Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[STINK he/him]

My set theory leads to a clear conclusion that Aeternum has some explaining to do

[Sart he/him]

Sartala hated this weakness. It was infuriating being Stilled, unable to feel the Power at her fingertips. Well, if her magic was gone, she had to use her words now. Only half of them were left now. It was time to do some analysis, looking at all the alive players.

• TwinStorm: She was one of the newest sisters. In her view, the most interesting part about TwinStorm was Day 2. There, she had become the counter train to TUF. There had been a lot of discussion about a potential bus on Day 2. However, with one Black Ajah dead, and another in danger in elimination, she didn't know if that bore out. However, they were the latest vote on TUF, plus a late vote from TUF to try and save themselves. That read bad. Could the Elims truly be concentrated in the Brown Ajah?
• Aeternum: Their votes stank. They had avoided all of the trains on Elims. She supposed she was also guilty of that crime, so it wasn't conclusive evidence. While she was relying on their vote count post for analysis, Sartala wished they had actually said something. Yes, you've outlined the votes. What is your conclusion from that?
• Ashbringer: On the other hand, their votes were fairly accurate. She noted a link between BridgeBoi and Ash. Ash had made several votes trying to preserve them as Sitter. If it was a five person team, that could be the link. Sartala didn't really want to pursue that. With 5 elims and an alternate win condition for them, that felt slightly unbalanced. She thought they would be a single evil player left.
• Steeldancer: Her highest trust at this point. John (odd name for a Sister) had been consistent with their votes, and insightful in their posting. She trusted them.
• BridgeBoi: One of the two Sitter candidates. Not who she would elect. The younger players were hard for her to read. Had been linked to TwinStorm by real life connections. She thought it was fog of war with a new player affecting the votes.
• Terrisman: The other Sitter candidate. She wanted to trust them so badly. A small part of her brain kept worrying about a Sitter bussing two teammates. She didn't think that was the case, but it was an annoying worm in her ear.
• STINK: The always terse one. She wanted something from them, and she supposed they were providing with a vote this time. She wished for elaboration. How likely was someone that quiet to be the last elim.
• Illwei: She had a much better view of them before the Pinch Hitting, but that was enough for her. She trusted them, and they were actually active. That counted for something nowadays.

Sartala, upon analyzing the votes, had decided on a takedown between TwinStorm and Aeternum. For this round, she was going to go with TwinStorm. This might have been too meta, but she suspected the entire Brown Ajah was corrupted. She had been complaining that electing a village Sitter seemed less than powerful. All they got was the power to look into the docs. That's not that useful. However, there was one scenario where that power would be extremely useful. If an entire doc was consisting of Black Ajah, that would obviously look suspicious. They would have to fake village conversation, and it would just seem awkward. Therefore, her vote was going on the remaining Brown Ajah member. If not them, probably Aeternum at that point. Then she would look at a team of Ash and BridgeBoi.

[BridgeBoi]

I’m going to stay the course and keep voting on Twinstorm. The same reasons as before and in addition, voting to kill Steel is sus. Also I suspect he might be trying to earn my favor by voting me for seat.

[Aeternum]

I don't usually do extensive VCA, I check my reads against VCs to make sure they make sense. If I actually... had enough reads I could check against VCs. I got the VCs and went to sleep because I was exhausted.

If TwinStorm is town, probably look at Illwei next. Think Ash and Terrisman are town. Everyone else not really sure, have some gth reads but doesn't really matter.

I can't read low content posters so STINK could just be town who just is not very findable to me, but I'd like to hear why exactly my Ajah is not pure.

I remember thinking I disliked Steeldancer's posts last night, so I am fairly surprised Steeldancer is Sart's top town.

Spoiler

Blue: BridgeBoi (Sitter), Drake, Stink

Yellow: Jo (Sitter), Kasimir, Ashbringer 

White: Steeldancer (Sitter), Teldris, Illwei

Brown: TUF (Sitter), TwinStorm, KelsierApologist 

Grey: Terrisman (Sitter), Aeternum, Mark

Green: Sart (Sitter), Hopper, Wizard

I had thoughts related to this but it's basically just that my reads mean that Grey and Yellow would both be pure here.

