Orlok Tsubodai Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 Let’s run with the counterfactual: Aman actually is the role he claims. In this world, does claiming publicly make sense? I think we can rule out sub-worlds with no eliminators, as a neutral SK with only village targets in a blackout is ridiculous. How does he then expect the eliminator team to respond? We have a neutral kill role with partial role scanning capabilities, who later claims that he’ll act village aligned in thread, and not try to hinder the village. Eliminator concern/antagonism is predictable, and Aman knows this. So why claim? I contend that the world which makes the most sense is one in which Aman is phishing (which is entirely character consistent, and so would like to restate my concern that this phishing attempt is derailing discussion, and largely privatising the benefit of D1 discussion to Aman (for the general case, to get as much out of looking at the responses to phishing as Aman, we have to make the assumption that the claim is phishing, which will always slightly mar the strength of conclusions from it).
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) Yeah, technically I don't know what happens after someone receives a Yellow Card. I just know I receive confirmation of success / failure. If TKN is willing, I could give him a Yellow Card tonight and never again. See if that gives him a penalty kick. ED1T: 6 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: Let’s run with the counterfactual: Aman actually is the role he claims. In this world, does claiming publicly make sense? I think we can rule out sub-worlds with no eliminators, as a neutral SK with only village targets in a blackout is ridiculous. How does he then expect the eliminator team to respond? We have a neutral kill role with partial role scanning capabilities, who later claims that he’ll act village aligned in thread, and not try to hinder the village. Eliminator concern/antagonism is predictable, and Aman knows this. So why claim? I contend that the world which makes the most sense is one in which Aman is phishing (which is entirely character consistent, and so would like to restate my concern that this phishing attempt is derailing discussion, and largely privatising the benefit of D1 discussion to Aman (for the general case, to get as much out of looking at the responses to phishing as Aman, we have to make the assumption that the claim is phishing, which will always slightly mar the strength of conclusions from it). If PMs were open, this is when I'd send you one In the interest of clearing up some misinformation, I completely made up the Captain role. Goalkeeper, Striker, and Midfielder are real. I wanted at least one fake option to see if anyone claimed it. A Midfielder did, tho, so /shrug Edited January 28, 2023 by Amanuensis
Stick. she/her Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: Let’s run with the counterfactual: Aman actually is the role he claims. In this world, does claiming publicly make sense? I think we can rule out sub-worlds with no eliminators, as a neutral SK with only village targets in a blackout is ridiculous. How does he then expect the eliminator team to respond? We have a neutral kill role with partial role scanning capabilities, who later claims that he’ll act village aligned in thread, and not try to hinder the village. Eliminator concern/antagonism is predictable, and Aman knows this. So why claim? I contend that the world which makes the most sense is one in which Aman is phishing (which is entirely character consistent, and so would like to restate my concern that this phishing attempt is derailing discussion, and largely privatising the benefit of D1 discussion to Aman (for the general case, to get as much out of looking at the responses to phishing as Aman, we have to make the assumption that the claim is phishing, which will always slightly mar the strength of conclusions from it). Yeah one of my concerns with the claim was why do it in the first place when people are clearly comfortable just claiming roles unprovoked - they won't do it now that they know they're being hunted. It would've been easier to sit back and let them come. Edit: Probably village: Mat, Fadran, Fae, Randby, Wiz Could be village: Sart, TKN, Archer, Walin, Araris, Shining, Steel Idk: Devo, Orlok, Bip, TJ, xino, Bookwyrm Neutral-claimed: Aman Could be elim - : Ash, JNV, Striker Could be elim + : Tani, Dannex Edited January 28, 2023 by _Stick_
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, _Stick_ said: Yeah one of my concerns with the claim was why do it in the first place when people are clearly comfortable just claiming roles unprovoked - they won't do it now that they know they're being hunted. It would've been easier to sit back and let them come. I believe in a good, fair sport, and that requires my potential prey knowing about their potential predator. Also, Neutral or not, I value sharing information with the village. I will admit a few details have been fudged, but nothing worse than this, if you missed it: 14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: If PMs were open, this is when I'd send you one In the interest of clearing up some misinformation, I completely made up the Captain role. Goalkeeper, Striker, and Midfielder are real. I wanted at least one fake option to see if anyone claimed it. A Midfielder did, tho, so /shrug
Mat he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 Oookay three more pages is cool Skimmed them all and it just seems like more Aman discussion and role thoughts, yeah? Idk if I have anything to add which is good since I’m on break and don’t have time to add anything. I will say though that for as much as Orlok is saying Aman is soaking up too much discussion and it’s bad, he hasn’t really done much but focus on Aman. Which I suppose could prove his point but it’s the same kind of deal that I think the Striker train was partially based on. Will be back in twoish hours. I would like less than that amount of new pages, please :3
