deep substrate foliated kalkite QF77: (S)Andor(son) Elimination

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Re: ACE leaving: Aeternum has agreed to step in as substitute!

please welcome Aeternum to the game 

[Kasimir he/him]

Okay, I had sleep, time to catch-up with whatever went down while I was recharging.

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum Fura

Had a bad feeling about Fura since that was the obvious shot after Fura scammed Dive but hoped there would be a successful intercept. Guessing not. Unsure if Fura dropped his scan claims in the thread. If he didn't, I'll share it later after catching up.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Re: ACE leaving: Aeternum has agreed to step in as substitute!

please welcome Aeternum to the game 

oh hi Aet

unless he evil then  

Edited to add:

From backread land:

I'm ok with keeping the V!read on BookNewt. I think this kind of 180 on Fura feels natural and comes from a Village paranoia mindset. I don't think an Elim tries to do it here because that's very obvious push-back incoming. There's a world in which Newt is screwy enough as an Elim but I don't know enough about Newt and don't have the inclination to backread Newt's games as that's more effort than I wanna put in, so someone lmk if I'm getting Newt's E!range wrong.

Edited to add 2:

wtf was that EoD/late day screw me imma need more caffeine to deal with it

Edited to add 3:

@Hoid Slayer - Given your medic claim, I presume you didn't make an intercept on Fura? Why/not?

Edited to add 4:

Can someone explain to me the Argenti v Hoid counter-accusations here? Like how did we go from that to IHAT? I'm trying to make sense of the thread.

Edited October 29, 2025 by Kasimir

[Argenti he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Can someone explain to me the Argenti v Hoid counter-accusations here? Like how did we go from that to IHAT? I'm trying to make sense of the thread.

Honestly I have no idea. I expected to die.

Anyone else get a message?

[TwinStorm He/Him]

45 minutes ago, Argenti said:

Honestly I have no idea. I expected to die.

Anyone else get a message?

yeah I got that said good luck you'll need it or smth like that

what I confused by is why we killed IHAT exactly? I went to bed too early and didn't understand what happened

[Kasimir he/him]

8 players left. Probably 2-3 Elims, I'm refusing to entertain a 4 Elim world because that's just grim.

From Fura (if it's in thread already I apologise, checking across things is rough and I haven't been locked in this game) :

Quote

-Doc used an action D3
-Dive suggested that Fura should use surveillance on Doc, Newt, or maybe Argenti. Unclear if Dive was talking from a pretend-Villager or Elim mindset; Fura leans the former, and I'm slightly required to trust his judgement as I have no sight of the PM.
-Lotus/IHAT claimed to Fura to have RBed me D2 (I took no action anyway so that didn't really do anything.)
-Hoid submitted no action D4.

I did receive a message but it's a very stylistic one which makes me think it's from the Elim who sent the messages D1 and D3. It is definitely possible one of our durasteel guys might be it, but yeah.

Let's see if this pulls anything.

Day One:

Quote

KSauce (3) - Experience, TwinStorm, Divergent
STINK (3) - KSauce, Doc12, ThatOneWorldHopper
Experience (1) - Kasimir
TwinStorm (1) - IHadAThought
Not Voting (X): Argenti, STINK, Coder, ACE, Fura, BookNewt, Hoid, TUH

Doc is probably Village (?) but I don't wanna do it too strongly in my credences. Interesting that Dive is voting for the Villager and saving the Elim despite no connection. Am curious if STINK and Dive managed to make contact. Need to look at Storm's KSauce vote. Side-trains look clean from my POV so it's either main train or didn't vote at all where the Elims were concerned. 

STINK didn't self-pres. I guess timezones.

Day Two:

Quote

TUH (5) - Booknewt, TOW, Kas, Divergent, TwinStorm
Argenti (2) - Fura, Doc12
IHAT (1) - Coder
Fura (1) - Experience
TwinStorm (1) - Argenti
Doc12 (1) - IHAT
Not Voting (X): TUH, ACE, Hoid

I'm curious about Storm going onto TUH in light of train volume. Need to look at EoD of D2 again as I remember people saying something about train size.

Day Three:

Quote

Divergent (3) - Kas, Booknewt, Fura
Argenti (2) - TwinStorm, Divergent
Kas (1) - IHAT
TwinStorm (1) - Argenti
Not Voting (X) - TOW, Coder, Hoid, Doc, ACE

This is the day Fura scams Dive, and also the same cycle that I receive the specific recruitment message while Fura and BookNewt receive a cross-validated message, and Hoid claims one as well. This might therefore be the cycle we expect to see some Elim cooperation in.

Dive pushing Argenti over Storm is an interesting choice. Both because we believe that Dive has met a fellow Elim by this point (messages) and Dive choosing to CW onto Argenti instead. It is certainly true that by then, Fura is on Argenti, so Dive is sort of drawn there, but I'm curious why Dive didn't try to solicit another target since he was in comms with Fura and didn't want to do a LHF train.

Storm for the moment.

