Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[Straw he/him]

Huh. I missed the votes on Pyro. I’ll switch my vote from the Sand Lord to Pyromancer.

Edited March 21, 2018 by Straw

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

3 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

@Hemalurgic Headshot, thank you. That was far more useful than anything else you've said this cycle. I was going to point out the same that Rand did, which is that Fusing Shards would get noticed pretty fast, and so that's a fairly unprofitable gambit for Hoid in my opinion. Also, would you justify your claim that lynching him is a good basis for information? As I see it, pretty much any other player is more likely to give useful information from this lynch than Pyro's. 

I'm not yet removing my vote on you, but am much more likely to do so now once I consider my other options. 

I do understand what you are saying, that Fusing Shards would be unprofitable, but by handling and returning Shards, Hoid would learn who had what Shard, and could plan accordingly.

As for information, I see that if Pyro were indeed Hoid, or Khriss, then their Elim teammate would be very careful with their vote, in such a tenuous lynch such as currently. We could possibly discern an Elim ally from the vote patterns, and on top of that we would know that Pyro is either Hoid or Khriss, which is incredibly beneficial for the village.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I’m going to read through the thread shortly, and would note that the following comment is made without having considered this cycle’s events, but we’re not really going to lynch Straw in the early game again, are we? I might come back shortly to change my mind, but irrespective of the thread, we have a real tendency to misread and mislynch Straw in the early game. Albeit misattributed to Einstein, the quote “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” seems to be to be relevant.

[DeTess she/her]

5 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

As for information, I see that if Pyro were indeed Hoid, or Khriss, then their Elim teammate would be very careful with their vote, in such a tenuous lynch such as currently. We could possibly discern an Elim ally from the vote patterns, and on top of that we would know that Pyro is either Hoid or Khriss, which is incredibly beneficial for the village.

I'm not so certain. As I mentioned before, a lynch on Hoid would result in him absorbing the hit using preservation's investiture, and so would be a perfect opportunity for some bussing. If pyro's Khriss/ a convert, and has some preservation, then the same case applies. If Pyro isn't survival, and doesn't have a way to protect himself then the above does apply, of course.

5 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’m going to read through the tread shortly, and would note that the following comment is made without having considered this cycle’s events, but we’re not really going to lynch Straw in the early game again, are we? I might come back shortly to change my mind, but irrespective of the thread, we have a real tendency to misread and mislynch Straw in the early game. Albeit misattributed to Einstein, the quote “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” seems to be to be relevant.

That is the one thing that makes me somewhat wary of the lynch. The case as a whole seems reasonably solid to me, but we have a tendency to lynch straw early in many of the games in which he plays. The only option I'm really seeing right now apart from him is Pyro, but that's not really optimal either.

Edited March 21, 2018 by randuir

[Straw he/him]

So far, the votes on me seem a bit suspicious. Randuir and Eternum seem to have hopped on the lynch train without giving any reason why, Drake seems to think I’m Ruin (I’m not), and Stick gave a fair amount of reasoning, but hasn’t yet replied to my reply.

[DeTess she/her]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

So far, the votes on me seem a bit suspicious. Randuir and Eternum seem to have hopped on the lynch train without giving any reason why, Drake seems to think I’m Ruin (I’m not), and Stick gave a fair amount of reasoning, but hasn’t yet replied to my reply.

My reasons where basically that I agreed with Stick. You're right that I didn't add anything of my own, but I think she covered most of the things worth mentioning.

[Straw he/him]

@randuir Did you read my reply to Stick’s vote?

[DeTess she/her]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

@randuir Did you read my reply to Stick’s vote?

 

Quote

1. I also think that a lynch would be good. However, the only real lynch so far has been on me, and I’m not exactly inclined to vote for myself.

This isn't really a point in favor of not lynching you.

Quote

2. That’s a valid point, but I’m also failing to see what information the village gets from lynching me.

The information that we'd gain is pretty much the same information that would be gotten from lynching anyone else that has been somewhat active. Most information comes from who decided to vote on you and why, while analysis of your posts after you died might show something new in light of your confirmed alignment. No clear lines in the sand have been drawn yet, but if you've got a suggestion for someone we could lynch that would provide significantly more information than lynching you, I'm all ears.

Quote

3. Yes, I made a bit of a mistake there. I then realized that Autonomy might not ally with us, and it’d be a bad idea to give one Shard too much control over the lynch.

