Long Game 33: Life

[Jondesu he/him]

28 minutes ago, STINK said:

You know those annoying guts? The thing that generally means you can't quite explain why and it always looks really suspicious but I don't even care 'bout that?

Jondesu.

Get gutted, Jon. 

Might need to take a probiotic. I don't think your gut is working properly.

[STINK he/him]

I dunno. Not getting the whole Edema thing after a fair bit of time just looks like you're trying to easily get the Edema's out of the Uni to me. Even I get that the Edema's are the charity case's

[DeTess she/her]

1 hour ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

 

@Paranoid King, @randuir, @little wilson, @Ornstein, given you're all around, what are your thoughts on my proposal last turn that we actually use the vote effectively, and on my thoughts about @queensteph

The risk with your plan is that the masters don't regard the amount of votes when spreading their DP around. So one guy with 40 votes, and one guy with 1 will on average each get 20 DP from the masters. If the votes get spread out a bit more, this sin't as big of a risk, but then you need to really stack on the votes to get someone expulsed. Having only 1-2 people with votes on them also opens up possibilities for elim manipulation, which isn't necessarily easy to tell. For example, STINKs gut-vote could be an elim-plot to get Jondesu lashed or expelled if we follow your advice to not spread the votes too much. it could also just be a gut-vote, as I can't really tell with stink.

Regarding Queensteph, I'll get around to that once I've had time to properly go through her posts.

[STINK he/him]

1 minute ago, randuir said:

For example, STINKs gut-vote could be an elim-plot to get Jondesu lashed or expelled if we follow your advice to not spread the votes too much. it could also just be a gut-vote, as I can't really tell with stink.

What's with this inconsistency about my name? Am I STINK or stink? To delve further into the issue, I must study Linguistics more. Only then, will an answer be approachable.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 hours ago, STINK said:

AND OBLIGATORY STAY AWAY FROM MY LINGUISTICS I'VE NEARLY DISCOVERED THE COMMA

Have you nearly discovered... Caesura?

[STINK he/him]

Don't know what that means yet sorry, Linguistics is a weird course.

[Arinian]

35 minutes ago, STINK said:

Don't know what that means yet sorry, Linguistics is a weird course.

I hope you will be not very disappointed if I will say that I have 13 EP in Linguistics 

[STINK he/him]

Just now, Arinian said:

I hope you will be not very disappointed if I will say that I have 13 EP in Linguistics 

Could someone do me a favour and get a Black Market Contract up about a certain rinian who thinks he can put EP in Linguistics while using the smile emoji like who even does that? Yeah he's gonna need to be killed

[Jondesu he/him]

2 hours ago, STINK said:

I dunno. Not getting the whole Edema thing after a fair bit of time just looks like you're trying to easily get the Edema's out of the Uni to me. Even I get that the Edema's are the charity case's

You're underestimating my ability to be oblivious to things.  I also had missed that Hael was Edema, since I didn't look back at the player list before voting.

[STINK he/him]

6 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

You're underestimating my ability to be oblivious to things. 

That's exactly what you'd want me to think, you dirty Epidermisdanseur!

[Elbereth she/her]

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

And Mage got targeted by the skin dancers. Is write-up's based on Mage's RP rather than giving any actual hints? Like had Mage been spending his EPs to impress the Master Archivist? Don't really know if that matters though. Did the skin dancers want to get elevated in that field with the least people in their way as possible? Mage's RP did indicate he'd be going for the Archives.

Writeups will not be giving hints to fields people went into, or anything else. It's purely based on his RP. (I actually can't remember whar he went into if anything, and certainly didn't bother to look it up beforehand.) 

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

Noremac held the forceps carefully. Today, the Physicks classes were dissecting organs. He prodded the kidney on the tray in front of him. It stank of preservatives. Noremac gagged and held his nose as he sliced in with a knife. Around him, other students prodded various organs, intestines, hearts, stomachs. The stench was unbearable, and his eyes watered. Why had he signed up for Physicks? Surely, it was the worst decision of his life. He glanced at the window, which was shuttered closed. If only he could see the sky... what were the clouds like? He needed some fresh air... yes.

