Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[Steeldancer he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Damn now I regret we didn't just elect and despose TUF, would've meant we could just play the game normally

Eh, but then I wouldn't be safe from the NK and would be at risk of having my RP interrupted 

It really annoys me when I actually have a good RP going and then I get killed for no good reason and have to abandon it. John deserves better. I swear it happens every single time... So for now, VOTE FOR STEEL SO HE DOESN'T GET STILLED AND KILLED. I want John to survive as long as possible 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Eh, but then I wouldn't be safe from the NK and would be at risk of having my RP interrupted 

It really annoys me when I actually have a good RP going and then I get killed for no good reason and have to abandon it. John deserves better. I swear it happens every single time... So for now, VOTE FOR STEEL SO HE DOESN'T GET STILLED AND KILLED. I want John to survive as long as possible 

Btw, we may need you guys to be ready to whip out those majority+ powers depending on what happens tonight. Not sure what maj will look like N3 but if we lose Drake and Jo simultaneously and have two more deaths, the vote threshold could drop drastically on N3. Hold fire first but think about it tomorrow I'd say - our goal is to delay the Amrylin election for as long as we can. And make sure we don't sleepwalk into accidentally electing Terris due to Grey Ajah having the passive -1.

Also, can people remind me who in your Ajahs wanted to be elected and who didn't? + Sitters, how did you get elected?

I'm the guy Jo was referring to as One, and Ash was Two - Jo campaigned for Sitter, I challenged him as I felt I would probably give us an easier time if I campaigned for Amyrlin, but eventually decided to support Jo though Jo offered to back me instead. I V!read Jo for our interactions about the nomination. Ash was immediately ready to support Jo and didn't want the Sitter position and was also wary of having me get it. (I sussed him at that time for it as I didn't see the impetus for immediate Jo support + felt E!Ash would probably not want an unexable and un-NKable V!Kas to deal with.)

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Oh?

Okay, I'm done for the day so I can take a look at some things. In terms of our current Sitters, I'm probably somewhere like this:

Terris - I still don't really agree with Aet and feel Aet is overcredencing here
Jo / Steel - Steel theoretically voted Polly out*, I guess at this point I should state I obtained Ash's permission to claim because it's mostly in-Ajah interactions that jacked my V!Jo credences earlier (generally our arguing back and forth about which of us should get the nomination for Sitter, and Jo having a really weird segment in our doc during N1 which he later deleted where he screenshot his spreadsheet notes, noted Polly was the only she/her on the player list, and then said he felt bad about Polly getting voted out early. To my mind, it's a very weird tangent and not really one I'd expect an Elim to just casually bring up like that in the doc.)
Sart - I don't think Sart's votes have been great, and I think people are overcredencing him for his comment on delaying the Amrylin election when I think this is a mech stance E!Sart would be happy to point out as well.
BridgeBoi - Self-professed D1 sheeper, but had a ? vote, just didn't really get called out for it due to being Blue Sitter.

I could probably be argued around to switching Sart and BridgeBoi, I'm just not as sure.

Part of the complication here is we're probably losing Jo regardless, so IDK how much sense it makes for me to keep Jo alive. @|TJ| Bhai, where does this fall in terms of OoA - can Jo be Stilled and inactivity removed at the same time? How will you decide between Drake and Jo if you only have one PH?

 

*I think Aet is overcredencing on the idea that someone bussed. In an E!Aet world, I think that's deliberate. I think bussing is possible but my understanding from Drake is that it's just a lot more aggressively a thing on MU than here, and I'm not convinced that a bus happened terribly early because the exes were competitive until late in the cycle. The main thing that appears potentially of concern here for D1 is, as Aet noted, that Polly could have self-presed and seems to have made a Choice not to do so.

Anyway: we have five Sitters left, and IMO, since we have exed two Black Ajah, one of whom was a Sitter, we are probably looking at a maximum of three Black Ajah in the Sitters, meaning there are at least two loss-avoiding tickets [=electable Village Sitters] in this set for us who need to remain in the Set (i.e. we need to keep them alive), unless we want to deliberately elect and despose a Black Ajah Amrylin I guess, lol. That could...also work I suppose?

