deep substrate foliated kalkite QF77: (S)Andor(son) Elimination

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT PEOPLE ARE ALREADY DYING? 

I haven’t even made a real post yet

Just poking in real quick to say that I really cannot be like active in this game, I’m just so busy

It’s sad, and @Kasimir I was looking forward to playing another game with you, but I am somewhat regretting my signup

So yeah… I’m sorry, but don’t expect much from me

 

[Divergent He/Him]

First game here and my vote ends up contributing to the ISB Supervisor getting voted out Cycle 1  and I was trying to save a Rebel too

Rebels shooting their own is a good thing. I wonder how that ended up happening.

 

[Doc12]

Ayyyy we got one! ...Kind of?

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Sorry, having difficulty locking in because I got news my GOAT might be returning but his booking has sucked this year so I'm feeling both excitement and trepidation and I can't seem to think today. Also people hate on him, alas  

Anyway, thoughts off the cuff:

-Good job KSauce. Unfortunate we voted you but the fact we haven't lost indicated KSauce did the most important thing correct.

-Could be a series of unlucky rolls on the Elims part but I'm guessing more than one member submitted STINK. That's interesting because normally you'd expect a preference not to overlap with the exe for maximum coverage.

I can see two worlds here:

A. They really thought STINK was the Head Honcho (not sure, STINK has a tendency to mass PM in many games though, IDK if he did it here, and without comms, IDK how they would know.)

B. It gives us a cut-off time for the Elims putting in the kill target, i.e. they did it before STINK came into contention, or just weren't paying enough attention/didn't bother. (Normally you'd prefer to kill outside of it, unless they somehow really thought STINK was the Head Honcho, in which case spread/overlap concerns stop mattering.) In this world, we're looking at:

Quote

(less likely to have put STINK on kill): TOW, Newt, Doc, Storm, Divergent, Exp
Just running raw exclusion here: TUN, Coder, Argenti, Hoid, Ace, Lotus
Not there: Fura

NOTE: First set isn't clean, second set isn't completely tainted by Rebel scum. We're just taking a probabilistic look here.

Going with Lotus for the moment.

-Anyone received an anon message about [REDACTED]? I don't think it's that difficult to research it up but I'm curious about the range and if the message structure might imply anything about the person that sent it, give us something to work on where the Elims are concerned. (I'll say more later, I just don't want to play my hand first in case there's a way of catching liars/disambiguating.)

[Ookla the Newt she/her]

Huh. Did not know that could happen. So to be clear, the Rebels tried to kill one of their own, and it got rerolled, but landed on another Rebel?

Or did they deliberately vote STINK? 

If the former, not sure how much we can tell, if the latter, my guess is the person was active before the STINK pileup started, bc if active afterwards they'd just have voted for STINK, unless they were a really experienced player trying to avoid suspicion.

Divergent could theoretically fall into that category, bc he could've changed votes to not vote for STINK to avoid suspicion, but he's new so not so sure about that. 

I'll do more later, my parents are telling me I need to leave now.

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

Or did they deliberately vote STINK? 

The write-up says STINK was hit by the kill. They could've deliberately voted STINK regardless but in general, unless they felt there was a decent chance STINK was the Head Honcho (i.e. really wanted STINK dead), there's no tactical value in overlapping and having the same guy potentially hit by your kill and your vote. That's why I think there's a chance to do some light pool analysis here.

This means:

Say we have six Rebels (IDK, just working with this number off vibes/similar reasons to TUH last cycle.)

In our most "screw the Rebels in particular" unlucky world, this is what happens:

1. The exe has a 1/3 chance of hitting STINK. It has a 2/3 chance of hitting someone else and does.
2. Then, STINK's name is only submitted once for the kill. (STINK would never vote STINK.) 1/6 chance that Drake RNG picks STINK.
3. STINK is an Elim so Drake rerolls. Another 1/6 chance that STINK is picked and somehow, we still get the STINK pick.

( @DrakeMarshall btw pls correct me if I'm wrong.)

[Note there is a slight modulation if Fura is an Elim due to Fura being inactive, meaning we're looking at 1/5 chances here. Either way I don't think there is a point in pursuing this for now until/unless Fura returns or is replaced.]