I feel there might be a light apathy clear for TOW, Coder, Hoid, or Doc, but IDK I want to push that too strongly because better men than me have died to dingo bites

@Doc12 - Question for you. You claimed to have targeted me D3. You were also advocating for flipping me and Hoid D3 - what's the thought process there? Second question: you mentioned abstaining from voting because you didn't care which of Dive or Argenti died. In that light, before Fura hammered, it was Argenti-Dive 3:2. You mentioned loving ties before and ties are randed here: is there a reason you didn't want to vote and create a tie here?

And then:

Day Four:

Quote

IHAT (3) - Doc12, Fura, Booknewt
TwinStorm (2) - IHAT, Argenti
Argenti (1) - TwinStorm
Hoid Slayer (1) - TOW
ACE (1) - Kas
Not Voting (X): ACE, Hoid

Cross-voting from Storm and Argenti, with Hoid in the mix. Ngl I don't really know how I feel about it, it's... I feel like the way it fell into retaliatory voting is noteworthy, I just don't know what sense to make of it.

In an E!Storm world, I'd low key wonder if an IHAT voter is E. There's just a lot of scatter/chaff here where the voting is concerned, but the fact it seemed to heat up a bit with Storm v Argenti v Hoid makes me feel like there's something about that triple threat match worth paying attention to

Edited to add:

@Hoid Slayer, @Argenti, @TwinStorm I'm gonna need your reads on each other and your take of how last cycle went down, thank you. Help me out here because it's just confusing me  

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

8 players left. Probably 2-3 Elims, I'm refusing to entertain a 4 Elim world because that's just grim.

From Fura (if it's in thread already I apologise, checking across things is rough and I haven't been locked in this game) :

I did receive a message but it's a very stylistic one which makes me think it's from the Elim who sent the messages D1 and D3. It is definitely possible one of our durasteel guys might be it, but yeah.

Let's see if this pulls anything.

Day One:

Doc is probably Village (?) but I don't wanna do it too strongly in my credences. Interesting that Dive is voting for the Villager and saving the Elim despite no connection. Am curious if STINK and Dive managed to make contact. Need to look at Storm's KSauce vote. Side-trains look clean from my POV so it's either main train or didn't vote at all where the Elims were concerned. 

STINK didn't self-pres. I guess timezones.

Day Two:

I'm curious about Storm going onto TUH in light of train volume. Need to look at EoD of D2 again as I remember people saying something about train size.

Day Three:

This is the day Fura scams Dive, and also the same cycle that I receive the specific recruitment message while Fura and BookNewt receive a cross-validated message, and Hoid claims one as well. This might therefore be the cycle we expect to see some Elim cooperation in.

Dive pushing Argenti over Storm is an interesting choice. Both because we believe that Dive has met a fellow Elim by this point (messages) and Dive choosing to CW onto Argenti instead. It is certainly true that by then, Fura is on Argenti, so Dive is sort of drawn there, but I'm curious why Dive didn't try to solicit another target since he was in comms with Fura and didn't want to do a LHF train.

Storm for the moment.

I feel there might be a light apathy clear for TOW, Coder, Hoid, or Doc, but IDK I want to push that too strongly because better men than me have died to dingo bites

@Doc12 - Question for you. You claimed to have targeted me D3. You were also advocating for flipping me and Hoid D3 - what's the thought process there? Second question: you mentioned abstaining from voting because you didn't care which of Dive or Argenti died. In that light, before Fura hammered, it was Argenti-Dive 3:2. You mentioned loving ties before and ties are randed here: is there a reason you didn't want to vote and create a tie here?

And then:

Day Four:

Cross-voting from Storm and Argenti, with Hoid in the mix. Ngl I don't really know how I feel about it, it's... I feel like the way it fell into retaliatory voting is noteworthy, I just don't know what sense to make of it.

In an E!Storm world, I'd low key wonder if an IHAT voter is E. There's just a lot of scatter/chaff here where the voting is concerned, but the fact it seemed to heat up a bit with Storm v Argenti v Hoid makes me feel like there's something about that triple threat match worth paying attention to

Edited to add:

@Hoid Slayer, @Argenti, @TwinStorm I'm gonna need your reads on each other and your take of how last cycle went down, thank you. Help me out here because it's just confusing me  

I’d love to, Kas, but my school bus is literally rolling into the school right now

For what it’s worth, I too received a dead drop, and didn’t save Fura cause I was busy saving my own skin

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

12 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

yeah I got that said good luck you'll need it or smth like that

what I confused by is why we killed IHAT exactly? I went to bed too early and didn't understand what happened

I think the elims are all in the doc.

We killed IHAT mostly based on vibes.

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add 2:

There's a class of Elim which does this and I've been gone enough IDK if that's TOW or not, but I think:

I have an impulse to V!lean this because I think it's just kayana that TOW is trying to push an E!Fura agenda here and I don't think that's the sort of thing an Elim (particularly a lone one) thinks to do (unsure how much composure E!TOW has, someone feel free to chime in if you've seen that before.)

In fact, he pushes both me (fair) and Fura, and Fura is in particular kayana but pushing me after I pushed back on Doc for the "someone is lying about messages" take is a pretty baller mindset so I'm gonna take it to come from a more Villagery perspective for now.

