Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[Arrae]

31 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

My vote on Alv D1 is what it is, and I don’t have any more to say on it. But based on both D1 wagons being elim, I feel like elim!Alv would have taken advantage of his normal “God’s of luck and chance” to bus two of his teammates simultaneously without actually changing anything. While Alvron may have done something similar as a villager (using standard terminology btw), I think it is more likely he would have gotten involved that way as an elim. 

Now again, I’m writing this post based off of very little info, and my lack of contribution is due to my having gone 30 or 40 hours without internet, and then needing to catch up on sleep. I’ll do my best to read everything today and make a more informed post.

Fair enough. Araris.

Why, I must ask, are we giving Rand the benefit of the doubt by letting him prove his role and not giving Devotary such a similar chance?

[Sapphire Elephant]

Just now, Adavantos said:

Yeah. I'm thinking if they were a Spammer, the result would be different, unless the Spammers have more roleless.

So wait. You're a scanner, but you only scan for a very specific piece of information? Is there any way you could inform what kind of information this might be? I might be able to use it. If you can't, it's fine, don't worry about it too much. 

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, High Priest of Lord Tekiel said:

Fair enough. Araris.

Why, I must ask, are we giving Rand the benefit of the doubt by letting him prove his role and not giving Devotary such a similar chance?

Rand's method absolutely guarantees he has an Eliminator role. All Devotary's method proves is that they're not a very specific Spammer role.

EDIT: @Sapphire Elephant

2 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

So wait. You're a scanner, but you only scan for a very specific piece of information? Is there any way you could inform what kind of information this might be? I might be able to use it. If you can't, it's fine, don't worry about it too much. 

At this point the Spammers will probably delete me anyway, so might as well just say it. Basically tells me if they put in an action or not. This player did not.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Adavantos

[CadCom]

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Ah CadCom, I forgot we had a PM! Have you learned anything, or is it still the same?

Nothing much that I haven't already shared. I think I'm beginning to believe that you have quite a bit more information than me. So, I suppose that I would be willing to share in some cryptic way an answer to the first question that you asked after you said that it raises some questions for you. But only if you would also be willing to share some information back, like if anyone else that you know of shares the same answer to that question.

2 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

4 minutes ago, tiny wilson said:

Ah. And what you learned allows you to disbelieve the claims regarding that person in thread? 

Yeah. I'm thinking if they were a Spammer, the result would be different, unless the Spammers have more roleless.

Is this regarding Crimsn Chanarach, or someone else? Because if it's regarding crimsn, I would really appreciate if you shared more information. If it isn't about crimsn though, I would also very much appreciate that some more information is shared, so we can know who to possibly soft-clear. 

1 minute ago, High Priest of Lord Tekiel said:

Fair enough. Araris.

Why, I must ask, are we giving Rand the benefit of the doubt by letting him prove his role and not giving Devotary such a similar chance?

 Fair enough. I am willing to give Devotary more benefit of doubt, but I would like to set up a surefire way to prove that. The way provided didn't seem valid enough. 

[Sapphire Elephant]

7 minutes ago, tiny wilson said:

Ah. And what you learned allows you to disbelieve the claims regarding that person in thread? 

Well, Adavantos has a pretty fancy code, doesn't he. Unfortunately, I cannot use that particularly niche scan result to provide any information; however, I'll give you permission to share the information I shared with you using Adavantos's code, if you trust him. 

[Amanuensis]

5 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Is this regarding Crimsn Chanarach, or someone else? Because if it's regarding crimsn, I would really appreciate if you shared more information. If it isn't about crimsn though, I would also very much appreciate that some more information is shared, so we can know who to possibly soft-clear. 

It's not Crimsn related. No one is soft-cleared really, I need a lot more information on the Spammer's team composition before it can really be effective. But at least now 3 others (all more likely Eliminators based on my interactions with them) are aware. So even if I die tonight, that info isn't lost. It's unlikely all 4 of us get deleted any time soon.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Adavantos

[Rathmaskal]

OK, this is definitely the most active game I've been in so far.  Actually kind of tough for me to keep up with the conversation as much as normal.  Also, seems most people have removed their spam trolling from their posts, so I'll do the same (no more extreme 1337 speak from me).