Stick. she/her Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I believe in a good, fair sport, and that requires my potential prey knowing about their potential predator. Also, Neutral or not, I value sharing information with the village. I will admit a few details have been fudged, but nothing worse than this, if you missed it: That's fair enough. Wait why am I back to discussing Aman's role- >.< No more! Especially if people think it's derailing discussion. What I got off xino's posts is that they have posted a reasonable amount with no substance. Same with regards to JNV. Xino is probably not teamed with Bookwyrm though. Dannex and Tani have only made a single post each but remain suspicious. Ash feels different this game, my gut says bad. Bookwyrm has both good and bad points so they are probably a solid null. Spoiler xino's first two posts are flavour-related posts Third post places a joke vote on Wiz Fourth post celebrates Archer's joke PM role claim and includes some more banter Fifth and sixth posts are also just NAI comments on quokkas and usernames Seventh post is a vote count Eighth post is again just NAI comments Ninth post congratulates Striker and Bip Tenth and eleventh posts again NAI exchange of comments Twelfth post is a second vote count Thirteenth post is xino's FIRST GAME RELATED post - a comment doubting the existence of elims Fourteenth post expresses doubt wrt Aman's claim since it doesn't line up with the flavour, asks Wiz for a PM, and votes Bookwyrm Fifteenth post tells Fadran that they didn't do a very good job of defending themself. This was their last post and it can be found on page 9, and it's been more than 24 hours since they've posted. I am thinking also of Kas' famous chart illustrating xino's activity levels as elim vs village. Probably village: Mat, Fadran, Fae, Randby, Wiz Could be village: Sart, TKN, Archer, Walin, Araris, Shining, Steel Idk: Devo, Orlok, Bip, TJ, Bookwyrm Neutral-claimed: Aman Could be elim - : Ash, JNV, Striker, xino Could be elim + : Tani, Dannex
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) Removing my fake Captain role-- Football Role Family: Referee, Goalkeeper(s), Striker(s), x Midfielders Forum Role Family: RPer(s), PM Spider(s), ???, + Steeldancer's claim, which I reckon is in the Forum Role Family, but could be a third family we don't know about. I'm sure if Steel's role does exist, there will be multiple of them too Edited January 28, 2023 by Amanuensis
Shining Silhouette he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Will be back in twoish hours. I would like less than that amount of new pages, please :3 Spoiler Quickly, everyone! 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: In the interest of clearing up some misinformation, I completely made up the Captain role. Goalkeeper, Striker, and Midfielder are real. I wanted at least one fake option to see if anyone claimed it. A Midfielder did, tho, so /shrug I feel like there might be at least one more layer here.
Stick. she/her Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 Xinoeph I will be back right before rollover
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) StrikerEZ (4): Araris Valerian, StrikerEZ, Shining Silhouette The Bookwyrm (3): xinoehp512, The Wandering Wizard, Adavantos Walin (2): Channelknight Fadran, Matrim's Dice, Adavantos (2): Sart, Steeldancer The Wandering Wizard (2): Archer, Tani xinoehp512 (2): The Bookwyrm, Stick Shining Silhouette (1): TJ Archer (1): Devotary of Spontaneity Channelknight Fadran (1): The Known Novel Danex (1): Ashbringer Stick (1): Orlok Tsubodai ED1T: Curious if any of @|TJ|, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @The Known Novel, @Ashbringer, @Orlok Tsubodai want to get it on the action Edited January 28, 2023 by Amanuensis
Ashbringer he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 I'm working on things. Idk what I think about the attention from Fadran decreasing, but I don't necessarily E-read them. Also I think Striker is a Striker which leaves me curious. But we have some time. I still like Dannex as an option.
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Also I think Striker is a Striker which leaves me curious. I have been nursing a theory his extreme reaction was a smokescreen for him being a Football role like Striker. Have been thinking of Yellow Carding him tonight if he's not executed ED1T: 2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Also I think Striker is a Striker which leaves me curious. Lmao. Balls "roll". I get it Edited January 28, 2023 by Amanuensis
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 33 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: StrikerEZ (4): Araris Valerian, StrikerEZ, Shining Silhouette The Bookwyrm (3): xinoehp512, The Wandering Wizard, Adavantos Walin (2): Channelknight Fadran, Matrim's Dice, Adavantos (2): Sart, Steeldancer The Wandering Wizard (2): Archer, Tani xinoehp512 (2): The Bookwyrm, Stick Shining Silhouette (1): TJ Archer (1): Devotary of Spontaneity Channelknight Fadran (1): The Known Novel Danex (1): Ashbringer Stick (1): Orlok Tsubodai ED1T: Curious if any of @|TJ|, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @The Known Novel, @Ashbringer, @Orlok Tsubodai want to get it on the action Not sure what you mean there. If I change my vote, which I very well might, I'm looking towards Wiz because... I forgot. Might just unvote and let it play out.