Damn now I regret we didn't just elect and despose TUF, would've meant we could just play the game normally  

Reconfirming the Yellow Ajah will hold fire tonight if only because I sure ain't pushing that button, and Jo's AWOL.

Edited to add:

I should clarify the Sitters, unusually for me, are ranked in order of read strength. I acknowledge I don't agree with Aet's certainty that Terris is not subwoofing because I can absolutely see a subwoofing Terris, but Terris's votes and pushes have been on point (too on point? IDK.) and it's also not good to just reject that. Jo and Steel are thus in the next tier.

Edited to add 2:

Known Ajah compositions (Black Ajah probably has this or will be tracking anyway, so to hell with it.)

 

Gaywei

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Gaywei

It's the canon name now I see.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Unfortunately the white Ajah powers can only be used during the day, so we'd only be effective for N3, so if that's what you're looking for then yeah, I was planning at least using my own to continue to stall an Amyrlin vote. 

[Kasimir he/him]

17 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Unfortunately the white Ajah powers can only be used during the day, so we'd only be effective for N3, so if that's what you're looking for then yeah, I was planning at least using my own to continue to stall an Amyrlin vote. 

I was thinking of N3 onwards depending on the numerical drop. I don't foresee us struggling to avoid maj tonight. Depends I think, I'm too tired to do the maths for it off the cuff, but just, like, the longer we can prolong avoiding maj the better.

In worst world, let's assume <Drake, Jo, Mark> are all Village. IDK about Mark but I'm willing to feel that way about Drake and Jo right now. (If I'm wrong, great!) We're looking at losing all of them by D3 plus the NK target and the exe target (assuming a ML.) That's a bit more loss volume than we'd necessarily like and is a free balance for the number of BA we've exed. IDK maj would be that unavoidable either, but yeah the more we can stay away from it, the better.

Repeating my call for Sitters and people in Ajahs to talk about what elections were like in their Ajah. I'm slightly wondering if Blue Ajah is one of the Ajahs the BA would push to get the Sitter position in if they had a choice, due to the passive immunity.

FWIW if TJ says that Stilling comes before the inactivity flip ( @|TJ| ) , I might just let Jo be Stilled so we can delay the election by one more cycle.

Edited to add:

I'm aware some of you probably said it somewhere in the thread but that's way too many posts, I'm old, I'm tired, I work with frickin' children, I don't wanna do this, and I'm spending my energy going over the votes and some possibilities so I'd like if you could make my life a lot easier and just say it again if you've said it already, and if not, just say it, damnit!

[Terrisman]

42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I was thinking of N3 onwards depending on the numerical drop. I don't foresee us struggling to avoid maj tonight. Depends I think, I'm too tired to do the maths for it off the cuff, but just, like, the longer we can prolong avoiding maj the better.

In worst world, let's assume <Drake, Jo, Mark> are all Village. IDK about Mark but I'm willing to feel that way about Drake and Jo right now. (If I'm wrong, great!) We're looking at losing all of them by D3 plus the NK target and the exe target (assuming a ML.) That's a bit more loss volume than we'd necessarily like and is a free balance for the number of BA we've exed. IDK maj would be that unavoidable either, but yeah the more we can stay away from it, the better.

Repeating my call for Sitters and people in Ajahs to talk about what elections were like in their Ajah. I'm slightly wondering if Blue Ajah is one of the Ajahs the BA would push to get the Sitter position in if they had a choice, due to the passive immunity.

FWIW if TJ says that Stilling comes before the inactivity flip ( @|TJ| ) , I might just let Jo be Stilled so we can delay the election by one more cycle.

Edited to add:

I'm aware some of you probably said it somewhere in the thread but that's way too many posts, I'm old, I'm tired, I work with frickin' children, I don't wanna do this, and I'm spending my energy going over the votes and some possibilities so I'd like if you could make my life a lot easier and just say it again if you've said it already, and if not, just say it, damnit!

