Mid-Range Game 23: A Desperate Alliance

[Yitzi2]

5 hours ago, asterion137 said:

I asked for protection and they said they would be securing protection for me that night. Then later they said they were in contact with a claimed highprince. Now that I look back at the PM they didn't really assure highprince protection but I read it that way since they were talking about how good it would be if a voidbringer or Ghostblood died to the highprince.

I'm afraid this was my fault; I (yes, I'm the one who was asterion's contact at the time) meant to ask whether you wanted it (you might not, if you were concerned about the veracity of the claim), but failed to be as clear as I should have been (I'm not quite sure why I wasn't clearer, as reading it over I can see how unclear I was).

And I'll vote Jondesu as well.  (Though, if he's right about Voidbringer counts, we've still got 1-2 more to deal with.)

EDIT: Another point: Elbereth mentioned last cycle the case that the Ghostbloods know who the Voidbringers are, because they claimed in their doc.  The hit on another Voidbringer (and one without protection) this cycle supports that theory.

If this theory is true, that would imply that the Voidbringers, at least, are (or, for 2 of them, were) under the impression that the Parshendi as a whole are supporting them, i.e. betraying the Alethi.

Personally, I find that a bit hard to believe, but I think it still bears mentioning.

EDIT 2:

4 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I'm slightly disappointed. Sani is supposed to be my subtle fast talking character, but instead i'm going to have to play this game straight forward.

I have made up my mind. I will only be analyzing the Alethi players from now on. I will be hunting for the sons of Honour and the Ghostbloods among them as i pursue the Unaligned peace Treaty Goal. As a player of Eighty Splendid Sons, i can do no less.

Yesterday, when I analysed the thread, i found 5 people who i thought might be sons or heavily working with the sons: Yitzi, Flash. Asterion, Stick, and StrikerEZ.

Of those 5, I am most confident in Orlok Tsubodai's Honour (Or lack thereof? dunno). The Unaligned players are far more Neutral than actually a faction. They can win with the other Unaligned faction, by themselves, or with their associated evil faction. Their only win condition is to survive. In such a game, i would expect Orlok to actively pursue this neutrality. (Go look at L35 Miz for a clear cut example) But Orlok has made it extremely clear that he is actively working towards the win condition of the Sons of Honour. All of his actions, both apparent and claimed, have backed up his intent. By all appearances, he is an Artifabrian Son of Honour, and i will do my darnedest to get him lynched. 

I'd rather take the victory that this game is about, rather than the quick and dirty victory.

So you name 5 people, and then "of those 5" pick someone who isn't actually on the list?

Edited July 16, 2017 by Yitzi2

[xxGaea]

I am striving for a Neutral victory in this game, so I will also be voting for Orlok, because he isn't playing in a way that is favouring said neutral victory. If he isn't an actual Son of Honour, it seems incredibly likely that he is at least helping them in some way. I would much rather lynch anyone who isn't striving for an unaligned victory between the two public factions. I think we should wait longer to lynch Jondesu, like Alvron was talking about. We shouldn't be lynching only Parshendi players--even if we have reason to believe they are evil. As I said, I would much prefer a victory for both the Alethi and Parshendi. After all, this is supposed to be a Peace Treaty.

[A Joe in the Bush]

17 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

So you name 5 people, and then "of those 5" pick someone who isn't actually on the list?

*Squint* Uhhh, yes. yes i did. i could have sworn i sad yesterday that Orlok was a Son of Honour. Lemme check my notes. *Leaves tab and goes to check note Doc* Hmm, I have Orlok down as a (2/4/1), and I have stick down as a (1/1/-1). Stick wasn't supposed to be in my five Sons of Honour reads, Orlok was. That got corrected in my notes, but not my actual post. Thank you for pointing that out.

[Yitzi2]

4 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

*Squint* Uhhh, yes. yes i did. i could have sworn i sad yesterday that Orlok was a Son of Honour. Lemme check my notes. *Leaves tab and goes to check note Doc* Hmm, I have Orlok down as a (2/4/1), and I have stick down as a (1/1/-1). Stick wasn't supposed to be in my five Sons of Honour reads, Orlok was. That got corrected in my notes, but not my actual post. Thank you for pointing that out.

You're welcome.

[Jondesu]

7 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

I'm an Artifabrian, and have scanned Jondesu, who is a Ghostblood.

Edit: I was roleblocked this cycle, and made the scan on D1. I don't think my vote should have been counted.

