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Quick Fix Game 69: Dark One: Too Light


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20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm curious why you consider this a waste. In my view, a tie is a waste of time and tempo. Not looking at anyone in particular >>

Eh, just my pessimism. I found Aeo’s reply post to me to be slightly village leaning but didn’t mention it because there literally was no point in mentioning it. I don’t think I like this mechanic, a lot of how I solve is reactions to votes.

I should have not doubled my vote but I didn’t think that no one else would vote. It feels like all that was accomplished was me deciding an exe completely on my own. 

More of a small game problem in general, but there’s a reason my legacy was focused on pointing out active players. This is nearly exlo. The game is so small that there’s no breathing room and lesser active people actually destroy us. e!JNV just wins here because we’re never going to vote them.

Also I cannot for the life of me decide if Raven is derp clearing themselves, or was instructed to commit to the bit by their teammate >>

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5 minutes ago, Ookla the Destined said:

e!JNV just wins here because we’re never going to vote them.

I'm curious why, despite JNV's extensively validated E v V meta disparity, you continue to insist on E!JNV here. It feels like you're pushing a FUD/paranoia exe line here and I don't like it.

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Destined said:

Eh, just my pessimism. I found Aeo’s reply post to me to be slightly village leaning but didn’t mention it because there literally was no point in mentioning it. I don’t think I like this mechanic, a lot of how I solve is reactions to votes.

Hmm.

Edited to add:

6 minutes ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

you seem almost too laize-faire

At this point, I think anything and everything I do just validates your thoughts I'm Evil, so why waste my energy on it? If you want to flip me, you want to flip me. Sometimes Villagers just got to learn the hard way when they are wrong. I wanted a chill game and I'm not interested in fighting it. I do think the depth of this tunnel appears pretty genuine/Village to me, but I also don't care to play this game hardcore given my health issues.

So in short: sure, tell that to someone who cares, because I don't :) 

Edited to add 2:

To be clear:

First, I'm too fast to vote. Then, I'm too convincing. Then, I'm too laize-faire. The criteria here keeps shifting and it reads to me as though you just have a deeply-entrenched belief I'm Evil and keep finding things to validate that belief. I am playing despite a wrist injury. So I ask myself - why take this engagement? Is it worth it? And I don't believe it is. I have my read of you, and I've shared it. That's enough for me.

Edited by Kasimir
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2 minutes ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

between death and life, you are really looking like you want the former. its too... strange.

Exactly my point! :)

Quote

“If a made-up mind(cheng xin) counts as a teacher, then who doesn’t have a teacher? Why should it just be the self-chosen experts on the order of things who have them? Stupid people would have them, too. But to have right and wrong before you’ve made up your mind—that’s like leaving for Yue today and getting there yesterday! That’s like saying what isn’t is. What isn’t is? Even the spiritual sage Yu couldn’t make sense of that.” (Ivanhoe & Van Norden, 2001).

 

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13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm curious why, despite JNV's extensively validated E v V meta disparity, you continue to insist on E!JNV here. It feels like you're pushing a FUD/paranoia exe line here and I don't like it.

Oh, I’m not saying they’re evil. There’s no reason for me to think that. But if they are we’re screwed because no one wants to CC in a 9 player game.

Do you think JNV is meta cleared this game?

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Just now, Ookla the Destined said:

Oh, I’m not saying they’re evil. There’s no reason for me to think that. But if they are we’re screwed because no one wants to CC in a 9 player game.

Do you think JNV is meta cleared this game?

I'd argue softcleared for the moment due to disengagement. I never double down on a JNV meta clear until at least C3 or C4 which we're not going to get to see. 

I'd add the TKN kill IMO is a pretty bold kill because it does indicate a high level of confidence with the you, me, Stick, Illwei population this game. Well, or if you like, whichever of you/Aeo survived. This to me is indicative of the obvious: there's ast least one Spiked in this pool so they aren't going to shoot their cover.