In my Ajah I didn’t really want the nomination because I’m new and also I’m often not available much on weekends. I also said that I didn’t want to vote for either of my docmates because there was a good chance that at least one of them was BA and they weren’t active much in thread so I had absolutely no read on them. So I was willing to go to random. One of them said that they’d rather it not go to random because then you can’t read anything into that. He then basically said it would be fine if I was sitter. I was worried (paranoid) that he was just trying to manipulate me into voting for him so I decided to just go for it

[Kasimir he/him]

33 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

One of them said that they’d rather it not go to random because then you can’t read anything into that. He then basically said it would be fine if I was sitter. I was worried (paranoid) that he was just trying to manipulate me into voting for him so I decided to just go for it

That...is such a weird attitude to have? Like why is the willingness to go random any less unreadable than voting for a Sitter lmao. How from his POV is making you a Sitter any easier in terms of trying to read anything into the voting?

Edited to add:

 Day Two [RAW]:

Spoiler

I open by joke-voting Sart. Wiz makes a very ? meta vote on TUF, which BridgeBoi quickly backs for the sus vote on me, and is thirded extremely fast by Terris.

Quote

Sart (1): Kas
TUF (3): Wiz, BridgeBoi, Terris

Storm joins me on Sart, which, no dice lol.

Quote

Sart (2): Kas, Storm
TUF (3): Wiz, BridgeBoi, Terris

Sart votes Mark for side-train vote on D1.

Quote

Sart (2): Kas, Storm
TUF (3): Wiz, BridgeBoi, Terris
Mark (1): Sart

Terris then votes for Hopper on the theory it has to be a new player making the kill.

Quote

Sart (2): Kas, Storm
TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Sart
Hopper (1): Terris

Hopper votes Terris which has very OMGUS energy ngl.

Quote

Sart (2): Kas, Storm
TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Sart
Hopper (1): Terris
Terris (1): Hopper

Ash votes for Aet on the basis of NKA. Hopper meanwhile realises he can't just exe a Sitter.

Quote

Sart (2): Kas, Storm
TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Sart
Hopper (1): Terris
Aet (1): Ash

I get weirded out by Wiz and vote Wiz instead.

Quote

Sart (1): Storm
TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Sart
Hopper (1): Terris
Aet (1): Ash
Wiz (1): Kas

Terris has a weird post about taking a second look at Jo. If Jo is BA, why not bus Polly there for trust? This entire post assumes the BA strategy is to get a trusted player in as Sitter, but it's odd to me that the main Sitters Terris takes issue with are all.....Sitters who didn't do the bus vote! (Steel, Terris are most implicated by this.)

I do vote analysis and switch to joining Sart on Mark for pressure within my NKA pool. Meanwhile, Aet votes STINK.

Quote

Sart (1): Storm
TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (1): Terris
Aet (1): Ash
STINK (1): Aet

Gaewei shows up and votes BridgeBoi. IMO by this point, Gaewei's view that TUF is consensus Elim is just wrong. There are a lot of trains and no one seems particularly interested in the TUF one. That's not really the expected landscape if TUF train was a foregone conclusion.

Steel votes Storm as one of the D1 voters on me. Illwei votes Sart, realises it is a mistake, and unvotes.

Quote

Sart (1): Storm
TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (1): Terris
Aet (1): Ash
STINK (1): Aet
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (1): Steel

Sart actively insisting his vote remains until Mark says something isn't doing wonders for my read of him. Sorry man, if you're V this is rough, and I'm still trying to find my groove wrt reading you again.

Hopper votes Storm, and Storm goes back on Hopper. Sigh. I am old, I am tired, and I work with children  (It's a reference, if you don't get it, dw.)

Quote

TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (2): Terris, Storm
Aet (1): Ash
STINK (1): Aet
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (2): Steel, Hopper

This introduces two more trains into contention, but the cross-voting doesn't feel like it's a winning strategy if both of them are E. Storm/Hopper not E/E. More willing to see V!Storm here due to the Ajah composition being whack, and I guess my N0-C1 read of Storm.

TUF votes Aet, so we now have five goddamned trains, thank you. My current view is that we expect a maximum of two Elims in this five-way: TUF probably isn't introducing yet another one.  So most likely: at most two Elims in <TUF, Mark, Hopper, Aet, Storm>, which brings us to about at most two in <TUF, Mark, Hopper, Storm.> 

Quote

TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (2): Terris, Storm
Aet (2): Ash, TUF
STINK (1): Aet
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (2): Steel, Hopper

Illwei votes Hopper, breaking the five-way. Hopper is now in the lead.

