Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[Amanuensis]

• (5 + 1?) Crimsn Chanarach: Aranduensis, Adavantos, Cadmium Compounder, xinoehp512, Kidpen, 
• (2) Cadmium Compounder: NotASteelClone, |247|-|,
• (2) Seventh Saint: Seventh Saint, Sapphire Elephant, 
• (2) Aranduensis: Metabardnition, Mailliw772, 
• (2) alVoidus: Araris Valerian, tiny wilson, 
• (1) NotASteelClone: I think I am here.,
• (1) xinoehp512: Crimsn Chanarach, 
• (1) Sapphire Elephant: Furamirionind, 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Adavantos
Fixed vote count

[CadCom]

21 minutes ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

The best way I can think of is to have me be targeted by the vigilante, who would be blocked by my self-protect, and a non-kill night role, who would not be. That should be able to distinguish my protect from Vodiyehi's.

For that we would need the village vigilante, and someone who also has some other type of non-kill night role to target you. I'm fairly certain that at least a couple people will be trying to get more information from you regarding your role, so I expect at least a couple non-kill roles will target you tonight. The only thing we would have to hope for is the village vigilante who targeted roadwalker to now target you tonight, since I was the other one, and I no longer have access to the kill I used. 

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

@Cadmium Compounder -- I keep going back and forth on him.  Between banning Devotary or CadCom, I would pick CadCom right now.  He went out of his way to claim something to me, which was a very easy claim and it can't be proved.  However, having claimed attacking Dev, that would seem contradictory to what I was told.  I definitely want to hear more from CadCom, but currently they seem the most suspicious to me.

What I told you in the PM about my role is still true. It's important that what I claimed to you, I claimed during D1. not N1. I'll tell you the name of the role, using different letters from my first post. the number corresponds to the order of this letter. so for example, 1=H, because that was the first letter of my first message to you. Ignoring punctuation. 

6 12 37 2 58 37 7 41 2 6. Do you know anyone else with this role? If so, perhaps they have also explained the mechanics of the role to you.. 

I was working on a vote count, but adavantos has provided one, so I'll just send this post now. 

[Araris Valerian]

@Adavantos I know that you didn't mention the vote in roadwalker when you voted on Elandera. That doesn't change that there is a connection to be found there.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Araris Valerian

[Amanuensis]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Adavantos I know that you didn't mention the vote in roadwalker when you voted on Elandera. That doesn't change that there is a connection to be found there.

Ah, my bad. I should have clearly just let votes pile on an inactive so we wasted Day 1 discussion 

[Steeldancer]

18 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

• (5 + 1?) Crimsn Chanarach: Aranduensis, Adavantos, Cadmium Compounder, xinoehp512, Kidpen, 
• (2) Cadmium Compounder: NotASteelClone, |247|-|,
• (2) Seventh Saint: Seventh Saint, Sapphire Elephant, 
• (2) Aranduensis: Metabardnition, Mailliw772, 
• (2) alVoidus: Araris Valerian, tiny wilson, 
• (1) NotASteelClone: I think I am here.,
• (1) xinoehp512: Crimsn Chanarach, 
• (1) Sapphire Elephant: Furamirionind, 

When did I vote on CadCom? I’m 90% sure I have no vote placed down at the moment. 

[Amanuensis]

5 minutes ago, NotASteelClone said:

When did I vote on CadCom? I’m 90% sure I have no vote placed down at the moment. 

That's my bad. That should be I think I am here. I accidentally put your name because he retracted his vote from you in the same post.

• (5 + 1?) Crimsn Chanarach: Aranduensis, Adavantos, Cadmium Compounder, xinoehp512, Kidpen, 
• (2) Cadmium Compounder: I think I am here., |247|-|,
• (2) Seventh Saint: Seventh Saint, Sapphire Elephant, 
• (2) Aranduensis: Metabardnition, Mailliw772, 
• (2) alVoidus: Araris Valerian, tiny wilson, 
• (1) xinoehp512: Crimsn Chanarach, 
• (1) Sapphire Elephant: Furamirionind, 

Also: 

10 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Adavantos I know that you didn't mention the vote in roadwalker when you voted on Elandera. That doesn't change that there is a connection to be found there.