Noremac raised his hand. "Professor? I am not feeling very well. May I step out?" The professor weaved among the students to Noremac. He squinted at the kidney, only barely sliced.

"Weak of stomach, eh? Fine, you may have a break, but be back in five minutes!" Noremac nodded vigorously and dashed towards the door. The door shut noisily behind him, the sound echoing down the corridor. Noremac took a deep breath. Good air. He sighed and relaxed, strolling towards the exit. He smiled as the afternoon sun touched his cheeks. Only a few cirrus graced the sky today, and a pleasant breeze blew through the trees. Noremac walked to one and sat against its trunk. The rushing of the leaves filled his ears, and he drifted asleep.

---

@OrlokTsubodai, I read your suspicions of Steph. I thought about it, and it sounds reasonable. Steph and DA.

[Sparkrunner he/him]

Cluny hummed happily, crawling around in the sewer drain, where he belonged. He gnawed on some old shoes. His nose twitched, and he rushed forward eagerly to eat a worm. He thrashed happily in the glorious filth.

~ Hours later...

It had happened again. The rat had taken over. It must be all the stress from studying, causing the cracks in his mind to widen. That elevation had taken a lot out of him, and he shook his head. Sighing, he opened the next book in his stack, which happened to be on the most interesting topic of the incredible specifics of ancient Yllish agriculture. Ho hum.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I think HH and PK. Both voted for Steph, who as far as I can tell is not that suspicious. I think OrlokTsubodai has some good points, and I am not as suspicious of him as I am of PK. He has been "throwing votes," and being interestingly interested in certain things. I am not totally certain of my suspicions, but I think he is a good guess. He and Randuir have been driving conversation, is that because they are perfect villagers? Or is it because they want to appear that way?

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Cluny the Scourge, would you care to explain why you don't find @queensteph suspicious? I haven't yet had my thoughts actually addressed.

[Sparkrunner he/him]

Well, I for one am not great to address your posts, however I think that @queensteph is not a skindancer, not through posts but behavior. The whole PK episode is suspicious, however I can believe that she was really just "hopping on the bandwagon," like I almost did, even though I did not really get the math. She has been inactive recently, and before was an active member of the discussion. That does not scream "skindancer" to me. I am really just going with my gut, so @OrlokTsubodai is probably more likely to be correct than I am, unless anyone can spy on @queensteph and maybe @Paranoid King, one of you people with those powers.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Cluny the Scourge, to me it's her jumping on the bandwagon and straight back off that makes me suspicious of her. 

Not really sure the value in calling for actions when we're discussing votes this cycle?

If I'm more likely to be correct, in your own words, why are you still voting on HH? He is suspicious (or at least has had a couple of flags in T1M1 (which I hope to post soon - working on T1M2 analysis >>), but you're inconsistent, such is always a red flag to me.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

8 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

<SNIP>

As such, Queensteph, Queensteph: 

In C1, you've made four posts by the point I had to cease analysis for the night.

I have the following post summaries in my spreadsheet:

8. RP, groups players by social class

51. Asks PK to explain the mass voting. Sounds sensible, but confusing. Doesn't want to follow a plan she doesn't understand. Asks Stink whether it's not a good idea to keep art from thread

58. Thanks PK for clarifying, doesn't see how it helps beyind lowering tuition. Votes Brightness on those grounds. Tells Sart it's because Hael is Hael in player list

64. Jumps of voting as doesn't need money. Vote tally. No vote the way to go.

I have a number of thoughts based on these posts. 

The first, whilst useful, didn't commit you to any thoughts on the game. It gives the impression of contribution to discussion whilst not giving us anything that might provide an insight into your alignment. Why not conduct some analysis on role distribution, given you're focusing on it?

Your second post raised a red flag for me. You seemed far too eager to agree with Paranoid King's plan, whilst in a self-admitted position of not understanding it. This, to me, gives the impression that you want to be seen to be involved in planning, whilst not presenting a challenging position that might draw attention to yourself.