So:

Probably Village: BookNewt, TOW
Can be Village for now: Doc
Interesting apathy: ACE*

*With ACE my thought is just that this guy has been there so theoretically you'd expect him to self-pres/save Dive if he really needed to but he's not doing anything and asked for a replacement. I don't think that's very 'overwhelmed Elim' profile-ish so IDK there. I've just been burned by apathy clears before.

So back to the Triumverate of Terror ig: <Hoid, Argenti, Storm.>

I'll be honest that some of Storm's early reads make me feel a bit  but I need to see the timing of them. By this point in the game the Spymaster probably has some Village scans due to misfires so I'd expect them to have a bit more TMI behind their reads.

Hoid's apathy is interesting, as are the observations about friendly neighbourhood Observer State. There's some thoughts about bussing v. apathy here where Doc and Hoid are concerned IMO since Hoid could technically get V!credit but there's a world he's savvy enough to hardcommit. Doc and Hoid overdoing fog-of-war lives rent-free in my head, and that's something I'm slightly concerned about, but we're back to the bit where IDK Dive gives Fura tech just for Doc to earn Village cred, maybe but that's not necessarily a loose end you think about under time pressure. Maybe.

I need more Argenti reads.

Edited to add 3:

43 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I’d love to, Kas, but my school bus is literally rolling into the school right now

For what it’s worth, I too received a dead drop, and didn’t save Fura cause I was busy saving my own skin

I'd like something brief, doesn't have to be well-researched or anything, since you lived through it, at least what was in your head that sorta thing. Looking at your EoD - doesn't have to be right now as I'll be on tomorrow before EoD this time since I got stuff in that timing so I'm guaranteed some cycle time and less sleep-deprived than before.

I mean, isn't saving yourself and Fura two separate things? Sending in a protect =/= trying to save yourself in the thread, and as far as I can see it didn't go anywhere because you legit just said "don't make me vote" and then things moved on.

Edited October 29, 2025 by Kasimir
justification

[Argenti he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Hoid's apathy is interesting, as are the observations about friendly neighbourhood Observer State. There's some thoughts about bussing v. apathy here where Doc and Hoid are concerned IMO since Hoid could technically get V!credit but there's a world he's savvy enough to hardcommit. Doc and Hoid overdoing fog-of-war lives rent-free in my head, and that's something I'm slightly concerned about, but we're back to the bit where IDK Dive gives Fura tech just for Doc to earn Village cred, maybe but that's not necessarily a loose end you think about under time pressure. Maybe.

 

For me personally, I doubt that Hoid is a rebel. I do get the grind, and this is the time of year that is horrifying for the youngsters. He seems earnestly locked out, I would expect a rebel to at least vote.

[Ookla the Newt she/her]

2 hours ago, TwinStorm said:

yeah I got that said good luck you'll need it or smth like that

Yeah I got the same message. Also, turns out that I accidentally lied yesterday about not getting dead drops bc somehow Drake's message with the messages got marked as cleared. Is there some way to turn off the "clear all incoming messages when one is opened" feature?

The contents of today's dead drop:
Just a "good luck you'll need it." Might be a response to a similar message to the one I recieved yesterday given the emphasis on the first sentence (see below). Planet guy's gone, so that was probably Divergent. No help there.

The contents of yesterday's dead drop:
A threat to send me to Mustafar and a "send a dead drop to all players starting with Ladies and Gentlemen". Not overly helpful.

If TwinStorm ends up being elim I will be kicking myself bc yesterday at like 12:58 I almost swapped my vote to TwinStorm bc IHAT wasn't seeming like an elim. (if i were to send a last minute rp as an elim I sure wouldn't be doing a "it was time to get fired", that is a purely village move)

Although does anyone know what the details about what he did with his role were? Bc he said he would send them but never did. I think he arrested Kas, and said it didn't change anything, but that's a guess from what he said in an rp. 

Sry about voting you IHAT, and rip Fura.

I'm wondering why Argenti and TwinStorm seem so opposed to each other - Argenti's constantly voted TwinStorm and now TwinStorm's voting Argenti as well. I honestly can't see a world where both of them are elim. So these are my current elim candidates: Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE (well Aeturnum now ig), Worldhopper, HoidSlayer. Doc or Kas may be in there, but I'm considering those five for now bc I have a fairly consistent village read on Doc and Kas and my deepwolf world aged real well yesterday. If all five are elim, we're losing. If four are elim, this'll be !!!FUN!!! (translation: this'll be incredibly dicey and will suck). So I'll go over my possible three elim teams bc I don't want to think about four or five elim worlds. 

All possible teams out of my primary suspects (this took forever to write out): [Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [Argenti, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [ACE, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer]. Someone lemme know if I missed anything, I hate combinatorics.

We can rule out the following for now. [Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [Argenti, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [ACE, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer]. bc Argenti and TwinStorm are far too opposed to be on the same team. 

TwinStorm called out IHAT, Argenti, and Hoid Slayer in his post. This further rules out the "Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer" world bc while he might call out one teammate, he wouldn't call out two. I'm going to put all worlds where he's on the same team as Hoid Slayer in yellow bc those are unlikely at least, although not impossible.
[Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [Argenti, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [ACE, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer]

Dive was "less suspicious" of TwinStorm D3, when he had likely linked up with someone, so that indicates TwinStorm slightly, want to think about that more in my analysis though. Argenti is defending Hoid Slayer, so going to put the worlds where those two are on the same team in green. This is the point against TwinStorm being an elim - Argenti and TwinStorm not on same team, TwinStorm against Argenti and Hoid Slayer, Argenti supporting Hoid Slayer. 

[Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [Argenti, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [ACE, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer]

Worldhopper voted Hoid Slayer, the only one to do so. Either they knew it wouldn't gain any traction, or wanted to make themselves less suspicious.

If anyone has any ideas on how to eliminate any of these worlds, or any info that could eliminate some, pls let me know.

As it stands:
Argenti - 3 worlds, 2 with support shown, 3 more vy unlikely.
ACE - 5 worlds, 1 likely, 1 unlikely. 1 more vy unlikely.
Worldhopper - 5 worlds, 1 likely, 1 unlikely, 1 more vy unlikely.
Hoid Slayer - 5 worlds, 2 unlikely, 2 likely, 1 more vy unlikely
TwinStorm - 3 worlds, 2 unlikely, 3 more vy unlikely. 

I need some way to eliminate ACE, Worldhopper, or Hoid Slayer. Fura got no action from Hoid Slayer D3/D4, and Hoid was active then, so would've submitted a vote. That makes me lean towards non-Hoid worlds for now, so [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper]. (with [Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE] and [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper] as unlikely) That doesn't rly help with the Argenti vs TwinStorm mess, but does indicate ACE and Worldhopper somewhat. 

@Argenti @TwinStorm@ThatOneWorldhopper@Aeternum, I'd be interested to hear your reads on things

[-ACE- he/him]

20 hours ago, Booknewt said:

Hey @-ACE- I was wondering what you're thinking about the game so far, because I haven't seen your thoughts pretty much anywhere, and I'd be interested to get your input

Hey, sorry. My home computer broke, and I can't do much at school. I think I'm gonna withdraw from he game? is that okay?

[Ookla the Newt she/her]

Yeah, that's fine. Sorry about the ping.

[Kasimir he/him]

38 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

Argenti is defending Hoid Slayer,

I think my main question with this is: how does a guy go from retaliatory voting and vibes last cycle to what actually reads like a more solid V!read on Hoid? Because something I'm thinking about is - is Argenti overcredencing? And if he is, does that come from Spymaster TMI? (I acknowledge there are Head Honcho worlds - I really cannot control for those and it's going to be a possibility we have to work around regardless, and it's Argenti's (if HH) most sacred duty to deny this regardless.)

(Also, was this there last cycle? Note to self: look back.)

1 hour ago, Argenti said:

For me personally, I doubt that Hoid is a rebel. I do get the grind, and this is the time of year that is horrifying for the youngsters. He seems earnestly locked out, I would expect a rebel to at least vote.

I don't disagree with apathy reasoning but the first part is technically NAI since he would be busy regardless of his alignment, and I agree on the latter but note apathy clears have failed in the past (Dingo/Ashbringer being a prominent case - basically if you really are too busy/sick, then you simply can't vote despite/regardless of urgency.) I'm asterisking the apathy clear partly because I think Hoid is just a good enough player I think he knows to commit through it. Functionally if he's earnestly locked out, then I question the motivation to stay alive, i.e. his "don't make me vote you" from last cycle. Those don't often really come together. If I'm overwhelmed (and I was for the last few cycles), then my mentality is "ok if you flip me, you flip me (because I CBA to defend too much), here's where I think we should go next." Hoid is suggesting he'll come off the bench if there's a threat to his life. I appreciate he's here while he is, but that's a bit ?

For this reason I wanna ask if the bolded expresses more certainty than we usually see, especially given the basis.

FWIW Argenti, do you have views on Storm? TOW?

Edited to add:

44 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

I'm wondering why Argenti and TwinStorm seem so opposed to each other - Argenti's constantly voted TwinStorm and now TwinStorm's voting Argenti as well. I honestly can't see a world where both of them are elim.

  Normally when you say something like this, I expect distancing, because that's what happens with mutually-valenced aggression. There can be worlds where it's V/V, but context will probably help distinguish between both worlds. I'll look at the votes in a bit as I've something due, but if I don't get to it in time, I need someone to help me check/establish what happens to Argenti and TwinStorm voting on each other when each other is endangered. Are they switching off, is there a push for an in-thread alternative?

46 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

TwinStorm called out IHAT, Argenti, and Hoid Slayer in his post. This further rules out the "Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer" world bc while he might call out one teammate, he wouldn't call out two.

This is a fair point/catch but I'd wanna see if Storm is committed. If he aggros one but doesn't the other, that's also interesting because like how do I put it. If I spend at least a cycle sussing you and Doc but only vote on you, then that's a kind of preference and we wanna know why I'm going easy on Doc but not on you.

Otherwise I'd kind of agree he's unlikely to call out both. There might be a world distancing really works here because suppose he aggressively distances from the Spymaster, who gets exed, and then Twin becomes the Spymaster. In that world we would just think that's not happening and we mightn't look for succession there.

The main reason I go back to interest that they are aggroing each other is that Elims tend to mutually distance. It is I would argue less common to see Elim #1 distance from Elim #2 but not have #2 push back: the idea is to create the perception they're at odds.

