

[Elandera]

I apologize for my absence yesterday (aside from the occasional PM). I still haven't been able to go over what happened in the last turn, but should have some time late tonight. I'm super disappointed about the PMs. *shakes fist angrily at the corpse of Jon*

I suspect some of the early votes on Guest were from villagers unhappy with lynching an inactive. But some of the later votes I suspect may have been elims resigned to one of them dying, and deciding it would be better to have the roleless one go, rather than Temptation. Good shot for whoever decided to target Road anyway (if it wasn't some kind of accidental misdirection, that is).

[Snipexe]

Just going to quick check in, apologies for my inactivity, I was gone all day yesterday and so didn’t have a chance to get on.

[CadCom]

I interrupt this missionary work for various false Sanderson religions. We all know that the church of the survivor is the only true church. Anyway, the interruption is that I want to share what I learned during rollover. 

Someone through PM told me that they were going to try to attack someone last night. It appears that that attack was not successful. So until the person who tried the attack let's me know what happened... somehow, I'll go ahead and put my vote on crimsn chanarach.

[Amanuensis]

 

2 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Just going to quick check in, apologies for my inactivity, I was gone all day yesterday and so didn’t have a chance to get on.

I too am chiming in to apologize for my inactivity today. I'm working on the final draft for the next chapter of a fanfic I'm writing and it's supposed to go up in a few hours. Until then, it's my priority. Sorry

[Mailliw73]

53 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I interrupt this missionary work for various false Sanderson religions. We all know that the church of the survivor is the only true church. Anyway, the interruption is that I want to share what I learned during rollover. 

Someone through PM told me that they were going to try to attack someone last night. It appears that that attack was not successful. So until the person who tried the attack let's me know what happened... somehow, I'll go ahead and put my vote on crimsn chanarach.

The church of Survival is the only true church of SE, you’re right! 

[Steeldancer]

What the actual heck?

For some reason I assumed that we would be having an intelligent discussion based on analysis, not a debate about SE religions. Unless one of your gods will tell us who the spammers are right now , I reject every single religions here. Now that I’m awake, I’M going to look over the day one vote and get all uptight over that.

Edited March 24, 2019 by NotASteelClone

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Once again, I am surprised by the sheer number of posts only to find extensive discussion of gods. Crimsn's theological opinions must be kept secret, for fear that her true identity be discovered. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Someone through PM told me that they were going to try to attack someone last night. It appears that that attack was not successful. So until the person who tried the attack let's me know what happened... somehow, I'll go ahead and put my vote on crimsn chanarach.

I suppose that means someone told you they would attack me? Three attacks in one night would mean that Babaji exists and the spammers used their double kill already, or there are two eliminator vigilantes. Multiple kill roles are rare, but possible I suppose. I don't see the spammers attempting to kill two of Jon, Road, and I, so if the former possibility is true there would have to be some major redirection. The redirection possibilities mean it's entirely possible there were only two attacks last night.

[Lumgol]

Guys, I have a theory as to what might have happened. It's probably less likely than what's already been discussed (a redirect or a vigilante), but:

Given Temptation's ability, what 2 people decided to kill Temptation (or 2 different spambots, one of which was Temptation) and Temptation targeted one of those people, and the backfire effect made a villager die instead?

---------------

@Elandera, I get that you're inactive and may have other plans in-game, but if you could use the new ability I gave you on CadCom this Weekend, that would be great.

@Cadmium Compounder, the ability I mentioned involves the thing we've discussed in PM's and it won't harm you or change your alignment at all.

---------------

Also: Now that we know that Roadwalker was indeed a powerful spambot, this gives more credibility to the bussing theory as to why spammers might have jumped on the Guest lynch. This is unfortunate as I've come to tentatively trust some of those who voted for Guest.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Mailliw772

[DeTess]

2 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Someone through PM told me that they were going to try to attack someone last night. It appears that that attack was not successful. So until the person who tried the attack let's me know what happened... somehow, I'll go ahead and put my vote on crimsn chanarach.

Can you be a bit more precise? I get not wanting to reveal the identity of a potential village vigilante, but why did they target Crimsn in particular, and do you have good reason to trust them enough to be willing to immediately push this lynch?

@tiny wilson, had you gotten any response pout of your PM to Roadwalker? I assume not, but it's worth checking.

[Arrae]

27 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

Can you be a bit more precise? I get not wanting to reveal the identity of a potential village vigilante, but why did they target Crimsn in particular, and do you have good reason to trust them enough to be willing to immediately push this lynch?