Yeah…I have to say, I kinda expected this.  The Sons are trying to get the lynch to do all their dirty work, and it won't matter if a few of their members are discovered by false claims, because by the time that happens, the Parshendi won't have hardly any voting power left. At that point, the unaligned Alethi will have a much better chance of reaching a successful win con if they just work with the Sons, and this game will be over quickly.

I'm going to of course vote against Orlok, who I can only assume must be a SoH, or an unaligned Alethi who has just solidly thrown in with them.

[Steeldancer]

I earlier stated my intentions to actively work against any ghostbloods. They want normal people like me dead, and I want to stay alive. jondesu . 

[Yitzi2]

1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

Yeah…I have to say, I kinda expected this.  The Sons are trying to get the lynch to do all their dirty work, and it won't matter if a few of their members are discovered by false claims, because by the time that happens, the Parshendi won't have hardly any voting power left. At that point, the unaligned Alethi will have a much better chance of reaching a successful win con if they just work with the Sons, and this game will be over quickly.

That assumes that the unaligned Alethi would be willing to work with people who manipulated them like that through outright lies (or rather, that the Sons think they would); I know that I, for one, wouldn't.

If Jon turns out to not be a Ghostblood, and Orlok is a Son, then I'm abandoning my earlier position about the unaligned Alethi working with the Sons.

Edited July 16, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Frozen Mint]

I don't think Jon is a Ghostblood considering that he's been somewhat active, and there have been no Ghostblood kills. If Orlok was roleblocked last cycle, then he knows that he'll probably die next cycle anyways. He has nothing to lose by lying.

The other possibility is that the Ghostbloods are watching and waiting and letting the other factions kill us in the meantime which just emphasizes the need for peace. I'm pretty sure Alv echoed how all the Parshendi are feeling right now. If we're going to achieve peace, I need to some effort on the Alethi's part to get rid of the SoH which I am happy to say I am seeing.

5 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

That assumes that the unaligned Alethi would be willing to work with people who manipulated them like that through outright lies (or rather, that the Sons think they would); I know that I, for one, wouldn't.

No, it assumes that the SoH believe that the unaligned Alethi would work with the SoH, even if the SoH decieved them, for the sake of winning the game. They could be hoping that a greater power imbalance will sway the Alethi for peace to adopt a "lynch all Parshendi" attitude.

So if Orlok is lying, he's SoH. Or maybe a Ghostblood. If he's not, I wouldn't say that I have a SoH read on him. Therefore, I am going to place my vote on Orlok for now, and I will consider removing it if Orlok himself comes up with a more suspicious Alethi lynch target.

Edited July 16, 2017 by Frozen Mint

[Elbereth]

Right. This post started a decent length and then got longer. Apologies, all. 

First, @Drake Marshall, any scan results to share? Or any other Parshendi? It's fairly obvious that you haven't scanned a Son/Ghostblood, otherwise that would have been announced far before now, but it'd be useful to know in any case. 

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I'm kind of tired right now, so I'm not gonna work too hard on this post right now.

Hmmm...that's certainly interesting. I'm glad that we managed to get rid of two Voidbringers. It'll make peace so much easier this game. I'm assuming that there's probably 1-2 more Voidbringers out there. I'm inclined to believe that there's only one, because otherwise, assuming there's at least 1 Ghostblood Parshendi as well (which is supposedly Jon), that'd leave less than half of the Parshendi unaligned. Plus, now that we know Jon's role (probably), we can take him out later at any time. In order to show that us Alethi are actually willing to fight for peace, I'm willing to lynch Yitzi right now, because he's probably a SoH. I don't think he's a Ghostblood, though who knows?

Agreed on the 3 Voidbringers, 1 Ghostblood distribution. 

I do seriously question why we would wait to take out Jondesu, though. If we can manage to remove all of the Ghostbloods, we can get rid of their kill, which is useful for all of us. Waiting indefinitely seems inadvisable. If we had a guaranteed other Ghostblood or Voidbringer (or even Son of Honour), perhaps, but in theory Jondesu is the person that everyone should want dead. (Other than the other Ghostbloods, obviously.) And it would come close to verifying Orlok as a second scanner. Having two (at least for now), we could then scan even faster and potentially even achieve that very peace that everyone's arguing for. How, exactly, does it make sense to lynch the person who can help to accurately achieve that win faster? 

13 hours ago, asterion137 said:

I just reread the rules. Pretty sure I'm dying this cycle then.

Might as well try to get rid of Jondesu if I'm gonna die anyway.