Right now it seems that Crimsn is the top target.  I kind of get it a bit due to the votes from D1 (I was rather suspicious once the result of the lynch came through as well), but when you take into account the fact *ninja Adavantos* that both the bandwagons D1 were on spammers, a lot of the *ninja High Priest of Lord Tekiel* *ninja Sapphire Elephant* (see what I mean...holy crap it's tough to get a post in here) *another ninja here...I'm going to stop noting them and just hope my post makes sense* reason for people to be suspicious of Crimsn kind of goes away.  Right now it kind of seems like CadCom is the leader for the Crimsn lynch based on knowing that Crimsn was targeted by an assassination role.  I kind of understand the reasoning behind the conversation here, but it doesn't really hold weight without any proof.

Adavantos, you seem to waffle back and forth pretty quickly today...  6 hours ago you seemed fairly convinced Crimsn was an Eliminator and then change to voting on Crimsn an hour ago based on the, relatively weak, CadCom argument.  Right now I'm going to go with CadCom as my vote.  I'm not sure at this point if CadCom is the one trying to cause the misdirection to Crimsn or is being set up by someone else, but I'm finding something off there.

[Mailliw73]

12 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Yeah. I'm thinking if they were a Spammer, the result would be different, unless the Spammers have more roleless.

Ah. But the claims could align with that result, yeah? I agree there. Would you check O3 next? It would influence one of the current lynch options. 

4 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

Well, Adavantos has a pretty fancy code, doesn't he. Unfortunately, I cannot use that particularly niche scan result to provide any information; however, I'll give you permission to share the information I shared with you using Adavantos's code, if you trust him. 

Elephant wants you to know T. 

[Amanuensis]

6 minutes ago, |247|-| said:

Adavantos, you seem to waffle back and forth pretty quickly today...  6 hours ago you seemed fairly convinced Crimsn was an Eliminator and then change to voting on Crimsn an hour ago based on the, relatively weak, CadCom argument.  Right now I'm going to go with CadCom as my vote.  I'm not sure at this point if CadCom is the one trying to cause the misdirection to Crimsn or is being set up by someone else, but I'm finding something off there.

Yeah. I thought Crimsn was an Eliminator because he voted on Temptation over a roleless. But this was before CadCom himself claimed to have attacked him. As soon as a "one vs one" scenario forms, it's best to resolve it quickly. CadCom makes 0 sense as a Spammer because once he was caught in his lie he would get lynched. Thus I'm taking their side.

EDIT:

@tiny wilson o3 was on my mind as well so I'll probably take that advice. T is a player I'm interested in, but what's the piece of info regarding T exactly?

Edited March 25, 2019 by Adavantos

[Sapphire Elephant]

3 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Yeah. I thought Crimsn was an Eliminator because he voted on Temptation over a roleless. But this was before CadCom himself claimed to have attacked him. As soon as a "one vs one" scenario forms, it's best to resolve it quickly. CadCom makes 0 sense as a Spammer because once he was caught in his lie he would get lynched. Thus I'm taking their side.

Please be discreet with the information you just learned; I've been working extremely hard to confuse the spammers, and to use my role to hard clear individuals. 

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Sapphire Elephant said:

Please be discreet with the information you just learned; I've been working extremely hard to confuse the spammers, and to use my role to hard clear individuals. 

Oh, nvm tiny. I get it. Cool.

[Sapphire Elephant]

I won't lie, despite some of the inherit confusion involved after the PMs have been closed, it's kind of fun juggling everything 

[Mailliw73]

Alright. Alv. I’m going to go with that for now, as with the things I’ve learned this cycle, I’ll probably end up voting for Rae or Alv. I’m not discounting Crimsn for now either. 

[Lumgol]

7 hours ago, Adavantos said:

I'll admit, something I learned in PMs made me trust Seventh, but now that he's claimed he has an extra life, I don't know what to think. Strategically it probably makes the most sense to strip him of his extra life, but ugh. I hate targeting people for their roles alone. I think they're probably okay?

Why? Why would it make more sense to strip him of his life if all of the roles that may give him an extra life are village? Strategically, it would make sense to either keep Seventh alive (if you trust him) or, if he's suspicious, lynch him because he's likely to be pulling off a desperate gambit and lying. Unless he's somehow immune to the lynch in such a way that doesn't involve extra lives and clever manipulation of spambot roles?

7 hours ago, Adavantos said:

If no one exchanged roles with him before me then I'm confident I can guarantee he's village.

I'd like to see said guarantee. Until then, I'm voting on Arand again. Ada, until you explain your reasoning as to why you trust Rand, it just seems like another attempt to defend a fellow spambot with little base in evidence.

[Steeldancer]

Well at this point, enough people have claimed that there is no one clear target for the spammers, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. I’ll probably need to start making a list. I also really hope Tiny isn’t evil, because he seems to be in the middle of everything. The conversion could be a genuine problem for this, even one person being lost could screw us over majorly. 