Mat he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, The Known Novel said: Not sure what you mean there. If I change my vote, which I very well might, I'm looking towards Wiz because... I forgot. Might just unvote and let it play out. Aman’s point I think is that right now there’s no difference between unvoting and not unvoting If Wiz becomes a main contender I’m really gonna actually have to iso him aren’t I I’ll see about that, in half an hour
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) What do we reckon the elim distancing strategy could be? Any different from a regular game? More prone to bus or less? Edited January 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
Mat he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: What do we reckon the elim distancing strategy could be? Any different from a regular game? More prone to bus or less? Probably less, yeah? Since there’s no immediate credit gained from doing so. Kind of a moot point to decide on though tbh
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 Not really looking to decide on anything, just get perspectives
Biplet she/her Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 Me, at a wedding: oh I’ll catch up on thread! Can’t be that many more than I last saw thread: 15 new pages
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Biplet said: Me, at a wedding: oh I’ll catch up on thread! Can’t be that many more than I last saw thread: 15 new pages Sorry Looking forward to your eventual input, though! Edited January 29, 2023 by Amanuensis 1
StrikerEZ he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 It is with extreme regret that I must switch my vote from Striker to Walin. Also wow you guys read way too much into my rolls comment. I was just saying I like bread rolls lmao Also I accidentally hit the spoiler button and I can’t get rid of this. So that’s cool. Spoiler
Ashbringer he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 Spoiler Ashbringer: (Dannnnnex - Poke/Sus Vote) (Aman - Slight Sus) Wizard: (Aman - Poke Vote) (Fadran - Sus Vote) (Fadran - Null, Striker - Sus Vote) (Walin - Sus Vote) (Stick - Good) (Bookwyrm - Sus Vote) Steeldancer: (Striker - Potential Sus Vote) (Archer - Sus Vote) (Aman - Sus/Fear Vote) Fadran: (Matrim - Poke Vote) (Biplet - ? Vote) (Striker - ?? Vote) (Walin - Requested by Walin Vote) (Aman - Slight Sus) (Ash - Slight Good) (Stick - Good) Striker: (Aman - Sus, Wiz - Sus) (Striker - Self Vote) (Walin - Sus/Preservation Vote) xino: (Wizard - Poke Vote) (Aman - Sus, Fadran - I think Sus) (Bookwyrm - Sus) JNV: (Fadran - Slight Sus) Matrim: (Wizard - Poke Vote) (Slight Neutral) (Tani - Sus Vote) (Fadran - Sus Vote) (Bookwyrm - Sus, Fadran - Slight Sus, Wizard - Slight Sus) (Fae - Sus Vote) (Fadran - Slight Sus) (Fadran - Slight Null, Archer - Null) (Walin - Sus Vote) (Striker - Null / Jester) (Stick - Good, TJ - Good, Fadran - Slight Good, Orlock - Slight Good, Araris - Slight Good, Striker - Null, Fae - Slight Sus, Wizard - Slight Sus, Bookwyrm - Slight Sus, Tani - Slight Sus, Shining - Sus, Ash - Sus, Walin - Sus) (Ash - Slight Sus, Stick - Slight Sus) Biplet: Araris / Metal: (Striker - Poke Vote) (Stick - Sus) Devotary: (Archer - Potential Sus Vote) Aman / Ada: (Orlok - Poke Vote) (Stick - Slight Sus) (Shining - ? Vote) (Stick - Vote) (Fadran - Slight Null, Archer - Slight Good, Stick - Slight Sus) (Striker - Sus Vote) (Striker - Null / Jester) (Stick - Slight Sus) (Bookwyrm - Sus Vote) TKN: (Fadran - Potential Sus Vote) Bookwyrm: (Fae - Poke Vote) (Wiz - Slight Null) (Devotary - Poke? Vote) (Xino - Sus/Retaliation Vote) Tani: (Wizard - ? Vote) Archer: (xino - Poke Vote) (TJ - Sus Vote) (Wizard - Slight Sus, Bookwyrm - Slight Sus, Walin - Sus) (RandBy - Good) (Wizard - Sus Vote) Walin: (Archer - Potential Sus Vote) (Archer - Null) TJ: (JNV - Poke Vote) (Fadran - Sus Vote) (Ash, Aman - Slight Good) (Ash - Good, RandBy - Good, Mat - Slight Good, Araris - Slight Good, JNV - Sus, Fadran - Sus, Shining - Sus) (Shining - Sus Vote) (Aman - Slight Sus, Orlok - Slight Sus, Sart - Good, Striker - Good, Araris - Slight Sus) Dannex: Stick: (Dannex - Potential Sus Vote) (Fadran - Good) (Fadran - Slight Sus) (Bookwyrm - Slight Sus) (Wizard - Sus Vote) (RandBy - Sus) (Fadran - Not Yet, Bookwyrm - Not Yet) (Tani - Sus