Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm going to attempt to do traditional vote analysis for D5 sometime today. Honestly a lil silly I haven't even tried. I'll attempt to approach it from both an E/E world (possible the Fadran voters near the end could have been elim motivated; perhaps the same could be said of the Biplet votes ) and from a E/V world (which requires v!Fadran and e!Orlok, I think?)

Still find it odd that Tani would vote to confuse us in an e!Steel world but I'll try to ignore the tie shenanigans for now

Edited February 11, 2023 by Amanuensis

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Oh we probably got an elim? That’s pretty sick. @Steeldancer how’s it feel now that you’ve been scanned?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

i am questioning whether i should have left my order on JNV instead of switching to TJ

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

E!Steel legitimately makes zero logical sense D5 and I am deeply unhappy and refuse to believe it until the aftermath

bro it does make logical sense!!

all of this "the elims would never do X" is sheer IKYK, if they think you'd think they'd never do X then maybe they will do X ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

if you ignore all that and look at the way the actual claims lined up, Steel was a dubious individual, and that's before he got scanned as an elim or e!Sart tried to save him

anyways i want to assert that unless you think Stick shoots e!Tani and then I go as hard as I did after both e!Steel and e!Sart, i am indeed village

this game is utter madness yes :'(

the lack of alignment flips hurts on a spiritual level

but we do what we can

we do what we can

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I also think e!Steel makes v!Fadran more likely, though not certain.

agree, I think knowing e!Steel with a pretty high certainty improves v!Fadran and v!Biplet confidences both

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Doesn't Sart have the same role though? Cause you and TJ both failed to target him on the same night. That I think makes Archer's role village sided since I'd only buy the elims have one of those.

Sart and Archer don't have the same role but pretty sure thats already been pointed out

However, this is still a valid point you're making I think? Sart and Archer had similar roles seemingly, and do we think the elim team had 2 similar roles that do the same thing?

we don't really know anything solid that much about Sart's power tho so that makes all of this kinda murky

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Roleblocker TJ dying does help Drake's push towards the end here. 

oh I'm pushing towards the end alright

that much is true no matter what

stay tuned to find out which side im playing for

assuming you dont already know which side im playing for

no but yea i dont think either me or aman is evil so im going to have to respectfully disagree with your vote

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Still find it odd that Tani would vote to confuse us

bro have you met Tani

[Channelknight Fadran]

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh right. The Fadran issue.

If he's Village then we know there's an elim who scans Village, right? Like, it'd be crazy for there not to be?

@Channelknight Fadran did you Troll last night?

I did not. I was too busy watching Lord of the Rings.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

24 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

I did not. I was too busy watching Lord of the Rings.

comprehensible have a nice day

while trolling people is near and dear to my heart, Lord of the Rings is also important

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

I did not. I was too busy watching Lord of the Rings.

I’m confused. Do you not want to prevent Kasimir from inciting a civil war, thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to complete the nationwide transmutation circle and create a sufficiently powerful philosopher's stone to attain God?

Edited February 12, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Channelknight Fadran]

You have to understand that I was cuddling with a special someone at the time. Reason does not become the likes of me in such situations.

[Archer he/him]

38 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

You have to understand that I was cuddling with a special someone at the time. 

You didn't do your homework because of your dog? 

 

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

 

oh I'm pushing towards the end alright

Would you agree that you not CSing from here on out gives us a better chance of winning, e!Ash possibilities aside? 

[Channelknight Fadran]

I wish I had a dog

[Orlok Tsubodai]

From a sense check point of view, I’d note that it doesn’t make a great deal of sense for Devotary, myself, and Steel all to be village (unless there’s a hiding Pinch Hitter) and Devotary and myself were both elim kills.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

54 minutes ago, Archer said:

Would you agree that you not CSing from here on out gives us a better chance of winning, e!Ash possibilities aside? 

No I would not agree I don’t think

would not voting from here on out give us a better chance at winning?

the only way the bots will stop coming is if we do something about it! they aren’t gonna stop plaguing the shard on their own now will they

i dont understand how disarming the village of kills near the end of the game could be a good thing

 

anyway if i gave my word to not seek would village!you even believe me?

if you are actually village and i promised “yo im totally a pacifist for real this time” would you actually be satisfied by that?