I would be slightly surprised if BridgeBoi was elected as Sitter in a world where both Drake and STINK are elims, I think? @BridgeBoi could you elaborate a bit on what happened with the votes again? I don't feel like hunting through pages to find it.

[Terrisman]

I am honestly torn. I’ve sort of been assuming Aeternum was town now for a while. However, I recently have been taking a closer look at things and I’m honestly not sure why. I’ve started coming to the conclusion that he may have pocketed me. I’m not confident that that is what happened but I am concerned. Part of my concern is that I feel emotionally connected and feel really bad voting for him. So for now Aeternum. 

[BridgeBoi]

42 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I don't usually do extensive VCA, I check my reads against VCs to make sure they make sense. If I actually... had enough reads I could check against VCs. I got the VCs and went to sleep because I was exhausted.

If TwinStorm is town, probably look at Illwei next. Think Ash and Terrisman are town. Everyone else not really sure, have some gth reads but doesn't really matter.

I can't read low content posters so STINK could just be town who just is not very findable to me, but I'd like to hear why exactly my Ajah is not pure.

I remember thinking I disliked Steeldancer's posts last night, so I am fairly surprised Steeldancer is Sart's top town.

  Reveal hidden contents

Blue: BridgeBoi (Sitter), Drake, Stink

Yellow: Jo (Sitter), Kasimir, Ashbringer 

White: Steeldancer (Sitter), Teldris, Illwei

Brown: TUF (Sitter), TwinStorm, KelsierApologist 

Grey: Terrisman (Sitter), Aeternum, Mark

Green: Sart (Sitter), Hopper, Wizard

I had thoughts related to this but it's basically just that my reads mean that Grey and Yellow would both be pure her

I would be slightly surprised if BridgeBoi was elected as Sitter in a world where both Drake and STINK are elims, I think? @BridgeBoi could you elaborate a bit on what happened with the votes again? I don't feel like hunting through pages to find it.

I said the others shouldn’t vote for me because I am inexperienced, Drake nominated me because I didn’t want to be elected, and Stink agreed. If I remember right…

[Ashbringer he/him]

I personally thought Drake not going for the nomination was an oddball, but Drake also is a fan of chaos theory + was inactive + with E!Drake E!TUF they may have not wanted to swarm the Sitters.

Stink I wouldn't expect to go for Sitter regardless of alignment. Stink is very... Stink. Not power hungry, I guess. But I also don't think I've ever managed to play with E!Stink in recent memory.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Vote Count:

Steeldancer: 1 (TwinStorm)

TwinStorm: 3 (Ashbringer, Bridgeboi, Sart)

Aeternum: 2 (STINK, Terrisman)

[Terrisman]

The more I think about it, the more confident I am that Aet is an elim. If he pockets me, after Kas was gone he could basically use me to get rid of whomever he wanted. 

[Aeternum]

My Sitter is betraying me and doesn't even have a real reason to vote me 

I don't threadpull so me pocketing you does not allow me to just kill whoever I want. Why am I an elim, Terrisman? Outside of "oh no I think I'm getting pocketed", go write a case. Go find a real reason.

Noted on the Drake/STINK thing - I slightly lean towards STINK being more likely town off of it still because in a world of e/e/v in their doc, I feel like they would be trying to pocket BridgeBoi? And I think it would be fairly easy for them to just nominate each other and get BridgeBoi to go along with it, and elims having Sitters is more important to their wincon.

Ftr at least one Ajah should be pure (even if two more elims), if no one noticed already.

[Illwei]

@Ashbringer

 My phone won't let me get rid of this tag so it stays

I don't know why I thought it was still 2 people alive. Also doesn't the election not need a majority anymore just plurality? Which means we elect a seat tonight regardless. 

