Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[Terrisman]

3 minutes ago, Sart said:

Don't really have time for a vote count, but I think this is a five way tie! Sheesh. As tempting as it is to let it rand, and let myself have better odds at eventually becoming Sitter, I don't think that's the wise play. I'll vote for Terrisman. Good play from a newcomer, and I'd like to see it rewarded.

Thanks!!

30 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Because if BB is Village, them being temporarily unkillable is fine? And I haven’t seen any reason to think they’re Elim.

Sart, mainly. Maybe Jo, but since Jo’s slated for a PH and my Sitter it’s hard for me to tell.

But also if votes are where I think they are, leaving BB as the lowest could start Stilling basically anyone, and I don’t want a random Stilling on Steel or Terrisman.

Honestly I think it makes more sense to lose that immunity because you aren’t saying he’s village, your only saying you don’t have a negative read. Don’t save him to spare me

[|TJ| he/him]

Time!

[|TJ| he/him]

Day 3 - Exodus

Sierin didn't even have to do anything during the night, since a lot of people left on their own. 

John Steel tried not to run for his life. He remained as still as he possibly could as they levelled accusations against him and yet, they did not accuse him of the biggest thing they could. So he stood their and took all their suspicion and accepted to be Stilled. Much better than the alternative, and he still gets to be in the Tower!

***

Kasimir has been killed! They were from the Hall of the Tower!
A Jo in the Bush had to leave the city! They were from the Hall of the Tower!
DrakeMarshall had to leave the city! They were from the Black Ajah!
Steeldancer has been Stilled!

Vote Count:

Quote

Terrisman (2): Aeternum, Sart
Steeldancer (1): The Wandering Wizard
BridgeBoi (1): Ashbringer
Sart (1): Terrisman
Joe (1): Kasimir

@Mark IV would be getting an inactivity warning.

Day 3 has now begun and will end on 29th March, 2025 at 23:00 hrs GMT. Get voting!

Sitters:

Spoiler

Sart - Sitter of the Green Ajah
Terrisman - Sitter of the Grey Ajah
BridgeBoi - Sitter of the Blue Ajah

Players:

Spoiler

1. @The Wandering Wizard - Evelyn Rosemary
2. KelsierApologist - Coprolite Black Ajah
3. @TwinStorm - Melian
4. @Aeternum
5. @Ashbringer
6. @Steeldancer - John Steel
7. Kasimir - Kamil Lovric Hall of the Tower
8. The Unknown Flame - Verde Black Ajah
9. @ThatOneWorldhopper - Alkarii Tay'TerTüne
10. DrakeMarshall - Black Ajah
11. @Mark IV
12. @BridgeBoi - Taimon
13. @Terrisman - Terri
14. Teldris Anuar - Tesan Alruddin Hall of the Tower
15. @Sart - Sartala
16. @STINK - Rasmuht
17. @Illwei
18. A Jo in the Bush - Emmett Hall of the Tower

Edited March 30, 2025 by |TJ|

[TwinStorm He/Him]

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Day 3 - Exodus

Sierin didn't even have to do anything during the night, since a lot of people left on their own. 

John Steel tried not to run for his life. He remained as still as he possibly could as they levelled accusations against him and yet, they did not accuse him of the biggest thing they could. So he stood their and took all their suspicion and accepted to be Stilled. Much better than the alternative, and he still gets to be in the Tower!

***

Kasimir has been killed! They were from the Hall of the Tower!
A Jo in the Bush had to leave the city! They were from the Hall of the Tower!
DrakeMarshall had to leave the city! They were from the Black Ajah!
Steeldancer has been Stilled!

Vote Count:

@Mark IV would be getting an inactivity warning.

Day 3 has now begun and will end on 29th March, 2025 at 23:00 hrs GMT. Get voting!

