Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[Droughtbringer]

20 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I have been having internet issues I took from Odium because I thought that people would not go for him.  I didn’t really think through the releasing part I’ll respond to the other things later.

I will point out... this is Sanderson ELIMINATION, we're all murder hungry people here

Never assume people won't try to kill others, no matter how much I try to stop it :/

 

[Arinian]

6 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

murder hungry people here

I'm hungry but it's not reason to murder me! 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

This late in the cycle, I'm assuming that if anyone was on Braize with Ruin, or if anyone scanned Pyromancer last night, they're not going to say anything. 

This whole game, even back to the first iteration of Night 0, Pyromancer has been asking people to PM him even when it wasn't possible for anybody but Hoid to do so. On day 1 before he claimed Survival, he claimed that

Quote

There is the fact that you could Roshar-exchange investiture for Cultivation's.  That is what I am attempting to do.

Later, after he claimed Survival, he said that he instead went for Autonomy and Odium, neither of which can be proved. Both of those Shards had been discussed as possible targets for theft. Fifth Scholar in particular suggested that villagers steal from those two Shards. It seems that if creating PMs was truly Pyromancer's goal, he would have gone for neglected Shards such as Dominion, Devotion, or Endowment, which had been labelled as Shards to not go for, or go for Cultivation herself. Twice failing to get Investiture when only 1/4 of the Shards were released is suspiciously bad luck, compounded by his claimed second double failure last night.

For the same reasons, I think that it is unlikely that Pyromancer is Hoid. A Hoid!Pyromancer could have created a PM last night and claimed he stole from Cultivation, or worldhopped to Roshar on Day 1 for a slower, but safer, way of faking the acquisition of Cultivation's Investiture. Is there anyone on Roshar willing to claim that Pyromancer is there? It's unlikely because last night he claimed to still be on Silverlight, but if so, I will retract this last claim.

Other possibilities are that he is Khriss and doesn't have any Investiture because he converted or went for released Shards, or that he has fulfilled his need to talk to someone by being converted. Even if Pyromancer is an extraordinarily unlucky Survival, it would appear that he is more inclined to help the elim teams and independent Shards than the village. So far, his major offer to the village if we let him live is that he'll launder our Shards, particularly Ruin and Odium. If he kept them as Survival, he would no longer have any need to listen to the village or give the Shards back as Survival cannot be killed by the lynch.

@TheYoungPyromancer, why shouldn't we lynch you even if you are Survival? I hear that your internet is having issues, but if you get it working before the end of the cycle, I am willing to listen and respond to your defense.

New vote tally

Pyromancer(6): MonsterMetroid, Hemalurgic Headshot, Straw, Randuir, Fifth Scholar, Devotary of Spontaneity
Straw(3): _Stick_, Eternum, Drake
Hemalurgic Headshot(2): Elbereth, Arinian
Arinian(1): YoungBard

 

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

what happens if Ruin destroys every world?

Seonid has PAFO'd this question before. It's not something I want to have happen, though.

[The Young Pyromancer]

NOOOO!  I just lost a 10-post multiquote and explanation in my defense.

I planned to get Hoid and Khriss to PM me, then rat them out to the village.

I think that Odium could have gone after Cultivation.  In which case, he will probably go after me.  Since I can still win with my Shard shattered, I would prefer to not actually die if he targets me.  Also, if someone worldhopped to Roshar, they could remove my vessel life, which would be annoying.  So, I would prefer to not be lynched, but it wouldn't be the worst.

Edited March 22, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Steeldancer]

...You know I just said I would do analysis. But, I'm sorry guys, I am just not feeling up to it. My brain is shot. I'm looking at posts and not reading anything at all. I think Pyromancer is a good choice. If you guys are right, good job noticing. I was bothered by the sheer luck of being survival twice. I mean, seriously, what would be the odds? So I think it makes sense as a cover, and then Survival would be fine with it, because they can be shielded from scrutiny. And now my head is already rejecting any more deep thinking. Sorry guys. I'll get in some thoughts and some RP tomorrow once I've slept and maybe that will help both my creativity and my analytic skills. 