Your next post seems similarly non-confrontational. You again claim not to see how the plan helps beyond tuition reduction, and then go on to vote on this basis anyway, despite it being to far through the cycle, in accordance with Paranoid King's suggestions.

It is the next post in combination with these that has earned you my votes. Here, you undertake a volte-face, but six posts later, in the face of disagreement with Paranoid King's plan from Drake Marshall, and indeed claim that needing the tuition reduction isn't enough to motivate you to vote. Now, I'm not arguing that opinions can't change in the face of evidence, but you seem to be changing opinion to fit with whatever is said, without your own analysis of plans. 

I will reiterate that my analysis does not extend beyond post 73 of T1M1, and am perfectly willing to accept that there may be major considerations which I have overlooked.

Having read the same posts you analysed, I don't see the same results you do.

To me, all of her posts read as a player who is eager to get going, but uncertain of where to go. She's jumping from opinion to opinion, and letting herself be swayed easily, which doesn't read like a skin dancer to me.

Also, placeholder votes on Aman and DA, to be changed when i find someone more suspicious, if that happens.

[Sart he/him]

"I'm done!" cried Titud. He had finally emerged from his studies, beard ragged, eyes blood shot. Where had the time gone? He had just been at... Oh no. He had forgotten to pay his rent. He checked his pockets. He was broke. More so than usual. He would have to live out on the streets, but it had been worth it. He was finally an E'Lir.

He stopped himself. What use was that if he was just going to keel over from starvation? He had to face facts. He had to leave the university. What was he thinking, staying on for an extra term? That was dumb. He was smarter than this.

"Okay. So, first things first, I need to find lodging." He counted the money he had. Not even a talent to his name. There was always the Mews. If he worked, perhaps he could afford the fee. He would have to drop out... Yes, he would have to drop out. He breathed. No reason to keep prolonging the inevitable.

"How to find more money?" He pondered this question. Perhaps a loan was in order... He had no idea how to pay for it, but that hardly mattered. Living meant more than loan sharks. Finding his resolve, he got up. He was still here for one more semester. He had to make it count.

I haven't read through the thread. Sorry. The twelve hour gaps really don't work with my schedule. I work 9 to 5, so I can only view the thread for a couple of hours on weekdays. I'll try and be more active on the weekend.

[Haelbarde he/him]

7 hours ago, randuir said:

The risk with your plan is that the masters don't regard the amount of votes when spreading their DP around. So one guy with 40 votes, and one guy with 1 will on average each get 20 DP from the masters. If the votes get spread out a bit more, this sin't as big of a risk, but then you need to really stack on the votes to get someone expulsed. Having only 1-2 people with votes on them also opens up possibilities for elim manipulation, which isn't necessarily easy to tell. For example, STINKs gut-vote could be an elim-plot to get Jondesu lashed or expelled if we follow your advice to not spread the votes too much. it could also just be a gut-vote, as I can't really tell with stink.

Regarding Queensteph, I'll get around to that once I've had time to properly go through her posts.

If you put 40 votes on someone, then they will be expelled regardless of where masters put ep (2 complaints = 1 DP). You can probably expell someone with less too. If you then want to make it non-lethal for other candidates then you spread votes around over the rest of the players.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Haelbarde

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

Noremac's eyes snapped open. A glance around confirmed the worst: it had been a lot longer than five minutes. The orange light of evening flooded the green. Had no one thought to wake him? Perhaps Professor Gaeldin forgot about him. Noremac nodded. Yes, he forgot. I hope, he thought.

Noremac shifted up to a sitting position. As he did, a hard object knocked him on the head. "Ow!" He yelped, flinging an arm to his head. He looked frantically around, but there was no assailant. He rubbed the wound, grimacing. Then he noticed something on the ground beside him. His eyes widened.

It was a pear.

