Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

@Amanuensis Why would you vote on me if you think I'm good?

Mostly I think you're town because of tone. But Yitzi defended you in a weird way D1, never voted for you, voted with you twice (Rand and Aster), and you've been a lot more interested in surviving this game than usual, which are decent signs of being evil. Seeing your alignment for sure can help us form reads on people who voted for you D1, which makes you a lot more appealing than a STINK lynch since it has no chance of helping us in achieve our win con or gain information.

I would be happy to lynch a few other players today, but it's so late in the turn now, I'm not sure if it would succeed or clarify our picture of the game state.

---

Just look at the vote tally

(9) Straw: _Stick_, BrightnessRadiant, Drake Marshall, asterion137, StrikerEZ, The Flash, Dalinar Kholin, Paranoid King, Amanuensis, 

(8) STINK: A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, Ecthelion III, Arraenae, little wilson, Arinian, Straw, STINK, 

(8) None: Cloudjumper, Shqueeves, Elenion, Araris Valerian, randuir, Seonid, OrlokTsubodai, Elbereth, 

It would take a lot of work to diffuse both of these wagons and create a third, and last thing I want is to try to use my status as a player or a town confirmed role to manipulate it.

That being said, Strawagon looks really impure to me. Specifically I think one of Drake, Striker or PK are very likely evil (if Straw is good). If you die today, I can start looking at them really hard with confidence.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Stick has been posting a lot of small posts, poking questions and commenting on stuff.

 

It's this final post that gives me a village lean. I don't like all the people who are suggesting we'll need to lynch stink at some point, makes me suspicious. He also mentioned that he's been "lazy," which maybe explains all of the small posts (that gave me a more a going under the radar vibe.

Hopefully I'll be more useful tomorrow morning, after I've gotten some sleep  

Also, she* 

1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Crimson: My main thought on crimson comes from day 2 when he joined the neutral bandwagon on Randuir. If Randuir is evil this would give him a heavy village lean in my mind. My initial impression is that he was a neutral, do we know all neutrals now? He's been pretty low profile, but I suspect that's an experience thing, I've never played with him before so I'm unfamiliar with his playstyle. Very little read on him.

No, we don't know who the thief's child, or the convict's ward are, I think.

also, she*  

edit: just wanted to point out that the lynch rn is v easy to be manipulated by a soother/rioter, if the elims have one. But I guess they won't gain anything by delaying straws lynch if he really is evil 

Edited July 3, 2017 by _Stick_
Storming spelling errors

[Dalinar Kholin]

20 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Hopefully I'll be more useful tomorrow morning, after I've gotten some sleep  

Also, she* 

No, we don't know who the thief's child, or the convict's ward are, I think.

also, she*  

edit: just wanted to pint out that the lynch rn is v easy to be manipulated by a soother/rioter, if the elims have one. But I guess they won't gain anything by delaying straws lynch if he really is evil 

Sorry bout that!

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Right. I very much don't like the wagon on Stink, and don't think the wagon on Straw will be terribly useful. 

Joe. Joe is Valjean, and at some point there will be an attempted lynch on him for Wilson, so we may as well do it now when the current lynches aren't brilliant.

@A Joe in the Bush, @little wilson, @Amanuensis, @Straw, @STINK

[Elenion]

@AmanuensisLast page you said that if Straw is village you would get an elim read on me. Why so, seeing as I could have voted on him back when I retracted my vote from Stink and then have been camouflaged in the bandwagon?

Straw. STINK hasn't dumped my role in the thread and is sorry for extorting, so I'm ready to put my vote where it has a chance at nabbing an elim.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@The Flash, @cloudjumper, @Shqueeves, @asterion137, @Paranoid King, @StrikerEZ, @Elenion, @BrightnessRadiant, @Arinian, @Araris Valerian, @randuir. @Ecthelion III, @Seonid, @Drake Marshall, @Crimsn-Wolf, @_Stick_, @Dalinar Kholin, @Arraenae, @Elbereth

 

I think that's everyone I haven't previously summoned. A Joe lynch shouldn't be controversial, avoids causing Stink upset (I know why, and it's understandable) which is apparent from his post, and is at the cost of what appears to be a pretty unproductive lynch on Straw.