Did you see my post that came an hour after Elan voted, before anyone else even considered voting for Roadwalker?

 

[Furamirionind]

20 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

What I told you in the PM about my role is still true. It's important that what I claimed to you, I claimed during D1. not N1. I'll tell you the name of the role, using different letters from my first post. the number corresponds to the order of this letter. so for example, 1=H, because that was the first letter of my first message to you. Ignoring punctuation. 

6 12 37 2 58 37 7 41 2 6. Do you know anyone else with this role? If so, perhaps they have also explained the mechanics of the role to you.. 

Ok, I am happy with that. I know of no others with that role, but given what I know, and the name, I think I can work it out.

[Arrae]

2 hours ago, Mailliw772 said:

Why? Why would it make more sense to strip him of his life if all of the roles that may give him an extra life are village? Strategically, it would make sense to either keep Seventh alive (if you trust him) or, if he's suspicious, lynch him because he's likely to be pulling off a desperate gambit and lying. Unless he's somehow immune to the lynch in such a way that doesn't involve extra lives and clever manipulation of spambot roles?

I'd like to see said guarantee. Until then, I'm voting on Arand again. Ada, until you explain your reasoning as to why you trust Rand, it just seems like another attempt to defend a fellow spambot with little base in evidence.

Strangely enough, I do not remember why I quoted this. Alas, I am on mobile and cannot delete it. Tragedy!

2 hours ago, tiny wilson said:

 PMs get you far if you use them right and they’re my favorite tool in any game, so I’ve got lots of practice with them. 

@High Priest of Lord Tekiel Any chance you can clear up anything related to CadCom’s claim? 

Before the night is over, I’ll be sure to make sure that any information I have is spread among those who have proven a role to me. 

Personally, I believe that Cadcom's actions until now fit the profile of a villager seeking to look clever. While I question the execution of his gambit, it has revealed useful information, and I now see the wisdom in potentially lynching Devotary this cycle.

1 hour ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

The best way I can think of is to have me be targeted by the vigilante, who would be blocked by my self-protect, and a non-kill night role, who would not be. That should be able to distinguish my protect from Vodiyehi's

Devotary. What's the name of your role?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Kidpen said:

I'd like to know if this is reasonable to be pulled off. If it doesn't seem like it, Crimsn is probably our best bet to find a Spamster.

As CadCom says, my current proposed plan is definitely plausible, as there's a vigilante around and night roles that can target other players. Whether these roles decide it's useful to go through with the plan depends on their own inclinations, and whether I survive the lynch.

From CadCom's statements and the fact that nobody has explicitly counterclaimed them, I'm fairly confident that he did indeed try to kill me last night. As I don't see a reason for a spammer given a vigilante role to kill me, I would say CadCom is an eliminator.

Rand can apparently prove his role by keeping his vote on me, so I'm fine with that. I see he didn't vote at all Day 1, which would have provided a good opportunity to prove his role by voting for someone random, but we can afford an extra cycle to confirm.

Fifth apparently feels differently than me about roleclaiming in response to votes. A double life is not the best choice of convert, but immediately claiming could still be risky. I have seen Fifth vote for himself as a villager. I don't believe he's ever started the game evil, so data is limited as to whether he would do such a thing if he was evil.

Alv hasn't done too much other than repeatedly tying the vote between Road and HH. I could see him doing that regardless of alignment, so I'd like to see more from him before committing to that vote. For now, I can take my vote off of Xinoehp, since it isn't doing any good there. I may vote for Alv or Fifth later in the day, but I'll see if better options come up.

27 minutes ago, High Priest of Lord Tekiel said:

What's the name of your role?

My role is called firewall expert.

[Walin]

Glad to be in the game! There's seven pages of thread to read, not to mention the cycle beforehand, so I'll stave off on the analysis until later today. For right now, it'll just be RP. 

