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Posted (edited)

Um I voted to kill TUF and Twinstorm (twice), and didn’t want to become sitter. 
more to come later…

@Terrisman how did you become sitter? Just curious.

I vote for Sieran. Zero chance of her being black Ajah. 

Edited by BridgeBoi
Posted

You know I really thought that would be it game-wise

Also can anyone who's been keeping track of Ajah's post the Ajah chart please

Posted

Blue: BridgeBoi (Sitter), Drake, Stink

Yellow: Jo (Sitter), Kasimir, Ashbringer 

White: Steeldancer (Sitter), Teldris, Illwei

Brown: TUF (Sitter), TwinStorm, KelsierApologist 

Grey: Terrisman (Sitter), Aeternum, Mark

Green: Sart (Sitter), Hopper, Wizard

Posted
2 hours ago, BridgeBoi said:

Um I voted to kill TUF and Twinstorm (twice), and didn’t want to become sitter. 
more to come later…

@Terrisman how did you become sitter? Just curious.

I vote for Sieran. Zero chance of her being black Ajah. 

I became sitter because it was between me and Mark (experience was in my Ajah but not around). I didn’t want it but I didn’t trust mark so I wanted to let it go random because I thought that was better than me being manipulated into giving it to mark. He said he’d rather we pick someone so that there is what to take out of it so he would vote for me. 
 

I will obviously no vote. I think that if anyone has any doubts about either BridgeBoi or I, please voice them so we can all discuss it. This is most likely where we win or lose the game

Posted

Do we know how Sart was elected as Sitter? Preferably by someone who elected him and has died as village as the Ajah chart suggests both died doing such

Posted
1 hour ago, STINK said:

Do we know how Sart was elected as Sitter? Preferably by someone who elected him and has died as village as the Ajah chart suggests both died doing such

Wizard voted for me, and both myself and Hopper forgot to vote. It was a pretty quiet doc.

Posted

Okay so so far nobody voted. To let this go to random would definitely be a mistake.
It’s hard for me to make a case to vote for me. I don’t think I’ve done anything that seems evil, I’ve voted for multiple elims, but at the same time you could argue that maybe I bussed them just to seem like I’m village.
If anyone has any points to make about either of us please make them now

Posted (edited)

I will be at work until almost rollover. 

Bridgeboy

I can answer questions but pretty much everything I talked about before. Terrisman has had some good moments but everything he does he is visibly hyper-aware of his appearance and has been making connections i dont get. Especially the last cycle on Aet felt like he was desperately trying to save twin. 

--

TERRIS-  If they aren't  an Elim I would probably look Ash next. I gave him some passes in the beginning but were nearing endgame and his early analysis can't carry him far. 

STINK I'm not even going to try to read. Could be an Elim. Complaining about his docmates being silent is >rand STINK But yet I do mildly village read it for wanting more engagement. In thread is lacking but he's stink so. see comment below Steel. 

SART I am probably landing on town for. I can't explain it since i don't really believe it. He's made little waves and that could be Elim indicative, and both his docmates are dead makes me feel a little eh but. Idk. I've seen him be townier than he is right now i feel but it's been a while and in general I don't think the elims would let two sitters be tossed so early, especially when sart lost to a tie. 

Another reason for sart however is that on d2 we had e/e wagons and he/stink didn't vote on them at all. Imo they could be elims here but more likely in that situation I'd find the elims to be bussing. 

STEEL hasn't been around but I stand by what I said before about me thinking he's town. Doc hasn't been active (blame me) but what he wrote in the doc before when there were people is something I don't associate with an elim. Specifically standing up to them against Kas suspicion, which he would have no gain from if he was an elim and would have more likely helped stoked the flame to try and get Kas out D1. 

AETERNUM i still think is town. 

Aet/Steel

Stink/bridgeboi

Sart

Ash/Terris

I still have qualms with the people who voted off wagon during the hpper wagon, as that's the only time we have had a village exe.  

Imo the wagon on me was never going to take off and voting me was the same as voting on vanity wagons. [Looking back at the wagons part of my V read on bridgeboi was him voting me, which i now see was actually Hopper.]