[Seonid]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

@Seonid what happens if Ruin destroys every world?

PAFO

[The Young Pyromancer]

Meh.  I don't care that much.  Though I will note that if you accept the fact that I got survival the first time, it doesn't decrease the odds of me getting it again.

But I do want to FINALLY get a charge of investiture.  The Sand Lord!

[Magestar]

10 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

But I do want to FINALLY get a charge of investiture.  The Sand Lord!

This actually only works if he dies.

So yeah.

Good luck with that.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Oh.  RARG!!!!!

[Arrae]

Vote Tally:

Pyromancer (6): Magestar, Monstermetroid, Hemalurgic Headshot, Straw, Randuir, Fifth Scholar, Steeldancer
Straw (3): Drake, Stick, Randuir, Eternum
Hemalurgic Headshot (2): Livinglegend, Fifth Scholar, Elbereth, Arinian
Arinian (1): Bard
The Sand Lord (1): Pyromancer
Orlok (0): Monstermetroid
Fifth Scholar (0): Pyromancer
Stick (0): Randuir

Edited March 22, 2018 by Arraenae

[Jondesu]

9 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Vote Tally:

Pyromancer (6): Magestar, Monstermetroid, Hemalurgic Headshot, Straw, Randuir, Fifth Scholar, Steeldancer
Straw (3): Drake, Stick, Randuir, Eternum
Hemalurgic Headshot (2): Livinglegend, Fifth Scholar, Elbereth, Arinian
Arinian (1): Bard
Orlok (0): Monstermetroid
Fifth Scholar (0): Pyromancer
Stick (0): Randuir

You missed Pyro’s (probably irrelevant) vote on The Sand Lord.  

I know people are already thinking I’m playing it safe, but I’m going to openly bandwagon on Pyro  because I really want to learn the truth now, and I don’t know how much risk there is right now of vote manipulation preventing this lynch from going through.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Jondesu
Fixed formatting

[Arrae]

Just now, Jondesu said:

You missed Pyro’s (probably irrelevant) vote on The Sand Lord.  

I know people are already thinking I’m playing it safe, but I’m going to openly bandwagon on Pyro because I really want to learn the truth now, and I don’t know how much risk there is right now of vote manipulation preventing this lynch from going through.

You didn't see that. Nope. Nuh-uh. Not at all 

[Magestar]

Odium

[Fifth Scholar]

Yay, life is cruel. Just got done showering/ eating after my meet. And it’s 9:20 my time, and I have lots of homework. I’ll try to get a post up in the morning that’s more in-depth than what I’ve been doing. Sorry for my crem levels of activity this cycle. 

However, I’d like to point out that if Pyro does survive the lynch, he’s either lying about the Investiture he took (we should kill him) or he’s Hoid (we should slaughter him). I would find the second most likely. If Pyro does survive this lynch, assuming it goes through, I advise Dominion (if he’s villager) to redirect Pyro’s action onto himself, because he’ll probably try to convert before he’s vig killed/lynched tomorrow, and Hoid can’t take kill actions, so there’s no danger of him being killed. Although the likelihood of Dominion being in villager hands probably isn’t the highest among the different Shards.

Edit: By him, I mean Dominion, and I’m saying Dominion should redirect Pyro’s action onto themself, Dominion. Sorry, my wording was confusing. 

Edited March 22, 2018 by Fifth Scholar

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

However, I’d like to point out that if Pyro does survive the lynch, he’s either lying about the Investiture he took (we should kill him) or he’s Hoid (we should slaughter him).

If Pyromancer is Survival, he probably won't die because he would be able to Invest in himself and gain an extra life.

[Fifth Scholar]

Shards can’t Invest in vessels, which include themselves, as Vessels (unless I’m mistaken).

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Quote

Investment Role - The Vessel of Survival may not invest in another player. Instead, they may use their action during the Day Turn to gain an extra life until the end of the following Night Turn.