-----------------------------------------

Opening another new tab, Walin thought back to the days when he was a few-tabber. A young, naive Chrome-user who religiously trimmed his tab selection so that only three were in a window at a time, and only rarely opening a second window. He remembered how it all went south--doing a short research project, learning that it was sometimes worth it to keep eight open, and gradually expanding his range. Still, he never remembered opening a third window.

Well, that was because he was still a few-tabber, just a more practical one. All open tabs had to be active, he told himself, so if there was something he wanted to remember he just bookmarked it, never to look at it again. Either that, or he would revisit it daily, and lose sight of the real world around him.

Suddenly, Walin's phone vibrated. He'd gotten an email; why didn't his laptop notify him as well? It should know he only checked his email once per day; he spent more than 5 hours on YouTube and the rest searching definitions or basic facts. Google should know his internet activity if he spent so much time using its sites. Or rather, because it already did, it should accomodate them without him having to turn on any functions manually.

Oh well. Time to check the notificati---

-----

The 17th Shard. Of course! How could he forget? It had been months, nay, (months+1), since he had last been active there. And they needed his help.

Walin cracked his knuckles, dusting off his spreadsheets. Good to know they were still empty. He took out his notepad, also empty. He took out his pencil, out of lead. He took out his encryption codes, nonexistent, and his cryptography knowledge, mediocre. Walin nodded; he was back in business. Only now, he was taking a beginning CS course and knew some basic C++, which would give him an edge.

Maybe it was time for another first game, before he inevitably left again. This time, he'd analyze, or at least provide the others with a good time. Accusations or RP, adding something to the thread was good, for it provided evidence to look at. The others would know how to stop the spammers, and to trace them back to the source. Walin just had to do what he could to increase the chance of not getting deleted along the way.

He opened a fifth tab and signed back in. Two glorious notifications. A message received, and a message to read.

[Rathmaskal]

Hmmm, seems I need to argue a bit harder to try to clear Crimsn...since the net result of my last post has been two more votes against Crimsn...lol.

OK, so here's a summary of Crimsn's activity that we can see.

D1:

• A bit of RP plus a comment that we can't hard clear anyone until we kill Babaji
• Vote count + comment that elephant is confirmed good
• Some commentary on the current voting condition and starting to form some suspicions on Guest, while leaving open the idea that reklawdaoR is a spammer
• Shortly after vote for reklawdaoR to break a tie

N1:

• No activity

D2:

• CadCom notes that someone was supposed to attack Crimsn during N1 but Crimsn is still here therefore Crimsn must be an elim?  Logic here, I guess is that Crimsn must be Beirst1928.
• Brief defense implying that if there was a third kill attempt, it must be due to Babaji HATEing someone...and commenting that the spammers likely wouldn't have attempted to kill 2 out of 3 of Jon, Road, and Crimsn.  (I'm not sure if this was a misunderstanding of the accusation or something else.  Given that Road was clearly targeted by an Eliminator, - at least I'd assume the spammers wouldn't target one of their own - that would imply that Crimsn thought that would be another Eliminator target.)  OK, so this post is just a bit odd...but I don't think you can read spammer out of this.
• HPoLT notes a slight village read of Crimsn
• Metabardnition notes a slight elim read of Crimsn
• tiny wilson notes 'Crimsn has been sticking out to me lately'
• Kidpen notes that CadCom is basing a read off an attacker claiming that they were going for the attack.
• Seventh Saint asks for Crimsn to post to explain some of the confusion
• Adavantos notes "No real opinion" on Crimsn (among others)
• Adavantos notes what seems to be a village read on Crimsn due to pushing the Roadwalker (sorry, I keep bouncing back and forth between current alias and normal alias) lynch over guest (which would have been a lynch of a more powerful spammer)  This is something I don't really get - unless the spammers were playing a huge gambit to clear Crimsn (push a lynch against a stronger spammer over a weaker one then kill the stronger spammer with the night kill) this isn't something I would expect an elim to do as a vote on Guest here would have been just as strong in a vacuum for clearing a spammer as a vote on Road would have been.
• Aranduensis notes that CadCom making an accusation against Crimsn like this would only result in suspicion against CadCom if Crimsn flips village.  (This is a good point...I was hoping to hear more from CadCom as to where this information was coming from *Ninja Crimsn*...hadn't read through everything sufficiently until now to see that CadCom did say that he was the one who generated the kill action)
• CadCom defends the suspicion and fleshes out the theory.  Also notes that Crimsn's comment on Babaji being active isn't necessarily true due to CadCom actually having a one-time kill action.  The part that this argument seems to ignore is that you can make the same argument regarding Crimsn surviving the kill - just because an elim has an ability doesn't mean that the village doesn't have the same one.  (I find this hole in CadCom's logic kind of odd...)
• CadCom drops vote from Crimsn to allow Arandeunsis to confirm an ability
• Arandeunsis votes on Crimsn
• Crimsn notes a way to confirm not being Beirst1928 - votes on xino asking someone to move vote
• Adavantos votes on Crimsn due to the same logic that Aranduensis used
• CadCom hops back on Crimsn vote
• Crimsn defends original decision not to role claim - notes a willingness to move vote to someone else more deserving
• Adavantos notes that it's more likely Crimsn was targeted by Vodyehi
• tiny wilson notes that there is at least one claimed village role that could protect Crimsn
• Adavantos notes that it's unlikely that a villager would protect Crimsn after D1 action
• xino votes on Crimsn due to CadCom's admission
• Elandera avoids Crimsn bandwagon...for now
• CadCom notes a willingness to give Crimsn the benefit of the doubt if more information comes to light
• Araris notes no read on Crimsn
• Crimsn notes a way to clear from being Vodyehi protected by having multiple people target - one with kill, one without (I understand the theory behind this, but as soon as this becomes a known thing, Vodyehi could easily interfere)
• Fura provides a slight village post toward Crimsn
• HPoLT votes on Crimsn asking for a role claim
• Crimsn claims role name (seems like a reasonable name for claimed ability) and does a little analysis on a few others (I believe this is the ninja post since I have two windows open right now)

Whew, so basically, we have people voting on Crimsn because of some rather faulty logic right now.

[Mailliw73]

I’m curious Rath why you are trying to save Crimsn so hard. Just rather interesting. 

[CadCom]

On 3/24/2019 at 1:17 PM, Crimsn Chanarach said:

Once again, I am surprised by the sheer number of posts only to find extensive discussion of gods. Crimsn's theological opinions must be kept secret, for fear that her true identity be discovered. 

I suppose that means someone told you they would attack me? Three attacks in one night would mean that Babaji exists and the spammers used their double kill already, or there are two eliminator vigilantes. Multiple kill roles are rare, but possible I suppose. I don't see the spammers attempting to kill two of Jon, Road, and I, so if the former possibility is true there would have to be some major redirection. The redirection possibilities mean it's entirely possible there were only two attacks last night.

In this post, Chanarach suggests the idea that there might be some redirection going on. 

5 hours ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

A one use kill action, and you decided to use it night one to kill me. A one-time vigilante and a full time vigilante does make more sense than two vigilantes, though that presumes the circumstances under which you received your kill role cannot be replicated. I don't have time to respond more thoroughly now, but I am not Beirst, which can easily be proven by having an action successfully target me. I think the easiest way is for a vote manipulator to alter my vote for Xinoehp.

I don't believe that they can easily be replicated. But if Hoid can become an allomancer, I'm certain that anything is possible. 

4 hours ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

I am not the type of player who would immediately role claim upon a single vote being cast, even if I'd survived due to an extra life. If you really want me to claim a protection role, I can. If you see a better way for me to prove I'm not Beirst, I'm happy to move my vote to a more deliberative target.

I think that it is good to not immediately role claim, and this post does not make me believe that you are spammer any more than I already do. I'm still considering the possibility that the suggestion we've made to give you the option to prove your innocence will work and is worth it, but I'll get back to that. I hate having the full discussion today revolve around you and me, because that means we aren't discussing other possible leads as much, and at this point if you are a spammer, then the other spammers have already attempted to distance themselves from you in a way that makes them as un-suspicious as possible, so continuing to get feedback on our little discussion is not the best option for the villager. 

