Long Game 33: Life

[DeTess she/her]

3 minutes ago, Magestar said:

If we could restrict votes to people in the Golden Pony, that would be great, actually.  Do we know what happens in the case of a no vote?  I feel like it's probably nothing, but I'm unsure.

I'm pretty sure nothing happens, as the masters can't distribute DP over people without votes (or under the golden pony treshhold), there won't be any DP that goes around. And if no DP goes around, no one comes on the horns.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

56 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

@BrightnessRadiant, think C1 like a puzzle piece. You can't judge what the picture is by just one piece. Only after you have gathered multiple pieces and put them together can you truly understand the picture. C1 should not be taken seriously on its own.

Not on its own to be sure, but definitely should still be taken seriously...it is a piece of the puzzle after all 

27 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Lol.  Not a game goes by without someone getting a weird feeling about me.  Don't worry, it's perfectly normal, however, side effects may include soul consuming paranoia, intense feelings of doubt, and unfounded accusations.  

Haha maybe you're just one of those kinda people 

_____________________________________

Vote tally: 

(1) Burnt Spaghetti - Alvron

(1) Hemalurgic Headshot - Drake Marshall

(1) Wilson - Aonar

_____________________________________

Not sure how I feel about voting this turn. Last time it seemed like most of the votes came in last minute. I want to vote for someone I suspect, but I don't have much to go on yet...hmmm.

If we do nothing though...won't the Elims have a chance to cause another person to go crazy this turn? Maybe we should try and vote to see if we can stop them? I don't see how the vote is even helpful though...it won't tell us if we're right.  

I feel so helpless right now. Anyone have any ideas about what is the best step forward for the students this early in the game?

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

55 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Burnt Spaghetti, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, you wouldn't happen to both be staying at the golden pony?

I am not, so Drake's vote will be... unfortunate. 

[Straw he/him]

@Drake Marshall Please take your vote off HH.

[DeTess she/her]

5 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

If we do nothing though...won't the Elims have a chance to cause another person to go crazy this turn? Maybe we should try and vote to see if we can stop them? I don't see how the vote is even helpful though...it won't tell us if we're right.  

The action order from the rules:

Quote

Complaint-Filing
All Non-Offensive Role & Item Actions, including Imre actions
All Offensive Actions
Elevations
Insanity Roll
The Horns
Events Only Occurring Just Before the First Turn of Each Cycle
Stipend Payout
Admissions & Tuition
Lodging

As you can see, offensive actions happen before the horns, so someone taken on the horns and getting lashing will still be able to do an offensive action (like sabotage) first. This is why I'm really disliking these initial lynches. they might be useful later, as Aonar described, but until people actually start getting actions, they are far more likely to hurt the village. this also makes me suspicious of the people that initiated these lynches. I don't really see what changed from last cycle that made Drake decide to vote this cycle, and he voted far closer to the end, increasing the chances of people getting expelled or getting a 3-turn roleblock. 

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

4 hours ago, Alvron said:

Burnt.  I need the reduction in fees.   Plus I don't want her to think I've forgotten about LG24. 

Stormit. Trust me i havent. I felt a growing pit of despair from themoment i saw you join, dont wory >>

1 hour ago, randuir said:

@Burnt Spaghetti, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, you wouldn't happen to both be staying at the golden pony?

Urm. Nope. Um. Hrm.

[Darkness Ascendant he/him]

Y'all just vote on me or something. Dead men don't spend talents and don't give two jots. You lot can monopolise on me or something.

[DeTess she/her]

Since it's looking unlikely at this point that all dangerous votes will be retracted, I'll be voting on Drake Marshall. I've explained before why I thought his actions where suspicious. I'll put my second vote out in a bit to help spread the damage around enough. @Elbereth (or other GM's) is the spread of the DP handed out by masters influenced by how many votes someone has? For example, say, Burnt, Drake and HH all have 1 vote, and DA has 30, would DA be more likely to get DP from the masters, or would it be spread evenly among the 4 of them?

Edited May 2, 2017 by randuir

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Sounds good. Ill vote for Darkness Ascendant to spread the dp. And for Aman since he's also somewhat dropping out.  No i dont need reductions. But id also like to not be expelled. 

I'm watching you alv *suspicious glare*. Only reason i aint voting for you is cause i dont need more consequesesss.

 

Also Randiur, the dp isnt spread 'evenly' i didnt think. Its randomly distruibuted isnt it? Just more people to choose from is a lower risk. Might have 10 options out there, and one could still get the wrath of all and be expelled. And every 2 votes=1 DP. So 30 votes on DA would give him 15DP and a 65% chance of expulsion

[DeTess she/her]

3 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Also Randiur, the dp isnt spread 'evenly' i didnt think. Its randomly distruibuted isnt it? Just more people to choose from is a lower risk. Might have 10 options out there, and one could still get the wrath of all and be expelled. And every 2 votes=1 DP. So 30 votes on DA would give him 15DP and a 65% chance of expulsion

Right, what I meant to ask was whether the chance of someone getting extra DP from the masters is affected by the amount of votes. So would everyone voting on DA mean he'd have a 99% chance (or something around that) to get each DP from the masters, or would he only have a 25% chance if there are 3 others with only 1 vote.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Ah. I think its still random. The rules doc says the distribution will be random, based on students who have at least one complaint filed against them. So id assume the amount of complaints doesnt affect the dp distribution. But still worth a gm confirmation i think.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Darkness Ascendant and Aman

I'm a tad bit busier than I expected right now. I probably won't be active until term 2 month 2, but I am skimming thw thread, and I will continue to vote on the dropouts.

[Droughtbringer]

2 hours ago, randuir said:

Since it's looking unlikely at this point that all dangerous votes will be retracted, I'll be voting on Drake Marshall. I've explained before why I thought his actions where suspicious. I'll put my second vote out in a bit to help spread the damage around enough. @Elbereth (or other GM's) is the spread of the DP handed out by masters influenced by how many votes someone has? For example, say, Burnt, Drake and HH all have 1 vote, and DA has 30, would DA be more likely to get DP from the masters, or would it be spread evenly among the 4 of them?

The amount of votes on any singular person does not increase the amount of DP placed on said person.

[Eolhondras he/him]

Darkness Ascendant

Night all, I'll say a prayer to the RNG gods.

[Haelbarde he/him]

The Masters have their 10(?) DP to throw around,  which is randomly distributed over those who have complaints on them (and I'm pretty sure it's just over the number of different players,  not weighted by the number of complaints) . Every two complaints then adds 1 additional DP on top of the randomly distributed stuff from the NPC masters.

[Paranoid King he/him]

Well, if we're voting again, I might as well drop a vote on Amanuensis. And another on Amanuensis. Just to lighten the load on others.

It's already been mentioned, but I think I need to emphasize: Put in your housing orders. You won't stay where you are unless you specifically say that you're staying there. Unless you put in your housing orders, you will be put on the streets!

For quick reference, if you're on the streets, positive actions on you have a 50% chance of failing, actions taken by you have a 50% chance of failing, and there's a 25% chance that you'll just die.

[little wilson she/her]

9 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Paranoid King I know I said that I wouldn't suspect you of being evil just because you started the voting, but reading back through your posts I got the feeling that you didn't care too much about what would happen to the people who got voted on. Everyone was repeatedly stating good arguments in the thread about why we shouldn't vote on that turn, yet you never removed your votes, or even appeared to consider trying to see their point of view. When turn 2 began you said that you had seen those posts, and considered removing your votes, but that their were already too many other votes to stop it at that point. That could be true, but I still don't like how you said others would probably have voted anyways if you hadn't. It would have been a good idea to at least try to get a no vote going. These are all just theories, and I kinda feel like you weren't trying to make anything negative happen. I just thought I should voice my thoughts on anything I thought suspicious(however minuscule).

Emphasis mine.

This is exactly how I felt about Steph last cycle and why I voted on her even though she already had a vote.

Also, just a couple additional comments. Each Master has 5 DP to use for the Horns each turn. Since there are 9 Masters, that's 45 DP involved in the secret vote (I saw someone throwing around 40 earlier, which wouldn't normally be so far off, but in this case, it kind of is, since even just a couple DP can change the probability of different things happening). A person who has a single complaint filed against them has just as much chance to get some of that 45 DP as a someone who has 20 complaints. The only difference is that the person with 20 complaints starts the secret vote with 10 DP already on them, so it's certain they're going on the Horns and will face possible expulsion.

And while the votes on DA and Aman are great and all, adding more of them isn't going to decrease the chances that HH or Burnt gets punished through lashes or even expulsion.

To that end, I will throw a vote on Mage, since the other Vintish either already have votes right now or went on the Horns last turn. Why Vintish? The Vintish are the best to deal with the 2 talent inflation in the event of going on the Horns, other than the Aturan nobles, who don't have the 33% tuition increase that the Vintish have. However, the Vintish are certainly at the Horse and Four in the first term, whereas the Aturans could be at either the Horse and Four or The Golden Pony. Voting on someone in the Golden Pony right now won't help those are certainly going in front of the Masters, so unless an Aturan who isn't in the Pony wants to volunteer as tribute, the Vinitsh are the best to spread the vote amongst. Or piling three votes on Aturans to counter the -1 DP of the Pony, but....that seems little extreme.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Goodmorning everyone (I probably should have told y'alls I would be going to sleep earlier),

It looks to me like voting isn't working out?

Well, fine then. I definitely had doubts about casting a vote in the first place. @Eolhondras brought up most of them. I still think it would be good to treat this like a real lynch... But maybe that's simply not possible. Hemalurgic, you can go off the hook. @Hemalurgic_Headshot

 

As for @randuir voting on me... I mean I think my reasoning for trying to make a real lynch out of this was made clear. You express confusion that I see this cycle as different from last cycle. The distinction between why I was against voting last cycle was that last cycle people were voting purely for tuition reductions.

But, honestly? This turn I'm lodging at the golden pony, so feel free to vote on me. I can take a second vote off an edema if any need it. Note that next cycle I will not be at the Golden Pony so this is a one time offer.

 

@little wilson consider retracting your vote, 'cause I just retracted mine.

You too @Alvron. If you need the tuition reduction fees that badly, vote on me instead of burnt. I can take one more vote without suffering consequences.

 

EDIT: Also, I realize I'm changing it up kind of late. If the current votes don't get retracted, I'll be online at the end of the cycle ready to cast votes again and spread the load of DP. I highly recommend that anyone else who wants to retract their vote also be online at the end to re-cast it in the event that someone fails to retract.

EDIT2: I guess we can vote on Amanuensis and Darkness Ascendant, because both are backing out of the game. I wish 'em both good luck in IRL things.

Edited May 2, 2017 by Drake Marshall

[little wilson she/her]

@Drake Marshall, Alv already said that he very likely won't be able to retract. He's at work, won't get off until right at rollover, and can't use electronic devices while working. Therefore, we have a choice: either we can all retract and hope that he gets on in time to retract as well or we can vote on others to spread out the vote more. If we all retract and he doesn't have time to retract, Burnt will almost certainly be expelled (even with the spread with DA and Aman), and even if she's not expelled, she'll likely end up with a three turn roleblock.

[Magestar he/him]

5 hours ago, randuir said:

I'm pretty sure nothing happens, as the masters can't distribute DP over people without votes (or under the golden pony treshhold), there won't be any DP that goes around. And if no DP goes around, no one comes on the horns.

Yeah, that's what I was assuming.  Looks like that won't be happening, though.

4 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Haha maybe you're just one of those kinda people 

Unfortunately, that seems like one of the most likely reasons.   Ah well.

27 minutes ago, little wilson said:

To that end, I will throw a vote on Mage, since the other Vintish either already have votes right now or went on the Horns last turn. Why Vintish? The Vintish are the best to deal with the 2 talent inflation in the event of going on the Horns, other than the Aturan nobles, who don't have the 33% tuition increase that the Vintish have. However, the Vintish are certainly at the Horse and Four in the first term, whereas the Aturans could be at either the Horse and Four or The Golden Pony. Voting on someone in the Golden Pony right now won't help those are certainly going in front of the Masters, so unless an Aturan who isn't in the Pony wants to volunteer as tribute, the Vinitsh are the best to spread the vote amongst. Or piling three votes on Aturans to counter the -1 DP of the Pony, but....that seems little extreme.

I can take that.  I was actually going to put a vote on myself for those reasons, but I can see that doing so will not be necessary.  

In the interest of spreading around the danger, I'll vote on QueenSteph, who is also a Vintish Nobleperson.  And also... Alv. 

Hmm.  I think that's all for now.

edit;  Are all these votes on Aman and DA actually doing anything?  I'm fairly certain that it's just increasing the likelihood of something bad happening to them, rather then decreasing the likelihood of it happening to anyone else.  Any number of people can be taken on the horns, and loading people with votes won't spread the Master's DP.  I think.

edit 2; ...  I'm going to have to agree with Wilson about spreading votes.  Better not to chance it on removing votes, especially since Alv might not be able to remove his. 

Edited May 2, 2017 by Magestar

[Stick. she/her]

So everyone's voting on either DA or Aman, with an exception of...four? people. I'm honestly not sure who - if anyone at all- I'm going to vote on.

Also, since I was brought on the Horns, will my tuition increase by 2 talents? Or is that only applicable to people who will get brought on the horns due to the votes this term?

I think I'll place my vote on DA. To reduce my tuition a bit if nothing else.

9 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

For quick reference, if you're on the streets, positive actions on you have a 50% chance of failing, actions taken by you have a 50% chance of failing, and there's a 25% chance that you'll just die.

Sounds wonderful. Think I'll give it a try if I get bored later on.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

@Drake Marshall, Alv already said that he very likely won't be able to retract. He's at work, won't get off until right at rollover, and can't use electronic devices while working. Therefore, we have a choice: either we can all retract and hope that he gets on in time to retract as well or we can vote on others to spread out the vote more. If we all retract and he doesn't have time to retract, Burnt will almost certainly be expelled (even with the spread with DA and Aman), and even if she's not expelled, she'll likely end up with a three turn roleblock.

damnation.

Well, I'm really not one to play long odds on something like this. I guess I should change my votes to other people to spread it out.

I'm regretting starting another round of pointless voting. I wish we could do... Something useful this cycle. Not having a meaningful vote or really not being able to do anything useful for the first 3 turns is irritating.

I'll retract on Amanuensis and Darkness Ascendant then. One vote reverts back to HH (sorry man) and a second goes to... Arinian maybe. I don't think he has any other votes yet, and possibly I'd rather vote on a noble then a commoner. Sorry Arin.

To be realistic about this, we probably aren't coming through this without somebody getting whipped. I suppose that's preferable to an expulsion. If you suspect someone even slightly, I suggest you throw their name in the hat. This is literally a raffle where the winner gets a lashing.

May the RNG gods watch over you all.

[Aonar he/him]

Ugh, I need to post more. And post RP... my tuition is going to be garbage, and I'm broke to begin with.... I don't really have time though. >> Maybe next term. (Although since I'm not going to be able to pay tuition it's not like it matters...)

[Arinian]

2 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

damnation.

Well, I'm really not one to play long odds on something like this. I guess I should change my votes to other people to spread it out.

I'm regretting starting another round of pointless voting. I wish we could do... Something useful this cycle. Not having a meaningful vote or really not being able to do anything useful for the first 3 turns is irritating.

I'll retract on Amanuensis and Darkness Ascendant then. One vote reverts back to HH (sorry man) and a second goes to... Arinian maybe. I don't think he has any other votes yet, and possibly I'd rather vote on a noble then a commoner. Sorry Arin.

To be realistic about this, we probably aren't coming through this without somebody getting whipped. I suppose that's preferable to an expulsion. If you suspect someone even slightly, I suggest you throw their name in the hat. This is literally a raffle where the winner gets a lashing.

May the RNG gods watch over you all.

Hey! I'm staying at Horse and Four! And I really don't like to lose money. 

DA

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, so if Drake is staying in the pony, voting on him will not actually reduce the chance of anyone getting expelled, unless someone else is going to add some votes to him. I'm still annoyed/suspicious that the's started this round of voting this late in the cycle, but damage control takes precedence. I'm voting Ornstein and Cluny.

The following people currently have votes: Wilson, Amanuensis, DA, HH, Arinian, Burnt, Mage, Queesteph, Alvron. Of these, Wilson has indicated she's saying at the golden pony, so the 1 vote on her on't go through. Ornstein, Alvron and Cluny could also possibly be staying at the pony (but that goes for everyone apart from the Vints and the Edema Ruh). That means the votes will be split over at least 6 people, which means an average of 7DP (45/6, thanks for the correction Wilson). Since people need at least 11 DP to be considered for expulsion, this should reduce the risk of people getting expelled significantly.

Arinian, getting voted on sucks, but you're in a slightly better position to take a 2 talent penalty than people who get less than 10 talents in their stipend.