51 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

Although does anyone know what the details about what he did with his role were? Bc he said he would send them but never did. I think he arrested Kas, and said it didn't change anything, but that's a guess from what he said in an rp. 

Yeah I just stated it in-thread earlier. Lotus claimed to Fura who claimed to me that he RBed me D2. I didn't do anything that Day since I only got a single-shot so nothing came out of it.

[Argenti he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I think my main question with this is: how does a guy go from retaliatory voting and vibes last cycle to what actually reads like a more solid V!read on Hoid? Because something I'm thinking about is - is Argenti overcredencing? And if he is, does that come from Spymaster TMI? (I acknowledge there are Head Honcho worlds - I really cannot control for those and it's going to be a possibility we have to work around regardless, and it's Argenti's (if HH) most sacred duty to deny this regardless.)

 

Mostly cause y'all pinged me so much. 

I'm trying to pay more attention, and give some reasoning to the vibes. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

FWIW Argenti, do you have views on Storm? TOW?

 

Storm has bad vibes- as I've said. You could use the same "Mostly inactive but always watching" thing for twinstorm- he hasn't done much analysis since day 2 or so, and what has been done was defensive. Coincidentally, day 2 is when I started harping on him.  He could be trying to avoid attention, because how analysis can often reveal the machinations of your own mind- and it's hard to lie convincingly about that.

TOW has been inactive too, but in a different way that Hoid. I know TOW posts rather infrequently, and I don't think I've seen him analyze much, not even in the way of  mine or Hoid Slayer's half hearted attempts.

EDIT:

Also, does overcredencing mean something specific in SE?

Edited October 29, 2025 by Argenti

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Argenti said:

Also, does overcredencing mean something specific in SE?

I'm using the term from epistemology, so it doesn't really mean something in SE, I'm using it as shorthand to refer to a player seeming to have stronger credences in a particular belief/proposition than they probably should. It can just be that they're that way, but sudden increases...I sometimes gotta ask if that's TMI.

3 minutes ago, Argenti said:

I'm trying to pay more attention, and give some reasoning to the vibes. 

Fair but also, lol RIP

[Aeternum]

16 player game means probably 3-4 elims, I skimmed the setup a little too much to determine if it's more likely one way or the other. So likely 1-2 elims left. 6 v 2, 7 v 1, or I suppose some off chance of 5 v 3.

TwinStorm/Argenti is probably not a pair, based on late day 4 (this specifically, and also the votecount) (and from day 3 this is probably never a pair).

Booknewt was towny day 4 and day 3 (I'm reading the game backwards rn). Also doesn't give bussing vibes day 3 so I'm comfortable with her being town.

Hoid Slayer seems to like avoiding thread and giving excuses for a lack of analysis, which I've noticed both across all of day 4, today, day 3, and the couple posts I read from day 2. Pretty different from what I remember of Hoid Slayer in previous games. The amount of excuses is very elim-coded lol. Hoid Slayer spends a lot of time on day 3 spending posts on questions that don't seem to lead anywhere. Also this is pretty bad.

Unless Kas/Argenti are paired, d3 e!Kas could've avoided bussing Divergent by voting Argenti (or really anyone). This might not make sense because of lost wolf stuff but eh I'm just going to ignore it because mech is my downfall. Points in favor of Kas.

Not sure if I'm going to read into Divergent's self-pres on Argenti. Didn't get a solid read on ToW or Doc while reading overall thread, aka they didn't stand out in any way.

Probably looking at Hoid Slayer + [ (TwinStorm/Argenti), ToW, Doc ] right now. I think I'm going to throw Kas and Booknewt into the not worrying about right now group. Kas looked fine on a skim, I got the impression he's disconnected from several people, and Booknewt is just towny. Wary about writing off Kas too soon, but even in worst case worlds, we should have space to do so today. Unless there's kp I'm unaware of.

I do think Hoid Slayer is pretty much a textbook elim for not solving and doing a lot of floating around and giving excuses when pushed to solve. Ftr. Discuss.

Anyways, hi

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

this specifically

Any chance you can spell this out for me a bit more?

5 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Also this is pretty bad.

Same question.

7 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I do think Hoid Slayer is pretty much a textbook elim for not solving and doing a lot of floating around and giving excuses when pushed to solve. Ftr. Discuss.

Do we then assume he went full apathy on the Dive exe? He's in the three I'm primarily considering today.

[Aeternum]

First for being something I wouldn't expect an elim to say to another elim in thread.

Second for light defense of flipped elim, suggesting to not vote there.

And third, I don't know what you mean.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

And third, I don't know what you mean.

Completely did not vote. Argenti thinks apathy should be a point in favour of V!Hoid:

4 hours ago, Argenti said:

For me personally, I doubt that Hoid is a rebel. I do get the grind, and this is the time of year that is horrifying for the youngsters. He seems earnestly locked out, I would expect a rebel to at least vote.

I'm trying to work out how I feel about this because we got burned by Dingo before when Dingo didn't save teammates. It's true I'd expect Hoid to have voted in that world. I suppose it's also possible that with Fura on his side, Dive didn't feel he needed another teammate to defend him, and the votes were comfortably 3-2.