@tiny wilson, had you gotten any response pout of your PM to Roadwalker? I assume not, but it's worth checking.

While I am not Maill, I sent Roadwalker a PM N1 and he said that he had been extremely busy.

[Amanuensis]

@tiny wilson, I just realized you mentioned learning about the Disciple role in our PM. Do you know anyone else who Jon told? If so, that might be a good lead.

[Steeldancer]

Tfw you said you were going to do analysis but then you take another freaking nap. 

I’ll get around to it in a bit lol

[Fifth Scholar]

Between a surprising load of homework and having to devote the majority of my time to visiting my relatives this weekend, I too apologise for my inactivity.

First of all, to respond to a question I received in PM, the stated mission of the Anti-Shardic War Agency is to diminish the chances of inter-Shardic conflict by aiding efforts to squash groups of disrupters that form across the Cosmere. It also seeks to keep the Shard of Dominion out of untrustworthy hands until such a time as it should be required to curb a power too great to be contained by other means. 

Second, I still have no time to do any analysis at all.  Give me an hour or two to knock out some of my homework, and I’ll try to do a brief scan of who I thought was suspicious. I do wish PMs were back up, though. 

[Mailliw73]

1 hour ago, Aranduensis said:

Can you be a bit more precise? I get not wanting to reveal the identity of a potential village vigilante, but why did they target Crimsn in particular, and do you have good reason to trust them enough to be willing to immediately push this lynch?

@tiny wilson, had you gotten any response pout of your PM to Roadwalker? I assume not, but it's worth checking.

Nope. No answer, but I guess High priest did. 

43 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

@tiny wilson, I just realized you mentioned learning about the Disciple role in our PM. Do you know anyone else who Jon told? If so, that might be a good lead.

He’s actually the third such role I’ve heard of. Jon and I never communicated, so I actually didn’t know he was that disciple. 

[Furamirionind]

Welp, another 12 hour day at robotics for me. Will be back tomorrow to talk about stuff.

[Elandera]

39 minutes ago, tiny wilson said:

He’s actually the third such role I’ve heard of. Jon and I never communicated, so I actually didn’t know he was that disciple.

If you've heard from three people claiming to have that role, two of those are lying.

EDIT: Sorry, I re-read what exactly you wrote. But it still stands. One of the two claims you received is a lie.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Elandera

[Mailliw73]

19 minutes ago, Elandera said:

If you've heard from three people claiming to have that role, two of those are lying.

EDIT: Sorry, I re-read what exactly you wrote. But it still stands. One of the two claims you received is a lie.

Let me clarify, sorry. Jon was a Disciple if Herowannabe. I’ve heard of another player claiming Disciple of [insert prominent old player here], not necessarily Hero’s. 

[Arrae]

A look at the Roadwalker votes

I have gone through and recorded all votes and interactions in thread relating to Roadwalker, Guest, and other prominent lynch trains. The stated reasons for each action are marked by parenthesis. Where possible, players are referred to by their actual account names. For example, "Aranduensis" is referred to as "Rand".

Color code

My commentary is in purple.

Assumed villagers are marked blue, known spammers are marked orange.

---

Event record

Elandera votes on Road (inactivity)

Elephant votes on Road (inactivity)

Itiah votes on Road (no reason given) Could be interpreted to mean that Itiah is village. Since it's so early in the cycle, it could be a distancing tactic, especially if Itiah expected Road to be able to post.

Cadcom defends Road and votes on Itiah (dislikes piling votes on an inactive) Not suspicious by itself, a third vote on an inactive so early in the cycle is unnecessary.

Ada votes on Elandera (suspicion for not trying hard enough with analysis), now at 2

Steel votes on me (joke vote, outrage at my evangelicizing), now at 2

Ada retracts from Elandera (got a response)

Fifth votes on Steel (suspicion for vote on me) and defends Road (lynch would not be informative) Same as for Cadcom, this early in the cycle, an inactivity lynch train is less useful.

Lum retracts from me (not suspicious anymore)

Steel retracts from me (my content was useful enough after all), currently no lynch votes on me

Fura votes on me (no useful content)

Guest votes on me (no reason given)

I vote on Guest (bandwagoning) Clear village move here.

Guest claims to have been bandwagoning for the sake of it and then retracts (doesn't want to vote) Start of spammer panic for being called out on unsupported vote.