I don't know truly where I want to go right now other than not Aet. 

Aet, Steel, Ash, Bridgeboi i all trust to various degrees. 

Twinstorm

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

@Ashbringer

 My phone won't let me get rid of this tag so it stays

Hey, what's... oh.

2 hours ago, Terrisman said:

The more I think about it, the more confident I am that Aet is an elim. If he pockets me, after Kas was gone he could basically use me to get rid of whomever he wanted. 

... as much as I absolutely don't trust Aeternum, I don't think Aet pocketing you to push people via your doc is as dangerous as you think it is. 

Or as a corollary, as much as I trust you, I'm not of the mind to follow you to exe Steel or someone over my own suspicions 

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Why am I an elim, Terrisman? Outside of "oh no I think I'm getting pocketed", go write a case. Go find a real reason.

You're not voting yet - what's your opinion on the TwinStorm push? Because you've voted them twice already this game.

 

I'm not going to try to do NKA on Kasimir, because honestly I think any Elim would recognize at that point they need to take him out. Wiz is a bit more interesting.

So far Wiz has voted on Polly (Elim), TUF (Elim), TOW but not finally (Village), and Ashbringer (... Village, thank you very much). During N3 so far I mentioned I trusted Wiz-ish, and Wiz voted Sart for Seat. Wiz also didn't do much / didn't come up much D3 (voted TOW->Ash, V!read by Aet but thought a possible deepwolf), and was discussed a bit more N2 by Kas as a generally-trusted individual.

I'd say they were a fairly low-info kill - no one had voted Wiz except STINK, and they were fairly trusted but not super explicitly stated to be or not. Which to some degree follows from the Teldris kill, and... well, killing Kas is kind of a low info kill. Ish. By the associative property or something.

It also, I'll admit, seems like a kill I'd do. Which maybe someone like Illwei would pick up on, idk. But no one's been "aha Ash must have killed Wiz" so, not much from my PoV.

 

So what else is there?

We still haven't necessarily solved the N1 Teldris kill. It could have been TUF, maybe. But it wouldn't be Drake. My list for the potential killers was TwinStorm, Aeternum, BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Sart - which is most of the people still around, unfortunately, but notably excludes Gaea-Illwei if we think it's solidly only 4 elims (and trust my judgement, and trust TUF wouldn't kill Teldris). Kas's list took out TwinStorm and put in STINK instead. And we can't exe BB or Terris anyway, but it's still a set category I like.

Then there's a few sample worlds to look at.

E! vs V!Twinstorm VoteCounts (not all of them, just ones from Aet's that seem relevant)

Spoiler

D1:

Kasimir (2): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Sart
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

Kasimir (4): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
KelsierApologist (2): The Wandering Wizard, A Jo in the Bush
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (3): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei,
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
DrakeMarshall (3): Ashbringer, A Jo in the Bush, Steeldancer
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (5): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei, Steeldancer, Ashbringer
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

 

D2:

TUF (2): BridgeBoi, The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): Terrisman, TwinStorm
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): Terrisman, TwinStorm, Illwei
TUF (2): BridgeBoi, The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum

TUF (4): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard
TwinStorm (3): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
Mark IV (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

TUF (5): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer
TwinStorm (3): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (1): TUF
Mark IV (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

TUF (6): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer, TwinStorm
TwinStorm (5): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum, Illwei, TUF
ThatOneWorldhopper (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

 

D3:

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): The Wandering Wizard, Steeldancer, TwinStorm
TwinStorm (1): BridgeBoi

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): Steeldancer, TwinStorm, Aeternum
Illwei (2): Ashbringer, ThatOneWorldhopper
TwinStorm (1): BridgeBoi
Aeternum (1): Sart
Steeldancer (1): Terrisman
Ashbringer (1): The Wandering Wizard

 

So if it's E!TwinStorm, TwinStorm was the final counterwagon to both E!TUF D2 and one-ish to V!TOW D3. This would indicate that the Elim team lost cohesion almost immediately... which, if it's a four-person team with E!TS, makes sense. The Elims lost Polly, Drake was MIA, TUF was on the way out, there wasn't much of anything to stop a second push on E!TwinStorm. But to me it indicates that the Elims also heavily committed to exeing Kas D1 which is... very risky, especially for a team led by TUF. IMO E!TwinStorm would probably mean V!Terris, and probably E!Aeternum but I think I'm going to start seeing E!Aeternum wherever I look.

