Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Elenion he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Oh right. Hi Elenion. Please be more active.

It was mostly a joke, although I'm completely serious. Not a fan of the Rand bandwagon (which in itself is more evidence of him being a villager).

My activity should increase as I go from being in 3 games to 2, and I tend to get more active as games go on anyway.

I'm keeping my vote on Straw because I'd rather see Straw lynched than Rand. Elim!Rand would not be likely to want to draw this much attention this early.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, cloudjumper said:

Straw(4):Stink, Araris, Rae, El

Rand(6):BR, Orlok, Straw, Crimsn-Wolf, Flash, Jon

El(1):Aman

Cloud(1): Seonid

Probably missed something, but here, take this vote tally.

Okay so my disorganized and jumbled thoughts on this game so far:

Pretty sure Stink wouldn't call this much attention to himself if he was an Elim. Rand seems like village to me. He could be a parole officer or village, and his logic does seem to make sense. Never played with Rand before so might change my opinion later. Would not lynch for now. Flash seems to be unsure where to place his vote, but still wants to vote(duh). He seems to be posting less than in LG34, even though a lot of it was posting that he was going to be inactive, so perhaps he is posting elsewhere, an Elim doc perhaps? Would lynch, but only after more proof comes. Doubt Aman is an Elim if Rand is. Pushing hard for Rand's innocence if Rand is an Elim would draw attention, never good for Elims. 

I want to believe you're town because of this. Keep it up and I'll solidify that lean into a read some day.

6 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

I'll vote on Straw because voting on someone who isn't here seems like a classic elim move to get a free village kill.

I'm having some doubts about Straw (mostly due to how quickly the Rand bandwagon took the lead), but I'd also like to see more than two options. Do you have thoughts on anyone else?

5 minutes ago, little wilson said:

My thoughts on the Rand situation? I've mostly just been skimming it. I can see both you and Orlok's take on him, though I don't think Orlok's hypothesis is as far-fetched as you say, Aman. Mostly because I remember both Sart and Rae doing exactly that to me in LG26. Rae already mentioned that, and you wrote it off as impractical, but I don't really. Do I think that's necessarily what's going on here? I don't know. To be completely honest, I don't really....care? Like, there's a reason I've been hitting so hard on the "let the neutrals do their thing" thing. You can take that as an alignment claim, by the way.

Too much risk for something that wouldn't even guarantee every other neutral taking the eliminator's side on top of the fact it'd be completely spoiled if Rand was revealed an eliminator. That being said, glad to know I don't have to worry about you being evil.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Amanuensis, Randuir went after the Convict, a role useful to Cosette, Marius, and Eponine, and made arguments that applied to every single neutral player justifying our being lynched. It wouldn't be too unreasonable to think it might irk the neutral players.

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@Amanuensis, Randuir went after the Convict, a role useful to Cosette, Marius, and Eponine, and made arguments that applied to every single neutral player justifying our being lynched. It wouldn't be too unreasonable to think it might irk the neutral players.

Which proves he's town.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[asterion137 he/him]

8 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@Amanuensis, Randuir went after the Convict, a role useful to Cosette, Marius, and Eponine, and made arguments that applied to every single neutral player justifying our being lynched. It wouldn't be too unreasonable to think it might irk the neutral players.

That only hurts the village if Rand turns out to be village. elim!Rand has no incentive to alienate the neutrals since it basically assures his team's loss.

Edited June 26, 2017 by asterion137
ninja'd by aman

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Which proves he's town.

In what way does that prove he's town? It's completely against his interests as a villager to do that, and is advantageous from the perspecrive of an eliminator?

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Which proves he's town.

I..don't see how that proves he is town? It seems unlikely that you want want to irk the neutrals as a village?

//edit// ninja'd by orlok lol

Edited June 26, 2017 by Crimsn-Wolf

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Just now, asterion137 said:

That only hurts the village if Rand turns out to be village. elim!Rand has no incentive to alienate the neutrals since it basically assures his team's loss.

Elim!Rand has every incentive to make the neutrals think that village!Rand and the rest of the village are opposed to neutral players.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I'm actually with Aman on this one in believing that Elim!Randuir wouldn't vote on an neutral. It would be too easy to backfire later.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@OrlokTsubodai Except that's not exactly what's coming out of this discussion.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Araris Valerian

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

In what way does that prove he's town? It's completely against his interests as a villager to do that, and is advantageous from the perspecrive of an eliminator?

8 minutes ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

I..don't see how that proves he is town? It seems unlikely that you want want to piss irk the neutrals as a village?

Eliminators care more about their image then they do making convoluted plays on the first day of the game. Villagers care less about their image and more about ensuring the elims have as few assets as possible. Pretty cut and dry.

---

Brightness Radiant, Straw, Crimsn-Wolf, The Flash and Jondesu.