 

[Dalinar Kholin]

Why do you think the straw lynch is unproductive?

[Amanuensis]

3 minutes ago, Elenion said:

@AmanuensisLast page you said that if Straw is village you would get an elim read on me. Why so, seeing as I could have voted on him back when I retracted my vote from Stink and then have been camouflaged in the bandwagon?

Straw. STINK hasn't dumped my role in the thread and is sorry for extorting, so I'm ready to put my vote where it has a chance at nabbing an elim.

Your vote on Straw D1. I know Rae's clear because Ringleader, and STINK is neutral, so if the eliminators wanted an easy mislynch D1, they would have gone for Straw. That being said, Striker is also on the list for saying in thread "Straw is very suspicious" without voting, and I'm sure he's not the only one.

2 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@The Flash, @cloudjumper, @Shqueeves, @asterion137, @Paranoid King, @StrikerEZ, @Elenion, @BrightnessRadiant, @Arinian, @Araris Valerian, @randuir. @Ecthelion III, @Seonid, @Drake Marshall, @Crimsn-Wolf, @_Stick_, @Dalinar Kholin, @Arraenae, @Elbereth

 

I think that's everyone I haven't previously summoned. A Joe lynch shouldn't be controversial, avoids causing Stink upset (I know why, and it's understandable) which is apparent from his post, and is at the cost of what appears to be a pretty unproductive lynch on Straw.

I have no qualms with lynching Joe, it just seems a bit premature right now, and I do feel that knowing Straw's alignment for sure helps solving the game. In other words, I'd rather stay on this lynch and see where it takes us.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Orlok Tsubodai]

We've had essentially zero discussion about why we're lynching Straw, which makes it difficult to draw much information from this cycle. What distinguishes your vote from The Flash's vote, for instance? (Apologies if either of you actually have justified your vote).

[Amanuensis]

Just now, OrlokTsubodai said:

We've had essentially zero discussion about why we're lynching Straw, which makes it difficult to draw much information from this cycle. What distinguishes your vote from The Flash's vote, for instance? (Apologies if either of you actually have justified your vote).

I pretty much explained why I think Straw needs to die last night in my final post, where I said I was killing him and why. I think he's good, but there's enough of a chance that he isn't to warrant a lynch, and two players that voted for him D1 are on my list of people I have barely any reads on. Knowing Straw's alignment for sure helps me a lot, personally. 

[Paranoid King]

3 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

I think that's everyone I haven't previously summoned. A Joe lynch shouldn't be controversial, avoids causing Stink upset (I know why, and it's understandable) which is apparent from his post, and is at the cost of what appears to be a pretty unproductive lynch on Straw.

Not really. According to your proposition, we'd by lynching a neutral to find out another neutral's role. That's an interesting piece of info, but it's not essential. I feel like lynching Straw is a lot more helpful for finding elims.

Sure, we haven't had a lot of info from straw this cycle, but Straw has had so many interactions in previous cycles that would be helpful to clear up. For example, both Straw and Asterion likely aren't elims, (because they both got involved in averting the yitzi lynch) so if straw is an elim, Asterion probably isn't. I feel like that's more helpful than knowing if Wilson's lying or not. Even if she is, we'd have to lynch her in a future cycle, which is 2 cycles wasted on killing neutrals.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Well, I think I've put those somewhere, but to be fair, I'll restate some points. A): with his vote on Asterion he was very cursory, provided very little reasoning, even when prodded, he just responded by regurgitating what others had posted. At the very least I'd give a village lean to asterion if he's evil. He's put out a lot of pm's early game, which could be an easy way of netting in information. He's also been very under the radar for the past couple of turns, ever since people starting talking about suspicions of him. He hasn't put out a strong defense against any of the substantial claims, ie. links to yitzi which I admitedly haven't looked deeply into.