 

Why do you think you're dying this cycle? Were you roleblocked? 

7 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

EDIT: Another point: Elbereth mentioned last cycle the case that the Ghostbloods know who the Voidbringers are, because they claimed in their doc.  The hit on another Voidbringer (and one without protection) this cycle supports that theory.

If this theory is true, that would imply that the Voidbringers, at least, are (or, for 2 of them, were) under the impression that the Parshendi as a whole are supporting them, i.e. betraying the Alethi.

Personally, I find that a bit hard to believe, but I think it still bears mentioning.

So, that's not the case, as far as I can tell. Apart from the lynch there were two kills: on Asterion and Roadwalker/Cluny. The Sons seem very likely to have a kill at this point, and I think it fairly logical that they would've killed a Parshendi. Thus, they hit Cluny and the Ghostbloods must've hit Asterion (which makes sense, as they wouldn't want to be scanned). 

The kills themselves, then, don't lend credence to the idea. I do still think it's possible and even probable, since that is the best case for the Parshendi. But I don't see any indication of it here. 

7 hours ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

I am striving for a Neutral victory in this game, so I will also be voting for Orlok, because he isn't playing in a way that is favouring said neutral victory. If he isn't an actual Son of Honour, it seems incredibly likely that he is at least helping them in some way. I would much rather lynch anyone who isn't striving for an unaligned victory between the two public factions. I think we should wait longer to lynch Jondesu, like Alvron was talking about. We shouldn't be lynching only Parshendi players--even if we have reason to believe they are evil. As I said, I would much prefer a victory for both the Alethi and Parshendi. After all, this is supposed to be a Peace Treaty.

Again. Yes, he is? He's revealing one of the secret roles that needs to die in order to achieve that victory. I agree that some of his opinions lean towards the Sons, but his action of revealing Jondesu is in favour of that neutral victory. So I don't exactly see the issue. 

9 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I don't think Jon is a Ghostblood considering that he's been somewhat active, and there have been no Ghostblood kills. If Orlok was roleblocked last cycle, then he knows that he'll probably die next cycle anyways. He has nothing to lose by lying.

Unless you know something I don't, there has in fact been a Ghostblood kill.  Or at least an attempted one, on Asterion. And... let's see. Both Cluny and Elenion were in Decayform. Presumably both roleblocked someone (since they must have both switched last turn because death comes before switching, though @Seonid you didn't techincally actually say that in the order of actions). Asterion implied he was also roleblocked, in which case it seems more likely that Elenion roleblocked and killed him, and Cluny hit Orlok (which... might even make a certain amount of sense given Orlok and Cluny have been connected in LG33, though I'm not sure that's an argument that's valid enough to pay attention to), probably not with the kill because he had no reason to believe he'd be dead and the kill would be more useful later in the game when they actually knew more roles. 

Oh - and if you think that Orlok is likely to die this cycle due to being roleblocked, why vote on him at all? That's a complete waste of a lynch. 

Also, regarding allying with the Sons even if they lie to us: I think everyone agrees (and agreed last cycle as well, which makes it somewhat unlikely to me that the Sons would think it would work) that the Alethi would immediately go for an unaligned win and kill the Sons at that point. No one likes deception and betrayal unless they're the one causing it. 

Jondesu. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Will respond as and when I can, but have just learned that my sister has been hospitalised four times over the last four days, and an focusing on that right now..

[StrikerEZ]

Hmm...@Elbereth I never said I wanted to lynch Orlok. I said I wanted to lynch Yitzi, who is almost certainly a SoH, just based on his posts and attitude so far. So...I don't know why you accused me of wanting to lynch the person who could help us win. I agree that I don't see why everyone seems to be voting on him, it makes no sense. It's the same situation from last cycle. If Orlok is lying about his scan, then he'll just be lynched the next cycle. At least, I'll be pushing the lynch for him. But I don't think he's lying. It'd just be suicide, and with a really good role too. Of course, considering both of our claimed artifabrians were roleblocked, The might both die, which could be really inconvenient. I don't think any more artifabrians should publicly announce their results from their scans. Try and use the PMs to spread the information as much as possible, preferably with someone you trust (assuming there are more out there). 

And, I know that Jon probably needs to die as well, even on the off chance that he isn't a Ghostblood. I think it's highly likely that he really is a Ghostblood. The main reason I voted on Yitzi before was because I believed we should be fair to the Parshendi by lynching an Alethi who probably wants them all dead anyway. Honestly though, it doesn't matter which of Jon or Yitzi we lynch first. I wanna stick with my guns about lynching Yitzi, but I do realize lynching Jon would be a good idea. 