One of these five is very likely an eliminator. I'm now determined to figure out which.

EDIT: Add Yitzi to that list. Somehow his vote didn't get onto Cloud's vote tally.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Eliminators care more about their image then they do making convoluted plays on the first day of the game. Villagers care less about their image and more about ensuring the elims have as few assets as possible. Pretty cut and dry

Hm...I didn't look at it that way. That is a valid point. While I still hold suspicion on him, I will redact my vote on Randuir for this cycle. Who are you suspicious of right now, then, Aman?

[Amanuensis he/him]

10 minutes ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

Hm...I didn't look at it that way. That is a valid point. While I still hold suspicion on him, I will redact my vote on Randuir for this cycle. Who are you suspicious of right now, then, Aman?

Pretty much everyone that's voted for Rand. I'll narrow down that list after I look at when exactly people voted and read through all of their posts. In the pit of my gut, Yitzi and Jon feel evil, but that's from memory of my reactions to their posts. May change upon reread.

@The Flash if you could articulate all the reasons why you're suspicious of Rand, that would be very helpful for gamesolving.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Pretty much everyone that's voted for Rand. I'll narrow down that list after I look at when exactly people voted and read through all of their posts. In the pit of my gut, Yitzi and Jon feel evil, but that's from memory of my reactions to their posts. May change upon reread.

Mm, that makes sense. I am going to go through all the posts from Day 1 now, and compile my suspicions, rip. I'll post again after I finish with any thoughts I have, to try and help in case I see something that others may not have.

[Yitzi2]

18 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Elim!Rand has every incentive to make the neutrals think that village!Rand and the rest of the village are opposed to neutral players.

But when it most matters would be at the end, when it would be most likely to be known that he was village.

After consideration, I think Amanuensis is right about this not fitting elim!Rand.  Either he's village, or he's neutral.  (Or he's an elim trying to be sneaky, but that way lies IKYK and you can at most weaken the evidence against him being an elim, not turn it into evidence in favor).

[Amanuensis he/him]

41 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

But when it most matters would be at the end, when it would be most likely to be known that he was village.

After consideration, I think Amanuensis is right about this not fitting elim!Rand.  Either he's village, or he's neutral.  (Or he's an elim trying to be sneaky, but that way lies IKYK and you can at most weaken the evidence against him being an elim, not turn it into evidence in favor).

I wouldn't call it sneaky. Rand's stance on Neutrals was pretty blatant. Your lack of a stance is noted, though.

EDIT: Just got off work and eating quick, but felt like saying of the players who voted on Rand, Crimsn is probably Town.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, first of all, sorry for not posting very much, I've been juggling real life and two separate games right now. I keep getting either distracted, or something else comes up. I'm hoping to be on more in the next few cycles, but don't expect much from me at the start of the next day cycle (this coming night cycle is fine).

What I'm doing is going back through each page and giving my thoughts on it. I'll probably be ninja'd A LOT while I type this out, so I don think think I'll analyze page 14 until after I've posted this.

Page 1: Nothing seemed too suspicious yet, though, in hindsight, the fact that Joe is neutral (convict, I believe?) makes more sense, seeing how in his first post he asked for the thief to cause chaos, which he'd claimed to want in later PMs (or was his first post at the same time? All I remember is that he asked for Chaos in those PMs). Though I do wonder why he so blatantly claimed he was acting on the behalf of the village to the other neutrals in-thread, when he might've been siding with elims (this is from a later page, where his PMs were talked about). That seems fishy to me, but not too much. 

Page 2: Okay, again, nothing seemed too suspicious to me on this page. Something about rand feels off, but I'll wait. And see. There were some big posts, especially Brightness's, and those usually tend to win me over. But I'm not gonna put off suspicion of those players yet.

Page 3: This page doesn't seem like it was very productive. Just kind of led to a fight between STINK and Straw who was more guilty of being an elim because of their PMs. Not much else to say, except I have a gut read on Straw (which hasn't gone away still), though I'm not planning on acting on it (yet). I definitely feel there are better players we could lynch.

Page 4: Nothing seems off about any players, to me, on this page. Not much to say here.

Page 5: Okay, lots happened here. My biggest suspicions from this page are mainly gut. Rand seems more and more suspicious, though I can't place why. Straw also seems suspicious, but that also might be because this was during the whole fiasco between him and STINK.

I'm already getting tired of this. This whole page thing was kind of useful for the first few, but I think I'll follow Brightness's idea nd do a player analysis in a little bit. I have no idea how many times I've been ninja'd while doing this (for a little over thirty minutes [EDIT: wow, actually almost an hour]), but we'll see.

EDIT: Turns out I wasn't ninja'd! Yay!