Partially ninja'd by PK

Edited July 4, 2017 by Dalinar Kholin

[Orlok Tsubodai]

We're not lynching a neutral to find out another neutral's role. We're lynching a neutral so we don't have to organise a mislynch towards the end of the game, when it's important the village lynch the right people.

[Elenion]

1 minute ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Well, I think I've put those somewhere, but to be fair, I'll restate some points. A): with his vote on Asterion he was very cursory, provided very little reasoning, even when prodded, he just responded by regurgitating what others had posted. At the very least I'd give a village lean to asterion if he's evil. He's put out a lot of pm's early game, which could be an easy way of netting in information. He's also been very under the radar for the past couple of turns, ever since people starting talking about suspicions of him. He hasn't put out a strong defense against any of the substantial claims, ie. links to yitzi which I admitedly haven't looked deeply into.

PMs don't necessarily equal information. Some players make a lot of PMs but get little info, and some use few PMs but get a lot of info.

[Arrae]

21 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I pretty much explained why I think Straw needs to die last night in my final post, where I said I was killing him and why. I think he's good, but there's enough of a chance that he isn't to warrant a lynch, and two players that voted for him D1 are on my list of people I have barely any reads on. Knowing Straw's alignment for sure helps me a lot, personally. 

Woah woah woah, you do remember who the actual Ringleader is, right?  I remember being the one to put in the order, not you.

29 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@The Flash, @cloudjumper, @Shqueeves, @asterion137, @Paranoid King, @StrikerEZ, @Elenion, @BrightnessRadiant, @Arinian, @Araris Valerian, @randuir. @Ecthelion III, @Seonid, @Drake Marshall, @Crimsn-Wolf, @_Stick_, @Dalinar Kholin, @Arraenae, @Elbereth

 

I think that's everyone I haven't previously summoned. A Joe lynch shouldn't be controversial, avoids causing Stink upset (I know why, and it's understandable) which is apparent from his post, and is at the cost of what appears to be a pretty unproductive lynch on Straw.

 

Alright. I suppose a Stink lynch wouldn't be very productive now. @STINK, I'm sorry if my actions upset you.

I'm not sure about a Joe lynch. Are the lynches really set in stone now?

[Amanuensis]

49 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Woah woah woah, you do remember who the actual Ringleader is, right?  I remember being the one to put in the order, not you.

Alright. I suppose a Stink lynch wouldn't be very productive now. @STINK, I'm sorry if my actions upset you.

I'm not sure about a Joe lynch. Are the lynches really set in stone now?

Haha sorry. I kind of consider us one being at this point

They're not really set in stone... I just don't want a repeat of D1. Only other player I'd be cool with lynching right now is Aster, to be honest, but I feel like it's inevitable that both he and Straw need to die, so it doesn't matter which one we take out first.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Steeldancer]

38 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

We've had essentially zero discussion about why we're lynching Straw, which makes it difficult to draw much information from this cycle. What distinguishes your vote from The Flash's vote, for instance? (Apologies if either of you actually have justified your vote).

I have mentioned my suspicions and my reasoning at least once. I am suspicious of Straws PMs, his sudden voting in day 1 (he appeared to be very randomly hopping on a lynch), the defense of Straw by Yitzi, and many of Straws comments have given me an elim vibe.

[Amanuensis]

I might have mentioned this before, but Straw's voting for, well, basically everyone but a known eliminator for self-preservation implies that he really wants to live this game, and as far as I can tell, it's not because he wants to solve it, since he's not really trying to find eliminators (for example, when asked who his suspicions are, he only says STINK... who is neutral). It'd be silly for me to expect like, game winning reads from him, but it doesn't look good when combined with other evidence.

[Paranoid King]

41 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

We're not lynching a neutral to find out another neutral's role. We're lynching a neutral so we don't have to organise a mislynch towards the end of the game, when it's important the village lynch the right people.

Yeah, but say we lynch the neutral this cycle. Game end comes, and we have 2 elims left (Exact number doesn't matter.)