Quote

TUF (2): Wiz, BridgeBoi
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (3): Terris, Storm, Illwei
Aet (2): Ash, TUF
STINK (1): Aet
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (2): Steel, Hopper

Shortly after, Wiz unvotes TUF, removing TUF from the hot seat. But Terris soon switches off Hopper and onto TUF, bringing TUF back under pressure. Terris/Wiz not E/E.

Quote

TUF (2): BridgeBoi, Terris
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (2): Storm, Illwei
Aet (2): Ash, TUF
STINK (1): Aet
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (2): Steel, Hopper

STINK makes a sidetrain vote by voting Wiz.

Quote

TUF (2): BridgeBoi, Terris
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (2): Storm, Illwei
Aet (2): Ash, TUF
STINK (1): Aet
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (2): Steel, Hopper
Wiz (1): STINK

Aet goes onto Storm, creating another lead train.

Quote

TUF (2): BridgeBoi, Terris
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (2): Storm, Illwei
Aet (2): Ash, TUF
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (3): Steel, Hopper, Aet
Wiz (1): STINK

Wiz then equalizes by going onto Hopper. If E!Storm, Wiz looks sus here. However, it does serve to pad trains further away from TUF.

Quote

TUF (2): BridgeBoi, Terris
Mark (2): Sart, Kas
Hopper (3): Storm, Illwei, Wiz
Aet (2): Ash, TUF
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (3): Steel, Hopper, Aet
Wiz (1): STINK

I switch to TUF, bringing him back into contention and removing Mark from the stable five-way.

Quote

TUF (3): BridgeBoi, Terris, Kas
Mark (1): Sart
Hopper (3): Storm, Illwei, Wiz
Aet (2): Ash, TUF
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (3): Steel, Hopper, Aet
Wiz (1): STINK

Eight minutes later, Wiz moves to TUF because he doesn't like the three-way tie. If you felt TUF was more suss than Storm, why vote Hopper btw?

Quote

TUF (4): BridgeBoi, Terris, Kas, Wiz
Mark (1): Sart
Hopper (2): Storm, Illwei
Aet (2): Ash, TUF
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (3): Steel, Hopper, Aet
Wiz (1): STINK

Ash swaps from Aet to TUF. This consolidates into a three-way.

Quote

TUF (5): BridgeBoi, Terris, Kas, Wiz, Ash
Mark (1): Sart
Hopper (2): Storm, Illwei
Aet (1): TUF
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (3): Steel, Hopper, Aet
Wiz (1): STINK

Storm shortly after that shifts from Hopper to TUF. This is bussing volume lmao. We now have a two-way with the TUF train being a runaway train.

Quote

TUF (6): BridgeBoi, Terris, Kas, Wiz, Ash, Storm
Mark (1): Sart
Hopper (1): Illwei
Aet (1): TUF
BridgeBoi (1): Illwei
Storm (3): Steel, Hopper, Aet
Wiz (1): STINK

Illwei votes Storm and casts shade on the TUF train. Sart meanwhile moves to Hopper, which...is weird since he could theoretically save TUF here if he voted with TUF. V!Sart? Not sure.

Quote

TUF (6): BridgeBoi, Terris, Kas, Wiz, Ash, Storm
Hopper (1): Sart
Aet (1): TUF
Storm (4): Steel, Hopper, Aet, Illwei
Wiz (1): STINK

TUF moves to Storm to self-pres. This gets us close to an actual tie.

Quote

TUF (6): BridgeBoi, Terris, Kas, Wiz, Ash, Storm
Hopper (2): Sart, Aet
Storm (4): Steel, Hopper, Illwei, TUF
Wiz (1): STINK

Aet switches to Hopper. Then back to Storm, in time for the flip.