2 hours ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

The best way I can think of is to have me be targeted by the vigilante, who would be blocked by my self-protect, and a non-kill night role, who would not be. That should be able to distinguish my protect from Vodiyehi's.

Now you say you have a self protect. Granted just last post you said that you don't typically do immediate role claims when you are brought under suspicion. but you seem to be contradicting the earlier suggestion you made that there were ample redirects. 

7 minutes ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

As CadCom says, my current proposed plan is definitely plausible, as there's a vigilante around and night roles that can target other players. Whether these roles decide it's useful to go through with the plan depends on their own inclinations, and whether I survive the lynch.

From CadCom's statements and the fact that nobody has explicitly counterclaimed them, I'm fairly confident that he did indeed try to kill me last night. As I don't see a reason for a spammer given a vigilante role to kill me, I would say CadCom is an eliminator.

Rand can apparently prove his role by keeping his vote on me, so I'm fine with that. I see he didn't vote at all Day 1, which would have provided a good opportunity to prove his role by voting for someone random, but we can afford an extra cycle to confirm.

Fifth apparently feels differently than me about roleclaiming in response to votes. A double life is not the best choice of convert, but immediately claiming could still be risky. I have seen Fifth vote for himself as a villager. I don't believe he's ever started the game evil, so data is limited as to whether he would do such a thing if he was evil.

Alv hasn't done too much other than repeatedly tying the vote between Road and HH. I could see him doing that regardless of alignment, so I'd like to see more from him before committing to that vote. For now, I can take my vote off of Xinoehp, since it isn't doing any good there. I may vote for Alv or Fifth later in the day, but I'll see if better options come up.

My role is called firewall expert.

Based on what I know about role names, that is a very valid-looking name, especially suggesting the type of role you claim to have The fact alone that you would claim a name instead of just sticking to your argument that you prefer not to claim seems to suggest that you are more willing to cooperate than I would imagine a spammer would be. 

It also suggests that you are the slightly less powerful village version of Beirst1928, who build one of the best firewalls known to man. It's an interesting connection that would allow an explanation from 

16 minutes ago, |247|-| said:

Hmmm, seems I need to argue a bit harder to try to clear Crimsn...since the net result of my last post has been two more votes against Crimsn...lol.

Even though I also find this interesting, I don't find it alignment indicative, or at least spammer ai, because there have been a couple games I've participated in where everyone believes one thing, and I disagree with everyone, even though I'm also a villager, like most others. I'm actually leaning slight elim on Rath overall. But this may change depending on further evidence. 

[Furamirionind]

Hmm, Crimsn's role doesnt follow the naming convention I discussed with one of my (ex-)PM contacts... however it does sound believable enough that there may be multiple naming conventions.

Edit: ninjad

If CadCom thinks the name sounds good, I will take his word for it for the time being.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Furamirionind

[CadCom]

49 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Hmm, Crimsn's role doesnt follow the naming convention I discussed with one of my (ex-)PM contacts... however it does sound believable enough that there may be multiple naming conventions.

Edit: ninjad

If CadCom thinks the name sounds good, I will take his word for it for the time being.

I mean, the only names I know are those revealed by Joe, and my own. So I don't know how good the name sounds compared to more names. I just think it was either an accurate name or a clever attempt at an accurate name. 

[Alvron]

Wow, there is like 5 pages since I was last online. I doubt I'll be able to read everything before I have to go again, which ironically will likely be right after I type this post as I could've spent the time reading the thread rather than make this post.  I did a quick skim though and there doesn't seem to be anything I need to respond to apart from a couple of votes without reasons, which I'm fine with just leaving alone and a theory about if I would vote the way I did last cycle if I was evil.  I probably would have if I'm honest.  HH didn't have a role so me tying the vote up with Road would be a smart thing for me to do while also hiding behind the Gods of Luck and Chance love tied lynches thing.  I can't 100% say I would as it's very dependent of several other things like who I'm teamed up with and their thoughts.  Not many are as willing to leave it to chance like I am.  