Given Stick shading TKN, killing him is a bold move and feels closer to something E!you might do. That being said, E!Stick is extremely, extremely versatile and I could see her doing something "no Elim would do" ("why kill someone you are just setting up for a ML?") to seem more Village here, cf. Toucan. My tldr; is we've backstage game-theorised together enough that I'm reluctant to give Stick easy passes here.

Edited to add:

Ah okay I see the Raven problem:

-Either I believe, based on my current credences, E!Raven and one of E!<you, Stick, Illwei>

or

-E!Stick, E!Illwei

or

-E!you, E!<Stick, Illwei>

The problem with the third situation is that Illwei and Stick cast a pretty risky vote on you. They could've gambled you were going to double but blowing up your double this early is kind of eh. I suppose the other issue is they didn't know if the other was going to double up or Aeo Soothe, but that feels within risk tolerance range.

So it feels like I have to commit to Situation #1 or Situation #2 and just work out which is more insane. Honestly 2 is pretty comfortable, but that does mean that unless I think Situation #3 is coherent, it looks like I have to commit to V!you.

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12 minutes ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

to be fair, i had thought it would be more fun to be enlightened. so im kinda acting e!me in irony, but kas, you have a point. e!illwei is def a possibility i hadnt thought about.

At this point I'd be more willing to believe E!Stick than E!Illwei of the two, though I'm still looking at Situation #2. But this just comes from the fact Stick has actively tripped red flags for me which Illwei hasn't.

@Ooklil the Wei You asked for an assessment of Raven's level and I don't think anyone has offered this yet. I'm especially weak at profiling new or chaotic players in terms of evaluation, so I'll offer what I can.

LG98:

-First game, joined after a ping from Aeo (suspect was drawn by RPing angle?)
-Don't recall any voting from Raven all game, which was admittedly pretty short. Carefree RPing in thread.
-Claimed in PMs to be a Thug.

LG98b:

-I am going to be a bit more cautious here as this is an ongoing game but Raven is dead there and free game IMO.
-Early vote on Drake, never really explained but my sense is that he took exception to Drake voting Aeo pretty early on, as he changed his mind when discovering Drake had PMed everyone and also PMed Aeo after the vote on her. (Assessment: Likely consistent with his current views that early voting is bad.)
-I think he came around on Drake after Rollovet of D1.
-Claimed to V read Drake but declined to vote in defense of Drake during a EoD tie between Drake and Aeo.
-Flipped V N1 after getting cruelly shot by some monster who N1s new players (sorry withholding judgement sorry)

Personal assessment:

-New player, WSYIWYG
-Cannot deny that Raven might be pushing me because he struggles with formulating suspicions (NAI here IMO - true for either alignment, especially acute for E!Raven.)
-Feel E!Raven might take path of least resistance and just go elsewhere for voting, but unclear.
-Fact Raven keeps boomeranging to me feels a bit more genuine because I think a Villager is more willing to be this stubborn.
-However, I'll note he was more willing to back down on Drake if we're using V!Raven in LG98b as a comparator.
-Overall the main uncertainty/error margin in this read is that I am weak at establishing new/chaos player ranges, and calibrating accordingly.

Edited to add:

Oh yeah, Aeo. Since this annoyed me and I got on too late to say anything about it: I ignored it because by this point, I'm conditioned to believe V and E you will do chaotic, crazy things I can't see the point of and then tell me later on there's a point to it. Either there is and I don't get in your way, or there isn't and I refuse to waste my time on them. That's basically my take and my entire headspace was "Not touching this, someone else's problem."

Edited by Kasimir
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2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

At this point I'd be more willing to believe E!Stick than E!Illwei of the two, though I'm still looking at Situation #2. But this just comes from the fact Stick has actively tripped red flags for me which Illwei hasn't.

@Ooklil the Wei You asked for an assessment of Raven's level and I don't think anyone has offered this yet. I'm especially weak at profiling new or chaotic players in terms of evaluation, so I'll offer what I can.

LG98:

-First game, joined after a ping from Aeo (suspect was drawn by RPing angle?)
-Don't recall any voting from Raven all game, which was admittedly pretty short. Carefree RPing in thread.
-Claimed in PMs to be a Thug.