Quote

TUF (6): BridgeBoi, Terris, Kas, Wiz, Ash, Storm
Hopper (1): Sart
Storm (4): Steel, Hopper, Illwei, TUF, Aet
Wiz (1): STINK

Jo, Drake, and Mark didn't vote.

tldr;

-Probably at most two Elims in <TUF, Mark, Hopper, Aet, Storm>
-Corollary: probably at most two Elims in <TUF, Mark, Hopper, Storm.> (I say this and yet still distrust Aet lmao.)
-Hopper/Storm probably not E/E. More willing to believe E!Hopper, V!Storm - I did not like the OMGUS energy from one of Hopper's posts and I think I'm now overcredencing on an early Hopper post.
-Mark???
-Would like to know why @The Wandering Wizard thought TUF was more sus than Storm but voted Hopper.
- @Sart - What's your thought process behind a Hopper vote you knew would do nothing?
-Terris/Wiz not E/E

Edited March 27, 2025 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@|TJ| Bhai, where does this fall in terms of OoA - can Jo be Stilled and inactivity removed at the same time? How will you decide between Drake and Jo if you only have one PH?

Sure, I'll say yes to the first question. 

Coinflip tbh. Both are requiring substitution at the same time. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, |TJ| said:

Sure, I'll say yes to the first question. 

Coinflip tbh. Both are requiring substitution at the same time. 

Ty bhai.

I'll stay on Jo and keep him at a single vote.

I assume the distribution we want is something like this:

Quote

BridgeBoi (dead last; no one vote BridheBoi) -> Jo (next) -> Sart, Steel, Terris?

This way we avoid issues with BridgeBoi's passive, have Jo take the Stilling since it's unlikely TJ gets a PH (I could be wrong I guess, maybe y'all check the situation or ask TJ if he has a PH an hour from rollover) and keep Sart/Steel/Terris in the running for now?

I'll try to wake up in time but imma be real with y'all, I'm trying to establish a healthier relationship with SE and only do what I'm in the mood to, and waking up early for rollover ain't it, though miracles can happen.

[Illwei]

Fmpov TUN felt like the exe that was going to happen. You can say there was discussion besides him, but I'd say it didn't really matter when the talk of the last night/day existed. 

Imo this does point to more people pushing him or being silent being elims. 

Hopper is someone who i think elim equity rises with TUNs flip, ill pull reciepts when I'm back on comp and not sitting out here in the cold waiting for my friend to return my car keys that she confiscated last night. 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Fmpov TUN felt like the exe that was going to happen. You can say there was discussion besides him, but I'd say it didn't really matter when the talk of the last night/day existed. 

I think the reason I don't agree is the votes spent an awful lot of time parked on anyone who wasn't TUN. It felt like there was a very real possibility it wasn't gonna just, result in mechanically flipping TUN. A lot of D2 was focused on looking at other people. If anything, the Night's talk doesn't even feel relevant because everyone was looking at non-TUN holes. Even Aet who was like "TUN just needs to die" pretty much never voted TUN.

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Hopper is someone who i think elim equity rises with TUNs flip, ill pull reciepts when I'm back on comp and not sitting out here in the cold waiting for my friend to return my car keys that she confiscated last night. 

I'd like to see those because I'm coming around to E!Hopper after the post where Hopper kind of aggros Storm for voting him I think.

[Illwei]

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Even Aet who was like "TUN just needs to die" pretty much never voted TUN.

Which mildly sets off bells for me, but it seems you're pulling them out of PoE? 

27 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'd like to see those because I'm coming around to E!Hopper after the post where Hopper kind of aggros Storm for voting him I think.

Ill be honest that was the big one for me lol

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

-Would like to know why @The Wandering Wizard thought TUF was more sus than Storm but voted Hopper.

They were acting really weird in our doc and I was doing giving them a pass for being a new player and was hoping to see their reaction but they then disappeared so I would be happy to vote them again. 

My doc has been highly inactive so I suspect at least one elim or possibly two though that would be weird unless there is six elims which is also unlikely so probably not. And I think Hopper is more likely evil than our Sitter. 

@ThatOneWorldhopper + sitter what do you think about me claiming? Cuz I'm probably going to claim before the end of the night as I believe it will help explain my actions and my sitter's actions.

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Which mildly sets off bells for me, but it seems you're pulling them out of PoE? 