I should be able to get back online before rollover so long as life doesn't interfere again.  If there is anything you want me to answer, please tag me as I'll be able to see those easier.

[Fifth Scholar]

The False Allure of Godhood

A dirty secret the Mods don’t want you to know is that the spikes that come with the position grant few powers beyond the reach of the site. Yet why is it that most Mods, and even a few people that are not Mods, feel the need to claim divinity? In a word: power. Or, perhaps more accurately, control. To stabilise their realms, ancient rulers invoked supposedly divine guidance to justify their tyranny, and a few were successful in casting themselves as gods in the process. Is that different from what has happened here? The invidious control of the Mods has spread nefariously beyond original, smaller spheres of influence. After Alvron announced his Gods of Luck and Chance, animal cracker purchases rose by 50% in a few short months among SEers. Orlok’s influence is clear—an open High Priest arguing for his Church of Enlightenment is all that is required to notice his pervasive influence. Perhaps Wilson has retreated to the Shadows, but few forget her feats in days past, and even now she rallies her PR Agents and Heralds to herself, seeking influence anew. How can SE survive the war in “heaven” that will assuredly ensue? 

The Great Hero of Latter Days

Our answer lies in the precedent established by our most recently retired mod: Seonid. Despite reaching a pinnacle of power, he limited his expansion to merely embodying Hoid, and letting his characters roam the Cosmere. Using his powers only for the good of others, he planted a great Vegetable Garden ere he left, full of all manner of living things which he entrusted to SE to nourish. However, half of his crop of beets has already been lost this year to the impending War in Heaven. Is this how the most powerful among us should be treating a humble and retired Mod? I encourage all of SE to rally behind Seonid and his precedent of noninterventionism, seeking the cultivation of our games and the resolution of the senseless conflict gripping the upper echelons of the Modhood. It is by this virtue alone that I, and perhaps all of you, may survive unscathed. Listen not to the lies of the High Priest; she may have abandoned her soul to Orlok, but we all need not. The impending war may be turned aside if all act together, and there is no need to cling to any one person in the hope that they will help you survive the coming conflict. Trust to yourself, and you may truly live. Or join me. I turn away nobody who is willing, and provide free Invested objects to any seeking to mediate disputes. The ASWA is selective, but you all have the inherent capacity to become servants of a Higher Cause—the abolition of inter-Shardic conflict.

---

RP aside, I hope to review the thread and post something substantial tonight. Hopefully I will also respond to everyone else’s concerns at that time as well. 

[Sapphire Elephant]

Too many gods in the SE pantheon... clearly, what we need is Kratos. 

[Fifth Scholar]

On 21/03/2019 at 1:04 PM, Crimsn Chanarach said:

Safely hidden behind her dustbringer mask, nobody would be able to tell that Crimsn was secretly a wolf. Even Fura's sheep were unaware of the predator in their midst. Those very, very tasty sheep. Crimsn suppressed a drool. She couldn't blow her cover by killing sheep just yet. Perhaps eating hamsters would sate her appetite for now. Later, perhaps, there would be sheep for supper.

Even at best, we can't hard-clear anyone unless we lynch Babaji day one or at some point kill a convert. Since there's a very good chance that someone using an ability not available to the known spammers is a village eliminator, if it is legal to swap role-names, that may still be useful.

Since Elephant mentioned the Keto diet, and there's someone signed up as Keto CadCom, I'm pretty sure Elephant is CadCom. @Sapphire Elephant, are you allowed to confirm?

HAHAHA, multiquote works across threads. That’s wonderful. 

Ignoring my unrestrained exuberance at being able to take a fresh look at the D1 lynch and not losing quotes, I picked out five posts that jumped out at me upon my reread of the D1 thread to analyse, because I really don’t have time to trawl through that whole thing and say everything that comes to mind. 

My first point is relatively minor, but I’d like to address that Devotary did attempt at the beginning of D1 to expose Elephant’s actual account, which we know to be truly village, even at the time. Though it’s not something I’d build a lynch case on, it’s worth noting when evaluating her posts as a whole, and contributes to my hesitation to clear Crimsn completely. 