[Aeternum]

I had a thought about Hoid Slayer not committing to reads due to still being lost tbh.

Hoid Slayer last posted 2 hours to EoD on day 3, where wagons were tied 2-2. Possibly just didn't think it was needed, given Divergent was (at the time) not self-pressing, and Fura sniped Divergent in the last two minutes. I don't think I'd clear Hoid Slayer for not defending Divergent there, both because of lost wolf stuff, and because SE is sort of just like that where I don't think it's smart to make a read on that due to lower average activity here.

I think Hoid Slayer's lack of solving is pretty much just always an elim lol. I'd expect more from v!Hoid Slayer, given it's day 5.

[Kasimir he/him]

31 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I had a thought about Hoid Slayer not committing to reads due to still being lost tbh.

That does mean even if he's E, he's not our Spymaster? I have no objection since we have to gun our way through pretty much every last Rebel until the Spymaster is gone, but I'm also thinking aloud in terms of who is likely to be what. Tbf if Hoid is exed and flips Rebel, it is possible he simply didn't receive that drop and just made the claim. (I have some hesitation because I think we are assuming similarities in the drop that can be down to order of claims or just the fact that we're not hearing more from Hoid et al about the framing of it, which is why I asked a little yesterday.) Drop just was our thoughts RE: whether at least two Rebels have established contact or not.

Not changing my vote at this point because I'm guaranteed to be on later and I do want to hear from Storm as well. But no objection to an exe within my 3-pool, which includes Hoid

Edited to add:

@Aeternum: Want to know what you make of this claim:

7 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

For what it’s worth, I too received a dead drop, and didn’t save Fura cause I was busy saving my own skin

Edited October 29, 2025 by Kasimir

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I mean, isn't saving yourself and Fura two separate things? Sending in a protect =/= trying to save yourself in the thread, and as far as I can see it didn't go anywhere because you legit just said "don't make me vote" and then things moved on.

What I meant was I used my medic ability on myself. Not Fura. Not anyone else. Me, because I was scared the rebels would see me as a threat. In hindsight, it's not the obvious move I saw it as.

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Hoid's apathy is interesting, as are the observations about friendly neighbourhood Observer State.

I swear if that thing kills me 

6 hours ago, Booknewt said:

Yeah I got the same message. Also, turns out that I accidentally lied yesterday about not getting dead drops bc somehow Drake's message with the messages got marked as cleared. Is there some way to turn off the "clear all incoming messages when one is opened" feature?

The contents of today's dead drop:
Just a "good luck you'll need it." Might be a response to a similar message to the one I recieved yesterday given the emphasis on the first sentence (see below). Planet guy's gone, so that was probably Divergent. No help there.

The contents of yesterday's dead drop:
A threat to send me to Mustafar and a "send a dead drop to all players starting with Ladies and Gentlemen". Not overly helpful.

If TwinStorm ends up being elim I will be kicking myself bc yesterday at like 12:58 I almost swapped my vote to TwinStorm bc IHAT wasn't seeming like an elim. (if i were to send a last minute rp as an elim I sure wouldn't be doing a "it was time to get fired", that is a purely village move)

Although does anyone know what the details about what he did with his role were? Bc he said he would send them but never did. I think he arrested Kas, and said it didn't change anything, but that's a guess from what he said in an rp. 

Sry about voting you IHAT, and rip Fura.

I'm wondering why Argenti and TwinStorm seem so opposed to each other - Argenti's constantly voted TwinStorm and now TwinStorm's voting Argenti as well. I honestly can't see a world where both of them are elim. So these are my current elim candidates: Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE (well Aeturnum now ig), Worldhopper, HoidSlayer. Doc or Kas may be in there, but I'm considering those five for now bc I have a fairly consistent village read on Doc and Kas and my deepwolf world aged real well yesterday. If all five are elim, we're losing. If four are elim, this'll be !!!FUN!!! (translation: this'll be incredibly dicey and will suck). So I'll go over my possible three elim teams bc I don't want to think about four or five elim worlds. 

All possible teams out of my primary suspects (this took forever to write out): [Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [Argenti, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [ACE, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer]. Someone lemme know if I missed anything, I hate combinatorics.

We can rule out the following for now. [Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [Argenti, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [ACE, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer]. bc Argenti and TwinStorm are far too opposed to be on the same team. 

TwinStorm called out IHAT, Argenti, and Hoid Slayer in his post. This further rules out the "Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer" world bc while he might call out one teammate, he wouldn't call out two. I'm going to put all worlds where he's on the same team as Hoid Slayer in yellow bc those are unlikely at least, although not impossible.
[Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [Argenti, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [ACE, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer]

Dive was "less suspicious" of TwinStorm D3, when he had likely linked up with someone, so that indicates TwinStorm slightly, want to think about that more in my analysis though. Argenti is defending Hoid Slayer, so going to put the worlds where those two are on the same team in green. This is the point against TwinStorm being an elim - Argenti and TwinStorm not on same team, TwinStorm against Argenti and Hoid Slayer, Argenti supporting Hoid Slayer. 

[Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper], [Argenti, TwinStorm, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [Argenti, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [Argenti, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Hoid Slayer], [TwinStorm, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer], [ACE, Worldhopper, Hoid Slayer]

Worldhopper voted Hoid Slayer, the only one to do so. Either they knew it wouldn't gain any traction, or wanted to make themselves less suspicious.

If anyone has any ideas on how to eliminate any of these worlds, or any info that could eliminate some, pls let me know.

As it stands:
Argenti - 3 worlds, 2 with support shown, 3 more vy unlikely.
ACE - 5 worlds, 1 likely, 1 unlikely. 1 more vy unlikely.
Worldhopper - 5 worlds, 1 likely, 1 unlikely, 1 more vy unlikely.
Hoid Slayer - 5 worlds, 2 unlikely, 2 likely, 1 more vy unlikely
TwinStorm - 3 worlds, 2 unlikely, 3 more vy unlikely. 

I need some way to eliminate ACE, Worldhopper, or Hoid Slayer. Fura got no action from Hoid Slayer D3/D4, and Hoid was active then, so would've submitted a vote. That makes me lean towards non-Hoid worlds for now, so [Argenti, ACE, Worldhopper], [TwinStorm, ACE, Worldhopper]. (with [Argenti, TwinStorm, ACE] and [Argenti, TwinStorm, Worldhopper] as unlikely) That doesn't rly help with the Argenti vs TwinStorm mess, but does indicate ACE and Worldhopper somewhat. 

@Argenti @TwinStorm@ThatOneWorldhopper@Aeternum, I'd be interested to hear your reads on things

At first glance, I like this form of analysis a lot, although it seems to break down the more one looks at it and realizes it's all based off assumptions

But then again, I'm not really one to talk sooo...

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

  Normally when you say something like this, I expect distancing, because that's what happens with mutually-valenced aggression. There can be worlds where it's V/V, but context will probably help distinguish between both worlds. I'll look at the votes in a bit as I've something due, but if I don't get to it in time, I need someone to help me check/establish what happens to Argenti and TwinStorm voting on each other when each other is endangered. Are they switching off, is there a push for an in-thread alternative?

I like this

I like this a lot

Worth mentioning, though, that last game me and Jo where elim together and were pretty consistently vehemently against each other in thread and yet still won

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I think Hoid is just a good enough player

Aww thanks 

Yeah I have no intention of making any real analysis. These little quips take up too much time already 

As for the staying alive, regardless of what alignment I am, regardless of my activity levels, do not expect me to go down without quietly

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

16 player game means probably 3-4 elims, I skimmed the setup a little too much to determine if it's more likely one way or the other. So likely 1-2 elims left. 6 v 2, 7 v 1, or I suppose some off chance of 5 v 3.

TwinStorm/Argenti is probably not a pair, based on late day 4 (this specifically, and also the votecount) (and from day 3 this is probably never a pair).

Booknewt was towny day 4 and day 3 (I'm reading the game backwards rn). Also doesn't give bussing vibes day 3 so I'm comfortable with her being town.

Hoid Slayer seems to like avoiding thread and giving excuses for a lack of analysis, which I've noticed both across all of day 4, today, day 3, and the couple posts I read from day 2. Pretty different from what I remember of Hoid Slayer in previous games. The amount of excuses is very elim-coded lol. Hoid Slayer spends a lot of time on day 3 spending posts on questions that don't seem to lead anywhere. Also this is pretty bad.

Unless Kas/Argenti are paired, d3 e!Kas could've avoided bussing Divergent by voting Argenti (or really anyone). This might not make sense because of lost wolf stuff but eh I'm just going to ignore it because mech is my downfall. Points in favor of Kas.

Not sure if I'm going to read into Divergent's self-pres on Argenti. Didn't get a solid read on ToW or Doc while reading overall thread, aka they didn't stand out in any way.

Probably looking at Hoid Slayer + [ (TwinStorm/Argenti), ToW, Doc ] right now. I think I'm going to throw Kas and Booknewt into the not worrying about right now group. Kas looked fine on a skim, I got the impression he's disconnected from several people, and Booknewt is just towny. Wary about writing off Kas too soon, but even in worst case worlds, we should have space to do so today. Unless there's kp I'm unaware of.

I do think Hoid Slayer is pretty much a textbook elim for not solving and doing a lot of floating around and giving excuses when pushed to solve. Ftr. Discuss.

Anyways, hi

Alright a bit more serious post

I understand everyone's concerns about my activity, and I get them

I sincerely do

And yes, you guys deserve better. But trust me, please, my activity has nothing to do with my alignment

Yes, it's pretty different from Hoid Slayer in previous games. Because Hoid Slayer in previous games killed himself analyzing. And I don't want to do that. I'm sorry. But not this time.

If you want to analyze my elim play, check out this game:

I was very active, and it was brutal

I don't want to go through that this time

Kill me if you will

But do not do so because of factors I cannot control

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Alright

people want reads

I give them reads

 First of all, I'm fairly sure all the elims are in the doc. They've seemed to stop contacting players specifically, and just started messaging threats/inspirational messages depending on how you take it

Spoiler

Doc - slight ISB. For rn, i trust him, something about his PMs with me signify ISB. He's been asking for info, but nothing that sounds like an e!Doc prying for a player. Also, a lot of his actions make sense as a village. Then again, I have no conclusive evidence that he's ISB, so its just a lean for rn

Newt - I really don't know. Going ISB for rn, but no conclusive feelings other than vibes, but my gut is saying ISB. I feel like people have expressed v/sentiment? Can yall explain?