I think our best chance of a good lynch lies in the Cadcom/Devotary situation, which something weird is going on in.

[Amanuensis]

5 minutes ago, Mailliw772 said:

Why? Why would it make more sense to strip him of his life if all of the roles that may give him an extra life are village? Strategically, it would make sense to either keep Seventh alive (if you trust him) or, if he's suspicious, lynch him because he's likely to be pulling off a desperate gambit and lying. Unless he's somehow immune to the lynch in such a way that doesn't involve extra lives and clever manipulation of spambot roles?

I'd like to see said guarantee. Until then, I'm voting on Arand again. Ada, until you explain your reasoning as to why you trust Rand, it just seems like another attempt to defend a fellow spambot with little base in evidence.

Because he could just straight up be lying about having an extra life? If we strip him of it, we know. If he dies it's because he's a Spammer who lied. It's a win win.

Furthermore trusting Rand is the matter of him claiming a role to me that cannot be replicated by Spammer shenanigans. He is now trying to prove that role, so it makes 0 sense to kill him before he has the chance.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Adavantos

[Araris Valerian]

Adavantos attacking Elandera, who voted on Roadwalker

Quote by Fifth Scholar:

Quote

Steeldancer’s justification for voting on Rae seems fairly flimsy, and the fact that he attempted to defend what appeared to me to be a joke vote makes me slightly suspicious. Though I don’t have much time, I’d remark that I’m unsure where the support for Fura has come from, that lynching Rae or Road likely won’t yield terribly much, and that I intend to do a look at Ada and Arand when I get the time, as if the two are going to be taking such a central role in driving discussion, they should be a part of it as well. To all those who replied to PMs, I’ll get to those later (hopefully).

Emphasis mine

I'm also somewhat convinced that Itiah is village, based on his N1 post.

Player list (minus banned players and myself)(regular usernames)(bold is elim read, italics are village read/confim):

Elandera
Drought
Xino
Fura
Bard
Devotary
Rand
Steel
Itiah
Fifth
Cadcom
Lumgol
Snipexe
Alvron
Rath
Rae
Kidpen
Mailliw
Aman
Elephant
Walin

And now RL is calling, and I'd like to get something substantial up. In a couple of hours or so I'll try to look into the reasons behind today's lynch options.

[Amanuensis]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Adavantos attacking Elandera, who voted on Roadwalker

You can very clearly see Elandera's vote wasn't a factor in my "attack" in the slightest, and was even accompanied by me saying I'd rather lynch an inactive.

[Sapphire Elephant]

Note, if I straight up die, there is a high likelihood one of the individuals I claimed to is evil, and that trusting them was a terrible idea. I have to trust people if I'm going to get things done, but hopefully slowly revealing my identity in clear ways should make it fairly easy to identify where there was a leak. That isn't a problem for now, not really until next day frankly, but just for posterity I'd like to make that known.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Sapphire Elephant

[Mailliw73]

14 minutes ago, NotASteelClone said:

Well at this point, enough people have claimed that there is no one clear target for the spammers, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. I’ll probably need to start making a list. I also really hope Tiny isn’t evil, because he seems to be in the middle of everything. The conversion could be a genuine problem for this, even one person being lost could screw us over majorly. 

I think our best chance of a good lynch lies in the Cadcom/Devotary situation, which something weird is going on in.

 PMs get you far if you use them right and they’re my favorite tool in any game, so I’ve got lots of practice with them. 

@High Priest of Lord Tekiel Any chance you can clear up anything related to CadCom’s claim? 

Before the night is over, I’ll be sure to make sure that any information I have is spread among those who have proven a role to me. 

[Sapphire Elephant]

Also, Seventh Saint. If you are eliminator, you'll lose the second life, but if you get converted the spammers aren't getting much out of it. If you're a spammer, we have called your bluff, and you lose. I kind of agree with the win win of the situation. 

[CadCom]

Can we get an updated vote count?

If we dont get one in 30 minutes, I'll try to put one together when I'm back at my desk.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Fair enough. I am willing to give Devotary more benefit of doubt, but I would like to set up a surefire way to prove that. The way provided didn't seem valid enough. 

The best way I can think of is to have me be targeted by the vigilante, who would be blocked by my self-protect, and a non-kill night role, who would not be. That should be able to distinguish my protect from Vodiyehi's.

[Furamirionind]

Hmm, I am having a really tough time writing this right now. But I will do my best. Most of this will likely be based on D1, as that was when I was most attentive.  While I have read what we have of D2, I haven't really processed all of it yet.