This is why I'm kinda low-key thinking that probably more than one Rebel (but not STINK) wrote his name in. I would expect it to be hard to get high convergence, but hitting that one name both times is rough even if it's possible.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

huh okay

thats weird and slightly unfortunate for the rebels, but still yay

anyways, Ksauce kill is unfortunate, but my reasoning for stating that train was a) we have no circumstantial evidence, but we must vote someone out, b) he's not super active but also fairly good at the game

what drop box messages did you receive? I received one about durasteel and one threatening one

Edited October 26, 2025 by TwinStorm
specificity

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, TwinStorm said:

what drop box messages did you receive? I received one about durasteel and one threatening one

If we can have disambiguated messages, we can probably work out the size of the Elim team at the very least, and add one more for the world in which they're smart enough to hold one back. (They won't know this so it's a risk, hence I think +1 works fine in terms of error margins.) I don't think we can c/p exact message text so I'll just ask you if the threatening one names any planets, and if so, if the planets appear in the Star Wars Original Trilogy only.

@DrakeMarshall - How much of the messages can be shared btw?

I only received one, for the record.

I think text/phrasing might give us some ability to ID the sender too - Twei used that in MR2 (stop, I will accept no complaints about why I remember such a long ago game ) to identify Jo and someone else (I kinda wanna say Tulir) via linguistic analysis and the Village curbstomped the Elims with zero losses. Won't lean too hard on it but it's a possible avenue. I certainly used it to ID one Elim in MR4.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

if so, if the planets appear in the Star Wars Original Trilogy only.

Hell if I know 

I got two, one mentions jumping in a rancor pit and another is formatted with a sign off.

[Myst He/Him]

I only got the one about durasteel, and that one’s hard to get anything from. Vibes wise, I’m thinking that all the people that voted Stink didn’t have negative thoughts, at least ones shared in this. There wasn’t really a reason for doing so that until later where none of them really were online, so, for now I’m again going with Cal Kyte. that said, I’ll have to do a better job at this, so I might change my vote later

Edited October 26, 2025 by IHadAThought

[Doc12]

here are my beat by beat mostly complete notes from yesterday.

Quote

Divergent:

Divergent: hi everyone

Lotus: cant go around killing people

Twinstorm: votes Kas

Kas: votes unknown

Stink: suggests pacifism (irony) Twinstorm and Doc agree

TOW: asks me about PMs

Ace - rp

Twinstorm: talks about PMs

Hoid: too busy to play

Kas: initial reads

Lotus: argues against pacifism

Unknown: claims he likes rebels 

Lotus and Ace argue against pacifism

Twinstorm: RP

Worldhopper: RP

Exp: RP

Hoid Slayer, Thought, Divergent: RP

Kas talks about connectives

I put a vote on STINK

Twinstorm: votes KSOS

Kas: keeps vote on Unknown

Thought: votes Twinstorm

Kas and Unknown and Thought talk dark forest theory

Kas: talks about looking for agenda, vibe reads, read changes

Brief discussion of how distro was picked

Ksos votes Stink

Kas gives a read list - likes Divergent, Twin, and Thought, me, weird about TUH and EXP

Booknewt enters, wolf read on unknown. gives vote count

Exp gives read list - explicitly asks not to kill STINK? likes Thought and Booknewt, no thoughts on anyone else, votes KSOS

Booknewt votes Twinstorm for not PMing everyone (fair)

I give my reads list, which to be fair I don't really have any reads and just giving vibes.

Worldhopper votes STINK - no real reasoning?

Divergent wants to trust Kas and me

Twinstorm defends not PMing everyone (weak)

Divergent votes KSOS explicitly to save STINK (i would say interesting but again rebels don't know each other)

Booknewt retracts Twinstorm vote

Agree that its kind of interesting that one or more elims shot STINK when Stink was already up for death. I wasn't active end of cycle but when I went to bed the vote was already tied between KSOS, STINK, and Twinstorm, and I was fine with whatever the result was going to be. In terms of reads nothing really jumped out at me yesterday other than KSOS 'poke voting' STINK when I had already done that, but KSOS is proven village. 

Another thought I had is that a lot of people - Kas, Exp, Divergent - ascribed feeling positive about STINK.

It looks like it was a tie until Worldhopper pushed STINK to the front, and then Divergent stepped in and voted KSOS to make it a tie. (So congratulations Divergent it is very much your fault that our supervisor died ) 

Worldhopper might be off the hook for trying to confirm the vote on STINK. 

People who didn't show up last cycle: Fura, CD (though CD did return my message)

People who were barely there last cycle: Hoid Slayer, Argenti?

Agreed that the dead drops are probably the best source of info we have right now - I got two, one which told me to say a certain word in thread, and one mentioning two planets, both of which have already been shared, I suppose. One of them had a kind of jokey tone which made me think STINK or Unknown, but I hesitate to go that far right now. 