I also have independent v reads of both aet and steel, the others on the Hopper wagon besides twin.  

I think what confuses me the most here is that if Aet is right in that the n1 was an "obvious" kill to get people off of TUN, then where are the wolves on the wagon. If I assume that I am correct in townreading both Steel and Aet then the Twin wagon was pure besides TUN. This does end up pointing maybe more to sart/stink unless it is actually aet who has tmi on the kill situation? But even in that case why wagon twin over trying to find a new wagon if that was the plan. 

Anyways all this to say is that the twin wagon is likely village motivated/village pushed, but I don't see why the Elims would be on TUN unless they were the latest voters. Which would bring me to terris and bridgeboi. But even then, if you're trying to set up a kill to prove TUNs innocence then why would you vote him out vs a different partner who you haven't set up. Even switching off of TUN and onto twin with twin flipping elim would have likely made TUN and the vote flippers look better. 

Anyways. 

I'd love thoughts on this from people. 

EDIT:

I don't know if I want this to be my final vote. 

@Ashbringer

@Aeternum

@Steeldancer

@Sart

Id love to hear comments about terris/bridgeboi at the least, because right now it feels like no one really cares. 

I understand that some people may have gotten complacent or might feel like it's in the bag with most likely one elim left. The problem is someone is going to get elected today, there isn't anything stopping that. If Terris or Bridgeboi are the last elim then if elected, it's going to be hard to win. And if we vote up a Villager there's still the chance we could end up voting them down and lose.

We need to be pretty sure about who we think the last elim is, but at the very least who it's not. 

Edited by Illwei
Posted
1 hour ago, Illwei said:

I can answer questions but pretty much everything I talked about before. Terrisman has had some good moments but everything he does he is visibly hyper-aware of his appearance and has been making connections i dont get. Especially the last cycle on Aet felt like he was desperately trying to save twin

I think that Aet is an elim. That being said it wasn’t just me. Sart Ash and even Kas all expressed doubt about Aet. And I was trying to save Twin. I didn’t think there was a chance one full Ajah was BA

I just want to point out that Twinstorm consistently didn’t allow us to still BridgeBoi and always voted for him…

And he did get on the Kas train quick. His explanation of thread control isn’t the best either 

Also, if ever there was a time to bus someone, it was Twinstorm because whoever becomes the Amyrlin would see their Ajah doc and I assume it would pretty obvious that they were all BA. It would be hard to fake a full doc

Posted
11 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

Also, if ever there was a time to bus someone, it was Twinstorm because whoever becomes the Amyrlin would see their Ajah doc and I assume it would pretty obvious that they were all BA. It would be hard to fake a full doc

I disagree with this quite a bit.

Considering both teammates were dead i wouldn't have bothered bussing him when I could delay that for more cycles. This implies that you assume twin if not bussed there would last that long? And even then, yes you find an Elim in a doc, but then you, if you've gotten that far, are probably at a point with 2 elims alive and one villager about to be removed from the game. 

Are you pushing aet so strongly because of Kas' legacy?

I will note that i have played multiple games with them offsite and this is what I'm basing my read of them on. I can't call it much more than a gut read but it's not a gut read in total. 

I will say that i can understand pushing twin and not voting him as suspicious in cases where they aren't about to die, but esp in the tossup with TUN I don't see that little being done to dissuade people off of TUN while voting another wolf as an Elim action. 

Posted

Well, things have been quiet.

I don't have a lot of time, and I also don't really want to wallpost again because I feel relatively chopping-blocked, but I have some thoughts.