If I assume it's weird for TUN to voluntarily vote his teammate into an already-existing four-way, then I'd take him out. If I assume most of the four-way was clean and in distancing mode, then Aet's back in. But independently of the voting, I don't feel comfortable with V!Aet tbvh. Both Ash and I believe Aet stays in via NKA, and this was partly behind why Ash and I agreed to flip TUF in our Ajah - we had doubts about Aet, felt Aet was largely pushing against a TUF exe despite being okay with it on paper, and I had my doubts about the Hopper train feeling very static/dead.

So I guess what I'm saying is, honestly no, I have my doubts despite my read of the voting.

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Ill be honest that was the big one for me lol

Lol. Yeah, same.

[Aeternum]

10 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

(... I take it back, I have no idea what this means.)

Idt = I don't think

fwiw = for what it's worth

10 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Eh, maybe - but if the idea was to get the votes close enough to entice an Elim to swap the votes, are you sure you could then back-swap before the cycle closed? Because right now you're the closest to doing so.

I was keeping tabs on the page, but I was fine with either flip, given I read both as elims.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

*I think Aet is overcredencing on the idea that someone bussed. In an E!Aet world, I think that's deliberate. I think bussing is possible but my understanding from Drake is that it's just a lot more aggressively a thing on MU than here, and I'm not convinced that a bus happened terribly early because the exes were competitive until late in the cycle. The main thing that appears potentially of concern here for D1 is, as Aet noted, that Polly could have self-presed and seems to have made a Choice not to do so.

It might just be that I'm used to looking for bussers and I'm used to assuming someone bussed. Bussing, as it turns out, leads to elims winning a lot. Last time I lowered my standards here for assuming if there was a bus or not, there was someone who bussed and they won. So I'm assuming bussing up to what I'm used to.

Also because TUF was consensus at end of n1 / start of d2. Elims likely assumed he was very likely to die, and don't know about anyone else, but I would bus TUF there. Given that the wagon took off again close to end of d2, I expect there was someone bussing a dying slot, basically.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Repeating my call for Sitters and people in Ajahs to talk about what elections were like in their Ajah

The impression I got was "oh no we need a Sitter"

Mark by the looks of it was fine with electing our Sitter as long as they could engage with the thread enough (my slot at this point was inactive so didn't have a say in it). There wasn't really much to it? No one seemed to really want to be the Sitter.

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think the reason I don't agree is the votes spent an awful lot of time parked on anyone who wasn't TUN. It felt like there was a very real possibility it wasn't gonna just, result in mechanically flipping TUN. A lot of D2 was focused on looking at other people. If anything, the Night's talk doesn't even feel relevant because everyone was looking at non-TUN holes. Even Aet who was like "TUN just needs to die" pretty much never voted TUN.

Fmpov, TUF was always going to die, whether that was d2 or d3. Even if thread wasn't voting TUF the entire time, it was unsurprising that TUF still ended up being the flip off of the direction thread started it, and how it got brought back around to that point. TUF imo was a dying slot. Hence why I expect bussing.

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Fmpov, TUF was always going to die, whether that was d2 or d3. Even if thread wasn't voting TUF the entire time, it was unsurprising that TUF still ended up being the flip off of the direction thread started it, and how it got brought back around to that point. TUF imo was a dying slot. Hence why I expect bussing.

7 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

It might just be that I'm used to looking for bussers and I'm used to assuming someone bussed. Bussing, as it turns out, leads to elims winning a lot. Last time I lowered my standards here for assuming if there was a bus or not, there was someone who bussed and they won. So I'm assuming bussing up to what I'm used to.

Also because TUF was consensus at end of n1 / start of d2. Elims likely assumed he was very likely to die, and don't know about anyone else, but I would bus TUF there. Given that the wagon took off again close to end of d2, I expect there was someone bussing a dying slot, basically.

I'm tired so I'm just gonna lay it out straight: I can respect that you and Illwei have a different evaluation of the votestate and possibly a better one, given I'm not very good at being Elim. But this didn't feel like a situation that required a bus out the gate and had a dead cycle for part of it. Even if TUF eventually being exed was unsurprising, it didn't seem inevitable, and the two are different. Particularly with you coming in and casting doubt on the backing behind the TUF train as follows:

On 3/26/2025 at 4:51 AM, Aeternum said:

Feeling slightly concerned about the way people are accepting moving away from TUF in a way that makes me think a lot of people did not have a real reason to be voting or pushing TUF other than "wow consensus". Which is concerning, but I'm not sure how concerning I find it right now.