Sitters:

  Hide contents

Sart - Sitter of the Green Ajah
Terrisman - Sitter of the Grey Ajah
BridgeBoi - Sitter of the Blue Ajah

Players:

  Hide contents

@The Wandering Wizard - Evelyn Rosemary KelsierApologist - Coprolite Black Ajah @TwinStorm - Melian @Aeternum @Ashbringer @Steeldancer - John Steel Kasimir - Kamil Lovric Hall of the Tower The Unknown Flame - Verde Black Ajah @ThatOneWorldhopper - Alkarii Tay'TerTüne DrakeMarshall - Black Ajah @Mark IV @BridgeBoi - Taimon @Terrisman - Terri Teldris Anuar - Tesan Alruddin Hall of the Tower @Sart - Sartala @STINK - Rasmuht @Illwei A Jo in the Bush - Emmett Hall of the Tower

wait

what

Drake was an elim

and . . . left?

okay

this is crazy

I mean, that's one less elim to smoke out

and Kas?

dang

what were his most previous suspicions?

and a sitter left too

AGH

Edited March 27, 2025 by TwinStorm

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

o7 Kas

I'll open with ThatoneWorldhopper, I feel they are very likely evil though I am also partial to an Ash vote. 

[Steeldancer he/him]

John sighed as the new day dawned. They had stilled him, removed him from his position of authority. 

And honestly, he couldn't be happier. He was fairly sure the attempted stilling hadn't done a thing to his ability to call on the power, though he still dared not to do so. The process of cutting a man off from the power was different, so for now, he was safe. And as he had recently learned, apparently Aes Sedai couldn't directly detect male channelers regardless. So... Now he had a great chance of getting away! No one could possibly suspect a thing. Honestly nobody would probably blame him for slipping away. There was just one problem, one thing keeping him in the tower. 

He didn't like the Black Ajah being around still. They had killed one too many good people. Though he suspected there weren't too many left. To that end, he identified the person he suspected most at the moment. 

Worldhopper, your vote patterns are shoddy and your vote logic even shoddier. J'ACCUSE! 

[BridgeBoi]

Can someone find drakes votes pattern? 

[TwinStorm He/Him]

2 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

o7 Kas

I'll open with ThatoneWorldhopper, I feel they are very likely evil though I am also partial to an Ash vote. 

TOW votes have seemed kinda flimsy in the past, especially the logic behind it

[Steeldancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, BridgeBoi said:

Can someone find drakes votes pattern? 

What voting pattern, he never said anything

[BridgeBoi]

Oh really shoot, then it’s going to be hard to find info from Drake as elim. Then who voted to kill Drake? Did anyone?

Right now I’m going to stick with my reads and vote for Twinstorm.  I’m sorry, brother. 

[Steeldancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, BridgeBoi said:

Oh really shoot, then it’s going to be hard to find info from Drake as elim. Then who voted to kill Drake? Did anyone?

Right now I’m going to stick with my reads and vote for Twinstorm.  I’m sorry, brother. 

So, you're assuming brown Ajah was entirely black

Also looks like I got stilled through RNG. Kinda lame imo

[TwinStorm He/Him]

2 minutes ago, BridgeBoi said:

Oh really shoot, then it’s going to be hard to find info from Drake as elim. Then who voted to kill Drake? Did anyone?

Right now I’m going to stick with my reads and vote for Twinstorm.  I’m sorry, brother. 

why?

[Aeternum]

43 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

DrakeMarshall had to leave the city! They were from the Black Ajah!

Kas I hope you're having fun with this one in dead doc

This is a weird scenario rn. We're probably down to 1-2 elims left. 12 players is 11 v 1 or 10 v 2 likely, so we are in a comfortable spot.

Kas was a universal kill and expected.

We're down to three Sitters, which probably means something in terms of electing the Seat soon.

Will think more later.

[BridgeBoi]

Um the Kas vote, and the sus interaction with Polly. Seemed like heavy drama there that was very unbelievable. I’m not super convinced that ur an elim. I would assign probability of 60/40 that ur elim.  But I don’t have a stronger read… 

Just now, BridgeBoi said:

11 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

why?

Um the Kas vote, and the sus interaction with Polly. Seemed like heavy drama there that was very unbelievable. I’m not super convinced that ur an elim. I would assign probability of 60/40 that ur elim.  But I don’t have a stronger read… 

 

[TwinStorm He/Him]

10 minutes ago, BridgeBoi said:

Um the Kas vote, and the sus interaction with Polly. Seemed like heavy drama there that was very unbelievable. I’m not super convinced that ur an elim. I would assign probability of 60/40 that ur elim.  But I don’t have a stronger read… 

 

Kas vote was cuz of control of doc, and you literally also voted for Kas, weak argument

Polly? idk what was up with her

[BridgeBoi]

11 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

Kas vote was cuz of control of doc, and you literally also voted for Kas, weak argument

Polly? idk what was up with her

Just bc I voted for Kas doesn’t mean that vote was a good one . I realized that my vote was bad, and that control of thread is a poor reason to kill someone. Therefore, I don’t trust anyone who would kill someone for thread control.