[DrakeMarshall]

27 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

First, @Drake Marshall, any scan results to share? Or any other Parshendi? It's fairly obvious that you haven't scanned a Son/Ghostblood, otherwise that would have been announced far before now, but it'd be useful to know in any case.

I found a role, not an alignment. And I suspect the Alethi would appreciate it if I didn't go announcing the role I found, or who I scanned.

 

Anyway. I would like to point out that Elenion flat-out said in the Parshendi doc, maybe an hour before last cycle ended, that he was indeed a Voidbringer. More importantly, he heavily implied that my projection of 3 Voidbringers was accurate.

Which means only 1 Voidbringer left, if Elenion was being truthful (which he might not have been).

Now, I'm all for killing off Voidbringers and Ghostbloods, but if we are to keep things at all balanced and avoid handing a swift victory to the Sons of Honor, we really ought to lynch a Son of Honor today.

To clarify, I definitely support picking off a Ghostblood with one of your kills. Shardblade him.

But if we are going to have any chance of peace, the Sons of Honor need to be weakened. So far, every single kill in the game has been hitting Parshendi, and the Sons of Honor haven't been touched yet. Savvy?

So. Yitzi is fairly obviously a Son of Honor. I'm more sure about Yitzi than I am about Orlok, anyway.

 

And if you doubt that I'm serious about a peace treaty, remember that my only other option for winning just got utterly slaughtered last cycle. Even if I had wanted to work with the Voidbringers, that option would quite certainly be closed to me at this point.

[asterion137]

58 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Were you roleblocked? 

yes

[Elbereth]

 

35 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Hmm...@Elbereth I never said I wanted to lynch Orlok. I said I wanted to lynch Yitzi, who is almost certainly a SoH, just based on his posts and attitude so far. So...I don't know why you accused me of wanting to lynch the person who could help us win. I agree that I don't see why everyone seems to be voting on him, it makes no sense. It's the same situation from last cycle. If Orlok is lying about his scan, then he'll just be lynched the next cycle. At least, I'll be pushing the lynch for him. But I don't think he's lying. It'd just be suicide, and with a really good role too. Of course, considering both of our claimed artifabrians were roleblocked, The might both die, which could be really inconvenient. I don't think any more artifabrians should publicly announce their results from their scans. Try and use the PMs to spread the information as much as possible, preferably with someone you trust (assuming there are more out there). 

And, I know that Jon probably needs to die as well, even on the off chance that he isn't a Ghostblood. I think it's highly likely that he really is a Ghostblood. The main reason I voted on Yitzi before was because I believed we should be fair to the Parshendi by lynching an Alethi who probably wants them all dead anyway. Honestly though, it doesn't matter which of Jon or Yitzi we lynch first. I wanna stick with my guns about lynching Yitzi, but I do realize lynching Jon would be a good idea. 

Apologies - I'd missed that. My comment was more directed towards people who want to lynch him, not you specifically. The train of thought just originated from your post. 

Drake, you are very likely right.  Thank you, then. 

4 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

yes

Good to know. You are likely dead, then. Apologies. 

Question: was anyone else roleblocked? I'd like to know if the third Voidbringer also switched into Decayform. 

[Yitzi2]

1 hour ago, Frozen Mint said:

No, it assumes that the SoH believe that the unaligned Alethi would work with the SoH, even if the SoH decieved them, for the sake of winning the game.

Exactly.  Except let's say "outright lies" rather than "deceit", as that's quite a bit stronger, and is the case we're discussing here.

And, in such a case, I, at least, would not be willing to work with the SoH even for the sake of winning the game.  (I take very poorly to being lied to by a supposed ally.)

That said, lynching Orlok is a horrible idea, since there's a good chance he's dying next cycle anyway.

Edited July 16, 2017 by Yitzi2

[BrightnessRadiant]

Vote Tally:

(7) Jon - Orlok, Asterion, Yitzi, Flash, El, Striker, BR

(2) Yitzi - Striker, Cloud, Drake

(4) Orlok - Joe, Crimsn, Jon, Mint

Okay I've had a pm with Orlok for a little while and I don't really think he'd lie about this scan? Isn't it the same thing that happened with Asterion? If he's lying he's dead? I'm sorry that it had to be another parshendi that is the lynch target although tbh that last lynch was a success. We got a voidbringer through a scanner so don't we want to try getting a ghostblood too? If we absolutely need to lynch an Alethi to ensure peace between the factions, then I would rather vote Yitzi than Orlok since a scanner is someone we need around. But, for now as far as I can see Orlok wouldn't lie about this scan so Jondesu.

