Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Well, it’s not a not-Jester claim either. It’s an “I didn’t claim anything” claim.

You did vote yourself while in a tie, then say that you had an ulterior motive, though.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Well, it’s not a not-Jester claim either. It’s an “I didn’t claim anything” claim.

Hm.

24 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Other impulses move me this game, lawman.

So I guess the impulses are of the hacked account and/or eldritch being impostor variety, then?

Edited January 28, 2023 by Amanuensis

[StrikerEZ he/him]

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You did vote yourself while in a tie, then say that you had an ulterior motive, though.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

My ulterior motive could be wanting to exe myself for non-Jester related reasons. Or simply wanting to see what happened. Or just being attention-seeking.

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Hm.

So I guess the impulses are of the hacked account and/or eldritch being impostor variety, then?

More of the “I like to do things for crems and giggles” variety. Or perhaps the “I have a very intentional reason to do this that might make sense at the end of the game or perhaps earlier but not today” variety.

[Amanuensis he/him]

So what do you want to discuss Stricker?

Edited January 28, 2023 by Amanuensis
Forgot a c

[Ashbringer he/him]

Quote

Forgot a c

Uhhhh…?

[Channelknight Fadran]

What'd I miss?

[Stick. she/her]

I don’t think Striker is a Jester he hasn’t really done anything Jester-like. Also, I just don’t know how to feel about all these people claiming to vote a certain way for unknown mysterious reasons.

Edit:

Mat is most likely village. What do people think of Araris’ super early role claim? Would E!Araris do that?

Edited January 28, 2023 by _Stick_

[|TJ| he/him]

im so confused. 

bros. if you think amans claim is distracting, just ignore the claim and all parts of his role. focus on reading his posts and judge him as baddie or goodie purely from that. if hes true neutral, he wouldnt want to get voted out before fulfilling his wincon. hens, he shouldnt, in theory, be exhibiting baddie tendencies to avoid being voted out. 

also. im confused. i think one of shining/wiz/fae/fadran are baddie. pure gut. 

and strikers doing the pretend-to-be-neutral bit again but idk if hes goodie or baddie this time -.-

goodie - ashbringer, bystander
???? - stick, locky, aman, archer, walin, striker, fae, wiz (read ??? as waterrr you doinnnng?)
idk but hmmm leaning mildly just slightly goodie - mat, araris
baddie - jnv, fadran, shining

Edited January 28, 2023 by |TJ|

[StrikerEZ he/him]

58 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So what do you want to discuss Stricker?

I think you misspelled Kjell.

Anyway, I do really think Wiz is suspicious. I can’t for the life of me remember why right now though.

Oh yeah it came from a crack idea that Aman was faking this and Wiz was claiming a role or something to help verify Aman’s claim. Plus Wiz’s general weirdness.

Anyway, my main thoughts about Aman’s roleclaim are that we have no way to verify it and that it is perfectly reasonable that Aman would claim this regardless of if it’s true. I don’t actually think he’s necessarily elim or village because of it, just don’t think the claim itself is true. Partially because he’s Aman, but mostly because I think the idea he came up with is too highly specific to be true.

[Walin he/him]

Striker, I can confirm that there is at least one Troll in this game.

23 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

What'd I miss?

Quite a lot, from what I gathered. I skimmed the last 8 pages as fast as I reasonably could, and it took me 10 minutes.

I only could retain a couple points from all that; there's unfortunately too much for me to sum up accurately. Maybe you'll be able to leverage your place as not-on-the-top-anymore for some information. I'll be gone the entirety of tomorrow, and Archer I remove my vote on you. It was mostly a poke vote (I think; I don't remember my motivations for my first post but I believe it was a mixture of "I've got to vote someone and I have no idea who, so I'll pick someone based on their player-list description" and "I should poke vote someone to provoke discussion") and served its sentence.

Sart expressed doubt about the Referee role that Amanuensis has; I don't know if it actually exists either, but I know there was at least one true statement in his claim post. I happen to have a role related to the Trolls. If I can get things in place, I'll see if I can get Aman Trolled to verify his claim. As for the World Cup roles, I don't have or suspect anyone of having those roles.

Striker voted for me at one point but then self-voted. I think he's either got Jester or is playing by tradition.