 

[Fifth Scholar]

Really? Dang, that’s annoying. Good catch, though. 

I suppose we’ll just let Odium settle things, then? Hmm. This kind of complicates things. I’m not sure if I like this, as it appears Pyro will survive the lynch basically no matter what, unless he’s Khriss or another Shard. But I suppose it’ll remove his protection tonight, at which point village vig kills can hopefully kill him. And on the off chance he’s someone else, we’ll still gain info.

[Magestar]

Odium.  Yeah I was on mobile and didn't know what to say.

And originally I was going to post a bunch of fluff so I could feel like I was contributing but I'm tired and also feeling rather blunt.

So instead I'm going to give this post explaining why I'm not really giving a decent post, which will probably be about as long as the fluff would have been anyway because I don't actually like writing fluff.

I'm really not happy with lynching Pyro anymore (Thanks El) and I don't really want to lynch Straw (Thanks everyone who reminded me that we keep lynching Straw D1) and HH isn't gonna get enough momentum at this point even though I think he might honestly be the best option, so I'm going to vote on him anyway, partially because I want to have a vote down and partially because I'm tired enough that I don't really care how people read this.  Also because he's really a bit suspicious.  And he honestly has a higher chance of gaining some momentum than a drought lynch.  Which would mostly be gut anyway.

Also when Orlok is feeling better, which I hope is soon, (Get well Orlok!  I hope you feel better, and not because I want to vote for you.) I might do some more analysis of him.

Huh this post worked out ok.

Wouldja lookit that.

[The Young Pyromancer]

I am Survival, so I will survive the lynch.  Please don't kill me Odium/Ruin.

The Sand Lord.  HH.

If you wish, you could lynch me two turns in a row, which would prove my neutral-ness.

Could someone please present a numbered list of the accusations against me?  I am not even completely sure what they are.

Edited March 22, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Sart]

That vote swung like crazy, which makes me instantly suspicious. I'm having a hard time verifying why people are saying that Straw gets lynched in the early game. The only example of that I can find is the most recent quick fix, where he was lynched day 2. One game does not a pattern make. That's the only evidence I've see in favor of him. I've still got a grievance with how he proposed blowing up Silverlight, after the thread had already come to the conclusion that it would benefit the Elims more than the village. I should note thatI was not in the most recent Quick Fix, so I am hoping my gut read isn't biased. Perhaps I am tunneling, but it didn't feel natural how the voting went. I don't believe we should lynch Pyromancer, as we won't be able to tell his alignment from doing so. We'll waste the lynch if we do that. I'm also suspicious of Orlok in this game. I don't have any evidence for that, but it's a gut feel in combination with him defending Straw.

[The Young Pyromancer]

OK.  I can go with that.  The whole lynch formed very quickly.

HH.  Straw.

[Eternum]

@Elbereth, I said I was confused back then because I hadn't finished reading the backlog yet. I did a few minutes before responding to your post, though.

Now, let's see. The lynch did move away very quickly, and I suspect that, at this point, both elim factions are involved. Straw is an elim, Pyro is an elim, and possibly Sart, given what he just posted.

What I think happened is:

Village starts lynch on Straw> Teammate of Straw tries to change the lynch target to Pyro> Pyro lynch gains momentum> Teammate of Pyro (Sart) tries to lynch Straw again.

If I'm right, then both Pyro and Straw are Elims, but I'd rather have a successful lynch, so I'm fine with killing Pyro

[livinglegend]

9 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Could you clarify those reasons anyway, even if they're obvious, and tell me why a single invested Shard is dangerous enough that it isn't worth the side effect of everyone on the world getting charges from it?

Hmm. My reasoning was I didn't want to give the conversion factions a foothold, but you have a good point. If I argue that Autonomy should be left one or two aspects as a hedge against ruin or odium, the same should be true of the Standard of Harmony. Maybe even more so as you've pointed out that we can glean investiture by being on the planet as opposed to having to lynch the aspect to get the investiture. 