Edited July 16, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
I am terrible at vote tallies....:P

[Yitzi2]

Question: How do you get a count of 3 on Orlok, and then list 4 names?

[DrakeMarshall]

<ultimatum>

Here's the thing.

It's very likely that there's only one Voidbringer left, so that faction has basically lost.

What's more, I predict that there's only one Parshendi Ghostblood, so after you shardblade Jondesu tonight, the Ghostbloods will find it basically impossible to win.

The only secret faction who nobody has actually laid a hand on is the Sons of Honor. If my projections are even marginally accurate, nobody should even be pretending that the other factions are still major threats at this stage.

And yet you still don't feel safe enough? The Voidbringers are decimated, and you are free to shardblade Jondesu at any time and make the Ghostbloods basically unable to win, and you still need to kill off all the Parshendi, just in case?

I'd be okay with lynching Jondesu, if you'd agree to shardblade one of your own, but that's obviously never going to happen, especially if the shardblader is a Son of Honor.

 

If the Alethi actually want peace, the only condition on which we are having it on is if we lynch a suspected Son of Honor today, and then shardblade Jondesu tonight to deal with the Ghostbloods.

Otherwise you really shouldn't bother denying that you are throwing it all-in with a Son of Honor victory. In that case all pretense of peace ought to be dispensed with, because that's less headache for both of us.

</ultimatum>

 

Just good to make things clear.

[BrightnessRadiant]

42 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Question: How do you get a count of 3 on Orlok, and then list 4 names?

shhhhhhh I will fix my terrible math XD (I honestly don't know how that happened haha)

[Frozen Mint]

5 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Oh - and if you think that Orlok is likely to die this cycle due to being roleblocked, why vote on him at all? That's a complete waste of a lynch. 

ETA: Forgot to remove my vote on Orlok.

Right. Good point. El.  Your skepticism of peace is fair, but I see you siding with the SoH more easily than working towards peace which worries me.

4 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

Exactly.  Except let's say "outright lies" rather than "deceit", as that's quite a bit stronger, and is the case we're discussing here.

And, in such a case, I, at least, would not be willing to work with the SoH even for the sake of winning the game.  (I take very poorly to being lied to by a supposed ally.)

Not sure how much I trust this statement, but it'll keep me from voting on Yitzi for now.

Orlok's dying next cycle, so we'll be able to see his alignment. If you ask me, we'll be in a better position to discuss lynching Jon then.

I might change my vote before the end of the cycle. Let's see how this plays out.

Edited July 17, 2017 by Frozen Mint

[Yitzi2]

1 minute ago, Frozen Mint said:

Not sure how much I trust this statement

You can trust it absolutely.  Of course, that still leaves open all sorts of possibilities about our actual alignments, but you can absolutely trust that if the case turns out to be "Yitzi=Alethi, Orlok=Son of Honor, Orlok is proven to be lying", I will go fully for the neutral victory.

[Sami]

Dont really have time to speculate properly so I'll just say  Jon

[Seonid]

Public Service Announcement:

It has come to my attention that, due to mistaken assumptions during the game creation stage, this game is systemically biased against one faction.

In order to provide a fun and enjoyable game experience for everyone, the following rules changes are to take effect as of this moment: All Parshendi now gain the benefit of the warform extra life regardless of the form they have taken. The same applies to Voidbringers and the stormform extra life. A Parshendi must still be in warform to protect another player.

In addition, it is now possible for a Parshendi to be a Shardbearer. A Parshendi Shardbearer possesses both plate and blade, and may use their blade to attack another player.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Um, how does a Parshendi become a Shardbearer? Do they have to kill an existing Shardbearer?

[Yitzi2]

19 minutes ago, Seonid said:

Public Service Announcement:

It has come to my attention that, due to mistaken assumptions during the game creation stage, this game is systemically biased against one faction.

In order to provide a fun and enjoyable game experience for everyone, the following rules changes are to take effect as of this moment: All Parshendi now gain the benefit of the warform extra life regardless of the form they have taken. The same applies to Voidbringers and the stormform extra life. A Parshendi must still be in warform to protect another player.

In addition, it is now possible for a Parshendi to be a Shardbearer. A Parshendi Shardbearer possesses both plate and blade, and may use their blade to attack another player.

Which mistaken assumptions would these be?