If it's V!TwinStorm, then there was a counterwagon to TUF, which... not sure how much that means. But it would indicate to me more E!Illwei.

 

Gah. @TwinStorm, you have anything to add?

[STINK he/him]

I think we're all eagerly anticipating TwinStorm's wise words that will elucidate this whole game

[Aeternum]

10 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

You're not voting yet - what's your opinion on the TwinStorm push? Because you've voted them twice already this game.

I'd flip TwinStorm for d2 wagons, partially. Feels a bit late to be making an info flip given the amount of inactivity modkills. Not really sure how much I feel TwinStorm flipping elim, realistically TwinStorm should've always flipped yesterday, I simply was not thinking enough. TwinStorm works as elim given wagons. I assume you would understand what to look at in a v!TwinStorm world on d2 wagons.

I trust BridgeBoi slightly over Terrisman here rn because Terrisman is opportunistic with that 180 on my slot. If Terrisman doesn't show up for the rest of day to answer my question, you should have concerns. If the Seat doesn't matter because of numbers, just elect whoever. If it does matter, gl I guess.

There's some Illwei/BridgeBoi world I'm too afraid of to be able to fully trust BridgeBoi atm. BridgeBoi/TwinStorm are likely unaligned.

Would be slightly worried about Steel getting so many TRs without any explanation.

If TwinStorm and I are v/v, game is probably over without looking at numbers. You should read through the game again at some point if you haven't already given how close to losing we are now, rip the big lead we had.

The n1 kill was clearly bait. The n2 kill was universal. The n3 kill I would look at anyone who cleared Wiz fairly quickly, maybe, but it felt like a reasonable kill given Wiz had good votes so I'm not inclined to read into it much.

I'm not self pressing, gl gl.

[Terrisman]

20 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

trust BridgeBoi slightly over Terrisman here rn because Terrisman is opportunistic with that 180 on my slot. If Terrisman doesn't show up for the rest of day to answer my question, you should have concerns. If the Seat doesn't matter because of numbers, just elect whoever. If it does matter, gl I guess.

Hey I am around. Just really busy so I haven’t posted much.

 What questions did you have? I’d be happy to answer them

[Aeternum]

15 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Why am I an elim, Terrisman? Outside of "oh no I think I'm getting pocketed", go write a case. Go find a real reason.

 

[Terrisman]

15 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Why am I an elim, Terrisman? Outside of "oh no I think I'm getting pocketed", go write a case. Go find a real reason

Oh, no actual question. So I don’t feel confident that you’re an elim, I just have suspicions.

Number one was that despite you saying certain people were suspicious you didn’t vote for them. The two elims that we removed you didn’t vote on. When you did vote with a train we lost Hopper who was village. From what it seems in our doc, I wouldn’t have taken you as someone who would assume Hopper was an elim. Your vote for Twinstorm today also feels like you just piling on wherever the village finds suspicious 

Secondly, you have acknowledged that you would vote for new players plus you are experienced enough to know that going for a low info NK could be confusing which is something I don’t think a new player would have realized. 
Third, just an analysis of the Ajahs. It’s hard for me to imagine that there are too many pure Ajahs and you seem the most likely BA candidate from the remaining clean Ajahs. 
I am pretty confident that there aren’t three BA in one Ajah and I doubt there are two Ajahs with two elims.

another point was in the doc you had a whole rant about how killing you is a mistake because your obvtown and how it always happens to you. Just seems a bit too fake to me.

So that’s is my case. 