I kind of trust Kas and Twinstorm and even Unknown a little more for sharing their messages, but it could also be a self-claim. 
 

Right now Divergent for the unfortunate vote. Could you tell us what STINK said that made you want to protect him?

[Myst He/Him]

So it seems like there’s two dead drops, the one telling us today a word to show we’re friends that I got, and apparently a planet one? 

Edited October 26, 2025 by IHadAThought

[Kasimir he/him]

19 minutes ago, IHadAThought said:

So it seems like there’s three dead drops, the one telling us today a word to show we’re friends that I got, apparently a planet one? And one about a rancor threat, though those two may be the same, based on unknowns and Kas’s exchange 

Rancor one's the same as the friends.

(Ok but if we can share 'em, is there really any point in being coy about them? I tend to try to maximise info to Village especially if more of us knowing it means coordination problem.)

AFAICT:

Message #1: Rancor message 

Players with it: TUN, Newt

Message #2: Specific word

Players with it: Lotus, Doc

Message #3: Sign-Off

Players with it: Newt, Kas, TUN

If we establish that specific word and rancor are the same messages, then there's just two that we've established. However, there's something a bit weird about the specific word and rancor message (note: it's not a very STINK message I don't think.) Mostly because it was mass sent and almost certainly would include a villager in the pick-up so would never work. So what's the point of it? Does it indicate a certain type of player temperament/experience level?

The other thing we can maybe try to do is to match messages with reads, especially depending on who they targeted. The sign-off message IMO looks a bit more screwing around, FWIW, but the specific word and rancor one looks more targeted to me.

Exp claimed a message but hasn't stated which.

Edited to add:

48 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Another thought I had is that a lot of people - Kas, Exp, Divergent - ascribed feeling positive about STINK.

  I gave him a null read btw. Chill isn't indicative for STINK. You should know that and should know I know that. But I was never gonna D1 STINK regardless.

[Myst He/Him]

Yeah, I realized they were the same which is why I updated my post

[Ookla the Newt she/her]

I got the certain word and two planets dead drops as well. It looks like those were sent to a LOT of people, at least assuming that everyone who got them actually got them.

I'm wondering what the point of the durasteel one was, bc why send it to so many people? If you do that, it loses all meaning, bc everyone knows what the person who said that word means. Almost feels like bait tbh - if someone sends something saying durasteel early enough before anyone else says it's a keyword, then we would know that person's prob a rebel. But it can't be bait bc only rebels can send dead drops. So not sure what's going on with that.

Going to cut Divergent some slack for now bc he's new, but I do want to hear what his reasoning was. (then again I have been guilty in the past of not voting sm bc feel bad about it, see Unknown yesterday)

39 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Worldhopper might be off the hook for trying to confirm the vote on STINK. 

I disagree with that, bc due to the lack of rebel communication, he might not have known. Don't think him doing that was suspicious either, but it's certainly not indicative of anything.

My current best guess is that it's someone who wasn't active when the pileup happened. By that logic, Experience, Worldhopper, Divergent, and TwinStorm are less likely to be a rebel, although Divergent's actions are still suspect.

Current reads:
 

1. TwinStorm as Johnny Kuplack 
Leaning positive. He hasn't done anything too suspect, and shared information with ppl. Then again, he is experienced enough that can't be a proof-of-innocence in any way.

2. Doc12 as Cal Kyte 
Mixed feelings here. He had mass dming, which isn't suspect on its own, but is when combined with some other stuff. Almost certainly wasn't the one to kill STINK bc he voted for STINK, but that can't be ruled out either bc he's experienced enough to want to cover his tracks. Additionally, he's shown interaction with the source material, and the dead drop messages had significant numbers of references (again, though, that's not indicative). He isn't acting suspect, so currently I'm going to keep an eye on him but not going to vote for him unless more stuff happens.

3. TheUnknownHammer as Unknown 
Leaning positive, for similar reasons as for TwinStorm. 

4. Divergent as Zeke Slane 

I want to hear why he voted for Ksauce in more detail, but I'm willing to cut him some slack bc he's new. 

6. CoderDragon as Your Mistakes 
Not shown up, so no thoughts

7. Argenti as Jallo Delste 
Not shown up (much at least), so no thoughts

8. ThatOneWorldhopper as Dying Right Now 
Not many thoughts right now

9. Hoid Slayer as Coming Later 
I can't decide whether to be suspicious of him not showing up much, but it's not rly fair to vote someone based purely on them being busy.