Argenti - Man, it's a mixed bag. Argenti's hate of me seems kinda genuine, and I made up my mind last cycle that hes an elim, but I'm rethinking this. No elim would be that blatant in trying to kill a player. What I don't understand is e!Argenti not submitting a kill on me out of sheer annoyance. I'm stupid so idk, but neutral.

TOW - Rebel.  I don't like some of his more recent reads and posts, he's been weird to Kas recently, and hes mostly been floating through thread, refusing to anaylze 

Hoid - Rebel. For much the same reasons as TOW, hes been hyperactive but steadfastingly refusing to post anaylsis.

Aet/ACE - Neutral. No thoughts. Didn't interact much with ACE, and Aet is still catching up

Kas - ISB. I've played elim with them, this is not how Kas plays elim. He has a certain village resignation he doesn't bring to elim games.

With these reads I've . . . gotten nowhere.

Yay.

Uh

TOW

Best guess rn

its time to toss the dice

[Doc12]

Ugh okay. 

Let's see what we have here. 

Last night was interesting. I was willing to exe IHAT, Argenti, Worldhopper, or Hoid Slayer. I started off on IHAT, but the vote wasn't going anywhere so I joined Fura on Argenti. I think what happened then was that IHAT and Argenti immediately swiveled to Twinstorm, and it was both IHAT's general defensiveness and the sudden unity that made us uneasy. Fura suggested that we switch back to IHAT, and was sure that Booknewt would join in the vote. I went to bed around the time Booknewt showed up voting Fura, but I guess she did join us in the end. And we were wrong. Yay. 

Twinstorm

Voted KSOS, TUH, Argenti, Argenti.

Interestingly, Twinstorm doesn't really have a reason to be voting Argenti other than stating self-preservation on the last 2 cycles, but he does have a point that Argenti just seemed set on going after Twinstorm. Twinstorm said last cycle the elims were (IHAT, Argenti, Slayer), but also didn't really say where he got that reasoning. Posted reads this cycle, but are mostly vibes based - the section on me and Newt seems very half-assed. I wanted to like Twinstorm, since he's been more active and chatty in PMs, but yeah at this point he and Argenti, even more than Hoid Slayer, are 'here' but not saying much. 

Argenti

Threw a vote on Twinstorm on day 2 and has been trying to get Twinstorm exed ever since. The first few cycles were just 'vibes' and 'active but not saying much' which are things that also apply to Argenti. IHAT was village, but I don't know if that really changes much about Argenti's behavior. They seem earnest (like they said about me lol) and I am intere

Worldhopper 

Day 1, voted STINK alongside me and KSOS. Day 2, votes TUH. missing most of day 3. Day 4, votes Kas, then Hoid Slayer. 

I feel like I have no read on Worldhopper, really, other than being slightly off. We've PM'd, but for only very brief exchanges with no real exchange of information. The most information I have is that they wanted to flip IHAT and Hoid Slayer. Minimal interactions with everyone else other than brief flirtations with e!kas or e!fura. 

Hoid Slayer

Missing most of day 1 and 2, came back in 3 with a bang, then kind of petered off again. Has mostly been riffing. Also I feel for that last post. My activity has also been pretty lacking between working in the mornings and being too tired to stay up for rollover. I do think you should vote, though. 

Booknewt

didn't vote day 1, TUH day 2, Dive day 3, IHAT day 4. 

So I want to like Booknewt. On day 3, she was one of the people that exed Divergent. And she made a post with actual reasons why she voted Divergent too. But a part of me is now wondering how much of the 'reasoning' was made up after she had decided to vote as Fura asked. On day 4, she does go after Fura briefly, but then switches back to the same target Fura picked. Which puts me in the mind of an elim following a vocal villager's lead to gain cred. Claims that she was thinking on switching back to Twinstorm.

Ace/Aet

Hi Aet! As always, valiant effort to catch up and post your own analysis. is currently going after Hoid Slayer. 

Kas

Obviously a deepwolf it's the only explanation/s

I've been staring at this wall of text for too long. 

I wanted to vote for Hoid, but his frustration does seem genuine and juggling SE and school/work is a lot esp in a QF. Then I was going to go with TOW, then Twinstorm posted and now I'm second guessing myself. 

I think there's an elim in Booknewt/Twinstorm/Argenti. 

I also think there's an elim in TOW/Hoid, especially with 'planet guy' active the first day, missing day 2, then coming back on day 3 like the two of them. 

Ugh. Worldhopper for now. I'm going to take another break and come back to this. 

[Argenti he/him]

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

Argenti - Man, it's a mixed bag. Argenti's hate of me seems kinda genuine, and I made up my mind last cycle that hes an elim, but I'm rethinking this. No elim would be that blatant in trying to kill a player. What I don't understand is e!Argenti not submitting a kill on me out of sheer annoyance. I'm stupid so idk, but neutral.

 

Yeah if I was a rebel, I would have killed you.

Swear I don't hate you, just something is off about your energy.