I support a TUF vote partially for threadstate reasons, and a TwinStorm vote. Will likely vote there later, but I'd still like there to be more pressure on STINK, who has been way too under the radar imo. Would extend this to apply to Drake, but he's just completely not here so not worth pushing rn.

I'm concerned the first paragraph subtly undermines the reasons behind any vote on TUF, implying that it was a blind sheep train rather than a reasoned train. I don't feel the second paragraph really changes that, especially given where your votes went and the fact attention didn't really return to TUF there.

So the first question in my head is which of us better captures how the Elims saw the cycle.

The second question in my head, coupled with where you were in the votes and your general position on the D2 voting, is whether you're trying to then get us to doubt players who should really just be softcleared from their votes. I don't disagree bussing is possible but I think that you setting the agenda for a busser hunt is also a good way to deny us the ability to just solidly use info from the voting to narrow down PoE. The busser hunt forces us to re-expand it and go back to ground zero. It's FUD tactics writ large. It can be Village mindset motivated but I just don't like what that means for you in particular in terms of where you are and what you're doing.

Theoretically you could say I should feel the same about Illwei and I kind of would, but Gaewei voted D1 to bring Polly back into contention in the three-way, and that seems to have more Village credit to it.

My other issue is that despite the busser hunt and the PoE issues, you're...also kind of still 100% locked on V!Terris and I really don't super buy that. Maybe I'm not much of a post reader (true) but I struggle to see that being consistent with someone who is self-admittedly very paranoid.

In an E!you world, this could, to be fair, still be an attempt to build doubt on V!Terris by supporting Terris to the hilt. I think I'm too tired to work that out. (I will agree rationally Terris has voted out two Elims so if there's a Sitter I'm more willing to vote for Amyrlin, it should be Terris, but I think the decision should be delayed as long as possible. As an aside, I now agree with Terris about getting BridgeBoi's passive life burned because the fewer Sitters there are, the less room we have to work around the passive. Unless we think Bridge is gonna look super Village into the future, it's better to resolve the passive now.)

But yeah. Basically I accept you can argue it comes from your read of the threadstate and it is a fair point that Illwei agrees with you, but it's a conjunction of things I don't like about you, and the fact that the busser hunt is functionally FUD doesn't make me much happier with the situation.

I have a sneaking suspicion I'm paranoiding too much, nonetheless I'm kind of just done for the night due to exhaustion and meds making me groggy. I would also agree with Hopper sus, and...yeah no not gonna try to offer a readslist while groggy, I feel that's just a recipe for disaster. I guess I'm gonna leave it at that.

Goodnight everyone.

[Aeternum]

Terrisman is my Ajah's Sitter and he is extremely pure from our talks in doc. A lot of his thoughts in thread directly reflect our talks in doc, and he can confirm this. If I'm feeling confident in a read, that's generally rare and it's a very high level of confidence overall lol. If you care, I'm not 100% confident, and there are dumb things I am paranoid of.

Idt Terris should be elected for Seat, and I do not think Seat should basically ever be elected when we are winning, and town wincon is exe all elims, and has nothing to do with the Seat. Don't really know what benefits the Seat gives and whether it's worth it, but if we are really crushing the elims, I don't see why we should give them a chance when they have wincons involving the Seat election.

If you don't think elims bussed, you're looking at v!TwinStorm wagon having multiple elims most likely, because e!TwinStorm means there should 100% be at least one elim bussing. Or elims were inactive, given how many people felt like they just didn't show up yesterday.

I dunno. You might have a better idea of what some individual players would do in that situation given you have more experience with them, but I am very used to bussers, so I assume bussing. Our views on threadstate probably don't match up because of that, and threadstate to me felt like TUF was always getting bussed there if elim. If I was an elim in that situation, where TUF felt like a dying slot, I would bus TUF to the ground and take the credit, and probably tell me team to. If I were TUF, I would tell my team to bus me in that situation. I am used to bussing wins games.