10. Furamirionmind as Kimrick Hammyr 
Not shown up, so no thoughts.

11. Experience as Garthyl Karn 
More likely to have killed STINK, bc voted Ksauce. Was active when STINK and Ksauce were the two main contenders. Has claimed a message, but hasn't stated which, according to Kasmir. Assuming Kasmir isn't playing some deep game, that's pretty suspect - feels like he was waiting for more info on the content of the messages. Has interaction with the source material ("Karn"), and the dead drop messages had significant numbers of references (again, though, that's not indicative).

All of that together, though... Yeah I'm going to vote Experience for now.

12. -ACE- as Jasher Shea 
Not many thoughts right now

13. IHadAThought as Lotus 
Leaning negative, I'm not sure why though. Something feels off, but might be just bc he's new.

14. Kasimir as Korun 

Sharing information / decreasing fog of war, so leaning positive for same reasons as Unknown and Twin

 

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Message #1: Rancor message 

Players with it: TUN, Newt

Message #2: Specific word

Players with it: Lotus, Doc

Message #3: Sign-Off

Players with it: Newt, Kas, TUN

I think that the rancor message and the specific word message are the same one, bc I got the specific word one too (sry if that wasn't more clear)

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, IHadAThought said:

Yeah, I realized they were the same which is why I updated my post

You can't directly edit FWIW. Might need to revise the general rules again a bit    Just to remind everyone, you can't c/p PMs too. If you edit, normally we put an edit marker to show what was added - you can't take away or change already-written stuff but you can add clearly-demarcated words, like what I did here:

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add:

59 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Another thought I had is that a lot of people - Kas, Exp, Divergent - ascribed feeling positive about STINK.

  I gave him a null read btw. Chill isn't indicative for STINK. You should know that and should know I know that. But I was never gonna D1 STINK regardless.

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

I think that the rancor message and the specific word message are the same one, bc I got the specific word one too (sry if that wasn't more clear)

Can we suppose that the confusion means that neither Lotus nor Newt sent the Rancor message? I would assume that they'd not be able to make that kind of natural slip leading to confusion if they'd written it - there's TMI baked in there.

Edited October 26, 2025 by Kasimir

[Divergent He/Him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Say we have six Rebels (IDK, just working with this number off vibes/similar reasons to TUH last cycle.)

In our most "screw the Rebels in particular" unlucky world, this is what happens:

1. The exe has a 1/3 chance of hitting STINK. It has a 2/3 chance of hitting someone else and does.
2. Then, STINK's name is only submitted once for the kill. (STINK would never vote STINK.) 1/6 chance that Drake RNG picks STINK.
3. STINK is an Elim so Drake rerolls. Another 1/6 chance that STINK is picked and somehow, we still get the STINK pick.

I wrote a post and I think I accidentally clicked the hide option and I think it went to the void, so I’m rewriting it

Is there a precedent for it being six rebels? That feels like a lot of rebels in a 16 player game, but then again, I guess the mechanics/different win condition could make the ratio balanced

Also, I thought that if the rebels hit one of their own, then that player is exempted entirely from the reroll and all entries are removed. But I guess it’s possible I misunderstood it and it’s only the one entry that is removed and if there are repeats, then that person could still be hit again. So I too would like a clarification on that

1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

Right now Divergent for the unfortunate vote. Could you tell us what STINK said that made you want to protect him?

We only had a brief conversation wherein I realized he shared a similar timezone with me and that it’s nice that this game has a rollover that’s unlike many others where it’s a time that we’re asleep and have less control over what happens. So I wanted to give him a chance to survive by a dice roll and I didn’t really find any of the reasons for voting him to be compelling

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Divergent said:

Is there a precedent for it being six rebels? That feels like a lot of rebels in a 16 player game, but then again, I guess the mechanics/different win condition could make the ratio balanced

No. But this is a game with no Elim doc and with friendly-fire enabled. Six is probably the upper limit. Drake actually doesn't really follow the 1/4 orthodoxy (he feels vanilla games should skew smaller, though this isn't one - three for this game on Drake's books, with maybe one extra due to roles, but this is for a non-vanilla game, doesn't take into consideration the fog-of-war.) Anyway I'm too tired so we're gonna assume he does. 

He mentioned a few times wanting to do a larger Elim team to balance for the no Elim doc and friendly fire capacity. This'd give us something in the vicinity of a +1 or +2 - that's five or six.

3 minutes ago, Divergent said:

Also, I thought that if the rebels hit one of their own, then that player is exempted entirely from the reroll and all entries are removed. But I guess it’s possible I misunderstood it and it’s only the one entry that is removed and if there are repeats, then that person could still be hit again. So I too would like a clarification on that

Quote

Friendly fire results will be rerolled once per cycle (without replacement).