On 22/03/2019 at 0:40 AM, Elandera said:

Alright, we've had pretty good turnout for the first 24-ish hours. The only one who hasn't posted is @reklawdaoR, so reklawdaoR. I'll remove the vote once you've posted. Probably.

As for analysis on everyone else, most posts seem pretty troll-ish. For now, I lean village on Fura (seemed honest about their opinions on Sapphire Elephant, and it would have been a good point had Joe not clarified). I'm a bit suspicious of Adavantos and Aranduensis. I can't really say what it is in particular (it may honestly be them having a good part of the troll-ish-ness of the game so far), but I definitely want to keep an eye on them.

I haven't really gotten any read on anyone else. Unfortunately, this weekend is a bit hectic for me (working overtime shifts along with a shift change means I only get one day off, which will be spent with my sister who's chosen the most inopportune weekend to visit), so I don't know how much I'll be able to delve into things until the next cycle.

I know this post by Elandera drew a lot of flak from several sources during C1, but I still find suspicious content here that is unmitigated by her later defences and refutations of this post. The vote on Roadwalker seems cast in such a way that is perfect for a distancing Spambot partner—flippant, easily retracted if pressed, and in short something I’d expect a teammate to use as distancing. The vote obviously could be legitimate, but there seems something inherently wrong with the tone here. While I accept Elandera’s later justifications for her suspicions on Ada and Arand, I’m less willing to give her a pass for the Road vote.

On 22/03/2019 at 2:24 AM, Adavantos said:

I'm pretty okay with voting for reklawdaoR, for the record, but the middle portion of this post is pretty flawed. Just in case I was wrong, I quickly skimmed through the whole day again and haven't seen "Aranduensis" do a single thing remotely trolly. Pretty much every one of his posts have been role analysis / clarifications. While I very clearly have been taking this game lightly, however, that can be explained pretty easily by the fact that it was the first 24 hours of the game. I also find it interesting that you didn't mention Steel, who I think has the most problematic metaplay in the game. On the first page I pointed out the flaw (he says never trust his clone, and it's impossible to determine which is the clone, therefore Steel can never be trusted). Sooo, yeah.

@High Priest of Lord Tekiel, if you were to return your vote to Elan, I would legitimately consider joining you  Elan's response seems way too easy for my liking, as if he just latched onto a pair of names that have been mentioned relatively frequently and justified it with half-formed thoughts. Villagers do this kind of thing all the time - especially early game - but so do people trying to look like villagers, since they lack any other direction + motivation to actually find the evils.

I'm pretty cool with killing inactives like @reklawdaoR, though. I always prefer them over people contributing, even minimally.

Furamirionind. I believe you missed a vote or two, but I need to get ready for Uni right now, thus I'll look over it later.

Ada echoes my thoughts on Steel and Elandera in this post, rightfully pointing out that Elan’s tone was off in her post. This further advances him as village in my eyes.

On 22/03/2019 at 3:52 PM, Mailliw772 said:

@Sapphire Elephant: I'm pretty sure that one of the interesting things about this game is that there are more Spammers than Eliminators, so since there's 23/24 players, there's probably around 12-15 spammers out of them.

The Eliminators knowing about some spammer abilities is then meant to balance out said outnumbering.

Also, a theory (not asking anyone to confirm or deny): What if reklawdaoR is Sapphire Elephant, and they've been looking at the thread but only posting as Elephant?

Lumgol not only attempts to reopen discussion into Elephant’s identity here, but also does so in a way that defends Roadwalker in the hedgy, heavy-with-implication kind of defence that Elims like to use to deflect attention from teammates; in conjunction with her vote on Rae, this makes me suspicious of Lum. 

On 23/03/2019 at 0:04 AM, NotASteelClone said:

Alrighty then, having read through the thread, I’m inclined to agree with Tiny. I get elephants argument for lynching inactives, but I’ve seen roles before that made it so talking in thread was difficult/restricted. And in a forum style game, roadwalker might have some sort of muted role or something. Anyway, Guest  quite easily has the single most suspicious post so far. While it can be viewed as purposeful trolling... it’s just SO SUSPICIOUS. So yeah. 