12 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

as much as I absolutely don't trust Aeternum, I don't think Aet pocketing you to push people via your doc is as dangerous as you think it is. 

Either me or BridgeBoi are likely going to be elected Amyrlin and we will then have double votes. It can be more of a risk then you want

[Aeternum]

Given I am not voting right now and don't intend to, I suggest your rework your worldview. I have progression on ToW unlike your lack of progression on me, so your point there is null.

I am repeating, once again, that the n1 was very clearly a low info bait kill that makes perfect sense when TUF flipped elim, because the NK was meant to throw people off of voting TUF, and it did work, for a bit, before everyone went back to TUF. Reread d2, it is obvious that is what the kill was meant for.

I am obvious town  this just always happens because people apparently overestimate me and don't understand the way I play. e!me literally always busses - I both have a meta of bussing and I have very clearly stated that I expect bussing and am used to bussing, so you should be able to draw a conclusion of what e!me would do there reasonably.

Would probably give Seat to BridgeBoi. You'll be 6 v 1 or 5 v 2 tomorrow, so the Seat I believe will matter because it's not lylo and you'll have a vote night cycle or something, I dunno because I didn't read that part of the setup.

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I'd flip TwinStorm for d2 wagons, partially. Feels a bit late to be making an info flip given the amount of inactivity modkills. Not really sure how much I feel TwinStorm flipping elim, realistically TwinStorm should've always flipped yesterday, I simply was not thinking enough. TwinStorm works as elim given wagons. I assume you would understand what to look at in a v!TwinStorm world on d2 wagons.

I trust BridgeBoi slightly over Terrisman here rn because Terrisman is opportunistic with that 180 on my slot. If Terrisman doesn't show up for the rest of day to answer my question, you should have concerns. If the Seat doesn't matter because of numbers, just elect whoever. If it does matter, gl I guess.

E!TS means look at the TUF voters (if we haven't already won), V!TS means look at the TS voters. Fairly simple for D2. D1 is more complicated but possibly less info.

I'm also leaning towards BB for the Seat, but there's still a turn to decide that. 

1 hour ago, Terrisman said:

Either me or BridgeBoi are likely going to be elected Amyrlin and we will then have double votes. It can be more of a risk then you want

Sounds like another good reason to elect BB 

I'm not so overwhelmingly worried about it. But we'll have to see. 

47 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Given I am not voting right now and don't intend to, I suggest your rework your worldview. I have progression on ToW unlike your lack of progression on me, so your point there is null.

I am repeating, once again, that the n1 was very clearly a low info bait kill that makes perfect sense when TUF flipped elim, because the NK was meant to throw people off of voting TUF, and it did work, for a bit, before everyone went back to TUF. Reread d2, it is obvious that is what the kill was meant for.

I am obvious town  this just always happens because people apparently overestimate me and don't understand the way I play. e!me literally always busses - I both have a meta of bussing and I have very clearly stated that I expect bussing and am used to bussing, so you should be able to draw a conclusion of what e!me would do there reasonably.

... see, the reason I don't trust this is because you've played Mafia-type games before (obviously). Doing the same thing over and over again as an Elim is a very good way to get yourself repeatedly caught. We have Araris here as an example of a player known for continuously bussing his fellow Elims, and while that strategy works pretty well for him - bussing is a good strategy when applied - it also tends to put him on the chopping block when we're hunting for deepwolves because he's well known to do that.

You've been very careful with your votes this game. You've continuously been the person afraid of bussing, when IMO this Elim team doesn't seem like a series of sacrifice flies and instead feels like a team that got caught by inactivity and the dangers of D1. But you've also managed to never vote on an Elim, or even on a flipped player. If there is an Elim busser, no way it's you. I'd probably have to be me, or Terris.

Maybe you have your meta elsewhere, but continuously bringing up an E!you strategy that you clearly have no possible way to have been implementing as an Elim doesn't instill trust in you as town. It's... it's too binary. I can say that E!me tends to be much more inactive or disengaged than V!me, and maybe that's true - but the very fact it's true (and even more me bringing it up, and even more with a limited party of people who can confirm if it's true at all) means that E!me can choose to play intentionally contrary to how E!me normally does.