"No! Not again! I am TIRED with all of the fruity business, and this does it!" Noremac scooped up the pear and flung it as hard as he could. The green fruit flew into the sky. Immediately after it left his fingers, Noremac dreaded his decision. The fruit was going to come down, and it would probably hurt where it landed. He followed the arc of the green speck, watched it plummet over a building and thud on the other side, obscured from view. He listened, straining for the sounds of screaming or the crumpling of an unconscious body to the ground. His ears heard none. Noremac glanced around warily, if anyone was watching, then wandered on his way, whistling mildly.

Nothing to see here...

[Guest]

John was walking around campus. His next class was at the medica. They were diseccting things today, and it sounded like fun. He was wakling by a building when he heard a woosh.  He looked up and noticed a small, green fruit comping straight toward him. He quickly caught it and looked at it. A pear. He shrugged and took a bite. Not half bad. He continued and notice a man discretely walking away. He ignored the man and headed toward the building.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

5 hours ago, STINK said:

Don't know what that means yet sorry, Linguistics is a weird course.

Caesura is a sort of pause in the middle of a line, in poetry. Not very much unlike a comma, really.

But that wasn't really the point of my joke. The joke was that in the Kingkiller books, Kvothe was given a sword that he decided to name Caesura.

I loved the Kingkiller books and I might be making a lot of references to them, forgive me.

 

Greyson sifted through the archives, looking for something, anything about these skindancers. Something to concretely define them, make them something he could deal with.

Typically, the story went something like this. A very long time ago, there was much evil in all of Temerant. People lived in darkness, and were possessed by demons called skindancers. Then Tehlu came down to earth and drove out all the demons and brought people to repentance. The skindancers have never been seen since...

Greyson wondered at this. Have the skindancers returned then? Why?

And yet. There were stranger tales about the skindancers, if he looked hard enough. Tantalizing hints of another version of events. Some few accounts did not refer to skindancers as demons, but as "Fae." One such account attributed the disappearance of skindancers to a mysterious group known as "the Sithe." At first he thought the Sithe might simply be a reference Tehlu's angels... But the account never even mentioned Tehlu. Furthermore, it referenced substantial casualties among the Sithe in the struggle against skindancers, implying they weren't immortal angels, but possibly normal people...

It was all very interesting, but not really what he needed to know. Where do they come from? And do they have weaknesses?

So far, none of the accounts mentioned any such weaknesses. Not even iron, which worried him. Greyson sighed. Is there nothing I can do to ward them off?

In the very least, the stories seemed to agree on one thing. Although they could seemingly discard one host and move on to another at will, the skindancers were limited to what they could do in a physical host. Mundane protection might prove to be as effective as arcane protection.

[queensteph she/her]

This post is going to take forever since I never got to say my thoughts on last cycle.

I will c&p things and quotes will be in bold and purple since I can't quote from the closed thread. This will probably get posted way later then when I'm starting it bc i only have a few minutes rn and I'll continue later.

Drake: "As for voting this cycle... I suppose voting on a genuine suspicion this turn is a good idea. Voter participation isn't quite so critical in this game, where lynches don't reveal alignment, but actual discussion about suspicions might prove enlightening. I wouldn't vote for no reason though. Try to find a real suspicion to vote on this cycle, even if its a very weak one. We still have a chance at learning information from a lynch, if we treat it like a real lynch."

While I think it'd be a good idea to cast actual suspicious votes, I wish people hadn't made me the target.  you meanies.

(Ok this is lit taking forever and I'm too lazy to do this I'm thinking abt giving up on this post, I'll prob just comment on things from this cycle. )

 

Sorry for getting in late, it's kinda hard when the middle of the cycle is my sleeping time.

18 hours ago, Eolhondras said:

I.E a list of rich players who do not have 40% chance of a sabotage failing?

I won't be saying where I'm staying thank you very much. Every one seems to be trying to kill me anyways.

Which doesn't seem smart to me seeing as how we've already lost one Vintish Noble, and I'm sure the skindancers would be glad to get rid of me as a resource.

 

14 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

I wasn't able to complete my analysis last night, due to the volume of posts and the length of time it takes, but will get up what I have when I get home from work, and will continue.