X (doubt)

so then why are you asking hmmmm >:P

 

edit: like, idk, you can tell me where my reasoning breaks down if you can, but:

case 1, your a villager and think im an elim, but then if im an elim i wont keep my word so its odd to ask for it

case 2, your an elim and know im village, and are worried that if i continue shooting the elims will lose faster

this is what it looks like to me

 

edit2: like if you just want to say you think im an elim and that you want to vote me out, that's fine, the part that rubs me the wrong way is where it feels like you are trying to leverage the pressure of being voted or sussed or whatever into pressuring me not to shoot anyone

that does not feel like it comes from a village mindset

Edited February 11, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[Amanuensis he/him]

33 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

From a sense check point of view, I’d note that it doesn’t make a great deal of sense for Devotary, myself, and Steel all to be village (unless there’s a hiding Pinch Hitter) and Devotary and myself were both elim kills.

I think Devotary was an RPer not a Pinchhitter, but yeah.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

This just in: I just asked the GMs if they were planning to incite a civil war, thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to complete the nationwide transmutation circle and create a sufficiently powerful philosopher's stone to attain God

they did not respond in the negative

[Araris Valerian he/him]

33 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

so then why are you asking hmmmm >:P

I'm already voting Archer, you know. You could make it into a party.

[Archer he/him]

30 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

anyway if i gave my word to not seek would village!you even believe me?

No, but I would advocate for your exe if you did. And frankly I think your kill should be negotiated tonight as a matter of accountability. But we might not get to that point. 

Here's what I'm looking at. Reasonable worst case scenario is two dead elims (Tani and Steel or Sart), 6 starting elims, and e!Drake. 

We mix today, the elims kill two people in the night, brings us to parity. Whereas you not killing gives us an extra exe at 5v;4e. The way I see it, if this is exlo, we kill you and go to a new Day at exlo but you're out of the picture. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

We mix today, the elims kill two people in the night, brings us to parity. Whereas you not killing gives us an extra exe at 5v;4e. The way I see it, if this is exlo, we kill you and go to a new Day at exlo but you're out of the picture. 

So this this world, we lose. Because the elims can always exe me at parity.

Edit: That's not quite right, because of dead votes. But I'm not sure how many of those we can count on.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

28 minutes ago, Archer said:

No, but I would advocate for your exe if you did. And frankly I think your kill should be negotiated tonight as a matter of accountability.

When did I say I wouldn't listen if people gave advice about who they thought I should target at night?!

Have you, at any point, tried to weigh in and give me advice about who to shoot?

If you sincerely wanted input on who I targeted, then how come you never put in the effort to come up with suggestions during the night?

This doesn't just go for you, it goes for everyone else too: literally the only requests I got for who to shoot last night was that I should shoot myself, and you'll all have to forgive me for making the executive decision that this was a stupid idea from my vantage (edit: Tbf, Aman did do some analysis with me last night, and it remains to be seen whether going after a PM Spider would have been the right decision)

But it is particularly relevant in your case, because you're kicking up a fuss about a lack of oversight without previously having attempted to engage in my CS decision-making process in any way I can remember.

28 minutes ago, Archer said:

Here's what I'm looking at. Reasonable worst case scenario is two dead elims (Tani and Steel or Sart), 6 starting elims, and e!Drake.

Hmm.

I think Steel and Sart are both evil from the evidence, and I don't think a 6-elim team would be likely if the elims had a coinshot.

Apart from that, do you think e!Stick/Drake takes down Tani, and then follows it up with being the first vote on the huge e!Steel train, and then follows it up with immediately voting for e!Sart following his claim and pointing out why that claim is fake?

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm already voting Archer, you know. You could make it into a party.

It already is a bit of a party I voted on page 2

sorry Archer

but I do currently think the PoE from Orlok's Tie Guy scan points your way unless e!Silhouette maybe

Vote Tally (I think)
Archer (3): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall
DrakeMarshall (1): Archer

Edited February 11, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

So this this world, we lose. Because the elims can always exe me at parity.

Edit: That's not quite right, because of dead votes. But I'm not sure how many of those we can count on.

You can count on mine!

Oh. Wait, I wasted mine trying to kill an elim. Oopsie.

[Amanuensis he/him]

You know, I still have no idea why the e!RBer hadn't just... idk... RB'd the players doing the scan rather than players making sure the scan goes through? Like we had no real defense for it but they kept letting them happen.

Like why block Fadran on N4 and not RandBy, when you knew Steel is about to get scanned? Fear of a second Multiquoter hiding?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

You know, I still have no idea why the e!RBer hadn't just... idk... RB'd the players doing the scan rather than players making sure the scan goes through? Like we had no real defense for it but they kept letting them happen.

Like why block Fadran on N4 and not RandBy, when you knew Steel is about to get scanned? Fear of a second Multiquoter hiding?

I don't really understand it either, honestly. Just that e!Steel seemed likely to me despite the oddness.

I'm also surprised neither me nor Orlok was blocked last night, although that might be bc Sart or Steel was our e!Roleblocker.

...is it possible that the elims wanted to troll Randby N4, but somehow didn't get the order in? This might honestly be our best explanation at this point.

Or...

What if their roleblocker was already dead?

Say you are the elims and you have no roleblocker on N4.

This is a tight spot to be in.

You could troll the scanner, but unless you could deal with the meme makers, it would be pointless.

So maybe e!Fadran trolls Araris, claims to have been roleblocked, and calls it a day? That might be the best way they could do damage control. That would have a decent chance of throwing doubt on the redscan, as evidenced by the fact that it was doubted by people.

Alternatively:

<foil>What if Meme Makers just aren't a real role? I mean, there are obvious advantages to inventing such a role for the elims, getting to tell the village when to believe or not to believe that a person was trolled... And anyways, what does any of that role have to do with "meme making" the other role names feel like they make more sense than this one. This implies v!Steel and an evil team that in the very least includes (Araris, Biplet, Wizard) in addition to (Tani, Sart). Edit: This tinfoilland also pretty much requires evil!Orlok.</foil>

Edited February 12, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[Amanuensis he/him]

Y'know, a bit late to this joke, but I just have to now that I thought it

3 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

I wish I had a dog

A dog named Nina?

ED1T:

@DrakeMarshall mobile so can’t quote but I was roleblocked N3 when Book scanned Araris + Book was the only player that died that night (your Archer kill failed). D4 Ash was executed and survived so the e!Wallposter would still be alive N4

ED2T:

That was a very weird glitch

Edited February 12, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Amanuensis he/him]

eh Fadran

Better to collapse this reality sooner rather than later, right?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

23 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

eh Fadran

Better to collapse this reality sooner rather than later, right?

The argument being that e!Fadran would act as he did regardless of Steel’s alignment, in order to cast doubt on the scan result?

[Ashbringer he/him]

For Wiz to be Evil, Fae has to be evil. Or Wiz is an evil Confirmed Villager and Fae’s SE Buddy is incredibly unlucky.

But that would be cruel even for this game 

[Mat he/him]

6 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Sart and Archer don't have the same role but pretty sure thats already been pointed out

However, this is still a valid point you're making I think? Sart and Archer had similar roles seemingly, and do we think the elim team had 2 similar roles that do the same thing?

we don't really know anything solid that much about Sart's power tho so that makes all of this kinda murky

Hmm right yeah I think I knew that >> What I know and what I tinfoil is blurring into nothing helpful, I've sorta fallen off the face of the earth lately which is too bad. I've had a busy couple days but I'll try to get back into it.

I don't think the elims would have 2 similar roles (which honestly I could read that as another point towards e!you in that Tani wouldn't be an RPer since e!Steel already role copies, and Tani not being an RPer was a point Aman made for e!you awhile back but that's reaching real far lol) and so for me e!Sart does imply v!Archer. You're right about Sart's role being completely unknown though. Think he'll tell us if we ask?

In all seriousness, though, what's the Archer case? Is it just PoE?

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

<foil>What if Meme Makers just aren't a real role? I mean, there are obvious advantages to inventing such a role for the elims, getting to tell the village when to believe or not to believe that a person was trolled... And anyways, what does any of that role have to do with "meme making" the other role names feel like they make more sense than this one. This implies v!Steel and an evil team that in the very least includes (Araris, Biplet, Wizard) in addition to (Tani, Sart). Edit: This tinfoilland also pretty much requires evil!Orlok.</foil>

If this is true the remaining elims are literally just Araris/Bip/Wiz/Orlok with Tani/Sart being already dead, and with the level of rolechecking going on I kiiiiind of doubt they just made up a role . And I guess Wiz would have to be an e!CV, like Ash is saying. Evil Wiz almost always equals evil Fae but the inverse isn't as absolute, imo.

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The argument being that e!Fadran would act as he did regardless of Steel’s alignment, in order to cast doubt on the scan result?

I think casting doubt on the scan result was the whole point, I mean, if it isn't, why not just RB Randby? The fact that they didn't implies that they had some plan of what to do with the result. Or like I think has been brought up, didn't have a RBer anymore. But idk if I believe that. Sart as a RBer makes sense to me and the thematics of being a RBer who blocks incoming actions towards them is a thing that exists.