... but also I don't really know what it would take for me to trust you this game  sometimes I tend to avoid doing hard player analysis, because it does seem to end up with a heavy mistrust of very specific people (hi Illwei, hi Devotary).

@|TJ| turn ends in half an hour, ish?

[TwinStorm He/Him]

14 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Hey, what's... oh.

... as much as I absolutely don't trust Aeternum, I don't think Aet pocketing you to push people via your doc is as dangerous as you think it is. 

Or as a corollary, as much as I trust you, I'm not of the mind to follow you to exe Steel or someone over my own suspicions 

You're not voting yet - what's your opinion on the TwinStorm push? Because you've voted them twice already this game.

 

I'm not going to try to do NKA on Kasimir, because honestly I think any Elim would recognize at that point they need to take him out. Wiz is a bit more interesting.

So far Wiz has voted on Polly (Elim), TUF (Elim), TOW but not finally (Village), and Ashbringer (... Village, thank you very much). During N3 so far I mentioned I trusted Wiz-ish, and Wiz voted Sart for Seat. Wiz also didn't do much / didn't come up much D3 (voted TOW->Ash, V!read by Aet but thought a possible deepwolf), and was discussed a bit more N2 by Kas as a generally-trusted individual.

I'd say they were a fairly low-info kill - no one had voted Wiz except STINK, and they were fairly trusted but not super explicitly stated to be or not. Which to some degree follows from the Teldris kill, and... well, killing Kas is kind of a low info kill. Ish. By the associative property or something.

It also, I'll admit, seems like a kill I'd do. Which maybe someone like Illwei would pick up on, idk. But no one's been "aha Ash must have killed Wiz" so, not much from my PoV.

 

So what else is there?

We still haven't necessarily solved the N1 Teldris kill. It could have been TUF, maybe. But it wouldn't be Drake. My list for the potential killers was TwinStorm, Aeternum, BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Sart - which is most of the people still around, unfortunately, but notably excludes Gaea-Illwei if we think it's solidly only 4 elims (and trust my judgement, and trust TUF wouldn't kill Teldris). Kas's list took out TwinStorm and put in STINK instead. And we can't exe BB or Terris anyway, but it's still a set category I like.

Then there's a few sample worlds to look at.

E! vs V!Twinstorm VoteCounts (not all of them, just ones from Aet's that seem relevant)

  Reveal hidden contents

D1:

Kasimir (2): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Sart
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

Kasimir (4): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
Illwei (2): Sart, Terrisman
KelsierApologist (2): The Wandering Wizard, A Jo in the Bush
Mark IV (1): Illwei
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (3): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei,
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
DrakeMarshall (3): Ashbringer, A Jo in the Bush, Steeldancer
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

KelsierApologist (5): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, Illwei, Steeldancer, Ashbringer
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Illwei (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar
DrakeMarshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

 

D2:

TUF (2): BridgeBoi, The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): Terrisman, TwinStorm
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): Terrisman, TwinStorm, Illwei
TUF (2): BridgeBoi, The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum

TUF (4): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard
TwinStorm (3): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
Mark IV (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

TUF (5): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer
TwinStorm (3): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (1): TUF
Mark IV (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

TUF (6): BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer, TwinStorm
TwinStorm (5): Steeldancer, ThatOneWorldhopper, Aeternum, Illwei, TUF
ThatOneWorldhopper (1): Sart
The Wandering Wizard (1): STINK

 

D3:

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): The Wandering Wizard, Steeldancer, TwinStorm
TwinStorm (1): BridgeBoi

ThatOneWorldhopper (3): Steeldancer, TwinStorm, Aeternum
Illwei (2): Ashbringer, ThatOneWorldhopper
TwinStorm (1): BridgeBoi
Aeternum (1): Sart
Steeldancer (1): Terrisman
Ashbringer (1): The Wandering Wizard