Elandera -- Getting a general "Eliminator vibe. Was the first vote on Roadwalker. Could possibly be a distancing attempt, but if that was the case, I think she would have removed her vote once a second one was cast on him and he looked in danger of being lynched.

Metabardnition -- Calling out Roadwalker for lurking, and placing the fourth vote on him when all other votes had no more than 1. This doesn't seem like a spammer move to me. There was still 10.5 hours in the turn, and only needing 2 votes to tie with Roadwalker is completely doable.

Crimsn Chanarach -- While I was feeling off about her towards the beginning of the game, She tried to keep the tie broken in favor of Roadwalker, when the spammers would have wanted it broken towards Guest.

Aranduensis -- Looking to prove they have an Eliminator role. This is not something I see a spammer doing as it will come back to bite them while providing little benefit. 

NotASteelClone --I am felling pretty neutral towards Steel. The Steel/Fifth back and forth was interesting, however I felt Steel responded to the accusations the same way Fifth said village Steel would.  Being D2 however, I will need to go back and reread this. 

I think I am here -- I thought Itiah was suspicious until our PM conversation.  I was promised that Saphire would swear allegiance to Wilson to prove Itiah was Saphire.  However, this would be a VERY risky promise if Itiah was a spammer. If we hadn't lost PMs, causing the game to blow up, and Itiah revealing their plan, there is a good chance I would be targeting Itiah right now.

Seventh Saint -- I am not sure.  I think I only played one other village/elim game with Fifth, and I killed him before we interacted too much. I know Fifth and Steel have a history, and therefore would not be surprised if one of them was a spammer.  However, I feel like Fifth is a little "off" right now, but I don't know why yet.  I will be looking much closer into Fifth in a little bit.

@Cadmium Compounder -- I keep going back and forth on him.  Between banning Devotary or CadCom, I would pick CadCom right now.  He went out of his way to claim something to me, which was a very easy claim and it can't be proved.  However, having claimed attacking Dev, that would seem contradictory to what I was told (especially since their previous response to me would imply they are sticking by the story they gave to me in PMs).  I definitely want to hear more from CadCom, but currently they seem the most suspicious to me.

Mailliw772 -- Haven't seen enough of them to have a definitive opinion as to their alignment, however they seem to be playing similarly to their last game where they were village.

Gammalv Fiend -- I need to pay more attention to Alv as he has very much slipped under my radar so far this game.  I have a couple theories as to his role, which would make him a villager, however they are likely more speculation than fact.

|257|-| -- Not a lot to go on, but I think it is a bit strange that in his most recent post, he goes from criticizing Ada to voting on CadCom really quickly. Overall neutral read though.

Araris Valerian -- Neutral read.  I personally don't agree with his reasoning on Alv, but he is also likely catching up on the thread, so I wont criticize it too much.

High Priest of Lord Tekiel - I haven't played with Rae before, however this seems like a Eliminator!Rae to me. Roadwalker was up for the lynch D1, and Rae voted on Guest who was acting suspicious. It would have made much more sense for Spammer!Rae to vote an a player that already had a vote, as at that time there were something like 4 players with 1 vote and Roadwalker with 3.

Tiny Wilson -- In past games Maill has given off a strong NAI impression to me, yet this game I am getting a strong Eliminator impression.  Also with being the second vote on Guest when it would make more sense to put a second vote on anyone else for a spammer.  He also seems to be in contact with just about all of the people on here I am feeling are village, and seems to be decently trusted by most of them, again putting him higher on my list.  Of course, he is also the person I most expect to be converted right now... So there is that as well.

Adavantos -- I have been getting a general spammer read from them, but they seem to be trusted by Tiny Wilson and Saphire, so I am going to look more closely at Ada as well.

As for Xino, Snip, Kidpen, and May I suggest the Only Joe, I have absolutely no clue. It would be nice if some of them wanted to post more.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Furamirionind
Formatting + didn't say my read of Rae (though It was pretty obvious)

[Kidpen]

20 minutes ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

The best way I can think of is to have me be targeted by the vigilante, who would be blocked by my self-protect, and a non-kill night role, who would not be. That should be able to distinguish my protect from Vodiyehi's.

I'd like to know if this is reasonable to be pulled off. If it doesn't seem like it, Crimsn is probably our best bet to find a Spamster. Otherwise, I'll vote on Seventh Saint, as the logic of confirming his claim generally makes sense to me in the absence of another option.

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Kidpen

Working on it.