Matrim's Dice voted for me as a prod/poke vote, and I would like to offer my rebuttal: I'm not an elim (yes, that is my full rebuttal). I'm not that very good at arguing my case, but I hope that the amount of words in this post is sufficient enough to give you a bit better of a read. I'm also quite aware that Striker has a big lead on the rest of us, so I'm probably safe this round, but if it comes down to a five-way tie I don't want to get voted to the top in the last few hours of the cycle.

Fadran, thanks for the vote. Uh, if you don't mind I would like an even bigger safety margin, acheived on account of your removal of your vote on me.

 

My final conditional order/request for today goes out to Striker, which is: if I get 3 total votes at any point, invent a roleclaim for me (or speculate on my role). Please and thank you.

---------------------------------------

Walin got back to his computer after a long day of being on the computer. He was hoping to see that there would be a thread he could sift through for clues, and he got his wish. More accurately, he bit off more than he could chew, and now struggled to organize the absolute payday of discussion to sort. Walin knew how the quicksort algorithm worked, but he had never created a priority queue (he sluffed that project) or even a balanced binary tree. So he was unequipped to truly sort and sift through this information systematically. He would have to do this heuristically, or as they say, "by [his] gut." He downloaded and compressed the entire discussion; that didn't require any sorting. Next time he was on the 17th Shard server, he knew, there would be twice this much information to go through. Walin sighed. Perhaps he should rethink how seriously he was going to take this. Could the other Sharders see through the impostors' disguises more easily than he could?

----

I award myself 5 roleplay XP.

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

What do people think of Araris’ super early role claim? Would E!Araris do that?

I didn't think anything of it tbh cause Araris claiming to have a porch role seemed NAI to me. Course, at that point I didn't know trolling was a mechanic and it seems like it has higher potential to actually be a real claim. I think it could have been a real claim since Araris (of either alignment) wouldn't know Aman was planning on revealing trolling is actually a thing, and so he'd assume he could get away with a comment like that. I feel like it's more village than elim but it's hard to say when this is two layers deep in hypotheticals anyway  

59 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

shining

I kind of agree, like to me it feels like Shining isn't really putting as much effort in actually playing the game as he usually does. I actually feel the same about Ash, now that I think about it. What about him made you put him in village?

46 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

is too highly specific to be true.

What's that supposed to mean xD Like is that not just the reason it would be true? Occam's Razor and all that jazz.

I might agree with you about Wiz. That's a tomorrow!Mat problem though :D.

33 minutes ago, Walin said:

Matrim's Dice voted for me as a prod/poke vote, and I would like to offer my rebuttal: I'm not an elim (yes, that is my full rebuttal). I'm not that very good at arguing my case, but I hope that the amount of words in this post is sufficient enough to give you a bit better of a read

Few questions--

1. Why does a prod/poke vote deserve a rebuttal, in your opinion? (General question)
2. Why does my vote in particular deserve a rebuttal, since I specifically mentioned how my early negative gut ping was based on false pretenses? (Specific question)
3. If you don't really have a rebuttal at all, why bother posting something pretending to be one? (Question so that I can say 'few' instead of 'couple')

Ironically, I think the amount of words in that post did give me a more solid e read of you. Your post seems self aware in a very elim way to me; specifically the phrases like 'I don't know if it actually exists either' (talking about Aman's claimed role) or the paragraphs of self-analyzing your unvote and the sentences of talking about your hypothetical leading trains.

Quick reads list before I retire for the night (anyone not listed is null) (trying out new adjectives in place of 'mild' or 'light' or 'leaning' since y'all understand how it works regardless of what I say)

More V: Stick, TJ
Less V: Fadran, Orlok, ...Araris?
I Really Don't Know: Striker, AmanHasToGoHere, MaybeFaeShouldGoHere
Less E: Wiz, Fae, Bookwyrm, Tani
More E: Ash, Shining, Walin

I'm having a hard time v reading anyone right now, actually. Which may pose a problem in the future >> Gun-to-head I could probably Null+ or Null- a few more people but off the top of my head there's some rough placements.

Edited January 28, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Steeldancer he/him]

Hm. I'm feeling capricious today. Aman feels like the kind of person who would come up with random role to share in thread. I'm still interested in Archer's thought process on role claiming, but ngl I kind of based that vote on a second hand post and reading the post itself doesn't really give me the same bad vibe. My interest is more piqued by Aman because my role happens to care about dead people, and Im more immediately concerned about a serial killer of any capacity sabotaging the village, particularly when he said he'd be willing to work with the elims. Personally I'd prefer that not happen. 

This has absolutely nothing to do with me being salty I'm not a serial killer. Definitely not. 