For now, I'd reiterate the point I made about voting with intent. No, we don't immediately find out whether or not our target was a skindancer, but we do get to build a picture of which players others defend, which is incredibly useful when we do start gaining information about alignments. At that point, we can catch multiple skindancers through association, rather than having to catch each individually.

As such, Queensteph, Queensteph: 

In C1, you've made four posts by the point I had to cease analysis for the night.

I have the following post summaries in my spreadsheet:

8. RP, groups players by social class

51. Asks PK to explain the mass voting. Sounds sensible, but confusing. Doesn't want to follow a plan she doesn't understand. Asks Stink whether it's not a good idea to keep art from thread

58. Thanks PK for clarifying, doesn't see how it helps beyind lowering tuition. Votes Brightness on those grounds. Tells Sart it's because Hael is Hael in player list

64. Jumps of voting as doesn't need money. Vote tally. No vote the way to go.

I have a number of thoughts based on these posts. 

The first, whilst useful, didn't commit you to any thoughts on the game. It gives the impression of contribution to discussion whilst not giving us anything that might provide an insight into your alignment. Why not conduct some analysis on role distribution, given you're focusing on it?

Your second post raised a red flag for me. You seemed far too eager to agree with Paranoid King's plan, whilst in a self-admitted position of not understanding it. This, to me, gives the impression that you want to be seen to be involved in planning, whilst not presenting a challenging position that might draw attention to yourself.

Your next post seems similarly non-confrontational. You again claim not to see how the plan helps beyond tuition reduction, and then go on to vote on this basis anyway, despite it being to far through the cycle, in accordance with Paranoid King's suggestions.

It is the next post in combination with these that has earned you my votes. Here, you undertake a volte-face, but six posts later, in the face of disagreement with Paranoid King's plan from Drake Marshall, and indeed claim that needing the tuition reduction isn't enough to motivate you to vote. Now, I'm not arguing that opinions can't change in the face of evidence, but you seem to be changing opinion to fit with whatever is said, without your own analysis of plans. 

I will reiterate that my analysis does not extend beyond post 73 of T1M1, and am perfectly willing to accept that there may be major considerations which I have overlooked.

1. I literally barely knew how to play at that point and I hadn't even gone over what all of the roles were yet. I just had grouped them for myself for later analysis so I thought I'd share it to save people some time.

2. It sounded like a good plan and I wanted to follow it since no one else was really suggesting any and he seemed to have a better understanding of the game than I.

To get a plan going you NEED to have people eager to support you, so that's why I was trying to help him out but was unsure of it so that's why I asked him to clarify.

I didn't understand how the DP worked yet either and was trying to learn as I went instead of studying the rules which was wrong on my part I was just being lazy.

3. Then, when I had looked over the rules for myself I saw how the votes affected DP I decided it made sense to vote. When I said I didn't see how it helped, I meant in terms of information because it doesn't help. 

4. After I PERSONALLY analyzed it I said:

QueenSteph: After re-reading and analyzing the rules further I have a better understanding of the DP and EP system, 

so I don't really think the random complaint casting is worth it. I'd rather have 1DP then reducing my tuition by half a talent.

It might be worth it if you're a lower rank and everyone casted complaints, but seeing as no one is really jumping on to this plan

I'll be out since I don't really need the money (sorry ). BrightnessRadiant no offense lov u  

So how can you say I didn't do my own analyzing? the only reason I ended up placing votes was because some voted on me (wilson i think ?)

and so I wanted to spread the votes around to lower my risks.

10 hours ago, little wilson said:

I agree with both? Particularly about Steph, but I mentioned I was suspicious of her last turn, and that's why I voted on her turn 1. My suspicion has not lessened.

why were you even suspicious of me fr I had barely done anything. and it should've been clear I was just confused by the rules. so for that reason Wilson

10 hours ago, Ornstein said:

... i'm not sure.

 

About Queensteph though, I don't think i agree. 

thank u

10 hours ago, Paranoid King said:

Ah. My bad. I tried searching for Sart's name with the search bar.

Well, complaints this game don't give us info like they do in others. They just tend to inconvenience people. So, vote on people you want to inconvenience, not those you want to learn more about?