If we lynched an elim this cycle, game end would come and we'd only have 1 elim left.

Sure, the neutral is still around to confuse things, but we have fewer elims left. How is that ever a bad thing?

And we want village-oriented neutrals to win anyways, right?

1 hour ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Joe is Valjean, and at some point there will be an attempted lynch on him for Wilson.

You know Joe is Valjean. So by lynching him, you'd be making him lose. I'm not sure why you would want such an anti-neutral strategy. You're a neutral yourself, right? What's your motivation here? My bad. Mixed up Javert and Valjean. Valjean wouldn't lose (yet,) but my point about using a lynch on a neutral when we could lynch an elim instead stands.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Paranoid King
Confused Valjean with Javert

[Amanuensis]

(10) Straw: _Stick_, BrightnessRadiant, Drake Marshall, asterion137, StrikerEZ, The Flash, Dalinar Kholin, Paranoid King, Amanuensis, Elenion, 

(7) STINK: A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, Ecthelion III, little wilson, Arinian, Straw, STINK, 

(1) A Joe in the Bush: OrlokTsubodai, 

(7) None: Cloudjumper, Shqueeves, Araris Valerian, randuir, Seonid,  Elbereth, Arraenae, 

5 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

You know Joe is Valjean. So by lynching him, you'd be making him lose. I'm not sure why you would want such an anti-neutral strategy. You're a neutral yourself, right? What's your motivation here?

Joe wins if his Ward lives. It's possible for both the Parole Officer and Convict's Ward to win through cooperation.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Paranoid King]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Joe wins if his Ward lives. It's possible for both the Parole Officer and Convict's Ward to win through cooperation.

Dangit. I edited my post just before you posted. Javert and Valjean are different.

[A Joe in the Bush]

1 hour ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Right. I very much don't like the wagon on Stink, and don't think the wagon on Straw will be terribly useful. 

Joe. Joe is Valjean, and at some point there will be an attempted lynch on him for Wilson, so we may as well do it now when the current lynches aren't brilliant.

@A Joe in the Bush, @little wilson, @Amanuensis, @Straw, @STINK

1 hour ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@The Flash, @cloudjumper, @Shqueeves, @asterion137, @Paranoid King, @StrikerEZ, @Elenion, @BrightnessRadiant, @Arinian, @Araris Valerian, @randuir. @Ecthelion III, @Seonid, @Drake Marshall, @Crimsn-Wolf, @_Stick_, @Dalinar Kholin, @Arraenae, @Elbereth

 

I think that's everyone I haven't previously summoned. A Joe lynch shouldn't be controversial, avoids causing Stink upset (I know why, and it's understandable) which is apparent from his post, and is at the cost of what appears to be a pretty unproductive lynch on Straw.

 

Haha, I'd rather not be lynched today? I mean, it's only day 3. I'd like to at least wait until i've used my one shot protection of my ward or Orlok.

 I'd rather lynch Straw or Randuir, since they're both Elims. Also, STINK, thank you for posting that. I'll be voting for Randuir once again, as I still think he's an Elim. (Though I'll admit i'm probably tunneling at this point.)

 

 

[Arrae]

47 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Haha sorry. I kind of consider is one being at this point

Right. Just remember, Hael's not going to take any kill orders you send in, and I am more than a glorified set of hands to type in who you want to kill. If you want to murder people, become a vigilante yourself. 

Edited July 4, 2017 by Arraenae
Clumsy fingers+mobile=typos

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Arraenae said:

Right. Just remember, Hael's not going to take any kill orders you send in, and I am more than a glorified set of hands to type in who you want to kill. If you want to murder people, become a vigilante yourself?

Of course. Sorry if I offended you, m'lady.

[Arrae]

And now I am on finally on page 12 of the total L35 thread. BR has defended a ton of players. As of page 12, Arinian, Cloud, Dalinar, Ecth, The Flash, Len, Lopen, PK, and I hadn't made or been on the receiving end of any significant player intetactions, such as votes or defenses.