Quote

1. y'know the rules don't say, but I'm gonna decide right here and now that they are taken out of getting picked during the reroll, thank you for asking that

Yeah my bad, I misunderstood what he meant by 'without replacement' as I see he clarifies later in the sign-up thread. This means that the Rebels actually either:

A. Had two friendly-fire targets with STINK being the second one, or:
B. Had STINK twice as a friendly-fire target.

This probably shifts how convincing pool reasoning is, so I think I would put a little less weight on it but still want to look at it because I think STINK's death still has to reflect a particular set of reads/mindset/take on the threadstate.

And while we're at it:

Quote

4. Naming a successor doesn't count as an action. I'll also say that neither does sending an anonymous message. (Submitting a kill target does count as an attempted action, though, regardless of whether your target is the one that gets picked.)

So the people who chose not to send messages simply chose not to, or couldn't. Nothing to do with having something else to do.

[Divergent He/Him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I don't think we can c/p exact message text so I'll just ask you if the threatening one names any planets, and if so, if the planets appear in the Star Wars Original Trilogy only.

I received one with two planets (not familiar with the source material enough to know if they only appear in the original trilogy)

——

I can’t type below this quote for some reason. Anyways, yeah the larger team makes sense in this sort of game

And I think it would be accurate that there’s at least two friendly-fire targets. The first was rerolled and then the second one was Stink. Could be possible both targets received multiple entries too, making the hit more likely

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

He mentioned a few times wanting to do a larger Elim team to balance for the no Elim doc and friendly fire capacity. This'd give us something in the vicinity of a +1 or +2 - that's five or six.

A. Had two friendly-fire targets with STINK being the second one, or:
B. Had STINK twice as a friendly-fire target.

[Argenti he/him]

1 hour ago, Booknewt said:

Not shown up (much at least), so no thoughts

 

Jallo stares at his assigments, drowning in the red tape of the empire. He is a very busy fellow, unfortunately. 
~~~~

I also got the Duralumin message, and one sent for rebels. Something about Rancor pits.  

TwinSoul seems quite evil.

 

 

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Hey everyone, sorry for some reason I thought this started on the 27th not the 25th. Haven't had a chance to look through past messages yet. Can't at the moment but will definitely have a chance sometime in the next few hours. I'm alive and will post again in a bit.

[Experience he/him]

I've skimmed messages so far as I'm tied up with some irl stuff until later today. Some things to note, I've seen a couple people put blame towards those who made sure certain players were voted off last cycle and I think this has much less weight than regular games as elims don't know who else are elims and so have no reason to 'stand out' by pushing for someone for being village cuz they don't know they are village or not.

Also I assume the message I got is the sign off one as it does sign off and doesn't fit the descriptions I've heard of the other messages.

I do agree it's less likely that someone who voted stink also shot him which doesn't clear those who voted stink but maybe our attention should be towards the players that didn't at this point in time.

That's all I have time for now, I'll be back in a few.

[Myst He/Him]

We do have to keep in mind that not everyone is here, yes there might be 5 or 6 rebels, but we don’t know if they’ve been active. It’s possible that only one or two actually gave a person for a hit.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Okay, so if they are 5 or 6 rebels in play, but only 2 or so messages (I received both the durasteel one and the formal one) circulating that probably signifies less experienced players, which fits with Drake's statement of an underpowered team. Assuming then we have 2 veterans, STINK would be one of them. So if STINK's one of the rebels, who's the other?

Well, of the experienced players, neither Hoid Slayer or Kas seem committed, and I've seen them both play elims with a ton of efforts. My personal PMs with both also seem v!indicative, Kas doesn't seem like he's looking for teammates, just wants to discuss wrestling :P. That gives us Doc and TUH, being the main vets left, with some others in the mix. Of the two, Doc seems more trustworthy, he feels very laid back and PMs are fun. TUH on the other hand . . . I don't have any real reason to vote you, but breaking down the list, you seem the most likely. I also don't like your Dark Forest philosophy

@The Unknown Hammerer prove me wrong

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

Your Mistakes woke up.

How long have I been out?

He quickly checked around.

Only a day, good.

As he walked out of his bunk, he was suprised by a man at the door.

Kreen trusts me? What does that mean?

---

Can someone tell me what happened while I was away? Stink PMed me, was not expecting him to be an EVIL REBEL SCUM (ngl feels wierd to have the rebels be the bad guys after watching andor and star wars just in general)