I mentioned that that was a possible explanation for you changing your mind. when I voted on you. It's also a possible excuse if you had other reasons to do what you did.

Quote

4. Yes, Mage could have lied, but I wasn’t that suspicious of it and I was using as an attempt to make it so if it was discovered in the future that he had grabbed a certain type of investiture N0, the village could check it against his previous claim and then lynch him if it turned out he had lied.

This seems like justification after the fact. I also don't see why you'd extort information about mage's action (which can be rather valuable to both village and elims) if you weren't that suspicious of mage.

I'm not dead-set on lynching you, straw, but I'm also short on alternatives.

[Seonid he/him]

1 hour ago, MonsterMetroid said:

@Seonidif autonomy is killed or shattered do their aspects remain?

They do

[Stick. she/her]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

. I also think that a lynch would be good. However, the only real lynch so far has been on me, and I’m not exactly inclined to vote for myself.

There's those votes on Pyro, and you could always vote on somebody who hasn't been voted on but you feel is suspicious. Hopping on wagons isn't the only option.

1 hour ago, Straw said:

That’s a valid point, but I’m also failing to see what information the village gets from lynching me.

That would depend on what your alignment turns out to be TBH. Then we can get info out of things like who voted on you, who defended you, who subtlety defended you, etc.

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Yes, I made a bit of a mistake there. I then realized that Autonomy might not ally with us, and it’d be a bad idea to give one Shard too much control over the lynch.

I agree with the second part of the sentence, but what made you change your mind? As in, what made you believe that Auto would likely be with an elim?

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Yes, Mage could have lied, but I wasn’t that suspicious of it and I was using as an attempt to make it so if it was discovered in the future that he had grabbed a certain type of investiture N0, the village could check it against his previous claim and then lynch him if it turned out he had lied.

Fair, I suppooose. So you didn't really think that Mage was Odium?

26 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I'll note that I'm decently certain it's a vote with each aspect per each action Autonomy has, which is two extra votes as a reasonable maximum. Which isn't great, but isn't infinite, either. 

Oh. That's still bad if Auto is with an elim.

27 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I noticed that, too, and decided it wasn't worth pointing out.  I do think it points slightly towards villageness, though, as if she were self-aware, elim!Stick would notice the irony and probably avoid it. 

yay? XD

19 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’m going to read through the thread shortly, and would note that the following comment is made without having considered this cycle’s events, but we’re not really going to lynch Straw in the early game again, are we? I might come back shortly to change my mind, but irrespective of the thread, we have a real tendency to misread and mislynch Straw in the early game. Albeit misattributed to Einstein, the quote “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” seems to be to be relevant.

See the thing is, my gut always tells me that Straw is a villager but my mind continues to point at reasons for why he probably isn't! Much internal conflict. :notlikethis:

I...think I'll keep my vote on Straw for now. I'm going to sleep, but I will wake up early tomorrow (#priorities) and see if I should change my vote before the turn ends.

Ninjad by Rand

[Droughtbringer]

7 minutes ago, Seonid said:

They do

Does the Aspects remaining transfer to the new holder? And same if the shard is passed?

[Elbereth she/her]

 

22 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I do understand what you are saying, that Fusing Shards would be unprofitable, but by handling and returning Shards, Hoid would learn who had what Shard, and could plan accordingly.

Interesting. That's true, and definitely useful for Hoid. And, in fairness, it would explain why Pyro thought that claiming Survival is actually a good idea - I don't think it actually helped him in the lynch any, and he would've survived anyway. 

22 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’m going to read through the thread shortly, and would note that the following comment is made without having considered this cycle’s events, but we’re not really going to lynch Straw in the early game again, are we? I might come back shortly to change my mind, but irrespective of the thread, we have a real tendency to misread and mislynch Straw in the early game. Albeit misattributed to Einstein, the quote “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” seems to be to be relevant.

While this is true, to my recollection every single one of those lynches were for not providing enough explanation for a vote or comment. This is different, I think, because there are more specific reasons and suspicions than 'he's acting strangely'. 

15 minutes ago, Straw said:

So far, the votes on me seem a bit suspicious. Randuir and Eternum seem to have hopped on the lynch train without giving any reason why, Drake seems to think I’m Ruin (I’m not), and Stick gave a fair amount of reasoning, but hasn’t yet replied to my reply.