Vote) (RandBy - Slight Good) (Fadran - Good, Fae - Good, RandBy - Good, Bookwyrm - Good) (Tani - Sus, Striker - Slight Sus) (Matrim - Good, Fadran - Good, Fae - Good, RandBy - Good, Wiz - Good, Sart - Slight Good, TKN - Slight Good, Archer - Slight Good, Walin - Slight Good, Bookwyrm - Slight Good, Ash - Slight Sus, JNV - Slight Sus, Striker - Slight Sus, Steel - Slight Sus, Shining - Sus, Tani - Sus, Dannex - Sus) (Shining - Sus Vote) (TKN - Slight Sus) (Striker - Sus Vote) (Matrim - Good, Fadran - Good, Fae - Good, RandBy - Good, Wiz - Good, Sart - Slight Good, TKN - Slight Good, Archer - Slight Good, Walin - Slight Good, Steel - Slight Good, Araris - Slight Good, Shining - Slight Good, Bookwyrm - Null, Ash - Slight Sus, JNV - Slight Sus, Striker - Slight Sus, Tani - Sus, Dannex - Sus) (xino - Slight Sus) (xino - Sus Vote) Orlok: (Stick - Sus Vote) (Araris - Good) (Stick - Sus, Steel - Slight Sus) RandBy: (Aman - Sus) Sart: (Aman - Sus Vote) Shining: (Aman - Slight Sus) (Wiz - Slight Good) (Striker - Sus, Walin - Slight Good) (Striker - Sus Vote) Fae: (Wizard - Good, Stick - Sus) (Wizard - Good, Bookwyrm - Slight Sus) Haven't done one of these in a while... but I haven't needed to catch up in a while. Fadran, Shining, Bookwyrm(?) and Wiz(?) have all sort-of softed Neutral (Wiz more by immediately assuming all World Cuppers are Neutral, which is interesting.) TKN claimed vanilla, then claimed Midfielder after Aman said the first Footballer claimant would get a free pass. Wiz claimed PM Spider after Stick supposed PM Spider as a role. (Then again, I guessed Striker earlier... and penalty kicks... and yes Stick guessed I was Santa Klaus in MR56) Araris claimed at least partially a role D1. That does feel strange to me. Nothing Biplet or Dannex said stuck with me - I think Dannex just posted the once, while Bip posted a few times and has claimed busyness. It's now a 3-way tie between Striker, Bookwyrm, and Walin, yes? I could be convinced to go for Walin. Shining, Fadran, or Dannex I also like. Striker, Wiz, Aman not so much. Xino is what happened last time and it didn't go well. And can people please Green Out their votes if they change their vote, that might be what's throwing off the tallybot so much and it makes my brain hurt. And run run run
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) With Wiz being a member of the Forum Role Family (“PM Spider”), I could see him being confused about the Footballers ED1T: StrikerEZ (2): Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette The Bookwyrm (3): xinoehp512, The Wandering Wizard, Adavantos Walin (3): Channelknight Fadran, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ Adavantos (2): Sart, Steeldancer The Wandering Wizard (2): Archer, Tani xinoehp512 (2): The Bookwyrm, Stick Shining Silhouette (1): TJ Archer (1): Devotary of Spontaneity Channelknight Fadran (1): The Known Novel Danex (1): Ashbringer Stick (1): Orlok Tsubodai Edited January 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
Ashbringer he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: With Wiz being a member of the Forum Role Family, I could see him being confused about the Footballers Perhaps, but it doesn't make sense for there to be another Neutral Faction hunted by another specific Neutral, especially with that specific Neutral claiming D1... that and his claimed role doesn't seem to make that much sense. Granted, I'm not expecting most roles to make sense, but PM Spider who only has made 3 PMs by D6? Ouch. I don't want to exe Wiz, but I'm keeping an eye, I guess.
Amanuensis he/him Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Perhaps, but it doesn't make sense for there to be another Neutral Faction hunted by another specific Neutral, especially with that specific Neutral claiming D1... that and his claimed role doesn't seem to make that much sense. Granted, I'm not expecting most roles to make sense, but PM Spider who only has made 3 PMs by D6? Ouch. I don't want to exe Wiz, but I'm keeping an eye, I guess. Fair. He implied he has a second role he can use on even nights, so I’m hoping to learn more about that if he PMs me. Will reevaluate as necessary but I lean Village for now. Edited January 29, 2023 by Amanuensis Minor corrections + second line
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