I never directly explained my issues with this post, and certainly don’t want to reignite an old argument with Steel, but this post continues to bug me. I’m mostly fine with the comments on Road—they certainly could be a soft defence coming from a spammer, but there’s also ample reason for a villager to make similar remarks. I’m more thrown by the vote on Guest. First of all, while I’ve never subscribed to vote-position theory, it’s worth mentioning that this was the third vote on Guest, a good point for a teammate to cement a bus and still look like an initial advocate of the vote—with Road being the only other serious candidate after the Rae lynch failed (which I’ll note Steel tried to push before it didn’t really go anywhere), any Eliminators would likely be best served by hopping on one of the two leading wagons and trying to clear themselves late in the cycle. This is exactly what Steel did. Second, the vote’s justification is both emotionally overexaggerated, and also conveniently prevents Steel from needing to say anything of substance about the Guest vote. Simply calling the post suspicious isn’t really specific, and the ambiguity is perfect for an Eliminator. 

TL;DR—After a brief reread of D1, I’ve found cause to be suspicious of Lumgol, Steel, and Elandera, in roughly that order. 

[Mailliw73]

Interesting, Seventh. I’ve had each of those three prove their roles to me. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by tiny wilson
Added red

[Fifth Scholar]

13 minutes ago, tiny wilson said:

Interesting, Seventh. I’ve had each of those three prove their roles to me. 

No offence, exactly, but how do I trust you? And if that’s the case, would they mind disclosing the roles? I’m a little annoyed/confused by all the PM action going on, and can hardly be expected to know that you’ve gotten supposedly verified claims from each of them. (In fact, if everyone could be a little more open about what happened in their PMs to clear person X, Y or Z, that would be wonderful.) Besides, even if they are villagers, I believe my analysis still stands. 

[Mailliw73]

7 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

No offence, exactly, but how do I trust you? And if that’s the case, would they mind disclosing the roles? I’m a little annoyed/confused by all the PM action going on, and can hardly be expected to know that you’ve gotten supposedly verified claims from each of them. (In fact, if everyone could be a little more open about what happened in their PMs to clear person X, Y or Z, that would be wonderful.) Besides, even if they are villagers, I believe my analysis still stands. 

It does and in no way did I mean to diminish your efforts or expecting you to know their roles/that they had claimed. Just an interesting observation I had. One that led me to distrust you just a bit more and, well, I partly want to see if you’re actually willing to lynch yourself. Being the first or second vote on yourself is easy; it’s when it gets to four or more that it’s hard. 

[Fifth Scholar]

I think I’ve only got three votes for the moment, counting my own, but I’m perfectly happy with my own vote’s current location.  

[Lumgol]

49 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

Lumgol not only attempts to reopen discussion into Elephant’s identity here, but also does so in a way that defends Roadwalker in the hedgy, heavy-with-implication kind of defence that Elims like to use to deflect attention from teammates; in conjunction with her vote on Rae, this makes me suspicious of Lum. 

First of all, it's been established earlier in the game that I was willing to investigate Elephant's identity so this isn't a new move for me.

Secondly, I wasn't even thinking about the fact that Elephant was proven village when I randomly wondered if Road's inactivity was connected to the presence of Elephant. I was merely trying to connect ideas together.

My vote on Rae was extremely early in the game when she had done almost exclusively trolling and a vote on Elandera for no reason. I took my vote off of her quickly when I realized that there were much better options and I currently tentatively trust Rae.

Oh, by the way, here are my general reads on some people:

Village lean: Rae, Elandera, Itiah

Not sure/want to investigate more: Fura, Steel, Wilson, Alv

Spammer lean: Devotary, Rand, Adavantos, Seventh

I haven't been focusing as much as I like on getting better and more complex reads on more people, sorry :/ but these are my tentative thoughts

[Mailliw73]

The fact that Ada, Devotary, and Seventh seem to show up on most players' suspicions lists makes me really want to lynch one of them today. The other votes seem not to be doing much.