Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Don’t even start on that looool

Wanna know what the first thing I said to Kas was? ‘You gave me that on purpose didn’t you’  

I never asked, but I figure it essentially just makes there only be two valid vote targets for the cycle; me and the other person. So I guess, yes, that’s how that works. 

I mean, I can (and it’d be appropriate since Ash has been my tunnel this game anyway ) but do I need to? Like, what’s the point of using the role if we can just agree to vote Ash.

I guess the point would be proving my role. I just have this notion of ‘holding onto it until I need it’ since it’s single use but idk when that would be.

It would be to also prove your role, yeah. Maybe not necessary.

I think the most ideal situation is suspected exlo, when the elims are voting Kas and Fifth. You can buy an extra cycle that way

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

smh 

-

its also possible there is an evil rper who copied the evil rber or me and got an extra rb last night.

I mean, who did you put the order on

Because maybe it failed because there was nothing to block

Ed1t:

Also Tani claimed RPer. You think elims have two?

Edited February 5, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

It would be to also prove your role, yeah. Maybe not necessary.

I think the most ideal situation is suspected exlo, when the elims are voting Kas and Fifth. You can buy an extra cycle that way

I question how scary the elims trying to vote Kas is when we have an army of dead villagers with votes on reserve but yeah  I’ll think about it

[|TJ| he/him]

5 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

i attempted to roleblock archer.

broooo aman reaaaaad smh xD

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Because maybe it failed because there was nothing to block

it should have failed n1 and n2 too as shining and mat claim they dont have a night action. 

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Also Tani claimed RPer. You think elims have two?

hmmm... possible but not likely. pinch hitter? what exactly did steel do last night? 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

26 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

and any night role?

forgot to answer this, no night role

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I feel like the main upshot of Orlok's scan thingy is that more people in that group are suspicious than can possibly be elims >>

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I feel like the main upshot of Orlok's scan thingy is that more people in that group are suspicious than can possibly be elims >>

You shoulda shot one of em then :eyes:

Cheeky Biplet countertrain

I don’t mind TJ as an option but divergence is good

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You shoulda shot one of em then :eyes:

No!!! I said I'm a pacifist

20 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

hmmm... possible but not likely. pinch hitter? what exactly did steel do last night? 

Do you believe the elims used a pinch-hitter to gain the RPer role and then the RPer role to gain a roleblock role and went through all of that conniption to roleblock you? AFAIK this would take 3 whole cycles to have a coin flip chance of failing to block your roleblock. Does that sound likely to you?

Sir I do not think you are a villager.

[|TJ| he/him]

36 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Do you believe the elims used a pinch-hitter to gain the RPer role and then the RPer role to gain a roleblock role and went through all of that conniption to roleblock you? AFAIK this would take 3 whole cycles to have a coin flip chance of failing to block your roleblock. Does that sound likely to you?

ah sorry, momentarily i thought pinch-hitter can directly get roleblock from tani. i dont know how though but my action really did fail. either by some other mechanic or by another roleblocker/version of roleblocker. i dont even know if another villager rber blocked me (in which case they should claim). if not, then i dont know why they targeted me instead of you, maybe they had another way of nullifying your presumed kill and the candidates for players with unaccountable night actions was decreasing which made it likely possible i could block the nk. i can only speculate, i really dont know. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Wanna know what the first thing I said to Kas was? ‘You gave me that on purpose didn’t you’  

I had a similar reaction when I got my porch role .

[Ashbringer he/him]

Striker Lynchbait and Dannex TieGuy are also somewhat thematic. Don’t know how much Thread Master is for me, which is why I was trying to figure out if Mat was one too… but I think E!Kas fears me so 

My reaction was more why does this exist and why did you give it to me

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

30 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I had a similar reaction when I got my porch role .

Yeah it felt almost too on the nose

Sadly there is no such thing as too on the nose in SE apparently

30 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

ah sorry, momentarily i thought pinch-hitter can directly get roleblock from tani. i dont know how though but my action really did fail. either by some other mechanic or by another roleblocker/version of roleblocker. i dont even know if another villager rber blocked me (in which case they should claim). if not, then i dont know why they targeted me instead of you, maybe they had another way of nullifying your presumed kill and the candidates for players with unaccountable night actions was decreasing which made it likely possible i could block the nk. i can only speculate, i really dont know. 

I admit it's possible that the elims are trying to frame you here.

Pretty sure that would implicate Ash, Silhouette, Biplet, etc. People who don't have solid accounting of their roles or what they've been doing, or people who made late role claims that feel at least somewhat hard to believe.

I will echo your request that if a villager roleblocked TJ, they should probably speak up. I have doubts that any such person exists, but if they do, knowing about it would help get to the bottom of this.

But like. Do I really believe the elims would focus on blocking you when that has a 50% chance of not even doing anything?

Do I really believe that you were conveniently roleblocked and can't account for your action on the same cycle that the elims were apparently roleblocking people?

You had Archer to corroborate your actions before, which is its own can of worms, but e!you couldn't just make up a roleblock target, since if you picked one of the people you'd done before it'd be suspicious, whereas if you picked a random chance there's a good chance that they'd come back and say "you didn't roleblock me I successfully took an action." So you are falling pretty much where I'd expect elim!TJ to to be honest. On the other hand, I really don't think I understand what's happening if you're a villager.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

But like. Do I really believe the elims would focus on blocking you when that has a 50% chance of not even doing anything?

Do I really believe that you were conveniently roleblocked and can't account for your action on the same cycle that the elims were apparently roleblocking people?

i dont know why my roleblock failed. perhaps there is some other action that is messing up and causing actions to fail. fifth pafo'd the question.

but seriously, after claiming roleblocker, it would be suicidal to roleblock aman if i was evil. thats death sentence right there. plus a better option for evil me would be to claim i blocked one of my teammates. thats what i would do if i was evil. claiming that my action failed is all the more suspicious which does not make sense for evil me to be doing. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

i dont know why my roleblock failed. perhaps there is some other action that is messing up and causing actions to fail. fifth pafo'd the question.

but seriously, after claiming roleblocker, it would be suicidal to roleblock aman if i was evil. thats death sentence right there. plus a better option for evil me would be to claim i blocked one of my teammates. thats what i would do if i was evil. claiming that my action failed is all the more suspicious which does not make sense for evil me to be doing. 

If you genuinely think that it's a death sentence, then that isn't really consistent with arguing that voting you isn't the best move today, at least for those of us who don't know your alignment one way or the other. Either the situation you are in is damning and it is logical to vote for you, or it is not and elim!TJ understands this to be the case.

Like if you wanted to say "I get that the evidence against me looks bad here, but despite this I'm actually inno" that would be one thing, but you're basically saying "the evidence against me looks bad here, therefore I must be inno" and that just doesn't track It feels like you are manufacturing certainty.

Not only does it feel like manufactured certainty, but it feels fundamentally like a TWTBAW argument. I take a somewhat dim view of these when people make them about other people, let alone when somebody is making such an argument about themselves

Sir I still do not think you are a villager.

 

Edit:

Furthermore, I think Silhouette is also evil, and was planning to bus you when at first it looked like a strong TJ wagon was appearing, and then leapt on the Archer off-ramp when I offered it. I think the 2 elims in Orlok's scan are TJ and Silhouette.

My luck probably isn't good enough for this analysis to be completely correct, but you never know.

Edited February 5, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[|TJ| he/him]

14 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Like if you wanted to say "I get that the evidence against me looks bad here, but despite this I'm actually inno" that would be one thing, but you're basically saying "the evidence against me looks bad here, therefore I must be inno" and that just doesn't track It feels like you are manufacturing certainty.

uh no im just saying its not logical for any elim to do this, much less me because its - well to put it mildly is a very self-destructive move. like your logic is - 

there is a suspicious roleblocker -> elim claims as roleblocker (when there was no reason to do so) -> elim goes on to block a nearly confirmed villager despite the public knowledge that they are a roleblocker ??? 

how is that any way not self-destructing for an elim? like what is a single elim motivation to go through any of the steps in the chain of logic? [btw ive suspected shining since very early in the game]

anyway ill stop defending myself, its of no point. id rather go on the offensive. i should be free in a while. i want to re-read to make a comprehensive action tracker so we can get to know who has free night roles to kill and role-block aman. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Right but you really can't maintain without being disingenuous that it is suicidal for elim!TJ to create the situation that we are seeing, unless you also believe that the situation that the village currently sees is one in which a sane village should execute you.

I could litigate more about each of your specific decisions and defenses, but it would all be secondary to the above.

Anyways, if you'd rather go on the offensive and do analysis of your own then excellent, you have my blessing FWIW. I've said it a lot before, but analyzing other players is a much more compelling defense than enumerating reasons why you're innocent, if you can only do one of those.

[|TJ| he/him]

bros hold on @Channelknight Fadran, i was rereading, but just to confirm - you trolled Aman last night? which means amans protect on bookwyrm should have turned into a kill??? 

8 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

I was told to Troll Aman. That is, I imagine, what happened.

maybe your action failed because the elims were already killing bookwyrm?

[|TJ| he/him]

Double-posting as this might be a large post - 

Player	Day/Passive Action	Night Action	N1	N2	N3
Ashbringer	Thread Master	?	???	???	???
Wizard	-	PM Spider	???	Scan Araris Araris targeted TKN	???
Steeldancer		Pinch-Hitter	Snatch Striker	???	Snatch Dannex
Fadran	Confirmed Villager	Troll	Troll Walin	Troll RandBy	Troll Aman
Striker	Lynchbait/Stab Voter	-
Xino		Multiquoter	Scan Aman Action Failed	Scan Bookwyrm Book targeted Orlok
JNV	?	?	?	?	?
Matrim	Tunnel Constrictor	?	?	?	?
Biplet	?	?	?	?	?
Araris		Troll Watcher	Scan TKN Troll Negative	Watch Bookwyrm Troll Negative	?
Devotary		Pinch-Hitter	?
Aman	Goalkeeper	Troll	Saved Xino	Save/Troll Bookwyrm Action Failed	Save Bookwyrm Action Failed
TUN		Goalkeeper	Save Aman	?
Bookwyrm		Vote Analyst	Scan Striker (V)	Scan Orlok (V)	Scan Araris (V)
Tani		Roleplayer	?
Archer		PM Spider	???	Scan TJ TJ targeted Mat	???
Walin		Troll	Troll Aman	-
TJ		Wall-Poster	Blocked Shining	Blocked Mat	Blocked Archer Action Failed
Danex	Tie Guy
Stick/Drake		Terminal Seeker	Kill Tani	Kill Xino	???
Orlok		Pinch-Hitter		Copy Danex	D3 - Use Tie Guy N3 - ?
Random		Roleplayer	Copy a Troll?	Troll Xino (failed) TTaTT (Fadran -> RBy)	?
Sart			?	?	?
Shining	Discussion Leader		?	?	?
Fae	PM Buddy	PM Spider	?	?	?

first questions - 

@Kasimir or any of the pmers, does it take an action for you to send pms in the alternate odd cycle?

we still have 2 more unidentified pmers - one who is a pm (presumed) analyst in comms with ada who scanned mat v, the other is pm troll in comms with drake/stick, the whole i kill myself you troll me thing at the end of n2. @Amanuensis, any more scan results from your pm contact? just a single result seems odd. 

@Ashbringer, @Matrim's Dice, @Shining Silhouette, please confirm if you have a night action if you can.

@Sart, @Biplet, @JNV, inviting yall to claim your role if you want to. 

@Steeldancer, what did you do n2?

@Araris Valerian, whom did you troll watch n3?

@DrakeMarshall, still not sure by what you mean when you said "pacifist". do you not actually have a kill role? if you do, what happened last night? also, if you did not take any action, how do you know if you were roleblocked or not?

@Orlok Tsubodai and @Random Bystander, which role did you guys copy last night, if its safe to reveal it considering village opsec? [if not just confirm if you have sucessfully copied a role last night]

@The last Fae in the Woods, you scan results from n2?

pardon if you have already mentioned this info before, i did try to search as much as possible, sorry if ive missed it. 

inviting everyone else to know the unknowns in the table to help me out. 

unaccountable n3 actions - ash, wiz, jnv, mat, biplet, (araris?), archer, drake, (orlok?),  (random?), sart, shining, fae - 

removing players who could have actions not yet revealed and village reads - ash, jnv, mat, biplet, archer, shining

im hoping at least one roleblocker and one elim kill is among these. ash, archer, mat, shining is the overlap between this and the tieguy result. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Last night I attempted to murder Biplet, not Book. That was fairly well telegraphed for the last few hours. Deliberately so to see if the elims would let me freely kill another villager or try to save her. Will note that Biplet has been active enough to be an e!Wallposter, though I would definitely find that ironic, considering...

ED1T:

@|TJ|why RB Archer?

Edited February 5, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

22 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

@Araris Valerian, whom did you troll watch n3?

Archer, and my action failed.

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Archer, and my action failed.

Why Archer?

ED1T:

@Matrim's Dice did you receive a PM today from UPS? 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Random Bystander she/her]

10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I might have not thought that one through lol

@Steeldancer did you get Danex's Tie Guy?

@Random Bystander did you get Book's role for today?

Yep.

Apparently to use this, I must vote for someone or someone must vote for me.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Random Bystander said:

Yep.

Apparently to use this, I must vote for someone or someone must vote for me.

Yup, that's what Book has been saying since D2.

Curious that the elims would kill Book instead of Trolling RandBy, thus removing Vote Analyst from the game for this cycle, and shoot elsewhere, however...

@DrakeMarshall were you trolled, maybe? Did you submit a kill order that became a protect?

[|TJ| he/him]

26 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@|TJ|why RB Archer?

an intersection of all the sets like whom i suspected (was iffy that archer was somewhat village read by majority) plus who has a free night action slot (avoiding trolls)(assumed and still assuming odd night pms dont take up an action slot) plus tie guy result (had already blocked mat and shining from it) plus elim team combinations (orlok not likely evil, araris not likely evil, aman not likely evil. if archer is evil, who else is gonna submit elim kills?). 

28 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Archer, and my action failed.

okay this is weird. two players targets one person and both their actions failing? im guessing archer has a role that make all actions on him fail or some variant of it subject to some conditions. thoughts?

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

an intersection of all the sets like whom i suspected (was iffy that archer was somewhat village read by majority) plus who has a free night action slot (avoiding trolls)(assumed and still assuming odd night pms dont take up an action slot) plus tie guy result (had already blocked mat and shining from it) plus elim team combinations (orlok not likely evil, araris not likely evil, aman not likely evil. if archer is evil, who else is gonna submit elim kills?). 

okay this is weird. two players targets one person and both their actions failing? im guessing archer has a role that make all actions on him fail or some variant of it subject to some conditions. thoughts?

I am aware that @Archer successfully PM'd Wizard too. Thoughts, Arch? ((ED1T: So did Fae, btw))

Edited February 5, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Random Bystander she/her]

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Yup, that's what Book has been saying since D2.

Curious that the elims would kill Book instead of Trolling RandBy, thus removing Vote Analyst from the game for this cycle, and shoot elsewhere, however...

@DrakeMarshall were you trolled, maybe? Did you submit a kill order that became a protect?

Also, can you troll me? I want to make sure that I get the right analysis.