Edited June 26, 2017 by StrikerEZ

[Amanuensis he/him]

Jon: First few posts NAI. His tinfoil of Wilson feels like he knows Crimsn and Wilson are town (or, at least, not elims) and he's trying to discourage the former trusting the latter. He's got a bit of an authoritative tone going that I'm not sure is alignment indicative, but it's triggering me a little (for example, "Everyone else keep your roles to yourselves"). I would say him giving Joe time to respond is sensible, but that could just be hedging because he'd rather lynch a villager. The timing of his vote on Rand suggests he's town, even if I think it's a really bad vote. Him trying to get Flash to talk more about his reads is good, but it's probably NAI since an elim could say that just as easily. Conclusion: Leaning evil but would not lynch him today, as it's unfair to start a lynch on someone when they aren't around, and I'd like to do some real-time interaction with him later.

EDIT: Oh he's reading the thread. Hi @Jondesu 

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Haelbarde he/him]

2 hours ago, cloudjumper said:

Straw(4):Stink, Araris, Rae, El

Just pointing out that with Elbereth also playing, "El" is a little ambiguous.

---

So I've attempted to compile my own vote tally. If I've missed anything, do let me know.

Vote Tally (with history):
Straw(4): Stink{1}, Stink{3}, Araris{1}, Rae{1}, Elenion{1}, Flash{1}, Asterion{1}
Drake(0): Stink{2}
Stink(0): Straw{1}, Straw{3}, Flash{2}
Joe(1): Randuir{1}, Straw{2}, Drake{1}
Randuir(6): Brightness{1}, Joe{1}, Orlok{1}, Straw{4}, Yitzi2{1}, Crimsn{1}, Flash{3}, Jondesu{1}
Elenion(0): Aman{1}
Jondesu(0): Rae{2}
Cloudjumper(1): Seonid{1}
Shqueeves(1): PK{1}

Vote Tally:
Randuir(6): Brightness, Orlok, Straw, Crimsn, Flash, Jondesu
Straw(4): Stink, Araris, Elenion, Asterion
Joe(1): Randuir
Cloudjumper(1): Seonid
Shqueeves(1): PK

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Flash: Hm. Previously I was thinking Straw is town, so if that's true then Flash voting for both him and Rand looks pretty bad to me. Thing is he's new, so it might just be a result of so many people expressing suspicion of them, so probably NAI. Due to the liftoff of the Rand lynch, I allocated some tinfoil towards Straw being an elim and someone trying to save him by voting Rand, but if that's the case Flash is probably cleared by his initial vote of Straw. Don't agree with PMs inherently being suspicious like he seems to imply in that post, though I kind of get the sense of him being paranoid rather than being an elim trying to make us paranoid. Not a huge fan of him keeping his notes on the down low, but his reasoning feels innocent. Conclusion: Leaning town, especially if Straw is evil. EDIT: That being said, @The Flash, still would like to know the reasons your suspicious of Rand besides what happened with Joe.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Okay, so we've got 5 hours left, but since rollover is in the middle of the night for a lot of us, I don't think the thread will be very active that late(I'll probably be around honestly, but no promises ). Anyways, my point is that if we're gonna move the lynch somewhere, you should probably get your thoughts in the thread as soon as possible so others have a chance to see them and consider them.

These votes on randuir are really surprising to me. Like, I get the point that alienating Neutrals from the village is not a good thing to do, but it seems like a rookie mistake to make as an elim, and I don't consider randuir a rookie(his first game he was an elim and pretty much everyone trusted him >>).

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@Amanuensis after reading through the conversations that happened while I was gone I can really see where you're coming from about Randuir. If he was an elim than alienating the neutrals and then getting lynched and having his alignment show up elim would really be the worst thing the elims could do and I know Randuir is smarter than that. I may not agree with his reactions to the neutrals, but I understand now why you think he's a villager.

Now I need to go back and look through my other suspicions...orlok was seeming village to me until he insisted on Rand's being evil even after this great explanation.

I'll post again soon with a new vote and @StrikerEZ I'll continue the RP too! Thanks for adding to it! 

[little wilson she/her]

8 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

it seems like a rookie mistake to make as an elim, and I don't consider randuir a rookie(his first game he was an elim and pretty much everyone trusted him >>).

Major tinfoil time: Rand and Aman are elims together and because they're both seen as very good evil players, they're doing things that people would never expect them to do as eliminators (Rand trying to alienate the neutrals from the village, because he'd never do that as an eliminator so clearly he's village, and Aman defending Rand so hardcore since he would never jump so hard and so early to the defense of a teammate).

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@little wilson gah! Don't confuse me more lol

[little wilson she/her]

Hey, I did say it was a major tinfoil.  

Though honestly, if they were teammates, I could see them doing this. 'm not saying I'm suspicious of either of them (I'm neutral, so I have no reason to be, though I'd be rather paranoid, were I village), but it's a possibility. And really, I find Aman's hard defense of Rand specifically to be very strange.