This comment does strike me as really off, though. It's highly likely that not all of these people are evil, and it's entirely possible to be lynched by villagers - why immediately jump to thinking that anyone voting on you must be evil? You also describe each of these actions as suspicious, and I don't think any are. Hopping on a lynch train, potentially, though bandwagoning happens just as often with villagers as eliminators in my experience. But thinking you're Ruin - why is that suspicious? Why is not replying to your reply suspicious? 

 

[MonsterMetroid]

2 hours ago, Elbereth said:

I think it's interesting, and would be a good play for an evil team. I'm also fairly certain that even if evil, he'll be able to survive the lynch, and am not sure there's a particularly good way to resolve his alignment except for being lynched and then hit by either Odium/Ruin (which seems unlikely if they're not village, though Odium might be pleased that we're doing his work for him, which is not particularly useful either). Basically, I think it's worth consideration, but would rather lynch others who are more likely to actually die for at least this cycle. If he turns out to be Survival, we'll have wasted at least a cycle, and I think the first few cycles particularly ought to be about gaining as much information as we can. 

 

16 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Also, would you justify your claim that lynching him is a good basis for information?

For one it will tell us if he is lying or not. If he dies then we get information, if he lives then we know

1. he is survival or
2. he does have investiture (which he claims not to right now)

Now if he does survive you may say well how can we tell which it is 

well if he has investiture then it is one of four possibilities

1. he is village and took from preservation night 0 and lied to us ( I dont see this as likely but it is possible)
2. He is khriss took from preservation and another shard night 0 instead of converting
3. He is hoid ( I dont think this is likely as I will explain below)
4. he was village (then converted) and took from preservation night 0.

Now I will explain why I strongly doubt that Pyro was hoid when questioned by orlok what he did the previous night he promptly responded with

Quote

I took investiture from Autonomy, for the scans, and Odium, to protect myself.

And no, I did not get either shard. I can't, because I am already a Vessel

If he was hoid I doubt he would have so quickly came up with two shards that he would have chosen so these two ring true to me so I think he has to be khriss or survival. But why would Survival need a charge of odium to protect himself? Wouldn't preservation or ruin be better protection?

In any case even if he was survival we couldn't know that he actually told us his actual win condition. His actual win condition could be "be the last one alive" for example

Overall there are too many things that don't add up and whether he survives a lynch or not will dramatically  narrow down the possibilities with ruin or odium probably ensuring that he actually does die if he survives.

[Arinian]

No! Not Straw lynch! Not again! I've seen enough of this lynches. Yes straw makes many weird, suspicious things but he is he, fire also hurts if you will try to jump head forward in campfire.

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Much internal conflict.

About internal conflicts, I'm starting to get old almost forgotten feeling... feeling that @_Stick_ is suspicious(very suspicious) , so she is surely village.

@Seonid in previous Shardic game in write ups you separated kills\protects\extra lifes from different Shards will we be informed if someone was saved by extra life from  Survival's investment ability or Preservation's investiture?

My main suspicion at this point is HH, he looks not very willing to give his thoughts, I don't know maybe it's just me but looks like he tries to slide under the blade.

I still think Magestar is Odium\Autonomy.

Also getting somewhat bad feeling about El and livinglegend but that's mostly gut read. Maybe I can pull something from their posts but I'm not going to lie, right now I'm just to lazy to analyze their posts. 

@Young Bard I already stated my reasons for no lynch on previous turn(twice!) and not going to repeat them. Of course my reasons is not very helpful and logical but it was all my reasons(no nefarious plans under the name of the greater good) if you think that I'm lying it's your right

About Pyro, better not to ask my opinion about him because I want to get Survival, so I don't care if he lying or not 

I will vote for HH because looks most suspicious for me and because Straw, I even don't want to talk about Straw he is Straw...

[DeTess she/her]

5 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

If he was hoid I doubt he would have so quickly came up with two shards that he would have chosen so these two ring true to me so I think he has to be khriss or survival. But why would Survival need a charge of odium to protect himself? Wouldn't preservation or ruin be better protection?

Well, the two Shards he chose where the safe picks, as no one can disprove he took from them. If he'd mentioned an unreleased shard, and two other people claimed to have also taken from that shard then he'd be in trouble.