9 hours ago, Elbereth said:

More generally, I'm wary of this post because it's fairly clearly drawing focus onto Shards and thus away from Hoid/Khriss. And while the Shards are clearly more interesting to talk about - look at Orlok's data of relative mentions - that only means we need to be more careful not to ignore the conversion teams.

You and Orlock are both correct that it is a lot of fun to talk about shards. Even more so than the conversion factions because I would assume that most if not all of us are slightly infatuated with the idea of becoming a vessel. Plus, with two to one shards to players compared with the almost five to one odds of being converted to a faction, we all have higher hope of obtaining shardic power. /rant

More importantly, I feel that we need to treat all potentially thirteen conversion factions as threats. @Seonid I apologize if this is answered elsewhere, but does the game end as soon as one of the fourteen factions reaches their goal? 

If that is the case, it seems to me that Hoid and Kriss have win conditions that take longer than some of the shards, so the shards will take precedence. You're right we can't ignore them, but we can fight them in an organized manner.

(Wow, rereading this I sound angry. That is not my intention. you brought up valid points and I appreciate you challenging the way I have thought about this.)

8 hours ago, Arinian said:

Also getting somewhat bad feeling about El and livinglegend but that's mostly gut read. Maybe I can pull something from their posts but I'm not going to lie, right now I'm just to lazy to analyze their posts.

Ouch! is this because I was willing to lynch you last cycle? I apologize. Any info was better than the no lynch.

6 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

For the same reasons, I think that it is unlikely that Pyromancer is Hoid. A Hoid!Pyromancer could have created a PM last night and claimed he stole from Cultivation, or worldhopped to Roshar on Day 1 for a slower, but safer, way of faking the acquisition of Cultivation's Investiture. 

That is a really good point that I hadn't thought about. As such, I would prefer to put our attention elsewhere. I still feel like Pyromancer is Survival and so I don't see a whole lot of point in lynching them. Right now we think they are either Survival or Kriss. If we lynch them and they live then they are either survival or Kriss. This seems circular and almost pointless. Maybe I'm missing a bigger picture.

5 hours ago, Magestar said:

Odium

Just yes. so much yes. And I might add Hoid.

2 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

If you wish, you could lynch me two turns in a row, which would prove my neutral-ness.

Could someone please present a numbered list of the accusations against me?  I am not even completely sure what they are.

The issue with this is we lose all information we get from confirmed villagers (and/or advantage we get from lynched eliminators) for the next two turns in exchange for a soft clear on you. I'm not a huge fan of this bandwagon, anyway. Here, let me find a vote tally.

Pyromancer (8): Magestar, Monstermetroid, Hemalurgic Headshot, Straw, Randuir, Fifth Scholar, Steeldancer, Eternum, Livinglegend
Straw (3): Drake, Stick, Randuir, Eternum
Hemalurgic Headshot (4): Livinglegend, Fifth Scholar, Elbereth, Arinian, Magestar, Pyromancer
Arinian (1): Bard
The Sand Lord (0): Pyromancer
Orlok (0): Monstermetroid
Fifth Scholar (0): Pyromancer
Stick (0): Randuir

I'll go back and gather as much evidence as I can for both leading candidates and get back with a vote before the cycle is over. First I need to post this before I lose it all.

 

Edit: darn it Eternum. That is a solid point. Hoid Pyro For now. I'll see what else I can find.

Edit 2 updating vote counts

Edited March 22, 2018 by livinglegend

[Stick.]

34 minutes ago, Eternum said:

If I'm right, then both Pyro and Straw are Elims, but I'd rather have a successful lynch, so I'm fine with killing Pyro

Why do you think the Straw lynch won't be successful? If pyro is survival the lynch may not even go through. If you and legend both vote straw then it's a successful lynch.

Wait nvm I was going by legends vote tally but turns out it's way off 

Edited March 22, 2018 by _Stick_