Grabbing my VCs from last turn, but with TwinStorm in Red:

Spoiler

D1:

Kasimir (2): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Sart
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

Kasimir (4): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
KelsierApologist (2): The Wandering Wizard, A Jo in the Bush
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (3): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei,
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
DrakeMarshall (3): Ashbringer, A Jo in the Bush, Steeldancer
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (5): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei, Steeldancer, Ashbringer
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

 

D2:

TUF (2): BridgeBoi, The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV
 (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): Terrisman, TwinStorm
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): Terrisman, TwinStorm, Illwei
TUF (2): BridgeBoi, The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV
 (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum

TUF (4): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, KasimirThe Wandering Wizard
TwinStorm (3): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
Mark IV (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

TUF (5): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, KasimirThe Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer
TwinStorm (3): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (1): TUF
Mark IV (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

TUF (6): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, KasimirThe Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer, TwinStorm
TwinStorm (5): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum, Illwei, TUF
ThatOneWorldhopper (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

 

D3:

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): The Wandering Wizard, Steeldancer, TwinStorm
TwinStorm (1): BridgeBoi

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): Steeldancer, TwinStorm, Aeternum
Illwei (2): Ashbringer, ThatOneWorldhopper
TwinStorm (1): BridgeBoi
Aeternum (1): Sart
Steeldancer (1): Terrisman
Ashbringer (1): The Wandering Wizard

(Side note - make sure we keep this thing up to date, it'll come in handy.)

If BridgeBoi is an Elim, then that bolded VC is... very interesting. 3 Elims all voting on Kasimir D1 while the other exes are all around Elims (and Illwei). 

D2 was an E!-E! set of trains. That makes things somewhat hard to parse, but it leads to me leaning more V! towards the TwinStorm voters - if you're going to lose an Elim, might as well lose the one solidly implicated D1 rather than one that can (and did) wiggle out of the exe for another round. 

 

5 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

I think that Aet is an elim. That being said it wasn’t just me. Sart Ash and even Kas all expressed doubt about Aet. And I was trying to save Twin. I didn’t think there was a chance one full Ajah was BA

Honestly, I'm leaning more V! on Aeternum at the moment. Not entirely sure if I can fully explain why vibe-wise, but TwinStorm being an Elim means the whole "never voted on an Elim" goes away a bit.

Maybe a few other reasons for that.

 

If I had to get my way for the next few cycles: elect BridgeBoi. There's a case for being able to depose them, and we can do that in a few turns as long as we don't lose people to quasi-activity. Then Next turn, I'd like to exe Stink. After Stink there's a few options (Terris, Aet, Illwei, etc).

Maybe a bit metagamey, but TwinStorm hasn't been playing like someone who's there to set up some hidden deepwolf or a trusted Seat member, they've been playing like they very much did not want to get pushed for the exe and kind of went out of things at the end. I also think a Wiz kill, especially if it's one meant to be low-info instead of trusts, isn't necessarily a kill some candidates would make.

And if we can't find anything in those two turns... maybe depose BridgeBoi. Not sure a new player would manage to be a Deepwolf to that level, but it's possible.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I disagree with this quite a bit.

Considering both teammates were dead i wouldn't have bothered bussing him when I could delay that for more cycles. This implies that you assume twin if not bussed there would last that long? And even then, yes you find an Elim in a doc, but then you, if you've gotten that far, are probably at a point with 2 elims alive and one villager about to be removed from the game. 

Are you pushing aet so strongly because of Kas' legacy?

I will note that i have played multiple games with them offsite and this is what I'm basing my read of them on. I can't call it much more than a gut read but it's not a gut read in total. 

I will say that i can understand pushing twin and not voting him as suspicious in cases where they aren't about to die, but esp in the tossup with TUN I don't see that little being done to dissuade people off of TUN while voting another wolf as an Elim action. 

I agree when it was between Twin and TUF (why TUN?) that it may not have been a bus but yesterday (D4?) they would be found out pretty soon. If BB is an elim that can definitely help him get elected.

I’ll also point out I’m not pushing Aet very strongly as you say. I think he’s suspicious and I laid out a case for why. If you look back you’ll see I wrote that I’m not super confident about that. 
 