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

TOW votes have seemed kinda flimsy in the past, especially the logic behind it

You find the votes flimsy, yet you vote as well?

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Just now, Illwei said:

You find the votes flimsy, yet you vote as well?

no I saying TOW's votes and his logic

[Terrisman]

What Ajah was Drake in? He wasn’t Grey. My Ajah mates are Aeternum and Mark.

I also am asking @Sart would you ask your Ajah to Still BridgeBoi? 

[TwinStorm He/Him]

11 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

What Ajah was Drake in? He wasn’t Grey. My Ajah mates are Aeternum and Mark.

I also am asking @Sart would you ask your Ajah to Still BridgeBoi? 

why?

the only good reason was to get rid of his immunity, but in general, BB had a pretty !vlean to him, no real sussy interactions that im aware of

[Steeldancer he/him]

Honestly a small team with Drake being inactive would kind of explain how little pushback there's been on elim vote trains. 

[Terrisman]

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

why?

the only good reason was to get rid of his immunity, but in general, BB had a pretty !vlean to him, no real sussy interactions that im aware of

We are in a game we’re there’s a good chance at least two elims we’re bussed. They definitely went down more easily than I would have expected. At this point it looks like the most likely way that we lose is by electing a Black Ajah member or by electing and deposing a village sitter. Don’t you think that it makes sense that if we do decide that BB is a suspect he isn’t two days away from being eliminated? In addition, if the green use their ability on someone else, that leaves us with only two sitters which practically guarantees that someone will be elected because you no longer need a majority vote (unless we all do no vote. Is that an option TJ?)

edit: removed spaces

Edited March 28, 2025 by Terrisman

[Sart he/him]

8 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

We are in a game we’re there’s a good chance at least two elims we’re bussed. They definitely went down more easily than I would have expected. At this point it looks like the most likely way that we lose is by electing a Black Ajah member or by electing and deposing a village sitter. Don’t you think that it makes sense that if we do decide that BB is a suspect he isn’t two days away from being eliminated? In addition, if the green use their ability on someone else, that leaves us with only two sitters which practically guarantees that someone will be elected because you no longer need a majority vote (unless we all do no vote. Is that an option TJ?)

edit: removed spaces

That's assuming that both elims were bussed. That's not a guarantee. In fact, I don't even think it's likely at this point. We know on Day 1, TUF attempted to save his teammate. He made the vote 5 v 3. Polly never actually voted. If they had, that would make it 5 v 4. If there's a bus in that scenario, they could have flipped and made it 4 v 5, saving Polly. Is that likely? Well... at that point that's three elims on one train, which would look pretty unnatural. Is it possible there was a deep wolf operation going on? Sure. However, I don't think that's particularly likely at that point. If it was a deep wolf situation, I would look at you honestly. You're the only Sitter candidate who was on both trains.

I'm going to follow Kas's lead here, and vote for Aeternum. They could work as the final mafia candidate.

[Terrisman]

I’m going to vote on ASHBRINGER. I find that vote to save BridgeBoi from losing his immunity really weird. It was unnecessary and honestly illogical. You basically said that you would vote for him because people want to remove his immunity.

I’m going to go with the idea from now on that there may be 5 or 6 elims. To assume there are only 4 is pretty reckless. I think Ashbringer and BridgeBoi have both looked suspicious to me.

11 minutes ago, Sart said:

That's assuming that both elims were bussed. That's not a guarantee. In fact, I don't even think it's likely at this point. We know on Day 1, TUF attempted to save his teammate. He made the vote 5 v 3. Polly never actually voted. If they had, that would make it 5 v 4. If there's a bus in that scenario, they could have flipped and made it 4 v 5, saving Polly. Is that likely? Well... at that point that's three elims on one train, which would look pretty unnatural. Is it possible there was a deep wolf operation going on? Sure. However, I don't think that's particularly likely at that point. If it was a deep wolf situation, I would look at you honestly. You're the only Sitter candidate who was on both trains.