LG98b:

-I am going to be a bit more cautious here as this is an ongoing game but Raven is dead there and free game IMO.
-Early vote on Drake, never really explained but my sense is that he took exception to Drake voting Aeo pretty early on, as he changed his mind when discovering Drake had PMed everyone and also PMed Aeo after the vote on her. (Assessment: Likely consistent with his current views that early voting is bad.)
-I think he came around on Drake after Rollovet of D1.
-Claimed to V read Drake but declined to vote in defense of Drake during a EoD tie between Drake and Aeo.
-Flipped V N1 after getting cruelly shot by some monster who N1s new players (sorry withholding judgement sorry)

Personal assessment:

-New player, WSYIWYG
-Cannot deny that Raven might be pushing me because he struggles with formulating suspicions (NAI here IMO - true for either alignment, especially acute for E!Raven.)
-Feel E!Raven might take path of least resistance and just go elsewhere for voting, but unclear.
-Fact Raven keeps boomeranging to me feels a bit more genuine because I think a Villager is more willing to be this stubborn.
-However, I'll note he was more willing to back down on Drake if we're using V!Raven in LG98b as a comparator.
-Overall the main uncertainty/error margin in this read is that I am weak at establishing new/chaos player ranges, and calibrating accordingly.

yes, i was drawn in by rp lol. and yes, i think if i knew who my companion were if i were elim, i would likely not boomerang as much.

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1 minute ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

yes, i was drawn in by rp lol. and yes, i think if i knew who my companion were if i were elim, i would likely not boomerang as much.

Sorry :P Really not in the mood for RP on this one. Tbf QFs also have less RP.

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43 minutes ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

what does derpclear mean?

Derpclear means being cleared because they did something mindlessly/silly that no Spiked would do. (Or so people think.)

Examples of past game derpclears include not knowing what the Spiked wincon was. The point of caution for derpclears is sometimes players will fake them to try to get the easy clear, e.g. Aman notoriously pretended not to know when the Elims won in MR57 and I think Mat or TJ gave him a pass for it at that time.

A positive derpclear was MR66 where ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ didn't know his abilities or his role level. By that point, you'd expect E!him to know that already, so it was fairly clearing.

Edited by Kasimir
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Stick and raven not aligned most likely, based on their backing my suspicion of raven.

Wasn't really sure how to feel about stick backing both my votes, but she can't really be teamed with raven.

Still want to kill Raven partly, partly think that there's at least one in kas/raven based on his responses to them and just based on. them.

 

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6 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Stick and raven not aligned most likely, based on their backing my suspicion of raven.

I'm reluctant to give that too much credit when she went for Mat over Raven.

6 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Still want to kill Raven partly, partly think that there's at least one in kas/raven based on his responses to them and just based on. them.

What about Raven?

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Just now, Ooklil the Wei said:

id say that it all could imply she's teamed with aeoryi but uh that doesn't exist anymore

Yeah. But backing you on Raven D1 feels cheap given:

-Noncommittalness
-New player
-Literally do not ever need to vote on this as long as there's a more pressing train you can go on
-Suspicions unbacked by voting are cheap especially when you only get the one.

I don't take it to be as indicative.

But admittedly I'm also not sure I believe E!Raven so that sort of locks me to Scenario #2, since Scenario #3 feels more nonsensical for Stick than you.

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1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I'd argue softcleared for the moment due to disengagement. I never double down on a JNV meta clear until at least C3 or C4 which we're not going to get to see. 

I really want to disagree here but nah I've done that before, trusting this. Makes me feel better at least.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I'd add the TKN kill IMO is a pretty bold kill because it does indicate a high level of confidence with the you, me, Stick, Illwei population this game. Well, or if you like, whichever of you/Aeo survived. This to me is indicative of the obvious: there's ast least one Spiked in this pool so they aren't going to shoot their cover.

Yeah, which is what I was thinking anyway. The TKN kill almost looks like they're trying to indirectly frame me (as I was the most vocal about v reading them) but I also think it indicates an elim team that was fairly comfortable with yesterday's votes as they killed someone notorious for not voting. This game in particular I think elims will pay special attention to votes.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Ah okay I see the Raven problem:

-Either I believe, based on my current credences, E!Raven and one of E!<you, Stick, Illwei>

or

-E!Stick, E!Illwei

or

-E!you, E!<Stick, Illwei>

I don't love an Illwei/Raven team, if only because Illwei just shot down Stick/Raven and I don't know how much they would be comfortable with shrinking worlds here. e!Stick/Illwei is certainly possible. I don't want to forget about e!you worlds but your response to Raven's vote feels a lot more v!you so I'm fine with that read I suppose.

Out of the three I'd vote Stick first. I gutread Illwei village, and Raven is giving me village chaos vibes despite their you vote seeming performative. But I think their post about ironically playing like an elim because they randed village is potentially clearing. With e!Stick idk who the third would be. No clear teams are appearing. That'd be too easy.

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35 minutes ago, Ookla the Destined said:

I really want to disagree here but nah I've done that before, trusting this. Makes me feel better at least.

Look. Is it possible they'll change their meta sometime and catch us all off-guard? Yeah. Could it be this game? Sure, why not.

But I'll note what I've said before (in MR66 I believe) - that JNV has acknowledged this is a correct take on their meta, that they're trying to change it, and that they have so far failed. This, to me, points to the fact that this is a bit more robust than a normal piece of meta. I do know it boils down to certain psychological aspects of how they approach the game. Would I bet the farm on it? IDK. I wasn't comfortable betting the Village on it until C3 of MR66 where I fed JNV everything I could to prepare them to take over. So even I have my limits on how much I'd use their meta. But given the robustness of it, I can't deny that's where I am for them.

Which means I either accept E!Raven, or I have to look in <you, Stick, Illwei> for both E!partners.

I don't have much of an Illwei read but that kind of matters here when I actually lean negative on Stick, and I suppose I'm back all over the place for you because Illwei's and Stick's EoDs don't make sense with E!you. Illwei's a bit more, I guess, but still risky.

Edited to add:

35 minutes ago, Ookla the Destined said:

I don't love an Illwei/Raven team, if only because Illwei just shot down Stick/Raven and I don't know how much they would be comfortable with shrinking worlds here.

I'm considering because if you think about it - Illwei pointed out last cycle we are in lylo this cycle. (4-2; ignoring 3 Elims worlds here as we'd have already lost if so.) I don't reasonably believe we can engineer a hammer resistant tie here; too many factors going on. Which means we get this right or we lose this.

Illwei's current push is for one E in me/Raven - that's pretty ??? to me when I look at it again because Raven still feels like LHF, and almost an excuse to take the shot on me since Raven already locked in on me. (Reminds me of Orlok telling me the important thing was to lock a train on Maili but that's neither here nor there.) 

My point is that I'm not convinced it's a big loss for her world-wise because Illwei's current dominant theory is in me/Raven, she said at least, which is more expansive, and...you know, shrinking worlds tends to be a long-term mid-to-late game problem, not a lylo problem. I agree it's a problem if you have too few at lylo but it doesn't feel like a hardlock here just because Stick/Raven are out for her.

Edited to add 2:

And no, it's not really altering my view of Raven's vote. I'm one person with an injured wrist. I do my thing, y'all do yours, and it's not on me if y'all choose poorly or anything. Sometimes the Village gotta burn before people will learn, that's all. Being chill is better for the blood pressure and I appreciate not needing to switch on Village lead mode for one game >>

Edited by Kasimir
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Just now, Kasimir said:

@JNV - I see you're reading this. Thoughts?

I stared at the player list for a bit and my brain said its definitely a Stick Illwei team and I asked my brain for any justification for this and well I trsut you and Ravens kind of helter skelter new player panic and then like if I narrow that then like Matrim teams dont cohere I mean I guess Im kinda letting Raven off the hook here and theres always the possibility Matrim and unknown other just like planned to make Matrim look alone and sad so that might come back to bite me but yeah theres my thoughts

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