 

So if it's E!TwinStorm, TwinStorm was the final counterwagon to both E!TUF D2 and one-ish to V!TOW D3. This would indicate that the Elim team lost cohesion almost immediately... which, if it's a four-person team with E!TS, makes sense. The Elims lost Polly, Drake was MIA, TUF was on the way out, there wasn't much of anything to stop a second push on E!TwinStorm. But to me it indicates that the Elims also heavily committed to exeing Kas D1 which is... very risky, especially for a team led by TUF. IMO E!TwinStorm would probably mean V!Terris, and probably E!Aeternum but I think I'm going to start seeing E!Aeternum wherever I look.

If it's V!TwinStorm, then there was a counterwagon to TUF, which... not sure how much that means. But it would indicate to me more E!Illwei.

 

Gah. @TwinStorm, you have anything to add?

4 hours ago, STINK said:

I think we're all eagerly anticipating TwinStorm's wise words that will elucidate this whole game

might I remind you that I have been targeted by several elims (including TUF) who tried to eliminate me? I helped eliminate TUF, and I am village. My docmates both betrayed me, and I would love you guys to clarify why you're killing me? Ultimately, you're killing a villager and helping the elims toward victory. That's all I can say, and all I'm going to say. I trust you all to make the right choice. If not, well it's been a fun game

[Terrisman]

1 hour ago, Aeternum said:

I am obvious town  this just always happens because people apparently overestimate me and don't understand the way I play. e!me literally always busses - I both have a meta of bussing and I have very clearly stated that I expect bussing and am used to bussing, so you should be able to draw a conclusion of what e!me would do there reasonably.

How are you obviously town?

also @Steeldancer you voting?

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’m very tempted to make this a tie ngl

[|TJ| he/him]

27 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@|TJ| turn ends in half an hour, ish?

5 mins, yeah

And time!

[|TJ| he/him]

Night 4 - Time to Choose

Sierin looked to the Sitters remaining - Melian and Taimon. All the politicking and negotiating had lead to this. Grey, Blue and Red. She took a deep breath and spoke to the crowd. 

"Well Sisters, it's time to make a choice."

***

TwinStorm was exiled! They were a member of the Black Ajah!

Vote Count:

Quote

TwinStorm (4): Ashbringer, BridgeBoi, Sart, Illwei
Aeternum (2): Terrisman, STINK
Steeldancer (1): TwinStorm

Night 4 has begun and will end on 02nd April, 2025 on 2300 hrs BST. Please note that the Ajah powers are no longer in effect. Also note that the Amyrlin Seat is elected through plurality vote this cycle, meaning the Amyrlin Seat election is guaranteed to occur tonight. Make your votes count! 

Sitters:

Quote

Terrisman - Sitter of the Grey Ajah
BridgeBoi - Sitter of the Blue Ajah

Players:

Spoiler

1. The Wandering Wizard - Evelyn Rosemary Hall of the Tower
2. KelsierApologist - Coprolite Black Ajah
3. TwinStorm - Melian Black Ajah
4. @Aeternum
5. @Ashbringer
6. @Steeldancer - John Steel
7. Kasimir - Kamil Lovric Hall of the Tower
8. The Unknown Flame - Verde Black Ajah
9. ThatOneWorldHopper - Alkarii Tay'TerTüne Hall of the Tower
10. DrakeMarshall - Black Ajah
11. Mark IV Hall of the Tower
12. @BridgeBoi - Taimon
13. @Terrisman - Terri
14. Teldris Anuar - Tesan Alruddin Hall of the Tower
15. @Sart - Sartala
16. @STINK - Rasmuht
17. @Illwei
18. A Jo in the Bush - Emmett Hall of the Tower

Edited April 1, 2025 by |TJ|

[Terrisman]

Wow!! I’ll admit that I am shocked. Did not think there would be a full Ajah of elims. Will note that I did think that there were at least five though