Lum defends Road (wonders if he might be Elephant and unable to post)

Elandera attacks Lum's defense of Road (Elephant voted on Road)

Bard retracts from Lum (too wolfy to be a wolf), defends me (bandwagoning without reason), and votes on Road (to swing the lynch off of me) Should be noted that at that time I only had one vote. Still, villagery move.

Alv defends Road (wonders if he might be Elephant and unable to post, same reasoning as Lum) Slight village read for this. I think an eliminator would try to put up a defense that hasn't already been struck down, though he did say that he'd only skimmed the thread.

Fura defends and attacks Road (acknowledges Elephant's vote but also says it might be a distancing attempt)

Itiah encourages Road lynch (inactivity is a good reason to lynch) Consistent with earlier actions. Since this is later in the cycle, it makes it less likely that this is a distancing attempt. In general, I think it is unlikely that the spammers would choose to bus an important role D1, so those who pushed to lynch Road later in the cycle are probably village.

Rand attacks Guest (for bandwagoning)

Maill defends Road (has been viewing thread, inactivity not in character)

I attack Guest (for bandwagoning)

Maill votes on Guest (no reason given)

Steel defends Road (potential role issues) and votes on Guest (suspicious post)

Alv votes on Guest (to create a tie) Here the tie shenanigans start. I don't think this is enough to deem Alv village, because a spammer Alv would also have to create a tie here in order to stay consistent with previous games. A spammer Alv who had to pick between lynching two teammates probably would still find glee in putting their fate up to the RNG.

Elephant votes on Guest (to break the tie)

Devotary defends and attacks Road and Guest, post is inconclusive

Alv retracts from Guest and votes for Road (to keep the tie)

Elephant votes on Road (to break the tie)

Devotary votes on Road (to further break the tie) Slight villagery move to Devotary. Most spammers in this situation would prefer to lynch their less powerful member, which in this case was Guest.

Alv retracts from Road to vote on Guest (to keep the tie)

Elephant retracts from Road (no reason given)

---

Conclusion

Village reads: Elandera, Elephant, Bard, Itiah, me

Slight village reads: Devotary, Alv, Rand, Ada

Neutral: Steel

Slight spammer reads: Fura

Spammer reads: None

[Mailliw73]

Thanks for the summary, Rae. Where would you place Lum and me? 

[Arrae]

Just now, tiny wilson said:

Thanks for the summary, Rae. Where would you place Lum and me? 

Lum is neutral, you're slightly village.

[Elandera]

Just now, tiny wilson said:

Let me clarify, sorry. Jon was a Disciple if Herowannabe. I’ve heard of another player claiming Disciple of [insert prominent old player here], not necessarily Hero’s. 

Ah. Okay, that makes sense. 

12 minutes ago, High Priest of Lord Tekiel said:

Village reads: Elandera, Elephant, Bard, Itiah, me

Slight village reads: Devotary, Alv, Rand, Ada

Neutral: Steel

Slight spammer reads: Fura

Spammer reads: None

I'm considering a stronger spammer vibe from Steel. The placement of his vote was to join an already growing bandwagon on a roleless eliminator. While not inherently suspicious, it did put the spammers one step closer to saving Temptation, potentially within one vote and some RNG luck. 

[Steeldancer]

Yikes, my vote does look a lot more suspicious with both Roadwalker and Guest being spammers. Not much I can say in my defense, other than I stand by what I said in that post- Guests one vote was super suspicious, and with so little information, I agreed with the idea that Roadwalker might have a role preventing him from talking. While he didn’t end up having such a role, there was no way I could have known that at the time. 

Also, just saying, if I were a spammer, I probably would have kept my vote on Rae. I tend to get pretty nervous about voting on fellow team mates at all, unless I have a distinct plan in mind. But if you’re suspicious of me, I understand, if I didn’t know I am an eliminator I would be suspicious of me too. 

[Fifth Scholar]

I’m not going to disguise this as anything approaching my normal level of a well-thought and analysed vote, but Steeldancer. While there are elements of Rae’s analysis I take issue with, I appreciate that she’s voiced my suspicions of Steel in a way I hadn’t been able to previously; in addition, his vote on Guest still strikes me as emotionally overexaggerated, and seemed intent almost on derailing the wagon by giving it an easy source of scrutiny—his own vote. It also looks like very convenient distancing in the aftermath of the lynch actually going through. Again, once I’ve finished my work, I’ll try to go through today’s thread at the very least and offer my thoughts (particularly on Rae’s analysis).