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:
Spoiler

D1:

Kasimir (2): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Sart
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

Kasimir (4): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
KelsierApologist (2): The Wandering Wizard, A Jo in the Bush
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (3): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei,
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
DrakeMarshall (3): Ashbringer, A Jo in the Bush, Steeldancer
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (5): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei, Steeldancer, Ashbringer
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

 

D2:

TUF (2): BridgeBoi, The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV
 (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): Terrisman, TwinStorm
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): Terrisman, TwinStorm, Illwei
TUF (2): BridgeBoi, The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV
 (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum

TUF (4): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, KasimirThe Wandering Wizard
TwinStorm (3): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
Mark IV (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

TUF (5): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, KasimirThe Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer
TwinStorm (3): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (1): TUF
Mark IV (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

TUF (6): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, KasimirThe Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer, TwinStorm
TwinStorm (5): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum, Illwei, TUF
ThatOneWorldhopper (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

 

D3:

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): The Wandering Wizard, Steeldancer, TwinStorm
TwinStorm (1): BridgeBoi

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): Steeldancer, TwinStorm, Aeternum
Illwei (2): Ashbringer, ThatOneWorldhopper
TwinStorm (1): BridgeBoi
Aeternum (1): Sart
Steeldancer (1): Terrisman
Ashbringer (1): The Wandering Wizard

 

Just go through the votes and look at it as if I or BB were an elim. Which way do the votes make sense. If I were an elim I don’t think my voting makes sense but BB’s are problematic.

 

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And if we can't find anything in those two turns... maybe depose BridgeBoi. Not sure a new player would manage to be a Deepwolf to that level, but it's possible.

Don’t like this. If we elect someone, don’t do it assuming they may be an elim. You need to assume they are village. It’s more likely that we’d depose a village Amyrlin then elect a BA one

Posted
3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Ashbringer

You want to elect bridgeboi Because there is a case to depose them? How do you feel about terris?

 

I feel better about BridgeBoi being Seat than I do Terris, tbh. Partially because of things Terris has said, partially because BridgeBoi has a somewhat more Villagey voting record (if not exactly a better one).

But I'm not sure what I feel about Terris. I don't think either Terris or BB is likely Elim, which is why I'd rather push STINK, if only for the reverse meta that E!TwinStorm E!Terris/BB is actually in an alright spot D3, and it's two brand new players on a team.

But I'm not entirely confident in that enough to say we don't depose BB if we can't find the last Elim in the next two cycles.

3 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

Just go through the votes and look at it as if I or BB were an elim. Which way do the votes make sense. If I were an elim I don’t think my voting makes sense but BB’s are problematic.

How so?

Posted

Question: @BridgeBoi do you think I’m an elim?

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

How so?

He was on the Kasimir train in the beginning. And TwinStorm refused to allow us to Still him

Posted
1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

But I'm not sure what I feel about Terris. I don't think either Terris or BB is likely Elim, which is why I'd rather push STINK, if only for the reverse meta that E!TwinStorm E!Terris/BB is actually in an alright spot D3, and it's two brand new players on a team

They're in a tight spot and then bus eachother if they're elims. 

Normally new players have a harder time getting over tmi, and therefore bus. I don't think terris or bb bussing twinstorm is too wild a thought. 

I do think that in general I trust BB more here, though it concerns me to a degree that I don't hear anyone trying to...fight or so? 

I think that bbs post today even telling people to vote is less fakeable than terris's posts this cycle. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I think that bbs post today even telling people to vote is less fakeable than terris's posts this cycle. 

Which part?

Posted
9 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

I agree when it was between Twin and TUF (why TUN?) that it may not have been a bus but yesterday (D4?) they would be found out pretty soon. If BB is an elim that can definitely help him get elected.

I’ll also point out I’m not pushing Aet very strongly as you say. I think he’s suspicious and I laid out a case for why. If you look back you’ll see I wrote that I’m not super confident about that. 
 

Just go through the votes and look at it as if I or BB were an elim. Which way do the votes make sense. If I were an elim I don’t think my voting makes sense but BB’s are problematic.

 

Don’t like this. If we elect someone, don’t do it assuming they may be an elim. You need to assume they are village. It’s more likely that we’d depose a village Amyrlin then elect a BA one

You say you aren't very sure about it, but saying that doesn't dissuade me in the slightest against my perception of how you have approached him. 

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