I'm going to follow Kas's lead here, and vote for Aeternum. They could work as the final mafia candidate.

It does make sense to take a closer look at me. If you do though, you’ll notice I was on those trains from the beginning. I guess that doesn’t clear me of deep wolf suspicion but then again very little will.

I am in a doc with Aeternum and don’t think he’s an elim. Just from the conversation it doesn’t seem like it. I can be wrong though. Maybe I’m being pocketed. But I don’t think he’s evil. 
Just some points to remember about Aet, he didn’t have the opportunity to push for sitter nomination because he took over Experience after the sitters were elected 

Also, was Drake in your Ajah?

[Aeternum]

It's 4-5 elims likely, meaning 1-2 left. Just keep killing elims until we win. We have somewhere around 4+ misexes here so I don't care that much, but it's likely the Seat thing is more important (and more likely to elim wincon rn over outnumbering town), and that's within the next two cycles or something like that, I don't really care to figure it out.

1 hour ago, Sart said:

could have flipped and made it 4 v 5, saving Polly. Is that likely?

They would've needed to be online. There's 1-2 elims with varying amounts of activity, who may have just Not Been Around at EoD1.

Elims knew they were losing TUF at some point. Drake was inactive so they were effectively short an elim since d1, and Drake was likely just completely not around at all during n1/d2. Fmpov elims always should bus TUF there to set up a deepwolf, especially if there is only one elim left. They're basically soloing, given TUF was likely always dying at some point, Drake was missing, and KelsierApologist died d1. I don't really see a world where TUF didn't get bussed, unless there are multiple players on the TUF wagon who are known to not have a bussing meta and aren't comfortable with bussing. I personally love bussing so idk why someone wouldn't like that, and TUF gave elim who asked to get bussed vibes.

I dunno, I would've bussed TUF because that's how you set up for endgame. You're not going to win by siding with an elim who is always going to die at some point. Unless anyone wants to argue that TUF was magically going to get townread and survive, because I doubt that given TUF had basically given up d2 and posted a defensive post and that's it. Maybe my logic is just not correct for this site, but like. Bus and set up as deepwolf to win feels really straightforward to me and I just cannot see it any other way. It feels like I'm talking in circles about it at this point, and no one has given me a worldview that seems viable and explains a no bussing world, other than Kas being paranoid of me, since Kas never responded to me before dying.

Spoiler

Kasimir (2): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Sart
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

Kasimir (3): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, BridgeBoi
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

Kasimir (4): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
KelsierApologist (1): The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
KelsierApologist (2): The Wandering Wizard, A Jo in the Bush
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

DrakeMarshall (2): Ashbringer, A Jo in the Bush
Kasimir (2): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi
KelsierApologist (2): Wandering Wizard, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
Illwei (1): Sart

KelsierApologist (3): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
DrakeMarshall (3): Ashbringer, A Jo in the Bush, Steeldancer
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (4): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei, Steeldancer
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
DrakeMarshall (2): Ashbringer, A Jo in the Bush
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (5): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei, Steeldancer, Ashbringer
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

Will look at d2 later as in probably never.

If you assume no bussing d1, probably just kill TwinStorm lol.

If you assume no bussing d2, you probably clear TwinStorm and burn the entire wagon from what I remember, pretty sure TwinStorm is always town in no bussing worlds on d2 as cw.

Edit:

Something Ash said d1 crossed my mind about the way people reacted to Ash voting Drake, so:

Post from Sart voting Gaea after Gaea voted Drake. From Terrisman loosely, since Gaea had unvoted Drake by then. Here is where Ash votes Drake, and then there's ThatOneWorldhopper's response here which is um. A response. Maybe just kill this ngl.

Ash/Wizard probably both town, Wizard is probably more likely a deepwolf, I dunno, people need to explain some reasoning behind their votes a bit more. Don't really trust myself to read Sart rn because I know I am biased towards people who vote me.

Thought that crossed my mind is that Sitters probably have more incentive to bus than non-Sitters, for whatever that means.

Edited March 28, 2025 by Aeternum