Jump to content

QF77: (S)Andor(son) Elimination


Recommended Posts

Posted
1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Stupid homework 😔

Do your homework bro. I gotta give a data analytics presentation on wrestling later (don't ask long story.)

2 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Day one, I got a message from our Friendly Neighborhood ISB Traitor and the Durasteel one it seems you guys have already talked about

Day two, I got a follow up on Durasteel

Ngl this is deeply weird to me because I then seem to be the only one who received the message I did, which makes me consider if the Elim in question felt like doing a more focused approach - that's a difference in MO and also confidence level. Unfortunately for them, they're also just wrong. Unfortunately for me, there was just no way I could bait a reveal from them.

Posted
1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Did no one else get the message Kas got?

Edit: on mobile this is hard @Argenti thats the same that Lotus and i got

ah, neat. I must have missed that one.

Posted
1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Did no one else get the message Kas got?

What did Kas get?

1 minute ago, Argenti said:

That's new.

It told me to message Booknewt, Ace, and Fura with the word "Durasteel"

Said one of the three was the sender

For the record, I messaged no one

Posted
1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

What did Kas get?

It told me to message Booknewt, Ace, and Fura with the word "Durasteel"

Said one of the three was the sender

For the record, I messaged no one

I messaged all three for fun, I wanted to see what would happen

Posted
Just now, Hoid Slayer said:

What did Kas get?

It told me to message Booknewt, Ace, and Fura with the word "Durasteel"

Said one of the three was the sender

For the record, I messaged no one

Where's my PM then? 😢

jk  hw is importsnt but thats good to know i got a different group of three. Will think more about this later

Posted
Just now, Hoid Slayer said:

It told me to message Booknewt, Ace, and Fura with the word "Durasteel"

Wait this is interesting. Fura claimed I was in the message he received. If this is true, then we're just seeing copies of this being sent out with different players listed - this likely indicates at least two Elims managed to hook up.

2 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

What did Kas get?

I got a very weird message asking me to do a code. No list of names, durasteel not mentioned, and two authentication parts.

Posted
Just now, Furamirionind said:

Where's my PM then? 😢

jk  hw is importsnt but thats good to know i got a different group of three. Will think more about this later

Oohhh that's interesting

Just now, IHadAThought said:

I messaged all three for fun, I wanted to see what would happen

Who was your group of three?

Posted
Just now, Kasimir said:

Wait this is interesting. Fura claimed I was in the message he received. If this is true, then we're just seeing copies of this being sent out with different players listed - this likely indicates at least two Elims managed to hook up.

I got a very weird message asking me to do a code. No list of names, durasteel not mentioned, and two authentication parts.

I guess there's also the world someone in the claim set is an Elim lying to spread FUD ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Posted
1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Oohhh that's interesting

Who was your group of three?

Divergent, booknewt and Kas, Fura had the same

Posted
1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I guess there's also the world someone in the claim set is an Elim lying to spread FUD ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What's FUD?

Just now, IHadAThought said:

Divergent, booknewt and Kas, Fura had the same

...

That's... odd

Did anyone else get a variation of this message?

Posted (edited)

@DrakeMarshall:

Quote

Each member of the rebellion may also choose to send 1 anonymous dead drop message per cycle. They may specify any number of other players as recipients.

Does sending the exact same message but with a different list of people to different recipients burn up more than one message?

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

What's FUD?

  Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Shorthand for mindgames or just trying to distract/lead the Village down bad/wrong paths, cause Villagers to doubt good credences/reads, that sort of thing.

Edited to add 2:

Guys, odd thought. Can we then presume that whether or not the Elim was in the set of three, they presumably did not send in a kill order on any of the three players named? Be awkward to do this and have one of them drop dead.

Edited to add 3:

Actually it's interesting to me there's a Newt overlap across both sets. I'm trying to think of what could motivate two separate Elims working together to do this.

Quote

Divergent, booknewt and Kas, Fura had the same

Quote

Booknewt, Ace, and Fura

 

Edited by Kasimir
formatting
Posted
6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

 

Guys, odd thought. Can we then presume that whether or not the Elim was in the set of three, they presumably did not send in a kill order on any of the three players named? Be awkward to do this and have one of them drop dead.

I think we can, though it’d be of the 4, if we combine the two sets. I think this means that at least two rebels have found each other.

Posted
Just now, IHadAThought said:

I think we can, though it’d be of the 4, if we combine the two sets. I think this means that at least two rebels have found each other.

Low key theorising it's via a Spymaster add/scan, which might mean Spymaster involvement/implication in the messages. Claiming blindly like that is a big risk. I'd not expect them to do it unless they had someone they had good synergy with in this game. (tldr; I've seen some variant of this situation from both the village and Elim side, and the Elim run, neither Drake nor I claimed to each other, which caused us both to lose the game because despite our synergy we had massive distrust issues 😔 )

Does mean profiling the messages might really be promising but I'm hesitant to get everyone to focus on it because honestly if you can do post reads and/or are better at that sort of thing, messages also can be a distraction. I guess we all just contribute however we can.

The bright side is that this might imply we should see some Elim TMI and coordination in voting. That's good because that brings some flavour of vote analysis back online for us.

Edited to add:

I recognise someone reading this might be like "gdi Kas what have you not played" to which my answer is, "WWE2k25 😔 "

But also yeah I went a bit overboard this year in terms of trying to expand my exposure to games and the result was burnout.

Posted
10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Does sending the exact same message but with a different list of people to different recipients burn up more than one message?

I doubt it

This is actually quite interesting

My initial assumption was that the message could be elim bait, sent out by an ISB loyal to try to trick rebels into clicking it

But the double complicates things

Scenario 1: Two villagers

I think this is unlikely; it implies a villa approached someone who's alignment they weren't sure of, and proposed this plan. It actually sounds kinda like something I would do, likely as a test of some sort - but the intention isn't clear. Perhaps someone with more time and brainpower than me can figure it out.

Scenario 2: Two elims

This is probably more likely, but still weird. It implies two elims found each other, and decided to send out this message. In that case, there is indeed likely at least one elim within the pool of:

Kas, Divergent, Ace, Fura, Booknewt (twice)

Intentions behind two different messages unclear. Spread out villa suspicion, maybe?

Scenario 3: One elim, one villa

This is where things get interesting.

It could be an elim who willingly approached a villa, posing as scenario 1 to gain trust while also harboring ulterior motives. Would be hard to further those motives, though, with villa breathing down their neck.

Or it could be a villa who unwittingly approached an elim, and the elim is playing along.

Most interestingly, it could be an elim who approached a villa - and the villa played along, pretending to be an elim and seeing where this leads. Lowkey, I hope that scenario is true cause that sounds absolutely awesome.

...

In all worlds, Booknewt repeat is weird - as is different message.

Aaaaand I really should not be doing this right now. I'll hand it off to those with more time, and walk away knowing I have done something.

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Low key theorising it's via a Spymaster add/scan, which might mean Spymaster involvement/implication in the messages. Claiming blindly like that is a big risk. I'd not expect them to do it unless they had someone they had good synergy with in this game. (tldr; I've seen some variant of this situation from both the village and Elim side, and the Elim run, neither Drake nor I claimed to each other, which caused us both to lose the game because despite our synergy we had massive distrust issues 😔 )

Does mean profiling the messages might really be promising but I'm hesitant to get everyone to focus on it because honestly if you can do post reads and/or are better at that sort of thing, messages also can be a distraction. I guess we all just contribute however we can.

The bright side is that this might imply we should see some Elim TMI and coordination in voting. That's good because that brings some flavour of vote analysis back online for us.

Edited to add:

I recognise someone reading this might be like "gdi Kas what have you not played" to which my answer is, "WWE2k25 😔 "

But also yeah I went a bit overboard this year in terms of trying to expand my exposure to games and the result was burnout.

Also addition this reads quite villa to me

Trying to steer the discussion back towards productive motives is generally a good thing - although it could also be e!Kas not wanting us to figure out what is going on here. After the last LG I played with him, I'm wary about making a solid read.

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

My initial assumption was that the message could be elim bait, sent out by an ISB loyal to try to trick rebels into clicking it

It has to be a fake claim, no? ISB loyals cannot at all send out anon messages. Those are distinctive. If it's Elim bait, basically one of them did this to try to get an Elim to use the word in the thread, or in PMs, but with the extent to which the messages are being discussed (same with the last durasteel one), that got washed real fast.

Soddit, you should be doing your homework, and it is nearly 0644hrs and I haven't slept, thoughts and incense for my presentation ig because I'm gonna be doing it on half a brain 😔

Edited to add:

6 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

After the last LG I played with him, I'm wary about making a solid read.

I acknowledge this is deserved.

Edited by Kasimir
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It has to be a fake claim, no? ISB loyals cannot at all send out anon messages. Those are distinctive. If it's Elim bait, basically one of them did this to try to get an Elim to use the word in the thread, or in PMs, but with the extent to which the messages are being discussed (same with the last durasteel one), that got washed real fast.

Oh... I missed that 🫣

Okay, so we're basically in scenario 2

Scenario 2.1:

Elims are actually fishing for teammates. I'm now starting to think Booknewt could be bait, with the elims knowing we were gonna share info, and multiple messages spreading suspicion in thread. One message could be legit, while the other filler - only intended to stick in some names for villagers to chase down.

If this is the world we live in, why didn't the elims send the message out to everyone? Why only certain people, if they can pick as many as they want?

Scenario 2.2:

Elims aren't fishing for teammates, they just want to incriminate villas. They want us running down this rabbit hole.

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Soddit, you should be doing your homework, and it is nearly 0644hrs and I haven't slept, thoughts and incense for my presentation ig because I'm gonna be doing it on half a brain 😔

*pat pat*

It's okay Kas

We will fail together 😔

Slaves to SE

Also, I really hope you haven't not slept in 644 hours, because if so, you better be lying down right now

Posted
1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Okay, so we're basically in scenario 2

Yes and no I guess. In the world Fura and Lotus are both villagers (one of your scenarios, or I guess the E/V world), they basically make this claim and slowly disseminate it to try to test for reactions. This does require them to have trusted each other but would be a world in which no message was actually sent (which is what I assumed you were thinking about.) I'm trying to work out what happens in this world, but that's the point my brain stopped cooperating.

My instinct was to treat the messages as real but:

Hmm. Okay let's look at these considerations:

-You and I both got single-appearance messages. (I'm not fully sure an Elim can choose to vary the text of the message when sending it on because to me, the different lists in the message text should count as two messages, otherwise one Elim just texts the entire group, gives them all a different code word, and then calls it a day, which makes hooking up with each other trivial by D3.)

-Moreover, suppose Lotus and Fura are in fact running a test. The big question is, where are the other messages? You and I both got uniques. But a lot of people seem to have received durasteel last night, and sufficient people received the second planets message as well. If Lotus and Fura are lying, does it mean the only two messages are yours and mine? Isn't that still a weird shift that should poke holes in this scenario because Lotus and Fura would've known to expect people claiming extra messages, potentially widely-disseminated like D1 Durasteel and possibly a nonsensical count?) [IDK tbh I'm thinking aloud and maybe not coherently.]

-I just find it very weird that you and I technically got solo (for now) messages. It's weird yours is a variant of Lotus and Fura's, and it's weird that mine seems to be so strongly unique that...yeah. Yours seems (in a truthful world) to imply coordination, and mine seems to imply very specific targeting. The messages also seems to have reached fewer people than last cycle. It almost seems like they have some kind of successful reads happening which allows more focused dissemination.

-I seem to recall IHAT said Storm may have implied receiving the same message (TwinSoul) but largely through the use of the same word or something like that. Take it as you will.

Quote

Yeah no nvm my brain's not working. But in a two E world, I take it to be indicative one of the co-op messages may be from the Spymaster. I think the Elim coordination problem is non-trivial and I don't think any of the D1 messages we received D2 are going to help Elims get past that and identify counterparts, so they'd almost certainly need the Spymaster to have made a successful scan.

I put this in quotes because I think this is important and I semi-think that this might be a useful perspective slip if anyone can go back and take a look. I think it's easy for Villagers to underestimate the impact of Elim fog-of-war and I'd honestly forgotten about it until I remembered how bad that game with Drake was. This might help wrt reads on some players. I wouldn't use it going forwards since I've said it now, but if there's any assessment that's made, yeah.

Sorry. Think my brain can't do more rn. My last vote was on ACE, there's probably a FAFO world where we just vote Newt to understand what's going on, I kinda get the Storm vote. Or I should anyway because I see some ambivalence in notes. I guess I can just do the thing where I vote and let people sorta just move around my vote. IDK. Working out if ACE vote is still constructive rn tbh since I won't realistically be able to see any developments.

5 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

We will fail together 😔

Slaves to SE

😭 No stop can we just not fail fail should not be an option here.

5 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Also, I really hope you haven't not slept in 644 hours, because if so, you better be lying down right now

No, I'm using the 24 hour clock. But I've been running real short for the last week or so for various reasons, so I guess it's gonna be fun.

Posted

What are people voting me on exactly?

My reaction to STINK's death?

First of all, I'm reacting to a NK of someone not a villager, which is intrinsically weird, since NK's are traditionally elim's domain.

Also, "strangely defensive for starting the train on Ksauce?" people were going to question the village train, it always happens, and I'd prefer not to spend time out of my busy schedule defending it when I state my reasons straight up

ironically tho I've also led both of the trains, both with votes that I meant to change and never got around to it. I had no reason to vote TUH, except by process of elimination.

So when I said it was weird, it was because its incredibly unlikely that an elim would die to a NK, and I said it was slightly unfortunate for the elims (thats important context) that means the elims are at a major disadvantage since the death of a villager does not equal elim.

Anyways, on to actual thoughts not just a rambling defense, message analysis isn't going to get us anywhere. The only beneficial things would be scanning posts for oddly specific words in the vein of durasteel/duralumin, and that seems like too much time for little reward, but if a hyperactive player is up for it, go for it.

I do think grouping and analyzing deaddrops are useful, but only if we have a couple people to verify them. The ones sent to everyone (the duralumin one for example) are worth hyper-analyzing for wording then comparing, but its a short step to elims just copying someones else's style.

Not liking anyone rn except for Kas, Doc, Hoid and Fura, but need to read more before voting

Anyways, should get to school stuff

Posted
3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:
27 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Okay, so we're basically in scenario 2

Yes and no I guess. In the world Fura and Lotus are both villagers (one of your scenarios, or I guess the E/V world), they basically make this claim and slowly disseminate it to try to test for reactions. This does require them to have trusted each other but would be a world in which no message was actually sent (which is what I assumed you were thinking about.) I'm trying to work out what happens in this world, but that's the point my brain stopped cooperating.

My instinct was to treat the messages as real but:

Hmm. Okay let's look at these considerations:

-You and I both got single-appearance messages. (I'm not fully sure an Elim can choose to vary the text of the message when sending it on because to me, the different lists in the message text should count as two messages, otherwise one Elim just texts the entire group, gives them all a different code word, and then calls it a day, which makes hooking up with each other trivial by D3.)

-Moreover, suppose Lotus and Fura are in fact running a test. The big question is, where are the other messages? You and I both got uniques. But a lot of people seem to have received durasteel last night, and sufficient people received the second planets message as well. If Lotus and Fura are lying, does it mean the only two messages are yours and mine? Isn't that still a weird shift that should poke holes in this scenario because Lotus and Fura would've known to expect people claiming extra messages, potentially widely-disseminated like D1 Durasteel and possibly a nonsensical count?) [IDK tbh I'm thinking aloud and maybe not coherently.]

-I just find it very weird that you and I technically got solo (for now) messages. It's weird yours is a variant of Lotus and Fura's, and it's weird that mine seems to be so strongly unique that...yeah. Yours seems (in a truthful world) to imply coordination, and mine seems to imply very specific targeting. The messages also seems to have reached fewer people than last cycle. It almost seems like they have some kind of successful reads happening which allows more focused dissemination.

-I seem to recall IHAT said Storm may have implied receiving the same message (TwinSoul) but largely through the use of the same word or something like that. Take it as you will.

Quote

Yeah no nvm my brain's not working. But in a two E world, I take it to be indicative one of the co-op messages may be from the Spymaster. I think the Elim coordination problem is non-trivial and I don't think any of the D1 messages we received D2 are going to help Elims get past that and identify counterparts, so they'd almost certainly need the Spymaster to have made a successful scan.

I put this in quotes because I think this is important and I semi-think that this might be a useful perspective slip if anyone can go back and take a look. I think it's easy for Villagers to underestimate the impact of Elim fog-of-war and I'd honestly forgotten about it until I remembered how bad that game with Drake was. This might help wrt reads on some players. I wouldn't use it going forwards since I've said it now, but if there's any assessment that's made, yeah.

Sorry. Think my brain can't do more rn. My last vote was on ACE, there's probably a FAFO world where we just vote Newt to understand what's going on, I kinda get the Storm vote. Or I should anyway because I see some ambivalence in notes. I guess I can just do the thing where I vote and let people sorta just move around my vote. IDK. Working out if ACE vote is still constructive rn tbh since I won't realistically be able to see any developments.

Okay wait wait wait

You lost me

Why are we assuming Fura and Lotus are the senders? Or what are we assuming about Lotus and Fura?

As for the messages, I don't remember what the rules are for docs, but I'd assume the two people who sent the messages have established some form of direct contact, whether that be doc or PM - although it'd be interesting if they were coordinating this via Rebel anon messages, meaning they don't actually know who they're working with.

Again, that just sounds so coollllllllll

Very Andor-y

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

😭 No stop can we just not fail fail should not be an option here.

NO

We cannot escape

In replying to my post, you pressure me to reply to yours, and so the cycle continues 😫

Posted

I’m too hungry and barely awake to process all this message business. Hopefully going to have time to do it later. I’m thinking of a possibility that someone’s added a fake message to further confuse everyone, but not sure how viable that is

1 hour ago, IHadAThought said:

Argenti never said anything about the message, I haven’t really talked to him, it’s just that in day2 he referred to the message as the duraluminum one, not the durasteel one, which made me suspect that there might’ve been another message, I haven’t gotten anything from Argenti yet

Ahh okay, that clarifies it then. I misunderstood and thought you two had already talked about it prior.

Also, from the succeeding post, I guess Argenti did receive durasteel also

Posted
12 minutes ago, Divergent said:

I’m too hungry and barely awake to process all this message business. Hopefully going to have time to do it later. I’m thinking of a possibility that someone’s added a fake message to further confuse everyone, but not sure how viable that is

Ahh okay, that clarifies it then. I misunderstood and thought you two had already talked about it prior.

Also, from the succeeding post, I guess Argenti did receive durasteel also

I feel like today has just been me trying to clarify what I’ve said so far, which doesn’t bode well for me

Posted
17 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Why are we assuming Fura and Lotus are the senders? Or what are we assuming about Lotus and Fura?

They claimed to both have received a message. IDR anyone else with that exact claim. Your claim and mine are not corroborated. They corroborate each other.

I'm saying that whether there is an objective, honest to God dead drop message they received is between them and Drake, which honestly terrifies me because Drake. In your reaction test scenarios, they both agree to lie about receiving it (possibly you as a collaborator or someone else running in on it) and there never was an actual message sent. The point of this would be to try to get reactions—hmm.

Ok so that's the rough outline.

I'm trying to remember who paranoided about fake messages or tried to complicate because that could also be an outlier. Recognise I'm just throwing stuff for future me or another villager to read after I'm dead because I really am running on empty now.

Off the top of my head that's you and Doc but technically I'm then the outlier which doesn't help me 😂

Posted (edited)

I am far too lazy to go through all this stuff

can someone summarize?

10 hours ago, Booknewt said:

Yeah, that's fair. Frankly, if I were an Elim giving a reason, I would... not cite a flipped Elim as my reason, so the suspiciousness of that makes me think v!Lotus. Could be deepwolfing, but it's still early for that, and a new player's not likely to do that anyway. So Lotus.

@CoderDrag0n8, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the game.
 

oh what?

Edited by CoderDrag0n8
Posted (edited)

OK, Just finished my job interview! I feel like it went well! Which probably means i bombed xD. Thats usually how it goes for me. Anyways, will go through the thread a little later.

Just want to throw out there, most of today has been pretty quiet followed by a bunch of confusion and a bit of bandwagoning. I just want us all to take a step back and try to think of simple solutions because they're usually correct. Even in a world where elims connected both previous days, there should be at least one more with no clue what's going on, and statistically they probably only connected once so far if at all.

Reported messages:

PM durasteel to Booknewt, Dive, Kas - Lotus/Fura. We checked each other in PMs where there are 4 pieces of info (word + 3 names). They said two which lined up with my info. I said 2 which they said matched theirs. Importantly, the name they said to me was not Booknewt. It is possible that Lotus knew this info because they sent out the message as a rebel or received it as either ISB or a rebel. Same goes for me. Remember receiving messages doesn't clear you. I think a world where we are lying about this, beyond me knowing thats not the case, is highly improbable... although I do love hail marry plays. I've already tried to do 2 this game and neither worked how I wanted. Probably execution error. 

PM durasteel to Booknewt and 2 others i can't remember rn. It is possible this is collaboration or framing. It is also possible that two elims independently thought they could improve on the durasteel message. 

Kas' weird thing - we know that either Kas is creating this (which I dont see a purpose exactly other than confusion... but if you want confusion, just send the message to a village player to cause the confusion OR Kas is being tested by someone who thought they were evil. In this case, I'd look at people who are engaged enough in the game to create whatever this is while also thinking positive things of Kas. Probably doesn't narrow down much but /shrug lol. 

---

I want to point out that it's possible other elims got the messages and aren't coming forwards. But I think fake messages are unlikely today. Yesterday more likely when everyone had a message and they can slip in a message while hiding. I think it's more likely these are real messages as, if I was evil, why cause the chaos yourself when you can make others cause it and then add on top 😉 

The only world where I think there are fake messages is one where Kas believes they may be the only active evil in the game and trying to make stuff up to compensate... but I don't buy that.

Edit:

Evils, I really want to be in a doc... so if you could add me, much appreciated. Pls don't kill me I have so much to live for but Ig that'll still get me a doc so thanks lol

2dit: wooaahhh aperantly my phone browser was in desktop mode. Who would have guessed this forum is so much easier to use/navigate in mobile mode on a phone lol

Edited by Furamirionind
Posted

Okay I tried doing my notepad dump but I don't have time. 

Today's discussion has really been taken over by messages. And I'm part of that. I spent most of the morning in PMs with almost everyone. 

Kas and Fura and I were discussing the messages a LOT. Booknewt, Argenti, Twinstorm, IHAT I had pretty brief exchanges. IHAT lied to my face and got exposed, Twinstorm, Argenti and Booknewt said they got nothing. Worldhopper just said no. CD says he got a PM from IHAT and that's it. Ace has not responded at all. 

And now apparently Hoid Slayer's back even though he told me this morning he wasn't going to be :P so he's obviously a liar and we should kill him. 

 

I think something's going on. I am actually more inclined to trust the two people that could corroborate each other's messages. I actually want to call out either Kas or Hoid Slayer for claiming to have messages that are different and can't be proven. Kas and I were talking about the different styles of messages and theorizing that we had perhaps 3 based on the fact that there have been 3 distinct styles of message, with 2 different elims using the 'durasteel' code word and 1 who was just going 'greetings, i am the isb traitor'. I suppose there's a world where the 2 durasteel elims found each other and are now both sending the same message but with variation. 

Current vote count seems to be 

Twinstorm (2) Argenti, Booknewt

Ace (1) Kas

Honestly, I want to put a vote on either Hoid Slayer, Kasimir, and/or Lotus because at least one of the first two may be lying and Lotus has definitively lied to me. Anyone willing to join me on those?

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...