[|TJ| he/him]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I actually feel the same about Ash, now that I think about it. What about him made you put him in village?

pure gut from yesterday... though on your prodding, I don't recall any posts from him overnight... i just probably revise but gut says still goodie.

[Channelknight Fadran]

45 minutes ago, Walin said:

Fadran, thanks for the vote. Uh, if you don't mind I would like an even bigger safety margin, acheived on account of your removal of your vote on me.

I'm afraid you're going to have to provide a more significant conditional for that action.

[Walin he/him]

Welp, here's my thought process for my last post, and my subsequent thought process now:

Quote

1: Oh hey I got votes, I should try to get rid of them

2: Matrim voted for me but then expressed that I looked mostly village, but did not remove the vote. Welp, maybe posting will turn that around.

3. I should probably apologize for voting Archer, seemed a little peeved after my vote. Too bad I don't remember what I was thinking; I'll try to retrace my steps.

4. (After posting) Okay, Matrim...reads me as more e!Walin than v!Walin. Welp.

As for your questions, Matrim -- 1, I like having fewer votes so I try to reduce them by explaining myself; 2, you kept the vote after (mostly) retracting your reasoning for it, and it was a vote on me (which I'll always try to rebut, at least in this game); 3, IDK, so I can cross it off my "post task-list" w/o putting forth significant effort.

And Fadran, if it was unclear that was unconditional. If it was clear, and you want me to make it conditional, uh...if it snows in your local region before turnover, please remove your vote.

I think Wiz expressed concern over my desire for votes. It was mostly for fun, a little for playing in-character with my characterization (which is me, and I would do something like this), and most importantly: because I didn't think it would lead to a train. I'm not really scared that it will lead to a train now, either, but if it does I guess I've dug my own grave.

This is my actual last post for the cycle, probably, and even though I should vote I think I won't. I can't read on anyone and I trust everyone else's ability to gut-read more accurately than me by the time the cycle comes close to ending.

Conditional order for the last time: if you feel tired and have the time to rest/go to bed, do so.

---------------

Walin did something rather ordinary, and patted himself on the back for being clever. It was a good day to hunt elims.

--------------

I award myself 0 XP.

 

[Channelknight Fadran]

2 minutes ago, Walin said:

And Fadran, if it was unclear that was unconditional. If it was clear, and you want me to make it conditional, uh...if it snows in your local region before turnover, please remove your vote.

That smells like metagaming.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I haven't really done any big focus posts tonight. Just pointed out a few things Aman has said. And Dannex hasn't said much in the meantime (or maybe I'm just blind).

Edit: hey 3,000 Posts!

Edited January 28, 2023 by Ashbringer

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Thoughts:

1) Too many people are giving far too much credence to Aman’s claim. Parts of it seem wholly unlikely (the number of football related roles in an SE subforum related game, Kas putting a neutral SK-esque role in a blackout). Given at least some is almost certainly fabrication, I’m putting the whole thing down as Aman phishing, and making alignment judgements on that action. I do not consider voting (or otherwise) because of any perceived threat from the role well thought through.

2) Whilst acknowledging that my ability to keep on top of the thread at this stage is limited, I have seen a few players (my recollection has @Channelknight Fadran and @Matrim's Dice) expressing a village belief in Stick for most of the turn so far, which I haven’t seen a strong justification for, and which seems incongruous with D1. I’d be grateful to hear their reasoning for this in as much detail as they can provide.

3)

4 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Hm. I'm feeling capricious today. Aman feels like the kind of person who would come up with random role to share in thread. I'm still interested in Archer's thought process on role claiming, but ngl I kind of based that vote on a second hand post and reading the post itself doesn't really give me the same bad vibe. My interest is more piqued by Aman because my role happens to care about dead people, and Im more immediately concerned about a serial killer of any capacity sabotaging the village, particularly when he said he'd be willing to work with the elims. Personally I'd prefer that not happen. 

This has absolutely nothing to do with me being salty I'm not a serial killer. Definitely not. 

Notwithstanding all I said above about Aman’s claim being one we should pretty much disregard, I’m going to bite on this from Steeldancer.

For one thing, however nonchalant the phrasing, this is obviously very deliberately dropped in, and it would be a shame not to give him the conversation clearly desired.

@Steeldancer, care to elaborate?

[Stick. she/her]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I didn't think anything of it tbh cause Araris claiming to have a porch role seemed NAI to me. Course, at that point I didn't know trolling was a mechanic and it seems like it has higher potential to actually be a real claim. I think it could have been a real claim since Araris (of either alignment) wouldn't know Aman was planning on revealing trolling is actually a thing, and so he'd assume he could get away with a comment like that. I feel like it's more village than elim but it's hard to say when this is two layers deep in hypotheticals anyway  

I'm definitely inclined to believe the claim, but what I'm unsure of is what it means in terms of alignment. @Araris Valerian are you usually pro-claiming D1? 

-------------------------

I have reread the thread. Thank you for your applause. Being on desktop helps. A couple of things:

1. I'm actually liking the contributions from TKN, like this post. Him actually casting a vote D1 is notable, though -  he has previously asserted that he only votes when he's certain of the player's evilness. @The Known Novel why the change in style? It's not bad by any means, but I'd like to understand your thought process anyhow. 

2. Xino and Fadran are probably not teamed 

3. 

19 hours ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Wait...maybe I should roleclaim...

I'm inclined to village-read this because an elim probably wouldn't just throw this out here without a solid plan.

4. I am NOT liking the contributions from Shining. Agree with whoever said that they seem unusually detached/uninterested in game solving. Would maybe join that wagon. 

5. 

17 hours ago, Archer said:

It's weird how no one followed up on Wiz's claim, but they kept offering more details as if they had been asked.

I...think I'm reading Wiz's dispersed role claim as village? Why stagger it out in that manner if elim? E!Wiz would've probably readied a well-crafted post spilling the details all at once? Kind of like Aman's post

6. 

17 hours ago, Archer said:

Feels like a gamble to name 5+ roles and expect us to never realize they're absent from the game. 

 Playing devil's advocate for this but the game is flipless. It's not too unreasonable to expect us to never realise until it's too late.

7.

17 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Also! Troll-role was elim in LG 53. I expect similar to this:

Temptation: Absolutely terrifying with Code. They get into the code and corrupt it. If they target you, your action will do exactly what you didn’t want. You will accidently ban a player instead of protect them. Or you will accidentally reveal your IP address instead of PM them. Or something. And then they will know what and who you are. 

So we can't count on roles to do what they're supposed to.

*Is thinking about what the opposite of creating a 1-1 PM would be*

19 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

And some very interesting things happen if I am trolled

A giant PM with everyone but the two intended recipients 

8. 

17 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

All I’m willing to say about my role is that I like rolls.

Like, dice rolls? 

9. 

15 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Trolling might be a central mechanic

Oooo this is interesting. Are the GMs the Trolls? Is it a randomised mechanic?

10.

11 hours ago, Sart said:

Look I'm just going to do it. Amanuensis. You've made a claim that's impossible to verify without getting immediately shot at. Even if we believe you, you've literally claimed that you are a Serial Killer! Admittedly, you are only intending to go after certain roles, but that still gives you a wide target list. Just by the nature of mafia, you are more likely to hit a Village soccer player than you are an Elim soccer player. You're not helping the thread, and your reveal has become a black hole of discussion. You've done this gambit before, and stayed alive way past your due date, and I'm not going to let you keep this up.

Gut village on this. Unless the elims believe Aman to be a lying villager, exeing a neutral does not help the elim wincon.

11.

11 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

And then the new kid (says I, a new kid) that Wizard is innocent and they don't trust Stick. Out of... nowhere. Wiz, Stick; you got anything to say about that?

Hm not really  I assume Fae is mostly operating out of gut reads, so...

--------------------------

Based on that:

Probably village: Mat, Fadran, Fae, Randby, Wiz
Could be village: Sart, TKN, Archer, Walin, Bookwyrm
Idk: Devo, Orlok, Bip, TJ, xino, Araris
Neutral-claimed: Aman
Could be elim - : Ash, JNV, Striker, Steel
Could be elim + : Shining, Tani, Dannex

That should be everyone.

Edit:

I completely missed that claim from Steel. ._. Flashbacks to MR56 Archer.

Edit 2:

@Archer said something about there being an alignment scanner mechanism on Page 1 - I think the village almost certainly as a role akin to that because otherwise there’s nothing stopping the elims from claiming to have knowledge of alignments/roles. For instance, an elim could easily claim to have a role that receives alignments/roles of each player that dies and they could use that to assert strong influence on the game. Without a village seeker-like role it’s hard to see balance there. 

Edited January 28, 2023 by _Stick_
spelling

[|TJ| he/him]

smh yeah i missed that boldened part of steels claim too. i wanna venture a guess here bcause for mr56, i had plans for a grave digger slash grave robber ish role. someone who can scan the alignment of a dead player. could be dead players role in this game. or something along the lines. i scrapped the role bcause unflippilessness of the game was not permanent and the role would be useless once incinerator was dead. 

[Kasimir he/him]

58 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

@Archer said something about there being an alignment scanner mechanism on Page 1 - I think the village almost certainly as a role akin to that because otherwise there’s nothing stopping the elims from claiming to have knowledge of alignments/roles. For instance, an elim could easily claim to have a role that receives alignments/roles of each player that dies and they could use that to assert strong influence on the game. Without a village seeker-like role it’s hard to see balance there. 

Spoiler

 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

6 hours ago, Walin said:

Welp, here's my thought process for my last post, and my subsequent thought process now:

As for your questions, Matrim -- 1, I like having fewer votes so I try to reduce them by explaining myself; 2, you kept the vote after (mostly) retracting your reasoning for it, and it was a vote on me (which I'll always try to rebut, at least in this game); 3, IDK, so I can cross it off my "post task-list" w/o putting forth significant effort.

And Fadran, if it was unclear that was unconditional. If it was clear, and you want me to make it conditional, uh...if it snows in your local region before turnover, please remove your vote.

I think Wiz expressed concern over my desire for votes. It was mostly for fun, a little for playing in-character with my characterization (which is me, and I would do something like this), and most importantly: because I didn't think it would lead to a train. I'm not really scared that it will lead to a train now, either, but if it does I guess I've dug my own grave.

This is my actual last post for the cycle, probably, and even though I should vote I think I won't. I can't read on anyone and I trust everyone else's ability to gut-read more accurately than me by the time the cycle comes close to ending.

Conditional order for the last time: if you feel tired and have the time to rest/go to bed, do so.

---------------

Walin did something rather ordinary, and patted himself on the back for being clever. It was a good day to hunt elims.

--------------

I award myself 0 XP.

 

Concern that it would do something like kill everyone who voted for you. 

Striker

Wallin

You and Shining feel weird. I feel like there's a cloud of disconnection from the villages troubles. Neutral perhaps, but I feel more evil vibes.

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think you misspelled Kjell.

Anyway, I do really think Wiz is suspicious. I can’t for the life of me remember why right now though.

Oh yeah it came from a crack idea that Aman was faking this and Wiz was claiming a role or something to help verify Aman’s claim. Plus Wiz’s general weirdness.

Anyway, my main thoughts about Aman’s roleclaim are that we have no way to verify it and that it is perfectly reasonable that Aman would claim this regardless of if it’s true. I don’t actually think he’s necessarily elim or village because of it, just don’t think the claim itself is true. Partially because he’s Aman, but mostly because I think the idea he came up with is too highly specific to be true.

I think Wiz is fine personally. Though mostly I would like to see if he really can make PMs first

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

2) Whilst acknowledging that my ability to keep on top of the thread at this stage is limited, I have seen a few players (my recollection has @Channelknight Fadran and @Matrim's Dice) expressing a village belief in Stick for most of the turn so far, which I haven’t seen a strong justification for, and which seems incongruous with D1. I’d be grateful to hear their reasoning for this in as much detail as they can provide.

I second this question.

[Stick. she/her]

And I third it

[|TJ| he/him]

the more mad watcher watches the less she believes in amans claims. forget about too many football roles for less number of players. im more watching the part where he claims to get to stay in the game after achieving his wincon. what is the point of staying in the game as a neutral after achieving wincon? i think this is made up. now goodie made up or baddie made up? because im suspecting the part where he wanted to know which players were affected by trolling. motive - baiting village power roles? hmm hmm? 

also this is nitpicky the part where orlok says he needs more time to analyse sticks second post is making me hum. bcause its not a long post, why need time? add one plus two and its putting the fear of god in me thinking of aman plus orlok team and having terrible flashbacks to mr57 -__-'

also i think sart is goodie, but i cannot recall sart being baddie ever. i dont think theyve been evil since i started playing damn.

striker gut village. 

watcher from porch is being uncharacteristically silent for d1 by his goodie standards so far. @Araris Valerian, any suspicions or reads? I expect goodie!araris to have voted long before now plus to mention suspicion on stick without a vote, again uncharacterism from someone with stab vote trademark motto.

Edited January 28, 2023 by |TJ|