You make a good point about him taking from Odium though, as it doesn't make sense. It would serve his win-con for both Odium and Ruin to remain contained, so why risk breaking any of the two free?

I'm going to be logging off for the rest of the cycle soon-ish, and will re-evaluate my vote on Straw before that, as I might switch to Pyro.

Edited March 21, 2018 by randuir

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

12 minutes ago, Arinian said:

My main suspicion at this point is HH, he looks not very willing to give his thoughts, I don't know maybe it's just me but looks like he tries to slide under the blade.

I will vote for HH because looks most suspicious for me and because Straw, I even don't want to talk about Straw he is Straw...

I don't look very willing to give my thoughts? Exactly what are you referring to? The reason why I haven't given very thorough analysis before is because I didn't have any analysis to give. However, I have put in the effort now, and have actually read the rules through and through.

You mentioned you want Survival. Why don't you vote on Pyro then? That doesn't make any sense.

[MonsterMetroid]

12 minutes ago, Arinian said:

No! Not Straw lynch! Not again! I've seen enough of this lynches. Yes straw makes many weird, suspicious things but he is he, fire also hurts if you will try to jump head forward in campfire.

Haha I find this funny considering how I defended you in that last QF with a similar statement haha. Thats why I dont really have a strong elim read on straw but it will be interesting to see what orlok has to say to.

That being said Arinian why do you think mage is Odium? I missed that

12 minutes ago, randuir said:

You make a good point about him taking from Odium though, as it doesn't make sense. It would serve his win-con for both Odium and Ruin to remain contained, so why risk breaking any of the two free?

Yeah this is what particularly bugged me because that combination makes sense for a lot of roles but survival isnt one of them unless he is lying about his win con... in either case something smells fishy between this and the other points i made earlier

[Arinian]

You started to give your thoughts after enough pressure on you, when it started to smell fried.

Just now, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

You mentioned you want Survival. Why don't you vote on Pyro then? That doesn't make any sense.

It makes perfect sense I want Survival Shard but that's would be unfair so I'm not going to vote for Pyro just to get Shard.

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

Just now, Arinian said:

You started to give your thoughts after enough pressure on you, when it started to smell fried.

It makes perfect sense I want Survival Shard but that's would be unfair so I'm not going to vote for Pyro just to get Shard.

You are stating the correct events, but with the wrong reasons.

Okay. Your honor prevents you from undercutting someone with ulterior motives. I respect that.

[DeTess she/her]

After consideration, I've decided to switch my vote from straw to pyro. The longer I think about it, the less pyro's stated actions seem to match his stated win-con. Taking form Autonomy I can understand if he wanted a way to find Odium if Odium went on a shard-killing rampage, but taking investiture from Odium himself just doesn't match up, as it icnreases the chance of Odium getting out early and isn't of that much use if your win-con is surviving, as the major threats towards you need multiple kills to go down, while a single lynch will fix the issue (which is what the autonomy investiture is for).

[Arinian]

Just now, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

You are stating the correct events, but with the wrong reasons.

Not going to lie, but I made fast skim through thread and maybe I really understood something in wrong way. But I'm not going to reread thread again(right now) and for now will stay on how I see what happened.

6 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

That being said Arinian why do you think mage is Odium? I missed that

His position, Mage looks pretty unsure. He have suspicions but not trying to push for them, at first I interpreted his behavior as Survival trying to look villager but after Pyro's roleclaim, I think that Mage's behavior can suit for Odium or Autonomy, better to say Odium or Autonomy which trying to go with Shard win condition... hmm... maybe he is Ruin, really not sure.

Of course it also can be elim behavior, but something in his posts makes me believe that he is one of this 3 Shards.

[Straw he/him]

@Seonid what happens if Ruin destroys every world?

[Steeldancer he/him]

Ok, I just got back from my mentally exhausting shift at work, but I'll finally have enough time to do the analysis I've been promising but not delivering. Soon as I get my SS homework done. I will refrain from voting until I do that. 

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Come on. I have a great idea, check my phone briefly, and HH ninja’s me. I think Pyro is Hoid, so I’ll vote him for now. Still suspect you though, HH. Still at my meet and freezing, but hopefully I’ll be home in a few hours.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I have been having internet issues I took from Odium because I thought that people would not go for him.  I didn’t really think through the releasing part I’ll respond to the other things later.

Edited March 21, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer