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QF77: (S)Andor(son) Elimination


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Posted
2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Kas, was you message yesterday in the same style as this?

No. Absurdly utility-centric. (I would say utilitarian but I didn't do grad school to drop that word like this 😔 ) I would argue extremely bare-bones, no fluff, nothing. That's what confused me as it felt different from the ISB Killer, and more importantly, Doc claimed earlier to have received a similar message to mine this cycle (so last cycle was me, this cycle was him.) This excludes the Elim in question from being the ISB Killer if true because we have two messages cotemporously existing.

To anyone whose PMs I didn't answer, sorry, really struggling with energy at the moment, trying to sleep a little and come back with more SAN.

Posted

I didn't manage to make it in yesterday and have enough time to read anything, but I'll try to make it today.

 

First off, I'm somewhat e!leaning Furamirionmind (I need to find out the story behind that name), because of their e-claiming: putting it in thread seems like it could be a cover-up, but could also be trying to "an elim would never say they're an elim" but then it's just IKYK

The dead drops are interesting, mainly because of how well-written they are. Obviously Kas couldn't do it, because he didn't do grad school, but if anyone else wants to come forward with their education level, that'll really help. Like has probably been said, the change in tone from the one by the traitor and the killer is interesting. 1) it could mean that the Spymaster is getting desperate or 2) they're 2 different people (I find this unlikely if there hasn't been a second message from either of them).

I'm going to vote Kas, something just seems off. I've played a few games with him, and it seems like he's been a little bit less aggressive this time. It's mostly vibes, though.

Posted

Okay hi friends big night last night. Full disclosure, Fura PMed me last night and told me their plan to vote Divergent and how they got Kas and Booknewt to agree. At the time, I didn't feel really strongly about either Argenti or Divergent, so when they were still tied I told Fura I was going to stay out of it because I was fine with either of their deaths. 

I have a lot of thoughts so I'm going to try and outline it.

Yesterday's vote:

Interesting thing about last cycle was the Argenti vote, when you actually look at it, was a self-preservation vote from both Twinstorm and Divergent. 

Dead drops

I received 2 messages, one with the freedom flavor text and one that Kas claimed last cycle, which was the very utility-centric message with a key word that i was to say in thread and also dead drop. 

If we are to take into account the distinct 'styles', we have: the star wars flavor text elim who messages everyone, 2 durasteel elims focusing on smaller groups, and the utility-centric elim going one by one. But also the elims could have literally seen us trying to separate people by text styles and just switched it up to mess with us. I do still think it's good to compare what we got and try to guess at strategies they're using, but I think the messages themselves don't lend themselves to concrete analysis

The people I actually wanted to chase last cycle were a combination of Kas, IHAT, and Hoid Slayer. I admit I was wrong about Kas because I got the same message. It seems this elim is going person by person while the other ones are just throwing a wide net. Which didn't explain why Hoid Slayer was the only one that got a different list, but I didn't take into account that any combination of Ace/CD/TOW could have gotten them and simply kept quiet. 

CD

I'm surprised by the CD kill. Given the elims killed STINK and Exp last 2 cycles, the pattern seemed to be on returning players who were more active in thread, so I thought it would be me, Fura, Kas, or Booknewt. Wasn't expecting the kill to hit an almost inactive, nor for CD to turn out to be the Supervisor. Running theory is either CD told someone, or like Fura pointed out at least TOW did catch something, or disconnected elims submitting different people. 

Who I want to question this cycle

@Hoid Slayer, since you're actually sticking around, would you care to give some opinions?

@IHadAThought who are you voting this cycle? Booknewt is giving you slack because you claimed to be taking advice from STINK, sure, and I know you distrust Kas and me, but who would you vote for this cycle?

@Argenti same question to you, we're in day 4, who do you trust? 

For today I am willing to vote (in order of people I do not trust) IHAT, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer and/or Argenti. From the sounds of it, Ace is either going to be replaced or we'll be compensated so I'm not looking in that direction. 

Posted

I’m not sure how I’m going to vote. Not Fura, since was right about divergent, and not kas or booknewt. I don’t currently have any leads, so I think I’ll go with Ace for now, since I haven’t seen him at all. I’ll probably change this if I learn anything new, but for now it works for me 

Posted

AAAAAHHHHH the temptation to analyze is so strong

I'll see what I can do, but I am NOT rereading everything I missed

And I'm NOT going to be making a long post, so I am somewhat inclined against voting but we'll see how the afternoon develops

23 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

@Hoid Slayer, since you're actually sticking around, would you care to give some opinions?

So I'll give you a tentative maybe on this

There are things I'd like to say but I gotta go right now

Posted
38 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Okay hi friends big night last night. Full disclosure, Fura PMed me last night and told me their plan to vote Divergent and how they got Kas and Booknewt to agree. At the time, I didn't feel really strongly about either Argenti or Divergent, so when they were still tied I told Fura I was going to stay out of it because I was fine with either of their deaths. 

I have a lot of thoughts so I'm going to try and outline it.

Yesterday's vote:

Interesting thing about last cycle was the Argenti vote, when you actually look at it, was a self-preservation vote from both Twinstorm and Divergent. 

Dead drops

I received 2 messages, one with the freedom flavor text and one that Kas claimed last cycle, which was the very utility-centric message with a key word that i was to say in thread and also dead drop. 

If we are to take into account the distinct 'styles', we have: the star wars flavor text elim who messages everyone, 2 durasteel elims focusing on smaller groups, and the utility-centric elim going one by one. But also the elims could have literally seen us trying to separate people by text styles and just switched it up to mess with us. I do still think it's good to compare what we got and try to guess at strategies they're using, but I think the messages themselves don't lend themselves to concrete analysis

The people I actually wanted to chase last cycle were a combination of Kas, IHAT, and Hoid Slayer. I admit I was wrong about Kas because I got the same message. It seems this elim is going person by person while the other ones are just throwing a wide net. Which didn't explain why Hoid Slayer was the only one that got a different list, but I didn't take into account that any combination of Ace/CD/TOW could have gotten them and simply kept quiet. 

CD

I'm surprised by the CD kill. Given the elims killed STINK and Exp last 2 cycles, the pattern seemed to be on returning players who were more active in thread, so I thought it would be me, Fura, Kas, or Booknewt. Wasn't expecting the kill to hit an almost inactive, nor for CD to turn out to be the Supervisor. Running theory is either CD told someone, or like Fura pointed out at least TOW did catch something, or disconnected elims submitting different people. 

Who I want to question this cycle

@Hoid Slayer, since you're actually sticking around, would you care to give some opinions?

@IHadAThought who are you voting this cycle? Booknewt is giving you slack because you claimed to be taking advice from STINK, sure, and I know you distrust Kas and me, but who would you vote for this cycle?

@Argenti same question to you, we're in day 4, who do you trust? 

For today I am willing to vote (in order of people I do not trust) IHAT, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer and/or Argenti. From the sounds of it, Ace is either going to be replaced or we'll be compensated so I'm not looking in that direction. 

Did you two check to see if you got the same keyword? That might be important.

Posted

Alr, I'm really sorry, but I won't be able to do too much analysis for at least 2 hours bc I have a ton of hw to get through. I'll be back by around 11 EST.

Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, IHadAThought said:

I’m not sure how I’m going to vote. Not Fura, since was right about divergent, and not kas or booknewt. I don’t currently have any leads, so I think I’ll go with Ace for now, since I haven’t seen him at all. I’ll probably change this if I learn anything new, but for now it works for me 

Ace might be getting replaced.

Edited by ThatOneWorldhopper
Posted
1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

@Argenti same question to you, we're in day 4, who do you trust? 

 

I feel like you've been inernest- still don't trust Twinstorm.

Beyond that... no Idea

 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Argenti said:

I feel like you've been inernest- still don't trust Twinstorm.

Beyond that... no Idea

 

Are you trying to say “earnest” or “unearnest”?

Posted
17 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Are you trying to say “earnest” or “unearnest”?

earnest- unearnest isn't a word.

But then again neither is inernest.

 

Posted
21 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Hiya

It’s your friendly neighborhood observer state popping in quickly

First

Is Divergent a newbie? Cause if so I’d feel bad exeing him after just three days.

Food for thought.

Actually, don’t think I’m gonna get replaced

Today’s been fun

I’d say don’t expect these activity levels from me to be consistent, but hey, you never know

Edit:

’Night Kas!

Go get that sleep you desperately need!

Hoid Slayer.

Posted
22 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

Hoid Slayer.

Woah there buddy

Ya really gonna make me vote in self-defense?

If I’m gonna mount the gallows, though, I’d like to know the reasoning why

Does anyone have a VC?

Posted (edited)

General Thoughts on remaining players. 

TwinStorm - Rebel
Is online regularly so not just inactive. I've been getting a general elim vibe from a few of their posts. Was defensive about voting on village then defensive about being defensive later (sorry no good way out of that one lol). Yesterday implied them dying would end the game and voted in self preservation. Having all of Doc, Kas, and me in your village reads seems off to me as well. Possibly just saying we are village because we are/were some of the loudest people. Hoid was in V!reads as well and idk why as that's never elaborated on. In a post where 60% of it was defending themselves, they went on to say they were going to do analysis. That analysis was saying analyzing posts won't help us and someone more active should analyze dead drops. I just don't think anything I'm seeing makes me feel like there's a village mindset here.

Doc12 - Lean ISB
Posts broadly pushing for more info in thread and has been doing a lot of work in PMs. Also best fits my expectations for the author behind the "friendly" ISB traitor. I'll be honest I also enjoy our PMs. Didn't seem to warn Dive. Will elaborate under Booknewt.

Booknewt - ISB
1. Ok, so I might have flubbed it really bad, but D3 I claimed evil to them. I did this because my message told me to say durasteel if I was a rebel to Booknewt, Kas, and Dive as one of them is a Rebel. I felt like I directly implied I was evil at one point and Booknewt took it as me claiming they were evil. If this was a traditional game where the evil team knows who each other are, I might be sus of this. However, I believe all evil players will be looking for signs of other ones as they can't afford to kill too many of themselves off. If Book was evil I think they would have caught my claim. Especially as there was a claim from Hoid that they got a message saying one of Booknewt, Fura, Ace was evil... but obviously I know I'm not evil, Ace doesn't make sense at all to include as they wouldn't have sent it, being inactive and how would another rebel find them out to be evil if they are inactive (short of rebel spy but why would they pick someone inactive?). That only leaves Booknewt. If book was evil and in on this, they should not have been caught off guard by me claiming evil. Unless I really messed up my claim and was super confusing : / 
2. I told them about Dive last night and asked them for help with votes which they did. I fully explained why I thought Dive was evil (heavily implied evil in PMs) and they could have gone and checked in with Dive in a bunch of different ways to warn or see if they were evil. Seeing that Dive flipped Tech and having received a tech charge last night, I believe Dive was not warned of what I was doing and I believe I have his charge. This means None of the people I told last night (Doc, Booknewt, Kas) seemingly told Dive anything about me.
3. Posts have had good analysis. There is some sus stuff in there... but most of is is slightly sus in an early game with no info. Reads yesterday and today are worth far more than reads D1-2 imo. 

Argenti - Rebel
I feel like there's an attempt to almost actively avoid giving analysis. They seem to be online a lot and have posted far more times than I thought they had. But the reason is, most posts are a sentence or two and not contributing beyond a vote. They mentioned they are acting based on vibes, and that is totally fine, but every post where anyone asks them to have thoughts about the game Argenti abdicates all responsibility for anything happening in the game saying they don't understand. I've played with many players who don't understand and have been one before. In my experience those players are usually semi-active or asking questions. Neither of which fits here. The only person they've apparently been suspicious of this game is TwinStorm. Here is their vote history: D1 - No Vote, D2 - TwinStorm, D3 - TwinStorm. Both times they were the only vote on TwinStorm.

ThatOneWorldhopper - Neutral
D2 posts look pretty fine ig. The only person we know had the connection between Coder-KSOHS but also as it was public definitely not a black mark on TOW. Going through posts it looks like in a PM with Hoid Slayer I thought one of TOW's posts was actually Hoid's so whoops xD
Ninja'd by TOW and... Argenti doing the same thing again.
D4 I don't think there's much to go on. Votes make sense for reasons given though, as I believe Dive sent me their tech, I believe Dive didn't know of any other evils which means Hoid Slayer who hard defended Dive several times in different ways may have been doing so by coincidence.

Hoid Slayer - Slight Rebel... idk... There's reasons to say rebel but also reasons not to kill today I think.
As mentioned in bold above, Hoid Slayer worked hard to protect Dive HOWEVER, who sent me the tech if not Dive? If Hoid Slayer and Dive knew each other were evil, why not send it to the safer option? Secondly, Hoid critically did not vote yesterday. The train on Argenti was there for a long time and Hoid could have just thrown a vote there and they would have avoided Dive being in any apparent risk. If Hoid is a rebel and didn't know Dive was evil, why defend so hard? 
Hoid was acting very strange in PMs claiming I was evil but only because he saw me how he sees everyone and when I asked to role swap told me they would consider if I  claimed publicly? Which makes no logical sense to me why they would specifically ask me to do that. There was some other weird stuff I won't share in thread.
Lastly, Hoid using the phrase, "Friendly Neighborhood Observer" doesn't mean they are the Friendly Neighborhood ISB Traitor, however, it is curious. Could be an attempted signal to others though I'm not sold on that. 

ACE - Inactive

IHadAThought - Slight Rebel

Kasimir - ISB

Edit: Dang it wasn't done. can someone post under me pls? lol

Edited by Furamirionind
Posted
2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Argenti - Rebel
I feel like there's an attempt to almost actively avoid giving analysis. They seem to be online a lot and have posted far more times than I thought they had. But the reason is, most posts are a sentence or two and not contributing beyond a vote. They mentioned they are acting based on vibes, and that is totally fine, but every post where anyone asks them to have thoughts about the game Argenti abdicates all responsibility for anything happening in the game saying they don't understand. I've played with many players who don't understand and have been one before. In my experience those players are usually semi-active or asking questions. Neither of which fits here. The only person they've apparently been suspicious of this game is TwinStorm. Here is their vote history: D1 - No Vote, D2 - TwinStorm, D3 - TwinStorm. Both times they were the only vote on TwinStorm.

Spoiler

It's actually because I don't have the brainpower for this, and I leave the shard open in the background.

 

Posted

Continued: (I like using "shift-enter" for formatting but this is the second time this game I hit "control-enter" instead : /

IHadAThought - Slight Rebel
Frankly don't have a ton of thoughts on them. Mostly asking questions and participating in thread doing a good job keeping conversation moving. Does tend to get defensive both reactively and, more importantly to me, proactively. Proactive defensiveness is a big red flag to me and that happened D3 with all the confusion going on Lotus seemed to think they were going to be voted on/targeted when no one really was... Other than Doc kinda.

Kasimir - ISB
Again, didn't reach out to Dive and absolutely didn't have to support the execution on them for a variety of reasons. Been a major source of info in thread and PMs, has been doing a ton of analysis and work... so much so that I frankly wouldn't even consider Kas being evil until tomorrow. Not necessarily because he can't be but he is putting so much into this game that I don't think he's evil but if he is I'd rather go after others first in case we are wrong if that makes sense. 
Kas, get some sleep take today off xD

After all of this, I think the best vote is Argenti. It's worth mentioning that all in all, I have 4 living sus reads totaling 6 rebels. I think if this was the actual team, it would make sense to make it 6 as, as far as I can tell, Argenti, Lotus, and Dive are all new players making half the rebel team new in a game where they don't know each other. It's a bit tough... But I'm probably not 100% right that would be wild.

Anyways Argenti

Posted (edited)

Ugh, VC

I think looking at people who have been 'active' but not that active, I see that Argenti, Twinstorm, and IHAT. Booknewt should also technically be in that category, but she's still doing more than the other three. I think I'm willing to go Argenti IHAT. 

I do still think there's an elim in between Worldhopper and Hoid Slayer, purely from the 'inactive but recently returned' pool, so I'm perfectly fine with either Hoid Slayer or Argenti getting exed. 

IHAT (1) Doc

Ace (1) Kas

Argenti (2) Fura, Doc

Hoid Slayer (2) IHAT, TOW

Twinstorm (1) Argenti

Edited by Doc12
Posted (edited)

What I want to know is why people are voting good slayer. I vote him because I didn’t know what else to do today, why is everyone hopping on the train for that, as far as I know, there aren’t a lot of reasons for that.

edit: Hoid slayer. Autocorrect is my nightmare right now

Edited by IHadAThought
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

Argenti

have to save myself, sorry man

Just like the last vote... the rebel always saves himself.... 

You'll see guys! 

Edit:

In fact- twinstorm isn't even in any danger right now.

Edited by Argenti
Posted
3 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

Argenti

have to save myself, sorry man

Twin, you don’t even have two votes. This isn’t even self preservation. 
Everyone’s votes make no sense right now

Posted
2 minutes ago, IHadAThought said:

Twin, you don’t even have two votes. This isn’t even self preservation. 
Everyone’s votes make no sense right now

Twinstorm is just voting for me because I'm onto him, I swear. He's in absolutely no danger.

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