Elims getting crushed rn, and with two elim flips in a row this early, I would assume elims are going to set someone up deep, which bussing achieves. If elims felt like TUF was going to die, which was seeming very likely n1 and d2, then they likely had someone bus. TUF felt more like walking into an elim exe, don't know how to phrase it, but thread sort of just went along with the kill.

I'm willing to hear you out if you can paint a good picture of how elims saw the cycle in a way that means they didn't bus, it's just something I personally can't see and I'm not used to seeing. imo TUF wasn't really going to be alive very long, and I think elims likely would recognized that when TUF was catching pressure late d1 and throughout n1. It's hard for me to see a world where elims saw TUF was in danger of dying (and was getting Stilled), after losing an elim d1, and didn't either distance or make an attempt to save TUF. There was a series of votes where TUF went from top wagon to having one vote, and then back to 5 or something votes. If the final wagon was pure, then TwinStorm is basically always town and elims likely stacked on TwinStorm, assuming activity. Having to factor in Maybe Elims Just Weren't There is kind of throwing me off but w/e.

I'm just not willing to clear anyone for voting TUF given the way I saw the exe go down.

Since you do know better here specifically, you probably know whether certain players would be more likely to bus or not, given I'm modeling what I think the elims would do off of what I am used to seeing, which is not drawn from players or games here. So shrugs, I am willing to look at what you believe the elim mindset was yesterday and compare it to what I think, because I'm probably not completely accurate on the threadstate. I just don't see it in another way rn, and if you do, I'm not seeing what you're seeing.

Edited March 27, 2025 by Aeternum
added a missing word

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just a note that we do need to vote today for the Seat.

Why do people want BridgeBoi Stilled, besides to just take out the extra life? They've been pretty Null for me. 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Hmmm well I'm Green Ajah and it's been pretty dead and Hopper has been fairly suspicious in our doc leading to my suspicion of them.

Steel cuz I don’t see any votes for them yet and they're one sitter I want to keep in power.

[Terrisman]

44 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Just a note that we do need to vote today for the Seat.

Why do people want BridgeBoi Stilled, besides to just take out the extra life? They've been pretty Null for me. 

Cuz it will take out the extra life which is pretty dangerous. Why would you specifically vote for them?

[Illwei]

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Mark by the looks of it was fine with electing our Sitter as long as they could engage with the thread enough

Honestly no other thoughts about mark, if true then mark gets a bigger village read from me.

EDIT:

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Just a note that we do need to vote today for the Seat.

Why do people want BridgeBoi Stilled, besides to just take out the extra life? They've been pretty Null for me. 

Do you feel that the other sitters are more suspicious than him? 

Also that Aet wall was towny sue me

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, Terrisman said:

Cuz it will take out the extra life which is pretty dangerous. Why would you specifically vote for them?

Because if BB is Village, them being temporarily unkillable is fine? And I haven’t seen any reason to think they’re Elim.

24 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Do you feel that the other sitters are more suspicious than him? 

Also that Aet wall was towny sue me

Sart, mainly. Maybe Jo, but since Jo’s slated for a PH and my Sitter it’s hard for me to tell.

But also if votes are where I think they are, leaving BB as the lowest could start Stilling basically anyone, and I don’t want a random Stilling on Steel or Terrisman.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Because if BB is Village, them being temporarily unkillable is fine? And I haven’t seen any reason to think they’re Elim.

Sart, mainly. Maybe Jo, but since Jo’s slated for a PH and my Sitter it’s hard for me to tell.

But also if votes are where I think they are, leaving BB as the lowest could start Stilling basically anyone, and I don’t want a random Stilling on Steel or Terrisman.

Then why not vote for which of those you want to keep their sitter position? Cuz right now everyone is at danger except for BB

[Sart he/him]

Don't really have time for a vote count, but I think this is a five way tie! Sheesh. As tempting as it is to let it rand, and let myself have better odds at eventually becoming Sitter, I don't think that's the wise play. I'll vote for Terrisman. Good play from a newcomer, and I'd like to see it rewarded.