Yeah, Queensteph seems worth voting on. I'll go for it.

PK Why are you for casting a complaint on me when I ended up going with YOUR plan. meanie

6 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@Cluny the Scourge, to me it's her jumping on the bandwagon and straight back off that makes me suspicious of her. 

Not really sure the value in calling for actions when we're discussing votes this cycle?

If I'm more likely to be correct, in your own words, why are you still voting on HH? He is suspicious (or at least has had a couple of flags in T1M1 (which I hope to post soon - working on T1M2 analysis >>), but you're inconsistent, such is always a red flag to me.

I literally explained my reasoning though. I didn't understand it and then I thoroughly read the rules and posted about it??

Edited May 4, 2017 by queensteph
grammatical error

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Oh, voting, yes. I'll post on that. Particularly in response to Steph's recent post.

I personally think Steph is innocent and haven't seen much to suspect about her so far. I don't really trust her much either, but I don't see a reason to vote on her in particular honestly.

Probably my biggest suspicion is still HH (not only for previously stated reasons but also because of his one line of reasoning to join the Steph bandwagon).

I'm deliberating voting on you a second time... But in my experience that doesn't end well. So instead, I'll just encourage anyone who recently acquired an investigative sort of power to consider investigating HH.

Ummm I'll try and do another RP post maybe... Probably realistically I won't be able to do so until next turn though. Next turn I'll try and get a few RP posts in.

[little wilson she/her]

2 minutes ago, queensteph said:

the only reason I ended up placing votes was because some voted on me (wilson i think ?)

and so I wanted to spread the votes around to lower my risks.

why were you even suspicious of me fr I had barely done anything. and it should've been clear I was just confused by the rules. so for that reason Wilson

Nope, I was most definitely not the first vote on you T1M1. I voted on you because of this little thing right here:

On 4/30/2017 at 10:35 AM, little wilson said:

I may only be a Cealdish Commoner, but if you want to get the tuition reduction, I'm staying at the Golden Pony, so I can take two votes and not have to worry about the Masters. Just don't do more than two.

On 4/30/2017 at 11:30 AM, queensteph said:

wilson I forgot that I had two votes

13 minutes later:

On 4/30/2017 at 11:43 AM, little wilson said:

Oh, and Steph. Why does a Vintish noblewoman need to vote twice when only the first vote reduces tuition? Why not let someone poorer take advantage of the sacrifice?

And your response:

On 4/30/2017 at 11:48 AM, queensteph said:

 (I Ninja'd Stink's vote on wilson.) @little wilson I was trying to even things out since not everyone has voted and there's only a few minutes left, I'll just put my second vote on someone if no one else adds a vote before the turn is over. I wasn't even thinking about the tuitions.

Really? Even things out when I'd stated that I was in the Golden Pony and therefore could take 2 votes without having any issues? And when I'd also specifically stated that my offering myself up was for those who wanted tuition reduction, which you didn't even care about.

To me, it looks like you don't actually care who you're voting for. This is even more evident with your vote on me. Are you actually suspicious of me? You really think a Skindancer offered themselves up for the poorer students to get tuition reductions? Steph Steph. Guess what? I don't care about tuition reductions. I'm voting on you because I think you're a Skindancer. I'm also voting on you because I'm in Imre right now and I have it on very good authority that there was at least one gram in the apothecary last turn and now all of those grams are sold out. Since grams are 15 talents, that means that only a Vintish Noble could've purchased one on cycle 1. But Bodyguards right now are 8 Talents and they do about the same thing--except that Bodyguards also protect from theft. So why would a person purchase a gram over a Bodyguard, when the Bodyguards are almost half the price of the grams? Well, I can think of one very compelling reason: you can't pass a Bodyguard, but you can pass a gram. Who would really like a protection that you can pass between people as needed? The Skindancers. I believe that there is a Vintish Skindancer. And I believe it is you. I suppose it could be Burnt, but the way Cluny jumped to your defense rings more of someone who knows exactly what your alignment is and really doesn't want you expelled than someone who just truly, truly believes on cycle 2 that you must be a student.